China Derangement Syndrome

Once again, an economic yellow peril is exaggerated.

The 1979 book, Japan As Number One: Lessons for America, by East Asia scholar Ezra Vogel stoked fears that the United States was about to be outcompeted by the land of the rising sun. And why not? The United States had just suffered through a decade of stagflation and was about to enter what was then the worst recession since the Great Depression. By the late ‘80s, the case seemed ironclad. “I don't mean to be an alarmist, but I get the uneasy feeling that America is history,” wrote Robert Kuttner, then the economics correspondent for The New Republic, in the Los Angeles Times in May 1988. Kuttner supplied evidence for his concern: “The total value of stocks listed on the Tokyo stock exchange is now $3.54 trillion dollars, compared to $2.34 trillion for the New York Stock Exchange.”

In his 1988 book, Trading Places: How We Are Giving Our Future to Japan and How to Reclaim It, former Reagan administration trade negotiator Clyde Prestowitz warned, “The power behind the Japanese juggernaut is much greater than most Americans suspect, and the juggernaut cannot stop of its own volition, for Japan has created a kind of automatic wealth machine, perhaps the first since King Midas.” (I confess that I was a producer for the national weekly PBS television program American Interests at the time on which we regularly featured Japan alarmists.)

Two decades later, we know that the panic over Japanese economic competition was greatly exaggerated. Japan is not Number One and in fact as of last year it became Number Three, behind China.

Twenty-five years ago, what the Japanophobes were worried about were the differential economic growth rates of the United States versus Japan. At times in the 1980s, Japan’s GDP was growing at nearly 10 percent per year whereas the GDP in the U.S. was growing at a merely respectable 4 percent per year. (All figures are unadjusted for inflation.) In 1988, Japan’s GDP was $3 trillion and the U.S. GDP was about $5 trillion. If Japan’s economy continued to grow at 10 percent annually and the U.S. grew only at 4 percent, Japan’s GDP would have exceeded that of the U.S. in just 10 years.

Instead, the Japanese financial bubble burst. In 2011, Japan’s GDP in current dollars is $5.5 trillion whereas U.S. GDP is nearly $15 trillion. Per capita GDP (adjusted for purchasing power parity) for Japan is $34,000 while the figure is $46,000 for Americans. Japan has suffered through essentially two decades of stagflation and no one is any longer recommending that the U.S. adopt Japanese style top-down industrial policy as an economic panacea.

Now comes China. “We are getting our clock cleaned by Chinese state capitalism,” wrote Robert Kuttner, now editor of The American Prospect, earlier this year at The Huffington Post. “The U.S. could lose its status as the world’s biggest economic power within five years,” reported The Daily Mail in April. The Mail article was based on calculations released by the International Monetary Fund projecting that total Chinese GDP will surpass U.S. GDP by 2016 on a purchasing power parity basis.

Can that be? China’s total GDP is around $6 trillion today. Assuming 10 percent GDP growth for the next 20 years, China’s GDP would rise to $40 trillion. If the U.S. economy grew at say, 3 percent per year, total GDP would be $27 trillion. Back in 2007, before the financial crisis, the investment bank Goldman Sachs issued a report [PDF] that projected that Chinese GDP would be $26 trillion in 2030 compared to $23 trillion for the U.S. It bears noting that current Chinese purchasing power parity per capita is about $6,000 compared to $46,000 for Americans.

But it is unlikely that China’s economy can sustain 10 percent economic growth for two more decades. Economic history suggests that once countries catch up with leading economies in terms of technologies and business management, growth slows down. In which case, China’s growth might slow down to a mere 5 percent. Assuming sustained respective 5 percent and 3 percent growth rates for China and the U.S. for two decades, China’s total GDP would reach $16 trillion, not $34 trillion. In 30 years, it would grow to $26 trillion, by which time U.S. GDP would be $36 trillion. In 40 years, China’s GDP would $42 trillion and U.S. GDP would be $49 trillion. In 50 years, China’s GDP would finally surpass that of the U.S. reaching $69 trillion compared to $66 trillion.

Anyone who thinks that they know what the purchasing power parity might be between the two countries by 2060 is seriously deluded. These kinds of calculations can only provide rough scenarios for the economic future.

As the recent history of Japan shows, it is possible to adopt economic policies that would cause our economy to stagnate for decades. In which case, China’s GDP may well surpass ours sooner rather than later. 

On the other hand, China has picked most of the low-hanging fruit, economically speaking. Future productivity increases will not come from merely copying technologies developed in other advanced countries. In addition, growth depends on the kind of innovative management that can only thrive in open societies. Unless China makes the transition to an open society, its future is not growth, but stagnation. If it does make the transition, then China will not be a rival, but a partner. 

Ronald Bailey is Reason magazine's science correspondent. His book Liberation Biology: The Scientific and Moral Case for the Biotech Revolution is now available from Prometheus Books.

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  • LOLbertarian||

    Dude, this is way off base. Just read this book, it will open your eyes: http://www.amazon.com/Coming-W.....294&sr=8-1

  • ||

    LOL

    We just have to tell the Japanese that it wasn't REALLY a dolphin and a whale that dropped those atomic bombs, and they'll back down.

  • LOLbertarian||

    Just to clear the air, I posted that book as a joke; note the publish date of 1992. It's a shining example of the 80s/90s jap scare though, and highly instructive in that regard.

  • Realist||

    Wrong "Yellow"!

  • ||

    His latest book, called "The Next 100 Years" predicts a war in a which an Anglosphere-Eastern European Alliance side fights a Turkey/Islamic nations-Japan side with hypersonic aircraft and suits of powered armor.

    Book is entertaining as hell, but anyone who takes it as a serious prediction needs there head examined.

  • ||

    No, it BUGS we'll fight when we soldiers in powered suits. Jeez, doesn't anybody read Heinlein anymore?
    btw - not "there", but "their".

  • ||

    GAAAHH! "when we HAVE soldiers..."

  • ||

    Joez Law.

  • Nah||

    Hopefully that will teach you not to be a pedantic douchebag.

  • Paul Krugman||

    No, it BUGS we'll fight

    please please please

  • Zuo||

    HAI. American attitudes towards East Asia are comically stupid. China BELONGS ahead of the United States. If the ROC government ruled the mainland, this would be totally obvious. The Chinese unnecessarily handicap themselves with their foolish method of governance. The United States historically hasn't been quite as foolish, but now it is. Even more so.

    Japan is a superior country to the United States as well, but it simply lacks the population and turf to outdo a country as ginormous as the United States on the stats table. It is a testament to Japan that the continually beat the gaijin at their own game. That they have a larger economy than any European country - a place that has been trading internationally and benefitting from imperialist schemes for CENTURIES demonstrates the ability. Japan leads the United States markedly in the important fields of robotics and space technology.

    The EEC has had a larger economy than the US since the 1980s. For economic purposes, it is one unit. Why don't these American phobics have a problem with that? Let me take a stab at it: yellow peril.

  • DJF||

    Dude, if you want to attack the "gaijin" for being racist, its best not to start out with a couple of paragraphs declaring the superiority of the Chinese and Japanese.

  • ||

    Yeah, it kind of backfired, for me.

    I harbored no racism towards the Chinese or Japanese. But then I read his post. Now I am starting to think they ARE the yellow menace.

  • Dude||

    I would start out by not calling somebody "Dude."

  • Fist of Etiquette||

    The Chinaman is not the issue here, Dude.

