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The 7 p.m. Poll Closings: Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia
ATLANTA - I'm en route to Bob Barr's election party, which won't kick off officially until after the polls close, which gave me time to grab a burger at the Varsity restaurant. A family next to me is talking about... Bob Barr. They didn't vote for him, they were just trying to remember who the LP candidate was.
The first wave of exit polls, which are being broadcast on the cable channels (Fox News in the Varsity), look ridiculously good for Obama. Not the state-by-states, which are bunk, but the fact that more voters would be "scared" of a McCain win than an Obama win, that only 10 percent more of the electorate thinks McCain has more relevant experience than Obama, and so on. Sometimes that data falls apart. If it's at all right, the electorate is basically where Obama wanted it.
I'll start checking it here at 7.
UPDATE: I'm at Barr HQ, and the exits are coming in. The borig guys first: The earliest exit polls have Obama taking Virginia, but the biggest problem for McCain is that people who decided today broke for Obama. Remember: the polls showed Obama leading but under 50 percent. McCain was going to win it if undecideds broke his way. Unless they're lying, they will provide Obama his margin of victory. "We moved the ball forward and everybody know that we did," says Barr campaign guru Stewart Flood.
I talked to Barr foreign policy advisor Doug Bandow, who'd voted for his candidate but was rooting for an Obama "rout." "Obama's foreign policy will be no less aggressive than Bush's, but McCain's will be much worse."
The band at the Barr party plays "Sin City" as a number of Libertarians come over to ask us to ask if we have more detailed numbers. We kind of don't: Between the paucity of stuff that's in and the buggy state sites, we're sort of in a holding pattern.
Zack|11.4.08 @ 6:42PM|#
I believe that you mean, "Sometimes those data fall apart." The singular form of the word is datum; the plural is data.
|11.4.08 @ 6:43PM|#
I'm merely appalled at the prospects of a McCain win, but no one
asked me about that, either.
Libertarians blackballed? And that's a small 'l' capitalized for
grammatical purposes.
|11.4.08 @ 6:44PM|#
MLK's ghost,
If only I could see the content of his character. But it's
a secret.
|11.4.08 @ 6:49PM|#
I wonder how Barr will do in Florida? I think my wife ended up voting McCain, so that means Babar only got one vote from my household.
|11.4.08 @ 6:49PM|#
Why would the national exit data be any less bunk than the state by state data? Does garbage get sweeter as it is aggregated?
Ironic|11.4.08 @ 6:50PM|#
"If only I could see the content of his character. But it's a
secret."
Don't you know? It is now considered racist to care about the
content of someone's character.
|11.4.08 @ 6:54PM|#
BREAKING: Obama currently leads McCain 2-1 in Maine! That's 67%-33%, people! It's going to be a landslide!
Booky|11.4.08 @ 6:57PM|#
Odds on riots after the election? Anyone want to bet on riots after the election? Anyone?
|11.4.08 @ 6:57PM|#
Prediction: If we end up with a popular/electoral split, abolition of the EC is not far behind.
|11.4.08 @ 6:58PM|#
Gutsy call, joe. I'm going to mock you when it turns out that Vermont unanimously wrote in Vermont's own Carlton Fisk.
Kyle|11.4.08 @ 6:58PM|#
ABC news is running with the headline that African Americans
accounted for 13% of the votes.
quickly searching demographic numbers show that African Americans
only make up 13% of the population.
how is this news?
Kyle|11.4.08 @ 7:01PM|#
Ironic,
just a rambling thought. you're probably right, their % might have
been much lower in the past.
|11.4.08 @ 7:02PM|#
"how is this news?"
Presumably because they've always made up a much smaller part of
the vote than you'd expect based on the overall population. A
dramatic change in the voting patterns of a substantial minority of
the country seems pretty newsy to me.
BakedPenguin|11.4.08 @ 7:02PM|#
I know a guy in New York, and he's voting for Obama. Based on
that, I'm calling New York for Obama. You heard it here
first.
Oh, and California, too.
Kyle|11.4.08 @ 7:04PM|#
Sparky,
you're probably right as well. I just presumed that 13% was a small
number to begin with, which it may not be in the case of the voting
minority.
Crystal HUSSEIN Gayle |11.4.08 @ 7:06PM|#
Don't it make my red states,
Don't it make my red states,
Don't it make my red states blue...
