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A Huckabee-Paul Deal in West Virginia
I just spoke with a source inside the West Virginia Paul campaign and got some insight into the decision to push their votes to Huckabee. "There are two dynamics in West Virginia," the source said, "the national dynamic and the local dynamic. The local dynamic is frustration with a GOP establishment that doesn't believe in freedom and liberty but mouths support for those ideals in order to win elections." This, he explained, was the common cause between compassionate conservative Huckabee supporters and libertarian Paul supporters.
Both Paul supporters and Huckabee supporters were angry at a convention process that seemed to be rigged for Romney. So after the first balloting, when they were knocked out of the running, Paul delegates met in a room to hear arguments for supporting one of the remaining candidates. Huckabee's supporters offered a deal: If Huckabee won the convention, three members of his delegate slate would resign. Responsibility for replacing those delegates goes not to the state party or national party but to the winner of the convention. Thus, Huckabee's campaign would replace the three delegates with three Ron Paul delegates.
"This was a gentlemen's agreement," my source said. "We're going to trust but verify."
The Paul campaign is confident enough in the deal to go live with a press release on it.
|2.5.08 @ 5:01PM|#
If you believe the Romney people, Huckabe is only staying in the race to divide the vote and give McCain the nomination. By giving Huckabee West Virginia, Paul supporters have now given Huckabe more momentum and more of an excuse to stay in the race. Isn't this in effect a McCain Paul deal?
Fluffy|2.5.08 @ 5:03PM|#
The best possible matchup for a Paul 3rd party run is McCain -
Hillary.
I don't think the Paul campaign is thinking that many steps ahead,
though. I think they wanted some delegates, and wanted to keep
Huckabee in the race, and a deal that helped do both of those was
good enough for them.
Fluffy|2.5.08 @ 5:07PM|#
Huckabee on Romney:
"I thought he was saying yesterday, 'No whining.' So is it no
whining or whining? He can't even keep a straight answer on the
'whining or no whining' question," Huckabee said.
I don't like Huckabee, but that's a heckuva smackdown on the
Mittster. Got a LOL out of me.
Vermont Gun Owner|2.5.08 @ 5:10PM|#
Maybe after the last debate, where Huckabee started get ignored again, there will be more of this. Working together, Huckabee and Paul could each grab a lot more delegates than separately. This allows them both to continue on, and possibly rise to compete with the two candidates the media has narrowed the race down to. At this point, Huck's got to hope for a brokered convention too.
GILMORE|2.5.08 @ 5:12PM|#
"There are two dynamics in West Virginia," the source
said...
One = Widespread retardation from living on top of
constantly-burning underground coal fires
Two = Incest; see #1 re: retardation
I keed, I keed. Please dont shoot me if you're WV. Yes, i have a
pretty mouth, i know.
|2.5.08 @ 5:13PM|#
The foreign papers see it right:
Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee has had a surprise win in
the first contest to report results on Super Tuesday - the West
Virginia convention, where participants vote for their preferred
candidate in an open meeting.
Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney won the first round of
voting with 47 per cent of the vote - less than the absolute
majority required.
But in a shock second vote, Mr Romney was ambushed by John McCain
supporters who transferred their votes to Mr Huckabee, to deliver
him a victory and 18 delegates.
The result indicates that there may be a future alliance between
the Huckabee and McCain camps as the voting unfolds within the
Republican Party.
The West Virginia convention is a relatively small race, but
indicates that Mr Romney is still competitive in conservative
areas.
The polls indicate that Senator John McCain will do well in the
north eastern states which will begin reporting about noon
Australian time.
Episiarch|2.5.08 @ 5:16PM|#
I wonder if this will be done across all the Super Tuesday
States where it can have an effect. Or is WV the only one with a
system that allows this?
This could get interesting. VERY interesting.
|2.5.08 @ 5:16PM|#
Hey fluffy, how many time does Ron Paul has to say it? He's not running third party. We want the GOP normination and kick out the NeoCons. We want to take over the party. That's why there is a HUGE push for delgates.
