Nick Gillespie | December 31, 2007
Newsweek's Andrew Romano has a story out about "long tail candidates" which zeroes in on Ron Paul and features some comments from yours truly and the invaluable Arnold Kling. Snippets:
Paul may still be the longest of long shots. But he's a long shot who can lure 5,000 supporters to his rallies and more than triple his entire '88 war chest in a single $6.6 million day. That's a whole new level of high-passion, low-polling politics-and in a long-tail world, others are bound to follow. "Ron Paul is the harbinger," says Nick Gillespie, editor in chief of the libertarian magazine Reason. "Just as the major entertainment companies are producing far more varied and individualized fare, I think we're going to see more and more political candidates who are more interesting in and of themselves but deliver smaller and smaller numbers."...
Over the decades, Americans have become increasingly unhappy about having to cram themselves into one of two "big box" parties. Seven of the last 10 elections were won with less than 51 percent of the vote; in three of the last four, no candidate won a majority. Today, two thirds of U.S. adults (and a full three quarters of 18- to 30-year olds) say they would consider voting for an independent candidate in the next election. The rise of Howard Dean (another anti-establishment Web phenom) and the recall of California Gov. Gray Davis mirrored this breakdown of consensus; 2008's fragmented Republican field is further proof. "The long tail is not the political center," economist Arnold Kling has said. "It is not a third party waiting to form. It is not a coalition. It is not a 'silent majority' of either the right or left. It is simply every variety of political belief that does not fit within the two major parties." As the Web allows niche voters to form communities, raise money and get heard, it's inevitable that the major-party machines will clash with-and ultimately accommodate-the individualized constituencies they're struggling to serve....
Gillespie argues the reward is a more responsive government. "Being just a Republican or just a Democrat no longer gets at what people are about," he says. "In order for a Mitt Romney to gain traction in a traditional party, he's going to have to mine the more marginal candidates for ideas and support." Paulites, take heart. Sadly, the gold standard isn't coming back. But the days of "not having the opportunity to get the message out"? Those are gone for good, too.
reason talked with Long Tail theorist Chris Anderson here. And applied the LT to beer here.
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Time for proportional representation and limited presidential roles. Hey, and may be reverse direct elections of senators. May be.
One of the interesting ideas in 'The Probability Broach' was the
idea of proxy representation; the idea that anyone could a) show up
and vote in the legislature, or b) assign their vote by proxy to a
professional representative.
I think you still would have big-government problems predicted by
public choice theory. Nonetheless, it would afford some interesting
protections, and coupled with supermajority requirements prevent a
lot of absurdities.
In a rational world, the Bhutto assasination should have been
good for at least a 10 point bump in Ron's poll numbers. What's
happening in Pakistan shows clearly that a WAR on terror is a
terrible approach to take to terror. Ron's the only candidate
saying that, although Obama comes sort of close.
Unfortunately we live in a world where "government policy" means
the madness/mass hysteria of crowds.
Ruthless,
If they find out Mussharuf had anything to do with it, then there
might be a coming around to what Ron is saying...
Ultimately, the dollar will buy 0.50 Euros if we do not change our spending habbits at the federal level. Getting the message out only works if those in power listen. Apparently, they are not.
Another thing...
Just because Ron Paul has a long tail doesn't prove or even
increase the likelihood that he can crack the Demopublican monopoly
on demogoguery.
I have a feeling that many in the long tail think the long tail consists mostly of people who believe as they do. However, many others in the long tail realize that's not the case.
Lost - -,
Bhutto herself was pro WAR on terror which is why she took the
bullets.
So whether Mushy is giving the US any bang for its buck is
irrelevant.
(Bang for the buck is the PROBLEM!)
We could just continue the Nazi State
see video proof want to arrest a presidential Candidate not out of
the question!
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=3687275197363805545&q=ralph+nader&total=556&start=430&num=10&so=0&type=search&plindex=7
I cannot imagin why anyone would vote for the war mongers that are handing our country over to the Saudi Arabia and China. We borrow money from China and Saudi Arabia every day to pay for the illegal occupation of a country. Can you imagin if any country on earth did that to us? Every man woman and child would be fighting in the streets. The media hides everything from the people. They push people like Julie-annie and now that slick snake oil salesman Huckabee. I was watching a smarmy reporter for MSNBC named David Shuster who was touting Huckabee. The entire system is rigged folks. Vote for Ron Paul cause that is the last best hope America Has for saving itself.