Andrew Jackson|11.4.08 @ 7:06PM|#
I find it ironic that the increased African-American vote could actually aid the defeat of California's Proposition 8.
Kang (or maybe Kodos)|11.4.08 @ 7:06PM|#
Kentucky goes for McCain!!! Vermont goes for Obama!!!
Small American flags for everyone!!
|11.4.08 @ 7:11PM|#
Booky | November 4, 2008, 6:57pm | #
Odds on riots after the election? Anyone want to bet on riots after the election? Anyone?/blockquote>
I'm not taking that bet but I sure as hell wouldn't want to be the first black president for anything.
|11.4.08 @ 7:11PM|#
It makes no difference which one of us you vote for. Either way, your planet is doomed. DOOMED!
joe|11.4.08 @ 7:11PM|#
Pro Libertate | November 4, 2008, 6:58pm | #
Gutsy call, joe. I'm going to mock you when it turns out that
Vermont unanimously wrote in Vermont's own Carlton Fisk.
As Fisk watched the returns, he knew the only way he could lose
would be if the election was stolen.
So he stood in front of the TV, waving his arms, asking "Is it
fair? Is it fair?"
|11.4.08 @ 7:12PM|#
Kyle,
Usually, AAs turnout at a rate of about 15-20% (IIRC) lower than
whites. AAs turning out at their census levels is a big bump for
Obama. The same would be true if 18-25s show up at their census
percentages.
joe|11.4.08 @ 7:14PM|#
What I find interesting about the African American vote is that
they have better turnout numbers than white voters in every income
demographic; but because African Americans are, in the aggregate,
poorer than white Americans, they end up having a lower turnout
number overall.
At least, before tonight they did.
|11.4.08 @ 7:16PM|#
ABC news is running with the headline that African Americans
accounted for 13% of the votes.
quickly searching demographic numbers show that African Americans
only make up 13% of the population.
how is this news?
AA participation in elections is historically far below average.
I've been musing about whether they would raise participation to
the level of the general populace this election.
That's why it's news.
Kaiser|11.4.08 @ 7:16PM|#
Exit polls are notoriously inaccurate. I am pretty sure that they have always said the democratic candidate is in the lead. Although I do believe they are skewed, this year I am sure they will be proven correct. It is looking like Obama will win this one pretty handily. Of course you never know, I may have to eat my words....
joe|11.4.08 @ 7:16PM|#
Empress of India, still not amused | November 4, 2008,
6:51pm | #
The plural are data.
Hold it, you Imperialist tosser. "Plural" in that sentence is
singular.
The gerund is "tossing."
The adjective is "tossed."
The plural is "tosses."
I think...
Sea of Liberty|11.4.08 @ 7:17PM|#
I am excited that there is still a possibility of a tie. 269 is my favorite number.
Zack|11.4.08 @ 7:17PM|#
To Empress of India, still not amused:
As there is only one plural form of datum, it is proper to use
'plural'. The word plural, when used as a noun rather than a
adjective, is a singular noun. The plural of plural is
'plurals'.
Ironic|11.4.08 @ 7:18PM|#
I am excited that there is still a possibility of a tie. 269 is
my favorite number.
If that happens we could wind up with McCain as President and Biden
as Vice President. Horay! Everybody Looses!
Kaiser|11.4.08 @ 7:19PM|#
It will be interesting to see the states that changed from red to blue or vice versa on that CNN map you linked David.
Kyle|11.4.08 @ 7:20PM|#
J sub D,
you're right as well. I've never paid much attention to
demographics in vote totals, which shows my ignorance to the topic
(i guess).
|11.4.08 @ 7:24PM|#
Joe-
I knew Curt Gowdy. I listened to Curt Gowdy. Curt Gowdy was a
friend of mine. Blogger, you are no Curt Gowdy.
|11.4.08 @ 7:25PM|#
PL,
I dunno about blackballed as I have been placed on the jury duty
roster a couple of times in the last 3 years but never actually
selected for duty.
|11.4.08 @ 7:25PM|#
You got a reaction
You got a reaction, didn't you?
You took a red state
You took a red state turned it blue
|11.4.08 @ 7:25PM|#
*watching MSNBC*
Hey look, it's that guy - he, umm... lost a senate race 2 years
ago
But he's black! Let's get him to say something!
Kaiser|11.4.08 @ 7:27PM|#
J sub D
AA participation in elections is historically far below average. I've been musing about whether they would raise participation to the level of the general populace this election.
That's why it's news.
