The Alternet Web site prints a story from the Tucson
Weekly, a somewhat
heartening exposition on the continuing size and prominence of
the "underground" economy -- the wealth-creating human actions that
slip under the radar of statisticians and tax collectors. An
excerpt:
While economists have long estimated that the U.S. underground
economy equals about 10 percent of the gross domestic product
(GDP), there are reasons to believe the number may be larger.
According to a recent International Monetary Fund survey of 21
countries, the shadow economy has been growing for 30 years – the
fastest in the 1990s – doubling from less than 10 percent of the
GDP in 1970 to 20 percent or more by 2000.
"In the United States, for example, the shadow economy doubled from 4 percent of GDP in 1970 to 9 percent in 2000," according to IMF.
But the Internal Revenue Service is taking a dim view. The IRS recently estimated that the federal government is losing $195 billion per year in revenue due to underground activity – both legal and illegal. In addition, it estimates the underground economy is anywhere from 3 to 40 percent of the above ground economy.
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|1.9.03 @ 3:56AM|#
"anywhere from 3 to 40 percent of the above ground economy"
WOW! That reaaaaly narrows that down doesn't it...!?
|1.9.03 @ 3:56AM|#
"anywhere from 3 to 40 percent of the above ground economy"
WOW! That reaaaaly narrows that down doesn't it...!?
|1.9.03 @ 4:15AM|#
Well yes, 3 to 40 percent, with a 99.999999999999999999999999%
degree of certainty.
|1.9.03 @ 4:30AM|#
By definition, the "underground" economy is unmeasured by government bureaucrats. If it was known and measured, it would cease to be underground. To make guesses as to the size of the underground economy is laughably futile.
|1.9.03 @ 5:30AM|#
I wonder - how much of this is drugs alone?
|1.9.03 @ 6:03AM|#
Kirk - probably somewhere between 0 and 100 percent of that 3 to 40 percent.
|1.9.03 @ 6:46AM|#
Brian, that's not "heartening." I mean, it's heartening to know that people will still engage in acts regardless of what federal bureaucrats tell them, but it's not heartening that the shadow economy is that large, or that it has to be. An underground economy is NOT efficient, and not true capitalism, because of the difficulty in enforcing contracts and property rights. Legality is very useful for capitalism. See Hernando DeSoto on it.
I believe that people's preferences are likely to remain stable. Thus, any growth in the shadow economy is because of more heavy-handed government interference, and thus not a cause for celebration.
Phil Dennison|1.9.03 @ 7:44AM|#
" The IRS recently estimated that the federal government is losing $195 billion per year in revenue due to underground activity ? both legal and illegal."
Of course, another way to write that sentence would be, "Individuals participated in $195 billion in economic activity without the government getting a piece of the action." The government doesn't "lose" money, because it doesn't earn money to begin with. They take it from people who do earn it.
Jim|1.10.03 @ 1:09AM|#
There seems to be some contradiction in this... 'both legal and illegal' underground economy... if it's legal, how is it underground? I suppose the IRS is pissed off about the loss of garage sale income. Ironically a growth in this type of economic activity may also be a bad sign, as people are forced to sell what they own and/or buy other people's used things to make up for lost income due to economic recession.
|1.10.03 @ 1:16AM|#
How much could the legal part of it add up to? Garage sales and paying kids to shovel snow isn't that much, I don't think. Unless there's something I'm missing.
Franklin Harris|1.10.03 @ 1:38AM|#
It's like that line from the first "Naked Gun" movie: "Doctors say that Nordberg has a 50-50 chance of living, though there's only a 10 percent chance of that."
JD Weiner|1.10.03 @ 1:49AM|#
Jim,
Regarding "legal but underground", they may be drawing a distinction between activities that are in se illegal (eg, dealing heroin) and those which are legal but unreported (eg, mowing my neighbor's lawn and not reporting the income so I don't pay taxes on it). Just a guess.
Henry|1.10.03 @ 3:08AM|#
And to think, that $195 billion lost to the underground economy is only about half of the money that's wasted on tax preparation, tax lawyers, CPA's and the paychecks of the IRS.
Lesley Stevens|1.10.03 @ 8:45AM|#
Some portion of that (perhaps a large portion) is unreported tips from waitressing, bartending, cab driving, etc.
Malcolm Everett|2.3.03 @ 7:58AM|#
Alert !
Pass it on....
Malcolm Everett|2.3.03 @ 8:11AM|#
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|2.3.03 @ 12:31PM|#
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