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Health Care: Endgame

Will it pass? Will it fail? I'd bet on the former, but with just a few hours to go before the final vote, even Democrats can't seem to agree on whether or not they have the support they need to pass a health reform bill:

Even on Sunday morning, the vote was clearly too close to call. Rep. John Larson, the chairman of the Democratic caucus, told ABC’s “This Week” program that the votes were in hand. “We have the votes now — as we speak,” he said. But at the same time, Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, the deputy Democratic House whip, told “Fox News Sunday” that the Democrats “don’t have a hard 216 right now.”

Intrade is currently putting the chances of passage at 84 percent, which, if anything, strikes me as too low: The sense I'm getting is that, once Democratic leadership is within two or three votes, Pelosi will effectively be able to will the final votes into existence. But the way things are shaking out, we may not actually know until the vote is taken.

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Energy Healing|8.15.10 @ 7:40AM|

Will have to wait to see the full results.

|8.15.10 @ 2:21PM|

It would be pretty scary if this bill did end up being passed. I personally don't worry about health, i keep my mind occupied with hobbies such as Karaoke

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McEnroe|8.30.10 @ 12:53AM|

A bit late to the discussion, aren't we?? But yeah, time is of the essence.

Matt|8.31.10 @ 7:46AM|

Lol.. have you been keeping up with this at all? What's your opinion of it. PS: you can set up a google alert to stay up to date with news on this, but I'd wager that anything REALLY important will make it through your local TV/radio news for sure. Matt.

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|3.21.10 @ 10:28AM|

Does Reason or its commenters have an official position on repealing this bitch?

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wackyjack|3.21.10 @ 11:51AM|

Any bill to repeal would be vetoed by Obama. So we're looking at 2013 at the earliest. Because even though the Republicans are going to have massive gains this fall, they're not getting a veto-proof majority. Hopefully.

Prolefeed|3.21.10 @ 11:54AM|

A successful bill to repeal would require the Senate to go from 41 Republicans to 60, which they've NEVER had, IIRC, and win the White House, and win the House.

If this bad puppy gets enacted, which it appears likely to do, Democrats will fight tooth and nail to keep it. It is their wet dream.

wackyjack|3.21.10 @ 12:18PM|

The scariest thing is that to repeal this atrocity, we'd be giving Republicans the numbers to do anything they want. Not to mention the precedent. It's not just the bill itself that's gonna screw us all, it's the new process.

And even though I'm generally in the R camp, that is terrifying.

|3.21.10 @ 12:27PM|

Very true. Every action has a re-action. The Democratic jihad in the 80s with the Independent Counsels gave us Monica Lewinksi and Ken Star in the 1990s. What will this give us in the teens? It probably won't be good.

Sanjuro Tsubaki|3.21.10 @ 2:09PM|

Who gives a crap about independent counsels and sex scandals? Real life will go on as always. The point is that with Republicans in control, Democrats presidents and congressmen can't drive the country directly off a cliff. That's what they are trying to do and that's always what they will try to do if no one stops them.

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OMG|3.21.10 @ 10:28AM|

Just saw Wasserman Schultz's appearance on Fox with Ryan. Ryan requested and received a letter on Friday from the CBO that recalculates the effect on the deficit if the Medicare cuts are NOT scored to health care (on the theory that those same moneys are at the same time being applied to the solvency of Medicare).

Her response was to call the CBO numbers and response "manufactured".

Glad to know that the source of the Dems contention that Healthcare reduces the deficit are "manufacturing" numbers.

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hmm |3.21.10 @ 10:38AM|

They have the votes. Saying they don't know which 216 they have means they are deciding who gets to vote no for political cover.

OMG|3.21.10 @ 10:50AM|

True. I predict final vote for will be 217, a two vote buffer - so in November, no democrat in a purple district can be labeled as the vote that pushed through healthcare deform.

|3.21.10 @ 11:01AM|

They have to have 217. If it is 216, then they are all the deciding vote. If it is 217, then they will claim that "it was going to pass anyway so I voted yes to get all of these goodies for the district". I don't think that will buy them much cover. But it is the kind of thing that the Joe Boyle's and MNGs of the world will repeat endlessly with a straight face. And that is something.

|3.21.10 @ 11:35AM|

I don't think the Boyles of the world are terribly influential in red or purple districts.

|3.21.10 @ 11:39AM|

They will take what they can get. And you are right. The Demcorats days of winning in most of the country are going to end today. As a parisan I am laughing my ass off to see their party go over the cliff. As an American I am crying to see this horrible thing passed.

|3.21.10 @ 1:46PM|

As a parisan I am laughing my ass off

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Syd Henderson|3.21.10 @ 10:39AM|

Sunny: It wouldn't get repealed until the Republicans get 60 votes in the Senate, which will be about the time Hell freezes over.

|3.21.10 @ 11:09AM|

The repeal won't get filibustered. It will get vetod. After the reality of losing their majority sets in, the Democrats in the Senate will have a change of heart. Right now they are living in denial. They don't think it will be that bad. When it is that bad, they will be shocked. Also they can vote for repeal knowing it will be vetoed. After November, they won't have any loyalty to the President anyway. They will vote for the repeal and let the country hate him for vetoing it. Basically, the last two years of the Obama administration will be him at war with the rest of the country over this monstrosity. Mark my words, he will not run for re-election.

|3.21.10 @ 11:15AM|

Wow. What alternative universe do you live in?
The GOP will win the Senate this year right after the Nats win the World Series.
And over time, their (the GOP's) obstructionism will work for them just as well as their opposition to Social Security, Medicare, etc. has.

|3.21.10 @ 11:19AM|

Barbara Boxer is even in California. Feingold is down double digits in Wisconsin. Spector is down versus any challenger. Lincoln has a 27% approval rating. Landreius isn't much better. And that was before Obamacare.