I've never paid much attention to demographics in vote totals, which shows my ignorance to the topic (i guess).
Personally I find it rather dumb. This is going to sound rather
hippy-ish, but black, white, brown whatever, we are all just
Americans. The break down of race demographic, imho, has no bearing
at all. I am slightly biased on this I guess because I don't
understand this whole idea of race anyways. Obviously I realize the
aesthetic differences, but why should we be proud of something we
have no control over? You don't get to choose your skin color.
|11.4.08 @ 7:28PM|#
Hey, why did they pick blue for Dems and Red for GOP? Is there some reason? I mean, look how it has come to define the political discourse these days. I'd hate to find out it was fucking arbitrary.
|11.4.08 @ 7:30PM|#
Kaiser
I guess it has importance because there are these statistical
regularities that exist for demographic categories.
If there were not any I think people actually would stop bringing
it up. I mean, how much discussion of the "brown haired
demographic" and its voting tendencies do you hear?
|11.4.08 @ 7:30PM|#
Google News may have the best quick overview of results.
Although they list Barr's and Nader's parties as (I), as in
Independent.
|11.4.08 @ 7:31PM|#
Kaiser-
Amen. Group think is a killer. People who identify themselves first
and foremost by their race are LOSERS.
Andrew Jackson|11.4.08 @ 7:31PM|#
CNN showed an outside shot of the crowds in Chicago...I tell you, if by some miracle Obama loses...there will be a riot in Chicago tonight.
Kaiser|11.4.08 @ 7:32PM|#
Mr. Nice Guy
I guess it has importance because there are these statistical regularities that exist for demographic categories.
If there were not any I think people actually would stop bringing it up. I mean, how much discussion of the "brown haired demographic" and its voting tendencies do you hear?
Fair enough, fair enough.
Kaiser|11.4.08 @ 7:35PM|#
libertymike
People who take pride in their race are also LOSERS.
Yeah I concur, as humans we should take pride in our
accomplishments and advancements, not the things we have no control
over.
joe|11.4.08 @ 7:36PM|#
Reinmoose,
Hey look, it's that guy - he, umm... lost a senate race 2 years
ago
But he's black! Let's get him to say something!
To be fair to MSNBC, he's also a Democrat who's much more
conservative than his party.
The liberal media LOVE (right, Empress?) to let people who are much
more conservative than the Democratic Party talk on teevee.
Especially if they're from the South, and especially if they're
Democrats from the South.
Think 1% of America could pick Lincoln Chafee out of a lineup?
Andrew Jackson|11.4.08 @ 7:37PM|#
Kaiser, are you stating that I should not be proud of my large sexual organ?
|11.4.08 @ 7:38PM|#
Google News has the Objectivist Party candidate @ 49,000 votes...how bizarre. Must be out of Vermont or something.
joe|11.4.08 @ 7:38PM|#
The break down of race demographic, imho, has no bearing at
all.
If they vote differently in a consistent and predictable way, then
it plainly does.
Kaiser|11.4.08 @ 7:39PM|#
Andrew Jackson
Kaiser, are you stating that I should not be proud of my large sexual organ?
Haha, as a matter of fact, I am. I thought about adding it to my
previous post for laughs but I left it out.
Ali|11.4.08 @ 7:41PM|#
Is it just me or is the CNN hologram thingie super
disturbing?
Dumb and disturbing.
joe|11.4.08 @ 7:41PM|#
I have no control over my family, but I'm proud of my big old
Irish family.
That ok, guys?
Kaiser|11.4.08 @ 7:44PM|#
joe
If they vote differently in a consistent and predictable way, then it plainly does.
Well as I stated I was biased to the situation. However MNG helped
me to realize the error of my ways. Coincidentally that same bias
is the same excuse I use to use racial epitaphs and make racially
charged jokes. I mean what better way to prove we are really past
all this racial inequality than to laugh about it? In all fairness
though I make sure to make fun of all people equally, including my
own honky ass.
Rusty T.|11.4.08 @ 7:44PM|#
Kaiser, are you stating that I should not be proud of my
large sexual organ?
No no Andy, you go right ahead and take pride in your gaping
vagina.
brandon|11.4.08 @ 7:44PM|#
The Google News election page has Objectivist Party candidate Thomas Stevens pulling in 4% of the national popular vote. Atlas is shrugging.
joe|11.4.08 @ 7:49PM|#
No no Andy, you go right ahead and take pride in your gaping
vagina.
