New CNN GOP Presidential Poll: No Frontrunner, Ron Paul in Double Digits (And Closest to Obama)

Tonight is the first presidential race debate of the season in South Carolina, which Fox will be airing live at 9 pm eastern. CNN released a poll today showing no one above 20 percent, and Mike Huckabee on top with 16. Six points behind him at 10 percent is that supposedly unelectable obscurity, Ron Paul. (Margin of error is 3 percent.)

Most interesting is the general election matchup between whoever from the GOP and Obama. (Note: the telephone poll happened before the Bin Laden news):

Who does best against Obama? Paul. The congressman from Texas, who also ran as a libertarian candidate for president in 1988 and who is well liked by many in the tea party movement, trails the president by only seven points (52 to 45 percent) in a hypothetical general election showdown. Huckabee trails by eight points, with Romney down 11 points to Obama.

I've written quite a bit about Rep. Paul over the years.

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  • Bee Tagger||

    who is well liked by many in the tea party movement

    Thank you, CNN, for continuing to use the phrase "tea party movement" to explain completely contradictory things from one report to the next. I really appreciate that you use it each time with such authority that to question your use would seem absurd.

  • Cartoon Tits||

    THIS^^^^

  • rather||

    poor thing can never sleep on her stomach again :-(

  • $$||

    Perhaps you could express your outrage by donating to the Ron Paul Debate Day Money Bomb?

  • Tony||

    Mitt Romney Haunted By Past Of Trying To Help Uninsured Sick People

    "I don't think I can vote for someone like that," Pennsylvania Republican Eric Tolbert said. "He says he's sorry, but how do I know that's the real Mitt Romney? What happens if he gets elected and tries to help sick people again?"

    "I like Michele Bachmann now," Tolbert added. "Because what this country needs is a president who doesn't give a fuck about helping people."

  • ||

    Romney should just arrange to be videotaped kicking the fuck out of a few sick people to bolster his conservative cred.

  • ||

    Well there is that picture of him with the rubber glove...

  • sarcasmic||

    Cue 'Russell Crowe: Fighting Around the World'

    "Take that cancer!"

  • Tony||

    And rescuing would-be aborted fetuses with his bare hands. Then kicking the fuck out of them for needing healthcare.

  • Paul||

    Romney should just arrange to be videotaped kicking the fuck out of a few sick people to bolster his conservative cred.

    Here is an actual picture of Romney kicking the fuck out of sick people. while Democrats cheered.

  • The Thinking Man's NASCAR||

    Well played, Paul. Well played.

  • ||

    Hey, I am not a Romney supporter - just a political adviser.

    Good one.

  • Really?||

    I would like to point out that most believers in the War on Drugs think they are "helping" those who cannot help themselves.

    See also:

    War on fat.
    War on Libya and War on Iraq.
    War on Gambling.

    Government "helping" sick people is the wrong move - Michelle Bachmann should not be taken to task for omitting the word "government" from the quote.

  • mr simple||

    Because what this country needs is a president who doesn't give a fuck about helping people

    Preach it, brother!

  • Auric Demonocles||

    Does bombing them count as helping?

  • truman||

    we must first destroy them to save them.

  • Montani Semper Liberi||

    Could you point me to the part of the Constitution where the "helping people" power is delegated to the President? I can't seem to find it.

  • heartless bastards||

    here lemme use my dick to point that out for ya

  • Tango Mike||

    It's not on microfiche...

  • Montani Semper Liberi||

    Hold on, let me get my magnifying glass to see what you are pointing to.

  • rather||

    magnifying glass? I need a high powered microscope

  • MNG||

    The Spending Power?

  • Paul||

    The Spending Power?

    No. That's the part of the constitution where it delegates congress as having the power to hurt people.

  • Lord Googoo||

    LA!

  • sarcasmic||

    United States Constitution in Seven Words:

    General welfare... regulate commerce... necessary and proper

    I think that means that they can do whatever the fuck they want.

  • ||

    Unlimited state is unlimited.

  • #||

    too many words... its more like "congres shall have the power to make laws" but even that is too generous - they donlt care if its congress - should just be "power to make laws"

  • SIV||

    I too would choose Bachmann over Romney.

  • MNG||

    Shit, so would I.

