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Iowa Caucus Prediction Thread (and Liveblogging)
I've got a bunch of friends in Iowa reporting out the race, and the storylines I've heard from them all are:
- Hillary Clinton has the smartest people in the Democratic
primary working for her, and if it wasn't for them she'd already be
out of this.
- Ron Paul's organization is tight and energetic, and they're
turning out all their caucusgoers.
- Fred Thompson's campaign events have been small and
sluggish.
- Barack Obama headed off an Edwards surge as some of the
second-tier candidates told their supporters to back him as their
second choices. (In the Democratic race, if your candidate doesn't
get 15 percent of the room you caucus for someone else.)
- Democratic excitement is palpable. Republican excitement is
non-existent.
Based on that, my incredibly safe predictions:
Democrats (final votes, including second choices)
Barack Obama 32
John Edwards 30
Hillary Clinton 27
Joe Biden 5
Bill Richardson 4
The others 2
Republicans
Mitt Romney 31
Mike Huckabee 29
Ron Paul 13
John McCain 11
Fred Thompson 9
Rudy Giuliani 5
The others 4
Of course, no one is watching all the candidates. It's all about the storylines for Obama, Clinton, Romney, Huckabee, and McCain. The only way Paul breaks into the headlines is if he beats the allegedly surging McCain and Thompson, although a McCain loss would be brushed off and a Thompson loss portrayed as the end of his campaign. (Reporters seem to be craving a McCain win in New Hampshire, for the amazing comeback story as much as anything.)
Post your predictions or gossip in the comments. I'll be at Murphy's Taproom in Manchester watching the caucues with a very optimistic Paul crowd, and will be liveblogging from there.
UPDATE: Liveblogging, commence!
8:30: Nestled in at the bar and talking to Paulites who are restlessly catching CNN harp on the Democratic race. They liked an "entrance poll" that showed Hillary up: "She's the easiest to beat."
8:32: This must be the only Republican party that's tuned in to CNN and not Fox News. I'm listening more to the exit poll questions than the miniscule precinct results. Huge female turnout sounds good for Clinton while the fact that voters prioritized "change" over "experience" sounds good for Obama... and the low percentage of independent voters sounds bad for Obama. I'm not hearing as much about the GOP...
8:38: A lot of derision here at the way CNN is leaving a big white pie piece in the chart where the Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, and Duncan Hunter vote should be.
8:48: More data, finally, and Paul's at 10 percent: A lot of relieved cheers at this party. But CNN is still showing that blank piece. As to the Democrats, Kos reports that the early counties are rural John Edwards counties, which bodes really poorly for him -- he's in a dead heat as the Clinton and Obama counties start to come in.
8:50: From the party: "We can come in eleventy-millionth place as long as we beat Giuliani!" They're screaming and clapping whenever a county result shows Paul clobbering Rudy.
8:56: CNN projects a Huckabee victory. There are some quiet boos and yells of "Huuuckster!"
9:04: There's gloating about Romney's defeat ("All those millions! His poor kids!") and a few cheers when Obama pulls ahead of Hillary and Edwards. I ask a "hard-right Republican" named Pete why he cheered. "I just want the crime family out of there," he says, referring to the Clintons. "Obama's a hard lefty but as long as we don't have the Clintons running we can have a battle of ideas. We can talk about the Constitution."
9:20: If the Democratic results keep up - Clinton literally tied with Edwards but only margin-of-error tied with Obama - it doesn't exactly look like a three way tie. It looks like a clear Obama win.
9:27: And NBC News calls for Obama. This is better for him than it is for Huckabee - Hillary and Edwards are so bunched up he can declare his victory before they can claim second place.
9:36: I'm uncomfortable predicting too much when the GOP race for third is so close, but I think McCain has little to worry about even if he slips behind Ron Paul. Romney is utterly humiliated: I'm going to have to check out one of his New Hampshire events to see how many advance men it takes to prop up his corpse. This is the expectation game. It doesn't matter that Romney doubled McCain's vote, it mattered that McCain was able to strut onstage and make fun of his effort to "buy the election."
9:39: People who won't be vice president: Tom Vilsack, the former governor of Iowa whose mighty operation was enough to win the Democratic frontrunner third place. Also Ted Strickland, the governor of Ohio who trashed the Iowa caucuses to a reporter merely days ago. People who might be: Bill Richardson and Joe Biden, for handing their votes to Obama. (So did Kucinich but his nomination as VP is less likely, let's say.)
9:46: Huge catcalls for Giuliani when he arrives on CNN (his reward for losing to Ron Paul?): A voice behind me blares "Fuck you, fucker!" And there's some grumbling about how Wolf Blitzer referred to Paul's 7,800 votes as "seven thousand" and Giuliani's 2,700 as "almost three thousand."
9:55: The Paul party is sort of starting to disperse. A key hope of the volunteers is dying tonight: The hope that there were thousands of voters who the polls were missing but would turn out for Paul. He's only winning as many votes as the polls suggested he would. So he's set to keep scoring high single digits or low double digits unless something incredible happens - maybe Newt Gingrich enters the race, quits, and endorses Paul on the way out.
9:58: Just as I typed that I joined a conversation on Paul's percentage, already in progress. "I was hoping for 15, 17 percent" said a Pittsburgh volunteer named Bill. Frank, a campaign worker who came here with Operation Live Free or Die, is more optimistic: "That much of the Republican vote, that's Perot territory." Dun-dun-dun-dunnnnn.
10:04: I'm by no means the first person to say this, but here's the key difference between the parties tonight. Half of Democrats look at this picture and feel neutral; half of them look at it and feel elated. Half of Republicans look at his picture and feel worried; one-quarter feel enraged; one-quarter are happy, but it's that bitter, Kurt Russell dropping the truck on the bad guy in Breakdown kind of happy. If they weren't Christians they'd be flipping the bird.
10:24: No surprise, John Edwards tried to steal some Obama thunder by proclaiming "a victory over the status quo." He cheers up the crowd by telling stories of poor people who have it worse then them.
10:30: Laughs, jeers and catcalls when Hillary Clinton zooms onto the screen to concede. One Paulite grabs a Hillary sign and jumps up and down in front of the TV: "Hillary! Hillary! She's the easiest to beat!" The room picks it up. "Ron Paul can beat her!" "Ron Paul can beat anybody!" There's a whole lot of joy (and some pointing) at the sad Bill Clinton next to Hillary... when's the last time he had to stand on a concession stage?
10:33: Did Clinton promise to leave no child behind?
10:41: Like Stephen Spruiell reported today, the lefty netroots have made a long, curious march away from Barack Obama to John Edwards. There was plenty of enthusiasm for Obama in late 2006 and early 2007, it tempered over the course of the year, and in the last weeks Paul Krugman has led a pile-on of Obama for (among other things) not covering everyone in his health care plan, attacking trial lawyers, and arguing that Gore and Kerry had been too divisive. But since Edwards has narrowly moved past Hillary in Iowa I don't think there'll be a rush back to Obama. Edwards won his biggest-ever margin in the Daily Kos straw poll yesterday.
Ali|1.3.08 @ 7:04PM|#
Mitt Romney 31
Mike Huckabee 29
Ron Paul 13
Agreed, except Paul will be slightly higher than 13 (anxious,
fingers crossed)
Bingo|1.3.08 @ 7:05PM|#
Which one of the talking heads is least annoying? It's been a while since I've seen cable news and Chris Mathews seems like a pompous blowhard
Ali|1.3.08 @ 7:06PM|#
CNN has been sucking up to Paul. Even Michelle Malkin was nice to him on her blog. Seriously. Time of reckoning.
|1.3.08 @ 7:07PM|#
The real winner of the Iowa caucus is the television networks. This is primetime!!!
|1.3.08 @ 7:11PM|#
Da Bears: 72%
Mitt Romney: 9%
John McCain: 8%
Ron Paul: 5%
Mike Huckabee: 5%
Rudy Guiliani: 2%
But who will the other candidates tell their supporters to caucus
with if they don't get 15%?
Who, I ask you?
|1.3.08 @ 7:14PM|#
A third place finish for Paul would be pretty amazing.
Its death for Huckabee if he doesn't win Iowa, same for Edwards.
Edwards is done even if theres basically a three-way tie.
Hillary Clinton is good no matter what happens, unless she finishes
in fourth or lower. Which just isn't happening.
|1.3.08 @ 7:15PM|#
Joe, that question reminds me of the traditional story where there's an election for group president or some such, and no one's allowed to vote for himself. Everyone wants to be elected, so they don't want to strengthen their rivals' hands, and so vote for someone who couldn't possibly win. But everyone else does the same thing, so the least popular guy wins...
|1.3.08 @ 7:16PM|#
I think that Ron Paul could take second, since a larger
proportion of his supporters will actually show up.
-jcr
|1.3.08 @ 7:16PM|#
But who will the other candidates tell their supporters to
caucus with if they don't get 15%?
joe, IIRC, only the Democrats have this braindead rule that less
than 15% forces you to vote for someone else.
|1.3.08 @ 7:16PM|#
Bingo,
He's the most bipartisanly centristic example of centrist
bipartisanship from the center, and not from the extremes, ever to
centristically...
aw, screw it. He's rich and he seems like the sort of person who
would throw good cocktail hours and invite the powerful people from
both parties.
Bingo|1.3.08 @ 7:18PM|#
jcr: That's a very real possibility. Especially if enthusiasm for the GOP is as low as Dave says it is.
Fluffy|1.3.08 @ 7:20PM|#
Dear Duncan Hunter:
Please find a way to beat Rudy Giuliani. I will share Dondero's
sweet, sweet tears with you if you do.
That is all.
Fluffy
|1.3.08 @ 7:23PM|#
Cesar,
I disagree. If Huckabee can keep himself in the top tier, he could
clean up in the South.
And I think the only outcome that would matter among the Democrats
would be somebody coming in a distant, rather than close,
third.
NP|1.3.08 @ 7:25PM|#
The winner of the Iowa Caucuses will be...
The New England Patriots!
Ha. Good one, joe.
|1.3.08 @ 7:26PM|#
I disagree. If Huckabee can keep himself in the top tier, he could clean up in the South.
Given the expected Thompson drop out--who was the leading Southern
candidates--,that could be entirely true. But remember how Dean was
supposed to clean up in New England despite losing Iowa? And
Huckabee doesn't even have the money Dean did. No victories, a
front loaded schedule, and lack of money could sap his momentum
without an early victory.
|1.3.08 @ 7:29PM|#
I think that Ron Paul could take second, ...
"If he works real hard and applies himself...he could go another
foot!"
|1.3.08 @ 7:31PM|#
I can confirm one supporter of Dr. Paul in the state of Iowa. My
brother told me he was going to support him in Washington
township.
Other than that I have no real idea how things will turn out.
|1.3.08 @ 7:32PM|#
Cesar,
But remember how Dean was supposed to clean up in New England
despite losing Iowa?
No. Not at all. John Kerry was going to win New Hampshire (the
first) and Massachusetts (the biggest) even before he was projected
to win Iowa. That's my recollection, anyway. Maybe I've just
forgotten.
No victories, a front loaded schedule, and lack of money could
sap his momentum without an early victory. I'd say that
Super-Duper Tuesday is SO front-loaded that it all but guarantees a
big split.
Electronic Taoist|1.3.08 @ 7:34PM|#
Considering how the Paul campaign so consistently exceeded my
expectations all of last year, put me down for a stunning Ron Paul
victory in Iowa tonight.
Horrible, horrible optimism...
BakedPenguin|1.3.08 @ 7:34PM|#
If Huckabee wins, everyone's going to be gunning for him. And there's a lot to shoot at, even if you're not libertarian.