Hrmph. Stupid Boyles.
|11.4.08 @ 7:51PM|#
Google News has the Objectivist Party candidate @ 49,000 votes...how bizarre. Must be out of Vermont or something.
They're on the ballot in Fla, but I'm just getting ready to leave
work so I haven't seen any returns.
|11.4.08 @ 7:51PM|#
Think 1% of America could pick Lincoln Chafee out of a
lineup?
I couldn't. I'm proud of that.
Kaiser|11.4.08 @ 7:55PM|#
On this topic of race while we are here, I find the term
"African American" to be incredibly ignorant. It assumes two things
that are not necessarily true:
1) It assumes they are American, rare but definitely not
impossible. Not to mention there are other countries besides
America ya know, what to you call black people in Canada or
Europe?
2) It assumes they are African. I have never met a single black
person from Africa, as a matter of fact, I have met probably 7 or 8
people who are white, and were born in Africa. Now I realize they
say there ancestors are from Africa but I have two sub points to
that a) again we shouldn't be proud of things we have no control
over, but more importantly b) no matter which theory of life you
subscribe to (evolution or religion) we all came from African at
some point in our history. But I digress, back to election
coverage.
Kaiser|11.4.08 @ 7:56PM|#
Wow I butchered that last post, my apologies. I wish you could edit posts on here but that would require some sort of login I guess.
Jerry|11.4.08 @ 7:56PM|#
South Carolina has been called for Lindsey Graham, but Bob
Conley is currently ahead in the returns:
Bob Conley Dem. 12,083 53.2%
Lindsey Graham Rep. 10,611 46.8
|11.4.08 @ 7:56PM|#
The Angry Optimist | November 4, 2008, 7:48pm | #
Looks like Saxby Chambliss is going to keep his seat.
Early results but "fuck" if it's true.
SIV|11.4.08 @ 7:57PM|#
Ah, The Varsity,I haven't eaten there in nearly a week.
"Whadya Have?"
Chili dog, chili steak, onion rings,a large Coke and give me lots
of chopped onions.
SIV|11.4.08 @ 8:02PM|#
Hey, why did they pick blue for Dems and Red for GOP? Is
there some reason? I mean, look how it has come to define the
political discourse these days. I'd hate to find out it was fucking
arbitrary.
Isn't it obvious? The liberal mainstream media didn't want to make
the Democrats "REDS". I think they call that framing or
something.
joe|11.4.08 @ 8:03PM|#
Still on Indiana.
That means big win. It's a just a question of how big?
The one before Indiana, in terms of Obama's chances, is Missouri.
The one after it is, what? North Dakota? Georgia?
Kaiser|11.4.08 @ 8:03PM|#
Biden won in Delaware for senator? I assume that is in the rules but how will that work?
|11.4.08 @ 8:15PM|#
Obama's foreign policy will be no less aggressive than Bush's...
Yeah, but it will be a good kind of aggressive. An enlightened
humanist aggressive, one of hope and change. Sort of like getting
buggered by the kindly quiet man down the street. I can't wait to
hear all the excuses from the peaceniks the first time Obama sends
troops or bombs anywhere.
|11.4.08 @ 8:17PM|#
That means big win. It's a just a question of how big?
The one before Indiana, in terms of Obama's chances, is Missouri.
The one after it is, what? North Dakota? Georgia?
Yes, I think that has been the only question for some time now.
After Indiana in terms of Obama's chances would be ND, then MT,
then GA, though he probably doesn't get those. I think he's looking
at upper 300's in EV... 375?
Nash|11.4.08 @ 8:24PM|#
"Yeah, but it will be a good kind of aggressive. An enlightened
humanist aggressive, one of hope and change. Sort of like getting
buggered by the kindly quiet man down the street. I can't wait to
hear all the excuses from the peaceniks the first time Obama sends
troops or bombs anywhere."
These peaceniks are either a tiny minority or are the very same
people who supported Clinton dumping depleted uranium all over
Eastern Europe.
The very dems voting for Obama support intervention in Darfur and
embrace Wilsonian crusades all over the globe, just like their
compassionate conservative brethren.
BDB|11.4.08 @ 8:27PM|#
Well, I looked at the VA county-by-county joe.
Obama got 46% in Chesterfield, a white suburb of Richmond.
Webb got 41% there in 2006.
Kaine got 44% in 2005.