  • moop||

    been living in china for over 2 years now. ugh... most of them really do feel themselves superior or have an inferiority complex. never have i met a group of people more self-obsessed with their own country

  • Eugenick||

    It turns out that the East Asians really are superior to Whites - at least in terms of IQ. While they appear to lack the creativity of Whites, they seem to run and maintain their societies far better than us.

    This is why the territories with the highest economic freedom on Earth (Hong Kong & Singapore) are also the ones with the highest average IQ, and both ruled by the Chinese elites.

    Even Mainland China itself, with its long-term focus on infrastructure (which will be a net loss in the short term - and definitely not something a private firm would have invested in - but a net gain in the long term by increasing the economic growth rate) and growth, seems to be better run than the US. At least some libertarians feel more free in China than in the US:

    http://www.youtube.com/user/Ksabrs45

  • Colonel_Angus||

    "important fields of robotics and space technology"

    Yah, sooo relevant.

  • ||

    Bedebedebede. Hi Buck!

  • Nah||

    and tentacle porn.

  • Realist||

    Many good points.

  • ||

    So China's economy one day 50 years form now gets bigger then US...at which point both of us will probably be dead.

    What then?

    Does the US explode itself with indignation?

    Who the fuck cares which country has the largest GDP cock?

    Why does it even matter?

    Speaking of cocks my European cock will always be bigger then your Asian cock.

    So HA!

  • Zuo||

    Why does it matter? It DOESN'T. China is historically a prosperous country, with many resources and innovation. And it's population dwarfs North America's. That is why it belongs ahead of the United States on the GDP charts.

    Japan will (maybe not with the likes of the current US government) perpetually remain behind the US in the GDP charts. Doesn't change the fact that Nippon is superior.

    So we're in full agreement about GDP cocks. For human cocks, maybe not... cut/uncut is more important than size.

  • Almanian||

    Your story has grown tiresome.

  • sevo||

    "China is historically a prosperous country,"
    Compared to, say, Zimbabwe.

  • BakedPenguin||

    Zuo, see a therapist. For your views on women, if nothing else.

  • Zuo||

    ??? Sure you don't have me confused with somebody?

  • BakedPenguin||

    I might just have a sarcasm meter malfunction on a couple comments you've made.

  • sevo||

    I doubt it.

  • cynical||

    No, I'm pretty sure he has actual pussyphobia. Probably a closet case.

  • k2000k||

    I'll tell you why we don't worry about the EEC. Because the EEC isn't a cohesive entity, despite all the to do by Eurocrat officials. I could take the economies of Canada, Mexico, and US, which are in a free trade agreement called NAFTA, and guess what? The total GDP of NAFTA is larger than the EEC.

  • ||

    Perhaps they should form a Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere.

  • ||

    Fuck it lets just call it the Pacific Ocean Trade Organization (POTO) and have unregulated free and open trade between every county that touches the Pacific Ocean.

  • Zuo||

    Fuckin A!

  • A Serious Man||

    Too soon?

  • LOLbertarian||

    Just so everyone's aware, my posting of that book was meant as parody - note that it was written in 1992; a good example of the ridiculous japan-scare. Also, you're wrong about the EEC - it didn't trump the US economy until the 2004 expansion. In fact, during a good portion of the 1980s the EEC stagnated.

  • Achtung Coma Baby||

    Oh, I get it.

    It's like how they replaced Mr. Miyagi with Mr. Han in the 2010 remake.

  • The Truth||

    Wait, what?

  • Growth is Unsustainabe||

    "The Problem of Growth" series, a capstone formulation of why our societal structure is unsustainable, how rhizome presents a solution, and how to implement it:

    Part 1: Hierarchy Must Grow, and is Therefore Unsustainable
    Part 2: Hierarchy is the Result of Dependency
    Part 3: Building an Alternative to Hierarchy: Rhizome
    Part 4: Implementing Rhizome at the Personal Level
    Part 5: Implementing Rhizome at the Community Level

    What is Rhizome?
    Jeff Vail | January 28, 2008
    http://www.jeffvail.net/2007/0.....izome.html

  • White Indian||

    For the Lumpentarian knaves who think anybody who critiques civilization is a "mass murderer" (LOL!), attorney Jeff Vail has done a great job of addressing the problems and presenting solutions.

    And to the other Lumpentarians halfwits who spout off at anybody who critiques a quite unfree capitalist system must necessarily be involved in a conspiracy to initiate aggression against you; well...show me where.

    To the few real thinkers, watcha think?

  • ||

    HEY YA HEY YA HEY HA WHITE INDIAN HEAP BIG TROLL

  • Gojira (formerly Jim)||

    *sigh* Just when I think I'm mature enough not to laugh out loud at racist jokes, I blow it, and have to go back to "start".

  • Gojira||

    You stole my handle cunt face!!

  • ||

    Excellent :)

  • GILMORE||

    uh,

    wtf is a lumpentarian?

    I may not be "real thinker" material, cause I have no fuckin idea what you're saying.

    re: China needing 30 more years to compare plausibly with the west is maybe more easy to talk about.

    How about a) percentage of the pop still living in subsistance conditions, and b) .... uh, they just built their *first* aircraft carrier? SCARY WAREY!!

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/worl.....c-14470882

    I mean, ok, it means they're *getting there*...eventually.... but "rulers of the global economy and militarily unstoppable"?... not so much. They got issues like anyone else at their phase of development. Every now and then they'll show that they can shoot down a satellite and shit, and blow some horns about their coming triumphialism... but they were barely able to throw down the olympics. I mean, oK, india will fuck it up worse... I'm just saying.

    FWIW - Ron, maybe you should run the #s with US at 2% GDP vs. theirs 6%. Just to sensitivity test/reality check. 2% is a challenge for us at the moment.

    Also, I am happy to see that someone else already made the Pee Pee in Coke comment. it is a apropos joke to make.

    Japan, meh. They be demographically pretty flatlinin for the future. I think there's definitely a possibility of continued dominance of Anime and cool Vending machines.

  • k2000k||

    China built their first *super carrier*, the US has 11 I believe, moreover China doesn't have the infrastrcuture that goes into a carrier group which consists of dozens of support shis such as destroyers, smaller carriers, submarines and the like. Most of the weaponry they have been developing is simply an attempt to counter our overwhelming military superiority.

  • GILMORE||

    simply a superficial attempt...maybe.

    And the assumption its meant to counter the US is a presumption. It's probably more about regional influence than taking on the USA at some point, which is just conjecture based on..I don know, some kind of pissing contest.

  • Zuo||

    Carriers are giant floating phalluses. Anti-ship missiles, of the kind China already has, nullify them pretty quickly. The US never shuts the fuck up about how great their carrier groups are, yet they haven't been legitly tested since the 1940s. And in various war games, countries as inconsequential as Canada have humiliated them by sneaking through the "cover" and popping a carrier with a sub attack. Carriers are really only good for floating around air forces to do strikes on impotent lands who have no credible air forces or navies of their own.

  • ||

    Good luck finding a carrier that's floating without a full compliment of AA destroyers, guided missile cruisers, and frigates.
    You don't think that the DoD constantly upgrades carriers with up-to-date guidance and AM systems?

