Nick Gillespie | April 9, 2008
From the L.A. Times' account of yesterday's Senate hearings on the Iraq War:
As expected, back-to-back Senate committee hearings spotlighting Army Gen. David H. Petraeus became a confrontation between two immovable forces. But there was no real decision at stake: President Bush is expected Thursday to endorse Petraeus' recommendation for a suspension of withdrawals in July, insisting that security gains over the last 15 months can lead toward a sustainable future, with continued U.S. help....
Democrat after Democrat, including the party's two remaining presidential contenders, Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama, questioned whether the costs of the strategy proposed by Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker, who also testified, were too high....
By keeping force levels at 140,000 into the autumn -- a few thousand more than before Bush announced the troop buildup in January 2007 -- U.S. officials can build on recent gains and the Iraqi government can gradually take over responsibility, he argued.
"This approach does not allow establishment of a set withdrawal timetable," he acknowledged. "However, it does provide the flexibility those of us on the ground need to preserve the still fragile security gains our troopers have fought so hard and sacrificed so much to achieve."
Petraeus refused to specify what might take place following a recommended 45-day suspension in troop reductions....
Not surprisingly, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) lauded Petraeus: "This means rejecting, as we did in 2007, the calls for a reckless and irresponsible withdrawal of our forces at the moment we are succeeding." Beyond the Dems, he was countered by several GOP senators, including Sen. Richard Lugar of Indiana, who noted, "Simply appealing for more time to make progress is insufficient."
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Six more months.
Oddly enough, that means troops would start filtering home...two
weeks before a presidential election.
Hmm.
More like six more years.
It seems the Democrats are incapable of doing anything against
Bush's wishes even with Congressional majorities. Way to fulfill a
"mandate".
What, again, is the difference between the parties?
The way these bastards talk about troop withdrawals reminds me
of...
"Harvest is when I need you the most. Only one season more.
This year we'll make enough on the harvest that I'll be able to
hire some more hands and then, you can go to the academy next year.
You must understand, I need you here, Luke."
Luke knew that there would always be another season.
And in recent polling, Sen. John McCain (RINO-Ariz.) is seen by
the USAian public as the top presidential candidate that they trust
the most on the war issue.
IF the public were supporting a withdrawl in the way some, like
MoveOn.Org and a portion of the Reason staff, keep claiming that
they do, there would be no shortage of votes for withdrawl.
In other news: San Franciscians have discovered another country to
protest besides the USA. The real news here is that San
Franciscians are protesting against a Communist country. They were
treating Tibet the same way in the 1960s and 1970s, while supplying
North Vietnam, but somehow no protests against China (or the
Soviets either) erupted back then.
Wasn't Sen. Lugar the one who asked that incredibly stupid series of crap to the General?
David,
Guessing that many are the same, especially that whole 'protest
junkie' class who protest whichever way the fashion winds blow.
Tell me again- what is it, exactly, that we are
winning?
The Global War on Terror, along with the Central Asian
Theater.
Where's my split?
If you join our team now there are some pretty hefty bonuses. If
you join their team, there is a promise of a small group of women
who don't know anything about sex yet.
An active duty general is always going to repeat administration
talking points. Did anyone really think that General Petraeus was
going to disagree with his superiors in the chain of command
publicly?
Military opinions that disagree with stated policy are often
bluntly expressed behind closed doors. Dissenting in public is just
not done. The fact that military leadership publicly kowtows to the
Commander in Chief is one of the things I love about our
system.
David,
Some members of the SF community have been protesting Chinese
practices in Tibet since at least the 1990s.
They were treating Tibet the same way in the 1960s and
1970s...
It is fair to say that the Chinese government's activities in Tibet
are not as awful today as they were during the Cultural Revolution.
This isn't an excuse for any current actions, but things are not
exactly the same as they were during earlier periods of PRC
rule.
David,
From what I can see of the polling the U.S. population appears to
be rather equally divided on who to support at this point.
See here.
Why don't they just re-air General Petraeus's last testimony? It would be a lot more efficient and save a lot of people a lot of time.
"Tell me again- what is it, exactly, that we are winning?"
"The Global War on Terror, along with the Central Asian
Theater"
Are we really winning or will our meddling foreign policy just
create more terrorism down the road? How would we react if we had
foreign troops in our country? Wouldn't we resent it and do
everything we could to get them out? Would we then be terrorists?
Something to think about.
Tell me again- what is it, exactly, that we are winning?
An industrial strength hair dryer.
"From what I can see of the polling the U.S. population appears
to be rather equally divided on who to support at this
point."
So?
It would be a lot more efficient and save a lot of people a
lot of time.
This is the Government. "Efficiency" and "saving time" are not
desirable outcomes.
Calidore,
Guy was implying that it was the same people who'd protested the
Vietnam war(but not China's poor human rights record)in the 60's
who are suddenly protesting China now.
It is fair to say that the Chinese government's activities
in Tibet are not as awful today as they were during the Cultural
Revolution. This isn't an excuse for any current actions, but
things are not exactly the same as they were during earlier periods
of PRC rule.
I was not forwarding any excuse for Chinese actions from any time
period. Just found it curious that the Chinese actions have not
changed much, but the protestors have. Maybe it has something to do
with the Chinese ratting out Iran's nuclear weapons program or
inviting a 'little freeier' market system, but I doubt it.
Anybody know if Moscow has reconstuted their useful idiot program
yet?
"Oddly enough, that means troops would start filtering
home...two weeks before a presidential election."
Gasoline prices are also expected to come down to $2 a gallong
around that time too.
bookworm,
Just like they were supposed to right before the 2004 and 2006
elections as part of a Saudi 'plot' to keep GWB and his friendly
Congress in power?
David,
Er, yeah. I meant for those comments to be directed at Guy Montag.
