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Web-Allen, Ct'd...
At 97.5 percent, it's Allen by less than 5,000. But the remaining precincts are heavily black areas of Richmond, and parts of Fairfax, which is heavily Democratic. MSBNC reports that Webb staffers also say most of the 30,000+ absentee ballots are from Loudon, Fairfax, and Prince William Counties. Fairfax will deliver pretty significantly to Webb. They think Loudon and Prince William absentees will favor Webb, too, but by slighter margins.
A recount is certain, now. The only question is who will begin the recount with a lead. Webb and Allen staffers may want to think twice about which position they'd rather have. Some strategists actually say it's better to be behind in a close recount, because you can keep counting and searching for votes until you find enough to take the lead. In most states, the first recount is easy. Winning a second recount after you've been overtaken by the first one is generally quite a bit tougher.
Not exactly sure what the procedure is in Virginia after the first recount.
UPDATE: CNN and the Richmond Times Dispatch are reporting that Webb has pulled into the lead, by about 2,300 votes. The Virginia Secretary of State's Office still has Allen on top by less than 2,000. The CNN numbers show a larger total number of votes cast, so maybe they're getting info that's not making it to the website.
UPDATE II: With about 18 precincts left to report, the Secretary of State's Office now shows a less than 2,000 vote lead for Webb. Provisional and absentee ballots will be counted over the next week.
|11.7.06 @ 11:46PM|#
Radley,
It is an automatic recount if the margin is less than 0.5%; the
automatic recount would be paid by the state in this instance. If
the margin is above 0.5%, then any recount must be requested by one
of the candidates and they must in par pay for it.
|11.7.06 @ 11:49PM|#
Radley,
This might be of use:
http://leg1.state.va.us/cgi-bin/legp504.exe?000+cod+24.2-802
|11.7.06 @ 11:50PM|#
Very happy to see that it's not over yet.
Also very happy to hear about Santorum. I suppose it's too much to
hope that he will just go away now. Maybe withdraw to a life of
quiet prayerful contemplation. This sinner would sure appreciate
it.
|11.7.06 @ 11:50PM|#
11:48 PM Tuesday, November 7, 2006
F Allen Republican 1,114,969 49.47%
J H Webb Jr Democratic 1,111,806 49.33%
G G Parker Independent Green 24,907 1.11%
Total: 2,253,907
|11.7.06 @ 11:53PM|#
CNN has Webb pulling into the lead by abouot 2500. Gotta say, I hope Allen goes down hard.
thoreau|11.7.06 @ 11:55PM|#
But it isn't really a recount until the absentee ballots are
counted for the first time. So first we have to finish the first
count, then hold a recount.
This is going to be messy. Here's hoping that, one way or another,
one of the parties picks up enough seats to render Virginia
irrelevant to the question of who controls the Senate. Oh, it will
still be a highly contested recount, but not nearly as severe as it
will be if VA decides all.
|11.7.06 @ 11:57PM|#
Okay, so maybe my stick a for in Webb comment on the other thread was a bit premature... :)
|11.8.06 @ 12:00AM|#
Here's hoping that, one way or another, one of the parties
picks up enough seats to render Virginia irrelevant to the question
of who controls the Senate.
There's no way the Dems can control the Senate without VA - there
just isn't another race they can pick off at this point. What's
worse is they must not only get this one but also MT and MO, and MO
isn't looking good right now (though it is early and I have no idea
about the Dem/GOP breakdown of what has been counted so far).
|11.8.06 @ 12:01AM|#
Some strategists actually say it's better to be behind in a close recount, because you can keep counting and searching for votes until you find enough to take the lead.
Just ask Christine Gregoire in WA. She demanded three recounts
(magically finding new uncounted ballots each time) until she wins
the governorship by less than a thousand votes, then stops. The
whole thing stank to high heaven.
|11.8.06 @ 12:04AM|#
Brian Courts,
I am hearing that many of the urban areas of Missouri have not
reported yet.
|11.8.06 @ 12:07AM|#
Say what one will about Santorum (and I am certainly not in agreement with him on many issues), but he did concede graciously.
|11.8.06 @ 12:08AM|#
"(though it is early and I have no idea about the Dem/GOP
breakdown of what has been counted so far)"
I've been listening to St. Louis radio coverage, and it sounds like
the precincts yet to report are disproportionately
urban/black/liberal. That race should tighten up over the next hour
or two, just like VA and TN are.
ian|11.8.06 @ 12:09AM|#
" she wins the governorship by less than a thousand votes, then
stops."
who would demand a recount after they were ahead??
|11.8.06 @ 12:10AM|#
12:06 AM Wednesday, November 8, 2006
G F Allen Republican 1,141,753 49.44%
J H Webb Jr Democratic 1,139,885 49.36%
G G Parker Independent Green 25,604 1.11%
Write Ins 2,270 0.10%
A difference of 1,868 votes.
