McCain/Petraeus '08

David Weigel | September 11, 2007

John McCain's campaign has made it known that they want their candidate to own the Iraq War, betting that Republican voters still support it (true) and that the surge will show obvious progress (somewhat true), turning public opinion around (not yet). Marc Ambinder has a McCain memo that proves it:

The first phase of our September strategy is to take ownership of the surge and demonstrate again that John McCain is the only candidate running for President who is prepared to be Commander-in-Chief from day one.

Stephen Hayes, owner of the eldery-war-lovin'-gentleman beat, skips along the campaign trail with McCain and sees this in action.

Since President Bush announced the surge, that criticism has mainly come from Democrats. In January, Senator John Edwards dismissed the surge as "The McCain Doctrine." Says McCain: "I think that I'm beginning to be flattered by Senator Edwards's characterization of the strategy."

McCain no longer regards his position on Iraq as a liability, "because the facts on the ground are better." And as long as that trend continues, he plans to press his advantage on Iraq by calling out Republicans he regards as soft on the surge.

Hayes thinks the surge has taken McCain off the ropes. I look at this the way Christopher Orr looked at the Democratic field, which believes - utterly mistakenly - that Hillary Clinton is the most anti-war Democrat.

The Democratic electorate, which favors withdrawal, probably isn't choosing which candidate it likes on the basis of policy positions; it's ascribing its favored policy positions to the candidates it already likes on the basis of name recognition and other unrelated attributes. That is to say, rather than the candidates' popularity being a function of their positions, their perceived positions are, at this point at least, a function of their popularity.

The same thing will happen in the GOP. Outside of some pockets in New Hampshire and military areas those voters don't like McCain anymore - he's been tenderized by CFR, immigration, years of talk radio pummelling. If those voters want to support the surge it doesn't follow that they'll flow back to McCain, as long as Fred Thompson and Mike Huckabee et al don't come out against the surge. They like these guys better than McCain; they'll readily assign these candidates their own positions. McCain has risen over the last week in national polls, but only about as much as Fred Thompson.

The other question: Does this make McCain a more attractive general election candidate? If you're a Republican donor or voter, do you want to head into November with some wiggle room in case the surge peters out in March and we still have an overtaxed military presence heading into election day? Or do you want to go all in with John?

And if you're undecided should you still buy Matt Welch's McCain book? Absolutely.

Comments

|9.11.07 @ 9:47AM|#

I don't think what McCain is saying now necessarily matters for next year. Any Republican candidate is going to have to own the war. If the Republican candidate comes out against the war next summer, enough Republican voters will be angry about it and stay home in protest that the candidate will be screwed. All of the Republican Candidates, if they want to win in November have to support the war. Basically, if things do not look better by this time next year, the Republicans are screwed in November. If the war goes well and troop levels really do come down significantly next summer and it looks like the thing is going to end soon and end well, then the Democrats are screwed because everyone of them has to come out for immediate withdrawl or their base will abandon them. Politically, the Democrats have a direct interest in the US loosing in Iraq over the next few months and loosing badly. I actually sympathize with them. It is a lousy position to be in.

|9.11.07 @ 9:55AM|#

Another Republican Congressman has jumped ship - some guy from upstate New York. As some of us predicted, the end of this latest Friedman Unit is producing Republican defections.

The moment it looks like there are enough Republicans joining the unified Dems on ending the war, the party will flip-flop wholesale, the Pelosi/Reid/Murtha/Kerry position will start being described as "bipartisan," the GOP candidates will all come aboard, and Republican voters will follow.

|9.11.07 @ 10:02AM|#

And Ron Paul will win the presidency!

|9.11.07 @ 10:51AM|#

Who believes Hillary is the most anti-war Democrat? I've never heard this one.

|9.11.07 @ 11:20AM|#

It's interesting that while Petraeus was beating his chest yesterday about the success of the surge, polls in Iraq show how the Iraqis feel the surge has made matters worse and how they want us out of there.

Matt Welch|9.11.07 @ 11:23AM|#

I think this makes sense as strategy. At some point, the Republicans who are flocking to Giuliani because he sounds like some kind of post-9/11 badass will hear a barrage of criticism about how Rudy don't know jack about foreign policy. That leaves the "pro-war foreign policy is my main issue" crowd ripe for McCain's picking, considering the other competition out there. Those otherwise reluctanct to embrace the guy might have to grudgingly concede that, well, he's Serious about the War.

To watch this dynamic play out in real time, just compare the long-form journalism written about McCain in The National Review from early 2000 and early 2007.

|9.11.07 @ 11:26AM|#

"If the Republican candidate comes out against the war next summer, enough Republican voters will be angry about it and stay home in protest that the candidate will be screwed."

I don't think you have to worry about that. If Hillary is the Democratic candidate, Republicans will show up en masse just to keep the bitch from returning to the White House.

|9.11.07 @ 11:30AM|#

"I think this makes sense as strategy. At some point, the Republicans who are flocking to Giuliani because he sounds like some kind of post-9/11 badass will hear a barrage of criticism about how Rudy don't know jack about foreign policy. That leaves the "pro-war foreign policy is my main issue" crowd ripe for McCain's picking, considering the other competition out there."

I think Thompson will get that support for one reason, McCain's age.

|9.11.07 @ 2:40PM|#

Matt Welch,

You know who criticizes Rudolph Guiliani's foreign policy credentials?

Traitors, cowards, and anti-Americans.

Why should we listen to them?

K.|9.11.07 @ 3:17PM|#

You know who criticizes Rudolph Guiliani's foreign policy credentials?

Traitors, cowards, and anti-Americans.

Why should we listen to them?

We shouldn't listen to them because we're afraid of FOX-style ad hominem attacks? Is that the answer to your question?