  • Zuo||

    I'm well aware of what a carrier battle group is comprised of. They've been made a laughing stock by 2nd rate countries in war games before. And if these "up to date" AM systems are anything like the laughable bad "patriot" missiles, I don't think Burma, let alone China, need worry. The Soviets had the based interceptor missiles: s300, s400. They actually do what they are supposed to. They also had the best anti-ship missiles. China has both of these technologies. The US is too proud and stupid to buy them.

    In the absurdly unlikely event of a major war, the US military would quickly to be an expensive, antiquated, goddamn joke of a force.

    All that matters is missiles. The Sino-Soviet school of military science has always embraced and been good at missiles.

  • LOLbertarian||

    Those "anti-carrier" missles have never been flight tested. Sure you want to base an absolute claim of military superiority on them?

  • tarran||

    Actually, they have;

    I remember seeing a film taken from a U.S. SSN's periscope of a SS-N-19 blowing a cruiser in half.

  • Almanian||

    the US military would quickly to be an expensive, antiquated, goddamn joke of a force. All that matters is missiles.

    You were doing kind of OK, then veered into, "FUCK, you're stupid." So solly :(

  • come on...||

    Zuo, you seem to have yourself some really stupid opinions there. Is there some common narrative out there you base this on or did you synthesize all this?

    There is seriously no way in hell that a military leadership that has trillions at its disposal--and knows everything you think you know and much more--is going to be so easy to dismiss. Sure there's plenty of stupidity and will be plenty missteps in a real challenge, and plenty of the fighting-the-last-war mentality. But there's also plenty smart people who have been thinking far longer than you about the next war

    I would need very very good odds to bet against the US military in a real fight. Everything has weaknesses, but betting on one side doing everything right and the other doing everything wrong, is how you lose bets.

  • sevo||

    "Zuo, you seem to have yourself some really stupid opinions there."

    See below.
    This is either da truf or a serious expression of passive-agressive issues.

  • Zuo||

    Yeah, and the federal government, with its 4 TRILLION operating budget, and people who know everything you know and more, is masterfully run. None of us could ever criticize them or do better, simply because by virtue of their resources they MUST be doing what is absolutely the best possible. Yeah?

  • about that budget business||

    Yeah, and the federal government, with its 4 TRILLION operating budget, and people who know everything you know and more, is masterfully run. None of us could ever criticize them or do better, simply because by virtue of their resources they MUST be doing what is absolutely the best possible. Yeah?

    2/3 of that "budget" is simply cash collected from one group of people and mailed to another. If you want to describe that as an operating goal of letting people sit on their asses at someone else's expense, then yes you'd be hard-pressed to find someone who can outdo the feds at achieving this outcome...

    But if you're arguing something about govt versus the private sector I would note that foreign militaries are also part of the public sector too.

    False dilemma regarding the claim that noting who has thebest chance of success in a war means none could criticize the feds. Even the post you attacked contained caveats about "stupidity and missteps". It's a game of odds.

  • sevo||

    Zuo|8.23.11 @ 9:55PM|#
    "Yeah, and the federal government, with its 4 TRILLION operating budget, and people who know everything you know and more, is masterfully run..."

    Uh, you seem to have mistaken this board with Koz.
    And you seem to have mistaken your bullshit with anything worth reading.

  • Zuo||

    Learn to read an entire post, you American-Defense-Complex cocksucker. I am clearly opposed to the federal government and have no illusions about their competence.

  • sevo||

    Zuo|8.23.11 @ 11:24PM|#
    "Learn to read an entire post, you American-Defense-Complex cocksucker.
    Thanks, shithead.

  • Mustakrakish||

    As an 11-yr active duty sailor with intimate knowledge of weapon systenms. That has to be one of the dumbest things I have ever read. And I commonly have to sit through semi-annual diversity and anti-terrorism training!

  • Zuo||

    Now, being an obedient little goon of Uncle Sammy's bathtub army, I don't expect your superiors to tell you "yeah, we have a lot of projections and models (like the global warmists), but we kinda lack actual material data".

    The navy hasn't been tested since the fucking 1940s by anybody who had anything more than a few rusty PT boats. You say I'm an idiot since I expect the navy would be neutralized very quickly by air power and missiles. You are even more of an idiot for insisting it wouldn't. Another 1st world navy found itself at the mercy of missiles (from a 2nd rate country) not long ago. It was called the Falklands War. And the cowardly Britons had to beg the French to tell them to nullification codes for the Argy missiles that were decimating their 1337 navy. Do you have any examples of a navy succesfully intercepting a REAL (not navy play battle simulation) missile barrage? No? And no matter how accurate you think your play battles/war gaming are, you can go read history about how things work out in the real world. Rarely according to plan or expectations.

    Now, who can suck some US military dick about how tough and badass the choppers and seals are and so above any of their enemies?

    Then I can tell you about a few bearded jihadis with fucking rpgs. Not SLMs, mind you, rpgs.

  • Barack||

    War? War? What war?

  • ||

    Zuo, our missile technology is far superior to China's. And will be for a long time. Not that I support war or the huge military, but you have posted some of the stupidest shit I have ever read. And that's saying something around these parts. All revolving around a fantasy pissing contest in your head.

  • moop||

    every part of our military is stronger than theirs except for the number of people in the actually military, but our technological advancements and weaponry are far more advanced. the truth is much of the chinese military is at least 20 years behind us in almost every sense of the word. zuo is living in a dream world. the chinese military is a joke, its highly corrupt and you have to bribe your way into it.

  • Rev. Blue Moon ||

    Interestingly to me, Zuo does not think much of the American military. The Chinese, his favorite "team", ironically, don't agree --- if they did, why do they expend so many resources reverse-engineering our technology? If carrier groups are worthless, why did China bother?

    The only one who didn't get the memo about America sucking vis-a-vis China is...China.

  • ||

    Right. And what he doesn't seem to get is that if we did end up in some sort of military confrontation with China, we would not use aircraft carriers as the main weapon. We would bomb the shit out of their industrial areas within two weeks. But I feel icky bragging about our war power now.

  • Zuo||

    I didn't know the Varyag and Kiev were American technology. America is not the be all and end all.

    Note; it is HIGHLARIOUS that so many alleged "libertarians" will dutifully jump to the defense of the enforcement wing of their beloved federal government when they feel somebody is criticizing or demeaning it. Fucking classic.

  • Rev. Blue Moon ||

    I didn't know the Varyag and Kiev were American technology.

    Never said they were. Care to address the demonstrated times when the Chinese have, in fact, kept United States technology to try to reverse-engineer it? And it is funny that the J-20 looks like an amalgamation of the F22 and other American fighter jets. Coincidence, I am sure.

    America is not the be all and end all.

    Again, never said it was.

    it is HIGHLARIOUS that so many alleged "libertarians" will dutifully jump to the defense

    Being a libertarian does not mean that you accept every factually inaccurate statement that is tangentially related to government. If that were so, we'd all be Truthers.

    Next time, DUDE, address the arguments as presented and not the arguments you wish you had.

  • ||

    "But I feel icky bragging about our war power now."

    "Not that I support war or the huge military,"

    Try reading next time. And what Blue Moon said.

  • RED ARMY||

    CHINA TAKE OVER PLANET!! ROUND EYE DROWN IN SEA OF FIRE!! YOU NAVY SINK BY OUR TECHNOROGICALLY SUPERIOR MISSLE!!

    ALSO YOU BUY MORE OF OUR PLASTIC SHIT!!!

  • Zuo||

    Who's dumber: the one selling plastic garbage or the one buying it?

