David Weigel | October 6, 2008
Maybe somebody convinced John McCain* that while voters are fretting about the economy, he should... actually talk about Obama's economic policies. Mark Halperin has the speech:
This crisis started in our housing market in the form of subprime loans that were pushed on people who could not afford them. Bad mortgages were being backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and it was only a matter of time before a contagion of unsustainable debt began to spread. This corruption was encouraged by Democrats in Congress, and abetted by Senator Obama.
Senator Obama has accused me of opposing regulation to avert this crisis. I guess he believes if a lie is big enough and repeated often enough it will be believed. But the truth is I was the one who called at the time for tighter restrictions on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that could have helped prevent this crisis from happening in the first place.
Senator Obama was silent on the regulation of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and his Democratic allies in Congress opposed every effort to rein them in. As recently as September of last year he said that subprime loans had been, quote, “a good idea.” Well, Senator Obama, that “good idea” has now plunged this country into the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.
Up to now McCain has handled this issue terribly. He's allowed
Obama to turn McCain's Fannie/Freddie-connected advisors into a
liability bigger than Obama's own homeownership philosophy—one that
basically excuses and agrees with the goals of the GSEs,
pre-meltdown. He tried to "lead" on the issue with his campaign
suspension stunt, which made his campaign take on water faster than
the Lusitania.
Tonally I don't know if the attack works. As with everything
McCain, the issue is framed more as a matter of honor (Obama has
none! I've got tons!) than understanding of the problem. But
there's some understanding here. More importantly, there's the
understanding that McCain has to provide answers on the crisis or
he'll get crushed in 30 days.
*Not Sarah
Palin, though.
UPDATE: I just tuned into a McCain campaign press call on the
speech, led by Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan (R), who insisted that "all
roads lead back to Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae" and that McCain had
wanted to regulate them while Obama proposed nothing. He also
credited McCain with improving the bailout bill. "He not only gave
us political support, he gave us moral support, so we were able to
add taxpayer protections," Ryan said. "This bill passed after we
made it substantially better."
Obama, on the other hand: "He was not doing anything until the
votes were not there the first time. We're seeing some of the
implications of that today" as the market crashes.
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That would be a perfect speech for McCain, in that it contains so much that is untrue.
Whatever strange calculus that goes on in the minds of the electorate, the MSM reports that they trust Obama on the Economy more than McCain. McCain should be able to at least hold his own on the economic battleground. But so far, he appears to be giving ground.
If there's "so much that is untrue" there has to be a specific thing that is untrue.
If there's "so much that is untrue" there has to be a
specific thing that is untrue.
Yep.
The Axiom of Choice,
Jesus! That makes my head spin reading your comment! Why can't you
be like joe and use simple, easy to understand arguments.
McCain needs to go all O'Reilly on Obama in tomorrow's debate if he still wants to make this election. He needs to point out the contributions the Lehman's of this world made to Democrats like Dodd & Clinton.
McCain needs to go all O'Reilly on Obama in tomorrow's
debate if he still wants to make this election. The problem
is, people seriously marked him down last time for being too mean.
So he'd have to go after Obama, but do so in a manner that didn't
look grouchy or disrespectful. Tough act for anyone and this is
John McCain.
He needs to point out the contributions the Lehman's of this
world made to Democrats like Dodd & Clinton. To which
Obama replies that their PACs, as opposed to their employees, gave
much more money to Republicans, and now we're in the weeds of
campaign finance.
There's an opening for McCain, but it's a tough one for him to
navigate.
Doesn't matter if McCain understands the economy better than Obama, as long as McCain's just itching to blow out the national debt on military adventures.
To which Obama replies that their PACs, as opposed to their
employees, gave much more money to Republicans, and now we're in
the weeds of campaign finance.
Yeah that would not help Obama.
"I did not get money from Fannie Mae I got it from Fannie Mae
employees"
Scary black weathermen in church from the 60's has more play then
that.
The problem for McCain is not the issue it is that he might be too
late.