  • Tony||

    Do, and tell your friends!

  • sarcasmic||

    For what, exactly?

  • Paul||

    Why would any republican choose romney? I mean, how full of shit does the GOP have to be to be fighting Obamacare on the one hand, and ushering in its midwife with the other?

  • #||

    How is this any different than Hillary almost and Kerry getting nominated? Both of them where against the Iraq after being for it.

  • ||

    Why would any republican choose romney

    When the other choices are McCain and Huckabee?

  • Joe R.||

    Liberalism: a philosophy for those who believe anal rape is a proper punishment for failure to donate to charity.

  • ||

    As cheering as this news would seem to be, I'm not sure it really means what it seem to mean.

    Paul has the same hard core of 10% he always has, perhaps fortified a point or two by the economic crisis - but getting above that is harder for him than it is for almost any other candidate. Every time you subtract a candidate, whether it's Romney, Huckabee, Daniels, Pawlenty, or whoever, their support is going to be distributed around to various remaining candidates, but not Paul. There are Paulites, and their are mainstream Republicans, and never the twain shall meet.

    As for the matchup against Obama, that would seem a concomitant of Paul's relative obscurity, combined with the enthusiasm of those who do know him. Polls show a 'generic Republican' beating Obama in matchups; that same is not true of any actual Republican, because actual Republicans are flawed people with actual defined positions, not blank ciphers in whom you can imagine what you want. Being obscure, Paul can be that generic Republican to many, while his supporters (unlike the similarly obscure Pawlenty), knowing him and loving him, fill out the gap.

  • ||

    Nice writing for the short time this article was here.

  • Joe M||

    Actually, I believe you're incorrect on that. Check out this poll.

    Paul has way less negatives than almost every other high-profile GOP candidate.

  • Paul||

    Wouldn't that be way fewer negatives? Someone call Cavanaugh so we can get a ruling on this!

  • Joe M||

    Oops. My mistake. Less negative energy, I meant.

  • MNG||

    I would agree Paul likely doesn't have the negatives of many others, but if wants to preserve that he has to become more politic in his talk. People are not ready to swarm the streets to end the FDA for example. He should pick a general theme with a few popular examples and stick to it.

  • Joe M||

    You don't think he's already doing that? "End the Fed, bring our troops home, cut spending." Pretty straightforward.

  • MNG||

    I dunno, the other day he was on NPR and he went from that to railing against the FDA and FEMA...

  • Lord Googoo||

    LA!

  • SIV||

    My purely anecdotal experience is that conservative Republicans, outside the establishment, like Ron Paul just fine till he opens his mouth on foreign/military policy.He could finesse it so much better w/o changing his views. Rand could teach him a thing or two.

  • Sudden||

    This.

    But beyond this even. I know a number of very conventional GOP types. And although some have indicated a preference for other candidates in the field, it's generally due to their perception of greater electability vs. Obama (and I do look forward to forwarding the results of this poll to them). But one thing that I have noticed is that a lot of these conventional GOPers have really begun to warm to Paul's message across the spectrum,, especially so where it concerns the Fed. I have some tempered optimism that Paul can, if not win the nomination outright, at least really move the debate in that direction.

  • Doc S||

    If only someone could get rand a working toilet.

  • Juice||

    I agree. He wins online polls and scores about 10-15% in regular polls, but when election day comes, he gets 1-2%.

    10% on a recent poll is nothing to get excited about. 2012 will largely be a rehash of 2008 without the same number of new converts.

  • robc||

    You are ignoring the other half of the poll, showing him closest to Obama.

    If he has learned anything from his son (as SIV suggests he should) it is that the GOP nomination is the hard part. Then its cruise to election.

  • Joe M||

    He got close to, and in some cases more than, 10% of the vote in numerous primaries in 2008.

  • cynical||

    Maybe. Thing is, there are probably more Obama supporters than Paul supporters in this country. But the way things are going, they'll probably be dejected and apathetic in 2012, and Paul supporters are a pretty enthusiastic bunch. Fuck, I hate voting, but I'll go for Paul.

  • CE||

    Paul has the same hard core of 10% he always has...

    Except that it used to be 2%, then 5%, and now it's hitting double digits. Face it, Ron Paul's support is growing nationally.

