Polls close at 7 p.m. in the first Democratic primary in the South. A Barack Obama loss here would be more of a shock than his win in Iowa or loss in New Hampshire. In the doldrums of last summer and autumn, when national polls showed Clinton with a 30-point lead, Obama occasionally led here. In Nevada, Obama won more than 80 percent of the black vote: For him to lose here he'd need to shed more than a third of that. We've been through way too many predictions of candidate doom in this race but, seriously, an Obama loss here would mean a total collapse and hint at a coming cross-demographic slaughter on Feb. 5.
Results will be here.
As a refresher, the 2004 primary results:
1. John Edwards: 44.9 percent, with 37 percent of the black vote.
2. John Kerry: 30.3 percent, with 34 percent of the black vote.
3. Al Sharpton: 9.7 percent, with 17 percent of the black vote.
4. Wesley Clark: 7.2 percent
5. Howard Dean: 4.7 percent
6. Joe Lieberman: 2.4 percent
Here is demographic data for the state and here are 2004 results maps. Counties to watch:
- Richland, 47 percent black and most of that in the city of Columbia. It cast around 34,000 votes in 2004 and went only 37 percent for Edwards. If it doesn't go big for Obama, he's in trouble.
- Calhoun, the small county just south of Richland, where the vote totals in 2004 mirrored the votes in the rest of the state.
- Oconee, a 90 percent white county on the Georgia border, where Edwards scored a dominating 69 percent in 2004. It only cast around 5,500 votes that year, but the turnout and margin will tell how much white voters are turning out this time, and who for.
For this year, I'm thinking about 50 percent of the electorate will be black and 15 percent will be 18-29. Less than that means Obama's turnout machine is underperforming.
1. Barack Obama (40 percent). His lead grew to the high/mid-teens after Iowa. After two consecutive losses he's down to an average 11 point lead. The only sign of true, palm-sweating danger has appeared in a Thursday Zogby poll that showed him only 5 up over Clinton. If that was true, and momentum was with the two other candidates, the winner will pull out a 1 or 2 percent victory and might not be Obama. Someone else will have to predict that incredible upset, though: I think Obama has a floor of 37 percent and he'll get a boost from a solid win.
2. Hillary Clinton (33 percent). We won't know until her advisers wrap this up and write their books, but I feel like Clinton's used this primary, which she never expected to win (certainly not post-Iowa), as a petri dish for anti-Obama attacks. A close loss to a muddied Obama would be acceptable. A wide loss—bigger than the 9-point Iowa loss—would be a problem. A third-place finish would be a disaster, even if Obama only wins that narrowly.
3. John Edwards (26 percent). A second-place finish would cobble together a plurality of the white vote and a good chunk—15 percent at least—of the black vote. I simply don't think Edwards can achieve that, but the poisonous Clinton-Obama fight has been good for him, and he'll do well enough to stay in until Feb. 5. Then again, no one has gone broke underestimating John Edwards this year.
4. Others (<1 percent). Gravelmania! (Just kidding. He's not on the ballot.)
UPDATE 6:25: I'm not liveblogging, but before I head out I see that more than half of voters were black and 57 percent of all voters said Bill Clinton's campaigning influenced their vote. Obama's going to win, and it'll be interesting to see what the Bill effect was.
The South Carolina Democratic Primary Thread
Comments to "The South Carolina Democratic Primary Thread":
Cesar | January 26, 2008, 5:07pm | #
Prediction:Obama wins by 9 points or less, Hillary skilfully portrays it as a "close defeat!"
joe | January 26, 2008, 5:12pm | #
Prediction:Double-digit win for Obama
Edwards finishes closer than 6 points to HIllary, and maybe catches her.
Ali | January 26, 2008, 5:16pm | #
Obama wins by 9 points or less, Hillary skilfully portrays it as a "close defeat!"
A tear here and there may not hurt. In fact, it would be her way to show her humanity and inner spirit.
Plant Immigration Rights Supporter | January 26, 2008, 5:19pm | #
"it would be her way to show her humanity"Hillary has humanity?
Have you guys heard that the person who asked her the question that made HRC cry in NH turned out to be an Obama supporter who voted for him. She said that she was touched by HRC, but it was only Obama who made her (the voter not HRC) truly cry from the gut because he touched her heart? She was on NPR the other.
shoooot! add not ass. My keyboard is having thoughts of its own :-)
stephen the goldberger | January 26, 2008, 5:30pm | #
I agree with Cesar. Obama's gonna win, but it won't be by ten points. The pundits will be talking about how "Hillary managed to close the gap" and she'll come out with the momentum.Neu Mejican | January 26, 2008, 5:31pm | #
She was on NPR the other Ass day?Neu Mejican | January 26, 2008, 5:35pm | #
The full quote, of course...Add not ass for it distracts from your contemplation of the Holy.
Neu Mejican | January 26, 2008, 5:37pm | #
Breaking the commandment...http://www.stupidcollege.com/Images/Sexy_Ass_Part_3.jpg
joe | January 26, 2008, 5:40pm | #
Ali wants to touch Hillary's ass. A-HA! We KNEW you lusted after our whorish infidels women!I keed, I keed.
The pundits will be talking about how "Hillary managed to close the gap" and she'll come out with the momentum.
Or, it she does lose big, they will say that it just shows that the state was never in play, and doesn't tell us anything.
