Gary Johnson Could Take 6 Percent of the Vote

The September Reason-Rupe Poll interviewed 1,006 Americans on landline and cellphones. Among the 787 respondents who said they definitely planned to vote in November, 6 percent plan to vote for Libertarian Presidential candidate Gary Johnson when given the option. Problematically for Johnson, few ballots actually list only three candidates. For instance, this Ohio ballot lists 8 presidential candidates.

Nevertheless, including Gary Johnson in a presidential match-up demonstrates that he takes votes from both Mitt Romney and Barack Obama, three percent from each. Johnson voters are overwhelmingly unfavorable toward both candidates; 71 percent have unfavorable opinions of Obama and 61 percent are unfavorable toward Romney.

Johnson Voters

Fifty-seven percent of Johnson voters self identify as politically independent. When asked if they lean toward one of the major political parties, 53 percent lean toward the Republicans and 38 percent lean toward the Democrats. Only 10 percent say they are completely Independent. In sum, Johnson voters are most likely to be Independent-leaning Republicans.

Forty-one percent of Johnson voters self-identify as libertarian. Only 14 percent self-identify as conservative and 10 percent self-identify as liberal. Using the Reason-Rupe ideological typology, 65 percent of Johnson voters are libertarian, the remainder is liberal or conservative, and none are communitarian.

Libertarians

Another way to slice the data is to look at libertarians, as defined by the Reason-Rupe ideological typology. These libertarian respondents said that government should not promote a particular set of values and that people are better able to handle complex economic problems within a free market with less government involvement. When only provided two-options for president, 77 percent of likely libertarian voters say they plan to vote for Romney, 20 percent plan to vote for Obama. However, when Gary Johnson is included as a third option, he receives 14 percent of the libertarian vote. Johnson also captures voters from both Romney and Obama. Obama’s libertarian share declines from 20 percent to 13 percent and Romney’s declines from 77 to 70.

Nationwide telephone poll conducted September 13th-17th on both landline and cell phones, 1006 adults, margin of error +/- 3.8%. The sample also includes 787 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 4.3%. Columns may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Full methodology can be found here. Full poll results found here.

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  • Morty||

    Now that's something to think about

  • deified||

    Emily Ekins is clearly the best thing about HR.

  • Palin's Buttplug||

    Excellent. I have decided to vote for GJ. I live in Georgia and my vote is not needed to defeat Romney anyway.

  • ||

    I have decided to vote for GJ.

    Woot!!!

    This is the best post you have ever made.

  • Proprietist||

    Agree with this completely. Congratulations on your enlightenment, Shrike.

  • Fist of Etiquette||

    Nevertheless, including Gary Johnson in a presidential match-up demonstrates that he takes votes from both Mitt Romney and Barack Obama, three percent from each.

    And with the standard oversampling of Democrats, that's three percent from Romney and none from Obama.

  • ||

    Wouldn't it go the other way if Dems were oversampled?

  • Fist of Etiquette||

    Who am I, Zogby?

  • ||

    No help, is what you are.

  • ||

    I am skeptical of polls that give Obama these huge leads and use 2008 democrat turn out to skew the results. (Reason's poll does use a pretty big democrat turn out)

    I guess we will find out the real numbers soon enough.

    Anyway it is cool that Johnson is pulling from both parties.

  • The Hammer||

    I don't remember ever seeing a candidate on either side as uninspiring as Romney, so I am willing to believe these polls, since the Obama zealots will never question their idol long enough to consider voting for anyone else. I fully expect Obama to still receive a sizable percentage of the vote in 2016.

  • ||

    I don't remember ever seeing a candidate on either side as uninspiring as Romney

    McCain, Bush, Dole, Mondale, Kerry, Gore, Bush Sr. Carter, Nixon.

    the only candidates i can think of who were ever inspiring were Reagan and Clinton. (I wasn't around for Kennedy) People still love those guys.

    Obama could have been said to be inspiring circa 2008...but favor polls just do not show that the love is there anymore.

    You could be right in relative terms. both are uninspiring...only Romney is the most uninspiring.

  • Mike M.||

    Also, I could wake up next to Kate Upton.

  • ||

    However, when Gary Johnson is included as a third option, he receives 14 percent of the libertarian vote. Johnson also captures voters from both Romney and Obama. Obama’s libertarian share declines from 20 percent to 13 percent and Romney’s declines from 77 to 70.

    Argh. That's most of the problem right there. Johnson should be getting closer to 80 percent of this so-called libertarian vote when included.

  • Zeb||

    Seriously. For the first time in a while the LP runs a non-crazy, plausible candidate and self identifying libertarians still won't vote for him?

  • Proprietist||

    Bob Barr was non-crazy and plausible. Unfortunately he wasn't particularly libertarian.

  • Virginian||

    I don't know if you noticed this, but libertarians are kind of hard to get falling in behind a banner, even a much better banner then usual.

  • ||

    Romney’s declines from 77 to 70.

    Lots of conservatives call themselves libertarians...when they really are not libertarians.

    "hey you should go the county republican committee"

    "I can't I am a libertarian"

    "Sure you can I am a libertarian"

    "Oh so you think we should close Gitmo, cut the military by $300 billion cut medicare and social security, end the Iraq and Afghan wars, legalize gay marriage, end the war on drugs, and open up the boarder with Mexico for citizenship and workers?"