NY Voter|1.3.08 @ 7:35PM|#
The Newshour just had a run down of all the candidates. Although they gushed and analyzed McCain and Thompson along with the front runners, they seemed to forget Dr. Paul is in the race.
|1.3.08 @ 7:42PM|#
On the Democratic side I expect them to draw up to three times as many people as the Republicans, and I'd say if Obama can turn out independents he will win otherwise it will be Edwards...Hillary will be in 3rd for sure.
|1.3.08 @ 7:43PM|#
"Its death for Huckabee if he doesn't win Iowa, same for
Edwards. Edwards is done even if theres basically a three-way tie."
Shit, joe beat me. I think Huck only has to do 1-3 in Iowa. He'll
do poorly in NH but SC looks like his cup of tea.
Romney should be strong everywhere since he has, at some time in
his career, said something to please everyone. And he is largely
self-financing his campaign (this is supposed to show his
"electability" in the eyes of fools like National Review I guess).
That guy is just a terrible, terrible human being imo.
Does anyone think Rudy could do poorly in Iowa, NH and SC and
depend on kicking ass in FL, NY and CA (which have lots o'
delegates)? Polls show it as a possibility, but I imagine more bad
news (losing the first three big time) will make his support
dwindle in the big states by the time the elections get
there...
rho|1.3.08 @ 7:43PM|#
I disagree. If Huckabee can keep himself in the top tier, he
could clean up in the South.
While anything is possible, I think this is incorrect. The South is
highly religious, but also pretty denominational, so merely
propping up a preacher isn't a surefire strategy. Southern Baptists
don't necessarily hang with the charismatics who don't grok the
hardshells. Religion is a lot more fractious than race. Or naked
jingoism disguised as patriotism, which is where the GOP thinks it
will gather the most Southern votes. Thus the Party's shrugs over
Romney and Giuliani.
|1.3.08 @ 7:45PM|#
Here are my predictions:
Democrats
1) Obama
2) Clinton
3) Edwards
All will be so close the media will call it a three-way tie.
Edwards either gets a clue and drops out or his campaign begins its
descent into Duncan Hunter territory.
Republicans:
1) Romney
2) Huckabee
3) McCain
4) Paul (Sorry, playing it safe here)
|1.3.08 @ 7:45PM|#
Rudy is finished, his tactics were flawed and he won't be able to recover(he certainly won't win in the first three and by then the damage is done).
|1.3.08 @ 7:47PM|#
I don't think Rudy can win New York.
Republicans in New York are economic conservatives, first and
foremost. The "Reagan Democrat" types and moderates in New York are
Democrats. Heck, Hillary won Republican upstate New York!
In one-party states and cities, the public will sometimes pick a
minority-party candidate for the executive branch because they want
somebody to check and slow down the majority party, even as they
strongly side with the basic philosophy of that majority party.
This is Romney in MA and Rudy in NYC. This doesn't demonstrate
either an ability to appeal to the majority party, or strong
support from the minority-party stalwarts.
|1.3.08 @ 7:48PM|#
Cesar-where do you see Edwards supporters going once he realizes
its futile and drops out? Are they Anybody But Clinton or will they
hang with the DLC?
At this point, since I want a Dem to win, I actually think while
Hillary and Obama are both just terrible national candidates that
Hillary is the less terrible (though a worse person and bound to be
a worse leader imo).
I should be rooting for Romney since I think he's the weaker of the
GOP frontrunners, but that man is the Anti-Christ, plain and
simple.
rho|1.3.08 @ 7:48PM|#
Also, regarding the Independents. If they turn out to make a
difference in the Dem caucuses it will only hurt Paul. If the Dem
turnout turns out to be 3X the Repubs as James suggests, Paul is
probably looking at fourth. Or fifth.
That's a pure wild-ass guess, but I don't think the ground-game in
Iowa is as good as it seems to be in New Hampshire, according to
the reports I've read about it.
I still wish Richardson was more of a factor.
|1.3.08 @ 7:48PM|#
Dems:
Obama 33
Edwards 31
Clinton 24
Repubs:
Huckster 30
Mittens 28
Paul 13
McCain 12
|1.3.08 @ 7:49PM|#
Joe,
Da Bears: 72%
Mitt Romney: 9%
John McCain: 8%
Ron Paul: 5%
Mike Huckabee: 5%
Rudy Guiliani: 2%
Thanks, I just blew beer outta my nose. You owe me a new
keyboard.
And your forgot one possibility. What if da good Dr. changes his
name to Dit-ka?
|1.3.08 @ 7:51PM|#
If Edwards doesn't do well in Iowa and drops, I'd expect his supporters to go mostly to Obama.
|1.3.08 @ 7:51PM|#
My 3 wishes for the night:
-Good beer.
-Paul beats McCain and Giuliani.
-Either Romney or Hillary suffers a humiliating defeat.
Make me proud, Iowa.
|1.3.08 @ 7:52PM|#
Cesar-where do you see Edwards supporters going once he realizes its futile and drops out? Are they Anybody But Clinton or will they hang with the DLC?
They go over to Obama. Edwards big shtick is his extreme
economic illiteracy opposition to international trade.
Clinton, to her credit, doesn't hold fantasies about textile mills
and steelworks suddenly employing thousands of Americans again in
2009.
Dershowitz|1.3.08 @ 7:53PM|#
Yeah, baby! Obama and Romney FTW! Harvard Law School versus . .
. THAT'S RIGHT, HARVARD LAW SCHOOL!
Just hand over the whole government now, and I'll allow you to kiss
my tennis racket.
An unforced error killed Rudy\|1.3.08 @ 7:59PM|#
Rudy's campaign is already dead, he just doesn't know it yet.
His fatal error was when he lied in that debate last year:
"That's an extraordinary statement as someone who lived through the
attack of Sept. 11, that we invited the attack because we were
attacking Iraq. I don't think I've ever heard that before and I've
heard some pretty absurd explanations for Sept. 11. I would ask the
congressman to withdraw that comment and tell us that he didn't
really mean that."
The fact that the man would use such rank and obvious bullshit as
his front line of defense is all too telling. People don't like
liars. Stick a fork in him, he's done.
|1.3.08 @ 8:00PM|#
Hey does anyone know how I can vote in the primaries in
Nevada?
I am in Egypt right now. Would I have to fly home? Can I vote at
the embassy?
|1.3.08 @ 8:03PM|#
On the other hand...Paul is the only Republican with enthusiasm on his side. Republican crowds have been only a fraction of those of the Democratic candidates, so maybe he benefits from the lack of excitement among those in the Party of Bush.
|1.3.08 @ 8:07PM|#
Edward,
Even if all the criticisms you have of Ron Paul, and of
libertarians are dead on. Your continued presence here would still
be a indication of some sort of mental imbalance.
|1.3.08 @ 8:09PM|#
Clinton, to her credit, doesn't hold fantasies about textile
mills and steelworks suddenly employing thousands of Americans
again in 2009.
Oh, come on, surely we can jump start this economy again if we'll
just pass Smooth Hawley II!
|1.3.08 @ 8:09PM|#
Crap, I have nothing insightful to offer. Oh well:
Ron Paul: 100%
All Others: Bollucks
I need to go pick up some beer...
Bingo|1.3.08 @ 8:14PM|#
Ugggghhhhh "don't know who they're going to vote for yet" at the entrance polls.
rho|1.3.08 @ 8:17PM|#
Republican crowds have been only a fraction of those of the
Democratic candidates, so maybe he benefits from the lack of
excitement among those in the Party of Bush
Certainly possible, but I don't think so. Paul is bringing in new
people to the Republican party, not tapping a silent majority
within the party.
Most of this is blind speculation, because I don't think we have
anything like an accurate pulse on the body politic. I think this
election season will show current polling methods to be dangerously
inaccurate. I could be wrong--Iowa will be a good test case. But if
Iowa proves the pollsters to be full of shit, all bets are off and
guesswork becomes the new black.
|1.3.08 @ 8:17PM|#
I told my dad, who is a Republican, but is barely following the horserace at this point, that Ron Paul will come in at worse 3rd in Iowa. I hate looking bad to my dad, so I'm pretty sure I'm right.
jimmydageek|1.3.08 @ 8:18PM|#
The whole process on the D side seems so sloppy and prone to lots of error. Just my observation.
Sam Grove|1.3.08 @ 8:18PM|#
Edward,
In honor of your snark, I hereby pledge another $20 to the Ron Paul
campaign.
|1.3.08 @ 8:19PM|#
The whole process on the D side seems so sloppy and prone to lots of error. Just my observation.
Sloppy and prone to error=the Democratic Party in general.
jimmydageek|1.3.08 @ 8:19PM|#
Edward,
Trolling against Ron Paul = hairs on the shit
Mommy must be proud of you.
|1.3.08 @ 8:21PM|#
I used to live in Iowa and caucused for the Dems, it was interesting, and fun for a political junkie like me. I actually prefer it to the Primary where you just walk in and out.
|1.3.08 @ 8:22PM|#
Sloppy and prone to error=the Democratic Party in
general.
That is copletely unfair!
Ali|1.3.08 @ 8:22PM|#
I hate looking bad to my dad, so I'm pretty sure I'm
right.
Right now I am afraid looking bad to Fox News who would have a
field day telling us all how Paul and his followers were doomed
from the beginning. And of course that they knew it all along. God,
please, don't let that happen!
Observer|1.3.08 @ 8:23PM|#
surely we can jump start this economy again if we'll just
pass Smooth Hawley II!
President Hilary to taxpayers: Just bend over and relax. This is
going to be a nice Smooth Hawley.
|1.3.08 @ 8:24PM|#
The CNN people just laid out a scenario with Paul coming in
fourth in Iowa and third in New Hamphshire.
Final shot of Ron Paul looking good at a podium, and the narrator
says "Ron Paul is in this race for the duration."
Ali|1.3.08 @ 8:24PM|#
In honor of your snark, I hereby pledge another $20 to the Ron Paul
campaign.
Excellent idea! Every time Dondero or Edward poke fun at Paul or
his followers, each one of us would donate 5-100$ (depending on the
level of the trolling) to Paul. That ought to teach them both (and
hopefully stop them).
|1.3.08 @ 8:24PM|#
Even though I am a Dem, I might vote for Paul in the primaries just to wipe that damn smirk off of Hannity's face.
|1.3.08 @ 8:25PM|#
If Ron Paul takes fourth or fifth, Wonkette, Dondero, and Edward
will rejoice at "the defeat of the Paultards."
If Ron Paul takes third, Wonkette, Dondero, and Edward will rejoice
at "the defeat of the Paultards."
beetlejuice; formerly known as|1.3.08 @ 8:26PM|#
@ kwais:
Already pointed out in a previous thread that Edward needs a
shrink. Pretty pathetic, when he can prompt a former lurker to jump
on board to bash him.
|1.3.08 @ 8:26PM|#
I'm sorry, prolefeed, the correct answer is "Da
Bears."
I don't know about that. Even the mighty Ditka declined to run
against Obama for the Senate back in '04 (and yes, the Illinois GOP
was courting him quite strongly).
|1.3.08 @ 8:27PM|#
Edward says "Dorky Ron Paul doesn't make it to third
place."
Nothing has given me more hope than that, all day. Da do Ron Run
Run, da do Ron Run!
|1.3.08 @ 8:27PM|#
What if da good Dr. changes his name to Dit-ka?
Then he'd be Dr. No Dit-ka. Probably not the best career move.
|1.3.08 @ 8:28PM|#
President Hilary to taxpayers: Just bend over and relax.
This is going to be a nice Smooth Hawley.
Ach! I hope H&R never institutes post editing ... the jokes
about typos are just too good to give up.