They might not take the Senate, but it will be close. The Democrats are done in the House in November. They have no clue how much this is going to be hated. And how angry people are about it. Something like 59 Democratic House members are from districts that voted for McCain. Most of them are like you and living in denial. They honestly think people don't care or whatever. But they will care about this. Whistle past that graveyard all you like.

|3.21.10 @ 11:44AM|

No way the GOP takes back the Senate. They need to swipe 10 seats from Dem incumbents (since Biden is the tiebreaker). Dem incumbents are almost certain to lose in AR, DE, NV, ND. In CO, IN, PA, IL it looks like a tossup for the Dem incumbent seat. So they would have to win all their own incumbents' tossups (KY, MO, NH, OH) and take two of the five seats where the Dem incumbent is tough to beat: NY-Gillebrand, CA, CT, WI, WA.

|3.21.10 @ 11:49AM|

Feingold is down big in Wisconsin. There is going to be a uprising over this. They just fucked with people's healthcare over their objection. They just ended medicare prime. I wouldn't be surprised if every incumbant Democrat loses. They all voted for this.

|3.21.10 @ 12:19PM|

There isn't even an announced Republican candidate in WI yet, so those numbers are meaningless until an actual person has a lead on Feingold. Boxer hasn't yet started to spend her $8M war chest yet, and there are three Republicans beating each other up in the primaries (demon sheep!)

Prolefeed|3.21.10 @ 12:04PM|

fivethirtyeight.com puts the odds of a Republican takeover of the Senate in the 5-10% range, with the most likely outcome being 54 Democrats left.

They did a pretty good job of calling the last election, and have a detailed analysis of how each seat might go.

This, of course, doesn't take into the account the landslide seachange in voter sentiment that UltraPartisan RedTeam John TM is projecting.

|3.21.10 @ 12:18PM|

I think the healthcare bill and the continued tanking of the economy is going to change the projections. Maybe I am wrong. Maybe everyone loves the health care bill and thinks 10% unemployment is AOK. If so that five thrity eight has it right. If not, then I would call them a lagging indicator. And you will see that percentage start to rise this summer.

|3.21.10 @ 12:21PM|

You're talking about the biggest electoral swing since 1932 happening. Doubting it does not mean that we think "everyone loves the health care bill and 10% unemployment".

|3.21.10 @ 12:30PM|

Well, we actually have 16% if you count labor participation. We also have a deficit the likes of which God has never seen. Things are not quite 1932 but they are not like anything else either.

|3.21.10 @ 12:21PM|

And also, I would bet money on the House switching much more than the Senate. But, suppose we are sitting at 53-47 in the Senate with a Republican majority in the House. You don't think creatures like Nelson who are up for re-election in 2012 aren't going to turn against an unpopular Presidnet in hopes of saving their ass?

alan|3.21.10 @ 12:27PM|

fivethirtyeight.com puts the odds of a Republican takeover of the Senate in the 5-10% range, with the most likely outcome being 54 Democrats left.

What was their prediction that a Republican would take Ted Kennedy's throne six months before it happened?

alan|3.21.10 @ 12:37PM|

I'll add, from my own reading of tea leaves I don't think that the Republicans will take over the Senate this year given who is and who is not up for election, but I didn't see the Scott Brown train coming either.

Two years, four years down the road, it is a much safer bet that the Democrats will lose their status for many years after to come. The sweet heart deal with the AHA in the bill that prevents competition and innovation could assure that all by its lonesome without the rest of it this pile of shit coming into play.

Prolefeed|3.21.10 @ 12:39PM|

Dunno if anyone called Scott Brown winning six months in advance, other than Scott Brown.

I'd love to see the Democrats lose both chambers over this, and get thoroughly divided government.

I'd love to see this bill get pulled without a vote because Pelosi fell one vote short.

I'd also like to have a random stranger give me a free Lexus (and not the small Lexus, either), and give my youngest daughter free ponies farting rainbows.

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|3.21.10 @ 11:22AM|

And get it through your thick skull. This is not Social security. This is not handing out checks. This is telling everyone in the country to buy health insurance and what insurance they can buy. It is massively raising the premiums of most of the middle class. It is not a benefit like social Security. It is a mandate and a tax. And unlike social security and medicaire, that really were popular, it is wildly unpopular from the start. The Democrats are going to be hated for a generation or more for doing this.

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dave b.|3.21.10 @ 11:23AM|

Were you born yesterday? NOBODY wants this shit. Democrats have a supermajority and still can only pass it by 1 or 2 votes, hence the reason that they will get killed in the November elections.

Prolefeed|3.21.10 @ 12:05PM|

Democrats HAD a supermajority.

|3.21.10 @ 12:16PM|

And if they still had one, they wouldn't be trying to pass the Senate bill and hope they can fix it later.

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|3.21.10 @ 11:17AM|

Yup.

Mike M.|3.21.10 @ 11:18AM|

Thanks a lot to everyone in America who voted to give the democratic party scum total and absolute power in the government last election. Really great thinking there, people. Outstanding job.

|3.21.10 @ 11:22AM|

But we had to get out of Iraq and repeal the patriot act. I mean the CIA was listening to my phone calls.

SkepticalTexan|3.21.10 @ 11:43AM|

It was also important to close Gitmo.

|3.21.10 @ 11:48AM|

Maybe if your buddies in the GOP had gotten that necessity through their thick skulls in 2006, we wouldn't be in this mess.

Yeah, I'm quietly rooting for the GOP right now just because they're useful for obstructing the Dems' iniquities. But I haven't forgotten that it was THEIR stupidity and THEIR arrogance and THEIR corruption that put the Dems in the position they're in now.

|3.21.10 @ 11:55AM|

The Republicans in Congress were a bunch of craven assholes in the 00s. When they were not stealing, they were cruising for gay sex. But they were never doing anything this horrible and so hard to reverse. And a lot of people were claiming that the Democrats wouldn't really be this bad.

And don't forget that a lot of people claimed that this is exactly what the country needed. We needed to have a full Democratic takeover combined with the worse of the Demcoratic policies to finally kill the country's love affair with big government and allow a swing back to the right place.

Well, we got it. We have a huge big government program that everyone hates. We have a chance to totally destroy those who voted for it in November.

Prolefeed|3.21.10 @ 12:10PM|

We have a huge big government program that everyone hates.

Nah, we are on the verge of having a big government program that more than half of the voters currently hate.

The Democrats are gambling on this being like any other entitlement -- once people who pay little or no taxes start getting freebies, they will reward the Democrats.