The main problem with the knowledge of crowds is not fear, but ignorance and apathy. How many people bother to even watch the crummy news from the MSM? Not very many if you trust their ratings, nobody reads newspapers and most people only use the internet for mindless entertainment. So if they do not hear about candidates like Ron from alternative sources the MSM will either form their opinion of him, or they will have never heard of him. Have you people even tried to talk with "normal" people about politics, not even getting into specifics? They gave me the same blank looks I had when trying to BS my way through essay tests I haven't studied for in high school, some even look so befuddled as if you asked them to recite the fundamentals of nuclear physics.
George Smith, author of The Case Against God, offers an amusing qualified endorsement of Ron Paul.
It is bad enough that people call Dr. Paul a NAZI, but saying eh
has a tail? A long one at that? UGH!
Next thing you know some crackpot will be coming up with a theory
that the Bhutto murder conspiracy would have given Dr. Paul better
poll numbers of only there were not a stronger conspiracy in
play.
I cannot imagin why anyone would vote for the war
mongers
Nor I, yet plenty of H&R commenters plan to do just that based
on RP's comments on evolution.
Nor I, yet plenty of H&R commenters plan to do just that
based on RP's comments on evolution.
Maybe Dr. Paul is right about that, thus retaining his tail?
Here's a quote from the latest Justin Raimondo commentary:
Pakistan is not now fated to fall into the hands of radical
Islamists. Such an outcome becomes more probable, however, the more
determined we are to "do something." As Dr. Paul knows from his
experience as a physician, the guiding rule of American foreign
policy should be "First, do no harm." Taking "action" - intervening
either militarily or politically - will do more harm than good. The
illusion that we can control events on the other side of the world
is a dangerous one: the sooner we get over it, the more likely we
are to stay out of trouble.
Nor I, yet plenty of H&R commenters plan to do just that
based on RP's comments on evolution.
They want to prove to Paul that War can evolve into something
better. Evolution.
So if they do not hear about candidates like Ron from
alternative sources the MSM will either form their opinion of him,
or they will have never heard of him.
Was talking with a liberal Democratic friend of mine yesterday who
had never heard of Ron Paul, and didn't have any idea of what
libertarianism was. She thought that because I was voting for a
Republican, that I must be in favor of No Child Left Behind. I had
to explain that not only did I share her desire to kill NCLB, I
wanted to fire every single employee in the federal department of
education and have them get real jobs, sell off the buildings, and
make any attempt to resurrect this bureaucracy a manditorily
impeachable offense. Sowing salt over fire-scorched ruins may have
come up in the conversation too.
Taking "action" - intervening either militarily or
politically - will do more harm than good.
While this is certainly true in some cases, it is just as certainly
false in others. The trick is knowing which is which. In Pakistan,
it may well be the case that doing nothing is the least bad
alternative, although given Pakistan's possession of nuclear
weapons and sizable activist Islamist community, this is by no
means a given.
it's inevitable that the major-party machines will clash
with-and ultimately accommodate-the individualized constituencies
they're struggling to serve.
I'm not sure whether, or why, this would happen in any kind of
reasonable time frame. These micro-consituencies are not likely to
be able to throw an election, except when they conflict with larger
chunks of the major party's base, in which case they could cost a
major party an election. It would be suicide, for example, for the
Dems to chase libertarians, as this would alienate their "socially
dependent" and organized labor base.
What about this add from Ron Paul ???
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2T-iJKwskH4
David-
"No more student visas from terrorist nations" stands against his
rhetoric of "lets talk to people, trade with them, etc" as opposed
to "bomb them and interfere with them". But I think he's trying to
appeal to a certain segment of the republican base. I do not like
it though. Otherwise it is a good ad that has a "Tancredo" feel to
it (despite the fact that I despise Tancredo).