Justin Fox has discussed McCain's Fannie/Freddie argument
before,
here (and some older detail
here). Others have fleshed this out, but I find the general
argument -- Fannie and Freddie stepped in after the S&L
scandal, but they were overtaken by the private market during the
overheating period -- plausible. Fannie and Freddie certainly
deserve blame as freakish public/private organizations, as does
Greenspan for directing a dot.com bubble into a housing bubble, but
the meltdown was led by the shadow banking sector. All this knee
jerk "regulation always bad! No, regulation always good!" stuff is
getting old.
I have stopped paying attention to the campaigning, so I have no
idea how McCain's approach will play as strategy. It would
seem to open the door to revisiting the S&L scandal (which
Obama may already be doing).
Anon
"I did not get money from Fannie Mae I got it from Fannie Mae
employees"
to which McCain replies "I did not get money from Fannie Mae, I got
it from a PAC run by Fannie Mae."
It doesn't have to "help Obama." It's not his attack.
I find it unbelievable that Weigel wrote this
article.
Yeah I think he's playing us. He's just saying McCain's got game so
that after the debate he can link back and go "Whoa! I though
McCain might have enough shit to put the stink on Obama. But oh
snap! He got pwned".
*Humor Alert*
Did you get that I was kidding? I mean, I've got no idea what
fiendish agenda Weigel's pushing these days. It's a perfectly fine
post. I just thought the above, with the right dead pan delivery,
would be funny. But even if it was, this kind of ruins it doesn't
it. But I hate to let all this... Uh what would you call this...
Creative discharge go to waste, so I'm submitting it
anyway.
"pushed on people who could not afford them. Bad mortgages were
being backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac"
At what point do we blame the idiots who made these loans?
I keep asking: Did someone put a gun to their head?
Check out http://keatingeconomics.com/ for what the Obama
campaign is currently doing with the Keating 5 scandal.
The problem is that after reading up on it a bit, I actually liked
McCain more for his restraint in the matter - and that's from a
confirmed McCain basher. I hope this doesn't backfire - I doubt it
will as long as they can keep the swing voters from understanding
what went on.
The loans themselves are one problem--big, but not
end-of-the-world big.
TEOTWAWKI is possible because these piece of shit loans were
packaged up and leveraged and re-leveraged, all by affluent,
well-mannered, highly educated dipshits on Wall Street. It is THIS
action that threatens to collapse the whole Ponzi scheme that is
the modern American economy.
The scapegoating of marginal lending can only go so far--the rest
was done by people who should have known better, and probably did,
but just didn't give a fuck because of the short-end bucks
involved.
I'm gonna go gonzo free market here, and say that sub-prime
loans were a good thing.
At some risk premium, any loan is profitable, or at least
when such loans are aggregated. If housing prices weren't dropping
(and, yes, I'm aware that the two are intertwined), the risk is
relatively limited. Repossess the house and audition another
loan-buyer with it. The problem now is, nobody wants to take back
the less-valuable house.
If you believe there are no proper beneficiaries of sub-prime loans
and other creative financing, then you have to believe that the
market had perfected risk/benefit analysis for mortgages in 2000,
and everything since then has been responses to
government-generated moral hazard. I don't see it that way.
This is way too subtle an argument to make in a presidential race,
but I think it's important not to buy into the view that we're here
because a bunch of losers who could never afford any home
got mansions. I blame the masters of the universe who were supposed
to calculate (and price) the risk, and apparently used a method
less reliable than a Ouija board.
Or, I think it's a matter of one entrepreneur makes a complex and
subtle calculation of how you can manage risk, and profits by it.
People start to copy them, and then people start to copy the
copiers, and pretty soon the formula has been reduced to "lend
money to risky borrowers = easy profit". This works only as long as
things are going well, which is why you need to insure against a
downturn. And then the insurers start playing the same game.
Splat!
And in the end, it doesn't matter, because Henry Paulson and his
buddies at Goldman Sachs will appoint the winners and losers.
Sigh.
At what point do we blame the idiots who made these
loans?
Exactly.
A bank has exactly one intelligent function - to determine the
creditworthiness of their lease/loan customer. The rest is mostly
just bookkeeping.
Hell, you want less regs? Just shut the banks down and let everyone
borrow directly from the Fed.