Dunno if those political calculations reflect reality. I'd like to think the populace will revolt over this, but large numbers of them fucking thought the Democrats could be trusted to manage the economy, which does not augur well for their critical thinking skills.

|3.21.10 @ 12:14PM|

True. But reality is a harsh mistress and often a good teacher even for the stupid.

Colin|3.21.10 @ 12:58PM|

I'd say the Iraq war was worse than this, although this will negatively affect me on a personal level much more.

Getting in these "Dem. vs. Rep" fights is useless. They're both rotten to the core.

Ben|3.21.10 @ 4:00PM|

Yes, removing Saddam Hussein from power is far worse than a government takeover of the health care industry. Dude, i don't know what you have been smoking, but it must be some damn good shit.

Gushing Cosmotarian|3.21.10 @ 11:25AM|

But... but... but.... He's Our First Black President!

dave b.|3.21.10 @ 11:35AM|

Thank GWB, who at the time was the worst president in known history.

SkepticalTexan|3.21.10 @ 11:44AM|

GWB was worst president until January 2009, that's for sure.

Prolefeed|3.21.10 @ 12:14PM|

Worse than FDR or Wilson or LBJ or Teddy Roosevelt or ...

Sorry, doesn't compute. You might be able to argue he was marginally worse than Carter and Nixon, but I'm not gonna give you LBJ, and I sure as fuck won't concede FDR or Wilson. Not even close on those two.

Comrade Zero|3.21.10 @ 12:40PM|

Worst ever or not, he completely fucked things up at the wrong time. That must be remembered against him.

Typical Libertarian|3.21.10 @ 5:55PM|

Hey, we really dodged a bullet with that dumb Alaskan last election didn't we?

|3.21.10 @ 12:29PM|

What, you thought it was going to last forever?

|3.21.10 @ 7:46PM|

Actually I think the US died a long time ago.

Mike M.|3.21.10 @ 10:41AM|

There are at least a couple of legitimate constitutional grounds on which to challenge this nasty, rancid piece of sausage, and there will be lawsuits files within a matter of days that will do just that.

Syd Henderson|3.21.10 @ 10:44AM|

Make that 67 votes to repeal it while Obama's in office.

Colin|3.21.10 @ 1:00PM|

Plus 2/3 of the House.

|3.21.10 @ 10:47AM|

My mommy always said there were no monsters - no real ones - but there are.

|3.21.10 @ 10:49AM|

The end game is pretty simple. Was Big med able to pay off enough law makers to sway the vote in their favor or not? Its the American Way!

Lou
www.web-invisibility.at.tc

|3.21.10 @ 12:31PM|

Spam-bot is definitely in the top 10% of Hit-and-Run commenters.

Pick it up people!

ed|3.21.10 @ 10:54AM|

I'm just relieved that the evil of having to pay for the uninsured's health care through higher premiums will now be remedied by the evil of having to pay for the uninsured's health care through higher taxes and rationing.

Comrade Zero|3.21.10 @ 10:58AM|

Just be glad it wasn't the other way around!

|3.21.10 @ 11:11AM|

The mandate will be tied up in court for years. States have already passed laws outlawing such a mandate. Despite what RC and the rest of the "this is the end of the world caucus" tell you, the mandate will be enjoined. It has to be. The issue will go to the Supreme Court and not be decided until next spring.

|3.21.10 @ 11:50AM|

State laws outlawing the mandate will have precisely the same effect on the IRS as state laws legalizing medical marijuana have on the DEA.

|3.21.10 @ 11:56AM|

The states haven't sued the feds over medical marijuana. They are going to sue the feds over the mandate.

Colin|3.21.10 @ 1:05PM|

It all depends on how the Supreme Court interprets it. We all know that the entire Court lets their personal beliefs get in the way of the Constitution. If the 4 conservatives and Kennedy want to stop it, they'll find a rationale for it, just like they somehow found a rationale for that ridiculous medical marijuana decision.

And, in this particular case, I hope they do.

The Libertarian Guy|3.21.10 @ 1:47PM|

The med-pot advocates want states' rights on that issue, but when it comes to a federal health insurance mandate... *crickets*

Comrade Zero|3.21.10 @ 11:15AM|

Okay, maybe this'll be another "Real ID" moment. But what's going for HCR is what P Brooks mentioned below. There's gonna be a chorus shouting "WON'T SOMEONE THINK OF THE CHILDREN!!" at every turn, whereas few people really knew about Real ID.

Comrade Zero|3.21.10 @ 11:39AM|

Add to that there are still millions of idiots who think this means a free ride. It's win or lose today.

|3.21.10 @ 11:10AM|

Won't somebody think of the anecdotes?

Some body's mother might will DIE!!1.

|3.21.10 @ 11:15AM|

to pass a health reform bill:

Stop calling it that, goddammit.

Whatever it is, it's not about health care.

|3.21.10 @ 11:25AM|

Well, that's that for me. I don't think I can devote another excruciating day to parsing projected vote counts and watching "no" votes get flipped and being disappointed by traitors, all the way up to the inevitable conclusion.

So CLICK -- off goes Drudge, off goes Google News, off goes Hit & Run. I'm gonna go bury myself in a music project for the rest of the day.

See y'all tomorrow in the brave new world.

Johnny Longtorso|3.21.10 @ 11:27AM|

Constitutional challenges are a win-win for the Dems. The mandate was a sweetener to get the insurance companies on board, but will be immediately unpopular.

Longtorso prediction: The constitutionality of the mandate will only get a token defense because they want to lose. The most immediately painful part of ObamaCare will be gone (thus screwing over the insurance companies and saving Dems from blowback over it), and the requirements of the law, minus the extra revenue from the mandated purchases, will drive health insurers out of business. The free market, having 'failed', will then 'require' us to implement single payer.