Ali|1.3.08 @ 8:30PM|#
Bingo- I only found this: http://www.politico.com/iowacaucuses/iowamap-popup.html
|1.3.08 @ 8:31PM|#
Entrance polls show Clinton leading slightly over Obama and Edwards...according to CNN.
|1.3.08 @ 8:31PM|#
The CNN people just laid out a scenario with Paul coming in
fourth in Iowa and third in New Hamphshire.
Final shot of Ron Paul looking good at a podium, and the narrator
says "Ron Paul is in this race for the duration."
I saw that too, joe.
I've been watching news coverage for the past few weeks, and only
today, TODAY, has the MSM even so much discussed Paul as though he
will get REAL votes, and without condescending smirks on their
faces.
|1.3.08 @ 8:33PM|#
Bingo,
It's looking pretty bad for Giuliani and Romney, too -- they're at
0%. I predict Duncan Hunter shocks everyone and wins it.
Ali|1.3.08 @ 8:33PM|#
What in the world are the number underneath the candidates' names? The number of people who "voted"? 20 or something so far and that is 2%?
Bingo|1.3.08 @ 8:33PM|#
Mine is conveniently clickable for any other people that want to check it ;)
Floyd|1.3.08 @ 8:33PM|#
From the New York
Times Caucus page:
7:20 p.m. | Rockin' Out Lucky us! Ron Paul is having a party
right next to our work space. His space is completely empty, except
for the bartender and a couple of cops. But there's a live band
warming up. That means a throbbing beat is vibrating these thin
hotel partitions. Our whole collective head is vibrating too. Is
this Mr. Paul's revenge on the MSM?
|1.3.08 @ 8:34PM|#
Whoa! On CNN they had the first GOP numbers in, and there was a
big blank spot, like about 12-13%
Are they just going to pretend Paul doesn't exist?
beetlejuice|1.3.08 @ 8:34PM|#
Why do none of the reporting counties show anybody receiving more than 0%?
|1.3.08 @ 8:35PM|#
Wait a minute...according to that Politico site, 37 votes is 4% of the vote for the GOP? Turnout must be really low... ;-)
Eric Dondero|1.3.08 @ 8:36PM|#
Reports are coming in...
Looks good for Huckabee... Big turnout from rural areas, and
Religious Conservatives.
That's not good for Economic Conservatives (and libertarians)
supporting Romney.
Let's hope things get better for Mitt as the big cities start
reporting in.
|1.3.08 @ 8:36PM|#
My prediction:
Dems:
Edwards: 32
Obama: 30
Clinton: 29
Reps:
Huckabee: 31
Romney: 29
Paul: 14
McCain: 12
|1.3.08 @ 8:38PM|#
I don't post here that often. I am compelled to post b/c I want
to see a strong showing by Ron Paul not b/c of dick spits like
Edward and Dondero, but b/c I want to see what the blathering
gasbags on CNN, FOX, MSNBC, etc. reaction will be.
Regards,
TDL
Ali|1.3.08 @ 8:38PM|#
Wait a minute...according to that Politico site, 37 votes is
4% of the vote for the GOP? Turnout must be really low...
;-)
;-) Yes! Hopefully all the young people will brave the weather for
Da Man!
|1.3.08 @ 8:39PM|#
Dondero,
I thought Rudy wanted Mitt's Flip-Flop Express to lose in IA.
Or are you changing allegiance?
|1.3.08 @ 8:39PM|#
Fuck you CNN! They're leaving a good 15% or so off of the pie
chart.
Any better suggestions?
|1.3.08 @ 8:40PM|#
If you roll the mouse over the individual counties, the percentages for Paul don't look so bad. He was up to 27% in Iowa County (I think that's where U of Iowa is).
|1.3.08 @ 8:40PM|#
crimethink,
He knows Giuliani doesn't have a prayer in Iowa and can't bring
himself to felate the Huckster.
Ali|1.3.08 @ 8:42PM|#
Taylor county has 40% reporting but non of the candidates receiving any votes. What only cows live there or what?
Eric Dondero|1.3.08 @ 8:42PM|#
So far not looking good for populist leftwing candidate Ron
Paul.
He's not in the Top Four.
Fox is reporting McCain in 4th at 12%, but nothing beyond
that.
Huck, Romney and then Thompson lead.
|1.3.08 @ 8:42PM|#
You know something, if you had told us one year ago that we were
gonna come in third in Iowa, we woulda given anything for
that.
And you know something? You know something? Not only are we going
to New Hampshire, Tom Larkin, we're goin' to South Carolina, and
Oklahoma, and Arizona!, and NORTH DAKOTA, and NEW MEXICO, AND WE'RE
GOING TO CALIFORNIA, AND TEXAS, AND NEW YORK, AND WE'RE GOING TO
SOUTH DAKOTA, ANOREGON, AND WASHINGTON, AND MICHIGAN!! AND THEN
WE'RE GOING TO WASHINGTON DC TO TAKEBACKTHEWHITEHOUSE!!!!!!!
YEEEEAAAAAARRRRRRGGGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!
Other Matt|1.3.08 @ 8:43PM|#
President Hilary to taxpayers: Just bend over and relax....Bill will be along to take care of you in a minute...
Bingo|1.3.08 @ 8:43PM|#
Lower right Ali.
These are probably all the farmhouses reporting in, the larger
venues will take longer to count.
Eric Dondero|1.3.08 @ 8:44PM|#
Crimethink, I'm with Rudy til the end. But am a big supporter of
Mitt and Fred, as well.
I've got bunches of libertarian friends in the Mitt Romney
campaign. We've sort of struck a deal.
Last couple weeks both the Romney campaign and the Rudy campaign
have gotten friendlier. We both recognize that both our candidates
are strong Economic Conservatives, and that we must head off the
Huck Monster!!
|1.3.08 @ 8:44PM|#
Taylor county has 40% reporting but non of the candidates
receiving any votes. What only cows live there or what?
They must be using the Diebold machines! Those people at the RP
meetup were right!
Eric Dondero|1.3.08 @ 8:46PM|#
Shiiiit!
Fox is reporting a "huge number of evangelicals coming out to
vote."
Libertarians, Fiscal Cons, we will now need to unite against the
Huck Monster for New Hampshire, SC, and Florida!
We Must!! stop the Huck Monster, and the Religious Right
Economically liberal Populist Huck supporters!!
|1.3.08 @ 8:47PM|#
Eric,
No shit. Too bad you threw your weight, not saying you are fat,
behind a man who couldn't be bothered to run in Iowa.
Eric Dondero|1.3.08 @ 8:49PM|#
Kwix, Iowa is hardcore religious conservative territory. Has
always been.
How could they have ever liked a libertarian-leaning Pro-Choice
Economic Conservative like Rudy?
New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, California, Texas, Florida,
Colorado, Washington State, Oregon on the other hand???
Prime Rudy Territory.
|1.3.08 @ 8:51PM|#
Dondero,
Romney, Giuliani, and Thompson have already peaked. If you would
deny the Huck Monster, you must forsake your pride and embrace the
rLOVEution. Our Leader is ruthlessly just, but also bounteously
merciful.
|1.3.08 @ 8:52PM|#
Libertarians, Fiscal Cons, we will now need to unite against
the Huck Monster for New Hampshire, SC, and Florida!
We Must!! stop the Huck Monster, and the Religious Right
Economically liberal Populist Huck supporters!!
That's right! Join us with Paul against Huckabee!
|1.3.08 @ 8:53PM|#
Prime Rudy Territory.
If you're so confident, why are you flailing around like a walrus
bitten by a shark? Why have you befriended your main competitor in
Mitt Romney?
Ali|1.3.08 @ 8:54PM|#
OMG, CNN is Professor-and-Marianne-ing Ron
Paul!!!!!!!
What in the world does that mean!?!?
Eric Dondero|1.3.08 @ 8:55PM|#
Tonight may be a Shock & Awe for Fiscal Cons &
Libertarians. So, some good may come out of it.
Perhaps it will wake us all up, and force us to combine our efforts
and unite against the most unlibertarian of all candidates Mike
Huckabee.
Fred Thompson supporters...
Rudy Giuliani supporters...
Mitt Romney supporters...
We need to stop the Huck Monster!!!
|1.3.08 @ 8:55PM|#
OMG, CNN is Professor-and-Marianne-ing Ron Paul!!!!!!!
What in the world does that mean!?!?
Sounds like a Gilligan's Island Reference... beyond that...?
Ali|1.3.08 @ 8:55PM|#
I still believe that if cows were enfranchised in Iowa, they'd vote Hill and Guilliani.
|1.3.08 @ 8:55PM|#
I didn't expect Thompson would be this strong. I thought he was basically on suicide watch.
Eric Dondero|1.3.08 @ 8:55PM|#
Fox just announced that Huckabee has won the Iowa Caucus.
A genuinely sad day for liberty.
Ali|1.3.08 @ 8:56PM|#
Sounds like a Gilligan's Island Reference... beyond
that...?
Yes, please. I have no idea what Gilligan is (must some sort of
weirdo sci-fi stuff --but really this is not the time). Sorry!
|1.3.08 @ 8:57PM|#
Looks like Paul and McCain are neck in neck, slightly behind Thompson. With 85% left to count, third place is still a significant possibility. Romney is waaaaaaay behind Huck.
Bingo|1.3.08 @ 8:57PM|#
Great, people that think the earth was created 6,000 years ago get to pick a leader. Goddamn.
Eric Dondero|1.3.08 @ 8:57PM|#
The total Fiscal Conservative/libertarian vote is 40%.
Romney at 23%
Thompson at 14%
Giuliani at 3%
That's much larger than Huckabee's 33% margin.
Time to unite against the Huck Monster fellow Fiscal
Cons/libertarians!!
|1.3.08 @ 8:58PM|#
Donderooo,
You have obviously never lived in Florida. The only "social
liberals" like your beloved Giuliani are Yankee retires who vote
Democrat. I doubt his song will play well in the rural West either.
Indeed, if there is a strong Huck showing down the road, I fully
expect Florida to go to him.
Southern Fried Baptists!
Ali|1.3.08 @ 8:58PM|#
If we're only 15% in, why are people so conclusive? I have no TV where I am now, would someone please explain how Fox is able to report the (final?) result so early?
Eric Dondero|1.3.08 @ 8:59PM|#
Yes Ali, it is over.
Where you been?
You know the Reason H&R blog is the place to be for all such
events. You went AWOL on your H&R bretheren, and missed all the
fun.
Shame, shame.
|1.3.08 @ 8:59PM|#
Eric,
Your point would be stronger if you add the 11% from
you-know-who...come on, do it. DO IT!
|1.3.08 @ 8:59PM|#
This just in: Iowa's slack-jawed hicks pick Turd Sandwich over Giant Douche. Dondero despondent.
Eric Dondero|1.3.08 @ 9:00PM|#
Kwix, I am a graduate of Florida State University.
I lived in Florida for 15 years. Was stationed there in the Navy -
Jax.
My parents live in the Villages.
I'm Florida to the core. Know the State, particularly North
Florida, like the back of my hand.
Florida is Crist Country: Fiscally Conservative/Socially
Tolerant!
|1.3.08 @ 9:00PM|#
Ali,
Assuming that the precincts that are reporting are representative
of the state (ie, similar proportion of urban/rural, etc), Huck's
15% lead is going to be nearly imposible for Romney to
surmount.
Xmas|1.3.08 @ 9:01PM|#
The original lyrics to the Gilligan's island song was "..and the rest!" Leaving the Professor and Marianne out of the song altogether.
|1.3.08 @ 9:02PM|#
On the Politico tracking site, doesn't it look like Ron Paul is sticking out his tongue in his photo?
rho|1.3.08 @ 9:02PM|#
Crimethink, I'm with Rudy til the end. But am a big
supporter of Mitt and Fred, as well.