Many apologies.
Guy Montag,
In the U.S. and throughout the world there has been broad support
across ideological lines for Tibet for many decades. This is well
known.
Don't back down, Guy! Not One Step Back!
Keep it up all the way to election day!
I found out one new (and disturbing) thing from yesterday's
hearings: Iraq has a budget surplus, but refuses to pay a cent for
our occupation costs.
Germany, South Korea, and Japan, btw, pay for the bases we have
there.
As for the Tibet thing, I think a lot of the people protesting it were either A) not alive in the 60s or B) if they were, they were in elementary school.
Iraq has a budget surplus?!?!
Yes, that is
correct.
We really are suckers, aren't we?
IF the public were supporting a withdrawl in the way some,
like MoveOn.Org and a portion of the Reason staff, keep claiming
that they do, there would be no shortage of votes for
withdrawl.
What would you call the red-assed spanking the Dems handed the Reps
in 2006? Just because the Dems are spineless pussies doesn't mean
people didn't want a withdrawal.
Maybe Guy and the dead-enders should read some actualy polling instead of
living in a 2003 time warp.
A majority disapprove of the war, a majority believe it should have
never been fought, and a majority would like to see the next
President begin to withdraw troops in 2009.
Yep, we're suckers. Why would Iraq pay for anything, or form a working government, as long as the US position boils down to "If you do nothing to reconcile your political power struggles, we will have no choice but to continue patrolling your streets and giving money to your citizens."
Cesar,
Well, even if they were protesting in the 1960s I'm not quite sure
what that has to do with protests over the current situation in
Tibet.
Gen Patraeus gave the Iraqi military a B- after their success in Basra. Sure wish he'd been my prof in college, woulda helped my GPA.
Calidore-
Absolutely nothing, but this is the kulturkampf! Things
don't have to make sense as long as you can bash the other
side.
Ah, I remember last year, when the Dems were going to force
surrender in this unwinnable war.
Now violence is way down, all three Presidential candidates agree
we need to stay until things are stable, and we mostly argue over
how expensive it will be.
And soon Iraqis will vote again.
And soon Iraqis will vote again.
Maybe they can elect another Prime Minister for A-mad to kiss.
TallDave,
What does it mean that there has been a recent uptick in violence
over the past month or two?
Cesar,
An important question is how much power the Iraqi government
actually wields; if they don't wield much power, then how important
are elections in reality?
I've been thinking that now that Global War on Terror has lost some of its cache, the next step for the politicians is the Interstellar War on Terror. The Alpha-Centaurions hate our freedoms!
And soon Iraqis will vote again.
And in a bizarre coincidence, al-Sadr's party has been barred from
running.
Gentlemen, to democracy, stability, and the end of Islamism!
Calidore, they don't mean shit. Thats why there have been
something like 1000+ "turning point elections" since 2003, but they
seem to resolve nothing.
Oh, another fun fact: The number of Iraqis living in absolute
poverty has actually increased since 2003!
Freedom and Democracy!
What does it mean that there has been a recent uptick in
violence over the past month or two?
Mostly that Maliki is finally, to great political acclaim, moving
against the Shia militias/gangs that are now the major problem in
Iraq. More violence in the short term, less in the long run.
Anyways, the uptick is pretty small; violence is still way below
where it was last year.
Sadr, btw, has offered to disband his militia. All the other
political parties appear set to pass legislation that would bar him
from elections if he doesn't.
Oh, another fun fact: The number of Iraqis living in
absolute poverty has actually increased since 2003!
Not even close. Per capita GDP has more than doubled, as has
electricity. All basic services have increased.
http://www.brookings.edu/saban/~/media/Files/Centers/Saban/Iraq%20Index/index.pdf
p44
TallDave,
More violence in the short term, less in the long
run.
What exactly warrants this prediction?
Anyways, the uptick is pretty small; violence is still way
below where it was last year.
Yes, it is back down to the levels it was in 2005 or 2006, correct?
Which were considered by many to be quite problematic at the
time.
Sadr, btw, has offered to disband his militia. All the other
political parties appear set to pass legislation that would bar him
from elections if he doesn't.
So, what happens if he "disbands" them and then wins significant
support in the elections?
Rising violence demonstrates success just as clearly as
declining violence.
As does violence staying steady.
Sadr, btw, has offered to disband his militia.
In exchange for the Iraqi government setting a timetable for the
withdrawal of American forces.
Oh, and you forgot to point out in that report that the Iraqi
government gets 5/11 on the benchmarks they were supposed to
meet.
Less than a 50%. Thats a failing grade.
And in a bizarre coincidence, al-Sadr's party has been
barred from running.
Only if he continues operating his militia. That appears to be the
consensus of Iraq's political parties.
Now, your concern for Sadr's rights is touching, and I suppose one
could argue Sadr is being treated unfairly, but I very much doubt
we'd let him for office here if he were doing what he's been
doing.
TallDave,
Per capita GDP may says nothing about the absolute number of people
living in poverty in a nation.
More violence in the short term, less in the long
run.
This is what we heard during both Falluja battles, the Najaf
battle, and the 6-week war itself. No, but this time, it's totally
going to work.
Oh, and you forgot to point out in that report that the
Iraqi government gets 5/11 on the benchmarks they were supposed to
meet.
Again, wrong. They have met 12 of the 18 benchmarks, and there has
been progress on the other 6.
This is what we heard during both Falluja battles, the Najaf
battle, and the 6-week war itself.
And lo and behold, violence is way down. There hasn't been an
attack on our forces in Fallujah in weeks.
That appears to be the consensus of Iraq's political
parties.
Like SCIRI, which runs the Badr Brigades, and the two Kurdish
parties, each of which has its peshmerga militia.
