Rasmussen: Calm Down, It’s Still a Close Race, Nothing Dramatic Has Happened

Rasmussen’s latest daily presidential tracking poll has Barack Obama at 48 percent and Mitt Romney at 47 percent, the first poll to show the president with any kind of lead since his poor debate performance last week. That performance was followed by a slew of unfavorable polls for the president, the most devastating of which was a Pew Research poll that Andrew Sullivan dissected to explain just how devastating the president’s debate performance was. In his analysis, Sullivan also noted he dismisses Rasmussen polls off hand. Perhaps he shouldn’t. From Rasmussen’s analysis of its latest presidential daily tracking poll:

We have reached the point in the campaign where media reports of some polls suggest wild, short-term swings in voter preferences. That doesn’t happen in the real world. A more realistic assessment shows that the race has remained stable and very close for months. Since last week’s debate, the numbers have shifted somewhat in Romney’s direction, but even that change has been fairly modest. Still, in a close race, a modest change can have a major impact. Over the past 100 days of tracking, Romney and Obama have been within two points of each other 72 times. Additionally, on 89 of those 100 days, the candidates have been within three points of each other.

Romney’s lead in the RealClearPolitics average is down to 1.3 with the new Rasmussen poll but it’s still the best polling position he’s been in in a tight race so far. Though campaign polling has been described as “volatile,” the RealClearPolitics list of polling data tells a different story. Romney hasn’t lead by more than 2 points in any poll since the beginning of August until this week, and hasn’t had consecutive leads in polls since May. The president, meanwhile, has polled up to 9 points ahead in polls as recent as two weeks ago. You’d have to go to unskewedpolls.com to find any polls going that far in Romney’s favor. The race has certainly remained close and even tightened, but a close race is hardly a volatile one.

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  • Rational Thinker||

    If even the GOP house poll shows Obama back in the lead that proves this election is over.

    Hope all the Romney mouth breathers enjoyed their week of false hope.

  • John||

    Stupid troll is stupid. But he makes up for it by having a cool ironic name.

  • MJGreen||

    She's out of her element.

  • ||

    A mental institution?

  • John||

    You would think they wouldn't allow the patients access to the internet. Things have gotten pretty slack since One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest

  • ||

    You’d have to go to unskewedpolls.com

    God forbid that you actually give us a link.

  • Rational Thinker||

    Why would you want a link, it's just a GOP front group to try and manipulate people into not believing the actual state of the race.

    If anything the actual polls underrate Obama's lead considering all of Romney's massive gaffes like betraying the country on foreign policy, the 47%, his supporters cheering Ryan over him, his assault on Big Bird, etc.

    That kind of stuff doesn't play in America, just in the right-wing enclaves where all the white trailer trash huddle together worried about the black man coming and providing them with modern health care.

  • Rational Thinker||

    Have you seen John's meltdowns over Ryan and Romney lately?

  • Cytotoxic||

    A+. Perfect rising crescendo of delusion.

  • Doctor Whom||

    If you want us to take you seriously as a rational thinker, try not to appeal to spite quite so blatantly.

  • ||

    Why would you want a link, it's just a GOP front group to try and manipulate people into not believing the actual state of the race.

    Maybe but Ed did not say that.

    Also even if it was that does not negate a link.

    Reason links to front groups of all political stripes.

    This is Reason.com for god sakes. Without links to radical minority alternative views what is the fucking point?

  • ||

    Also i don't think it is a GOP front group.

    More like a conservative back group.

    Seriously that site looks like it was made in 1998. Might even be Opera 1.0 compatible.

    GOP may be dense when it comes to the internet (series of tubes) but I think by now they have figured out how to pay a web designer.

  • John||

    I don't buy their poll calculations. But they make an interesting counter point to the mainstream ones. I suspect the truth is close to the middle between them.

  • ||

    Just because i think they are a "conservative back group" does not mean I think they are wrong.

    The polls since the convention have been screwy in my opinion and picking one poll over another or one correction over another is all simply an appeal to authority.

    We also have pretty good evidence that the Obama administration has at least attempted to bully Gallop...so we know there is political maneuvering going on.

    I think the best course (especially for reason.com) would be to show all the alternatives that are out there and just shrug and say "Who the fuck knows. We will find out soon enough."

  • SugarFree||

    Nah. That's someone working with Soros money.

  • SugarFree||

    Probably even just a bot.

  • ||

    http://www.weeklystandard.com/.....54143.html

    Gallop is pulling some bullshit.

    Yeah i know i cut and pasted from Drudge. So sue me.

  • ParkPlace||

    You'll be hearing from my Atty.

  • John||

    The early turnout in the absetnee voting is interesting.

    In Florida, 46% of absentee ballots returned by September's end came from Republicans (compared with 37% in 2008) while just 38% came from Democrats (they were 46% of the total in 2008). More Republicans have requested absentee ballots in Colorado, a state where Democrats edged out Republicans in early voting last time.

    Republicans have also made up ground in Ohio. For example, in 2008 Democrats requested 5% more absentee ballots in Franklin County (Columbus), 4% more in Greene County (Xenia), and 11% more in Wood County (Bowling Green). This election, Republicans have more ballot requests than Democrats in these counties by 5%, 19% and 1% respectively.

    http://professional.wsj.com/ar.....reno64-wsj

    Maybe something has changed that has caused Republicans to be more statistically likely to cast early votes now than they were in 2008. I have no idea what that could be. But it is certainly possible. If that is not the case, however, and these numbers represent a legitimate sample of the actual turnout, Obama is in a lot of trouble.