Shorter Dondero:
I'll sucky-sucky, but anal and scat are not off the table,
yo.
Say, Eric Dondero, how's your campaign going to supplant Ron Paul
in the TX14 district?
|1.3.08 @ 9:04PM|#
Chris Matthews is already trashing Huckabee right after hes been projected the winner. The media has built up Huckabee, now they're going to have fun tearing him down.
|1.3.08 @ 9:06PM|#
Just went up to 25% reporting...Huck went down, Romney went up, Thompson went down, McCain unchanged, Paul a smidgen down.
Bingo|1.3.08 @ 9:06PM|#
Is this really a surprise? A big government religious candidate won in a state that loves its agricultural subsidies.
|1.3.08 @ 9:07PM|#
According to Kos, Clinton in 3rd with about a third reporting... nice.
No result can hurt Clinton unless its a really distant third. She
can spin it anyway she wants to make it look good otherwise.
|1.3.08 @ 9:09PM|#
Donderoooo,
FSU, good party school. Kellum Hall, first stop.
Crist country. Riiiight. Sorry, I haven't lived there since Jeb
Bush was Gov. My bad.
It must have been my imagination that there were more churches than
gas stations and that our gun shows might as well have functioned
as KKK meetings. But then again, I didn't stay in the college town,
nor the Yankee retirement communities as you apparently did.
I know North Florida, lived there for 12 years myself, and
Religious Conservative it is. Leon County may not be but everything
to the west is.
Eric Dondero|1.3.08 @ 9:09PM|#
Wow. The Politico site is definitely the best. Great graphics.
Up-to-date detailed info.
Good job Politico.
And yes, it does look like Ron Paul is sticking his tongue out.
Bingo|1.3.08 @ 9:10PM|#
RNC chairman doesn't answer the question, has canned answers. This is even more retarded than the Dem's cattle drive to vote.
|1.3.08 @ 9:10PM|#
Yeah, Clinton is 3rd...and she's about 2% behind Obama in the lead. It's not over by any stretch of the imagination.
Seminole|1.3.08 @ 9:10PM|#
I'm Florida to the core. Know the State, particularly North
Florida, like the back of my hand.
Prove it
Where is Munson Slough? Two Egg?
|1.3.08 @ 9:12PM|#
Well, the GOP is set for 1st and 2nd.
3rd, 4th, and 5th is gonna be more interesting.
Looks like Dodd, Kucinich, and Gravel couldn't even muster 15% at
any of the caucuses...
|1.3.08 @ 9:13PM|#
UPDATE: Liveblogging, commence!
Why do I sense a Patrick Stewart vocal presence here?
|1.3.08 @ 9:14PM|#
Its pretty much Huckabee vs. McCain now. Who would have ever guessed that a few months ago?
|1.3.08 @ 9:14PM|#
zero,
Oops. I assumed Iowa City was in Iowa County. Shows what happens
when you AssUMe...
Eric Dondero|1.3.08 @ 9:14PM|#
I really hope Mitt Romney takes Iowa. That way, he can hire me and I can afford to pay for hookers on K Street again!
|1.3.08 @ 9:15PM|#
Cesar,
If Romney pulls NH out of the fire, he might be OK. Given how close
it looks like the Dems will be, most indeps are going to be voting
in the Dem primary, so McCain (and Paul) are going to be hurt by
that.
|1.3.08 @ 9:15PM|#
UPDATE: Liveblogging, commence!
Why do I sense a Patrick Stewart vocal presence here?
Liveblogging, engage!
|1.3.08 @ 9:16PM|#
crimethink:
Easy mistake to make. I know because I graduated from the U of I. I
still don't see any results from the county my family lives in,
Jackson.
|1.3.08 @ 9:17PM|#
CNN just projected Guiliani beating Paul.
Old Media is dead. Long live the Internets!
|1.3.08 @ 9:18PM|#
Since Huckabee has won, its time to quote one of my personal
heroes, Barry Goldwater:
When you say 'radical Right' today, I think of these moneymaking ventures by fellows like Pat Robertson and others who are trying to take the Republican party away from the Republican party and make a religious organization out of it. If that ever happens, kiss politics good-bye."
Condoleeza Rice|1.3.08 @ 9:18PM|#
Do you want to know why I donated $2.3k to Ron Paul's campaign? I did this 90% for a slim chance to see that smarmy fuck George Stephanopoulos get his lunch eaten. Edward James Olmos wannabe bad-skinned fucker.
rho|1.3.08 @ 9:20PM|#
Its pretty much Huckabee vs. McCain now. Who would have ever
guessed that a few months ago?
I wouldn't put too much on the Iowa caucus. Huckabee is a soft
target.
The Wikipedia entry for the Iowa caucuses
has a floating Obama JPEG on top of it. That made me laugh.
Xmas|1.3.08 @ 9:20PM|#
Why did Dean say that Scooter Libby was pardoned? His sentence was commuted, but he certainly wasn't pardoned.
|1.3.08 @ 9:20PM|#
With 41% reporting, Huckabee dropped way down, Romney unchanged,
Thompson dropped a little, McCain unchanged, Paul drops a little,
and Giuliani rockets ahead of Paul!
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
st4rbux|1.3.08 @ 9:21PM|#
Earlier the top 4 republicans = 85%, and Paul was at 11% (25% of precincts reporting); now the top 4 = 77% (41% reporting) -- did Paul gain ground? Thompson only 13% and McCain 12%...
|1.3.08 @ 9:21PM|#
Eric knows Fla., believe me.
Two Egg, isn't that where they banned 1984 from the library back in
the '80s?
|1.3.08 @ 9:22PM|#
Politico shows Giuliani pulling ahead of Paul. This puts Paul at
6th. :(
How the heck did Thompson get 3rd?!
|1.3.08 @ 9:22PM|#
I swear Rudy just went from like 1% to 10%. It's something I would compare to bullshit.
|1.3.08 @ 9:23PM|#
Cedar Rapids, IA's largest city, is in Linn Co. That's still awfully fishy. Is there a Mafia presence in CR?
|1.3.08 @ 9:26PM|#
it must be a mathematical error... 50+%?
Also, MSNBC just called Iowa for Obama, and Chris Matthews is
freaking out
|1.3.08 @ 9:26PM|#
Mr. Election Inspector, that's a nice cornfield you've got there. It'd be a shame if something happened to it...
Bingo|1.3.08 @ 9:26PM|#
How can Dems all gather in a corner and count heads and manage to report that faster than the Republican's straw poll? Is the GOP run by idiots?
Eric Dondero|1.3.08 @ 9:27PM|#
Holy Shit! Chris Wallace of Fox News and Ed Rollins of the Huckabee campaign just had a major shouting match on live air.
|1.3.08 @ 9:27PM|#
Rudy is at 50% in Linn County, others are under 15%.
Something's rotten in Denmark...
chico|1.3.08 @ 9:29PM|#
The republicans are the kings of the rigged elections. Ron Paul might just suffer from the establishments choke-hold on our democratic process. Ghouliani jumping 10% all of the sudden seems fishy. Also, its funny how it took Ron Paul's friction with Fox News to finally awaken some Republicans to the disgusting bias from that network. I pray that Paul wins it all but then again the goons in D.C. will not allow the people to take back their liberty so easily.
Eric Dondero|1.3.08 @ 9:29PM|#
Yes! I hope the Huckster likes second place!!! Us Mainstream Libertarians need jobs too!!! Blowjobs, that is!
|1.3.08 @ 9:30PM|#
I said I'd only vote Democrat if Obama and Huckabee get the nominations, just to keep that "smirking hick" out of the White House. But I *really* don't want to have to do it!
Eric Dondero|1.3.08 @ 9:30PM|#
Fox has declared this thing too soon. The numbers are changing
dramatically.
Giuliani is now at 10.6%.
I don't believe that number. And I'm a Rudy guy. If he gets over
10% that's amazing, considering he didn't even hardly campaign in
Iowa.
I think we've got another hour and a half of returns coming in
before we know how this thing is going to turn out.
|1.3.08 @ 9:30PM|#
Cesar,
I'm not going to say the 5-letter F-word, but it's pretty bizarre
that Rudy would get 50% in one county and only 3% in the rest of
the state. Cedar Rapids isn't THAT different from the rest of
IA.
|1.3.08 @ 9:30PM|#
If the figure its wrong, I'm going to chalk it up (in good faith) to mechanical and human error rather than vote stealing.
Anonymoose|1.3.08 @ 9:31PM|#
@chico: I'm from Illinois. My experience says Democrats are the kings of rigged elections (not that it's relevant to the situation at hand)
Eric Dondero|1.3.08 @ 9:31PM|#
There's a faux Eric Dondero poster here. It's probably Paul
Frankel again, alias Disinter, alias "Pauli Cannoli."
The silly comment two above is obviously not mine.
Again, here's my cell phone number to confirm any and all posts
from me - 832-896-9505.
Fluffy|1.3.08 @ 9:31PM|#
I can easily believe that Rudy beat us in Linn County.
I can possibly believe that Rudy beat Romney and Huckabee in Linn
County.
I can't, and don't, believe that Rudy got 50% of the vote in Linn
County. I just don't. I am assuming for the moment that it's a
misreport and will be corrected later, but if it stands up it
simply isn't credible as an honest number.
|1.3.08 @ 9:32PM|#
According to the totals, Rudy got 3500 votes in Linn Co., and 1400 in the rest of the state! BS.
Eric Dondero|1.3.08 @ 9:32PM|#
If it was Cedar Rapids where Rudy got that vote, than I believe
it.
That's where Giuliani's Iowa Campaign Chair fmr. Congressman Jim
Nussle is from.
I expect that 10% number to drop though as more Counties come
in.
But still, not bad for Rudy.
|1.3.08 @ 9:33PM|#
Now that Giuliani is ahead of Paul, they'll show his vote.
Bank it.
Yeah, but only 41% of the precincts have reported, and Rudy's
massive gain seems to have come from only one county.
Still a good chance Paul can pull ahead.
|1.3.08 @ 9:33PM|#
Only 57% of Linn County is reporting. A bug Rudy caucus probably just turned in their votes at once...
|1.3.08 @ 9:33PM|#
Ali,
Rudy being ahead of Paul is a mirage. There was a mix-up of some
sort *wink* in Linn Co.
And even if there wasn't, he's going to shrink back down as other
counties report.
Eric Dondero|1.3.08 @ 9:34PM|#
My "campaign" for Congress? Great. I endorsed Chris Peden back
in July. And two weeks ago, the other declared candidate Andy Mann,
endorsed Peden, as well.
I expect Peden to do quite well against Ron Paul.
But thanks for asking.
|1.3.08 @ 9:34PM|#
I'm not the biggest Obama fan, but I'm glad he stuck it to Hillary Clinton tonight with her smug "inevitability" and lifetime of plotting to win the presidency.
Ali|1.3.08 @ 9:35PM|#
crimethink- I hope you're right. If nothing else, I was hoping to taunt Eric a little.
st4rbux|1.3.08 @ 9:36PM|#
re: rigged elections; can we all just agree that the politically entrenched are the masters of rigging, and not those polling at 10%?
Eric Dondero|1.3.08 @ 9:36PM|#
I agree with Crimethink. This is a momentary blip for my guy
Rudy.
But it still shows that there's at least one part of Iowa - the
more Moderate Republican area of Cedar Rapids, where he does quite
well.
That tells us New Jersey, Conn, PA, Oregon, Washington State,
Florida, Texas and the big enchillada of California will be PRIME
Territory for Rudy Giuliani!
rho|1.3.08 @ 9:36PM|#
No no, you were pretty emphatic about running for Paul's seat.
You were going to save the union, IIRC, and perhaps wear
tights.