Oh boy. Both candidates are trying to take cxredit for this
abortion of a bill. They agreed on telecom immunity too.
Vot third party. If none is available, leave that slot blank. If
you think that delinquincies and defaults in the packages are high
now, wait until the government instead of greedy corporations is
holding the debt. Hell, if I owed on a mortgage, I'd seriously
consider getting into arrears. What? The government ain't gonna
start throwing people into the street. Only evil greedy
corporations do that.
Oh noes! Yhe gub'mint is throwing Aunt Flossy out of her home! This
shitstorm hasn't even started. If you pay taxes, you're going to be
selling houses to deadbeats at a loss.
joe | October 6, 2008, 2:47pm | #
If there's "so much that is untrue" there has to be a specific thing that is untrue.
Yep.
The point is, you should provide a specific thing that is untrue
before making the blanket assertion that "so much is untrue".
I made a point of replying with precisely the degree of
specificity in the original McCain speech.
But to take it a step further - the bill McCain claims would have
prevented this crises would have 1) required Fannie Mae to purchase
more MBSs, and 2) implemented accounte changes that, regardless of
their merits, would have still counted the MBSs at the heart of
this problem was their speculative value. The first would have
either done nothing to avoid the problem or possibly made it worse
(but probably done nothing, because the GSEs owned a small fraction
of the MBSs anyway), while the second would have done nothing about
the problem. There was no language whatsoever in that bill about
the standards for the underlying loans.
That doesn't make it a bad bill, but it wouldn't have prevented the
meltdown.
Now, in English:
But to take it a step further - the bill McCain claims would have
prevented this crisis would have 1) required Fannie Mae to purchase
more MBSs, and 2) implemented accounting changes that, regardless
of their merits, would have still counted the MBSs at the heart of
this problem at their speculative value. The first would have
either done nothing to avoid the problem or possibly made it worse
(but probably done nothing, because the GSEs owned a small fraction
of the MBSs anyway), while the second would have done nothing about
the problem. There was no language whatsoever in that bill about
the standards for the underlying loans.
"I did not get money from Fannie Mae I got it from Fannie
Mae employees"
Employees give money to candidates for lots of reasons. PACs
generally give money for one reason. Which one do you think helps
or hurts either candidate?
At what point do we blame the idiots who made these
loans?
I keep asking: Did someone put a gun to their head?
By buying up sub-prime loans Fannie created the market and for the
most part was the market.
If Fannie was not buying up these crappy loans then the guy who
made the loan never would have made it because no one would have
bought it.
For some reason the left has a really hard time understanding this.
It is almost as if they have a fundamental misunderstanding of how
markets work.
To be more specific, if I give money to a candidate, it's
because he/she shares my values, or I like his/her view on foreign
policy, or I think he/she will be able to handle the economy
better. You have to go pretty far down the list of reasons I'd give
before you'd find "because I think they'll help my employer
specifically."
Employees of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac most likely give on a
similar calculus. PACs, not so much.
You have to go pretty far down the list of reasons I'd give
before you'd find "because I think they'll help my employer
specifically." Employees of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac most likely
give on a similar calculus
Why do you guys have this weird notion that Fannie Mae had a bunch
of disinterested coal miners working for them is beyond me.
Seriously this will get no play...the only thing people will look
at is how much money Obama got and how much McCain got.
By buying up sub-prime loans Fannie created the market and
for the most part was the market. Not even close.
If Fannie was not buying up these crappy loans then the guy who
made the loan never would have made it because no one would have
bought it. 72% of mortgage-backed securities (a pretty good
proxy) are owned by the private sector.
If there was no market for buying crappy loans and their
derivatives, what's up with Bear Stearns, Merrill, and Lehman being
so screwed when the foreclosure rates spiked?
For some reason the left has a really hard time understanding
this. It is almost as if they have a fundamental misunderstanding
of how markets work. There's going to come a day when joshua
corning is going to cease accusing "the left" of ignorance in
comments that grossly misstate the facts, but nobody knows when
that day will be.
Hell, you want less regs? Just shut the banks down and let
everyone borrow directly from the Fed.