Gee, that IS impressive. Militia groups want their opponents to
disarm. Sounds like the light at the end of the tunnel to me.
Are you high? Look at page 15 of the link you sent me. Its a
5/11
That page hasn't been updated. Most sources agree 12 of the 18 have
been met.
Like SCIRI, which runs the Badr Brigades, and the two
Kurdish parties, each of which has its peshmerga
militia.
They all operate under the aegis of the Iraqi gov't, unlike
Sadr.
TallDave,
Given the rather poor performance of the U.S., etc. in Iraq since
statue was torn down I'm not quite sure why I shouldn't be a
skeptic about any future predictions re: Iraq.
And lo and behold, violence is way down.
Holy crap, you don't even know the history of this war!
"Weeks?" I'm talking about First and Second Falluja, and you're
talking about a time frame lasting weeks?
Good Lord.
TallDave,
So, the Maliki government can give direct orders to the peshmerga
militia and they will follow said orders? Can you give me an
example of such?
Per capita GDP may says nothing about the absolute number of
people living in poverty in a nation.
Which is why I cited all the other evidence.
Also, that report says nothing about the poverty rate. Theres not even a sentence on it.
They all operate under the aegis of the Iraqi gov't, unlike
Sadr.
Yes, the government our troops are dying to keep in power has put
the Iranian-backed Badr militia under its official aegis.
That's supposed to make me feel better, why, exactly?
Now, your concern for Sadr's rights is touching
And this assclown wants to parade his support for democracy. Game
over, man. You just showed your hand, and it's a loser.
So, the Maliki government can give direct orders to the
peshmerga militia and they will follow said orders? Can you give me
an example of such?
Just yesterday they indicated they will send troops to Basra under
Maliki's command.
It also says Iraq is about as "free" as the Palestinian
territories and Morocco.
Yeah, its really a Belgium in the Middle East alright. I guess that
page must not be updated, either.
We should support the Iraqi government over Sadr because Sadr
has a militia.
The govenrment also uses private militias.
But that doesn't matter, because those militias are government
militias.
Gee, I can't understand why this has turned into a debacle.
TallDave,
You specifically mentioned per capita income, electricity, and
basic services; these by themselves are not measures of
poverty.
Yes, the government our troops are dying to keep in power
has put the Iranian-backed Badr militia under its official aegis.
That's supposed to make me feel better, why, exactly?
Every Shia group was "Iranian-backed" at some point. The Badrists
have mostly joined the government and cut ties with Iran. They are
armed and paid by the elected government. Sadr's people, otoh,
still have extensive Iranian backing.
And this assclown wants to parade his support for democracy.
Game over, man. You just showed your hand, and it's a
loser.
I don't know where people get the idea we can't discuss Iraq
reasonably.
TallDave,
Just yesterday they indicated they will send troops to Basra
under Maliki's command.
Got a link concerning that?
The govenrment also uses private militias.
We have an Army too. Guess how it was formed? Hint: it involved
local militias.
So, you've just compared the Islamist Sadr militias, the quasi-communist PKK, and Sunni nationalist militias filled with ex-Saddam diehards to our National Guard? Or were you comparing them to the Minutemen? Wow.
TallDave,
There was a reason that the embryonic U.S. government formed a
professional military as soon as it could; the state militias (as
many historians have described), while enthusiastic at the start of
the war, were balkanized affairs which were hard to pry out of a
state. Also, as far as I know, the state militias were not used as
the platform to create the professional army that Washington, etc.
would lead.
You specifically mentioned per capita income, electricity,
and basic services; these by themselves are not measures of
poverty.
They are certainly relevant. Since no support has been provided for
the assertion twice as many Iraqis are living in poverty, it's
difficult to know what this refers to. It certainly seems unlikely,
given the various improvements in services.
The Alpha-Centaurions hate our freedoms!
They'll just have to get in line.
--------
The number of Iraqis living in absolute poverty has actually
increased since 2003!
Tell us, deadenders, your recommendations for resolving the pesky
issue of Iraqi refugees. You proudly boast of your deep dedication
to the Iraqis' pursuit of happiness. How many slots have you opened
up for immigration to America?
So how does it feel to know that Iraq is about as free as Morocco (a semi-absolute monarchy) and the Palestinian territories (half kleptocracy, half Islamic emirate)?
The Badrists have mostly joined the government and cut ties
with Iran.
Well, 1 out of 2 isn't bad.
Sadr's people, otoh, still have extensive Iranian backing.
The nationalist Sadrists have the least Iranian backing of any
Shiite group, including the Malaki government.
I don't know where people get the idea we can't discuss Iraq
reasonably. Reasonable people can, amongst ourselves. The
interjection of people who keep yammering about turning corners,
lights in tunnels, and other meaningless buzzwords, on the other
hand, doesn't improve the level of discourse.
TallDave,
They may be relevant, but they do not measure it.
It certainly seems unlikely, given the various improvements in
services.
Actually, depending the distribution of those improvements, the
doubling of such could indeed be the case. See, that's the problem
with an average; and average tells you nothing about the
distribution of a particular thing.
Calidore,
Sure, I'm just making the point that any new democratic republic is
probably going to have a military formed out of what were
previously militias.
Also, as far as I know, the state militias were not used as the
platform to create the professional army that Washington, etc.
would lead.
Actually, they were. Where else could the new nation find men of
military age and training?
Iraqi unemployment is about 60%, and has been for years.
And they have a budget surplus. A surplus!
So, TallDave, the next time we have an Israel thread I guess you'll say the Palestinian territories are a "democratic republic"?
The nationalist Sadrists have the least Iranian backing of
any Shiite group, including the Malaki government.
What are you basing this statement on? Sadr is reportedly in Iran,
and the military is constantly reporting they find Sadrists with
Iranian weapons and Iranian advisors.