Total: 2,309,512
|11.8.06 @ 12:13AM|#
Per CNN
Virginia Senate
Updated: 12:09 a.m. ET
Democratic Webb
1,143,144
Republican Allen
(Incumbent)
1,140,879
|11.8.06 @ 12:13AM|#
Lost,
I'm getting these from the VA website:
http://sbe.virginiainteractive.org/index.htm
|11.8.06 @ 12:16AM|#
Lost,
Does CNN get its numbers independently of the main VA election
office? That is, from the precincts themselves?
|11.8.06 @ 12:19AM|#
Wow - wouldn't it be great if it didn't matter who was in the
lead going into the first recount? Or the second recount? Or how
hard it is to come back after being overtaken in a recount? I mean,
it shouldn't matter, right? Math is math. Just count 'em up. Count
'em up again to be sure. Jebus, elections are such a mess.
Yes, I know. Water's wet. Sky's blue.
|11.8.06 @ 12:25AM|#
"The third set of vote returns come from the vote tallies done by local officials. The local figures become more complete as more precincts report vote returns. The county or township vote is put into statistical models, and EMR makes estimates and projections using those models. In addition, CNN will be monitoring the Web sites of the Secretaries of State offices to help analyze the outcome of early voting and absentee voting. "
|11.8.06 @ 12:28AM|#
Now both NYT and the Commonwealth have Webb ahead.
J H Webb Jr Democratic 1,148,750 49.44%
G F Allen Republican 1,146,952 49.36%
|11.8.06 @ 12:28AM|#
Webb is now in the lead:
12:26 AM Wednesday, November 8, 2006
Precincts Reporting: 2425 of 2443 (99.26%)
J H Webb Jr Democratic 1,148,750 49.44%
G F Allen Republican 1,146,952 49.36%
G G Parker Independent Green 25,719 1.11%
Write Ins 2,294 0.10%
Total: 2,323,715
Paul|11.8.06 @ 12:32AM|#
Update: CNN reports that the Secretary of States numbers may be inverted...
|11.8.06 @ 12:41AM|#
Just ask Christine Gregoire in WA. She demanded three
recounts (magically finding new uncounted ballots each time) until
she wins the governorship by less than a thousand votes, then
stops. The whole thing stank to high heaven.
Yeah, but Rossi was a jackass, so it's not that bad.
|11.8.06 @ 12:42AM|#
Looks like Missouri's gotten interesting
Missouri Senate
Updated: 12:40 a.m. ET
Democratic McCaskill
754,879
Republican Talent
(Incumbent)
753,698
|11.8.06 @ 12:47AM|#
TN is over, MT looks over, and VA won't be over for days at least - Missouri is now the one to follow. McCaskill is catching up and it looks like she'll continue to do so as urban precincts report.
|11.8.06 @ 12:52AM|#
The official MO page has Talent (R) up by 3% with about 70% of precincts reporting (and still predominantly urban precincts yet to report, including essentially all of KC and some of STL). Incidentally, the libertarian candidate has about 2.5% of the vote. This one could potentially be just as close as VA.
Paul|11.8.06 @ 12:52AM|#
Lost in translation:
I slammed that post in literally as I heard it on CNN- so that was
uttered literally seconds before the timestamp on my post. My
understanding is that the narrow lead attributed to Webb may not be
true. But these were CNN Blitzer and co rumours flying around the
screen. We know how that goes.
|11.8.06 @ 12:53AM|#
man the next few days are going to test the new reason server
when the recounts start in virginia, especially if mcCaskill
wins.
Well here's to paying more taxes. Cheers.
|11.8.06 @ 12:55AM|#
Paul,
Ok, well we'll find out who's lawyers can dig up the most votes in
the following few days.
