Anyone But Hillary

David Weigel | January 17, 2007

Rasmussen Reports has been polling the Democratic field, and today they measure the strength of Hillary Clinton's presidential bid: She's down to 22 percent support in the primary and fading fast.

That's one poll with a sizable (5 percent) margin of error, but it's an incredibly weak showing for Clinton.

Illinois Senator Barack Obama (D) formally announced his plans to run for President and instantly finds himself near the top of the heap. A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of 401 Likely Democratic Primary Voters finds that 22% favor New York Senator Hillary Clinton (D) while 21% prefer Obama. Obama has consistently been in second place in several Rasmussen Reports polls, but this is the first time he has been in a virtual tie with the former First Lady.

John Edwards polls at 15 percent; he's up 6 since the last poll, Obama's up 4. Hillary is down 12 points from the last poll in early December.

How sad is this for Clinton? In 1999 we (blessedly) didn't start the presidential race this early, but Texas Gov. George Bush was coming in around 40 percent support in Republican primary polls. A poll taken by Opinion Research Corporation (CNN's pollster, now that Gallup's split off from the network) in Jan 6-11, 1999, had Bush at 40 percent, Elizabeth Dole at 22 percent, Jack Kemp at 8, and a bunch of single-digiters including Dan Quayle and some guy named John McCain. Most Republicans had heard of Bush (or thought he was his dad) and kind of liked him. Every Democrat knows who Hillary Clinton is, and almost 4/5 of them are looking for another candidate. It's a blow to the vaunted "support the war, don't support Grand Theft Auto" playbook.

The punchline: This poll was taken before Obama announced he was in the race.

Comments

|1.17.07 @ 1:45PM|#

I'm beginning to think that HRC made a tactical error when she parachuted into New York in WJBC's final term. Had she moved to her native Illinois she might have been able to win high office there. That she didn't may have to do with two factors: First, the election cycle didn't favor it. NY was going to have an open Senate seat in 2000. Illinois wouldn't until 2004. Second, Hil may not have been as welcome if she planned on running for Governor in 2002. There were Dem pols lined up to replace George Ryan.

Mrs. Clinton may also be experiencing some anti-New Yorkism by the rest of the country. Mind you, even though I'm a native New Yorker I well realize that NY pols, even many of their Republicans, tend to be more left-of-center than the rest of the country. I'd expect former Gov. George Pataki to flop in the GOP primaries, and the Rudy Guiliani boomlet to collapse once the rank and file learn his positions on abortion and gay rights.

Kevin

|1.17.07 @ 1:46PM|#

Dear Hillary Clinton,

Boom! Headshot!

Sincerely,

--Lord Duppy

|1.17.07 @ 1:48PM|#

On second thought, now someone out there thinks that was a threat and I'm gonna get pwnt by a SWAT team. Oh noes.

|1.17.07 @ 2:04PM|#

Latest IA Poll:
12/18 - 12/20
600 likely voters
MOE +/- 4%

Dems:
Edwards 22%
Obama 22%
Vilsack 12%
Clinton 10%

Reps:
McCain 27%
Giuliani 26%
Romney 9%

Plus some interesting match-up numbers.

http://www.kcci.com/politics/10585392/detail.html

Latest NH Poll:
12/18 -12/22
600 likely voters
MOE +/- 4%

Dems:
Clinton 22%
Obama 21%
Edwards 16%

Reps:
Giuliani 26%
McCain 25%
Romney 10%

Money quote: "There are a lot of independents. These are the same people who loathe Bush, loathe the Iraq war," said Del Ali, president of Research 2000. "But deep down, they don't like Hillary Clinton."

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,238636,00.html

HRC is down big from the last polls.

|1.17.07 @ 2:10PM|#

Meanwhile...

During the first hundred hours of legislation for the new Congress led by our own Nancy Pelosi a new minimum wage was passed. The only problem is that American Samoa was exempted. Why would we exempt Samoa? Maybe it is because StarKist Tuna pays their employees about $3 per hour. StarKist Tuna is owned by Del Monte Corporation headquartered in Pelosi's district and her husband Paul Pelosi has $17 million worth of shares.

And we thought that Nancy Pelosi was looking out for the "little" people.

|1.17.07 @ 2:15PM|#

MM, A link would be nice.

|1.17.07 @ 2:18PM|#

We all know Hillary is a lesbian. Is Obama gay?

Bhh|1.17.07 @ 2:21PM|#

A lesiban who had an affair with Vince Foster, don't forget. I assume the republicans are going to work the metrosexual angle with Obama. They always do.

A theory of mine: I think the reason they hated Bill Clinton so much was because his cartoonish heterosexuality made it impossible to imply that he had teh gay.

Man, what an ugly field. Good to see Hillary going down though.

|1.17.07 @ 2:23PM|#

MM,

American Samoa was already exempt from fedreal minimum wage (as it has been for the last 12 years). Wage floors in American Samoa are set by the US Dept of Labor.

So, the current exemption was not lifted as opposed to this being a new exemption.

|1.17.07 @ 2:27PM|#

Iraq will be the deciding factor among the Democratic candidates in 2008, and Hillary and Edwards were both flat wrong on the subject. More and more it looks like it will be Al Gore's election to lose, please see www.minor-ripper.blogspot.com

|1.17.07 @ 2:28PM|#

Well i'm glad Hillary Clinton is going down in the polls, i believe she would be even worse for this country than George Bush.