Wow....just wow.
the only thing people will look at is how much money Obama
got and how much McCain got.
I think most of them will hear charges about donations going back
and forth. People who look closer will see that McCain's campaign
manager is a Fannie Mae lobbyist.
If there was no market for buying crappy loans and their
derivatives, what's up with Bear Stearns, Merrill, and Lehman being
so screwed when the foreclosure rates spiked?
if the government started buying up poison with no regard for the
fact that it is poison then other investors would get in on the
action as well.
"The government insures the value of poison. Lets get in the poison
buying business"
Why is this so hard for you to understand?
Seriously what part of "created the market do you not
understand"?
People who look closer will see that McCain's campaign
manager is a Fannie Mae lobbyist.
....
Really joe?
You want to go there?
You need to look at Obama's team a little harder.
"At what point do we blame the idiots who made these
loans?"
How about the idiots who borrowed the money and failed/refused to
prudently live within their means?
Of course those folks are voters so it is not a political winner
for any of the politicians to finger them. They are all merely
"victims"
You need to look at Obama's team a little harder.
The whole point is that McCain will be the one making these
attacks. Obama doesn't need to use this line of attack. If McCain
makes this attack, there's a pretty simple defense that pretty much
thwarts it. If the attack scores no points, it's a dead issue and a
win for Obama.
How about the idiots who borrowed the money and
failed/refused to prudently live within their means?
To be fair the right has their share of "market understanding"
ignoramuses as well.
It is not the loaners or the borrowers fault...it is government
economic planning that is at fault.
The loaners and the borrowers where rationally following market
signals....they just did not dig deep enough to realize that market
signals were being manipulated by government
created/sponsored/funded/insured Fannie Mae.
"He not only gave us political support, he gave us moral
support, so we were able to add taxpayer protections,"
Taxpayer protections? We use to call it pork.
if the government started buying up poison with no regard
for the fact that it is poison then other investors would get in on
the action as well.
"The government insures the value of poison. Lets get in the poison
buying business"
The government buying MBSs doesn't insure the value of
privately-held MBSs, joshua. You've hears some arguments that you
didn't quite folllow, but they blamed the Democrats, so you tried
to repeat them.
Why is this so hard for you to understand?
Because, however much you keep straining with the condescending
tone, your argument doesn't make sense. Do you even know that
there's a difference between buying a mortgage and selling
one?
If the private lenders were making crappy loans because they could
just sell them off, and didn't think those loans would actually
perform or those securities actually retain their value, there
wouldn't have been such a large majority of them in private
hands.
The whole point is that McCain will be the one making these
attacks. Obama doesn't need to use this line of attack. If McCain
makes this attack, there's a pretty simple defense that pretty much
thwarts it. If the attack scores no points, it's a dead issue and a
win for Obama.
Lets assume for the moment that McCain took as much money as Obama
(in fact he took less) and has equal number of ties (he has
less)....there is the small fact of the senate vote that does not
play well for Obama.
Joe has bragged a lot about Obama's senate record...perhaps you
should look close at that record and see how many times "affordable
housing" and "Fannie Mae" comes up it in it.
perhaps you should look close at that record and see how
many times "affordable housing" and "Fannie Mae" comes up it in
it.
This is why fools like joshua go for this fool's gold. It's the
reason why they try to drag in the CRA: because to a certain type
of thinker, anything related to Fannie Mae or affordable housing
that came before the Senate is exactly like everything else. Any
reform proposed for Fannie Mae would have stopped the mortgage
meltdown.
"The loaners and the borrowers where rationally following market
signals....they just did not dig deep enough to realize that market
signals were being manipulated by government
created/sponsored/funded/insured Fannie Mae."
The government's actions via Fannie & Freddie certainly did
distort the market for mortgages and had the effect of making
credit much more available to risky borrowers than would otherwise
be the case.
HOWEVER, none of that relieves any individual from the
responsibilty for his own actions and decisions or is any excuse
for his own foolishness.
Just because someone else is willing to lend you money does not
mean you can actually afford to carry that loan over it's term.
Ultimately it is the responsibilty of each individual to live
within his means and understand the contracts he is entering
into.