Fluffy|2.5.08 @ 5:19PM|#
If by May 1 it's clear that the general election will be Hillary
- McCain, Steven, we'll see if Paul continues to "have no interest"
in going independent, or showing up in Denver.
The Paul campaign is not signing up precinct captains nationwide in
order to stay in the Republican race a few more weeks and get
|2.5.08 @ 5:21PM|#
Fluffy,
You are pissing in the wind. I think Paul is kind of a nut, but he
is basically a good person and he is not a liar. He is not going to
run as a third party. I really think Paul is a man of his word. He
is not lying.
Rhoda II|2.5.08 @ 5:22PM|#
"Both Paul supporters and Huckabee supporters were angry at a convention process that seemed to be rigged for Romney. So after the first balloting..." ...they rigged it for McCain.
Fluffy|2.5.08 @ 5:25PM|#
You're right, he's not.
He's always answered that he has no interest in running 3rd
party.
That answer describes a situation which can change. It's not "I
absolutely will not run under any circumstances."
Episiarch -
I tried to end that sentence by saying that Paul would "get less
than 100 delegates". But I tried to use the less than symbol and I
guess you can't do that because it looks like an HTML tag. I
probably have opened some horrible tag on this thread that someone
will eventually close.
|2.5.08 @ 5:29PM|#
Fluffy,
Why "Hillary-McCain" and not "Hillary-Romney?"
There are a lot more indie voters who might vote McCain than
Mittens.
|2.5.08 @ 5:30PM|#
Huckabee's just running for the second spot on a McCain-Huckabee ticket, which really has to be the absolute worst outcome for libertarians. The Paul supporters just sold their souls for some venal desire to get at least some delegates at the national convention. Pathetic.
|2.5.08 @ 5:32PM|#
You know, Huckabee's answer in the last debate - about how legislators get to concentrate on one area of interest, whereas governors like himself have to be competent in dealing with a broad range of issues - looks an awful lot like a reason for McCain to choose a governor for his running mate.
Bingo|2.5.08 @ 5:34PM|#
Fluffy: I don't know about that matchup. If Hillary gets the nomination she's going to drum up the "anyone but Hillary" GOP base. They won't vote for a third party if they feel a need to stop her.
Fluffy|2.5.08 @ 5:35PM|#
Joe -
I think McCain will not get the GOP base to turn out.
Hillary - McCain gives you two candidates deeply distrusted by
their party's base[s].
lulu|2.5.08 @ 5:36PM|#
Thomas Jefferson
"'I indulge a single hope only, that the choice of President may
fall on one who will be a friend of peace, of economy, of the
republican principles of our Constitution, and of the salutary
distribution of powers made by that between the general and the
local governments.'"
THERE IS ONLY ONE HOPE: RON PAUL!
|2.5.08 @ 5:38PM|#
Why "Hillary-McCain" and not "Hillary-Romney?"
I think it has something to do with the republican base really not
wanting to vote for McCain.
Whereas Mittens is lying and pretending like he is the person that
Republicans like to vote for (not that that will stick either).
|2.5.08 @ 5:42PM|#
I get it, Fluffy.
And since Paul is a right-libertarian, "the disgruntled Republican
base" is a target-rich environment for him, even more than the sort
of independents who'd vote for McNasty.
|2.5.08 @ 5:44PM|#
Tom,
McCain isn't going to win the general election anyway, so how are
we "selling our souls?" Huckabee staying in the race and
conservatives continuing the jihad against McCain till summer is
the only scenario which will lead to the brokered convention Paul
wants. Is that the most likely scenario to unfold? Probably not.
But that's the position you find yourself in when you back a little
known Congressman from Texas with an unpopular political
philosophy. We don't have the luxury of picking and choosing
between wonderful options. We take what we can get. WV was a nice
win. 10% of the vote was parlayed in to 17% of the delegates in a
winner take all state.
Roger Maltz|2.5.08 @ 5:44PM|#
joe: Would you care to elaborate on this target-rich environment thought for me? I'm not getting the point. Thanks.
Fluffy|2.5.08 @ 5:45PM|#
Right, Joe.
