EPI: More Enthusiastic About Obama's Policies Than He Is
Last week Christina Romer, President Obama's chief economic adviser, estimated that, thanks to the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, "employment is now about 485,000 jobs above what it otherwise would have been during the second quarter of 2009." In a report issued today, the leftish Economic Policy Institute (EPI) is even more bullish on the stimulus, estimating that it "created or saved" 720,000 jobs in the second quarter. By EPI's reckoning, only 14 percent of the stimulus money has been spent so far, and future spending will be even more stimulating than past spending. That suggests a total of at least 4.4 million jobs "created or saved" by the whole $787 billion package, about 1 million more jobs than Obama promised. But there's no reason to choose between the numbers; we can pretend they're both right. As Harvard economist Greg Mankiw has noted, such projections are unfalsifiable as long as the total number of jobs (currently about 140 million) does not dip below the number promised.
"If economic growth has resumed," EPI President Lawrence Mishel says in a press release, "it is solely because of the impact of the recovery package." He seems to mean that the stimulus has added two or three points to GDP, which could be the difference between stagnation and growth in the current quarter. Back in February, Obama made an even bolder claim: Without the stimulus package, he warned, the recession could go on forever.
I discussed the connection between the stimulus and the recovery in my column yesterday.
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Amen!
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"If economic growth has resumed," EPI President Lawrence Mishel says in a press release, "it is solely because of the impact of the recovery package."
He must be right. Absent government spending, I cannot imagine any other factor that contributes to economic growth. It's a recession, after all. -
Anybody seen this one?
In Illinois, two Republican lawmakers sent a letter to Obama this week complaining that Democratic organizers scheduled meetings between them and their constituents without ever notifying them, misleading their constituents into going to town halls on the wrong day.
Illinois Reps. Mark Kirk and Judy Biggert wrote that their constituents had apparently signed up for meetings to discuss health care reform with them after receiving an Aug. 9 e-mail from BarackObama.com urging them to do so. -
I'm glad so many jobs are being created. That means i'll be able to get another one to go with the one i've got! Lord knows i need it.
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Anybody seen this one?
Apparently Sen. Feinstein complained about that as well. Organizing for America, what Candidate Obama's campaign organization turned into after the election, has been "scheduling" constituents for meetings with their Representatives and Senators. They aren't actually coordinating or even informing the politicians, though, and constituents who feel like they have solidly arranged meeting times are getting pretty ticked.
(But of course there's no AstroTurf(TM) going on.) -
Jacob Sullum:
You missed a fine opportunity to pull out the old "plus royalistes que le roi" phrase. -
Actually, my magic rock has created or saved fill-in-the-blank number of jobs. Since the start of the Obama administration, I've ritualistically rubbing it every day saying, "create or save jobs, create or save jobs..."
Obviously, it's working.
Prove it isn't. -
according to the numbers, if I have my math correct, we have spent almost 180k per job to save or create the 4.4 million jobs that the EPI is spouting. 180k!! Holy shit...God, isn't government the fucking shizzle?!?
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"He seems to mean that the stimulus has added two or three points to GDP"
GDP is approximately $14 trillion. 2% to 3% of GDP only amounts to $280-420 billion.
Between fiscal and monetary stimulus, the government has injected many times more than that into the economy over the last 10 months.
I try not to think about how much the real economy must be contracting, after you strip out the Washington effect. -
Negative GDP is still negative..but maybe it's less negative than it could've been...it's a squirrelly argument to make. "You could lose your job, but you didn't! Not yet anyway...."
I'll believe growth is returning when I can see it -
"Actually, my magic rock has created or saved fill-in-the-blank number of jobs. Since the start of the Obama administration, I've ritualistically rubbing it every day saying, "create or save jobs, create or save jobs..."
and hopefully this rock of magic was made in the USA... -
Anybody seen this one?
That is an old Chicago style political trick. It used to happen all the time way back in the day when controlling information was much easier.
Economists as political shills are the worst kind of human beings on the planet. On either side. -
Homer: Not a bear in sight. The Bear Patrol must be working like a
charm.
Lisa: That's spacious reasoning, Dad.
Homer: Thank you, dear.
Lisa: By your logic I could claim that this rock keeps tigers away.
Homer: Oh, how does it work?
Lisa: It doesn't work.
Homer: Uh-huh.
Lisa: It's just a stupid rock.
Homer: Uh-huh.
Lisa: But I don't see any tigers around, do you?
[Homer thinks of this, then pulls out some money]
Homer: Lisa, I want to buy your rock. -
I've never heard of Lawrence Mishel before today, but now I know that he's a blithering idiot. Thanks, Jacob!
-jcr -
Democratic organizers scheduled meetings between them and their constituents without ever notifying them,
I guess arranging for unexpected pizza deliveries was losing its effectiveness.
-jcr -
"the recession could go on forever."
Like the War in Afganistan? -
Shannon Love,
1. Magic rocks are like magic 8-balls.
2. 8-balls are black.
3. You're a racist. -
Without the stimulus package, he warned, the recession could go on forever.
Nothing lasts forever. -
"Homer: Not a bear in sight. The Bear Patrol must be working like a
charm.
Lisa: That's spacious reasoning, Dad.
Homer: Thank you, dear."
I LOVE great writing! -
"Magic rocks are like magic 8-balls."
That's odd. All the 8-balls I buy are white. -
All the 8-balls I buy are white.
And are you trying to tell us they aren't magic rocks? -
The statist pols and apologists only play games on "economic development," but they're hell-on-wheels when it comes to political development! Read about it here: http://jackmchughblog.wordpress.com/2009/06/10/quantifying-political-development-the-foregone-job-loss-index/
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http://michaelscomments.wordpress.com/2009/06/08/correction-to-the-may-unemployment-chart/
"Without my plan, we'll have 8.5% unemployment by May, but with it we'll peak at less than 8%!"
[Plan passes, May arrives]
"We have only 9.4% unemployment! Look at all the jobs my plan saved!"
[Liberals rejoice, sane people cry] -
i have personally saved over 10 billion jobs.