Some of those people were "investors" out to make a quick buck by
flipping houses. Others foolishly thought it was the responsiblity
of the bank to decide for them if they could really afford the
house they wanted. The government has been pushing the notion that
home ownsership is some sort of "entitlement" and a lot of people
bought that hook, line and sinker.
He not only gave us political support, he gave us moral
support, so we were able to add taxpayer protections,
I think he's using the word "protection" here in a certain, erm,
prophylactic sense. Kinda like telling your girlfriend not to
worry, you're wearing "protection." A thin layer of "protection"
doesn't change the fact that someone's getting fucked.
there wouldn't have been such a large majority of them in
private hands.
You need to look at those numbers again.
Fannie had close to half a trillion tied up in them, and was the
largest, by far, holder of them.
What do you think the value of sub-prime loans would be if Fannie
Mae never entered the market?
Take a close look at the value before Fannie got into it.
They were the market.
In 1995, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac began receiving affordable
housing credit for purchasing mortgage backed securities which
included loans to low income borrowers. This resulted in the
agencies purchasing subprime securities.[82] Subprime mortgage loan
originations surged by 25% per year between 1994 and 2003,
resulting in a nearly ten-fold increase in the volume of these
loans in just nine years.[83] As of November 2007 Fannie Mae held a
total of $55.9 billion of subprime securities and $324.7 billion of
Alt-A securities in their portfolios.[84] As of the 2008Q2 Freddie
Mac had $190 billion in Alt-A mortgages. Together they have more
than half of the $1 trillion of Alt-A mortgages.[85] The growth in
the subprime mortgage market, which included B, C and D paper
bought by private investors such as hedge funds, fed a housing
bubble that later burst.
A September 30, 1999 New York Times article stated, "... the Fannie
Mae Corporation is easing the credit requirements on loans... The
action... will encourage those banks to extend home mortgages to
individuals whose credit is generally not good enough... Fannie
Mae... has been under increasing pressure from the Clinton
Administration to expand mortgage loans among low and moderate
income people... borrowers whose incomes, credit ratings and
savings are not good enough... Fannie Mae is taking on
significantly more risk... the government-subsidized corporation
may run into trouble... prompting a government rescue... the move
is intended in part to increase the number of... home owners who
tend to have worse credit ratings..." [86]
On September 10, 2003, U.S. Congressman Ron Paul gave a speech to
Congress where he said that the then current government policies
encouraged lending to people who couldn't afford to pay the money
back, and he predicted that this would lead to a bailout, and he
introduced a bill to abolish these policies.
joshua,
Fannie had close to half a trillion tied up in them, and was
the largest, by far, holder of them. Fannie owned 13% of all
MBSs. Freddie owned another 5%.
That leaves 72% for the private sector. This delusion was systemic,
on both sides of the public/private line.
There's a plausible argument to be made that Freddie and Fannie and
the Fed encouraged too much credit to be expanded, but the
assertion that John McCain was trying to stop this or that Barack
Obama stopped reforms that would have stopped it is nonsense.
Just because someone else is willing to lend you money does
not mean you can actually afford to carry that loan over it's
term.
But y'know calling people stupid doesn't really get us
anywhere.
In ye olde ideal world, people wouldn't have made this
mistake.
But if, as Joshua claims (though joe denies), the market was
distorted by central planners to make home loans more
attractive to marginal would-be purchasers (perhaps because lenders
had a greater incentive to push such arrangements), then one would
expect some percentage of those marginal would-be buyers to fall
for it. Sure, they're still responsible for their actions, but if
the government is responsible for skewing the market in such a way
that it led to this, then that's the part of the equation that most
interests me, because that's the part that has to do with public
policy (unless one were to enact laws that decided for people what
they can and can't afford, which I sure as fuck hope doesn't
happen!).
here is a good one joe:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122212948811465427.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Subprime and Alt-A originations in the U.S. rose from less than
8% of all mortgages in 2003 to over 20% in 2006.
hmmm i wonder what Fannie Mae was doing between 2003 and 2006?