Neu Mejican | January 26, 2008, 5:41pm | #
I was surprised at the poor box office for Sexy Ass pt. 3 given the wide appeal of Sexy Ass pt. 2Ali | January 26, 2008, 5:43pm | #
Darn! Enough, now, OK? LOL!Back to the elections kids, back to the elections, please!
If prolefeed or J sub were around, they'd have a field day with my typo.
Neu Mejican | January 26, 2008, 5:43pm | #
Kissing ass?http://www.economist.com/images/20070505/1807US1.jpg
Ali | January 26, 2008, 5:46pm | #
Or should I have said:If prolefeed or J sub were around, they'd have a field ass day with my typo.
Combining HRC and ass in the same thread is not a wise idea. It is an automatic thread-killer.
Neu Mejican | January 26, 2008, 5:49pm | #
I can't resist the temptation to add more ass to this thread...http://www.jonco48.com/blog/jack_20ass.jpg
Ali | January 26, 2008, 5:53pm | #
I believe that is "field day with your ass."I guess I have to agree on that one. :-)
Ayn_Randian | January 26, 2008, 6:01pm | #
I still say we're on the fast track to a Mitt Romney presidency.Bumper sticker idea:
"HRC - Increasing health CHOICE by using FORCE since 1992!"
Actually, Ali, "ass day" is a perfect way to describe today in SC. ;)
Unintended consequences in action. But I guess you all have to thank me for making this difficult day of SC elections a little bit less painful.
Neu Mejican | January 26, 2008, 6:12pm | #
Combining HRC and ass in the same thread is not a wise idea.http://images.huffingtonpost.com/2007-10-11-Radaraimshighhitsit-thumb.jpg
Grand Chalupa | January 26, 2008, 6:13pm | #
Now, Allah knows I'm not a fan of Hillary Clinton, but I'm watching MSNBC here and it seems that 3 out of 4 blacks in South Carolina think Hillary Clinton played the race card. The pundits here are talking about how this will hurt Hillary on Super Tuesday. Every supposed racist thing Billary have said seems to me things that wouldn't make anyone think twice if Obama were white. But then again, maybe I, in Obama's words, lack empathy.If you thought it was tough to attack the president when it would "hurt the morale of the troops", wait till every criticism of the commander-in-chief gets one branded "racist".
I have seen that last picture before. One of my favorites from last year!
Ayn_Randian | January 26, 2008, 6:17pm | #
Around my place, every day is ass day...Wow.
Do you live in a bath house or something?
Chalupa - shut up.
Cesar | January 26, 2008, 6:18pm | #
Chalupa, just get the fuck off the internet.AR, why do you think Romney will win just not the nomination but the White House?
Neu Mejican | January 26, 2008, 6:21pm | #
Ayn Randian,No bath house.
Just one of the benefits of having a sexy latina wife.
;)
Of course, many would say that my comment was a reflection of my personality more than anything else.
Better to be a smart ass than a dumb ass I always say.
Beltway Libertarian | January 26, 2008, 6:28pm | #
Gather around everybody, somebody said something that might possibly not flatter the niggers.Ali | January 26, 2008, 6:29pm | #
Better to be a smart ass than a dumb ass I always say.And who is the latter this time around may I ask? Just remember that what goes around comes around.
Now I can't get the word "ass" out of my head --"what goes around, comes around"... "around".... "around" and "ass"... and "HRC"... grrrr.
Neu Mejican | January 26, 2008, 6:34pm | #
Grande C,wouldn't make anyone think twice if Obama were white
Are you talking about this?
Bill Clinton this week also suggested that his wife may lose Saturday's primary because many black voters will side with Obama. The unusually direct comment on the possible role of race in the election was in keeping with the Clintons' bid to portray Obama as the clear favorite, thereby lessening the potential fallout if it proves true.
Voting for president along racial and gender lines "is understandable, because people are proud when someone who they identify with emerges for the first time," the former president told a Charleston audience.
The Hillary Clinton Coming Race War Report | January 26, 2008, 6:34pm | #
We Progressives practice identity politics so Whites and women are traitors if they vote for that fine, clean cut, young, articulate African-American man.I alone have the experience and intelligence to stand up to the Rightwing Republican attack Machine. Imagine what they would do to a poor Islamic cocaine dealing slum lord.
Click 'n' Learn | January 26, 2008, 6:35pm | #
I'm not really following the horserace side of things, prefering to concentrate on policy and such. You know, the things that really matter.However, I'd like to point out that CNN has a really neat map. John King just demonstrated it, and it's really, really cool. Boing Boing cool! It can zoom in and zoom out, and show the totals in counties and everything neat like that.
Gotta run, Soledad is saying something important, I can tell.
Ali | January 26, 2008, 6:37pm | #
Gotta run, Soledad is saying something important, I can tell.Who cares about what she says? ;-)
Click 'n' Learn | January 26, 2008, 6:38pm | #
CNN has TVs with pie charts! Not only that, but some "bird" is now dragging pictures around on a big virtual desktop. She can drag them, zoom in and out, and everything.And, all Reason readers get is Dave Weigel.
Neu Mejican | January 26, 2008, 6:38pm | #
Ali,I'll leave it up to the rest of the thread to decide who is dubbed dumb ass.
A round ass...comes around?
Nice.
Radley Balko | January 26, 2008, 6:40pm | #
Grand Chalupa/"Beltway Libertarian" --Knock off the racist crap or find yourself another forum.
Neu Mejican | January 26, 2008, 6:43pm | #
Ali,I have known dumb asses.
I have worked with dumb asses...