Maliki and SCII don't need Iran, they have their own oil money.
Cesar,
Since we are dealing with predictions, etc. it seems to me a useful
exercise is to ask which will be the more successful nation twenty
years hence - Iraq or Iran? For all its problems it seems to me
that the answer (based on current trends, etc.) is probably
Iran.
Calidore call it a feeling but I have a hunch Iran (probably
along with Israel) will be a piece of radioactive slag in 20
years.
The Middle East is either going to wake up, or be irradiated by the
crazies.
Iraqi unemployment is about 60%, and has been for
years.
It's difficult to measure, but is generally estimated at between
27-40%.
http://www.brookings.edu/saban/~/media/Files/Centers/Saban/Iraq%20Index/index.pdf
p41
Cesar, the surplus that has you so excited is the result of a
budget process that was done when oil was cheaper. The gov't budget
is heavily dependent on oil prices.
Ok Dave, so why are they just sitting on it when their country
desperately needs money?
Or maybe they can help fund the war we are fighting for them?
Or at least we can LOAN them the money instead of GIVING it
away?
TallDave . . . so tell us . . . when will we get out of Iraq? How long do you think we should stay? And . . . did you happen to read Pat Buchanan's article yesterday about Petraeus and Iraq. If not, I highly recommend that you do. I do not always agree with the man . . . but he is spot-on with his assesment.
TallDave,
While some of the personnel came from the state militias (indeed,
in the initial phase of its creation the vast bulk of them), the
Continental Army itself was created by the Congress.
Ok Dave, so why are they just sitting on it when their
country desperately needs money?
Because that would require a new budget, and they are barely able
to spend the original budget.
The Iraqi gov't has had some difficulty spending the money because
transparency and accountability is such a new concept for Iraq.
They spent much of last year determining the procedures by which
money would be disbursed. Now some large projects are starting to
get off the ground.
Now some large projects are starting to get off the ground.
You mean Malakis Swiss bank account? Because thats probably where a
good portion of the money is going.
Thats what happened in the Palestinian territories, you know, that
other free democratic western government in the Middle East.
Do you think, Dave, they should have to pay us back the costs of
the occupation at some point?
Or should they just get a free ride courtesy of the American
taxpayer?
TallDave . . . so tell us . . . when will we get out of
Iraq?
When it is stable. I would guess this will take a few years, with
us taking a smaller and smaller piece of a smaller and smaller
combat mission. The Iraqi Army gets a little stronger every month,
and the militias and AQ get a little weaker.
How long do you think we should stay?
TallDave,
According to the note at the bottom of that page depending on who
you ask it is anywhere between 25% and 48%. Further, the report's
own numbers on the matter have had a range of 25%-40% since
November 2005. Clearly, on the employment front little has changed
for a few years now.
"How long do you think we should stay?"
Maybe 100 years, 1,000 years, or 10,000 years.
TallDave,
BTW, given the level of unemployment there it is not surprising
that it is easy to hire people to plant roadside bombs.
Do you think, Dave, they should have to pay us back the
costs of the occupation at some point?
It's nice we've gone from arguing whether American troops are the
problem to whether Iraqis should be so grateful for their presence
that they actually pay us.
But to answer your question, yes I think at some point it would be
nice in a symbolic way if they chipped in for the ongoing
training.
TallDave, given the Iraqis' penchant for wantonly killing each other along ethno-sectarian lines, do you really think the country can be stabilised? I say this as someone who sympathizes with your arguments but finds it difficult to maintain any optimism with regard to this situation.
What does it mean for Iraq to be stable exactly?
It's a good question, and one that Obama, to his credit, seemed to
make a real, honest attempt to address yesterday.
I think when the Iraqi Army can handle its own logistics and
civilian deaths are consistently under ~500/mo that will probably
be close enough to stable that we can transition to a purely
overwatch and training posture.
TallDave,
So not right now since civilian casualities are now over ~500 a
month again.
the military is constantly reporting they find Sadrists with
Iranian weapons and Iranian advisors.
That's nice. When are we going to get a look at these weapons and
prisoners. If I remember correctly, the last weapons dog-and-pony
show was canceled midway through.
Anyway, given that so many who support the war argue that history will justify the war I will remain skeptical of its benefits until history does justify it.
TallDave, given the Iraqis' penchant for wantonly killing
each other along ethno-sectarian lines, do you really think the
country can be stabilised?
Yes, because I think it has more to do with seizing power and
wealth than sectarian philosophy or ethnic identity per se.
Ethnosectarian groups were just natural groupings by which cliques
could form to do so. Democracy will tend to reduce those tensions
by equitably distributing power and wealth and creating consensus,
as we saw this week with Maliki turning on Sadr with the support of
Sunnis and Kurds.
TallDave, So not right now since civilian casualities are
now over ~500 a month again.
Yes, and even more so because the Iraqi Army still has lots of
logistical difficulties. Lots of teeth, but not enough tail.
TallDave,
Democracy will tend to reduce those tensions by equitably
distributing power and wealth and creating consensus, as we saw
this week with Maliki turning on Sadr with the support of Sunnis
and Kurds.
Is that really democracy in action or something else?
BTW, given the level of unemployment there it is not surprising that it is easy to hire people to plant roadside bombs.
Dave I'm not talking about "chipping in" and being "Grateful". I mean holding their feet to the fire and making them pay us back whether they like it or not.
TallDave, BTW, given the level of unemployment there it is
not surprising that it is easy to hire people to plant roadside
bombs.
Yes, in the conference calls with the Provincial Reconstruction
Teams I have heard that exact point made many times. That's why
they're trying to get them into small businesses with micro-loans,
working on reconstruction projects, and other more productive
activities for which they can be paid.