Say, I heard Peden had $360 in his campaign chest. Are you going to
send him some of your Ron Paul paycheck money? You know, to salve
your conscience?
robc|1.3.08 @ 9:37PM|#
Dondero,
And your post just before mine is wrong. Unless of course those
5000 votes come back.
Hooter_McBoob|1.3.08 @ 9:37PM|#
Paul needs 4th place. With 65 percent reporting, he needs to make up a few percentage points...
Eric Dondero|1.3.08 @ 9:37PM|#
Don't sweat it. My big man Rudy, a true fiscal conservative and
sex machine, will save Iowa. He'll fight for all of us Mainstream
Libertarians!!!!
Hey, does anyone else wanna help me get hired by the Rudy campaign?
I've been doing lots of gay porn for money now, and I could really
use the scratch. This dick is not gonna suck itself.
|1.3.08 @ 9:38PM|#
Heh, Giuliani just lost 3300 votes in Linn Co.!
That's what happens when you spam the caucuses...
Unfortunately, the Maverick just pulled further ahead of the
Champion of the Constitution.
Fluffy|1.3.08 @ 9:39PM|#
Linn County corrected their reporting error. Giuliani is back
down to 4%.
I can't be too happy about it because Paul's vote total sucks dog
dick. McCain is a fucking zombie and Thompson's not much better and
Paul can't catch those fucking guys?
At least Fuckabee will lose the general in a landslide.
st4rbux|1.3.08 @ 9:40PM|#
If Paul is only 3% behind the 'surging'/comeback-kid McCain, I'm OK with that. That should be a story in itself.
Condoleeza Rice|1.3.08 @ 9:40PM|#
>>Rho says: Can I call to confirm how your campaign for
TX14 is going?
just chekc out the Campaign
Website
|1.3.08 @ 9:40PM|#
I'm looking at the CBS news results page right now, and I'm
seeing Giuliani down at 4%. Is that a glitch, or did he really bomb
tonight?
-jcr
rho|1.3.08 @ 9:40PM|#
McCain is a fucking zombie and Thompson's not much better
and Paul can't catch those fucking guys?
Huckabee has 33%.
33%.
Put things in context.
|1.3.08 @ 9:41PM|#
Unfortunately, the Maverick just pulled further ahead of the
Champion of the Constitution.
Yeah, but Paul is still holding at 10%. If he can stay in the
double-digits, that will at least demonstrate he's doing better
than the polls would indicate....
|1.3.08 @ 9:42PM|#
FYI, for those that care, Des Moines is Iowa's largest city. Not
Cedar Rapids (which is, yes, in Linn County. From my college days
at U of Iowa, I recall Cedar Rapids reaking thanks to the pet food
and cereal production).
Take heart that we're working hard for Dr. Paul to win Santa Cruz
county.
Fluffy|1.3.08 @ 9:42PM|#
If Paul comes in 5th in Iowa he should immediately drop
out.
There. I said it.
|1.3.08 @ 9:42PM|#
The silly comment two above is obviously not mine.
Uhh, yeah. I know we are smart enough to figure this out, are you?
Give you a hint, hover over the name. See how it says gayboys.com.
Yeah, that's what we like to call a "dead giveaway".
rho|1.3.08 @ 9:42PM|#
If Paul comes in 5th in Iowa he should immediately drop
out.
There. I said it.
Why?
|1.3.08 @ 9:43PM|#
RP has to get ~18% in the remaining precincts to catch McCain.
That's gonna be tough.
The "good" news is that it doesn't matter as far as delegates
go...Huckabee's going to take all of them no matter what, and RP
isn't as desperate for money as the others are.
Steve|1.3.08 @ 9:43PM|#
Again, here's my cell phone number to confirm any and all
posts from me - 832-896-9505.
oh don't worry, we'll be sure to pass it on.
Fluffy|1.3.08 @ 9:44PM|#
Because he's just wasting his time and everyone else's
time.
If you come in 5th in Iowa, I don't want to get any emails asking
for $23 million bucks. To spend on what? Coming in 5th?
|1.3.08 @ 9:45PM|#
CR used to be the biggest, didn't it?
According to Wikipedia, Des Moines grew from ~200000 in 2000 to
~535000 today?! Did they actually become more populated, or annex
the surrounding towns a la Indianapolis?
|1.3.08 @ 9:46PM|#
If Paul comes in 5th in Iowa he should immediately drop
out.
Well, if Giuliani come in 6th, what should he do?
Yubi|1.3.08 @ 9:46PM|#
I cannot believe that provincial douchebag is coming in first. Romney has already said his congrats to Fuckabee. Ugh! HUCKABEE? Are you serious???
|1.3.08 @ 9:47PM|#
Fluffy,
You're a fickle one, aren't you? Iowa is one of the worst states
for RP...addicted to federal money and massively social
conservative.
|1.3.08 @ 9:47PM|#
If Paul comes in 5th in Iowa he should immediately drop
out.
No he shouldn't. Of course he's not going to do well in Iowa. It
was to be expected. Let's see how New Hampshire goes first. Since
that state is definitely more libertarian-leaning than Iowa, one
should expect a better showing. If Paul can't place third or
better, then that really doesn't bode well for the campaign.
Ali|1.3.08 @ 9:47PM|#
Huck winning Iowa is not a big deal (recall Robertson in 88-- he went nowhere (aka Iowa) from there). What is a big deal is Romney loosing. I just hope Paul would come in third somehow.
|1.3.08 @ 9:47PM|#
I was never counting on Iowa anyway, too many theocrats and corn farmers, i'm waiting to see what happens in NH.
|1.3.08 @ 9:47PM|#
There's still a lot of precincts to report. And Iowa is a backwards farm state. And no one who has won the presidency in the last like 6 elections won the Iowa Caucuses...
Anonymoose.|1.3.08 @ 9:47PM|#
He has way too much money to drop out.
Paul didn't make a push for Iowa, perhaps a good thing considering
Huckabee's natural base. It would have been wasted money, as Mitt
surely now knows.
rho|1.3.08 @ 9:48PM|#
If you come in 5th in Iowa, I don't want to get any emails
asking for $23 million bucks. To spend on what? Coming in
5th?
As I recall, Iowa was never considered a "low-hanging fruit" by the
Ron Paul campaign, money or no money. The Lew Rockwellians were
considering the option that Dr. Paul would bring home the bacon
there, but outside of them it was considered a outlier. NH and SC
are the Paul campaign's targets, as I understand it.
I do agree with you to an extent, in that I'm horribly disappointed
that Paul couldn't meet or beat Thompson. The Fred!wagon is kind of
the Mason-Dixon line for losers.
|1.3.08 @ 9:48PM|#
Fluffy,
Have you sent the man any money?
Besides, Iowa is very subsidy heavy and RP is the only man in the
race calling subsidies for what they are, robbing the American
Citizen for special interests. Hell, if RP doesn't come in last in
Iowa (or Kansas, Illinois and Nebraska) I'd be really
surprised.
|1.3.08 @ 9:48PM|#
And no one who has won the presidency in the last like 6 elections won the Iowa Caucuses...
Bush did in 2000.
Yubi|1.3.08 @ 9:50PM|#
Well Cesar, Bush and Huckabee are both pandering hicks that fit quite well in that backwards atmosphere. Fucking Iowa.
|1.3.08 @ 9:50PM|#
But I heard something like no one who finished below 3rd has won the nomination since 1972.
|1.3.08 @ 9:51PM|#
If he comes in 5th in NH, that's big trouble. I'm not saying he should drop out, but that'll be way worse than this.
|1.3.08 @ 9:51PM|#
And no one who has won the presidency in the last like 6
elections won the Iowa Caucuses...
Bush did in 2000.
Well, that certainly tells you a lot about Iowa, doesn't it?
robc|1.3.08 @ 9:51PM|#
crimethink,
I dont know what place he got, but Clinton got something like 3% in
Iowa in 1992. But, Harkin was running so no one bothered to compete
against him, so maybe 3% was third place.
|1.3.08 @ 9:52PM|#
Bingo, Reinmoose:
My girlfriend just confirmed for me that Czech is close to Slovak,
her native language. So I'm in on those Czech lessons.
Edward|1.3.08 @ 9:52PM|#
Ron Paul the Fourth-Place (if that) Joke
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!
Send him more money, you fucking moron twits.
|1.3.08 @ 9:52PM|#
I think this quote from
CNN sums it up nicely:
For most of 2007, Huckabee languished in the single digits in the polls and had very little success raising money. But his momentum really picked up in the final six weeks of the year when social conservatives -- an important voting bloc in Iowa -- began to move his way.
Meanwhile, former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee and Rep. Duncan Hunter of California will likely need strong showings in Iowa to keep their campaigns going, while Rep. Ron Paul of Texas is likely to ride his surge of popularity through February 5 -- "Super Tuesday," when 24 states hold their primaries -- no matter where he places in the early contests.
Yubi|1.3.08 @ 9:52PM|#
i agree crimethink...Paul needs to place AT LEAST second in NH. WTF? If he can't win there then we have no hope.
Mr. Chartreuse|1.3.08 @ 9:52PM|#
In my heart I was hoping for more than 10% and beating McCain, but if Paul stays in double digits that will be fine by me. Some of the the interesting crosstabs from the exit poll is that Paul won independents with 33% and those who were angry with the Bush administration he won that group with 54%
Eric Dondero|1.3.08 @ 9:53PM|#
Yeah! Fuck Ron Paul!!! The Paultards are real pissed now!!!
Since Dr. No(t gonna win Iowa) is a loser, he can donate some money
to me!!! Give me a good severance package for all the work I did
for him!!!
Let's be honest guys; with my pedophile mustache, I have a lot of
trouble picking up chicks and I need the money for a hooker. This
dick is not gonna suck itself.
|1.3.08 @ 9:54PM|#
Edward-
You supported Richardson, and I think hes behind Biden.
Don't throw stones in glass houses.
|1.3.08 @ 9:54PM|#
February 10, 1992 - Tom Harkin (76%), "Uncommitted" (12%), Paul Tsongas (4%), Bill Clinton (3%), Bob Kerrey (2%) and Jerry Brown (2%)
Bingo|1.3.08 @ 9:55PM|#
The worst thing about this (aside from never eating corn again) is that fucking FOX is going to act vindicated over excluding Paul from the debates.
|1.3.08 @ 9:55PM|#
Does anyone know where Barry Goldwater placed in the Iowa Caucuses back in 1964? I can't find anything so far.
|1.3.08 @ 9:57PM|#
Does anyone know where Barry Goldwater placed in the Iowa Caucuses back in 1964? I can't find anything so far.
They didn't exist until 1972.
rho|1.3.08 @ 9:57PM|#
i agree crimethink...Paul needs to place AT LEAST second in
NH. WTF? If he can't win there then we have no hope.
NH is wonky. McCain won it before, he can again. And Romney is
reasonably popular for the same reason the mayor of New York City
is popular in Poughkeepsie.
That said, Paul's running a different kind of campaign that's
reliant on momentum, not one-shot wins. Huckabee
needed this win, not Paul. If Huckabee can translate this into
further gains, then it's good for him. Otherwise it's Pat Robertson
all over again.
|1.3.08 @ 9:58PM|#
"Bush and Huckabee are both pandering hicks..."
No one who graduates from Andover, Yale, and Harvard is a hick,
maybe they play one for political gain, but Bush isn't a real hick,
Texan, or southerner.
Regards,
TDL
|1.3.08 @ 9:58PM|#
In my heart I was hoping for more than 10% and beating
McCain, but if Paul stays in double digits that will be fine by
me.