You, my friend, are no dumb ass.
Ayn_Randian | January 26, 2008, 6:48pm | #
AR, why do you think Romney will win just not the nomination but the White House?He's the only governor in the race; the only one with executive experience in the race, really.
It's just that simple. history backs me up.
FWIW, I don't have any special insight or anything...I just decided to go with what has been shown to work for the past 45 years or so.
SIV | January 26, 2008, 6:51pm | #
He's the only governor in the race; the only one with executive experience in the race, really.
Huckabee is a Governor.
Neu Mejican | January 26, 2008, 6:52pm | #
Let's make that more complete...Ali, I served with Jack
Happy Jack | January 26, 2008, 6:53pm | #
But I guess you all have to thank me for making this difficult day of SC elections a little bit less painful.Am I to assume you brought some Preparation H?
Neu Mejican | January 26, 2008, 6:54pm | #
AsstronomicalNeu Mejican | January 26, 2008, 6:54pm | #
Wearing an Asscot?
Neu Mejican | January 26, 2008, 6:55pm | #
You are way "behind" the curve JsubD...Ayn_Randian | January 26, 2008, 7:00pm | #
Huckabee is a Governor.oof. My fault. You're right.
I'm just hoping that yokely populist goes away soon.
joe | January 26, 2008, 7:01pm | #
MSNBC projected Obama the winner the moment the clock struck 7.LoL.
J sub D | January 26, 2008, 7:01pm | #
He's the only governor in the race; the only one with executive experience in the race, really.The operative words are "in the race." Huckabee's joke campaignis over in 10 days.Huckabee is a Governor.
Good, Obama is projected to win. How the hell do they do that? Oh, exit polling. Well, why do we have elections if exit polling is all what we need? Wouldn't it just be nice to do stay-at-home-polling-based-elections?
joe | January 26, 2008, 7:04pm | #
I project J sub D's second link the winner over his first.Except in Tijuana, where the two are remarkably close.
J sub D- There are only a handful of asses this elections cycle: HRC, RG, JE, JM, MH and MR. Yes, MR is also an ass. A smarter one, though.
J sub D | January 26, 2008, 7:04pm | #
You are way "behind" the curve JsubD...Yeah, I got here late. Didn't even get to jump on Chalupa. You guys have all the fun. :-(
Sparky | January 26, 2008, 7:04pm | #
I just saw this at politico.com; sorry if it's old news here:-----
Bill Clinton doing McCain no favors
Stumping for his wife in South Carolina, Bill Clinton said Hillary and McCain got along just famously.
"She and John McCain are very close," Clinton said, according to CNN. "They always laugh that if they wound up being the nominees of their party, it would be the most civilized election in American history, and they're afraid they'd put the voters to sleep because they like and respect each other."
-----
Is that the incredibly transparent attempt it appears to be to associate McCain w/ Hillary in order to hurt him in the primaries, because Bill's afraid that in the general election McCain would kick her...uh...ass?
Brian Courts | January 26, 2008, 7:05pm | #
Good, Obama is projected to win. How the hell do they do that? Oh, exit polling. Well, why do we have elections if exit polling is all what we need?Um... perhaps because it there were no elections there would be nobody exiting the voting booths to poll? I'm not sure I understand your complaint here.
crimethink | January 26, 2008, 7:05pm | #
CNN has an exit poll page up, but it's just blank. Apparently, 61% of voters in the primary were women. According to Bubba, that should be good for Hillary, right? ;-)Ali | January 26, 2008, 7:07pm | #
How awfully sweet, as far as laughing at the stupid media is concerned, it would be if Obama turns out not the winner.How awfully bitter, as far as I am concerned, it would be if Obama turns out not the winner.
Ayn_Randian | January 26, 2008, 7:08pm | #
Wouldn't it just be nice to do stay-at-home-polling-based-elections?What about online voting? Hm?
That's a neat idea, to a certain extent...although each vote would need to print somewhere so we had a paper trail.
Ali | January 26, 2008, 7:10pm | #
I think that was the last post Chalupa will ever make here.This place would be a much better place if that happens.
Click 'n' Learn | January 26, 2008, 7:11pm | #
CNN is my sworn enemy.Someone who has the capability should record this and isolate Carl Bernstein just sitting and waiting there in the background.
AR- I think Internet-based voting, if the technology is available, would be a really bad idea.
J sub D | January 26, 2008, 7:12pm | #
The question now, is, will Clinton come in third?For those of you who have a theistic inclination, feel free to pray for that result. I will just hope like hell that HRC is a show.
Ayn_Randian | January 26, 2008, 7:14pm | #
AR- I think Internet-based voting, if the technology is available, would be a really bad idea.Well, of course, I'm going to ask "why"?
we CAN do so many other "important" things that way.
Brian Courts | January 26, 2008, 7:15pm | #
Brian, I was just being sarcastic.I got the sarcasm, I just didn't understand what point of it was.
At any rate the political markets had Obama over 90% the last couple days and over 80% the last week so really there was very little doubt about the outcome in terms of who the winner was. It isn't surprising then that all the news agencies conducting exit polling have known for hours who the winner will be.
Brian, I actually had an additional sentence that would have made my point clearer, but actually deemed it possibly offensive to my more sensitive American friends (I am not one --yet) around here. Hint: Couch potatoes.