Since we are dealing with predictions, etc. it seems to me a
useful exercise is to ask which will be the more successful nation
twenty years hence - Iraq or Iran? For all its problems it seems to
me that the answer (based on current trends, etc.) is probably
Iran.
Unless McCain has his way and we "bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb Iran."
It's the neo-con's plan to make sure they're right about Iran being
hopeless.
Cesar,
That is unlikely ever to happen. Unless the Iraqi economy
undertakes a dramatic upturn in the next few decades that is. Does
anyone anticipate some sort of post-war economic miracle?
TallDave,
Yet unemployment there remains at a "stable," yet high level.
That page hasn't been updated. Most sources agree 12 of the
18 have been met.
Hasn't been updated?!?! It is dated April 7, 2008!
Is there a new version that was published today to take into
account major accomplishments that happened when the Iraqi
parliament pulled all-nighters on Monday and Tuesday?
To be a good libertarian we must support liberty in Iraq. If
that means enslaving american workers with higher taxes then so be
it, any cost is worth it! I know some of the anti-semites,
isolationist and violently anti-war traders are pointing out that
2007 had the highest death toll of any year yet in this war...but
this huge decline in violence is a hard fact. The great americans
Bush and Petraus and MCCaina dn all serious thinkers agree, even
Hillary Clinton. Al Qaeda is getting weaker everyday, reports are
that the membership is down from 110,000 in 2007 to 107,000 in
2008. While we still have some work to get all the way down to 2001
levels of 59....we are well on our way.
Thanks to the new loan 2 trillion dollars in loans we have acquired
from China and Russia and Saudi Arabia our battle against
anti-democratic countries is a rousing success.
The best news is that our economy is strong. Our great bipartisian
leaders who have billions in Military Industrial Complex stock have
seen profits quadruple sine we began this war on terror. Sure some
of the populist idiots in Ohio have lost their grease monkey jobs,
but we will install new social prorams to help the less
cosmopolitan adjust to a world economy.
In the interest of the morons who worked in rust belt industries we
are ramping up the war on drugs again as this will put create great
new job markets for snitches, gun confiscators and taser
manufacturing. These innovative new growth industries will lead us
into the future.
That's nice. When are we going to get a look at these
weapons and prisoners. If I remember correctly, the last weapons
dog-and-pony show was canceled midway through.
There are reports every few days. It happens so often, they have a
name for them: the "special groups." More than a few military
officers have made reference to them.
Here's a couple from this past Monday and Friday.
http://www.mnf-iraq.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=18235&Itemid=128
http://www.mnf-iraq.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=18111&Itemid=128
And a list of hundreds of them:
http://www.mnf-iraq.com/index.php?searchword=iranian&option=com_search&Itemid=
It wouldn't be an Iraq thread without you, TallDave. It's almost like this war has given you a reason for living.
Hasn't been updated?!?! It is dated April 7, 2008! Is there
a new version that was published today to take into account major
accomplishments that happened when the Iraqi parliament pulled
all-nighters on Monday and Tuesday?
That's the date for the overall document. Note that the as-of date
for the benchmarks is March 19th.
For instance, they still say the provincial elections were vetoed.
That veto was lifted some time ago.
Also, those are not the official benchmarks, of which there are 18.
Those 11 are benchmarks created by the authors of the
document.
Here's a good roundup:
http://frankwarner.typepad.com/free_frank_warner/2008/04/12-of-iraqs-18.html
It wouldn't be an Iraq thread without you, TallDave. It's
almost like this war has given you a reason for living.
Not war, freedom. I have this weird attachment to it.
Silly, I know.
TallDave,
I didn't see anything in the first two links regarding a link
between Sadr and Iranian weapons, personnel, etc. Is there some
language that I am missing? If so, please quote it.
Yet unemployment there remains at a "stable," yet high
level.
Again, no one really knows.
It's certainly lower now than in 2006 in many Sunni areas. All the
shops in Anbar are open again.
I would suggest reading Michael Totten's Fallujah visit for a feel
of how much better the economic situation is there.
http://www.michaeltotten.com
Calidore,
The first link mentions Sadr specifically.
"Coalition forces will continue to seek out suspected criminals who
threaten the peace and security of Iraqi citizens," said Cmdr.
Scott Rye, MNF-I spokesman. "We will not tolerate those who choose
to defy the cease-fire pledge of al-Sayyid Moqtada al-Sadr,"
Anytime you see a mention of "Special Groups" they are typically
referring to Sadrists, rogue or sanctioned.
Does anyone anticipate some sort of post-war economic
miracle?
The IMF is predicting 7% growth, iirc. The World Bank is predicting
growth in the low teens.
ya to me and Talldave this isn't a war....this is freedom.
War would be if we had to go fight. You see we car SO SO much about
freedom that we want lots of other people to go shoot each other
and we want to force the selfish american workers to fund it. I
know they just want to enjoy freedom, but sometimes I hate those
selfish, rotten isolationist so much that I kinda enjoy having them
pay higher taxes to fund these freedom campaigns.
How can you enjoy your new freedom that is coming if you don't pay
more in taxes, no pain no gain.
The other part of this war for freedom that you don't understand is
that the more we borrow from China, Saudi Arabia and Russia, the
more free your children will be as well!
wow the IMF and WOrld bank are anticipating huge growth?!? maybe we can get the Iraqi people to take out some loans to construction projects through Bechtel based ont hose growth estimates....then if they can't quite make the payments we might have to increase taxes on the Iraqi working class later...but they'll be so free they won't care if we raise taxes to 80%!!! now that is freedom all libertarians can appreciate!
Freedom is Iraqis voting and forming hundreds of free newspapers, radio and TC stations, freedom to own telephones and computers and cell phones and generators, freedom to have political parties and talk about politics without the government having you maimed or killed for disrespecting their leaders.
