David Weigel | November 3, 2006
The
New York Times exclusive about captured Iraqi documents put
online by the government is getting some mighty weak pushback from
Iraq war defenders. At the same time, the story doesn't seem all
that damning. The gist:
...in recent weeks, the site has posted some documents that weapons experts say are a danger themselves: detailed accounts of Iraq’s secret nuclear research before the 1991 Persian Gulf war. The documents, the experts say, constitute a basic guide to building an atom bomb.
In other words, it contains the information you could read in The Progressive 25 years ago. But the pro-war spin is that the Times just proved Iraq was looking at nuclear technology before the 2003 invasion. Again, something we knew for about 22 years. We can ignore that argument.
What grabs me is that the online document archive is the same one that puzzled me six months ago, when I reviewed two books by bloggers and surveyed the state of blogs.
[Rep. Peter] Hoekstra, the chairman of the Select House Intelligence Committee and a vocal supporter of the Iraq war, wanted to attach jumper cables to the debate over weapons of mass destruction. Three years had passed since weapons inspectors, following Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld’s directions, had failed to find deadly ordnance “in the area around Tikrit and Baghdad and east, west, south and north somewhat.” Hoekstra’s committee had a stash of declassified documents from before the war, and no one was translating them; since the WMD debate was basically over, there wasn’t much interest in what Saddam’s inner circle used to bluster about. But if these documents could be publicized, there would be a chance for war supporters to argue anew that the invasion was justified. Now, Hoekstra told Marcus, was the time to “unleash the power of the Net on these 55,000 boxes of documents to see exactly what went on.” Bloggers could translate the documents themselves, or at least pass around information and rumors about what the papers contained. If the intelligence community wasn’t interested, Hoekstra could put the papers online and “let the blogosphere go!”
In other words, if it wasn't for the Republican chairman of the Intelligence committee trying to re-re-re-re-write the history of the Iraq war, using bloggers as dupes, this stuff never would have come online. The atom bomb plan would have stayed in some archive alongside the Ark of the Covenant. I'm assuming the atom bomb plan isn't even a big deal, but keep in mind that Republicans like Hoekstra and future President Duncan Hunter consider every leak of intelligence - or criticism of the war plan - as an in-kind contribution to the Islamoterrorfascists. There's a reap/sow thing going on here.
One of the Count Floyd campaign's attacks on the Democratic party is that a Democratic House majority would install Alcee Hastings, a former Florida judge who was impeached, as the new leader of the House Intelligence Committee. At this point that'd be a welcome change, if it would rid of us of jokers like Hoekstra.
(UPDATE: If it's not clear here, I should point out that the documents do not suggest Iraq was reconstituting its nuke program in 2002-2003. Quite the opposite.)
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". . . or at least pass around information and rumors about what
the papers contained."
Dude pretty much nailed the blogosphere right there.
10:30am I can't really read arabic or anything but look at this
interesting diagram. Probably a nuclear weapon of some sort.
10:45am My readers tell me that is a picture of a sump pump.
We all know that Iraq did not have a WMD program, was no danger
to anyone and that any ideas to the contrary were made up by Bush
to get us into a war. How could there possibly have been any
information of any value in those documents? I mean seriously? Did
the U.S. spike the documents with fake ones? If Iraq had this
information, I guess we should take it on Weigal's good word that
they never would have given it or sold it to anyone? There is some
interesting stuff in this article.
"Among the dozens of documents in English were Iraqi reports
written in the 1990's and in 2002 for United Nations inspectors in
charge of making sure Iraq abandoned its unconventional arms
programs after the Persian Gulf war. Experts say that at the time,
Mr. Hussein's scientists were on the verge of building an atom
bomb, as little as a year away."
But Saddam was never a danger and there was no reason to ever fear
him ever restarting the "nonexistent" WMD programs. Basically the
Times is admitting that Saddam was very close to building a bomb
but we should trust them and Weigal and believe that Iraq was not
going to reconstitute its program. Out of the goodness of their
hearts I guess.
There's a bit of history on this topic here.
http://www.atomicarchive.com/Docs/Deterrence/index.shtml
I particularly like Bohr's letter on the topic.
Nations will get the Atomic Bomb if it is a high enough priority.
The technical aspects of the project are not great enough to stop
them in the long run.
Basically the Times is admitting that Saddam was very close
to building a bomb but we should trust them and Weigal and believe
that Iraq was not going to reconstitute its program.
No, the Times is admitting that Saddam had widely available, basic
design plans for a bomb. Every single investigation has concluded
that Iraq didn't have the ability to reconstitute its program. But
you're welcome to trust, uh, whoever it is exactly you're trusting,
to come to a completely different conclusion.
"No, the Times is admitting that Saddam had widely available,
basic design plans for a bomb. Every single investigation has
concluded that Iraq didn't have the ability to reconstitute its
program."
Which part of "could have a bomb within a year" is so difficult to
understand? Further, if what you are saying is true, and these
plans really are "widely available", then how is putting them on
the internet doing any harm or any sort of a story? You can't have
it both ways.
Breathtaking ability to uncover the obvious, John. You might
remember what bought about the collapse of....damn, I cant remember
every damn thing for EVERYBODY- the BNL bank, which fowarded 3
billion (in US taxpayer funds) to Hussien from a US branch, came
about because, while inventorying what Iraq was buying in the US
with some of the money, with the connivance of Rumsfeld types, was
stuff for making- an atomic bomb. Thats why the auditor rang the
alarm bells. All forgotten now of course. A chap who writes
financial analysis for The Economist (a publication sadly lacking
in the Moonie credentials that would give it probity in predictable
Johns world) wrote a very detailed book on the subject, which got
wierder & wierder as he followed the money. Sorry, all, it was
a good 15 years ago at least. "Tentacles"? Damme, im gettin friggin
old. Big, thick hardcover, extensivly footnoted & referenced.