Personally, for example, I find Paul's immigration stance
objectionable - but it would help him as a 3P if McCain was the
nominee. Maybe he could finally make those pandering immigration
ads he taped pay off.
McCain lacks credibility on tax cutting as well.
The reasons I prefer Paul to McCain aren't the same reasons some
parts of the GOP base would - but a vote is a vote.
|2.5.08 @ 5:46PM|#
and the alternative is better? No delegates? Paul was eliminated after the first ballot. Turning that defeat into a 3 delegate pick-up is fucking brilliant.
|2.5.08 @ 5:46PM|#
Gee, I wonder what Ron Paul could get just by threatening to run Independent? Hans Hermann Hoppe, head of the Federal Reserve? Lew Rockwell, head of Equal Opportunity Employment Commission?
svf|2.5.08 @ 5:47PM|#
(that was in response to "The Paul supporters just sold their souls for some venal desire to get at least some delegates at the national convention. Pathetic." Used bad brackets...)
Fluffy|2.5.08 @ 5:48PM|#
When will it be time to make McCain's health an issue? I just
saw a clip of him on TV and he can barely walk across a room.
If McCain - Huckabee is the ticket, it's basically asking people to
vote for Huckabee to be President in 2010.
|2.5.08 @ 5:49PM|#
It's becoming clearer to the Huckabee folks that the media hyped his campaign and the true support wasn't there. He'll ride on the money and boots on the ground of the Paul campaign.
|2.5.08 @ 5:53PM|#
Roger Maltz,
The areas where McCain has violated Republican principles tend to
be areas where Ron Paul would be closer to them, such as his
support for a smaller tax cut package in 2001, McCain-Feingold, his
pragmatism of judicial picks, and his support for government
actions to restrain global warming. McCain would certainly not lose
Republicans for being insufficiently warlike or unwilling to
intrude on civil liberties for the sake of security.
So the sort of Republican who would be turned off by McCain might
find Paul amendable.
stephen the goldberger|2.5.08 @ 5:57PM|#
Paul won't run for 3rd party, I think he's exhausted enough from this primary race. Not only that, to run Third Party he'd have to give up the Republican Party Tag in congress and the power that comes with it.
Voices of Freedom|2.5.08 @ 6:03PM|#
Betcha 10 bucks that I can single handedly hector Paul into running for the big L nomination. He's a sucker for liberty and won't abandon us to a Clinton McCain "contest".
stephen the goldberger|2.5.08 @ 6:04PM|#
Hey so Yahoo has Paul as winning CO, is that
right?
No i believe you're looking at the YAHOO BUZZ poll
Fluffy|2.5.08 @ 6:04PM|#
Stephen -
The man is 72. How many more terms as a Congressman does he really
have?
I just think the Rockwellites are whispering "Run, Ron, Run" in his
ear every night. If nothing else it continues to build the mailing
list, right?
dodsworth|2.5.08 @ 6:04PM|#
Why would Paul have to give the Republican party tag? It is true that the pubbies in Congress might expel him from the party conference (which is a minority anyway) but he could still run, and win, in the primary as a Republican. It has happened before.
|2.5.08 @ 6:05PM|#
Think about it like this, if Huckabee ends up dropping from the race, who do you think he'll give his delegates too? Ron Paul, that's who. So Ron Paul, by making this deal, could end up with all 18 delegates at a later date. Huckabee is broke and will probably drop out later this week. Its all about the delegates. Ron Paul has been in the game long enough to know how to work the system to his benefit. He is playing chess while the others are playing tic-tac-toe. The pieces are being positioned.
|2.5.08 @ 6:09PM|#
No way Huckabee gives his delegates to Ron Paul (except for the ones agreed to today). They're going to McCain, bank on it.
|2.5.08 @ 6:09PM|#
So what are McCain supporters going to say when he announces Lieberman as his VP? I think you'll be hearing some serious uproar and a push by "big name conservatives" to vote independent.
|2.5.08 @ 6:13PM|#
No i believe you're looking at the YAHOO BUZZ
poll
Goddammit!