But hes being wiped out worse than Kerry in SW so far. But NoVA
hasn't clocked in yet.
|11.4.08 @ 8:27PM|#
The very dems voting for Obama support intervention in Darfur and embrace Wilsonian crusades all over the globe, just like their compassionate conservative brethren.
Ding, ding, ding!! And we have a winner!
|11.4.08 @ 8:27PM|#
Wait for VA to be called before you say its a
landslide.
Ah, what fun is that? Besides, I'm calling VA for Obama as I think
it is very likely to go that way... that and I'm never wrong.
:)
joe|11.4.08 @ 8:27PM|#
I suppose it's fair to say that, from the point of view of
someone who's strictly anti-war, anti-intervention, the difference
between Obama and McCain is quantitative, rather than
qualitative.
That doesn't mean it's a negligible difference.
|11.4.08 @ 8:39PM|#
VA is staying red, I can forget my alias.
What do you guys make of the FL numbers? If Obama wins there it is
over.
highnumber|11.4.08 @ 8:39PM|#
joe,
True.
Speaking as a Chicagoan, let me say that, starting sometime last
week, the Obama supporters have become annoying. I don't think they
would riot if Obama were to lose, but either way, they will remain
annoying for at least a few weeks.
BDB|11.4.08 @ 8:40PM|#
MNG, you wanna call that with nothing from Northern Virginia,
Richmond, Norfolk, or Hampton Roads?
Really?
|11.4.08 @ 8:43PM|#
What do you guys make of the FL numbers? If Obama wins there
it is over.
FL is even further up the probability rankings for Obama states
than VA and IN so as joe said with regards to VA, if IN is close,
FL is over -- and yes so is VA.
Kaiser|11.4.08 @ 8:44PM|#
Mr. Nice Guy
What do you guys make of the FL numbers? If Obama wins there it is over.
I agree, although looking at the numbers McCain definitely still
has a shot there. Ohio is looking pretty rough for McCain though at
least acording to the CNN map linked in the article. If Obama takes
Ohio he really has it in the bag then.
Kaiser |11.4.08 @ 8:46PM|#
Also something to keep in mind as well. BDB pointed this out, but so far Obama has not flipped a single state yet. Just some food for thought.
|11.4.08 @ 8:48PM|#
MNG,
Florida all depends on the Panhandle. Do they vote conservative or
do they get bribed by dreams of Democratic booty? I think McCain is
likely to win, but not by much.
|11.4.08 @ 8:48PM|#
I think Obama can win technically by simply flipping NH, Iowa,
New Mexico (all of which are very likely given he was up by more
than 5% in the polls) and Colorado. Isn't that right?
Of course that makes us stay up a lot longer. If Ohio or Florida
flips we can gtf to bed hours earlier.
|11.4.08 @ 8:53PM|#
I'm looking at the AP results via the C-SPAN site, and Barr is doing best, percentage-wise, in Indiana (1.1% of the vote w/ about 50% of the precincts counted). Seems a bit strange--I didn't know Indiana was a (relative) hot-bed of libertarianism.
|11.4.08 @ 8:56PM|#
Dole lost.
Wow.
joe and BDB, notice Obama is underperfoming the Dem Senate
candidates in NC and Va
For all the bullshit about VA, NC, etc., it will come down to
flipping FL and OH, unless Obama squeaks by with the win I
described above (which don't get me wrong is probably going to
happen regardless of how he does in other states)
BDB|11.4.08 @ 8:57PM|#
Southern Indiana actually does have big pockets of libertarianism from what I hear.
|11.4.08 @ 9:05PM|#
@BDB,
I found that one can drill down to the county-level results on the
C-SPAN site. Barr seems to have (again, relatively) strong support
pretty much all over the state. Some counties are close to 2%
Barr.
|11.4.08 @ 9:21PM|#
scineram | November 4, 2008, 8:21pm | #
No. It is a landslide.
No flips to this point.
It's more like a glacier race.
Nephilium|11.4.08 @ 9:24PM|#
Aresen:
Fox news has just called New Mexico and Ohio for Obama... two
flips, which will be enough for Obama to win.
Nephilium
Kaiser|11.4.08 @ 9:24PM|#
Ohio has just been called for Obama. That prtty much seals it I think. It is his first flipped state but more importantly Republicans don't win without Ohio.
Andrew Jackson|11.4.08 @ 9:25PM|#
McConnell barely pulls out a victory. That would have been embarrassing for the GOP.
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