Gary Johnson's Final Poll Numbers: 4.8% and Rising
Libertarian is up at least 3x up on his 2012 results in every state, exceeding the Clinton-Trump spread in one-quarter of the country, beating Jill Stein everywhere, and ahead of ballot-access thresholds in 24 of 29 states.
As you head to polls today and/or watch the electoral drama unfold, here is a final snapshot of where presidential candidate Gary Johnson stands on the morning of the Libertarian Party's best-ever showing in a national election.
As of 10 pm ET last night, the poll averages of both FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics had Johnson at 4.8 percent of the vote, tantalizingly close to the mythical 5 percent level that would trigger federal classification as a "minor party," thus making the L.P. eligible for an estimated $10 million in public matching funds in 2020. (Whether the party would accept that money is another story.) That 4.8 percent mark also represents a final-week increase for Johnson after a two-month slide—up from an RCP low of 4.1 percent on Nov. 3, and a 538 nadir of 4.4 percent on Nov. 5. FiveThirtyEight now predicts him to finish at 4.8 percent.
As Brian Doherty detailed last week, the 5 percent goal doesn't actually affect the party's all-consuming fight to gain ballot access around the country; those determinations are made on a state-by-state basis. So to illustrate both the stakes of today's vote, and the Libertarian Party's position on its eve, I have compiled and ranked Johnson's polling numbers in all 50 states (while also listing those of the competition) after the jump below. All current polling for Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, and Gary Johnson is culled from FiveThirtyEight's polls-plus averages; all numbers for Green Party nominee Jill Stein are gleaned from RealClearPolitics (because 538 doesn't count 'em), and with the exception of Utah, the figures for independent conservative Evan McMullin are compiled by yours truly. Important caveat: Wherever states haven't polled much (and these include such Johnson-friendly locales as North Dakota and Wyoming) his numbers are almost certainly higher than what the results will be, because of the aforementioned poll-slide.
Some key points before you browse the list:
* Johnson is polling at least three times higher than his 2012 vote totals in every state.
* His polling percentage exceeds the gap between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in 13 states.
* In 32 states plus the District of Columbia, FiveThirtyEight estimates that the odds of the front-runner winning are greater than 90 percent. The presidential race is still not close for most voters.
* Johnson is outpolling Jill Stein in every state (though five states haven't featured Stein in the polls). This is consistent with his 2012 record of beating the Green everywhere except Michigan (where he wasn't on the ballot), and Washington, D.C. In fact, Johnson is polling at least twice as high as Stein in every state except New York (3.8%-3.4%), California (4.2%-3.0%), Oregon (5.0%-3.7%), Vermont (5.2%-5.0%), Rhode Island (4.8%-4.5%), West Virginia (5.0%-4.0%), South Carolina (3.6%-2.3%), Connecticut (5.0%-3.5%), and Arkansas (4.9%-2.5%). The latter six states have barely featured Stein in the polls, however, so her numbers in those are clearly overstated.
* Johnson is crushing Evan McMullin in every state that does not have a double-digit Mormon population. The one Johnson-McMullin swing state, if you will, is Idaho, where the only two polls featuring both showed a 10%-5% lead for the independent.
* Of the 29 states that have vote thresholds for future L.P. ballot access, Johnson is polling higher than that threshold in 24, and more than twice as high in 17. The biggest nail-biters will be the 5 percent states: North Dakota (where he's polling at 7.6%, though the surveys have been scant), Nebraska (6.8), Minnesota (6.1), Arizona (5.4), Washington (5.1), Rhode Island (4.8), Texas (4.7), Tennessee (4.2), and Louisiana (3.3).