    If it continues, the primary objection most people have to him (he's perceived as a long shot) will be gone.... and then he will really gain popularity.

  • Max||

    Max has made his last post|11.17.10 @ 7:20PM|#
    Max|6.24.10 @ 3:29PM|#

    Go suck ron puals dick, morons. You peeple are fucking retarded. I`m done coming to this wingnut sight. this is my last post.

  • Lord Googoo||

    LA, LA, LA, LA, LA, LA, LA, LA, LA, LA, LA, LA!!!

    YOU HAVE BEEN TOSSED INTO THE ASH-HEAP!

  • Pusillanonymous||

    That's why incif can suck. It was a spoof and a running joke about Max's foot stomping and teenage girl-esque threats. Here's the post:

    Max has made his last post|11.17.10 @ 7:20PM|#
    Max|6.24.10 @ 3:29PM|#

    Go suck ron puals dick, morons. You peeple are fucking retarded. I`m done coming to this wingnut sight. this is my last post.

  • Lord Googoo||

    Small price to pay.

  • cynical||

    Please bless us with some small portion of the sweet oblivion that caresses your senses.

    I.e., gloating about incifing people is fucking obnoxious. Stop it. No one gives a shit, least of all the resident trolls, since you're still fucking blindly feeding them.

  • Joe M||

    Isn't it wonderful how they release this poll, then spend the entire article saying that it tells us nothing? I'm guessing that's because Ron Paul is polling so well. For example:

    Who does best against Obama? Paul.... "It should be obvious to any political observer that hypothetical general election match-ups at this stage of the game have relatively little predictive value," says Holland.

    Keep on marginalizing, bitches.

  • ||

    The MSM is so used to picking frontrunners and "the issues of the day" and they're going to keep going as if that's still and will always be the case.

  • MNG||

    I'm very interested to see how this goes down. Johnson needs to think prison and go after the biggest guy in the yard (other than Paul). That's likely Romney, and there is so very much to attack him on. What should he choose?

  • Lord Googoo||

    LA!

  • ||

    Romney is not in the debate.

    Pawlenty is the top target (unless you have the balls to attack the insanity of Santorum - "Hey Santorum! Why did you bring your wife's dead fetus home to "meet" the kids? Are you fucking crazy?")

    That would win many votes.

  • MNG||

    Why is Romney not in, did it not poll well?

  • ||

    Only those who have officially formed exploratory committees and there are two other requirements are invited.

    Only five are in:

    Pawlenty
    Paul
    Johnson
    Santorum
    Cain

    thats it.

  • SIV||

    Cain wins the debate in South Carolina.
    The racist lamestream media will dismiss him as a hankie-head.

  • Otto||

    I think the MSM will simply try to ridicule Cain as just a pizza maker. It'll be the rank-and-file lefties who will say he's an Uncle Tom.

    The douchebag center has already started saying that Paul and Johnson "don't have a chance" and are "fringe" candidates - since wanting to not kill, jail, or tax people is just plain wacky.

  • SIV||

    I suspect Cain is going to run strong this cycle.He can pitch an economic strategy like he knows what he's talking about. The first strategy will be to marginalize him but if he gets traction watch out. The left will go racial because that's what they think their opponents would do.

  • Lord Googoo||

    LA, LA!

  • Pusillanonymous||

    rather, shut the fuck up.

  • Rick Santorum||

    Because that's what foamy fecal-semen-lube concoctions do.

  • dan savage||

    that's right big boy

  • MNG||

    How do you attack Tim Pawlenty? He's more like the kind of guy you just ignore until they slink away.

  • ola||

    Just ask Tim how much more taxpayer money does he want to spend incarcerating americans using marijuana. How many more americans does Tim want to arrest every year for drugs? Isn't 1,600,000 a year good enough or should we double it Tim? How many more prisons do you want to build Tim? These are just a few to get started.

  • ||

    Since Romney won't be in attendance, attacking him will be kind of weird.

    I'm not disagreeing, mind you, I'm just not sure how it would play to spend precious debate minutes ignoring the people you are supposed to be debating, and arguing with someone who isn't there.

    Now, if this debate turns into a kind of panel on how each of them would be better than Romney, that would be cool.

  • ola||

    Ron Paul can ask Romney if he really believes that the american indians are the lost tribe of israel. I mean really lost.