  • sevo||

    Zuo|8.23.11 @ 10:04PM|#
    "Now, being an obedient little goon of Uncle Sammy's bathtub army, I don't expect your superiors to tell you "yeah, we have a lot of projections and models (like the global warmists), but we kinda lack actual material data"."

    Now being a stupid propagandist, I don't expect anything worth reading from you,

  • RED ARMY||

    WAR GAMES MORE IMPORTANT THAN WAR!! WE BETTER GAMING THAN ROUND EYE WHO MAKE WAR TOO MUCH WITH TRILLIONS OF MONEY!!

  • jacob||

    Thats right Zuo, the Chinese are going to kick stupid gaijin ass. Rah Rah Rah. The Gaijin with their Carriers are so dumb, that is why the Chinese are building their own. That's because they are just so much smarter. The Russian technology was always superior to America's. That is why they kept stealing American tech. Yup. You got this one nailed down tight.

    Asshole.

  • moop||

    zuo, what an absolute joke. the chicoms are using carrier pigeons while we have robots that kill, and grenades that have computer chips and can move around obstacles to find their targets. i dont know where you're from but you sound like wumaodang or just a brainwashed 大陆狗 who has benefited from a western education. you can go fuck yourself

  • Ted S.||

    It's not a valid function of government to be destroying Alcoholics Anonymous.

  • LOLbertarian||

    To tarran:

    http://ibnlive.in.com/news/chi.....985-2.html

    The CHINESE anti-carrier missiles that everyone is busting nuts over is still in "development", by their own admission. The link you posted is about Soviet missiles developed 30-40 years ago.

  • tarran||

    I figure anything the Soviets could do in the 1970's the Chinese will be able to do in the next 10 years. ... if they want to.

    I don't think we'll see a Chinese/U.S. war: the Chinese government has a whole bunch of problems to keep in inwardly focused, and aren't trapped in a mercantilist paradigm of having to militarily ensure access to export markets and sources of raw materials to power domestic industries.

    OF course, this is predicated on the U.S. government not doing something stupid, so I can't be 100 percent certain.

  • ||

    I don't think we'll see a Chinese/U.S. war:

    Highly unlikely, unless the internal dislocations make the ChiComs think a nice war is what they need, and decide to go after Taiwan or the get really agressive in the South China Sea.

  • moop||

    "Carriers are giant floating phalluses" really? maybe you should go get one... dickless

  • yonemoto||

    Do you know just how hard it is to land on a carrier? It's really hard to bootstrap that, and the US has basically had continuous one-on-one hand-down training in that arena for about fifty years.

  • Zuo||

    Funny how the US, Britain, and Japan all mastered it on tiny ass carriers in about a 10 year span in the 1930s before there were such things as computers.

    Yeah, I'm sure its much more difficult now, with flight decks 3x as long and 4x as wide, with decades of records and experience available from many sources, and avionics and electronic assists for every tiny thing.

  • tarran||

    Not to mention flight simulators with which to do initial training.

  • Rev. Blue Moon ||

    It occurs to me that this is pronounced "joe" in Chinese. Is it possible that this is Zhuo from Rowerr?

  • Zuo||

    Wrong. Its more like TZUO,if anything. ZH is a different sound.

  • sevo||

    Zuo|8.23.11 @ 11:36PM|#
    "Wrong. Its more like TZUO,if anything. ZH is a different sound."

    Wrong, it's more like STUPID, if anything.
    Ignoramus is a different sound.

  • Rev. Blue Moon ||

    I am aware. Did you note how I spelled it "Zhou" (ed: "Zhuo", as a joke) in the second sentence, which DOES sound like joe? Maybe the angle of your taped-back eyelids is making reading difficult.

  • ||

    You mean planes could land on a 200 yd vessel before the advent of these thingies'?

  • ||

    who think anybody who critiques civilization is a "mass murderer"

    Well not everyone...hell probably not even most...

    But Pol Pot was a pretty big critic of civilization.

  • Blow it all up and start anew||

    But Pol Pot was a pretty big critic of civilization.

    Pol Pot's goal was "restarting civilization" at "year Zero," dumbshit.

    Maybe Pol Pot read Ayn Rand? She had the same fantasy.

  • LOLbertarian||

    A guy said it in a blog! Let's base all human society on it!

  • LOLbertarian||

    Wow, after browing this guy's blog, it's hilarious that he's White Indian's hero. This guy was an air force d00d trained by the most coercive arm of PRIV civilization. His website is all about marketing himself to attract clients - a true capitalist hero. Furthermore, his ideas about sustainability come from complex concepts of engineering and game theory formalized by Western Civilization.

  • LOLbertarian||

    I like all his models, plans, schematics, etc etc... With social planners like him in charge, everyone will be in Utopia.

  • ||

    everyone will be in Utopia

    An uncivilized utopia?

  • The Monolith||

    Thanks for reading. Sometimes it takes a few days or years for the seed of an idea to sprout in the mind of a howling chimp, but that's ok.

    P.S. Indigenous people had sustainability figured out before you could wipe your own butt. The Amazon rain forest is a human-gardened artifact. http://www.theatlantic.com/mag.....1491/2445/

  • LOLbertarian||

    Sorry, but 1491 is pop-archaeology meant to sell books written by a journalist. Read the review of it in Science, there are numerous criticisms. That blurb from the Atlantic is speculation; there is no smoking gun; certainly nothing to base the social structure of every single person on the planet around. Try again.

    I love how you spout off about Marxists, but everything you post reeks of Marxist planning: "We have the model! The model works! APPLY IT AND EVERYTHING WILL BE FINE!"

  • LOLbertarian||

    From Science, June 2006, review by Dean Smith:

    "Unfortunately the book also contains overstatements, errors, and speculations of the kinds that creep in when an author's purpose is to make a strong case for a thesis. Again, I will cite just a few. It is unnecessary to argue that Europeans were “unbearably dirty” to make the case that Indians were not filthy savages or to repeat Henry Dobyns's wildly inflated population estimates to make the case that colonial era epidemics were unprecedented in their devastation—everybody was smelly in 1491, and 60% mortality is horrendous no matter what the absolute size of the population. Older is better in popular books, and Brazil's Lagoa Santa skeletons are dusted off again. But none of the surprisingly early dates claimed for these and other finds in eastern Brazil meet minimum scientific standards for reliability. The Great Law of the Iroquois is very different from the U.S. Constitution. The framers of the latter were inspired mainly by European philosophy, yet Mann repeats the modern myth that the framers of the Constitution “were pervaded by Indian ideals and images of liberty.”

    The book is a good read. For the most part, Mann paints a fair picture of American Indians, and his account is largely free of fawning political correctness. But readers who know the subject well will question the polemics, erratic organization, and various factual statements. Critical readers should use 1491 only as a starting point, following the author's excellent notes and bibliography to explore more specific topics in the vast literature pertaining to Columbus's Other World."

    This is from a peer reviewed journal, written by a professor. You see, I can do appeals to authority too!

  • LOLbertarian||

    By the way - "The Original Affluent Society" is a really asinine piece to fall back on. The amount of research into H/G groups since then has dismantled a lot of what Sahilins said: He had an arbitrary distinction in the way he defined work vs. leisure, and also the tribes he studied have been shown to interact with local "civilization" and do wage-labor work, buy things, etc...

    Read “Beyond the Original Affluent Society: A Culturalist Reformation”, Current Anthropology 33(1) pp. 25-47, and also “The Darker Side of the Original Affluent Society”, Journal of Anthropological Research 56(3) pp. 301-324.