The person that needs to win in '08 is Ron Paul

|1.17.07 @ 2:28PM|#

MM

If Pelosi specifically exempted American Samoa,she was looking out for the "little people" - the workers of American Samoa will not lose their jobs as a result of that awful law.

Now, one can argue that by passing the law at all, Pelosi is not looking out for the "little people", and I would concur. But an exemption to the law is a good thing. In fact, if they could exempt everywhere from that law, it would be even better.

|1.17.07 @ 2:32PM|#

I don't have too much of a problem with a woman running the country. But not that twunt.

|1.17.07 @ 2:32PM|#

Breaking news:

Constitution now excludes California Governor Schwarzenegger from Presidiential bid!

|1.17.07 @ 2:43PM|#

"A lesiban who had an affair with Vince Foster, don't forget."

A nymphomaniac lesbian whose coldness drove her husband to have an affair, AND who had an affair with Vince Foster.

|1.17.07 @ 2:45PM|#

Hillary has product differentiation problems

at the end of the day, she's an imperial establishment lapdog

our halls of power are already well stocked with imperial establishment lapdogs

unless her campaign starts doing something to stand out from the crowd, her candidacy is DOA

suggestions: deficit spending, the war on drugs, military spending, too high prison population, heavy handed police tactics, illegal immigration, stewardship of the dollar

|1.17.07 @ 2:45PM|#

"American Samoa was already exempt from fedreal minimum wage (as it has been for the last 12 years). Wage floors in American Samoa are set by the US Dept of Labor.

So, the current exemption was not lifted as opposed to this being a new exemption."

I don't want to just reflexively dismiss anything Republicans say, de stijl, but they just make so damn tempting.

Remember the ethics reform that the Senate Democrats were-going-to-have-killed? I wonder what the shills are going to pimp next.

Hi, John.

|1.17.07 @ 2:46PM|#

Back to the original topic, I commented months ago that the "Hillary is inevitable" meme was a figment of the Republican imagination.

Shaved Hillary|1.17.07 @ 2:47PM|#

I have not yet begun to fright.

|1.17.07 @ 2:58PM|#

By the time 2008 rolls around Hillary will have been circling the American Presidency like a hungry lion eyeing a hunk of horse meat for almost twenty years. Is it possible that we're just a little tired of her? After all these years of being told (mostly by our beloved media) that it is her destiny to become our first female president, perhaps people are thinking "Gawd, is she still hanging around?" At this point it's about as exciting as the release of a new Madonna album.

|1.17.07 @ 3:17PM|#

By the time 2008 rolls abound, Democratic primary voters will make up their minds based on who did the best job during the primary campaign, and who effectively communicated a message that appealed to them.

Maybe it will be Hillary, maybe it won't. The fact that Republican political activists have spent so many years drawing horns and pitchforks on every picture they can find of here isn't really going to matter.

|1.17.07 @ 3:51PM|#

It could be that her biggest obstacle is that most voters see something oxymoronic about having a squaw-in-chief.

:-|1.17.07 @ 4:36PM|#

Yeah, but if she wins we'll have a bush in the White House.

|1.17.07 @ 4:54PM|#

Good to see Hillary going down though.

That is an image I never want in my head ever again, thank you very much.

|1.17.07 @ 4:58PM|#

Hi, John.

joe, that's the first thing I thought too, since John himself has quit talking about that.

Never mind the fact that the Democrats have already removed the American Samoa exemption from the law, which means Pelosi might have been playing BS politics on the part of Del Monte, but it's a moot issue now.

|1.17.07 @ 6:22PM|#

I never took the Clinton candidacy very seriously. She's not a good general election candidate to begin with, and I think it would take some planets aligning and the Federation violating the Prime Directive for her to even do well in the primaries. I don't see the hype on her being any MSM plot. Or an attempt to foist a bogeyman on the more conservative types by the GOP. Nah, the media just likes to focus its attention on the fewest number of people possible. Laziness, not politics, is the sin of the press. . .and of its customers.

My observation is that the pre-anointed rarely do well in these sorts of competitive events. I'd love to take this all the way and say that Paul will somehow win in a Ventura-style campaign, but that ain't gonna happen either.

|1.17.07 @ 7:08PM|#

I never thought Hilly would go anywhere, either.

Partly because throughout her life she's always had everything given to her on a silver platter and she simply wouldn't be able to handle the knock-down, drag-out fight of a presidential race.

The other reason is because she reminds too many men of their ex-wives.

|1.17.07 @ 7:34PM|#

I can not imagine Hillery Clinton president of the USA and commander and cheif of the Military as she has always said that she loaths the Millitary.

|1.18.07 @ 9:49AM|#

"Partly because throughout her life she's always had everything given to her on a silver platter and she simply wouldn't be able to handle the knock-down, drag-out fight of a presidential race."

Uh, yeah. That whole 1990s thing was a such a cakewalk for her. And saving her husband's candidacy after the Jennifer Flowers story broke - no effort required there.

I've heard a lot of stupid things said about Mrs. Clinton, but the idea that she's never had to take a punch ranks right up there.

|1.19.07 @ 9:10AM|#

"A nymphomaniac lesbian whose coldness drove her husband to have an affair, AND who had an affair with Vince Foster."

Wow! Maybe I will vote for her.