SIV | January 26, 2008, 7:19pm | #
Internet voting would be bad because it would encourage participation. With the resultant fraud, coercion, vote buying etc.SIV has a point. One of the worst periods in American history (politically speaking) was the late 1800s. Bad candidates, bad corruption, but record voter turn out and party loyalty!
crimethink | January 26, 2008, 7:27pm | #
Ali,Isn't that sort of like holding back on a Jewish joke and then saying "Hint: money-grubbing bankers"?
Lost_In_Translation | January 26, 2008, 7:29pm | #
Cesar,Exit polls have him at a more sedate 54%. If Clinton wanted to frighten whites into voting for her by making blacks vote as a block for Obama, I think she succeeded. Something like 80% of blacks voted for Obama in SC.
crimethink- Sounds like it. For me, it is about respect and not offending others, seriously, as opposed to fear of (in this case, verbal) repercussions.
At both of the universities I attended, voter participation plummeted when voting went to the internet. I'm not sure what the cause is, but perhaps something similar would happen if real elections went that way.
prolefeed | January 26, 2008, 7:31pm | #
And the prophet spoke and said"Add not ass!"
Tee Hee
In the immortal words of JFK, "Ass not what you can do for your country -- ass how your country is going to whoop upon your ass."
I may not have gotten the exact words JFK said, but that was the gist, right?
From that Freudian slip, sounds like Ali could use one of those 72 virgins now. (I keed, I keed).
MK | January 26, 2008, 7:33pm | #
The Obama win should fire up certain Ron Paul supporters to try even harder. They're probably getting out their copies the Turner Diaries as we speak.Cesar | January 26, 2008, 7:33pm | #
Yeah I've been thinking the same thing. This actually hurts him--hes the "Black candidate" now. Shes going to play this for all its worth with whites and hispanics come Super Tuesday. Shes still the nominee.
Exit polls have him at a more sedate 54%. If Clinton wanted to frighten whites into voting for her by making blacks vote as a block for Obama, I think she succeeded. Something like 80% of blacks voted for Obama in SC.
David E. Gallaher | January 26, 2008, 7:34pm | #
There is a balm in Giliad, and his name is Obama.He is just the Ben-Gay the hoi polloi need to apply to aching muscles.
South Carolina is such a perverted state, I'm looking forward to moving past the detailed analysis of its perversion, which relief Super Tuesday will provide.
Did anyone notice how the establishment newspaper of the US (NYT) endorsed establishment Clinton and McCain? Will wonders never cease?
Ruthless
Ali | January 26, 2008, 7:35pm | #
From that Freudian slip, sounds like Ali could use one of those 72 virgins now. (I keed, I keed).NO! I am not in that business at all. :-)
One virgin here on earth, yes, 72 later, NO!
prolefeed- LOL. One Freudian slip for Ali, one giant laugh for (H&R) mankind.
Is there an exit poll for tomorrow's super bowl? That could save me a couple of hours of my time tomorrow.
prolefeed | January 26, 2008, 7:40pm | #
If prolefeed or J sub were around, they'd have a field ass day with my typo.AR, why do you think Romney will win just not the nomination but the White House?
Because Mitt's gonna swoop up the social conservative vote due to being the only front-running candidate with no history of chasing ass?
Lost_In_Translation | January 26, 2008, 7:40pm | #
Ali,If you're not married by now, finding that one virgin will be an epic task.
Sparky | January 26, 2008, 7:42pm | #
"Is there an exit poll for tomorrow's super bowl?"You're off by a week. Curse these two week break between conference championship games and the big one!
Lost_In_Translation | January 26, 2008, 7:43pm | #
Clinton vs. Romney, that's the second worst scenario I could imagine and one that would almost cause me to abstain from politics this go around.Kang and Kodos have got us by the balls.
Brian Courts | January 26, 2008, 7:43pm | #
Is there an exit poll for tomorrow's super bowl?Well, first, the Super Bowl isn't tomorrow, but yes, there is an "exit poll" as it were. It's called the scoreboard and updated results will be available all throughout the game so that by the time it is finished we'll know who won within seconds. There is only slightly more uncertainty of to the football game's results than of today's primary.
Wow - could it really be a 15+ point win for Obama? That would be awesome, even with Clinton a solid second (Edwards beating her was just too much to hope for...).
Ali | January 26, 2008, 7:45pm | #
LIT, sheesh, do I regret posting on this thread. Field day it is indeed.But, yes, I know. One needs to look in the right place.
Can we please move on? Damn stupid keyboard.
joe | January 26, 2008, 7:47pm | #
Cesar | January 26, 2008, 7:05pm | #I think that was the last post Chalupa will ever make here.
I project Hit & Run to be the winner.
Brian, right, it is next week. I confused the dates. I am not a big football fan anyways. I only know that there is a super bowl sometime now because of the Patriots. Got to know the score otherwise people at work will grill me for not knowing the scores and other Patriots news. Glad I made the date mistake here and not at the office.
J sub D | January 26, 2008, 7:49pm | #
Off topic - but I didn't start it.What is this almost universal fetish for virgins? Experienced expert technique wins over rookie enthusiasm every time.
Bit I'm a hedonist, take it for what it's worth.
Ali | January 26, 2008, 7:51pm | #
Off topic - but I didn't start it.My keyboard did. Freudian slip my ___!
joe | January 26, 2008, 7:52pm | #
Cesar,Obama tied Hillary among white voters.
In a deep-south state.
I don't think Hillary's race-baiting is hurting him among white voters.