Comrade Zero|3.21.10 @ 11:29AM|

You've got a devious mind JL

Comrade Zero|3.21.10 @ 11:29AM|

I like that

|3.21.10 @ 11:30AM|

That makes sense sadly. They have no desire to do anything but kill the current system. Steny Hoyer one of the lowest creatures there said yesterday "repeal which reforms". I wouldn't be surprised if there was some half assed fix proposed next spring to try to placate the voters. But the end game as you note is to destroy as much of the current system as possible.

|3.21.10 @ 11:52AM|

And then a couple of years into the program, Obama will admit that "mistakes were made" and say that whether the bill was a good idea or not, we need to stay the course.

|3.21.10 @ 11:58AM|

Obama will never admit any mistake was ever made, at least not by him.

|3.21.10 @ 12:05PM|

Just like his predecessor! Too bad for all of us white folks, as even one duplicitous power-hungry fuckup in the White House dooms his entire race to presidential failure according to you.

|3.21.10 @ 12:09PM|

I never said that. I said that there will not be another black president after this. First, the Republicans will never run one. They don't have enough black voters. Second, the country will assume any black Demcorat is another Obama no matter how hard he claims not to be. I am not saying that is a good thing. I am just saying that is how it is going to work.

Prolefeed|3.21.10 @ 12:19PM|

You mean, the same way they would never elect a black man as the RNC chair?

A black conservative/libertarian like Thomas Sowell against some white Democrat would be an awesome way to break the 90%+ lock Democrats have on black voters.

|3.21.10 @ 12:23PM|

The media and the black estblishment would destroy Sowell. I like Sowell. And if you got a way to make him President, you have my vote. But he is a writer not a politician. The Democratic Party is like church for the black community. It is just what they do. And the race hustlers will destroy and call anyone who dissents an Uncle Tom. Would love to see it. But I can't see it happening.

|3.21.10 @ 12:35PM|

The Democratic Party is like church for the black community. It is just what they do.

I guess you didn't ever say this, either. Disgusting. Imagine what you would say if someone said that the GOP was church for pro-lifers -- another group that reliably votes for a party that gives them nothing but rhetoric.

|3.21.10 @ 12:38PM|

Black people vote 90% Demcorat in every election despite being fairly culturally conservative as a group. I can't ever see them voting Republican. It has been 40 years of this. Why would it change?

The Libertarian Guy|3.21.10 @ 1:51PM|

The Democratic Party is like church for the black community

I kinda agree with that. Whenever a black person goes right-of-center, they get treated like Scientology outcasts. You don't leave The Cult unscathed.

|3.21.10 @ 12:37PM|

And if you remember, the "race hustlers" (I assume you mean Jesse Jackson, Sharpton, etc) were pretty cold towards Obama at first too, questioning whether he was really black given his history. That didn't stop him from getting black support.

|3.21.10 @ 12:52PM|

I think Herman Cain could win a Republican primary, despite losing one to that fool Johnny Isackson

alan|3.21.10 @ 12:50PM|

Just like his predecessor! Too bad for all of us white folks, as even one duplicitous power-hungry fuckup in the White House dooms his entire race to presidential failure according to you.

That is why I come here. The political correctness and having to walk on eggshells in fear I may offend someone. So what if he said it? Goddamn, get over it.

|3.21.10 @ 1:00PM|

I didn't suggest banning John or deleting his comments, bud.

alan|3.21.10 @ 1:00PM|

I would normally have couched that with some humor but I'm not feeling very funny today. Sober Sunday, Bloody Sober Sunday.

|3.21.10 @ 11:32AM|

One other point though. The whole point of the mandate is so that the government can tell you what constitutes health insurance. That allows them to control all of the insurance coverage of everyone in America. Without the mandate, they have a hard time doing the kind of damage they want.

USSA|3.21.10 @ 11:28AM|

Done deal bitches.

|3.21.10 @ 11:33AM|

My wife works with a woman who's just gotten pregnant with her third kid by a third father. She's already using the full smorgasbord of g'mint services.
I'm glad this woman is finally going to get the health care that is her God-given right.

Johnny Longtorso|3.21.10 @ 11:35AM|

The whole point of the mandate is so that the government can tell you what constitutes health insurance.

They can do that with the parts of the law that say what insurance can be sold - they don't need the part abut you having to buy it. If they can make insurance more expensive (so you won't buy it), and give you incentive to wait until you're sick with "existing condition" coverage, they can create "market failure".

MNG will cheer this, even if he claims to oppose this particular law.

|3.21.10 @ 11:38AM|

That is true. But I would point out that the heart of the bill is the things we are talking about. It is really not an entitlement. These kinds of rules are the things that will be wildly unpopular and likely to be repealed. This is not handing out checks. It is mostly driving up the price of insurance and doing everything to destroy the current system.

Johnny Longtorso|3.21.10 @ 11:40AM|

NY Times: The Real Arithmetic of Health Care Reform

$|3.21.10 @ 11:41AM|

What is the cost-benefit analysis if I continue to purchase and own a high-deductible low-benefits plan and pay the fine? Will such things exist any longer?

When one thinks it through, one might get the impression that killing upstart competitors is the goal here.

SkepticalTexan|3.21.10 @ 11:55AM|

High-deductible HSA-type accounts will be a thing of the past.

It would be better to drop coverage and pay the fine. Use the old HSA account to pay for routine stuff. You'd only want to get an approved insurance plan if you got cancer or something. With the pre-existing condition mandate, there's no problem with that.

That's my tentative plan, anyway.

josey|3.21.10 @ 12:15PM|

You don't say.

Are you actually implying that big business, which spends so much money electing and lobbying congress, might possibly be getting its money's worth? Or, that a regulator, who in many cases, recently served as CEO for one or more of the very businesses that he is now in a position to regulate, may not have sincerely adopted the best interest of small business upon taking public office?

I mean, really, how jaded can you get?

|3.21.10 @ 1:23PM|

Here in MASS, no such "just the basics" plan exists any longer. :(

Johnny Longtorso|3.21.10 @ 11:41AM|

These kinds of rules are the things that will be wildly unpopular and likely to be repealed. This is not handing out checks. It is mostly driving up the price of insurance

That won't be the fault of ObamaCare, that will be "market failure". They really can't blame the mandate on anyone else. Higher prices are more vulnerable to lies.

