Earl Weaver Makes a Comeback?

The Toronto Blue Jays are experimenting with a four-man pitching rotation, the first time a Major League Baseball team has flouted the five-man conventional wisdom since probably 1995, according to numbers-minded baseball analyst Rob Neyer. The move comes just nine months after stat-head Rany Jazayerli authored a wave-making study that declared "the five-man rotation is a failure." More evidence (along with the publication of Michael Lewis' Billy Beane bio Moneyball) that 2003 will be the breakthrough year for the long-marginalized 25-year-old Sabermetric Revolution? Well, it will help if the Blue Jays' four-man rotation fares better than the Red Sox's bullpen by committee.

Comments

[Anonymous]

what sport is this referring to? these teams are not in the NFL, NHL or NBA!

[Grady Little]

The problem with the Red Sox's bullpen by committee isn't that's BY committee, it's the COMMITTEE.

Those pitchers would fare poorly no matter how the bullpen was managed. That's a common misconception, one that will continue to keep baseball simpletons from understanding the true beauty of Sabermetrics.

[Luca Brasi]

I'm glad Bill James has finally landed a job with a major league team, too bad it wasn't with the Yankees.

[david f]

THE CUBS ARE STILL IN FIRST (for now)!!!!

oh yeah!!!!!

(just to inject some non-east coast into the discussion, of course)

cheers!
drf

[Plutarck]

A cynic might say that the owners and manageres wish to choose a four man team, instead of a five man team, because paying four people is cheaper than five people.

But I'm just firing from the hip here, having little to no idea what I'm talking about.

[Marc]

Well, as the much-maligned Mr. Little mentioned above, it's the players who are driving these decisions, not Baseball Prospectus writers. At most, the (great) stat work by Jayazerli, McCracken et al expands people's concept of a reasonable solution. But even there, it's not that long ago that Earl Weaver used a four man rotation - does Earl or Rany deserves the credit for this move?
The bottom line is that you don't need a sabermetrician to tell you that the 4 and 5 starters for Toronto stink. Coupled with the perceived failure of Bill James reasonable 'Bullpen by Committee' experiment, and I can't think it'll be a breakthrough year for Sabermetrics.

[david f]

hey Jim N,

yup..... but i like 1860 munich best, so it's like the cubbies or indians all over again...

hey Lefty -- do you remember when the Cards' announcer sang the seventh at wrigley "for the rivalry" and did the "root, root, root for the Cardnials" instead of "cubbies"? that blew the roof off here...

cheers and enjoy!
drf

[Jim N]

Hehheh. I'm guessing you aren't gonna be bragging much today, are you, david?

[Jim N]

Lefty, what's wrong with you? The Cards are America's team. Don't you hate America? Hehheh.

[Douglas Fletcher]

I thought baseball teams needed a crusty old guy as the manager to run things and remember how stupid everyone else is. Is that accounted for in sabermetrics?

I read a 'historical' baseball book by Bill James and I must say it was a hell of a lot more interesting than anything about baseball I've read by George F. Will.

[Lefty]

Don Zimmer is probably the crustiest old character in history. One look at him and you think "baseball!"

A couple of days ago he lit into Steinbrenner for blaming Torre for the Yankees recent bad patch. It was beautiful. You could tell he didn't give a flip if he got fired over it.

[BoSox Nation]

As w/ the Sox bullpen by committee, it's not the idea that matters but the personnel. How bad is your rotation when you WANT to see Mark Hendrickson and Kelvim Escobar pitching 20% more often.

[joe]

Pedro is far too fragile to pitch that often.

[david f]

morning Jim N!

*grin*. yeah. there are sure a ton of questions about our big star. however, if he's proven to have cheated more than this time, i sure don't want to win that way. i sure don't want a star to have the "hand of god" a la maradona. if this was, somehow, someway an honest mistake, i'll listen to the facts. right now, i'm very disappointed... and i'm still a cubbies fan. and you just wait... UNTIL NEXT YEAR. 🙂

sigh,
drf

[Lefty]

Cardinals rule!!

And Big Mac got those muscles legitimately.

sigh.

[david f]

hey lefty.

wait a sec. what's this Cards stuff?

does anybody know why such a powerful hitter would need a corked bat? even in BP?

hey -- imagine what sammy or mark would do in the homerdome...

drf

[Lefty]

I grew up in Missouri - 15 years in St. Louis. Cubbies and Cards are the best rivalry west of NY - Boston.

What's with all the busted bats now, anyway? I've read about a maple bat maker that's making it's way in (I think Bonds uses it) that's a little better.

http://www.tcpalm.com/tcp/baseball/article/0,1651,TCP_1057_2003741,00.html

Cheers!

[Jim N]

Ah, David, a soccer fan as well?