    It's fun having access to academic journals to refute your bullshit. Thank god for coercive city state agri universities.

  • LOLbertarian||

    Here's a more favorable review though, from a source you'll love: http://reason.com/archives/200.....ive-indian

  • Nah||

    I think your meds stopped working again.

  • Soviet Libertarians||

    The Soviets always attributed clear thinking that called into question their mistaken ideas to some mental disease too.

  • jacob||

    In Russia you don't get disease. disease gets you.

  • ||

    Our government gives out interest free money to banks/others then has those banks buy Treasuries at what ever percent Treasuries go for...

    And so instead of wondering why interest rates are so low and why banks don't loan out any money they blame China which carries only a fraction of the US debt compared to what US banks are carrying.

    Fuck China fearing idiots.

  • yonemoto||

    also, china does the same thing. It's like they are copying the dumbest things about america and we're copying the dumbest things about china.

  • ||

    on that note, the eleven sluttiest pictures of Casey Anthony.

    http://regretfulmorning.com/20.....y-anthony/

    It belongs on the morning links. But it is too late.

  • ||

    She definitely looks like a good time.

  • ||

    I didn't realize what a killer body she had. Yeah definitely worth it.

  • Mustakrakish||

    "Killer body"

    I LOLed.

  • PEOPRE REPUBRIC AGENT 40123998||

    CHINA VERY GOOD, YESSIR.

    ECONOMIC GROWTH WIRR INCREASE FOREVER.

    MORE EVERYTHING, IF RESS CHILDREN.

    CHINE #1 ECONOMY IN RESS THAN DECADE.

    GRORIOUS PEOPRE REPUBRIC GOOD, CAPITARISM BAD.

  • ||

    HEY WHO PUT PEE PEE IN MY COKE?

  • ||

    GRORIOUS PEOPRE REPUBRIC GOOD, CAPITARISM BAD.

    http://www.globescan.com/news_.....ee_market/

    67% vs 59%

  • Zuo||

    Ah! +1!

  • Rev. Blue Moon ||

    I wonder if that includes a free market in drugs. I am pretty sure the Chinese support a charged-to-your-family bullet in the brain for that sort of thing.

  • FAT AMERICAN DUMBSHIT||

    DURRR CHILLLDRUNNNNZZZ! CHILDRUN! FOR TEH CHILDRUUUNNN! CHINA HATES TEH CHILLLDDRUN!

  • ||

    Just the female ones.

  • Anonymous Coward||

    Not if they can sell them to Americans for a good price.

  • ||

    fuck you

  • Almanian||

    Deal with with adoption agency fell through? :(

  • Name Nomad||

    Pedantic Pete moment, but this has bothered me for a while. Chinese (Mandarin at least) has an "R" sound. It's Japanese that have difficulty with it. Chinese are the ones that have split-crotch pants for small children so that they can squat in alleys and poop.

  • Zuo||

    Pedantic Pete: you mean "L". The Japs have trouble with "L". They can make a reasonable "R" just fine (different from the gaijin "R", but still recognizable as such).

  • ||

    Maybe it's a regional thing, but I do recall many conversations with native Japanese speakers who couldn't pronounce anything remotely resembling an 'R'.

  • GILMORE||

    My friend Sylvia lived in Japan for a couple years. I think the L was in fact more of the problem. She used to do their version of her name, and it was really cute.... Went like, "See-ru-bi-ya"

    I always enjoyed listening to her (hot blonde chick) speak japanese. I think japanese is actually one of the most interesting sounding languages in the world. Pleasant to listen to. Very consonant and rhythmic and precise. Chinese... eh. mee wua ya gang de bo gun ding way yuuuuh cho sin waaa..... it grates a bit at times.

    p.s. my opinion on the sounds of languages is just a NYC thing. Sometimes you walk down a block and you hear 6 languages, none English. You develop preferences.

  • Ted S.||

    I've listened to a lot of international broadcasters from back in the days when they were all on short-wave. I always like the accents of the speakers on the Voice of Vietnam, and Radio Vilnius from Lithuania (sadly defunct).

  • rsi||

    You are older then I am.

  • ||

    An Aussie mate of mine lived in Japan and his name was Linley...or "RinRi."

  • The Bearded Hobbit||

    I was in the AF with a guy who had been stationed in Japan and had married a Japanese woman. He said that a Japanese band had permanently affected how he heard "Proud Mary". After hearing it, I can't hear it differently, either.

    "Lolling, lolling, lolling on the liver!"

    ... Hobbit

  • did you say "japs"?||

    Chinese and Korean also can't easily do the tongue movements for the "L". Especially when it's inside a word and they have to bounce from it to another sound.

  • Jim||

    NN, maybe in Mandarin, but my wife (native Cantonese speaker) cannot pronounce "R" at all, in any way. Her family is almost as bad (they can make a pass at an "R" sound, but it still sounds weird).

    The best example I can give is "owl" and "arrow". When she says those two words, they are literally indistinguishable from eachother.

  • Gojira (formerly Jim)||

    Forgot to use my new handle again *bangs head against wall*.

    Anyway, I was going to add a p.s. to the above, which is that I do recognize the comedic opportunities and make fun of her ruthlessly. She's a good sport.

  • sevo||

    Plick!

  • GILMORE||

    Gojira (formerly Jim)|8.23.11 @ 6:39PM|#
    Forgot to use my new handle again *bangs head against wall*.

    No! Commits ritual Seppuku!

  • BakedPenguin||

    Speaking of which, if you liked Samurai Rebellion, definitely check out Harikiri...

  • RED ARMY||

    ....that's fucking funny. You're continuing the Harry Potter-thread *here*!?

    Fucking hell. I actually never watched Samurai Rebellion yet. August has been busy... now I have more to add to the list...

  • GILMORE||

    Oh, shit, I just outed myself.

  • CatoTheElder||

    Listen to the pronunciation of the Mandarin word for the number 2.

    http://www.google.com/search?q.....=firefox-a

    Mandarin most certainly have the hard "r" sound.

  • CatoTheElder||

  • Joe M||

    So Kuttner, who was completely wrong about Japan, is now saying similar stuff about China, and we're supposed to take him seriously? Ridiculous.

  • Koan||

    Ok, I know that many reputable folks have a different opinion about this, but I do think China is a 21st Century version of Germany circa 1880-1914. There are too many parallels between them, and between our role in the world today compared with Britain's in the same time frame. I don't think we should fear them economically so much as we should fear our own politicians as they react to China's more aggressive moves in the Western Pacific.

  • ||

    I agree. I felt back in the '80s that the fearmongering over Japan was farcical -- We had no basic ideological conflict with them, and they had no discernible geopolitical ambitions. Technothriller authors had to concoct SPECTRE-like zaibatsu conspiracies to make them menacing.

    China, on the other hand, didn't have most of its nationalism bombed out of it 70 years ago, and seems very much interested in "claiming its place in the sun" the way Imperial Germany was.

  • A Serious Man||

    They got a crap load of troops and that's about it. In terms of technology their military is inferior to ours. And then of course there is nuclear deterrence, which is enough to keep them from messing with Taiwan, Korea, and Japan.

  • Zuo||

    Let me tell you about a country called 'Nazi Germany' which was unparalleled in technology and quality of equipment...