Brian Courts | January 26, 2008, 7:53pm | #
Got to know the score otherwise people at work will grill me for not knowing the scores and other Patriots news.Yeah, I understand - Patriots fans can be an obnoxious bunch. :)
Glad I made the date mistake here and not at the office.
Yep, you would never have heard the end of that. They'd probably make you dress like Belichick for a week as penance.
Lost_In_Translation | January 26, 2008, 7:54pm | #
J sub D,I have no argument with that. I'd rather play ball with someone who knows the rules of the game than be the teacher that explains what the mitt is for.
Lost_In_Translation | January 26, 2008, 7:55pm | #
joe, not according to the CBS exit polls, which showed Clinton and Edwards tied for the white vote and Obama well behind.dhex | January 26, 2008, 7:56pm | #
What is this almost universal fetish for virgins?the early farmer plants a fresh field?
some people really like lousy sex?
i dunno.
prolefeed | January 26, 2008, 7:57pm | #
OK, one last gratuitous swipe at Ali's ass slip-up, and I'll call it a day (WARNING -- the following is so very much not for the prudish -- if you're like that, NM can give you bland stuff you can handle) ;)What kind of girls Muslims get if they don't behave well enough to deserve the virgins:
here
Lost_In_Translation | January 26, 2008, 7:57pm | #
So far, Gravel is up to 8 votes.prolefeed | January 26, 2008, 8:01pm | #
Ali,If you're not married by now, finding that one virgin will be an epic task.
He could always find an LDS girl and convert her. About the last bastion of virgin-rich demographics left, if you can handle the insufferable preachiness.
Lost_In_Translation | January 26, 2008, 8:02pm | #
Cesar,yeah, he's not to far behind with white males, who apparently love Edwards. Crazy country folk.
eeeeeewwwwwwww prolefeed.... I swear I have and will behave well in the future.
Ali -- if I've gone too far and given offense, apologies offered.
Seriously, people, given the statistics, was it such a bad idea to let the south just go? I say this half jokingly.
Lost_In_Translation | January 26, 2008, 8:04pm | #
prolefeed,I met alot of LDS girls when I was working in Wyoming and I can't imagine why you think they're pure. They breed like rabbits as soon as they see red and they're preachy as hell. I can't see why anyone could stand them.
Mr. Nice Guy | January 26, 2008, 8:05pm | #
CesarFrom another thread: I don't think Richmond is even half bad...Shockoe Bottom is cool...The James and the parks beside it rock...Maymont is cool...The Byrd Theater is a cultural treasure...The Fan has some decent places to eat...The history is decent and the VMFA is good for a city of that size...Gotta say I miss that warm Southern weather as well...Makes me want to visit my parents!
I came down to Richmond not too long ago and saw some Ron Paul signs dotting the roadways...How do you think he will do in my old home state?
modd | January 26, 2008, 8:05pm | #
Isn't SC a red state. Who cares which Dem scores there? Kinda like HRC in the Silver State.Lost_In_Translation | January 26, 2008, 8:06pm | #
Ali,Careful, some southerners would see that comment as justification
"See, they don't even want us, let's rise again!!!"
Cesar | January 26, 2008, 8:06pm | #
MNG-My commentary about Richmond was regarding the corrupt city government, not any quality of life issues.
Ron Paul seems to get a lot of donations form Virginia, which is weird, give the depednancy we have on the federal government.
Why are LDS girls seem to always be beautiful? Or, are the ones on HBO only so?
Mr. Nice Guy | January 26, 2008, 8:07pm | #
"who apparently love Edwards. Crazy country folk."Well, Edwards has practically sucked the dick of the SC voters (called "pulling a Romney"), so I'm not surprised...
Lost_In_Translation | January 26, 2008, 8:08pm | #
Cesar,Washington DC...Reason...ringing any bells?
Neu Mejican | January 26, 2008, 8:08pm | #
prolefeed,What, are you Capt. Stabbin or something?
http://www.captainstabbin.com/4/main.htm
Cesar | January 26, 2008, 8:09pm | #
LIT-Good point. VA is the headquarters of a lot of ideological organizations of all stripes. I wonder what would happen if you take out NOVA though with regards to RP fundraising.
Ali | January 26, 2008, 8:09pm | #
LIT,Careful, some southerners would see that comment as justification
For what?
I am just sick of this racially charged mentality. Conscious or not.
crimethink | January 26, 2008, 8:09pm | #
I can't live south of the Mason-Dixon line. I can deal with cold and snow, but massive cockroach populations and scorpions are too much.Mr. Nice Guy | January 26, 2008, 8:09pm | #
Well, yeah Cesar but those dependencies are DOD and therefore good ol' Republican dependencies, which are great in GOP brains and VERY different from government expenditures to, say, those undeserving poor bastards!At the state level ya'll have some good politicos. John Warner is a statesman, and I think Webb could be one-in-training. I'd be hard pressed to think of a better senatorial delegation...
Lost_In_Translation | January 26, 2008, 8:10pm | #
Ali,Salt Lake City is packed with tall beautiful blondes. They are that way because they pretty much eat healthy because of religion and live in a dry, hilly climate known for outdoor activities. Then they breed their replicas. Don't let the pretty face fool you though, there are some real crazies there.
Mr. Nice Guy | January 26, 2008, 8:11pm | #
Hey crimethink, I lived in VA for a decade and I don't remember any scorpions...Was that Petersburg?MNG thats true, John Warner and Jim Webb are two politicians I can vote for without feeling dirty.
