The Power of O

Jesse Walker | August 6, 2008

A pair of economics students probe the Oprah Effect:

Our results suggest that Oprah Winfrey's endorsement of Barack Obama prior to the 2008 Democratic Presidential Primary generated a statistically and qualitatively significant increase in the number of votes Obama received as well as in the total number of votes cast. For example, a 10 percent change in the county-level circulation of Oprah Magazine is associated with an increased vote share for Obama of approximately 0.2 percentage points. This estimated effect was higher in areas holding caucuses rather than primary elections. In terms of voter participation, a 10 percent change in circulation is associated with a 0.06 percentage point increase in turnout. Similar effects from the endorsement were found in areas with differentially high sales of books included in Oprah's Book Club. In total, we estimate that the endorsement was responsible for 1,015,559 votes for Obama. The 95 percent confidence interval around this estimate is higher than the difference in votes between Obama and Hillary Clinton in our sample. This suggests that Winfrey's endorsement was responsible for the difference in the popular vote in our sample.

I'm not sure book and magazine sales are a perfect proxy for Oprah's influence. But I hope the meme catches on, just so Obama can make a Kennedy/Romney-style speech swearing that he won't be a mindless puppet of the Church of Oprah that elected him.

Comments

Episiarch|8.6.08 @ 9:53AM|#

But who did Mingey endorse, and what effect did that have?

NP|8.6.08 @ 9:55AM|#

Never been big on O, but just read today that she earns over $300m each year. No other TeeVee celeb comes close. If that's not Grrl Power then I don't know what is.

NP|8.6.08 @ 9:56AM|#

$385m, to be precise.

|8.6.08 @ 10:36AM|#

In total, we estimate that the endorsement was responsible for 1,015,559 votes for Obama.

Horseshit. Oprah is responcible for 90%+ of Obama's votes. If it wasn't for her, nobody outside of Illinois would have ever heard of him.

|8.6.08 @ 10:38AM|#

Besides, how else do you explain Obama's ability to overcome the Clinton machine? In the whole of the Country, only Oprah has that much juice.

Franklin Harris|8.6.08 @ 11:58AM|#

Overrated comic-book artist Alex Ross is depicting Obama as Superman (now available on T-shirts!). It's getting worse than the Obama-as-Messiah meme.

|8.6.08 @ 1:11PM|#

$385 million? Most of that is freaking windfall - tax Oprah an extra 25% and use the money to buy new tvs for those still using antennas.

|8.6.08 @ 1:27PM|#

How big is Oprah Winfrey? She's going to have her own network. Discovery is, in essence, handing over Discovery Health to Oprah. Last I heard, the network will actually be called the Oprah Winfrey Network (OWN), and she will be given the lion's share of control.

Oprah's insane popularity, though reputedly waning, has never made any sense to me. Nevertheless, it is real.

NP|8.6.08 @ 7:57PM|#

creech, I like the idea, but that wouldn't be very libertarian. :)

"Oprah's insane popularity, though reputedly waning, has never made any sense to me. Nevertheless, it is real."

Agreed.