Sure. That's better than the polls predicted, and as Kwix pointed
out, his popularity is ascending. Considering he got a late start
campaigning, he's not doing badly. He should stay in until Super
Tuesday at least, no matter what.
|1.3.08 @ 9:58PM|#
Apparently he managed to get 15% of a caucus in Pottawatamie County in SW Iowa! Here comes the Dodd Express!!!!
|1.3.08 @ 9:59PM|#
They didn't exist until 1972.
Ah...color me stupid then. *D-oh!*
Okay....does anyone know where Barry Goldwater placed in the Iowa
PRIMARIES in 1964?
iowan|1.3.08 @ 9:59PM|#
I don't understand the results.
In my tiny, rural precinct the results were
Huckabee 14
Romney 11
Paul 9
McCain 3
Guilliani 1
Thompson 0
I had high hopes until I came home and turned on the TV.
Yubi|1.3.08 @ 9:59PM|#
Dennis Kucinich with zero percentage....
great, now msnbc is showing a riveting clip on presidential
hopeful's better halves. its all about character people.
|1.3.08 @ 10:00PM|#
David Weigel wrote: "And there's some grumbling about how Wolf
Blitzer referred to Paul's 7,800 votes as 'seven thousand' and
Giuliani's 2,700 as 'almost three thousand.'"
I noticed the same thing. One more reason Blitzer can burn in
hell.
|1.3.08 @ 10:00PM|#
Here's the history from Wikipedia:
Democrats
* January 19, 2004 - John Kerry (38%), John Edwards (32%), Howard
Dean (18%), Richard Gephardt (11%) and Dennis Kucinich (1%)
* January 24, 2000 - Al Gore (63%), Bill Bradley (37%)
* February 12, 1996 - Bill Clinton (unopposed)
* February 10, 1992 - Tom Harkin (76%), "Uncommitted" (12%), Paul
Tsongas (4%), Bill Clinton (3%), Bob Kerrey (2%) and Jerry Brown
(2%)
* February 8, 1988 - Richard Gephardt (31%), Paul Simon (27%),
Michael Dukakis (22%) and Bruce Babbitt (6%)
* February 20, 1984 - Walter Mondale (49%), Gary Hart (17%), George
McGovern (10%), Alan Cranston (7%), John Glenn (4%), Reubin Askew
(3%) and Jesse Jackson (2%)
* January 21, 1980 - Jimmy Carter (59%), Ted Kennedy (31%)
* January 19, 1976 - "Uncommitted" (37%), Jimmy Carter (28%) Birch
Bayh (13%), Fred R. Harris (10%), Morris Udall (6%), Sargent
Shriver (3%) and Henry M. Jackson (1%)
* January 24, 1972 - "Uncommitted" (36%) and Edmund Muskie (36%),
George McGovern (23%), Hubert Humphrey (2%), Eugene McCarthy (1%),
Shirley Chisholm (1%) and Henry M. Jackson (1%)[9]
Republicans
* 2004- George W. Bush (unopposed)
* 2000- George W. Bush (41%), Steve Forbes (30%), Alan Keyes (14%),
Gary Bauer (9%), John McCain (5%) and Orrin Hatch (1%)
* 1996- Bob Dole (26%), Pat Buchanan (23%), Lamar Alexander (18%),
Steve Forbes (10%), Phil Gramm (9%), Alan Keyes (7%), Richard Lugar
(4%) and Morry Taylor (1%)
* 1992- George H. W. Bush (unopposed)
* 1988- Bob Dole (37%), Pat Robertson (25%), George H. W. Bush
(19%), Jack Kemp (11%) and Pete DuPont (7%)
* 1984- Ronald Reagan (unopposed)
* 1980- George H. W. Bush (32%), Ronald Reagan (30%), Howard Baker
(15%), John Connally (9%), Phil Crane (7%), John B. Anderson (4%)
and Bob Dole (2%)
* 1976- Gerald Ford, Ronald Reagan
Dave Weigel|1.3.08 @ 10:02PM|#
Crimethink - Paul Simon later said he wished he'd dropped out after Iowa and let his votes go to Gephardt, who could have actually won the 1988 election (unlike Dukakis). If Thompson keeps third, stays in the race, and ends up nominating Huck, I imagine he'll be writing identical memoirs in 10 years...
|1.3.08 @ 10:03PM|#
Its worth noting the system was so different in '64 Goldwater didn't even win any primaries at all. It was a brokered convention, and he led a revolt of early 60s conservatives (today they would be called libertarians) to secure the nomination against the establishment wing of the Republican Party.
|1.3.08 @ 10:03PM|#
Anderson Cooper and his wacky magic pie chart hologram. Thank Zeus I watched this stoned...
javier|1.3.08 @ 10:04PM|#
In my precinct (north bettendorf) it was:
romney - 113
huck - 66
mccain - 40
paul - 22
thompson - 16
guiliani 14
|1.3.08 @ 10:05PM|#
Hey 10%+ Is pretty awesome for a candidate polling within the
margin of error in Iowa just 2 months ago.
What if Huckabee and Romney got more votes, such that 10% 3rd
place. Is that really better? The % vote count for Paul is high,
the movement is off the ground, libertarianism is off the ropes -
and that is really what matters to me anyway.
Don't get down anyone - RP is doing great by any reasonable
standards. Who would have thought that Ron Paul - an Anti-War,
bring all the troops home, end the IRS, 9/11=blowback candidate
could get the support he got...He is beating RG!
RP is winning imo.
Shane|1.3.08 @ 10:05PM|#
Anyone else notice the difference between the way the Dems count their votes and the way the Repubs count theirs? One goes by percents, cutoffs and second rounds and second choices, while the other is just a straight tally.
|1.3.08 @ 10:05PM|#
Cesar | January 3, 2008, 9:57pm | #
Does anyone know where Barry Goldwater placed in the Iowa Caucuses back in 1964? I can't find anything so far.
They didn't exist until 1972.
Not exactly true. They have existed for over a century but it
wasn't until 1972 that they became "First in the Nation" and took
on the significance they have today.
As for Goldwater, he is one of three Republian candidates who lost
in New Hampshire and went on to gain the national Nomination.
robc|1.3.08 @ 10:05PM|#
So, depending on how you count "uncommitted", and having seen Brewster's Millions, I count it as a place, then Clinton finished 4th (or 3rd for those who only count "people") in 1992.
|1.3.08 @ 10:06PM|#
Double digits is definitely a victory for Paul. Paul, Huckabee,
Thompson and (to a lesser degree) McCain are outperforming polls;
Romney and Guiliani are underperforming.
Regardless of where he places, Paul beating Guiliani is sweet.
|1.3.08 @ 10:07PM|#
The DVD Bible ad came on here in my Salt Lake City hotel room, too. The guy's voice reminds me of David Alan Grier.
|1.3.08 @ 10:07PM|#
there's a good side to this...
John found it.
I would also like to nominate -
John McCain coming in behind Thompson means he doesn't get as much
good press coming in to NH
|1.3.08 @ 10:08PM|#
I don't think Uncommitted should count as a place (and I don't understand why it's even an allowed vote). That year's caucus was pretty unreliable anyway, given that there was a candidate from Iowa in the race.
rho|1.3.08 @ 10:08PM|#
Never let it be said I'm not humble. The polls in Iowa seemed to
be not terribly out of line with results.
Good things and bad things:
Good: watch the polls, and use them as a tool. Or the Paul campaign
can start spending that scratch on GOTV tactics.
Bad: Ron Paul is running, at best, at the Libertarian Party's
wettest dreams, i.e. 10%. That's not good. In fact it's very bad,
as a "spoiler" candidates can, at best, expect to get only crumbs
and scraps, and Ron Paul doesn't seem interested in consolation
prizes.
|1.3.08 @ 10:09PM|#
Taktix wrote: "Anderson Cooper and his wacky magic pie chart
hologram."
I keep expecting him to scream, "I am Beowulf!!!"
rho|1.3.08 @ 10:12PM|#
Eric Dondero, was it your post when you declared you were so offended by Ron Paul that you would replace him as TX14's Representative? Hmm?
|1.3.08 @ 10:12PM|#
RP finished third in Johnson County, which only has 75%
reporting. Most of the counties that have already fully reported
are ones where he did awful.
::crosses fingers::
robc|1.3.08 @ 10:16PM|#
crimethink,
Independents:
Paul 29%
McCain 23
Romney 19
Huckabee 17
Thompson 8
Guiliani 1
Ali|1.3.08 @ 10:17PM|#
9.9%, why the hell is he going down. Damn you Huckabee. May God damn you! Oh, sorry, you're the preacher.
|1.3.08 @ 10:17PM|#
Edwards is telling sob stories to a "Steelworkers for Edwards" crowd ... even if my guy didn't win I can always favor the sweet, sweet defeat of a protectionist fuckwit like him.
|1.3.08 @ 10:17PM|#
John Edwards is on tv, and as usually he makes me want to vomit
with his demagougic pseudo-populist bullshit.
I'm just imagining how much longer it will be until he says "Every
man a king, but no one wears a crown."
robc|1.3.08 @ 10:18PM|#
Angry at Bush administration:
Paul 54%
McCain 13
Romney 10
Huckabee 10
Thompson 9
Guiliani 1
Hunter 1
|1.3.08 @ 10:18PM|#
Paul also came within 1% of Huck in the vital "Pakistan doesn't matter" bloc, 38% - 37%.
Ali|1.3.08 @ 10:18PM|#
Cesar- why the sad story he's telling now? And it's taking soooooo loooong...
robc|1.3.08 @ 10:19PM|#
The Indy/Angry numbers suggest that Guiliani cannot win the
general.
Okay, duh.
|1.3.08 @ 10:19PM|#
WTF!!!
40% of voters aged 18 to 29 voted for Huckabee!?
Are you F'ing KIDDING me?!
|1.3.08 @ 10:19PM|#
Edwards is telling sob stories to a "Steelworkers for Edwards" crowd ... even if my guy didn't win I can always favor the sweet, sweet defeat of a protectionist fuckwit like him.
Hear hear. The only people lower than dominionist evangelical
Christians in my book are economically illiterate
protectionists.
Hooter_McBoob|1.3.08 @ 10:20PM|#
I think Edwards is genuine with his beliefs, and I think a TON of people like what he says. I've no idea why he isn't more popular among democrats.
|1.3.08 @ 10:20PM|#
Yeah, Edwards, I'm 26 years old and I really wish I could be working in a steel mill everyday like my grandparents instead of an air-conditioned office in front of a computer! Or not.
Hooter_McBoob|1.3.08 @ 10:21PM|#
::robc | January 3, 2008, 10:19pm | #
Huckabee kicked ass in the GOP women's vote.:::
Chicks dig a man who smiles easy and talks smooth.
KJ|1.3.08 @ 10:22PM|#
I agree with McBoob. I believe he really believes what he discusses. I wish less people were so cynical about his views.
|1.3.08 @ 10:23PM|#
Well, at least he beat Giuliani....
But considering the state went in a big way for Huckabee, I can't
say that I see it as representative of most of the country. Right
away that tells you Iowa isn't exactly libertarian country, or
anyone else's, except maybe idiots....
Bingo|1.3.08 @ 10:23PM|#
Cesar:
for what it's worth Huckabee is economically illiterate...
but he plays the guitar and Jesus talks to him so he's got my
vote!
SIV|1.3.08 @ 10:23PM|#
I'm honing my earlier prediction. The Hillary campaign will deny
any coordination when the "Barack Hussein Obama was my coke dealer"
woman comes forward on the eve of the SC Primary.
They will panic and not wait until early February.
|1.3.08 @ 10:23PM|#
But considering the state went in a big way for Huckabee, I
can't say that I see it as representative of most of the country.
Right away that tells you Iowa isn't exactly libertarian country,
or anyone else's, except maybe idiots....