Johnny Longtorso|3.21.10 @ 11:45AM|

And the lack of a mandate will put more pressure in prices to rise, thus leading to more "market failure"

|3.21.10 @ 11:52AM|

I think the rubes are wise to that game. You can get away with that kind of thinking when you do a small change in the law that no one really knows about. For example few people know anything about FANNIE and FREDDIE. Thus, they don't know what role those things played in the mortgage boom.

But everyone will know about this. The Dems have sold this as a pancea. They will own health care. And they will own the warts of it to. Every time someone has to pay more money or wait in line fairly or unfairly they are going to blame this bill.

SkepticalTexan|3.21.10 @ 11:57AM|

You give the rubes too much credit, I'm afraid.

alan|3.21.10 @ 12:55PM|

You give the rubes too much credit, I'm afraid.

In the long run, the Social Darwinism sparked by this bill will take care of that.

Comrade Zero|3.21.10 @ 11:57AM|

Yeah, but so what? We all gripe at the SS and Medicare deductions, but that doesn't stop Dems getting elected. They're right about one thing. If this passes it's likely here to stay, no matter how bad it is.

dave b.|3.21.10 @ 11:59AM|

That is unfortunately true. I'm predicting full single payer within 10 years.

|3.21.10 @ 12:01PM|

No one gripes about SS and Medicare. People like those taxes and those programs. They see those taxes as going to help the old and the sick. That may not be true, but that is how they see it. People like the benefits fo Medicare and Social Security. They mostly go to the middle class. That is why they are popular. This bill does nothing but tax and fuck with the middle class. That is why people hate it. And that is why they will hate the Demcorats for generations over this.

Johnny Longtorso|3.21.10 @ 12:02PM|

Repeat the words "market failure" over and over and people will demand govt help w/ the problems created by govt 'help'.

|3.21.10 @ 12:06PM|

No. People will finally demand an end to all of this shit. If they didn't think this was going to fuck them, they would support the plan.

Comrade Zero|3.21.10 @ 12:08PM|

There also millions of voting poor who don't understand how this will fuck them in the long run. That's why playing the Market Failure card will work well enough. It will collapse at one point, sure, but it will go kicking and screaming.

|3.21.10 @ 12:11PM|

The poor don't mean shit. The middle class is where the power is. That is how we got into this mess. The big government programs of the past, social security and medicare, and college loans, Fannie and Freddie don't benefit the poor. They benefit the middle class. That is why they are popular and how they got expanded so much. They have finally come up with a social program that explicityly fucks the middle class rather than bribing them. That changes everything.

dave b.|3.21.10 @ 12:20PM|

Your opposition to this is admirable, but you forget that the poor mean everything. They will continue to vote your money into their pockets.

|3.21.10 @ 12:25PM|

Lots of middle class are in the "don't pay taxes" group. Again, taxing the rich is another example of bribing the middle class. But this bill doesn't do that.

The Libertarian Guy|3.21.10 @ 1:58PM|

John, HCR is bribery, plain and simple. It's the same as the wealth-redistribution angle - get the gullible poor to go along with the IDEA, and you've got a virtual lifetime voter base, even if the poor never get an extra bit of foldin' money in their pockets.

Comrade Zero|3.21.10 @ 12:21PM|

Their votes count, even if they don't. And all too many that I know think they're on easy street with this, not realizing this essentially locks them into dependence.

|3.21.10 @ 12:40PM|

Historically, poor people have extremely low voter turnout rates. Not to mention that they're useless as campaign contributors and even volunteers, which is even more important than simply contributing a vote.

Comrade Zero|3.21.10 @ 12:43PM|

I'm thinking more of the working poor rather than your average wino. They're there for middle-class guilt pressure if nothing else, though.

|3.21.10 @ 2:43PM|

No one has any idea of precisely what this bill will do, e.g., how it will be implemented, how it will affect care, which parts will be struck down by the courts.

We're betting 1/6th of our economy on a crap shoot.

Have a nice day.

wackyjack|3.21.10 @ 11:59AM|

So here's the new bet, because if there is a vote, it will pass (I'm with the others thinking 217 or even 218).

Tomorrow, will insurance stocks end up or down?

Comrade Zero|3.21.10 @ 12:02PM|

Better question: How long will stocks in insurance companies exist?

wackyjack|3.21.10 @ 12:04PM|

They'll always exist, they'll just be pronounced guv-ern-ment-bonds.

dave b.|3.21.10 @ 12:13PM|

No one who doesn't have insurance is going to run out and buy it. It's cheaper to pay the penalty than to actually purchase insurance, and since the Dems have guaranteed coverage for pre-existing conditions, then there's no incentive to buy it. The suckers will keep paying higher premiums and the freeloaders will wait until something happens.

wackyjack|3.21.10 @ 12:50PM|

I never bought that argument. In the marginal case, that's what will happen. But for it to occur on a large scale, people would have to be rational actors.

Johnny Longtorso|3.21.10 @ 12:00PM|

For example few people know anything about FANNIE and FREDDIE. Thus, they don't know what role those things played in the mortgage boom.

Just about everyone knows those agencies exist. Their damage is attributed to "market failure". That's pretty much my point.

|3.21.10 @ 12:02PM|

This is not Freddie and Fannie. If people were as dumb as you and the Demcorats think they are, they would support this bill. The fact that it is so unpopular tells you they know what it is going to do and will know who to blame when those things happen.

|3.21.10 @ 12:08PM|

It's attributed to "market failure" by the MSM and political class. Thankfully, their pronouncements are looked on with ever more distrust by most of the electorate.

Johnny Longtorso|3.21.10 @ 12:05PM|

If people were as dumb as you and the Demcorats think they are, they would support this bill.

W/ the proper demagoguery and gerrymandering, you don't need a majority to be that dumb.

|3.21.10 @ 12:08PM|

You can gerrymander to some degree. But you can't gerrymander when 60% of the country and most of the voting middle class are pissed.

Johnny Longtorso|3.21.10 @ 12:10PM|

But you can't gerrymander when 60% of the country and most of the voting middle class are pissed.

The majority of the country are net tax consumers. Gerrymandering, fear mongering ("you hate it, but the GOP will take it and things you like"), and vote buying w/ your tax dollars will keep the Dems competitive until ObamaCare creates too much dependency to ever hold Dems accountable long-term

$|3.21.10 @ 12:10PM|

Forgive me for my eternal and naïve optimism, however, I believe this bill will fail come roll-call time. And it will fail by a lot - there is going to be a "bank-run" style fleeing from this legislation come vote time.