For instance, they still say the provincial elections were
vetoed. That veto was lifted some time ago.
Do you even read the stuff that you claim support your views?
"February 2008: Parliament passed legislation outlining provincial
powers that calls for elections by October 1, 2008. After
originally being vetoed by the presidency council, it was approved
March 2008."
freedom is being a sunni who gets his whole vilalge rounded up and executed for having the same last name as a insurgent. Then having Petraus brag about how there is less sunni violence so it is a huge succes.
TallDave,
Again, no one really knows.
I am using the link that you provided after all, and drawing
conclusions based on that. Earliar you stated that it was
"difficult to measure." Is it now impossible to measure?
Anbar has a fairly small population right? The vast majority of the
population lives elsewhere in otherwords. Therefore anecdotal
observations of how business is doing there probably isn't a good
proxy for the rest of the nation.
Also, it's probably worth noting they are ahead of 16 other Arab countries in that index -- including Kuwait, which isn't normally regarded as oppressive.
TallDave Kuwait is an absolute monarchy with a rubber-stamp
parliament and penalties for commiting crimes such as public
floggings.
We don't regard them as oppressive because we like trading with
them.
TallDave,
Well, the quoted language is mentioning those who are going against
the ceasefire; which presumably on its face means that they are
opposed to Sadr's command about the ceasefire. That of course gets
into the murky details of exactly what is going on in the Sadr
organization.
As for the second, does "Special Groups" always refer to Sadrists,
sometimes, half of the time or what?
But I'll remember that rating to the next Israel thread, don't
worry.
Hey, I even hear the Palestinians have elections too!
Freedom!
I am using the link that you provided after all, and drawing
conclusions based on that. Earliar you stated that it was
"difficult to measure." Is it now impossible to measure?
Well, we can probably say with some certainty it is more than 10%
and less than 50%. It's difficult to measure, as the link
says:
"There is an inherent difficulty in measuring the Iraqi rate of
unemployment over time. Considering the increase in
entrepreneurial
activity after the end of the war, we have for the purposes of this
database assumed that there has been an improvement in unemployment
levels, and hence weighted information supporting such a conclusion
heavier than contradictory data reports. N/A= Not available"
Anbar has a fairly small population right? The vast majority of
the population lives elsewhere in otherwords.
Anbar is sparsely populated but large. I want to say it's 1-2
million people but don't remember for sure. It probably had the
highest unemployment of any area in 2004 - 2006.
Baghdad is also much more peaceful and probably has considerably
lower unemployment due to resumed commerce.
TallDave,
Given the miserable shape of the current Iraqi economy 7% growth
does not by itself portend an "economic miracle."
Freedom is Iraqis ... forming hundreds of free newspapers,
radio and TC stations...
I've noted this before because it is important to realize that vast
swaths of the reporters in Iraq have either been killed or have to
had to flee into exile.
...free to have political parties and talk about politics
without the government having you maimed or killed for
disrespecting their leaders.
Have the government death squads stopped operating in Iraq yet?
TallDave Kuwait is an absolute monarchy with a rubber-stamp
parliament and penalties for commiting crimes such as public
floggings.
So for the area, you can see Iraq is fairly enlightened. A long way
to go, but a great deal of progress from 2002.
As for the second, does "Special Groups" always refer to
Sadrists, sometimes, half of the time or what?
The military seems to think the majority are Sadrists or Sadrist
splinter groups.
TallDave,
Its a rather simple point; does the survey state between November
of 2005 and today that the rate of unemployment has held steady
somewhere between 25% and 40% or not?
Given the miserable shape of the current Iraqi economy 7%
growth does not by itself portend an "economic miracle."
I didn't say it was. I just stated the facts as known.
I've noted this before because it is important to realize that
vast swaths of the reporters in Iraq have either been killed or
have to had to flee into exile.
True, they have a long way to go. But some press freedom is better
than the none they had under Saddam.
TallDave,
In other words, "Special Groups" can refer to non-Sadrists,
Sadrists and former Sadrists? Right? If so, then the folks
mentioned in the link could in fact not be or no longer be
associated with Sadr. Not that I think Sadr is a great guy or
anything.
Its a rather simple point; does the survey state between
November of 2005 and today that the rate of unemployment has held
steady somewhere between 25% and 40% or not?
It's not a survey, it's an estimate, but yes that is what it
says.
The actual unemployment rate has almost certainly dropped between
2005 and now, given the better security conditions.
TallDave,
Looks like to me, provided the link that you brought to this, that
the economic situation hasn't gotten better in Iraq from an
employment perspective since November 2005.
Talldave, do you not see the slightest little problem in insisting that increasing the tax burden on current and future americans = Increasing freedom?
In other words, "Special Groups" can refer to non-Sadrists,
Sadrists and former Sadrists?
Well, the distinction between "Sadrist" and "former Sadrist" is
pretty vague, which is why you keep seeing the references to Sadr
when they arrest Iranians and Iranian-backed groups.
http://www.mnf-iraq.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=17030&Itemid=128
"The people of Iraq are standing up to those who refuse to honor
al-Sayyid Muqtada al-Sadr's ceasefire pledge," said Col. Bill
Buckner, MNC-I spokesman. "We will continue to work with local
citizens and Iraqi security forces to identify these criminal
elements and bring them to justice."
Looks like to me, provided the link that you brought to
this, that the economic situation hasn't gotten better in Iraq from
an employment perspective since November 2005.
Well, to believe that you would have assume a better security
situation did not lead to more employment, which seems unlikely.
Every time we clear and hold a neighborhood, all the shops open up
again.
Can you not admit that it is a subjective judgement as to
weather the resulting decreased freedom in this country is
greater/lesser important to total world freedom than the speculated
increased freedom in Iraq.