  • Sudden||

    Now, if this debate turns into a kind of panel on how each of them would be better than Romney, that would be cool.

    Not sure if I agree there RC. I think the problem with that particular approach is that it then makes Romney appear as the presumptive nominee. Especially in the GOP, that inertia as the presumptive nominee is considered gold. If everyone starts running against Romney, the GOP rank and file will begin thinking that Romney is the man annointed by the powers that be and peeling support away from him will be harder.

    If I was running, I'd act like I already won the damn nomination, and that all this debating was just an opportunity for me to really motivate the base.

  • CE||

    If I was running, I'd act like I already won the damn nomination, and that all this debating was just an opportunity for me to really motivate the base.

    From your keyboard to Ron Paul's brain, hopefully....

  • CrackertyAssCracker||

    Screw it. Attack Trump. It doesn't even matter how you attack him. If you want attention, pick something stupid and attack Trump about it.

  • Otto||

    Trump is easy. Ask if someone who has so many failed businesses and bankruptcies should be in charge of other people's money. Ever.

  • ||

    Where can we watch this onlineeee?!?!?!?!

  • MNG||

    I'm also interested to see how Johnson deals with abortion. I'm afraid the GOP base will beat him to death with that club...He needs a good line on that.

  • MWG (Not MNG)||

    God help the republicans if they decide to start flinging feces over social issues like abortion... though a discussion on the WOD might make for some interesting TV viewing.

  • ||

    God help the republicans if they decide to start flinging feces over social issues like abortion...

    They cannot help themselves. Abortion is the Tourette's yelp of the GOP.

  • SIV||

    Voters are evenly split on the issue and most people like babies.

  • Tony||

    Didn't Romney flip-flop on this? Silly question I know, as it is something on which he has expressed an opinion more than once.

    I can't envision anything but a christianer-than-thou bloodbath in this GOP primary.

  • Paul||

    I can't envision anything but a christianer-than-thou bloodbath in this GOP primary.

    If GOP advisers are asleep or fucking with their iPhones, maybe. Like Gun Control with the Democrats, surely the GOP realizes that they only shore up their christianer-than-thou purity base, which they already have with that shit.

  • Tony||

    They certainly don't need cultural issues in the general this year since they have Obama to be the focus of their fear and hatred. But they have to get through the primaries first and the alleged frontrunner is a Mormon abortion flip-flopper. I know I can't wait.

  • ||

    It is an obsession far out of proportion to the problem. And they know it would destroy them if they ever cave into the so-cons and out-right ban it. It is nothing more than red meat for a very, very over-fed base. Shut up about it and gay people for a few election cycles and the Democrats would be wandering in the outer darkness for decades.

    But they can't. They can't stop. They have to keep bringing it up over and over again.

  • Paul||

    They cannot help themselves. Abortion is the Tourette's yelp of the GOP.

    Sort of the right's version of "Jim Crow!!11!1one!!!" every time someone mentions federalism?

  • ||

    Close, but in the case of racism the subject doesn't completely alienate a huge swath of swing voters.

  • Doc S||

    Time to give every fetus the right to vote!

  • ||

    Why is Romney not in, did it not poll well?

    I suspect he's trying to play the dauphin, here, the presumptive nominee, who needn't lower himself to dealing with the hoi polloi.

  • Fluffy||

    Romney's not in because he knows the minute he shows his hair product head it's getting taken off by every other candidate.

    Romney is like a passed out drunk girl at a frat party as soon as he comes out of his fortress of magic underwear.

  • ||

    Of course Ron Paul can beat Obama. But, the GOP is stupid they will insist on Newt or Mitt.

  • SIV||

    Romney=gun control, socialized medicine,abortion-on-demand People's Republic of Taxachussets YANKEE!

    Newt backed all the RINOs in 2010 and has a nice global warming PSA with Nancy Pelosi AND is of poor moral character(Romney's only strength).

    They're both roadkill on toast in 2012.

  • Colin||

    I wonder how well he'd poll against Obama if people knew about the newsletters.

  • ||

    What was that about Tourette's?

  • Joe M||

    On, and the Ron Paul money bomb is already over half a million bucks.

  • Fluffy||

    I was a little concerned that that seemed a little low.

  • Joe M||

    It might ramp up as people get home from work.