From TheSpoof.com
Ron Paul
well positioned for the primaries, Bush threatens martial
law
Washington, DC (AP) Just days before the first primaries, President Bush used his weekly radio address to alert the country to the dangers of what he termed a "revolutionary" election, stating that it was his duty as Decider-in-Chief to determine the outcome of both parties' primaries.
snip
Meanwhile, supporters of the so called Ron Paul Revolution, who already had their panties seriously knotted over Fox News's attempt to exclude Ron Paul from a forum, immediately held peaceful protests in 300 cities. During the 36 hour long events, Ron Paul supporters used their Blackberrys to contribute over $500 Million dollars to RonPaul2008.com
The Democrats responded by circulating another petition to seek the release of the campaign staff of anti-war candidate Dennis Kucinich, whose staff and supporters are being held at Guantanamo Bay "for their own protection" according to the President.
prolefeed,
So, did you get a happy ending?
In my neighborhood I ran into a couple of enviro-chicks right after
some not-for-profit .org thing moved in. I need to go back to
mimicking the political beliefs of the hottest chick in earshot.
Launching into the sillyness of ethenol does not even get you
through the first beer.
"First, do no harm."
Nice slogan. If applied consistently, this would stop a LOT of
government action, and not just in foreign policy.
BTW, they were not the Northern Cal./Seattle Wa. type enviro-chicks, they were the DC Beltway variety. Well groomed, smelled nice, well dressed.
"First, do no harm."
Nice slogan. If applied consistently, this would stop a LOT of
government action, and not just in foreign policy.
Now we are in Star Trek territory with the Prime Directive or
something?
Now we are in Star Trek territory with the Prime Directive
or something?
Hey, why not? In a post-scarcity society (like the Federation is
presented as being), Libertarianism and Hippie Communism would be
fairly indistinguishable.
Now all we need are replicators and holodecks to complete the
obliteration of human society as we know it.
"Sadly, the gold standard isn't coming back."
Predictions are often wishes pretending to be wisdom. I don't
believe anyone who says this is actually sad. Counterfeiting, once
understood to be counterfeiting will not last. That crowds of
college students are cheering Ron Paul's desire to dismantle the
FED and holding up burning dollar bills, means far more than some
cynical fool "sadly" predicting that the counterfeiting racket is
here to stay.
If Paul doesn't make it onto the ballot, I hope the pro-liberty momentum he's generated lives on, rather than fizzles out with him. Problem is, I can't think of another single politician in America (at least higher than the level of Town Alderman) who runs as close to the Constitution as Paul does.
But, Jennifer, he does not believe in evolution. To hell with the constitution, you see without evolution we are lost as a notion!
* Insert "long tail president" versus "lotsa tail president"
joke here *
Heh, Dude, he said insert
So, did you get a happy ending?
Guy -- We had a pleasant evening. We agreed to disagree on
politics, though I think she's more inclined to listen to
libertarians, now that she's not lumping them in with Giuliani
supporters.
now that she's not lumping them in with Giuliani
supporters.
Dondero spoke to her first?
The long tail effect would be even bigger in a parliamentary system. Should we expect political change in Canada soon?
"In Pakistan, it may well be the case that doing nothing is the
least bad alternative, although given Pakistan's possession of
nuclear weapons and sizable activist Islamist community, this is by
no means a given."
Funny what it takes to terrorize some people.
Nuclear weapons, regardless of who has them, don't terrorize
me.
Another thing that doesn't terrorize me is Fidel threatening to
unleash on the US all his citizens willing to get out of Cuba.
Mexicans don't bother me either.
Could it be said that the key to defeating terrorism is to not be
terrorized in the first place? Most politicians say something like
that, but they end up talking out of both sides of their
mouths.
Problem is, I can't think of another single politician in
America (at least higher than the level of Town Alderman) who runs
as close to the Constitution as Paul does.
Jennifer, according to the Republican Liberty Caucus website, Jeff
Flake and Jon Kyle (both from Arizona) have roughly the same
extremely high libertarian rating of about 90% overall that Ron
Paul enjoys. Several other members in the low 80s.
Way outnumbered by the statists, but it's not like there's nobody
on the bench for attempts to carry the libertarian message in
future elections.