  • The Immaculate Trouser||

    Not all polls are created equal, and polling internals reveal trends that are quite interesting when one compares to the '08 election. Enthusiasm on the D side is quite low, and the groups that Obama needs the most seem to have decided that they'll be staying home in greater numbers than '08. Rasmussen is more right than wrong when they say it's a close race, and IMO it is also more volatile than this OP would conclude.

  • Cytotoxic||

    I think all of O's supporters will vote for him, unenthusiastically. They will trudge to the booth.

  • ParkPlace||

    I'm enthusiastic. We're getting our country on the right track now. Obama just needs more time.

  • ||

    REPEAL THE TWO TERM LIMIT! GIVE OBAMA THE 8 12 16 20 INFINITE YEARS HE NEEDS!

  • BarryD||

    An infinite number of Obamas, with an infinite number of typewriters...

  • Randian||

    Racist!

  • ParkPlace||

    Can Romney ever be honest: ‘We Don’t Have People Who Die Because They Don’t Have Insurance’

  • R C Dean||

    Give me an example, a single example, of somebody who died because they didn't have insurance.

  • ||

    Yes. Plenty of people who went bankrupt cause they didn;t have insurance. Dying, not so much.

  • Mumu Bobby||

    I think that's funny. Consider two of the richest Americans that died in the past year or so, Steve Jobs and Warren Hellman. Jobs died in great part due to his California 'zen' approach to medicine. He wasted time with 'natural medicine' instead of going with the cutting edge, time that it turned out he didn't have. Hellman was living his dream - a banjo player in a touring band - so he passed on Chemo for six months and it was too late.

    I don't know what the lesson is but the idea that lack of insurance is some big killer is a joke in this country. And instead of asking for the name of the person that died from lack of insurance, how about naming the hospitals that are turning away the dying? And which free clinics are looking for insurance?

  • ||

    I wonder if Reason Writers fight over who gets to write the daily poll article.

    "No one reads my stuff!! I want the poll article!!!"

  • Citizen Nothing||

    A five percent absentee swing in central Ohio could be the whole race. (It's much sweeter voting for GJ in a swing state.)

  • John||

    It is not a five percent swing. It is a ten percent swing from -5 to +5. That is a huge swing. And all of the early voting numbers show a big R and a small D turn out. As I said above, maybe there is some reason that Republicans are statistically more likely to cast early votes this year than they were in 2008. I don't know. But Obama better hope that is the case. Otherwise he is doomed.

  • Rational Thinker||

    Yes, yes, Obama is doomed, keep banging that drum while telling the libertarians to vote for him.

    But you don't want Romney to win, won't vote for him, no sir.

  • ParkPlace||

    You sound obsessed

  • Rational Thinker||

    I thought it was the libertarians who refuse to vote for Obama who were angry. Stamping their feet refusing to vote for Romney.

    Who you won't. And don't support. And hate.

  • MJGreen||

    I don't know about other libertarians, but I refuse to vote for Obama given his leniency on gamboling about plain and forest. If Romney promises to keep that shit prohibited, he's got my vote.

  • John||

    CN

    Here is perhaps some explanation. Apparently the Republicans are pushing for people to cast early ballots and the McCain people didn't. That explains some of the switch. God McCain ran a horrible campaign.

    http://professional.wsj.com/ar.....reno64-wsj

  • BarryD||

    The only plausible explanation for McCain's campaign: http://www.southparkstudios.co.....last-night

  • Rational Thinker||

    Tell me more about the teams.

    And how you can just crush any argument by being glib.

    John learned it from you.

    Or a decongestant commercial.

  • Rational Thinker||

    Everyone must be part of a cabal out to get me!

    SOOTHING ACTION ACTION ACTION

  • John||

    She screwed up the thread. That is what she is here to do.

  • Rational Thinker||

    And when you start whining about "Reason" as a singular entity attacking Romney while demanding all the libertarians vote for Obama or they're hypocrites...what's that?

  • YinxDoo||

    Sometimes dude you jsut have to roll wit the punches.

    www.PrivacyGet.tk

  • ||

    And sometimes you have to kidnap them, drop them on your private island, and go hunting.

  • ||

    I have little faith in polls. Suthenboy's poll has found that many former obama supporters are switching, but has not found a single person switching sides for obama. I predict a Romney win.

  • Zeb||

    I'm just hoping that that Mayan apocalypse thingy happens before whoever gets elected is sworn in.

  • ||

    Have faith.

    The coming economic collapse could result in a libertarian wave.

    We will live in ditches...but we will be free.

  • Brandybuck||

    After the debate it appeared that Obama wasn't necessarily the automatic shoo-in the media portrayed him to be. This was profoundly frightening to the average progressive.

  • Mumu Bobby||

    They're still portraying him as shoo-in. Just look at the 538 blog - the voice of the NY Times on polling.

  • ||

    They're still portraying him as shoo-in. Just look at the 538 blog - the voice of the NY Times on polling.

    If by "shoo-in" you mean 538 is "showing the race rapidly tightening, heading toward a dead heat", then sure:

    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

  • ||

    Also from 538:

    "For the time being, however, Mr. Romney continues to rocket forward in our projections. The forecast model now gives him about a one-in-three chance of winning the Electoral College (more specifically, a 32.1 percent chance), his highest figure since Aug. 22 and more than double his chances from before the debate."

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