  • Zuo||

    Oh and training

  • sevo||

    Uh, as someone who has spent quite a bit of time studying WWII, Germany was "unparalleled" in none of those issues.
    Their tech was (with the exception of the 262) '30s tech, and got no further.
    Their 'quality' was that of craftsmen; not workable in the field.
    Their training at the inception of the war was very good, given that they had planned on war. Later, it fell off to 'here's the trigger; pull it'.

  • Mustakrakish||

    And did not have the natural resources to sustain it.

  • sevo||

    "And did not have the natural resources to sustain it."

    They didn't have the resources to *start* it; they did so hoping to steal the resources.
    What they found was that killing talented people and miss-using stolen goods didn't add to their wealth one bit.
    There were some folks in Vienna who could have explained this to them, but they were gone and the explanation would have gotten only an insane rant in response.

  • ||

    Their tech was (with the exception of the 262) '30s tech, and got no further.

    I had the impression that, outside of the air war, each of their weapons systems was better than the comparable Allied system.

    The problem was numbers.

  • Realist||

    "Once again, an economic yellow peril is exaggerated."
    It is a far right substitute for the 70 year Great Bear Scare!
    If we're not at war...hot or cold....the thumper warmongers are not happy.

  • ||

    It is the nation state equivalent of the socialist argument that someone being richer than you is a bad thing.

    If I have all the money I need to purchase what I want, why should I care if someone else has more?

    Grow up, fearmongers?

    And, btw, note that, even when China's GDP does surpass that of the US, the US will still be vastly richer per capita.

  • sevo||

    "If I have all the money I need to purchase what I want, why should I care if someone else has more?"

    And just as an abstract value, there are some millions of Chinese who are no longer on the verge of starvation.
    I guess I'm supposed to be upset about that, but instead it makes me smile.

  • DLM||

    I guess I'm supposed to be upset about that, but instead it makes me smile.

    Yeah, but soon they'll be eating junk food and McDumplings and the world will go to hell as a billion more consumers despoil the planet further.

  • sevo||

    "Yeah, but soon they'll be eating junk food and McDumplings and the world will go to hell as a billion more consumers despoil the planet further."
    Sarcasm? Spoof?
    Or stupidity?

  • ||

    Actually they prefer KFC.

  • sevo||

    Not sure about KFC, but chicken is a delicacy.
    I tried to interest Foster Farms in this a long time ago; they laughed.
    Bet they're not laughing now.

  • Drax the Destroyer||

    When I was there is February, there were KFCs, McDs, and Pizza Huts galore and their food was more expensive than the local cuisine.

  • moop||

    i live here and kfc is more popular, but mcdonalds is not far behind. children like mcdonalds more than kfc here though. i think in the next 10-15 years micky dees will be in the lead... also we have bk here now... i'm from charleston, sc

  • k2000k||

    Good article. What should also be examined is the fundemental reasons behind economic growth. China has taken the exact same economic model as Japan did, i.e export based and maximum employment through capital infrastructure spending. What many don't realize is that if it were not for government subsidize many export industries would have a profit margin in the negatives. That is not a formula for sustained growth, in fact, upon closer examination China has a property bubble larger than ours and an infrastructure bubble rivaling Japan as wells. When that bubble bursts it will bring economic armageddon upon China. Moreover, China doesn't have the deep power that the US does. The US boasts extraordinary capacity to grow food and expand within its internal borders, China unfortunately does not. The US is lucky to have many of its navigable rivers all tie to the mississipi which, ontop of our world class infrastructure, make it easy to deliver goods and materials around the country. China has three large rivers that they are currently trying to connect through canals at great cost. The US population demographics are favorable in the long term, China is not. And lastly, and most important. The American system of government, with all its statist flaws, is still superior to the Chinese model for long term stability and economic growth. The only people brining the US down will be ourselves.

  • Zuo||

    China has withstood more armageddons than the rest of the world combined. For instance, they had a civil war at the same time as the USA, which was a HUNDRED times (100x) more deadly than the American civil war. Just chew on that for a second.

    China's river layout and navigability is much preferable to that of North America. And the 2 largest rivers have been connected by canal for +/- 1000 years. Besides, the US barely uses rivers for transports. It is a highways and rail country. You might recall most of the rails were built between 1850 and 1900 (using much Chinese labor!) And most of the interstates didn't take long to complete either. Though repairs and upgrades to them seem to take forever and a day. Anyhow theres no reason to believe China can't whip itself up a world class freight rail and freeway network in pretty short order. They already outdid the US for the prestigious "big dam" award. But then again so did Egypt.

  • sevo||

    "For instance, they had a civil war at the same time as the USA, which was a HUNDRED times (100x) more deadly than the American civil war. Just chew on that for a second."
    And that means what?

    "And the 2 largest rivers have been connected by canal for +/- 1000 years."
    Navigable by what?

    "Besides, the US barely uses rivers for transports. It is a highways and rail country."
    "The inland trade [river shipping] industry moved 1.1 billion short tons of freight in 2009, according to the Maritime Administration, which comprised about 23 percent of the ton-miles of all domestic surface transportation traffic."
    http://business.highbeam.com/i.....classified
    Try something other than propaganda.

    "You might recall most of the rails were built between 1850 and 1900 (using much Chinese labor!)"
    Stupid fail.
    Do you think the trains are still riding on 1850 rails?

    "They already outdid the US for the prestigious "big dam" award. But then again so did Egypt."
    Goodness! Do tell!

  • lolcat||

    I take it you're referring to Three Gorges? I guess nothing builds prestige like displacing millions of people, destroying countless historical sites, and (allegedly) triggering the 2008 Sichuan earthquake. The US stopped building giant dams for a reason. Not to mention the ghost cities, labor unrest, lack of concern for basic hygiene/safety (just look at what's happening with the high speed rail lines), ethnic violence in Xinjiang, etc. If China's economic growth suddenly grinds to a halt (possible if America and Europe continue to slide), the CCP will likely not survive very long.

    That said I do agree with you that China could very well drink America's milkshake by the end of the century. Not because anything about China is particularly great but because the US has decided to eat itself alive. But I guess the most likely scenario is that both countries will end up being controlled by multinational corporations.

  • yonemoto||

    it's true.

    "Not because anything about China is particularly great but because the US has decided to eat itself alive"

    The US seems to be rushing to mimic the culture of face, corruption, prestige, and fraud that is endemic in China. Egged on by numbers-obsessed pseudoscientific pols and pundits.

    I wouldn't put it past China to figure out that it is unsustainable and doesn't work, just as we're circling the drain. On the other hand, the major killer in china is cancer, so it might be too late.

  • ||

    Plus, the punch line with the Three Gorges dam is that the river is so silty that the catchment is silting up, and the generators chew themselves to pieces.

    But its big!

  • moop||

    what a turd. how much mantou does that 50 cents get you? 狗腿子

  • GILMORE||

    ""The only people brining the US down will be ourselves.""

    And that, as PBS used to say, "is one to grow on"

    Or these guys=

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=huTk8bgzU9Y

  • Tman||

    I've linked this before, but P.J. O'Rourke covered this well during GW's tenure a few years ago in the article "Trading With the Enemy"- http://www.weeklystandard.com/.....7ypyxm.asp

    My favorite part of the piece is the comparison between Japan of the 1980's and China of today-

    excerpt-

    Instead of the luxuries of life, the Chinese import money. There's no such thing as a trade deficit, but there is such a thing as a current account deficit. China holds an enormous amount of U.S. currency. This worries America's policymakers, although I'll be damned if I know why.