QTMFT...
|1.3.08 @ 10:24PM|#
Seriously guys. Nobody has addressed how Fred Thompson GOT 3RD PLACE. HOW DID THAT HAPPEN? He was supposed to do badly and drop out. WTF?! 3RD? FRED GOT 3RD?! What the heck?
|1.3.08 @ 10:24PM|#
Evidently "change" is the big winner tonight. The homeless vote could be more important than prior election years.
Hooter_McBoob|1.3.08 @ 10:24PM|#
::Hear hear. The only people lower than dominionist evangelical
Christians in my book are economically illiterate
protectionists.::
They judge the economy through anecdotes. They watch Lou Dobbs.
They see "outsourcing" and fear it. What they don't realize is that
what they want, what they vote for, will simply increase corruption
at the top and misery among the common man.
|1.3.08 @ 10:24PM|#
Muscatine Co. (home of Davenport) has only 12% of precincts reporting, and Paul has 12%.
Hooter_McBoob|1.3.08 @ 10:26PM|#
::Seriously guys. Nobody has addressed how Fred Thompson GOT 3RD
PLACE. HOW DID THAT HAPPEN? He was supposed to do badly and drop
out. WTF?! 3RD? FRED GOT 3RD?! What the heck?::
He didn't. looks like Mr. Surge is in third.
|1.3.08 @ 10:26PM|#
Cesar:
for what it's worth Huckabee is economically illiterate...
Yeah, hes John Edwards except born-again. Which makes him just
plain evil. Like Palpatine or something.
I'll vote even for Hilldog before him.
KJ|1.3.08 @ 10:26PM|#
You're not alone Adamness. I don't know how the lazy Thompson got so far ahead either. It boggles my mind, but you just have to remember the huge bloc of social conservatives in Iowa and his record against abortion and social issues.
Eric Dondero|1.3.08 @ 10:26PM|#
Ron Paul is dropping below 10% now.
Other news, McCain has pulled ahead of Thompson by a hair.
jimmydageek|1.3.08 @ 10:27PM|#
Seriously guys. Nobody has addressed how Fred Thompson GOT 3RD PLACE. HOW DID THAT HAPPEN? He was supposed to do badly and drop out. WTF?! 3RD? FRED GOT 3RD?! What the heck?
One word: Sanjaya?
Hooter_McBoob|1.3.08 @ 10:27PM|#
How could Hillary possibly be happy with what happened? How is it possibly a "great night" for her? How in the hell is she an agent of "change" and why, oh why, would anyone vote for her?
Hooter_McBoob|1.3.08 @ 10:28PM|#
::You're not alone Adamness. I don't know how the lazy Thompson
got so far ahead either. It boggles my mind, but you just have to
remember the huge bloc of social conservatives in Iowa and his
record against abortion and social issues.:::
AND HE HAS A RED PICKUP TRUCK!
|1.3.08 @ 10:28PM|#
Huckabee's lead is slowly but surely shrinking. I don't think there's any way Mitt can catch him, but it's not going to be as big a victory as it looked earlier.
toddb|1.3.08 @ 10:28PM|#
I'm sadly not surprised by the Thompson finish...MSM has been pumping him like crazy the last 3 or 4 days...
Ali|1.3.08 @ 10:29PM|#
@ 78%: The McThompons are at 13% a piece. Paul at 10%. Not bad,
was hoping for a miracle to take Paul across the
McThompson's.
I am new to this, but is it possible that the GOP is delay good
Paul results? Or that is it? I amstill hoping for some of those
20%.
|1.3.08 @ 10:30PM|#
I think Hillary's pleased with the Democratic vs. Republican turnout. And it is a pretty big difference. Things look pretty bleak for the GOP tonight. Ideal time to nominate a more-of-the-same nobody like Rudy McRompson!
Eric Dondero|1.3.08 @ 10:30PM|#
You could look at this as a victory for Mainstream libertarians. Libertarian-leaner Fred Thompson beats extremist Ron Paul, 13 to 9%.
|1.3.08 @ 10:30PM|#
I like how Clinton says that she stands for change as she's backed by Bill Clinton and the mummified corpse of Madeline Albright.
|1.3.08 @ 10:30PM|#
Is there any way Reason can make this blog so I can block
certain people from my view? In threads with this many posts, it
would really help to block out the noise.
Please, y'all genius programming folks, you're my only hope.
Yubi|1.3.08 @ 10:31PM|#
WTF!!!
40% of voters aged 18 to 29 voted for Huckabee!?
Are you F'ing KIDDING
me?!>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
thats the Iowa promise ring crowd. FUCK CORN.
|1.3.08 @ 10:31PM|#
I don't care what anyone says, I like Fred Thompson. Not as much as Paul, but hes my (distant) second choice.
BakedPenguin|1.3.08 @ 10:32PM|#
Obama's pwned HRC and Edwards. At least has a conceptual
understanding of the idea that the president's powers should be
limited.
Hooter - Fred = Social Conservative. Also, I think he got a lot of
the "ahhh... f*ck it" vote. Also, what SIV said.
Bingo|1.3.08 @ 10:32PM|#
Andy_D: someone made a firefox plugin especially for that, I forget who though...
Ali|1.3.08 @ 10:32PM|#
Is there any way Reason can make this blog so I can block
certain people from my view? In threads with this many posts, it
would really help to block out the noise.
Who do you mean? ;-) I am sure I know who you're talking about.
|1.3.08 @ 10:32PM|#
Dondero,
Considering Huckster got over a third of the vote, I don't think
you could see this as a victory for real or fake libertarians.
|1.3.08 @ 10:33PM|#
@Earache Dildero
If someone would give you a kick in the nuts, I'd consider that a
victory for civil society....
Hooter_McBoob|1.3.08 @ 10:33PM|#
::I don't care what anyone says, I like Fred Thompson. Not as
much as Paul, but hes my (distant) second choice.::
I agree, if for no other reason than he refuses to play the
game.
toddb|1.3.08 @ 10:33PM|#
I'm disappointed...was hoping for 3rd or 4th, but the worst part is that Paul will only get about what polls showed...takes the steam out of the arguments that traditional polls are missing hidden supporters, etc. or that the level of enthusiasm of his supporters will translate into over-representation at the polls...
Eric Dondero|1.3.08 @ 10:33PM|#
Fucking hell Shane! No!
McCain, is most definitely not.
There are three, and only three candidates worthy of Mainstream
libertarian support: Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson and Rudy
Giuliani.
McCain, Paul and Huckabee lean statist.
Though, at least McCain is a War Hero. I'll give him that.
Guy Montag|1.3.08 @ 10:34PM|#
I predict:
D- Obama
R- Huckabee
Really hoping that Thompson at least beats McCain, but not holding
breath.
|1.3.08 @ 10:35PM|#
I'm rarely moved by a politician's speech... but Hillary's non-concession speech is underwhelming as fuck. She is going down a laundry list of Democratic hot-button issues without any enthusiasm at all. Edwards at least seemed to care about something.
Eric Dondero|1.3.08 @ 10:35PM|#
You're right Crimethink. The fake libertarian Ron Paul placed
5th with 9%.
The libertarian-leaners, Rudy, Fred and Mitt, totaled 42%.
|1.3.08 @ 10:36PM|#
I'd like to point out that if paul gets 10% in Iowa, then he reached the top of what the polls suggested he could get, and is more than 1.5 times higher than the poll results he was getting from just last week.
Guy Montag|1.3.08 @ 10:37PM|#
Anybody saying that the RINO from NYC, the one who goes by "Rudy" has any drop of libertatian blood in him (much less Libertarian blood) needs to be fired from the Dr. Paul organization.
|1.3.08 @ 10:37PM|#
Chris Dodd is NOW dropping out of the race?
Because he "doesn't have the support."
No shit
Hooter_McBoob|1.3.08 @ 10:37PM|#
::I'm rarely moved by a politician's speech... but Hillary's
non-concession speech is underwhelming as fuck. She is going down a
laundry list of Democratic hot-button issues without any enthusiasm
at all. Edwards at least seemed to care about something.::
That's because Edwards actually cares about other people.
Ali|1.3.08 @ 10:37PM|#
Thompson is just too old for me. Call me what you want, but Obama is my distant second choice. I really really hate to see more of the same of what we had in the last 7 years. Enough is enough. Plus, Obama is said to be Muslim ;-)
|1.3.08 @ 10:37PM|#
To Hillary's credit though, it was a good move to make her speech before it could be confirmed that she came in 3rd.
bills_lip|1.3.08 @ 10:38PM|#
Every time Bill Clinton does the lip-biting thing while scanning the crowd, it makes me a bit nauseous. Or jealous. I forget which.
Bingo|1.3.08 @ 10:38PM|#
I'm so glad I have Dondero's cellphone number now, this is going to be fun. Never know when I might need to confirm its really him... what time is it out east when it's 2AM Arizona time again?
|1.3.08 @ 10:38PM|#
Anybody saying that the RINO from NYC, the one who goes by "Rudy" has any drop of libertatian blood in him (much less Libertarian blood) needs to be fired from the Dr. Paul organization.
Wow, I agree with Guy. Cheers!
Shane|1.3.08 @ 10:39PM|#
I still haven't found anything conservative about Guiliani let alone libertarian, the guy is socialist hawk who shows no respect for civil liberties. NYC knows that better than anyone.
|1.3.08 @ 10:40PM|#
What kind of libertarian is anti-gun and anti-free
speech?
The kind who gets called libertarian by Newsweek, Atlantic Monthly,
Time, US News and World Report, and Islamophobic Bedwetter
Monthly.
Ali|1.3.08 @ 10:40PM|#
Wow, I agree with Guy. Cheers!
Me too!
All-
Watch as this is probably Huck's last time as a leader at
anything.
Guy Montag|1.3.08 @ 10:40PM|#
BTW, I was expecting a much stronger showing for Dr. Paul than
has appeared sofar, especially from the gooey New Republic
article I read just before leaving work at 1600.
One question about the result: Lack of popularity or
conspiracy?
Charlie|1.3.08 @ 10:41PM|#
Well it looks like libertarian "extremist" Ron Paul beat
Dondero's "Mr. Libertarian" Giuliani... 10% to a truly pathetic 4%
for the former national frontrunner.
Of course, now that Rudy's campaign has crashed and burned, all of
a sudden Dondero considers every other Republican
candidate to be either a libertarian or
"libertarian-leaning."
Lets see... the number of Republican candidates other than Paul to
support ending war on drugs: zero
Number who oppose indefinitely imprisoning suspected "terrorists"
without charge or trial: zilch
Number who oppose torture: 0 again (McCain opposes in rhetoric
only, as evidenced by his vote on the Military Commissions
Act)
If you don't support habeas corpus, you're not a libertarian. If
you support torture, you're not a libertarian. And if you think
"political correctness" is a bigger issue than, say, the U.S.
preemptively invading and occupying third world countries, then you
are not a libertarian.
Any questions?
Someone Who Doesn\'t Want to L|1.3.08 @ 10:41PM|#
There are three, and only three candidates worthy of
Mainstream libertarian support: Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson and Rudy
Giuliani.
McCain, Paul and Huckabee lean statist.
"Freedom is about the willingness of every single human being to
cede to lawful authority."
-Rudy Giuliani
|1.3.08 @ 10:41PM|#
The kind who gets called libertarian by Newsweek, Atlantic Monthly, Time, US News and World Report, and Islamophobic Bedwetter Monthly.
You forgot Der Stürmer.
Condoleeza Rice|1.3.08 @ 10:42PM|#
***Dondero Sez:
There are three, and only three candidates worthy of Mainstream
libertarian support: Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson and Rudy
Giuliani.