Lost_In_Translation | January 26, 2008, 8:11pm | #
crimethink,I haven't ever had to deal with a scorpion and the cockroaches are no worse than the mice that come to live in your house during the winter up north.
David E. Gallaher | January 26, 2008, 8:12pm | #
Ali,You are correct the South should have been just let "go."
As a Southerner, I'm well aware it's pretty far gone, but we like it that way.
I don't usually pay such close attention to you, but, this being SC night, I was wondering if you care to share you ethnicity? I even clicked on your blogspot, but could not find.
Mr. Nice Guy | January 26, 2008, 8:13pm | #
NM-Captian stabbin rules! Ahoy, mateys!But the best porn site ever: Strap-on Stars.
http://www.straponstars.com/
God Bless the USA!
Mr. Nice Guy | January 26, 2008, 8:15pm | #
Cesar-what is your take on Kaine and M. Warner? I'm not sure they are great, but considering who they ran against they are true statesmen! Kilgore was one of hte dumber GOP statewide candidates I've seen in a while (and that includes Mike Farris and Ollie North)Ali | January 26, 2008, 8:16pm | #
LIT, crazies or not (I may regret it later, I know), I will try to find the first opportunity to head to SLC.Iowa girls are very pretty. Same reason? I was driving from Ann Arbor MI to Denver a few years ago and ended up in a Des Moines bar where a bachelorette party was underway. You guess the rest...
prolefeed | January 26, 2008, 8:16pm | #
I met alot of LDS girls when I was working in Wyoming and I can't imagine why you think they're pure. They breed like rabbits as soon as they see red and they're preachy as hell. I can't see why anyone could stand them.Did they start breeding prior to getting married? The ones I've known where the topic came up in conversation were pretty emphatic about no sex prior to marriage -- but, yeah, people lie about sex -- a lot.
Some LDS girls are pleasant to be around and don't push the religion thing, and some are obnoxiously preachy.
And Ali -- there are some really ugly LDS girls, as well as breathtakingly beautiful, and everything in between. Go to LDSPlanet if you want to get a (non-random) sampling.
Mr. Nice Guy | January 26, 2008, 8:17pm | #
LIT-NM mentioned the pron site Captain Stabbin, so I mentioned that while it is a great site, it pales in comparison to the pornographic romps of SOS...Cesar-I should mention that Mark Earley was, imo, a bright, compassionate and fairly principled guy from my limited exposure to him (his work with prison ministries is commendable)
Mr. Nice Guy | January 26, 2008, 8:18pm | #
prolfeed-What do LDSers think of Harry Reid? Just wondering...Lost_In_Translation | January 26, 2008, 8:19pm | #
prolefeed,Yeah, the LDS girls I know all got pregnant before getting married. Of course, I lived in Wyoming, where those banished from Utah go, so maybe the sample was skewed.
crimethink | January 26, 2008, 8:20pm | #
I meant the scorpions in the southwest and the cockroaches in the southeast. Wait a minute...you don't have mice in houses in the South? They're actually a problem in my house all year long. That might be because my 'tard of a landlady leaves dog food out all day, though.prolefeed | January 26, 2008, 8:22pm | #
prolefeed,What, are you Capt. Stabbin or something?
NM -- nah, I was just riffing on the unofficial topic of this thoroughly (but inadvertently) threadjacked thread.
Though I am an admirer of fine, largish okoles.
modd | January 26, 2008, 8:22pm | #
Quote from a colleague when I lived in Idaho: "It was the Mormon girls who always got knocked up." Prolly cuz they felt a condom was far more sinful. As for my experience, truly hot Mormon chicks lasted (if there was a mission involved) to about 22 yrs-old maybe. After that you're talking about the kinda virgins a poor suicide-bombers gonna getcrimethink | January 26, 2008, 8:23pm | #
Kilgore was one of hte dumber GOP statewide candidates I've seen in a while (and that includes Mike Farris and Ollie North)I just found out today that Oliver North went to the same college I'm at. If that's not insulting, I don't know what is.
David- Would "arab" do? The Mediterranean type. A combination of North African, Greek, Lebanese/Palestinian/Syrian complexion. Though, in my particular case, more north african than otherwise. Note: Egyptians are technically not semitic in general, nor Arab in specific.
prolefeed | January 26, 2008, 8:27pm | #
prolfeed-What do LDSers think of Harry Reid? Just wondering...The 80% or so of them who are conservative Republicans generally despise Reid, though apparently he's spent enough time courting the ones in Nevada that he's got enough of the soc-cons on his side that, combined with the Las Vegas vote, he can get reelected by comfortable margins. The Democratic LDS folks generally like Reid.
Mr. Nice Guy | January 26, 2008, 8:27pm | #
According to CNN exit polls Obama won 75%+ of the black vote in every age category...All that talk of black voters being "torn" and "up for grabs" by the media was, of course, bullshit of the highest order, as I called weeks ago...Sorry to say this, but at the present time I think a majority of black voters vote on symbolic issues rather than substantive ones (and I think Obama better on the substantive issues)!
crimethink | January 26, 2008, 8:28pm | #
prolefeed,Wait a minute, you got your name in the same place I got mine!