If these fucking hippies actually got out and voted and caucased,
instead of just jamming internet polling and spelling love
backwards.
|2.5.08 @ 6:20PM|#
Man, you Paul supporters have really drunk the Kool-Aid. Unless Romney pulls a rabbit out out of his hat, we're looking at a McCain-Huckabee ticket, and all you Ron Paul supporters who are crowing about what a great coup Paul pulled off in WV are going to be left sucking the hind teat.
Roger Maltz|2.5.08 @ 6:21PM|#
What's that, Eric Rittberg? Your man the losertarian Romney couldn't even win West Virginia? All we've been hearing from you for the past week is how Romney is going to clean house and he can't even get the same number of delegates as Ron Paul? I hear Steve Kubby is looking for a campaign travel captain. Are you up to the task??
Roger Maltz|2.5.08 @ 6:22PM|#
Tom: Unless Romney pulls a rabbit out out of his hat, we're
looking at a McCain-Huckabee ticket
What's your point?
Sam Grove|2.5.08 @ 6:25PM|#
This is the San Jose Mercury News recommendation to Republican
voters:
We disagree with all of the Republican candidates on their
solutions - or lack thereof - on critical problems facing the
nation and global economy. We specifically disagree with McCain on
many issues, starting with the war in Iraq. But he believes in the
law and has crossed party lines to craft bipartisan solutions on
key issues including immigration reform.
The paper is showing strong support for Obama.
The question is: If they really want Obama, why are they pushing
McCain as the Republican nominee?
Are they asking Republicans to put their strongest candidate
against the Democratic nominee?
Or do they see someone they can knock off after the primaries?
Someone Who Doesn\'t Want to L|2.5.08 @ 6:30PM|#
Tom:
Unless Romney pulls a rabbit out out of his hat, we're looking at a McCain-Huckabee ticket, and all you Ron Paul supporters who are crowing about what a great coup Paul pulled off in WV are going to be left sucking the hind teat.
As someone who doesn't even vote, I may be speaking out of turn
here, but I think most Reason readers don't necessarily consider
themselves Republicans. Most of those who are voting for Paul are
only voting Republican because of his presence. Their support for
him, I think, is not transferable to the lesser of evils in the
rest of the field, at which point they'd go back to the Libertarian
party or sit this one out.
Like I said, I'm not voting so I may be off in my interpretation.
However, I think most here who are supporting Paul are of this
type. "Republican once" rather than "Republican always".
|2.5.08 @ 6:30PM|#
Sam Grove,
I've always wondered if any Republicans pay attention to blatantly
Dem-favoring newspaper's endorsements (and vice versa). Voting
based on such a recommendation would be like a football coach
letting the opposing team call his plays.
|2.5.08 @ 6:38PM|#
Not losing his job dude:
I have generally voted Republican, but if it is McCain or Romney vs
Obama, I'll probably vote 3rd party. Might vote Obama, don't know
if I can bring myself to vote for a D.
I really don't like those two RINO's though.
If it is Hillary vs McCain or Romney, I don't know. I probably will
still vote 3rd party, depends. It is hard not to vote against
Hillary.
I am personally hoping that McCain beats Romney, just because of
Dondero.
Icing on the cake would be if Huckabee also beats Romney.
Too good to be true would be if Paul beats Romney.
I also want Romney to lose because I can't stand for someone that
fake to actually get that close to winning. How can people support
him?
|2.5.08 @ 6:40PM|#
This is great, it makes up for my Pats losing the Super Bowl to
see Mitt unable to ram himself down the throats of the even the
usually easily led GOP primary voters...Glorious...
I don't have any Huckabee hate at all (everyone here knows I'm not
gonna hate on him for raising taxes to support needed
infrastructure in one of the most assbackwards states in the
union). Sure, his religion is soooo William Jennings Bryan, but at
least he's consistent (the Bible does have all that "care about the
poor" stuff beside the "stone the adulterers and gays"
stuff).
It's evident that all the other GOP candidates, though they may
range far arpart on issues and ideology, cannot stand Mitt Romney
as a person. I think they just see what's evident imo....