Stupak's amendment is going to be introduced as a motion to recommit, and will pass. That will put pro-"choice" Democratic congresspersons in a tough bind: do you vote for the abortion-limiting new bill to go to the Senate, or do you run and claim that the whole bill had become "unconscionable" thanks to the Republicans?

Also, if Brian Baird and Marion Berry vote "no", I think that is going to strengthen the rest of the Stupak-clan. An additional note: many of the "leaning no" votes are front-loaded in the alphabet, so their votes are especially crucial.

josey|3.21.10 @ 12:26PM|

Ha, that would be a cute development; governance by alphabetic precedence. Welcome to the United States of Sesame Street. Bert wins, with Big Bird coming in a close second. Oscar never had a chance.

The Libertarian Guy|3.21.10 @ 2:01PM|

I say we go with the Klingon method - you want to be captain of the ship, and eventually emperor, you kill your superiors in combat.

Ben|3.21.10 @ 4:06PM|

Obama then should be easy to take out, considering he really is a Nancy boy who is completely henpecked by his Klingon-looking wife.

Comrade Zero|3.21.10 @ 12:45PM|

Let's hope that these people can respond to shame. Odds are against it, but let's not lose hope completely.

|8.4.10 @ 10:36PM|

I'm with you Comrade. I really doubt people can respond to the shame. You're absolutely right that odds are against it. I haven't lost hope and won't lose hope because I voted for hope. United States of Sesame Street isn't very funny. Good try though. I think the health care reform bill may not be taken as serious as other people think. Ben that's really inappropriate to say he would be easy to take out. Why would you try and take a brother out like that? It doesn't make sense. Just like the chewbacca defense.

Johnny Longtorso|3.21.10 @ 12:12PM|

How popular were term limits w/ the voters and for how long? Do we have those, or do things that threaten incumbants disappear no matter what the voters want? The voters don't matter; you can get as angry as you want. You don't count.

|3.21.10 @ 12:15PM|

That is why we have comprehensive immigration reform. The entire educated and political class loves open borders. The majority of the population hates it. Sometimes opinions do matter.

josey|3.21.10 @ 12:29PM|

I have never understood the idea behind term limits; it reeks of magical thinking. Who would you rather be ruled by: a nut who is worrying about being re-elected, or one who isn't?

$|3.21.10 @ 12:37PM|

The logic behind it is twofold:

1. Someone at the end of their time will vote his principles. Someone who is constantly worried about reelection will continually defer to those who bankroll him and;

2. Term limits reduce the ability of certain legislators to become "tied" to one sector. For example, do you think that Chris Dodd would be synonymous with "banks" if he did not have 30 years in the Senate to cement his status?

Prolefeed|3.21.10 @ 12:46PM|

You forgot this: it takes time to learn how to steal with proficiency. Term limits puts a monkey wrench in the theft.

And, did you enjoy four fucking terms of FDR? There's a good reason that constitutional amendment passed.

wackyjack|3.21.10 @ 12:54PM|

Maybe. Or, they will vote for who bankrolled them into office, because they're leaving soon anyways.

I like term limits, but it vaguely smells of lessening accountability.

josey|3.21.10 @ 1:12PM|

Thanks; while I appreciate the articulation, which is much more rigorous than I commonly see regarding this question, I still have to say that I see the underlying reasoning as tenuous:

1. I'm much more wary of an ideology-driven legislator than than I am of a corruption-driven one. Look at the vote today; many of these people, even in the absence of term limits, are willing to delude themselves into thinking that their yes vote will not directly correlate with their being voted out. Now, what would be the result if you explicitly removed even that remaining shred of self-interest based motivation? My contention is that Pelosi wouldn't be struggling to get 216 today; rather, we'd have a full single-payer system, passed last summer, and being implemented as we speak. Ditto for GOP-style legislation, whenever they hold a majority. We already have to endure a legislative rollercoaster; it just seems to me that the net result of term limits would only be to make the peaks and valleys all the more random and drastic.

2. there is a nearly infinite supply of potential legislators which come perfectly pre-tied to any particular interest you care to name. They're expendable and interchangeable. I don't see how term limits changes anything here, other than to purposefully ban whatever vote-based restraint, however anemic it may be, currently exists.

Rhywun|3.21.10 @ 10:45PM|

I used to be firmly against term-limits on principle; they struck me as "undemocratic". If the people wanna vote in the same idiots over and over, who am I to criticize? I changed my opinion recently when I realized that the absence of term limits merely allows the most canny politicians to accrue massively unwarranted amounts of power, enabling them to ram their nonsense down our throats.

On the other hand... here in NYC the city council managed to vote down their own term limits, against the wishes of the voters... and now we have the most radical council ever, packed with young go-getters fresh off the "activist" circuit. I dunno which was worse, the old Tammany-style power players, or the new progressive-style pols who are eager to "get things done".

Rhywun|3.21.10 @ 10:47PM|

Egad... I meant imply that the brief existence of term limits turned over the entire council and gave us the progressive go-getters. Sorry for the nonsensical post :)

|3.21.10 @ 2:45PM|

California's legislature has term limits.

Johnny Longtorso|3.21.10 @ 12:17PM|

John, the only immigration reform we'll ever get (my personal preference for open borders not withstanding) is a nationwide ID system to be used to track the two of us.

|3.21.10 @ 12:27PM|

I think the power if incumbency trumps short term voter anger. That's why the Democrats are so desperate to get this thing done and behind them; the more breathing room they have between this vote and the election, the better off they are.

The worst aspects of this thing won't manifest themselves for several years.

(I think insurance stocks will be up if this thing passes.)

Johnny Longtorso|3.21.10 @ 12:32PM|

Daily Kos: On Motions to Recommit and their danger to health care
When Dems were in the minority, they used them with varying degrees of success to set up tough votes for the majority Republicans, forcing them to go on record voting against stuff they would ordinarily perhaps want to vote for, but couldn't because to do so would either kill the bill they were working on or create some kind of a poison pill. It was a strategy that made the most of the tools afforded to the minority, but it rarely worked in terms of making substantive changes to legislation that actually inured to the political benefit of Democrats.