Mr. Nice Guy | January 26, 2008, 8:28pm | #
prolfeed-I don't want to sound dumb, but what is the reason behind the 80-20 split of LDSers for the GOP? Just curious...Mr. Nice Guy | January 26, 2008, 8:29pm | #
I guess I was also wondering if LDSers were "proud" of Reid being Majority Leader...Like him or not, it's a fairly powerful position, and he's perhaps the most powerful and prominent LDS member in the nation...Cesar | January 26, 2008, 8:30pm | #
Regarding Mark Warner, call me crazy but I don't like people who promise they won't raise taxes during an election and then proceed to do so almost as soon as they take office. However, any Dem that can simultaneously piss off gun control groups and unions at the same time cant be TOO bad.Kaine is a harmless, mediocre Richmond politician but Kilgore made him look like James Madison.
David E. Gallaher | January 26, 2008, 8:30pm | #
Ali,You are a regular Obama in our midst!
Glory be to whomever!
Lord Jubjub | January 26, 2008, 8:30pm | #
Whoa, over 50% counted with Obama doubling Hillary's vote count?This is looking to be a blowout.
Mr. Nice Guy | January 26, 2008, 8:33pm | #
"Kaine is a harmless, mediocre Richmond politician but Kilgore made him look like James Madison."Jesus, that is well put.
prolefeed | January 26, 2008, 8:33pm | #
As for my experience, truly hot Mormon chicks lasted (if there was a mission involved) to about 22 yrs-old maybe. After that you're talking about the kinda virgins a poor suicide-bombers gonna getMmm, usually, but not always. There's a stunning LDS woman who until recently was in my ward who's pushing 30 and unmarried. But, yeah, there's a huge amount of pressure applied to marry young and start popping out the anklebiters. The good-looking unmarried ones are often holding out for returned missionaries, since the competition is fierce for those (oftentimes hugely religiously nutjob) guys. Go figure.
LIT- Going back to be original comment about the south, I think I was just pissed off at how people voted down there. Now that I am less angry, coming to think of it, NE isn't much better either. They just don't talk about it. But, yes, I've got to be careful.
prolefeed | January 26, 2008, 8:36pm | #
I guess I was also wondering if LDSers were "proud" of Reid being Majority Leader...Like him or not, it's a fairly powerful position, and he's perhaps the most powerful and prominent LDS member in the nation...MNG -- being "proud" is considered a huge vice in LDS circles. And being gay-type proud is cause for ostracism.
prolefeed | January 26, 2008, 8:40pm | #
prolfeed-I don't want to sound dumb, but what is the reason behind the 80-20 split of LDSers for the GOP? Just curious...It's a recent phenomenon -- LDS used to be heavily Democratic up until the 50s or so. If you've been exposed to the theology, there's a huge emphasis on fiscal conservatism, but the biggest draw is the social conservatism. Campaigned in the 90% LDS stronghold of Laie, and about all anyone asked about was my views on gay marriage and abortion.
anon | January 26, 2008, 8:40pm | #
I am not a big football fan anyways.Ali, are you watching the African cub? Good win for Egypt today.
David E. Gallaher | January 26, 2008, 8:43pm | #
Ali,Perhaps this will be helpful:
The South is where the ignorant are proud of their ignorance.
The rest of this country has been saturated with enough Political Correctness crap that the ignorant might be a teensy ashamed.
Just so you know, peaceful anarchists feel no need to vote.
Peace out!
Ruthless
modd | January 26, 2008, 8:43pm | #
That's the diamond in the ruff and she's holding out for a non-nutjob. I wish her all the best. This RM went gentile.Ali | January 26, 2008, 8:45pm | #
Ali,You are a regular Obama in our midst!
Glory be to whomever!
What do you mean? I really don't get it?
Obama is my second preference for a president (as I said before, he does have a terroristic middle name after all :-) ). The first being Ron Paul. And no, not because of his stance regarding the Middle East.
Which brings me back to Ayn_Randian, Mitt will probably not deliver on any of the things he's promising. It is funny that his current popularity is inversely proportion to the distance from Boston. Those who have known him seem to agree that he's a big liar and a big hack.
So between Mitt and Obama, I'd say that despite Obama's socialism and populism, he does have some integrity and carries with him some respect. He could also be good as far as America's image in the world is concerned.
Having Clinton in office is probably worse than any of the other candidates (including McCain and Mitt) as far as the middle east is concerned.
Ali | January 26, 2008, 8:47pm | #
anon-Ali, are you watching the African cub? Good win for Egypt today.
No, but I heard about the final score. They seem to be doing well. But funny thing is that I am loosing interest in soccer. I am becoming more of a baseball fan now. And may be the NBA finals.
modd | January 26, 2008, 8:47pm | #
sorry, answer to prolefeed 'bout LDS hottie.Ali | January 26, 2008, 8:52pm | #
Got to fix my math skills:It is funny that his current popularity is
modd | January 26, 2008, 8:54pm | #
prolefeed, interesting about the LDS mix. What's happened to the ETB branch of 'political' Mormon? True it was also extremely socially conservative but wasn't ETB a co-founder of JBS? Just a guess.joe | January 26, 2008, 9:03pm | #
So there have been four contested Democratic contests. Hillary Clinton came in second in the first of them, got trounced in the latest, and is well behind in elected delegates. In Nevada, the state party opened up caucus sites over her objections, and she lost her case in court. In South Carolina, she sent Bill Clinton, the most popular president among African-Americans, to campaign for her, and she got trounced. She is trying to get the national party to count Michigan and Florida for delegate selections, and they won't. Her national poll numbers have been dropping recently, and are going to drop more after this trouncing, on the way to Super Tuesday. She and Bill are getting blasted across the country by the So Called Liberal Media. This all happening three years after the Clintons were unable to install their prepared candidate as Chairman of the DNC.So, are we ready to do away with the old "The Clintons Own the Democratic Party" conspiracy theory line, and admit that, yes Virginia, this actually is a competitive race?