Nor I, yet plenty of H&R commenters plan to do just that
based on RP's comments on evolution.
You've got to be kidding. When I was last here, Fluffy was grousing
about that, but I thought it was just because he had taken
momentary leave of his senses...I had no idea that multiple
commenters would desert Dr Paul over that.
What amazes me is that most commenters here are pro-choice and
pro-gay-marriage, and Dr Paul is on the opposite side of both those
issues...but it took a throwaway comment on his opinion of
evolution to make them stop supporting him?
prolefeed,
Flake and Kyl both support the War in Iraq and an interventionist
foreign policy in general, though. And that is a deal-breaker for
me, and probably most Paul supporters.
Actually, according to his Wikipedia article, Jeff Flake now opposes the Iraq War. Hmm, might be a possibility.
Funny what it takes to terrorize some people.
Hey, if you're not worried about nuclear weapons in the hands of
religious fanatics engaged in active hostilities with US, I guess
you're not worried about much.
Could it be said that the key to defeating terrorism is to not
be terrorized in the first place?
There's something to be said for that, especially in dealing with
all the "domestic security" folderol. Still, not being terrorized
by someone is distinct from not being actually, you know, blown up
by them. I think its possible to take action reducing the risk of
the latter without being "terrorized" by anyone.
now that she's not lumping them in with Giuliani
supporters.
Dondero spoke to her first?
Ali -- She was brought up to think that Republicans are evil, that
big government does warm and cuddly things and just needs the right
people in office, and she's been exposed to some Dondero-type
Republicans and extrapolated such scheisskopfs to everyone pulling
a Republican ticket for any reason. My brother-in-law is one such
person, though over Christmas dinner after pointing out what Ron
Paul actually stands for I convinced him that Ron Paul would be an
acceptable choice if his favorite, Romney, lost and, in a miracle
on the order of likelihood of the Virgin Birth, Ron Paul got
nominated.
My mother-in-law, who is a Democratic politician, has a sign up on
her barn: "Dysfunctional family parking only" with a Red arrow
pointing to the Republican parking and a blue arrow pointing to the
Democratic parking. When it became apparent that I was the only
libertarian at the Chistmas table, she apologized for not having
any parking reserved for me.
"I think its possible to take action reducing the risk of the
latter without being "terrorized" by anyone."
The first thing to do is ask yourself what you are doing (or your
country is doing) that would make anyone want to terrorize you (or
it).
Crime, there were several who said they would absolutely not
vote for RP based upon his evolution comments. [shakes head]
BTW, the Jefferson UTube endorsement is kind of silly but, just for
giggles......
From the Wiki entry on Jeff Flake:
Flake voted against No Child Left Behind, Sarbanes-Oxley,
Medicare Part D, Homeland Security Act[3], and the Genetic
Information Nondiscrimination Act. He joined John McCain and Jim
Kolbe in sponsoring bills to increase legal immigration and
establish a guest worker program. He has expressed interest in
abolishing the U.S. Department of Education[citation needed].
Flake initially supported the Patriot Act and the Iraq War, but
more recently has changed his position to one of cautious
opposition, including voting against appropriations for both. He
also supports ending the Cuba Trade Embargo ... "The Flake
Hour"
Rep. Flake is opposed to the current and former earmarking
processes, frequently challenging earmarks proposed by other
members of Congress. Since May 2006, he has become prominent with
the "Flake Hour," a tradition at the end of spending bill debates
in which he asks earmark sponsors to come to the House floor and
justify why "taxpayers should pay for their "pet projects."[7]
Flake issues a press release listing an "egregious earmark of the
week" every Friday.[2]
Hey, he seems teachable about interventionism, and on some issues
is clearly more libertarian than Ron Paul. Plus, much younger and
more photogenic.
What amazes me is that most commenters here are pro-choice
and pro-gay-marriage, and Dr Paul is on the opposite side of both
those issues...but it took a throwaway comment on his opinion of
evolution to make them stop supporting him?
People aren't reasonable, crimethink. They're never
reasonable...even in a forum hosted by a magazine with a name like
this one.