    A U.S. dollar is an IOU from the Federal Reserve Bank. It's a promissory note that doesn't actually promise anything. It's not backed by gold or silver. If Hu Jintao brought a $100 bill with him to Washington, and if he took the $100 bill over to the Federal Reserve, what he got for it was a hundred dollars. He may have gotten it in twenties, tens, or dimes. But all the Fed will give anyone for their American money is other American money. Hu Jintao is stuck with his IOU.

    Maybe America's policymakers are worried that China will spend that cash and this will somehow damage sectors of the American economy. I spent three weeks eating Chinese regional delicacies, and I'll admit that, if the Chinese spend all their U.S. dollars, our pet shops will be stripped bare. But let us consider the parable of Japan in the 1980s. Japan kept giving America radios, TVs, stereos, and cars, and we kept giving Japan money. The Japanese didn't want anything America made except Michael Jackson tapes, and we didn't even make the valuable part--the tape cassette part--of those. So the Japanese decided to buy America itself. They bought office complexes, hotels, and golf courses. The Japanese bid up the price of American real estate until the bubble did what bubbles do. By the 1990s America had all the radios, TVs, stereos, and cars, and all the office complexes, hotels, and golf courses, and all the money.

    On the other hand, maybe America's policymakers are worried that the current account deficit will cause the dollar to be devalued. In that case they can quit worrying about Chinese exports because these will be as expensive as hell, which will cause rampant inflation, and the policymakers can worry about that.
  • BakedPenguin||

    Yup. Since August 2006, the yuan has appreciated by about 20% against the dollar. The interest we're paying on those T-bills / notes / bonds isn't keeping pace with the loss of value through currency deflation.

  • Tman||

    I guess the upside of a massive inflationary spike in the US will be that all the other countries who hold our debt will also suddenly be broke too.

    Win-win!

    /Biden

  • rsi||

    +1

  • Esteban||

    Considering that China will soon have an aging population being taken care of by fewer people due to 1 child policies, I expect their growth to slow dramatically. Of course with millions of Chinese men who will never marry or have children, I worry they will try to expand territory to even the score.

  • GILMORE||

    I worry they will try to expand territory to even the score.

    Uh, hasn't worked in the past. They've always been more worried about consolidating their own *massive* landmass than fucking with outsiders. But maybe you have a point. I think FP may have written about this before...

    http://ricks.foreignpolicy.com....._gets_rich

    more, with a Japan comparison

    http://www.foreignpolicy.com/a.....?page=full

  • Anonymous Coward||

    Of course with millions of Chinese men who will never marry or have children, I worry they will try to expand territory to even the score.

    There's an app for that.

    Vietnamese girls sold as brides in China

  • moop||

    they buy them from north korea too. they also buy them from within their own country. chinese people will do anything for money. a couple recently tried to sell their children so they could get computer games... currently loving it

  • Barack Obama||

    Interesting.

    So if we take over a few countries, we could expand our tax base to pay for Medicare and SS?

  • a dumbass||

    Excellent idea. Let's cast wide the border and add 50 million unskilled workers to the bottom quintile.

    Just need to jack up that minimum wage a few thousand percent so they actually pay taxes.

  • a dangerous dumbass||

    actually hold that thought. I just need to distribute enough bread and circuses to be sure my new imperial citizens vote for my side. Then I can jack up the tax rates on the schmucks that already live here. After all, look at how bad income inequality got, adding latin america to the US caused the rich to get richer and the poor to get poorer. Damn those evil hoarding bastards in that nonstationary statistical segment.

  • Ice Nine||

    I just returned from knocking around China for two months. I spoke to many people on the grassroots level. They are extremely proud of what is going on in China right now and they should be - the boom there is of course on a staggering level and is an incredible thing to behold. But to a person they told me that the stupendous scale and pace of the boom simply cannot be sustained.

    Several of the reasons have been mentioned above - the demographic problem and the looming real estate bubble. The amount of building is breathtaking and it cannot be adequately described in a few words other than to say that one wonders how there can be any cement and rebar left for the rest of the world to use. But home prices have skyrocketed and continue to and commercial overbuilding is rampant and manifest everywhere. When this bubble bursts it will, um, make the headlines.

    The real problem however, according to a Chinese banker I conversed with on a domestic flight, is the corruption in the government which results in corruption in the banking system which translates of course to gazillions of unsound loans being made to Party cronies. It is rampant and, most significantly according to her, it is pervasive and concentrated in the local governments which is such a vast problem that the central government is not even close to being able to monitor it, let alone control it. She told me that most everyone in her industry expects the China "miracle" to collapse within five years.

  • BakedPenguin||

    The real problem however, according to a Chinese banker I conversed with on a domestic flight, is the corruption in the government which results in corruption in the banking system which translates of course to gazillions of unsound loans being made...

    Damn. Glad that couldn't happen here.

  • Ice Nine||

    Of course, the irony was palpable.

  • BakedPenguin||

    Glad I could take your subtle, slyly intelligent tale with its perspicacious parallels and make it blatantly obvious for idiots like myself.

    I'm going to give up posting after drinking - for a while, anyway.

  • Nah||

    I'm going to give up posting

    YAY!

    after drinking

    Oh.

    for a while, anyway.

    Fuck you tease.

  • The Truth||

    Did they say anything about the choo choos???

    DID THEY SAY ANYTHING ABOUT THE CHOO CHOOS?!?!?!?!?

  • Whitey the Injun||

    Be silent you AGRI{CULTUR}AL CIT{Y}-STA{T}IST

  • Ice Nine||

    No...but then of course they would have said "chu chu."

  • R||

    Or "huo che"

  • moop||

    huo che is a regular train. the faster death traps are called dong che

  • sevo||

    "such a vast problem that the central government is not even close to being able to monitor it, let alone control it."
    'Comrade, your quota is ten tons of shoes!'

  • ranting ranter||

    Obviously it will crash at some point. People leverage like crazy and count on a constant growth that will slow down at some point, leading to a big correction when reality sets in.

    The question is how far back will it go. Japan didn't go all the back to where they started, and China likely won't either. China does have the one-party system which has to fall sooner or later, which will make the crash worse. But the more capitalism they can rush in before that happens the less USSR-like their crash could be, one might guess anyway.

  • AlmightyJB||

    Congress has awarded every victimized subgroup gaming rights as way to "pull themselves back up."

    http://www.theonion.com/video/.....n-c,21179/

  • TheOtherSomeGuy||

    Let's consider China's relationship with the US.

    They send us products they manufacture.

    We send them dollars in return.

    They then use those dollars to buy T-Bills.

    So we've got the goods AND the dollars, they've got a bunch of IOUs.

    Replace "T-Bills" with "beads", and it's similar to how settlers bought Manhattan from the Indians.

  • Zuo||

    Except if these beads turn out worthless, everybody is screwed, not just the suckers who bought the beads.

  • Benny Burn Hanky||

    Whaddya mean 'if'?

  • Nah||

    No, see that's why you're stupid, we still got the goods, only the suckers like you get screwed.

  • ranting ranter||

    also instead of manhattan, we get a bunch of worthless junk. With lead in it.

  • ranting ranter||

    oh and we also get some wonderful welfare with that cash, which has the counter-productive effect of making people unproductive dependents of the state.

  • ||

    My iPhone may be junk but it does work...perhaps it has lead in it.