  • MarineForRonPaul||

    Dr. Ron Paul you have all my respect. Your ideas mean so much to me. After serving 6 years in Iraq we need to come home. My friends and I are behind you 100%. Thank you Ron Paul!

  • ||

    If Huckabee gets in, they're going to lose the independents again.

  • ||

    I am an independent. Although I don't I agree with Huck on everything, he is my pick for 2012.

    FYI, Huckabee polled quite strongly among indies in all of the general election polls (w/ R/I/D crosstabs) taken so far.

  • ||

    Unless CNN polled every adult in the U.S. capable of voting, and every one of them was completely truthful, I'd say their margin of error is more like seventy to eighty percent. I base that on the amount of polls that I've seen go sideways. Statistics like this are a fine indicator that real science should investigate, but they are not a reliable indicator of what really is happening.

  • CE||

    The polls were pretty close last time around, maybe +/- 5 percent. We Ron Paul supporters claimed they were biased and missing out on a lot of grassroots support, but they were an accurate predictor of how well Ron Paul did in primary states.

    In caucus and convention states he did much better than the polls predicted, because only the most motivated supporters turn out for those.

  • ||

    I heard Ron Paul being interviewed on the radio a week or so ago by Steve Malsburg in NYC. He is absolutely a MORON when it comes to international policy. His supporters are simply loading the ballot box and he is going NOWHERE.

  • CE||

    His supporters are simply loading the ballot box...

    It's called "democracy." Everyone seems to be all for it, until the other side's candidate wins.

  • CE||

    He is absolutely a MORON when it comes to international policy.

    Yes, imagine a USA that doesn't have troops stationed around the world, that doesn't bomb Arab nations at the drop of a hat, that tries to set a positive example of the power of liberty to create a just and economically successful society, and that engages the world in peaceful and free trade, rather than through military occupation and intimidation. How moronic would that be?

  • ||

    I fully agree with you and Ron Paul's foreign policy because I'm an offshore balancer (ie get our allies to do the job because the US guarding them makes us lose comparative advantage). But most Americans, in my opinion, are primacists. They want the US to maintain hegemony. They want to tell other people how to run their lives because they believe the American Way is the only way, even for developing and non-Western countries.

  • JTWilliams||

    Your Machiavellian garbage has no place at "Reason". Conservatives generally understand that the govt basically f---s up everything it touches. And we want those same buffoons in DC to run the globe. I'd love to hear your enlightened views, but only a true IGNORAMUS would call Ron Paul a moron on int'l policy.

  • ||

    What will the GOP vomit forth this time around?

    Ron Paul and his 9/11 Truthers are back. Pothead Gary Johnson explaining how he hates Tea Party conservatives. Donald Trump and his big bankroll that backs mostly Democrats. Mike Huckabee: the GOP's answer to Jimmy Carter. And finally Mitt Romney, the intellectual godfather of ObamaCare. What a pack of lefty losers!

    It looks like Howard Dean is running the GOP these days, and Obama will get his 57-state landslide in 2012.

  • ||

    Brian Doherty, You are a funny guy to claim that you and your compartmentalised conjured up numbers categorize Ron Paul as a long shot candidate running in the back as intellectual obscurity. Clearly and obviously,
    Ron Paul shined last night, and will be the nominated candidate for the Republican presidential candidate, but Fox Corporatism surely can't be allowed to let true opinions be published, it is way too dangerous for the likes of your owners.

    Anyway, nice try cub reporter.

  • ||

    Here we go, all aboard the paultard express! He looked like an old retard up there...Sarah Palin is a hot milf, i mean gilf....

  • ||

    I think it should be mandatory for the die-hard Paul supporters to look at his voting record regarding his district and the politics of his district. But he voted for the Flood Control and Modernization Act of 2007 that would lower NFIP premiums for his district. Parts of Victoria always flood when it rains northwest along the Guadalupe, and the richer people (by ghetto Victoria standards) live nearest to the water. And he voted for aid during Claudette...but he gave a big FU to his district for Ike after he got famous. How does he keep on winning? Probably the black residents that he railed against in the 90s don't vote and he wins the redneck socially conservative vote.

    Come visit the district to see how much it fails. Lord knows we need the tourism after the hurricane.

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