Sam Grove|2.5.08 @ 6:41PM|#
Sam, please, like Obama can't knock off the Romney
Robot.
No doubt, but is the same true for Hillary?
|2.5.08 @ 6:42PM|#
The only whining I've heard is from Hannity about "backroom
deals" and Rush about "collusion."
Give me a break. As if McCain was going to tell his delegates to
vote for whomever they wanted, when he had a chance to keep Romney
from winning a state. Anyone running for President and trying to
win would have done the same thing.
I'm not sure throwing in with Huckabee was the best move for the
Paul campaign, but if they got delegates out of it, I guess that
justifies it. From the numbers I've seen though, more Paul
delegates voted for Romney than for Huckabee in the second round,
although enough did vote for Tax Hike Mike to give him the win.
|2.5.08 @ 6:44PM|#
This politics at its finest. The way it really works behind closed doors. Give a little to get a little. Besides, the party establishment hates Paul and Huckabee. I have no problem making common cause to fight the authorities who wish to control the process, limit the choices to one or two establishment men, and pick the party candidate for us. Besides, if Romney and McCain can be locked out of a win, then Ron Paul wins along with Huckabee. I know the MSM will ignore the fact that Ron Paul was the actual kingmaker in WV, but it is the delegates that matter. Moreover, I salute the Huckabee campaign being smart enough to beat Romney to the punch. I am sure the Romney campaign was so arrogant it never occurred to them that they might have to approach the Ron Paul supporters and offer a deal. If RP does not win or is not the leader in delegates, then a brokered convention makes the delegates of Huckabee, Paul, and the other "non-leaders" more valuable than their actual numbers. It is the last drop of water that makes the cup overflow.
|2.5.08 @ 6:45PM|#
I doubt McCain picks Huckabee...I like the affable guy, but some
of his statements on record are waaaay bizarre and McCain can find
someone just as conservative that is less lightning...
I'm open to the idea that Huck is helping torpedo the Mitternator
(only human in appearance, principles subject to programming for
current mission). And well deserved. Mitt opened up early on
Huckabee with his millions in attack ads, and honestly tried to
question Huckabee's conservative christian bona fides....Read that
last part again. That's Romney for you, he's suddenly the "real
christian conservative" compared to Mike "Elmer Gantry"
Huckabee...Jesus christ, Joseph Smith that man has no shame...
|2.5.08 @ 6:48PM|#
Question: What would Mitt Romney NOT do that would get him elected? Would he get on all fours and bark like a dog if it meant the nomination? Is their anything that would make his dormant dignity poke it's confused little head up and say no?
Someone Who Doesn\'t Want to L|2.5.08 @ 6:54PM|#
MNG,
I'm unsure that Huckabee is actually doing damage to Romney. From
this, it looks more like Huckabee supporters would go to McCain
as a second choice.
|2.5.08 @ 7:58PM|#
I know the MSM will ignore the fact that Ron Paul was the
actual kingmaker in WV, but it is the delegates that
matter.
Yes, the media will ignore Ron Paul, unfortunately. Just as many
Ron Paul supporters tend to ignore that delegates matter and
concentrate on fundraising totals. Libertarianism has always done
well in getting a fairly large number of well-off but not
tremendously rich people to give money in small amounts to
campaigns (check out how Goldwater got his money when he ran for
President), but it hasn't always translated into votes.
I just wish there were a better candidate than Paul. Gary Johnson,
for example.
JB|2.5.08 @ 8:04PM|#
In his interview with Tim Russert on "Meet the Press", RP didn't
completely rule out an independent run:
http://thirdpartywatch.com/2007/12/23/ron-paul-on-meet-the-press-the-third-party-angle/
Paulistinian Victor|2.5.08 @ 8:14PM|#
Ward 2 Precinct 1
up here on the Minnesota tundra
it's a BPOU (basic political organization unit) in party
jargon
next up, the county convention
then the regional
then the state
as they say in prison:
"we're in the car"
(two delegates, two alternates)
Dave|2.6.08 @ 5:56AM|#
Why does Ron Paul act surprised when he is asked about the 9/11 conspiracy nuts even though it has been explained to him in multiple interviews (and even during one of the debates) that they support him? For me that is the one question mark that haunts his credibility. I'm skeptic of the other candidates too and I Huckabee really comes off dishonest (he is still 3rd in delegate count and he tries to spin it that he is one of the two leaders!!). Thank you all for caring about the country.
|2.6.08 @ 10:06AM|#
I doubt McCain picks Huckabee...I like the affable guy, but
some of his statements on record are waaaay bizarre and McCain can
find someone just as conservative that is less
lightning...