It wasn't a new invention, but it was one that minority Democrats used as part of a comprehensive effort of framing differences between themselves and Republicans, with an eye toward the elections that would one day let them retake control of the House, and in that incarnation, the plan's architect was then House Democratic Caucus Chair Rahm Emanuel.

It was a fine plan for Democrats in the minority, but there was never any effort made to remind Members that things might have to change once Democrats were in the majority....

|3.21.10 @ 12:32PM|

And besides- will middle-class "progressives" really desert the Democratic Party? For whom will they vote? There's only one Bernie Sanders.

|3.21.10 @ 12:33PM|

ps- I think this is "exactly" what Pelosi is counting on.

wackyjack|3.21.10 @ 12:58PM|

Don't forget that in any given election, only about half of the people cast a vote. It is conceivable that the stoners come out of the woodwork to throw a third party into play.

*note: This is about as likely to happen as Obama riding an actual unicorn into the House chamber.

|3.21.10 @ 2:52PM|

It averages far fewer than half during midterm elections.

http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0781453.html

|3.21.10 @ 12:36PM|

Who would you rather be ruled by: a nut who is worrying about being re-elected, or one who isn't?

One who hasn't had time to be completely corrupted by the Beltway disease.

|3.21.10 @ 12:45PM|

Considering you get 5 years of nuttiness and 1 year of worrying about being re-elected, that's not much of a consideration.

Prolefeed|3.21.10 @ 12:48PM|

You also get 6 years of constantly shilling for re-election funds. So, five years of appeasing donors, one year of appeasing voters.

Comrade Zero|3.21.10 @ 12:55PM|

Only 133 comments so far? Since Tony and Chad are parked in front of CNN with their pants down they aren't here to stir the shit up, eh?

dave b.|3.21.10 @ 1:07PM|

They'll be here tomorrow to gloat. Count on it.

alan|3.21.10 @ 1:17PM|

They'll be here tomorrow to gloat. Count on it.

*cough**cough*, I think my newly acquired high risk lifestyle has given me the case of TB. You've got two hundred bucks I can borrow for treatments, Chad. Oh, what the fuck am I asking you for your money. Hey, health administrator, can you reach into that guy's wallet and give me two hundred bucks?

Peetsker|3.21.10 @ 12:59PM|

barak obama is a lying, bullshitting, fact-distorting, sleazy, communistwhoremotherfucking, pedo-plaything, piece of shit that I wouldn't even deign to piss on. And his militant commie beard-wife too.

$|3.21.10 @ 1:12PM|

NBC currently reporting that Stupak has flipped.

*sigh*

dave b.|3.21.10 @ 1:13PM|

They just bought Stupak. No separate motion for abortion restrictions, will have an executive order instead.

$|3.21.10 @ 1:18PM|

Two lessons Mr. Stupak should learn:

1. Live by the executive order, die by the executive order.

2. Money is fungible. His goal will not be achieved here. Separating accounts is meaningless.

wackyjack|3.21.10 @ 1:29PM|

It actually makes sense. I originally thought that it would be 217 or so (along with everyone else). But if it's gonna pass, you might as well go along with it. Because the DNC will fuck anyone this fall who runs on the "I voted no" platform.

Freedom|3.21.10 @ 1:31PM|

Could someone please at least lube me up before Pelosi shoves that gigantic gavel up my arse? Tony, Chad, can you spare some ky?

Chad|3.21.10 @ 5:48PM|

Sure, come on over. Then run off to some third-world country where there is no socialized medicine, and show us the courage of your convictions.

Tyranny|3.21.10 @ 1:35PM|

Besides you libertarades, who exactly do think it is paying attention to this delight? My liberal cohorts are banking on the ignorance of the sheeple.

alan|3.21.10 @ 1:39PM|

The immediate effect of this bill will be that millions of people who have never thought about gaming the system either in the payment of their taxes or being on the government dole will either have little choice, or feel so cheated by the system have little conscience standing in their way and now do both of those things. It is not really difficult to 'cheat' on your taxes and get away with it. Neither is it difficult to get away with claiming benefits that are not yours to claim. In fact, you encouraged to do so. Much of the middle class has long been bribed into accepting entitlements, but there has always remained a core who were net producers instead of parasites. A lot of couples who were paying on a claimed net of 250,000 will now magically find that to be no longer the case. A lot of money coming into the health care economy from 'Cadillac' plans that were being used to smooth over the spread of costs will no longer be doing that. Atlas Shrugged but under this rubric, he wont give a damn if he swipes your dime, either. Democrats in an odd way are counting on the benevolence and charity of the American people for this pile of shit to work. That is not how it is going to play out this time around.

Comrade Zero|3.21.10 @ 1:45PM|

I'm sure the dems all but budgeted the money they'll reel in from fines for not having insurance.

Corduroy Rocks|3.21.10 @ 1:39PM|

I got a nice little form letter from my private insurance company this week that gave my 15 days to verify my address or they "must cancel my policy." This after 5 years of business.

I interpreted it an attempt to shakeout subscribers so that they could force me to another policy type.

The effects of the legislation are already here.

Chad|3.21.10 @ 4:35PM|

Yes, they play these bullshit games all the time. I had one simply not mail me the bill (they don't allow you pay online), then try to cancel my policy because I didn't pay the bill they didn't send me. Of course, there was no warning whatsoever, but luckily I caught it spontaneously on my own, and contacted them on the absolute last day I could have and got the check in the mail hours before the deadline. They actually did cancel my policy, but re-instated it about a week later, which required a bunch of extra paperwork. *facepalm*

Joe|3.21.10 @ 5:09PM|

Don't believe a word of this. Show proof of this, please.

Chad|3.21.10 @ 5:47PM|

How am I supposed to "prove" it?

Either they never sent a bill, it got lost in the mail, or perhaps it got stuck between the 99th and 100th piece of junk mail I received one day and wound up in the trash inadvertantly.