I mean, the audacity of a 70-odd year old man to believe something
that in all likelihood he was never taught either at home or in
school...well, now, that obviously disqualifies him to be
president.
The ability of a person to analyze information or make good
decisions is not bound up in any one issue or litmus test. I
remember clearly just a few years ago running into a college
professor (an educated man) who still for some reason
believed that HIV could not be transmitted by heterosexual sex. The
whole class in unison shouted at his folly, and he looked honestly
startled and perplexed.
He just hadn't gotten the memo.
People believe silly things for all sorts of idiosyncratic reasons.
I think it better to look at the wide angle for stuff like
this.
Good points, prolefeed. But --
They're never reasonable...even in a forum hosted by a magazine
with a name like this one.
I'm not sure if The Rules require it in such a gray area, but I'm
taking a drink just in case. Better safe than sorry.
TWC -- laughed so hard I cried over the Thomas Jefferson video. Thanks for the link!
crimethink -- I didn't post the gray area drinking rule
violation (lite beer swig for marginal cases like this?)
Or were you silently objecting to my points, and thought the
fallacy in my logic was so obvious that you didn't even need to
type your objections?
Signed, confused in the frickin' cold PacNW (on "vacation")
prolefeed,
So, did you get a happy ending?
Guy -- We had a pleasant evening. We agreed to disagree on politics, though I think she's more inclined to listen to libertarians, now that she's not lumping them in with Giuliani supporters.
Um, that was a pretty long "no" answer dude.
Ali & Prole, thanks, now, anybody know if Jeff lisped in real life?
prolefeed, I'm sorry, that was directed at Elemenope. You people all look the same to me! ;-)
TWC, I removed a bizarre reference in the WP article about which of Flake's kids was his favorite, so I wouldn't be surprised if someone speculated about that at some point!
True, and we are all dirty ne'er do wells, so I can see why you
might confuse one with another. :)
Also, LOL at ThJ vid.
The first thing to do is ask yourself what you are doing (or
your country is doing) that would make anyone want to terrorize you
(or it).
Aggression happens out in the real world, Ruthless. Not every
victim provokes the attack.
Seriously, a world where a nuclear-armed government actively
supports and has very close ties to terrorists engaged in attacks
on civilians causes you no concern?
prolefeed,
So, did you get a happy ending?
Guy -- We had a pleasant evening. We agreed to disagree on
politics, though I think she's more inclined to listen to
libertarians, now that she's not lumping them in with Giuliani
supporters.
Um, that was a pretty long "no" answer dude.
Ummm, Guy, were you asking if I scored? 'Cause I'm married, and the
person in question is my wife's cousin, and my wife was in the
room, and my kids -- yeah, yeah, standard libertarian disclaimer:
"Nothing wrong with tapping that, bystanders or no."
I gave a long answer because of considerable ambiguity about what
you meant by a "happy ending" -- as in, a petite Asian soapy
massage girl "happy ending", or ...
I should just shut up and invoke my Fifth Amendment rights now,
yeah?
Guy -- I guess this being the Long Tail thread and all, I should have seen where you may have been going with that. ;)
I have no idea what H&R is but if those self righteous pricks are going to switch their vote based on some stupid evolution comment, they have a serious mental problem if they consider themself Libertarian. If a candidate subcribes to the maxim of Libertarianism, he could be a scientologist for all I care. The maxim is "Just because you're so damn stupid that doesn't I have my life dictated to me from these criminals." Ron whether he knows it or not, adheres to that maxim, so who cares what his personal views are when his policy is a given.
What amazes me is that most commenters here are pro-choice and
pro-gay-marriage, and Dr Paul is on the opposite side of both those
issues...but it took a throwaway comment on his opinion of
evolution to make them stop supporting him?
Dear Crimethink,
A chilling observation! Sad but true!
"To argue with a man who has renounced the use and authority of
reason, and whose philosophy consists of holding humanity in
contempt, is like administering medicine to the dead, or
endeavoring to convert an atheist by scripture. Enjoy, sir, your
sensibility of feeling and reflecting. It is the perogative of the
animals. And no man will envy you those honors, in which a savage
only can be your rival and a bear your master."~ Thomas Paine to
Sir William Howe 1778
Just because you're so damn stupid that doesn't mean I should
have my life dictated to me from these criminals.