Or are people still going to cling to that, even if Hillary loses, or barely scrapes by with enough delegates to win?
Lastly, regarding my comment at 8:45, you go to elections with the presidential candidates you have. They're not the presidential candidates you might want or wish to have at a later time. ;-)
Are you kidding me??? In a solidly Republican State, Democrats are going to have about 120,000 more people turn out for their primary...amazing.
Neu Mejican | January 26, 2008, 9:06pm | #
Mr. Nice Guy,Mr. Nice Guy | January 26, 2008, 8:13pm | #
NM-Captian stabbin rules! Ahoy, mateys!
But the best porn site ever: Strap-on Stars...
Maybe a bit too much information in that one...is MNG hoping his 72 virgins are into pegging?
Neu Mejican | January 26, 2008, 9:08pm | #
For MNG,http://www.undiadefuria.org/imagenes/img_dc603173b0980abbaeaedb639170fc70.jpg
James, looking at the numbers, I think the difference is less that 120k. May be less than 50k.
Cesar | January 26, 2008, 9:10pm | #
Joe-I think we saw what happens when Bill opens his mouth one too many times tonight.
Neu Mejican | January 26, 2008, 9:11pm | #
MNG,Sorry, I shouldn't assume...
Your preferences aren't pegged to your comment.
;^)
Mr. nice Guy | January 26, 2008, 9:15pm | #
NM-What can I say, I love the strap-on action...If I were Obama I would be worried about the amazingly disproprtionate black vote for him...
But, he sounds great right now. He's bringing new people into the process...He won't appoint Alito-clones...
Neu Mejican | January 26, 2008, 9:15pm | #
Ali,In the context of the sub-dialog going on here, that sounds dirty, dirty, dirty...
James | January 26, 2008, 9:16pm | #
Ali,I was wrong...but it looks like about 65,000 more Dem. voters...this is still incredible, South Carolina is a hugely Republican state..
David E. Gallaher | January 26, 2008, 9:17pm | #
"you go to elections with the presidential candidates you have. "A hearty ha ha
Don't vote!
Peaceful anarchy is the only way out...
James, the only thing that would reverse that trend is that HRC wins the dem nomination. 65,000 is more like it since they are still doing some counting.
David E. Gallaher | January 26, 2008, 9:25pm | #
Caroline Kennedy has provided the kiss of death to Billary.Oprah had already kicked her in her nuts.
Praise be to Allah!!
Peaceful anarchy ueber alles!
sv | January 26, 2008, 9:26pm | #
joe, i'm impressed by your prediction at the beginning of this thread (obama wins by double digits)joe | January 26, 2008, 9:26pm | #
Democrats 507,320 (96% reporting)Republicans 442,918
In South Carolina.
November is going to be like 1932, but with better coffee.
Neu Mejican | January 26, 2008, 9:31pm | #
Ali,Sorry...just being a smart ass.
;)
On topic...
This was Obama kicks Ass Day.
Not to add an ass or anything.
joe | January 26, 2008, 9:32pm | #
I lowballed, sv. Holy freaking crap, he's going to win by 30%!In a three-way race (which goes well with that strap-on action), where the third-place finisher is a hometown boy, he's going to get 55% of the vote!
It ain't over. It ain't close to over. Hillary Clinton is a good candidate, and she has shown that she can turn on a dime, retool, and keep on coming. But she's not the frontrunner after tonight.
And think of this: the last time this happened - Iowa - when Obama won, and won big (well, we thought of it as big at that time), and vastly surpassed expectations, Hillary's firewall of New Hampshire was next. And she won it, and all the stories were about her winning.
"Next" this time is Super Duper Tuesday. Hillary might win more states than Obama on February 5, but not a lot. She might win more votes, but not a lot. Even if she "wins" on Super Duper Tuesday, the news reports are going to be about a mixed victory, with Hillary winning some states, and Barack winning some states. Hillary was able to stop his momentum cold in the next contest after Iowa, and that cannot happen this time.
Heinrick | January 26, 2008, 9:32pm | #
This racees would have looked a little different if Colbert would been allowed to be on the ballotsprolefeed | January 26, 2008, 9:34pm | #
prolefeed, interesting about the LDS mix. What's happened to the ETB branch of 'political' Mormon? True it was also extremely socially conservative but wasn't ETB a co-founder of JBS? Just a guess.modd, no idea what the acronyms ETB or JBS stand for.
James | January 26, 2008, 9:36pm | #
Joe,I don't know...could Edwards drop out and endorse Obama now?!! I don't actually hate Hillary but I don't like her and I don't want that whole gang back in the White House again and if Democrats are smart they will back Obama because only Obama could cause a major political re-alignment...Damn elderly women voting for Hillary!!
Mr. Nice guy | January 26, 2008, 9:37pm | #
"This racees would have looked a little different if Colbert would been allowed to be on the ballots"No, now if Tyler Perry were on the ballot...
David E. Gallaher | January 26, 2008, 9:37pm | #
Billery should spread her legs, grab her ankles and graciously receive the strap-on from Caroline Kennedy.Praise be to Allah!
Mr. Nice guy | January 26, 2008, 9:39pm | #
HRC is WAY ahead of Obama in FL, which has WAY more delegates...this may be much ado about nothing...Obama was terrific in his speech 2night...
Cesar | January 26