For instance it is subjective judgement to determine whether the
"do as I say not as I do" methodology(the Talldave method) of
spreading freedom is more or less effective than the lead by
example method of spreading freedom(the non-interventionist
method). Do you not even see this as being a big question....your
rehtoric seems to make the assumption that this determination
doesn't even have to be made.
Given that there are still some libertarians around here it should
come as a surprise that we don't really trust the government to
spread freedom(via a military and corrupt contractors) with our
money as efficiently as individuals, entrepreneurs will spread
freedom (via the lead by example method).
Essentially, you are making the "trust in government" argument. It
is fine if you are a commie and wish to make that argument, but
don't pretend that your a libertarian of any sort.
Gabe, Tall Dave is a Teddy Roosevelt Republican, so it doesn't really matter if you tell him this.
Gabe,
As in past wars, a little less freedom for us, a lot more more for
others.
Anyways, the top 1% of taxpayers pay around half of taxes (about as
much as the bottom 95%), so I'm not too worried about it.
TallDave | April 9, 2008, 2:27pm | #
"Every time we clear and hold a neighborhood, all the shops open up
again."
Sure sometimes it is the orphans and widows reopening the shops,
but they are reopening. You can't expect the survivors to just hide
in their closets and starve. They may lack the accounting or
business experience of their now dead sons and fathers....but of
course they reopen the shops.
talldave, your understanding of the top 1% of taxpayers seems
pretty limited. My family is in the top 1%(for the first time this
year)...however we are nowhere close to the wealthiest one percent.
The Dick Cheney's, David Rockefellers, Bush seniors, Clintons,
Gates, Buffets, Soros, Jamie Dimon's etc...they all have tax free
foundations, non-profit gigs lavish fringe benefits, off the books
income, company cars, condos, savvy accountants, lawyers and actual
political power that aids in avoiding IRS audits.
Even though our family income put us(just barely) in the top 1% of
income for one year our net worth is still firmly in the middle
class....so those taxes are aimed squarely at me...I guess I can
see why your not worried kinda like your not worried about dying in
the war. I guess that you still don't see how your a ridiculous
hippocrite.
"Top 1%" is a liberal canard. It sounds like that would be millionaires, but it really means those making $200,000 or more. Those are small business owners, folks, not CEOs.
I'm not seeing how you come to the conculsion that 1 million dead iraqis = a lot more freedom for iraqi's....mostly I see you and your friends saying that 1 million dead iraqi's = fewer problematic brown people.
Cesar,
Your right as long as your including neo-cons in your definition of
"liberal". Even a cosmotarian like Greenspan uses this rehtorical
trick. You know the type that says socialism has lost the battle.
While not even mentioning the attack on property rights he led as
the head of a comission to double our payroll taxes.
OR Bush talking about his great tax cuts while ignoring that the
new payroll tax cap has increased from 70k to 102k the last few
years.
Top 1%. $364657. 39.38.
I don't weep for their lost freedoms.
I'm not seeing how you come to the conculsion that 1 million
dead iraqis = a lot more freedom for iraqi's....
Are you similarly confused about how millions of dead Europeans led
to more freedom when we invaded Europe?
Also, a million is a bit of an exaggeration, and the imputation of
bloodthirsty racism was uncalled for.
I weep for the lost jobs they could've created, or the things they could've invested in, rather than having it shipped to some corrupt Middle Eastern government.
Gabe liberals use that the most though, though for different
things.
Though all things considered, I'd rather be robbed and have the
money be given to a drifter thats too lazy to get a job than be
robbed and have the money used to blow up foreigners.
"Though all things considered, I'd rather be robbed and have the
money be given to a drifter thats too lazy to get a job than be
robbed and have the money used to blow up foreigners."
I agree Cesar.
Talldave, we could have used that money to pay off debts from grad
school and my wife or I would have been more able to skip work more
days to spend with the kids...spreading love and knowledge...making
better meals or maybe causing fewer health problems for my
wife....so fuck you with your racist, islam killing, fake
republican shit about how taking our money is spreading
freedom.
If you knew anything about WW1 you'd know that those millions of
dead europeans did nothing but fund a bunch morgan, warburg,
rothchild and rockefeller vacation villas and lead to millions more
being killed 20 years later.
Talldave:
"Also, a million is a bit of an exaggeration, and the imputation of
bloodthirsty racism was uncalled for."
your wrong talldave: explanation of death count:
http://www.justforeignpolicy.org/iraq/iraqdeaths.html
I also think the imputation of bloodthirsty racism is called for
after you imply that we are against freedom ignore the killing of 1
million Iraqis then openly claim that you have no moral problem
advocating that Halliburton take money from my children. Hell, if I
saw you taking money from my kid and you told me that it was just
I'd have no moral problem ending your life....possibly a physical
problem, a fear of imprisonment, but no moral problem.
Also, a million is a bit of an exaggeration, and the
imputation of bloodthirsty racism was uncalled for.
He just calls them like he sees them. "Rubble doesn't cause
trouble" -John Derbyshire
TallDave,
Well, to believe that you would have assume a better security
situation did not lead to more employment, which seems
unlikely.
Why would better security necessarily lead to more employment? Mere
security is not sufficient for economic growth, increased
employment, etc. It may be a necessary condition but it isn't a
sufficient one in other words. Which is of course why 1970s Poland
may have been a "secure" place, but it did not see a lot of
economic growth.
Well, the distinction between "Sadrist" and "former Sadrist" is
pretty vague, which is why you keep seeing the references to Sadr
when they arrest Iranians and Iranian-backed groups.
That seems to undermine definitive claims about Sadr being supplied
by the Iranians then.