How do I prove that this company doesn't allow you to pay online? I pay everything else that way, but this company didn't want to spend a penny it didn't have to. They had a website where you could see your bill, but not pay it, because credit cards cost them a couple percent apparently. Anyway, they WANT you to miss payments, because it gives them an excuse to drop "bad" customers (ie, anyone who is sick).

Do you doubt they had a drop-dead deadline? Do you doubt that they did not contact me in any way when my bill became past-due, but clearly were just waiting out the clock so that they could cut my insurance and then "re-negotiate"?

alan|3.21.10 @ 1:52PM|

See how that works:

The left likes to argue:

'Rich people, you enjoy special benefits that come fromour government from being allowed to do business. You should pay higher taxes as you are more indebted to society for your success than are the poor.'

Becomes:

'Middle class, you enjoy special benefits that come from our government. You should pay higher taxes as you are more indebted to society for your success than are the poor.'

Their ideology goes no where without bracket creep fueling it.

Geoff|3.21.10 @ 1:54PM|

I've been following the #hcr hashtag on Twitter for part of the afternoon, and it's a goddamn depressing mess. Most people really, really don't get it.

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That link worked when I first included it and previewed, but now it doesn't. Sorry!

danetrain|3.21.10 @ 2:08PM|

Stupak has not flipped. I repeat, Stupak has not flipped.

|3.21.10 @ 3:24PM|

If this thing passes the House, can't it be filibustered in the Senate? I'm a little naive on procedure sorry.

Bearings|8.9.10 @ 3:45AM|

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Regardless of whether this particular legislation passes or not, one thing will not change: you will still live under a system of power, very likely not of your own explicit choosing.

Such systems are defined by a code; a complex and changing code, but a code nonetheless. This code is forged by human minds. You possess a similar mind; when you believe that you are incapable of out-maneuvering such a system, that is your own self-defeatism talking. Where rules must be written abstractly and enforced specifically, your knowledge of your own particular situation is always specific. As such, it is you who ultimately holds the upper hand. Don't embrace helplessness; develop a proactive strategy.

Buck up...and then buck the system. Take it upon yourself to UNDERMINE and SUBVERT it at all points possible -- this is the only true power you will ever have, so learn to use it. If you denounce physical aggression, as I do, research and engage in the various forms of civil disobedience which are open to you.

Make it your goal to pursue minimum compliance and, where it is tolerable, to modify your situation such that you minimize your own exposure. Learn and re-learn how tax law operates; wherever possible, work over, under, and around the system; honor and success lie neither in passive subjugation, nor in reckless self-immolation; formulate a strategy which ensures that you are able to comply technically, but not effectually.

You have friends on the right and friends on the left. What they have in common is that they hold, both simultaneously, and in most cases, subconsciously, incompatible views founded in the competing ideals of, on the one hand, human freedom, and on the other, nationalist, religionist, and collectivist authoritarianism. Wake them up to these self-contradictory beliefs.

You likely did not choose to live your life as a subject, and there is no inherent morality in behaving as though you did. There is both honor and profit in working with and helping your fellow man; there is none in allowing a bureaucrat to forcibly appropriate your ability to do so. There is no more honor in prostrating yourself before a government than in doing so before a king.

Johnny Longtorso|3.21.10 @ 3:52PM|

The Hill: Unless a deal is struck with Stupak, Dems appear to be short on votes

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I saw that. Please God let it hold

|3.21.10 @ 4:05PM|

God apparently doesn't care. Stupak is on the TV announcing his flip right now.

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GOP doesnt need to take the Senate. If they take the House, they just need to attach the repeal to EVERY bill. If the Senate takes it out, demand it in committee for the final bill or the bill dies. Ditto if the president veto. Make him veto EVERY SINGLE BILL if he wants this to stay.

Ebeneezer Scrooge|3.21.10 @ 4:04PM|

The GOP won't have the balls to do it. Pelosi is on the other team. And I'm not seeing anyone else like her and Obama on the field.

Hacha Cha|3.21.10 @ 4:06PM|

it doesn't need to be repealed for it to be useless. states need to pass nullification laws and individuals need to not buy insurance or pay the fines and the feds will not be able to do shit about it if enough states and individuals stand up to this evil.

Ebeneezer Scrooge|3.21.10 @ 4:09PM|

The states will get mowed down in court.

The people, as a dis-organized large group, will not be able to mount effective opposition.

The communists will have won their revolution.

Game over.

Hacha Cha|3.21.10 @ 4:18PM|

the states didn't get mowed down in the medical marijuana movement. they can say nullification is illegal but if those states refuse to comply how can the feds do anything about it?
as an individual I refuse to give up this fight. they won't take my property and they sure as hell aren't going to take me, alive anyways.

don't give up people!

|3.21.10 @ 4:38PM|

Local DAs are more than happy to comply with the feds. And you'll have Dem strongholds happy to comply with the IRS in enforcing the mandate.

robc|3.21.10 @ 4:20PM|

Governors just need to use the state guard AGAINST feds trying to enforce it.

The result may be ugly, but its necessary.

|3.21.10 @ 4:37PM|

Good idea!

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I understand why President Obama desired this health bill to be passed, yet I do not agree that it should be his first priority. What is the good of having health insurance if you do not have food to eat. Every ounce of energy and resources should be focusing on making sure ALL US citizens have adequate food and housing First. We have US citizens living in worse conditions than 3rd world ghettos now. That should be the priority ~ food and shelter ...

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We need to stop worrying about the future and remember all the people that are hurting today. People that work their whole lives and have nothing to show for it because the greed of a few people. All other major countries provide support for their people. We don't. I support the healthcare bill!

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It looks like we know the results now a few months later... It's best at this point to get informed on the timeline of when the bill is going to be passed and the details on what will be changed. Most people are still uninformed about the exact details and only go off of what they hear in the news or from word of mouth.

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Depends on which side of the tracks your on. If you don't have health care then this is a blessing. If you have to pay for this, then you're against it.

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That makes sense sadly. They have no desire to do anything but kill the current system. Steny Hoyer among the lowest creatures there said yesterday "repeal which reforms". I wouldn't be surprised if there has been some half assed fix proposed next spring to check out to placate the voters. But the end game as you note is to destroy as much of the present system as that you could imagine.

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