Usually my grammar only falters when talking about Huckabee, he
makes one stupid by osmosis.
"Seriously, a world where a nuclear-armed government actively
supports and has very close ties to terrorists engaged in attacks
on civilians causes you no concern?"
The thing about it, RC, is, what am I gonna do other than wear a
t-shirt that says, "I'm NOT with Stupid (as in Dubya and his
coalition partners)"?
Ruthless,
You could make a custom shirt that says "Marxism: The opiate of
dumbasses"
Ron Paul's role is clearly to provide comic relief for normal voters and an outlet for the seriously deranged.
The thing about it, RC, is, what am I gonna do other than
wear a t-shirt
You personally? Probably not much, Ruthless.
But I wasn't asking if you personally where going to go all Rambo
on the Pakistani internal security goons. I was asking more whether
you had any concerns about Islamists taking over Pakistan and
getting their hands on its nukes.
The next question is, if you are worried about it, what do you
think can or should be done? Is that still a situation where doing
nothing is the least bad alternative? It could be, but "Islamists
at war with the US get their hands on nukes" is a pretty bad
alternative to begin with, so I'd be interested to hear what we
could do to make it worse.
"I was asking more whether you had any concerns about Islamists
taking over Pakistan and getting their hands on its nukes."
Would they attack us when they knew that we could attack them in
kind?
"Seriously, a world where a nuclear-armed government actively
supports and has very close ties to terrorists engaged in attacks
on civilians causes you no concern?"
Why would the Pakistani government, even an Islamic Pakistani
government, give WMD to terrorists when they know those weapons
could be turned against themselves at some point in the future or
could be used against them for blackmailing purposes?
Nuclear arms leave fingerprints. If the terrorists used those
weapons against America, they could be traced back to Pakistan and
then Pakistan would be in a heap of trouble.
The best way to prevent terrorism against American citizens is to
stop giving the terrorists reasons to attack us which we could do
by stop meddling over there.
For good or ill, the most electorally successful libertarian-inclined folks are very religious and have pro-life positions. As a pro-choice atheist, I am still willing to vote for them. I will vote for Ron Paul if he is nominated.
"I wasn't asking if you personally where going to go all
Rambo"
RC,
What I've been trying to say to you is that you and the ignorant
majority's first instinct needs to cease being to go all
Ramboey.
Let's try that for a while and see how it works.
Where's SIV?
He said his single issue is legalizing cock-fighting.
All of us should try to confine our Ramboey tendencies to
cock-or-dog-fighting or football or rugby...
Or be in closer touch with our feminine sides.
"What are the Hit & Run drinking rules?"
As the Outback restaurant slogan goes: No rules. Just right.
Debating whether or not we should do something military about
Pakistan is like debating whether or not I should buy a Space
Shuttle--since there's no way in hell I can afford one anyway, I
simply don't care.
(Of course, for this analogy to really work you'd have to pretend
that I could have bought a Space Shuttle a few years ago,
only now I can't afford to because I wasted all my money hiring a
hitman to go beat the shit out of some guy who had absolutely
nothing to do with the people who mugged me one fine September
morning back in 2001.)
milton--
We borrow money from China and Saudi Arabia every day to pay
for the illegal occupation of a country.
No.
We give them ("easily de-valued" 'pieces of paper').
See FDR in '33...he stole 40% of all 'assets' in the US in
one day!
I will vote for Ron Paul if he is nominated.--Rimafax
Yeah, and if it turns out that the moon is made of green cheese,
I'll eat some.
Going out on limbs is fun.
And if Edward ever makes a worthwile comment, I'll go to a rainbow party with Herrick And His Balls.
Dr. Pauls support here in NH is very strong, he is set up to surprise if not win in my estimate. NH gets very little federal money so Dr. Pauls desire to eliminate the income tax resonates very strongly here.
RC Dean,
Hasn't Iraq taught you anything? Didn't the Israeli
"anti-Hezbollah" war teach you anything?
You just assume that "doing something" can only make the situation
better, when "doing something" can quite plainly make it worse.
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