Many of our current crop of incompetant war criminals cross the
stage.
If we hung these guys, we wouldnt have them coming back every so
often...
John, you are completely full of shit.
From Wikipedia
On September 30, 2004, the ISG released the Duelfer Report, its
final report on Iraq's WMD programs. The main points of the report
are as follows:
Iraq's main goal was to end sanctions while preserving the
capability to reconstitute WMD production.
Iraq's WMD programs had decayed significantly since the end of the
first Gulf War.
No senior Iraqi official interviewed by the ISG believed that
Saddam had forsaken WMD forever.
Iraq had no deployable WMD of any kind as of March 2003 and had no
production since 1991.
The ISG judged that in March 2003, Iraq would have had the ability
to produce large quantities of Sulfur Mustard in 3-6 months, and
large quantities of nerve agent in 2 years.
There was no proof of any biological weapons stocks since
1991.
Iraq's nuclear program was terminated in 1991, at which point
micrograms of enriched uranium had been produced from a single test
gas centrifuge.
Iraq had intended to restart all banned weapons programs as soon as
multilateral sanctions against it had been dropped, a prospect that
the Iraqi government saw coming soon.
Smuggling was used by Iraq to rebuild as much of its WMD program as
could be hidden from U.N. weapons inspectors.
Iraq had an effective system for the procurement of items banned by
sanctions.
Until March 2003, Saddam Hussein convinced his top military
commanders that Iraq did indeed possess WMD that could be used
against any U.S. invasion force, in order to prevent a coup over
the prospects of fighting the U.S.-led Coalition without these
weapons.
Iraq used procurement contracts allowed under the Oil for Food
program to buy influence among U.N. Security Council member states
including France, China, and Russia, as well as dozens of prominent
journalists and anti-sanctions activists.
"The former Regime had no formal written strategy or plan for the
revival of WMD after sanctions. Neither was there an identifiable
group of WMD policy makers or planners separate from Saddam.
Instead, his lieutenants understood WMD revival was his goal from
their long association with Saddam and his infrequent, but firm,
verbal comments and directions to them."
"Iran was the pre-eminent motivator of this policy. All senior
level Iraqi officials considered Iran to be Iraq's principal enemy
in the region. The wish to balance Israel and acquire status and
influence in the Arab world were also considerations, but
secondary."
Which part of "could have a bomb within a year" is so
difficult to understand?
That's "within a year" of the Persian Gulf War. In 1991. No
investigation has ever concluded that he was a year away from a
bomb any time after that. It's as simple as that, really.
One of two things are true, either they didn't have the knowledge or they did. If they didn't, then releasing the documents is not damaging. If they did, then they were a threat to reconstitute their WMD programs once the sanctions fell apart. It can't be both. It is funny how people get one thing in their head and there is no debasing it. Trying to convince reasonites that Saddam was a threat is like trying to convince an evangelical that man did not walk with the dinosaurs. There is no hope, even if they come to believe other myths like this one that if true completely contradict the first myth. Welcome to the politics of the personal.
Trying to convince reasonites that Saddam was a threat is
like trying to convince an evangelical that man did not walk with
the dinosaurs. There is no hope, even if they come to believe other
myths like this one that if true completely contradict the first
myth.
John, this is a terrible analogy, and it's ironic coming from you.
Evangelicals believe things despite a lack of evidence. You believe
that Sadaam was a threat, but there is no evidence to support it.
Even the fewer and fewer people who still support the invasion have
stopped justifying it by saying that Sadaam was a threat. Why?
Because there is no evidence that he was.
The author of that book I mentioned found various minutes &
other papers that stated Cheney et al felt free to pass along
various bits of nuke bomb hardware to Hussien because they thought
Iraqis were too stupid to actually build a bomb. While I think that
take by the now VP to be incredibly stupid, the fact is Hussien was
far far away from a actual bomb. Because he inspired such terror
among his scientists (this partner in freedom, this client, this
ally in the region) his own scientists lied thru thier teeth about
progress, faked results, doctored tests......nah. He wasnt a year
away from a atom bomb. He was on time w/ the poison gas, tho- back
when he was the Reagan/Bush1(therefore) YOUR friend &
ally.
Hey kids: how much you wanna bet John could have come up with all
sorts of excuses to arm Hussien, back when?
I would suggest, John, given your persuasion, you start to look at
these guys in the WH a problem. Who are we arming today who will be
your boogieman tommorrow?
"Which part of "could have a bomb within a year" is so difficult
to understand?"
The part where you left out "...if he had sufficient quantities of
enriched uranium," which he did not have, could not obtain, and
could not manufacture.
'If the intelligence community wasn't interested, Hoekstra could
put the papers online and "let the blogosphere go!"'
What makes this an especially brilliant concept is the track record
the Repubulicans and Iraq hawks have of comparing what intelligence
professionals have to say about Iraqi WMDs, vs. what movement
conservatives enlisted in reappraisals of the information the
intelligence professionals studied have to say.
I'm just dying to find out what the right blogosphere comes up with
when they review the primary source information on the
abortion/breast cancer link.
""One of two things are true, either they didn't have the
knowledge or they did."""
Or maybe they only had some of, but not all the knowledge. It's not
a black or white issue.
Besides John, I didn't think you were a big believer of the NY
Times. Maybe I have you confused with someone else.
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