Anyways, the top 1% of taxpayers pay around half of taxes
(about as much as the bottom 95%), so I'm not too worried about
it.
Which says nothing about the relative tax burden and loss of
freedom by the rest of the population. Indeed, we could see in such
a case a dramatic loss of freedom for the overall population.
Cesar,
Well, that is the "oppurtunity cost" of the war.
I am really sick of hearing about--and from--this fucker. Pavlovian slobbering over the military is just as embarrassing as any other kind.
"""Are you similarly confused about how millions of dead
Europeans led to more freedom when we invaded Europe?"""
By that standard, we could have given Europe the most freedom
possible by killing them all.
"""The Iraqi Army gets a little stronger every month, and the
militias and AQ get a little weaker."""
Their legs get stronger from running away. But you're missing the
bigger reality. The security gains in some of the worst parts are
not attributed to the Iraqi Army, but the Awakening militias.
Bottom line, militias are still in control, if the Awakening groups
decide to go against the Iraqi army, the Iraqi army will get their
assess handed to them.
Sure things are better this year (so far) than last year. That's
not much success. Let me know when things are better than when
Saddam ruled. Wasn't that the point of the whole ordeal? To make
life better than under Saddams rule.
Episiarch | April 9, 2008, 8:34am | #
More like six more years.
It seems the Democrats are incapable of doing anything against
Bush's wishes even with Congressional majorities. Way to fulfill a
"mandate".
As a practical matter, it is impossible for a party in Congress
with less than a veto-proof majority in both houses, and not even a
filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, to stop an existing war
that started before they took power if the President is willing to
go to the mat to continue it, which Bush is. There are a wide
variety of legal and semi-legal means Bush can use to continue the
war, even if Congress out and out didn't fund it. For example, Bush
would veto any Defense budget that didn't contain Iraq war funding.
Which would result as a partial government shut down of the
entire armed forces. Well, except for an emergency or
national security spending, which is all of the Defense budget.
That funding would continue under the previous year's budget until
Bush signs a bill, under current law. Any attempt to change that
law would also be vetoed.
The way to stop the war is to elect an anti-war President, that is,
Obama (or even Clinton, although she's going to lose the nomination
so who cares).
TallDave: Why is American freedom in the form of wasted tax dollars and people's lives less important than Iraqi freedom?
TallDave | April 9, 2008, 1:02pm | #
...The Iraqi gov't has had some difficulty spending the money
because transparency and accountability is such a new concept for
Iraq...
Such a responsible government; where can we get one like that?
your wrong talldave: explanation of death count:
The generally accepted number is tens of thousands, and most of
them were killed by terrorists, not U.S. forces.
"""Are you similarly confused about how millions of dead
Europeans led to more freedom when we invaded Europe?""" By that
standard, we could have given Europe the most freedom possible by
killing them all.
No, the point of invading Europe was to free it, not to kill
Europeans. It's a tragic cost, not a goal.
Their legs get stronger from running away.
They did not run away. Sadr's people did. The IA still patrols the
streets of Basra while the Sadrists were ordered indoors.
Why would better security necessarily lead to more
employment?
Again, every time we clear an area all the shops and businesses
open up again. It happens.
Let me know when things are better than when Saddam
ruled.
They are, and have been for some time. Under Saddam things were
far, far worse. An average of 7,000 people a month died, there was
half as much electricity, GDP per capita was half what it is now,
no elections, no free press, no right of assembly, no free
speech... I could go on.
TallDave: Why is American freedom in the form of wasted tax
dollars and people's lives less important than Iraqi
freedom?
One could ask the same of Europe, or South Korea. If you think the
horrors of Auschwitz, Halabja, and Pyongyang are someone else's
problem and not our business, you might well view it all as a
waste.
That seems to undermine definitive claims about Sadr being
supplied by the Iranians then.
Sure, it's not cut-and-dried, but there's a definite proximity
there. Sadr will disavow groups that publicly attack IA/US forces,
but they always seem to be Sadrists, and they seem to hide indoors
when he tells them to, as happened in Basra.
Quoth USA today:
That intra-Shiite competition is likely to continue - sometimes
violently - regardless of whether the Iraqi government and its U.S.
backers force al-Sadr to disband his Mahdi Army militia or not. In
military parlance, the term "special groups" refers to presumed
breakaway Mahdi factions whose main sponsor is Iran.
...
The role of the "special groups" remains unclear. U.S. officials
say they are breakaway factions of the Mahdi Army that no longer
take orders from al-Sadr.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/iraq/2008-04-10-iraq-strategy_N.htm?csp=34
so fuck you with your racist, islam killing, fake republican
shit about how taking our money is spreading freedom.
I don't know where anyone gets the idea we can't discuss Iraq
reasonably.
Of course, that's why I get for trying to talk reasonably with a Troofer. Sigh.
""""""Are you similarly confused about how millions of dead
Europeans led to more freedom when we invaded Europe?""" By that
standard, we could have given Europe the most freedom possible by
killing them all.
No, the point of invading Europe was to free it, not to kill
Europeans. It's a tragic cost, not a goal."""
That's not what you said. You equated the level of death directly
to the level of freedom.
But you do hit a vaild point. The purpose of invading Europe was to
free, it wasn't about providing Europe with security. Iraq is free
now. We should let the Iraqis handle their own counrty. If they
can't, that's their problem that they need to apply their resouces
to solve.
We do not have to shoulder their problems as if they are our
own.
To apply Gen Powell's Pottery Barn analogy. You break it, you fix
it. Sure we broke a few things, but we don't want to admit that
it's the Pottery Barn owner's kids are totally trashing their own
store, and sending us the bill.
"""They did not run away. Sadr's people did. The IA still
patrols the streets of Basra while the Sadrists were ordered
indoors.""
In your dreams.
The contrary was widely reported.
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