    "ummm maybe I am not a libertarian"

  • Robert||

    Those "conservatives" who call themselves libertarian...probably are libertarians, just not radical ones. They may be for easing border restrictions, but not opening up the border; for reducing emphasis on drug prohibitions, but not ending them; generally anti-war, but maybe not one or more of these particular wars; etc.

  • Robert||

    That's most of the problem right there. Johnson should be getting closer to 80 percent of this so-called libertarian vote when included.


    Only if you confuse "libertarian" with "radical libertarian", as observers of these diamond charts tend to do.

    Most people who have a political tendency are moderates, not radicals/extremists. However, the people interested in discussing this are typically radicals (or extremists, unless that term have inappropriate connotations). Libertarian Party candidates are nowhere near capturing the center, while mainstream candidates usually do capture plenty of the center.

  • Tim||

    The Dude: Fuck sympathy! I don't need your fuckin' sympathy, man, I need my fucking johnson!
    Donny: What do you need that for, Dude?

  • John||

    This one appears to be not skewed towards Democrats in its sampling. But it is completely out of line with every other poll. Who knows. Maybe Gallup and Rasmussen are wrong and our own Emily is right. Time will tell.

  • Palin's Buttplug||

    Rasmussen is the only one consistently skewed.

    Rasmussen doesn't factor cell phone only people properly.

    http://www.outsidethebeltway.c.....a-leading/

    Your boy is fucked.

  • John||

    Because only liberals own cellphones. Can you just die Shreek? I am tired of you using my air to perpetuate your idiocy. You subhuman little bastard.

  • ||

    Your boy is fucked.

    Robama and Obamney are going to fuck us all dipshit.

  • ||

    This one appears to be not skewed towards Democrats in its sampling.

    http://www.unskewedpolls.com/

    These guys disagree with you.

    But yeah you are right. Time will tell.

  • ||

    Parameter Unweighted Weighted
    Republican 23 .7 26 .2 23 .8
    Democrat 31.8 37.4 32.6

    So what does this all mean?

    And why weight it at all? Why not simply show the numbers you got from the questions?

  • pmains||

    Because you need to correct for the built-in bias for whatever sampling methodology you're using. Some methodologies will over-sample whites, non-whites, men, women, Democrats, Republicans, etc. That's the nature of the beast. To get something close to the "real" number, you need to weight it.

  • ||

    So in other words the +/- 3to4% error is complete bullshit that does not include error bars in any weighting.

    Dick Moriss has some interesting things to say about Rasmussen in this regard.

    Pollster Scott Rasmussen has the best solution to the party id problem. He weights his polls to reflect the unweighted party identification of the previous three weeks, so he has a dynamic model which adjusts for sampling error but still takes account of gradual changes in the electorate’s partisan preferences.

    http://www.dickmorris.com/romney-pulls-ahead/

    Anyway Reason can't do daily polls like that. One shot polls without tests to the weights could all be BS.

    note: I have no idea if Morris is right about Romney leading. I linked for his comments about Rasmussen.

  • Romulus Augustus||

    6% is almost 8,000,000 votes. I'd be extremely happy if he gets 2,000,000 (about 1.5%) on Election Day. I'd be happier still if the LP could translate that into doubling or tripling its membership and
    getting active local organizations set up in a majority of U.S. counties.

  • ||

    If he breaks a million it will be an unprecedented miracle. We still haven't topped the Kochtopus-assisted high-water mark.

  • Eduard van Haalen||

    "Problematically for Johnson, few ballots actually list only three candidates. For instance, this Ohio ballot lists 8 presidential candidates."

    Wait, if more options are listed Johnson loses votes?

  • Proprietist||

    You'd think they'd solve this problem by including the rest of the candidates.

    Anyone know if Jill Stein is on enough ballots to statistically win the presidency?

  • ||

    Yes, I heard she was on almost all of them as well.

  • Delroy||

    I live in Ohio. Is Brandi Maxxx on the ballot?

  • Libertarian||

    The fact that my vote hurts both major candidates will detract from the sweetness of the loser's tears. But I'm still voting Gary Johnson.

  • wef||

    Perhaps in those states where the outcome is a "foregone conclusion" - California, say - Johnson might pick up more voters from the left of the spectrum. And it appears to me the move is underway to team o. As of a few minutes ago, obama is now slightly past three-to-one odds in favor at intrade:

    Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012
    75.6% CHANCE
    Last prediction was: $7.56 / share
    Today's Change: +$0.24 (+3.3%)

  • ||

    So for every dollar i put in for a Romney win i could get 3 dollars in return?

    Fuck.

    I wish the polls did not go weird after the conventions...I would have put $10,000 on Romney.

  • Robert||

    Wouldn't you be better off doing that now?

  • BoscoH||

    He's getting at least 50% in my household. And if I can convince the other member to stay at work late that day, Obama won't get the other 50% and Johnson will win unanimously. #RockTheVote

  • TinkRow||

    Sounds like some very funny stuff dude. Wow.

    www.PrivacyCrew.tk

  • Rich M||

    If you look at the 3-way vote in the first chart, Obama has only 49%. If that translates to the electoral vote, and no candidate has more than 50%, the Republican controlled House picks the president. I'd love to see Johnson get enough electoral votes for that to happen just so when the House votes Romney in, he can't claim majority support and will maybe have to govern in a more libertarian direction.

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