    Also i am positive it worth more to me then the money i used to buy it.

    ...you know cuz otherwise i would not have bought it.

    Also the keyboard i am using to type this was made in china. It is also worth more to me then money I used to buy it.

  • sevo||

    Watch it!
    Ranting ranter thinks mercantilism = economics.

  • ranting ranter||

    hey fuck you. I don't support any such shit. I was just referring to the fact that cheaply-manufactured goods do not even last as long as the debt used to buy them.

    And josh your shit is worthless to me and I know this "cuz" I didn't buy it. But hey when I want to express your opinions on the value of something instead of mine I'll be sure to check with you on that.

  • sevo||

    ranting ranter|8.23.11 @ 11:26PM|#
    "hey fuck you. I don't support any such shit. I was just referring to the fact that cheaply-manufactured goods do not even last as long as the debt used to buy them.

    Hey, suck a dick!
    You're full of shit even with your backpedaling.
    Got any data on how long something lasts? Thought not; one more ignoramus.

  • ranting ranter||

    what backpedaling? You mean from the beliefs of the pro-mercantilist strawman projected in the head of some internet-shitstain? You're the one who made a provably false claim. Then starts demanding data. Yeah I got your data right here. Seriously though, anyone could easily provide tons of data. Things like textiles and electronics depreciate extremely fast.

    But as a matter of fact my opinion on the wisdom of the crap people choose to spend their artificially-inflated currency on says zero about what I think the government should be doing one way or the other regarding trade. Freedom means freedom to make bad decisions. See how that works dipshit?

  • Drax the Destroyer||

    I agree with you ranter, assuming you are not White Indian in sheep's clothing. I "tried out" a smart phone for a week or two recently, and although it was great in many respects, it just wasn't worth the 30 bucks a month I'd have to fork over to Verizon to use it. On top of this, I don't use cable anymore nor do I plan to. At the same time, if dumb shits feel like blowing cash on pet rocks and similar shit, they should be free to.

  • LK||

    I am automation engineer and sometimes I read the related forums like control.com or plctalk.net.

    It's impossible to pinpoint where the discussion thread questions originate but the language barrier is evident and most of the manufacturing build-up is in Asia.

    You get posts like this:

    How to build cement plant? Please send all information.

    I'd have a 20 minute orgasm if someone contracted me to design the instrumentation and controls of a cement plant in the US.

    That won't happen here (CA) and the guy with the question will eventually figure it out.

    The know-how-can-do on this type of work will shift to Asia.

  • adam||

    In the total GDP category, China has a huge advantage over the US- it has four times the population. That means it only needs to get per capita GDP up to a quarter of the US to equal it. Japan, on the other hand, has population less than half of the US.

  • LK||

    Japan's demographics are very different than China's. Japan is getting older. China's baby boom is still in the pipeline. The most productive years in a man's work life range between 35 and 55 years old.

    And then there's that other little issue about which we shall not speak. 105/106.

  • Blue sky||

    If the economy does not go beyond that with the people does not make sense, I am a Chinese, you imagine a family two generations to 100 years to buy a small house, garden or not there is no garage. Our country's gdp growth of 10% per year, the income of our people is 2%, revenue growth was 34.5%. Investment in education accounted for only 2.4% of revenue, investment in health care for 1.4% of total revenue. So I am 20 years or 50 years China surpass the United States has no interest, and did not feel meaningful.

  • yemek tarifleri||

    thank you very much executives like you, I really like your blog very clean and reliable link to a web site trying to get the ban I hope I do not eat many thanks
    Web sites with the music here is actually fun, chat, friendship, bi kind of people that I'm trying to create an ideal environment for fusion with each other and chat environments, and sexual issues, as well as food, drink, and even my own social networking areas, such as creating a single goal is to serve our valuable administrators hope you understand
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  • Blow it all up and start anew||

    But Pol Pot was a pretty big critic of civilization.

    Pol Pot's goal was "restarting civilization" at "year Zero."

    Maybe Pol Pot read Ayn Rand? She had the same murderous fantasy: blow the whole thing up and start over.

    Oh, and fuck Eddie Willers.

    Civilized people are genocidal annihilationists, sometimes externally invasive* as they slaughtered 90 million Indians in the New World, other times internally repressive.*

    * Stanley Diamond's description of civilization in his book In Search of the Primitive: A Critique of Civilization.

  • Kai Lan||

    Chinese mind get all sexed in poop shoot from american hero STEVE SMITH. Chinese gentle and love children. American poet Paul Kantner understand chinese. He write this butifull poem while riding on Starplane.

    It's like a tear in the hands of a western man
    Tell you about salt, carbon and water
    But a tear to a chinese man
    He'll tell you about sadness and sorrow or the love of a man and
    a woman

  • ||

    To folks posting here. Keep in mind the Chinese government pays people to come on boards like this and post crap like Zuo is.

    Apparently reason.com now has its own Politburo funded troll.

    Welcome to the club Zuo.

  • moop||

    they are called wumaodang, the 50-cent army. they get paid 50 fen (cents) per post. the internet is CRAWLING with them. its really awful

  • fawful||

    This is an extremely important topic. Why should I care if China catches up to the US in GDP? Because they might be strong enough to reconquer taiwan? Who gives a shit. Let the Taiwanese deal with that.

    What we should really be afraid of is neocons and cruise-missile liberals dragging us to be cannon fodder for another foreign war thousands of miles away.

  • NotSure||

    People forget that China has the most internet users in the world, if one visits sites such as the BBC or The Economist one can quickly observe the many Chinese nationalists hanging out there. It shows how stupid nationalism is, from whichever country it comes.

    China is no threat to America, it is surrounded by Russia, India, Japan and Vietnam, China is more concerned about its direct neighbours not going on faraway adventures. If China becomes the richest country in the world everyone wins, including Americans.

  • Authentic jerseys nfl||

    That's good!

  • saraugg||

    He'll tell you about sadness and sorrow or the love of a man and

  • ||

    It's likely that China's growth will slow, probably sooner than most expect. Their quasi-command economy gives them some flexibility to make adjustments, but there are just too many structural issues they probably cannot address in time, and the marketplace is becoming more competitive for everybody. A couple of confounding forces to this outcome: China might be able to overcome these problems if it can effectively tap the resources in the Western Provinces(screwing the Tibetans and Uyghurs) and at the same time transition into a better balance of consumption vs. export driven economics before the export well dries up. If not, then Communist Party's days are numbered, and you can bet these technocrats know this are are trying to address it.

  • ||

    As far as I can make out, it was the Roman author Tacitus who began the trend of attributing mostly imaginary virtues to the folks over the way, the better to condemn the moral rot and perversion of These Ungodly Times.
    And of course, in each case actual experience of the folks who live where the grass is supposedly greener constituted a sharp learning curve. The bloodthirsty marauders who overwhelmed Rome had nothing in common with the "noble savages" depicted by Tacitus; in our own time the supposedly exemplary experiments of the Soviet Union, Fascist Europe,and zaibatsu Japan have all been demonstrated to be standing on feet of clay.

    My question is this: after China proves that it is the Nation of the Future (and always will be) what country or system will be left for the professionally tender-minded to slobber over? Or will we think big, and bet on the Klingons, or whoever it is Paul Krugman and NASA think is preparing to invade us from outer space, the better to punish our budgetary and environmental transgressions?

  • moop||

    uhhh.... fuck you? 大陆狗. wumaodang chicom lackey.

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