Its fun that the most contested district is literally steps away
from all the DC political punditry. We'll all hate virginia before
its all over.
|11.8.06 @ 12:56AM|#
zeno,
I just wish Bush was roast duck, preferably stuffed, with
hollandaise sauce.
|11.8.06 @ 1:02AM|#
Another update at the MO govt page now has 75% reporting with
Talent ahead by 2.6% and closing.
http://www.sos.mo.gov/enrweb/statewideresults.asp?eid=189
Also, St. Louis Cardinals rule!!!
|11.8.06 @ 1:07AM|#
CNN now was McCaskill ahead by 14000 (49-48) with 80% reporting... Things seem to be falling the Dems way in the Senate after all, but yeah, not before a long battle of recounts in VA.
|11.8.06 @ 1:18AM|#
Heh. Best comment over at Tradesports regarding the GOP meltdown, "Cheney needs to shoot someone."
|11.8.06 @ 1:20AM|#
man the next few days are going to test the new reason
server when the recounts start in virginia,
Man, hasn't it been nice to just post stuff, right away when you
think of it, and have it appear....right away? I repeat my
appreciation and thanks for the upgrades....they were very timely,
guys.
|11.8.06 @ 1:58AM|#
Brain Courts,
McCaskill has ~25,000 vote lead now.
___________________________
Virginia:
01:56 AM Wednesday, November 8, 2006
Precincts Reporting: 2433 of 2443 (99.59%)
J H Webb Jr Democratic 1,162,004 49.50%
G F Allen Republican 1,157,259 49.30%
G G Parker Independent Green 25,968 1.11%
Write Ins 2,310 0.10%
Total: 2,347,541
|11.8.06 @ 1:59AM|#
STL radio is currently broadcasting McCaskill's victory speech,
although as far as I know Talent hasn't conceded anything.
McCaskill's up by about 1.5% with close to 90% reporting, and I
think the remainders are still predominantly urban. She'll
definitely end up ahead, and maybe far enough ahead that Talent
won't mess with a recount.
So if that holds and MT holds, the recount in VA will decide if the
dems control the senate as well as the house.
|11.8.06 @ 2:17AM|#
Talent has conceded, Tester's lead is holding, and CNN now shows Webb up by 12,000 votes. Divided government on the horizon...
|11.8.06 @ 2:28AM|#
Ah, "divided government"... are there any more beautiful words in the English language?
|11.8.06 @ 3:04AM|#
Webb's up by almost 12,000 votes. A little more, and there's no
automatic recount. There's little chance that Allen can make that
up even if he does get a recount.
McCaskill's up by more than 40,000 and Missouri's been
called.
Tester's up by 7,000 but there's a quarter of the state left to
count.
|11.8.06 @ 9:24AM|#
As we all know by now, the threshold in Virginia is 1%, not .5%.
Or even 0.05%. Unless something dramatic happens with the absentee
ballots, there will be a recount.
"Just ask Christine Gregoire in WA. She demanded three recounts
(magically finding new uncounted ballots each time)"
Were there uncounted ballots, or not? The answer is yes, there were
ballots that were cast that were not counted. How can you possibly
complain about fixing that?
|11.8.06 @ 9:47AM|#
joe,
As I understand it, they can ask for a recount if it is under 1%;
but they have to shell out money unless it is under 0.5% (it is
only when it is under 0.5% that an automatic recount occurs). So
the Allen camp has to aks itself whether it could make up gap
represented by say a (and this is just a hypothetical) 0.67% lead
by Webb. If the canvassing that they do doesn't indicate that a
dramatic shift will occur, thye may just concede instead of
spending the money on a recount.
|11.8.06 @ 9:52AM|#
Anyway, right now it looks like Webb has a steady lead of about 0.3%, so an automatic recount is the most likely outcome once the counting has ended.
|11.8.06 @ 10:03AM|#
Thank you for the clarification, Zeno.
Your standard screw-ups, like those in Washington state, are only
going to get you a few hundred votes, maybe a couple thousand at
the absolute most.
There would have to be some serious irregularities for a recount to
produce a net change of 12,000+ votes.
|11.8.06 @ 10:19AM|#
joe,
I would say that barring some very serious tabulation errors, etc.
that Webb is the next Senator from Virginia. Anyway, according to
the Virginia webpage I have been sourcing there are now four
precincts left to report.
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