There's a plausible argument to be made that Freddie and
Fannie and the Fed encouraged too much credit to be expanded, but
the assertion that John McCain was trying to stop this or that
Barack Obama stopped reforms that would have stopped it is
nonsense.
Can't speak for anyone else, but I'm more interested in what we can
learn from this mess about good public policy rather than about its
implications for the presidential race.
Anyone catch seeing McCain's rally where he gave the
speech?
His rallies are taking on bizarre, yet entertaining,
characteristics. During todays rally, people just start screaming
random things in an attempt to get a chant going. Only it ends up
being about 7 or 8 people competing among 5 or 6 groups of 7 or 8
people all chanting different things. And all these different
groups seem to seize on the most awkward and inoportune time to
start yelling, completely throwing McCain off. Then, McCain will
make a minor point only to be interupted by some lone wacko
screaming - usually just "NOOOOOOO!" or LIIIIIARRRR"(when Obama's
name is mentioned) - which then causes McCain to have to stop and
grin a creepy grin while looking completely uncomfortable.
And if McCain did the quotes gestures with his fingers once while
being overly sarcastic he did it 20 times.
John McCain was trying to stop this or that Barack Obama
stopped reforms that would have stopped it is nonsense.
What about S.190?
http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/bdquery/z?d109:SN00190:@@@P
I don't know if Obama was for or against this bill..(i assume from
his love of Fannie Mae that he was against it)..but I am positive
McCain was for it.
Senator Obama was silent on the regulation of Fannie Mae and
Freddie Mac, and his Democratic allies in Congress opposed every
effort to rein them in.
These facts are inconvenient and burdensome. What's next: a public
denial of Barney Frank's infamous yet fabulous Freddie
"Pitcher" Mac bukkake party?
There are no clean hands in this debacle.
The chickens' homecoming is hilarious if not tragic for those few
innocents amongst us.
"Sure, they're still responsible for their actions, but if the
government is responsible for skewing the market in such a way that
it led to this, then that's the part of the equation that most
interests me, because that's the part that has to do with public
policy (unless one were to enact laws that decided for people what
they can and can't afford, which I sure as fuck hope doesn't
happen!)."
I'm not saying attention should not be focused on the government's
foolish attempts to engineer the specific economic outcome of
increased home ownership by lower income people (a function that is
nowhere assigned to the federal government in the text of the
Constitution by the way), all I'm saying is that the
irresponsibilty of individuals seems to be largely getting a pass
in all this because it isn't a political winner.
There was a time when there was such shame in society associated
with defaulting on debt that it was a desperate last resort for
people and people were more prudent about getting into debt in the
first place.
Now the concept of individual responsibilty has been eroded so much
that people feel no shame at all about welching on deals that they
made. And the politicians who let them off the hook by calling them
"victims" further exacerbate the notion of individual
responsibilty.
Can't speak for anyone else, but I'm more interested in what
we can learn from this mess about good public policy rather than
about its implications for the presidential race.
I guess it sort of depends on who wins the election on what will be
done to correct the policies.
I have little faith in Republicans to fix it and no faith in
Democrats to fix it.
I guess we can always put our faith into government technocrats to
whisper into the ear of the winner.
Whatever strange calculus that goes on in the minds of the electorate, the MSM reports that they trust Obama on the Economy more than McCain.
That is strange; it is like voters think he has experience or
something.
I think you should refer to the original speach where Obama said
that sub-prime loans were a good idea :
"Subprime lending started off as a good idea - helping Americans
buy homes who couldn't previously afford to. Financial institutions
created new financial instruments that could securitize these
loans, slice them into finer and finer risk categories and spread
them out among investors around the country and around the
world.
In theory, this should have allowed mortgage lending to be less
risky and more diversified. But as certain lenders and brokers
began to see how much money could be made, they began to lower
their standards. Some appraisers began inflating their estimates to
get the deals done. Some borrowers started claiming income they
didn't have just to qualify for the loans, and some were engaging
in irresponsible speculation. But many borrowers were tricked into
glossing over the fine print. And ratings agencies began rating
bundles of different kinds of these loans as low-risk even though
they were very high-risk."
I believe I have heard these types of opinions express in your
pages in the past.
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