***
Hhahahahahahahaah, Mitt Romney, the socially tolerant mainstream
libertarian and "federalist" who will lead us into a new age of the
finger-wagging sadist who does not support medical marijuana. The
same Mitt Romney that was the figure head for various court
challenges to Massachusett's fag marriage law (you know, the Will
of the People of that commonwealth).
Hahahaha, how's that Congressional bid for TX-14 coming along?
HAHAHAHAHA
http://www.geocities.com/modern_cincinnatus
|1.3.08 @ 10:43PM|#
One question about the result: Lack of popularity or
conspiracy?
Well, look at the candidate who won, and you tell me.
If this is representative of the rest of the country, we're beyond
fucked anyway.
Guy Montag|1.3.08 @ 10:43PM|#
I'm so glad I have Dondero's cellphone number now, this is
going to be fun. Never know when I might need to confirm its really
him... what time is it out east when it's 2AM Arizona time
again?
Earlier.
Yubi|1.3.08 @ 10:44PM|#
Anybody saying that the RINO from NYC, the one who goes by
"Rudy" has any drop of libertatian blood in him (much less
Libertarian blood) needs to be fired from the Dr. Paul
organization.
Wow, I agree with Guy.
Cheers!>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Word. The only libertarian blood Rudy "9/11" Guliani would have on
him is from my fist, when i break it over his stupid face.
Im probably on some sort of list now, right?
I
Guy Montag|1.3.08 @ 10:45PM|#
PM,
If this is representative of the rest of the country, we're
beyond fucked anyway.
Please pay attention? The whole country did not vote. Iowa had a
straw poll.
Eric Dondero|1.3.08 @ 10:45PM|#
Charlie,
Brown people aren't real people so it's okay to torture them, you
dum fuck! Brown poeples suck, bomb 'em all!!!!!!
Rudy is the only true libermainstreamtarian!!!!!
Fuck heads!
KJ|1.3.08 @ 10:47PM|#
I can't believe he just quoted Chesterton! Does he know the man's beliefs at all?
Guy Montag|1.3.08 @ 10:47PM|#
PM,
If this is representative of the rest of the country, we're
beyond fucked anyway.
Please pay attention? The whole Republic did not vote, just
Iowa.
Perhaps he will do the Dean scream thing and we won't have to worry
about him any more.
|1.3.08 @ 10:47PM|#
I fell like Huckabee is attempting to cast some weird Christian
spell on me.
Good thing I have a high Dumbass Resistance.
Hooter_McBoob|1.3.08 @ 10:47PM|#
Huckabee talking to voters reminds me of drunk me trying to pick up chicks. He's just trying so hard to be smooth that it hurts to watch.
|1.3.08 @ 10:48PM|#
I agree with KJ. Huckabee is such a good speaker, you can't discount him despite his past and the fact that he's a "born-again John Edwards." As I put it to a friend in an email, he's Greg Stillson on steroids.
Guy Montag|1.3.08 @ 10:48PM|#
As much as I may disagree with Eric, I wish whomever is impersonating him would stop and that the webmaster bans that IP.
Ali|1.3.08 @ 10:48PM|#
He just quoted the Founding Fathers, but I think he means the Founding Father!
Shane|1.3.08 @ 10:49PM|#
Giuliani: "9/11!"
Huckabee: "Jesus!"
Giuliani: "9/11!"
Huckabee: "Jesus!"
Giuliani: "9/11!"
Huckabee: "Jesus!"
ugh, i'm still in my early 20's, can someone tell me when it's time
to stop giving a shit, cause think i'm almost there.
|1.3.08 @ 10:50PM|#
I fell like Huckabee is attempting to cast some weird
Christian spell on me.
Oh? I didn't really notice. Must be that strong mental shield I
developed from a young age to protect myself from my mom's side of
the family.
Condoleeza Rice|1.3.08 @ 10:50PM|#
Don't call Eric's cellphone. You do have better things to occupy your time, right?
Hooter_McBoob|1.3.08 @ 10:50PM|#
::ugh, i'm still in my early 20's, can someone tell me when it's
time to stop giving a shit, cause think i'm almost there.::
Never.
Eric Dondero|1.3.08 @ 10:51PM|#
Ron Paul didn't always lean Statist. He was quite good Pre-9/11
in the 1990s.
And I should have said, Paul and McCain lean Statist, Huckabee is
an ultra-Statist.
Paul and McCain are 100 times better than the Huck Monster!! Sorry
for the original slight Paul and McCain supporters. It was an
insult on my part to put your guys in the same category as
Huckabee. Again, sorry.
|1.3.08 @ 10:51PM|#
I fell like Huckabee is attempting to cast some weird Christian spell on me.
Just have another bowl. Because we all know that keeps Jesus
away.
|1.3.08 @ 10:51PM|#
"McCain, Paul and Huckabee lean statist."
And Dondero leans stupid (at least wrt Paul).
Actually, he does more than lean. I think he might have fallen over
a while back.
|1.3.08 @ 10:51PM|#
Where is it saying Ron Paul is garnering 9%? Every website I look at is saying 10%.
|1.3.08 @ 10:52PM|#
Good thing I have a high Dumbass Resistance.
That may be, but I don't think you've faced a Dumbass of Huckabee's
level before.
Eric Dondero|1.3.08 @ 10:53PM|#
Please God, please, please, please, let Fred beat John McCain.
Even if it's just be .01%.
That's the only thing left on the excitement front now. 85%
precincts reporting.
Please let Fred beat McCain!!!
Guy Montag|1.3.08 @ 10:53PM|#
What kind of libertarian is anti-gun and anti-free
speech?
One from New York. Your choices are named Hillary and Rudy.
SIV|1.3.08 @ 10:53PM|#
I was hoping for a 3rd place finish for Ron Paul.
McCain's surge and Thompson's Limbaugh boosted
dead-cat bounce killed any chance for it.
Never fall for the Youth and un-polled, cellphone-only voters will
magically appear crap. They vote in smaller numbers and hew to the
same patterns as elder and land-line
voters.
Eric Dondero|1.3.08 @ 10:53PM|#
Go to Politico.com. They have the best coverage.
At 85% reporting Paul is precisely at 9.75%.
Guy Montag|1.3.08 @ 10:54PM|#
What kind of libertarian is anti-gun and anti-free
speech?
Forgot the one from Arizona, sorry.
|1.3.08 @ 10:55PM|#
Though I am no fan of Dondero, I have to agree with his assessment of Huckabee. I just watched his speech and literally felt the worst case of "heebie jeebies" I've had in many a year. The man frightens me and creeps me out more than a little.
|1.3.08 @ 10:56PM|#
Dondero,
In what way did Paul change after 9/11, that he went from being a
libertarian to leaning statist?
Surely you're not saying that opposing the Iraq war and the Patriot
act made him a statist, are you?
Eric Dondero|1.3.08 @ 10:56PM|#
Thompson is at 13.45%
McCain is at 13.14%
Super close. Goooooo Fred!!!
Guy Montag|1.3.08 @ 10:56PM|#
What happened to the Dr. Paul uts? The Sen. Kerry uts are too old now, so it could not have been them sleeping in and forgetting to vote.
Someone Who Doesn\'t Want to L|1.3.08 @ 10:56PM|#
Gene,
Here.
The commenters are rounding all fractions down when saying 9%, or
actually I think they may have just said below 10% rather than
9%.
Eric Dondero|1.3.08 @ 10:57PM|#
I am most certainly saying that Crimethink.
You cannot be a libertarian and be a defacto supporter of
Islamo-Fascism.
Guy Montag|1.3.08 @ 10:59PM|#
You cannot be a libertarian and be a defacto supporter of
Islamo-Fascism.
Or a gun-grabbing Socialist.
|1.3.08 @ 10:59PM|#
So Eric...though it is well established you are no supporter of Ron Paul (and that's putting it lightly), how do you feel about the *movement* that his campaign seems to be creating? Do you think it's a good thing or a bad thing? I'd be interested in hearing your opinion.
|1.3.08 @ 10:59PM|#
"Andy_D: someone made a firefox plugin especially for that, I
forget who though..."
Thanks for the heads up. Bingo, or anyone else who can email me a
link to such a plugin, would be greatly appreciated. This post,
unlike my others, has my real email address... so please, send me a
link to this Firefox feature... I can't seem to find it.
A tenuous thanks to anyone who does.
|1.3.08 @ 11:00PM|#
I'd say, you can't be libertarian and be anti-Second Amendment. But I'm one of those "crazy extremists".
Someone Who Doesn\'t Want to L|1.3.08 @ 11:01PM|#
OK. Watched enough of this. Time to finish the Simpsons Season 8 DVD.
Ali|1.3.08 @ 11:02PM|#
How many delegates in the country are there? RP so far getting 2 and Huck only 14.
|1.3.08 @ 11:03PM|#
Wolf Blitzer: "Ron Paul emerging with relatively good
numbers."
I agree! It might not be everything that I hoped for, but 10% in
one of the more politically hostile environments for libertarians
isn't the worst news you could get....
Guy Montag|1.3.08 @ 11:03PM|#
I am with Cesar on that one, if anybody had any doubts or gives-a-shits.
Fluffy|1.3.08 @ 11:05PM|#
Dondero, you worthless cunt. On the basis of the argument you're
offering, you can't be a libertarian unless you advocate immediate
war with EVERY NON-LIBERTARIAN NATION on the globe, i.e. every
other nation.
You are a de facto Communism supporter if you don't want immediate
war with Cuba. I guess that means you aren't a libertarian, no
matter how many times you stood out in the rain or whatever sob
story you tell.
Ali|1.3.08 @ 11:05PM|#
Winners
Huckabee--But where does he go from here? The Improv?
Thompson--still alive but at 2% in New Hampshire
Paul--double figures after every single press report stated he
couldn't win--exceed his poll average by 40% in a hostile
environment
Losers
Romney--bet the ranch on winning there
McCain--badly wanted third place
Giuliani--a humiliating 4%
Also, rumor has it that Rudy is indeed broke.
Big picture: none of the candidates up against Ron Paul is looking
good nationally. This will be a war of attrition down to the
convention. (Jim Ostrowski)
|1.3.08 @ 11:06PM|#
ON the GOP side, it's winner-take-all. So Huckster's getting
all of 'em.
No, it isn't. Reports are coming in that Paul has several delegates
(which are voted on AFTER the caucus vote). Last number I heard was
56 and that was some time ago tonight.
Charlie|1.3.08 @ 11:06PM|#
The Iraq war has been a major boon to Al Qaeda's recruitment
according to U.S. intelligence agencies. Meanwhile, the Bush
administration's financial support for the Pakistani dictator
Musharraf, to the tune of about $10 billion, has allowed him to
stifle political opposition while giving a wink and a nod to the
resurgent Taliban and Al Qaeda presence along the Pakistani border
with Afghanistan.
As the scholar Robert Pape has noted in his book Dying to
Win, the presence of U.S. troops on the Arabian peninsula has
provided the single greatest motivational tool for suicide
terrorism. Ergo, anyone who supports the war in Iraq and/or a
continued U.S. military presence in the Middle East is a de facto
supporter of "Islamo-Fascism."
|1.3.08 @ 11:06PM|#
Cesar | January 3, 2008, 10:03pm | #
Its worth noting the system was so different in '64 Goldwater
didn't even win any primaries at all. It was a brokered convention,
and he led a revolt of early 60s conservatives (today they would be
called libertarians) to secure the nomination against the
establishment wing of the Republican Party.
Wrong. Goldwater won the Illinois, Texas, Indiana, Nebraska and
California primaries. The last victory gave him the momentum to
take the convention.
In 1968, however, Humphrey won the Democratic nomination while
hardly running in the primaries at all. I don't think he carried
any. Humphrey relied on non-primary states and the support of
favorite-son candidates, and being the heir of LBJ.
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