No way McCain picks Huckabee. The Governor of Florida has the VP
slot sewn up. He went for McCain before the primary, McCain won,
he's popular and can help deliver a major battleground state. Case
closed.
Tess|2.6.08 @ 10:58AM|#
I think a Paul/McCain ticket would be great. Let Paul work on a humble foreign policy, cutting the fat and spending in our government, creating a sound monetary system, and returning our country back to our Constitutional roots. Then let McCain go finish the job, and take out Bin Laden and his thugs, and return all our troops home, and secure our borders, and let McCain deal with all the illegal immigrants with a humane deportation process, and no Amnesty that he is saying he supports now. Wishful thinking on my part, but it's nice to pretend that we could have a sane country again.
Montani Semper Liberi|2.6.08 @ 1:41PM|#
This article and thread interested me until people started
cutting down West Virginians. As I told a coworker from California
once (who was making "kissing cousin" jokes about WV and KY), it's
quite illegal to marry a first cousin in either West Virginia or
Kentucky, but IS LEGAL IN California, Washington DC, Colorado . .
.
And "squeal like a pig" comes from a Hollyweird movie with a
setting in Georgia.
You people need to get out more. Such comments would leave one to
believe you are not very educated.
Sincerely,
A Ron Paul supporter with 200 years of western VA/West Virginia
roots and an IQ of 124.
Now how is that for a stereotype?
|2.6.08 @ 3:19PM|#
I prefer to drive through WV on the way to FL as opposed to dealing with the Baltimore/DC traffic. Beautiful and the people are always nice. Bad senators though. Bad politics in general there. Insurance law and courts in WV suck. Doesn't mean the people are inbred, just sue happy like most of the country.
|2.6.08 @ 7:23PM|#
For anyone calling for a 3rd party run, hold your horses.
http://youdecide08.foxnews.com/2008/02/02/national-delegate-count-tally/
This was updated this morning at 6:15 AM
Republican Delegates (1,191 needed to win nomination)
Candidate Delegates
Mike Huckabee 190
John McCain 613
Ron Paul 14
Mitt Romney 269
Total 1,086
1,191 - 613 = 578 delegates short
McCain is NOT going to pick up 578 delegates any time soon.
Super Tuesday was his best shot at winning the nomination, and he
didn't even come close.
How is McCain going to afford to keep his campaign functioning? He
has no more money, and has no conservative base support.
So what states are left that are rich in delegates?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080124/ap_on_el_pr/super_tuesday_later_states
Feb. 12: 116 Republican delegates, including 63 in Virginia and 37
in Maryland.
March 4: 256 Republican, including 137 in Texas and 85 in
Ohio.
May 6: 96 Republican, including 69 in North Carolina.
_____________________
Let's do the math….
McCain has 613 delegates + states I think he will win
Maryland 37
Ohio 85
613 + 37 + 85 = 735
Let's say McCain takes Texas and Virginia…
735 + 137 + 63 = 935
McCain is still 256 delegates short, and this delegate count is
assuming these states are winner take all, but some are not. Even
if McCain picks up North Carolina, he will still be 187
votes.
We are going to a brokered convention.
There is no possible way for John McCain to pick up the 1,191
necessary delegates to secure the GOP nomination.
Ron Paul will speak to the nation in St. Paul, MN.
He will have a national platform to introduce himself to
America.
The old media cannot rig his speech. Ron Paul will use this
national stage to launch the revolution into the stratosphere and
take back the Republican Party.
The revolution has won a MAJOR victory.
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