Without further preamble, here's a list of 50 states plus Washington, D.C., ranked by Gary Johnson's pre-election poll numbers as of 10 pm ET last night:
1) New Mexico 13.9% (HC 45.3%, DT 39.9%, JS 2.3%, EM n/p)
538 odds of winning the state: Clinton 82.1%
LP ballot-access threshold: 0.5%
Johnson's 2012 vote: 3.55%
2) Alaska 10.2% (DT 47.9%, HC 40.3%, JS 4.0%)
538 odds: Trump 79.0%
Ballot-access threshold: 3.0%
Johnson 2012: 2.46%
3) Montana 9.3% (DT 52.3%, HC 36.8%, JS 1.0%)
538 odds: Trump 96.9%
Ballot-access threshold: 2.0%
Johnson 2012: 2.93%
4) Wyoming 7.7% (DT 63.1%, HC 27.2, JS n/p)
538 odds: Trump 99.2%
Ballot-access threshold: n/a
Johnson 2012: 2.14%
5) South Dakota 7.7% (DT 53.7%, HC 37.0%)
538 odds: Trump 95.3%
Ballot-access threshold: n/a
Johnson 2012: 1.59%
6) North Dakota 7.6% (DT 56.5%, HC 34.3%)
538 odds: Trump 97.9%
Ballot-access threshold: 5.0%
Johnson 2012: 1.62%
7) Kansas 7.5% (DT 52.1%, HC 38.6%, JS 2.0%)
538 odds: Trump 97.9%
Ballot-access threshold: 1.0%
Johnson 2012: 1.76%
8) Colorado 7.4% (HC 47.6%, DT 43.8%, JS 3.1%, EM 1.0%)
538 odds: Clinton 76.3%
Ballot-access threshold: n/a
Johnson 2012: 1.38%
9) Indiana 7.1% (DT 52.2%, HC 40.7%)
538 odds: Trump 97.6%
Ballot-access threshold: n/a
Johnson 2012: 1.91%
10) New Hampshire 6.9% (HC 47.6%, DT 44.3%, JS 2.0%)
538 odds: Clinton 69.2%
Ballot-access threshold: n/a
Johnson 2012: 1.16%
11) Nebraska 6.8% (DT 55.3%, HC 36.2%, JS 1.0%)
538 odds: Trump 98.7%
Ballot-access threshold: 5.0%
Johnson 2012: 1.40%
12) Idaho 6.8% (DT 56.3%, HC 35.0%, EM 10%, JS 2.7%)
538 odds: Trump 99.5%
Ballot-access threshold: 3.0%
Johnson 2012: 1.45%
13) Oklahoma 6.8% (DT 60.0%, HC 33.2%)
538 odds: Trump 99.9%
Ballot-access threshold: 2.5%
Johnson 2012: n/a
14) Maine 6.2% (HC 49.7, DT 42.7%, JS 2.5%)
538 odds: Clinton 82.2%
Ballot-access threshold: n/a
Johnson 2012: 1.31%
15) Minnesota 6.1% (HC 49.4%, DT 43.3%, JS 1.8%, EM 1.0%)
538 odds: Clinton 85.6%
Ballot-access threshold: 5.0%
Johnson 2012: 1.20%
16) Michigan 5.8% (HC 48.5%, DT 44.3%, JS 2.3%)
538 odds: Clinton 78.7%
Ballot-access threshold: 0.5%
Johnson 2012: 0.16% (as a write-in)
17) Massachusetts 5.8% (HC 57.9%, DT 34.7%, JS 2.3%)
538 odds: 99.9%
Ballot-access threshold: 3.0%
Johnson 2012: 0.98%
18) Hawaii 5.7% (HC 58.5%, DT 33.7%, JS n/p)
538 odds: 99.3%
Ballot-access threshold: n/a
Johnson 2012: 0.88%
19) Nevada 5.6% (HC 47.2%, DT 46.0%)
538 odds: 58.6%
Ballot-access threshold: 1.0%
Johnson 2012: 1.08%
20) Utah 5.5% (DT 37.9%, EM 27.9%, HC 26.5%, JS 1.8%)
538 odds: Trump 84.8%
Ballot-access threshold: 2.0%
Johnson 2012: 1.24%
21) Arizona 5.4% (DT 48.1, HC 45.1%, JS 1.8%)
538 odds: Trump 70.7%
Ballot-access threshold: 5.0%
Johnson 2012: 1.40%
22) Iowa 5.4% (DT 48.0%, HC 45.3, JS 2.0%, EM n/p)
538 odds: Trump 69.7%
Ballot-access threshold: 2.0%
Johnson 2012: 0.82%
23) Missouri 5.3% (DT 51.8%, HC 41.4%, JS 1.5%)
538 odds: Trump 97.0%
Ballot-access threshold: 2.0%
Johnson 2012: 1.56%
24) Vermont 5.2% (HC 59.9%, DT 33.1%, JS 5.0%)
538 odds: Clinton 98.4%
Ballot-access threshold: n/a
Johnson 2012: 1.17%
25) Washington 5.1% (HC 53.1%, DT 40.4%, JS 1.5%)
538 odds: Clinton 97.8%
Ballot-access threshold: 5.0%
Johnson 2012: 1.35%
26) Ohio 5.1% (DT 47.7%, HC 46.0%, JS 2.3%)
538 odds: Trump 63.3%
Ballot-access threshold: n/a
Johnson 2012: 0.89%
27) Oregon 5.0% (HC 51.6%, DT 42.1%, JS 3.7%)
538 odds: Clinton 94.5%
Ballot-access threshold: 1.0%
Johnson 2012: 1.35%
28) Delaware 5.0% (HC 52.0%, DT 40.6%, JS 2.0%)
538 odds: Clinton 90.2%
Ballot-access threshold: n/a
Johnson 2012: 0.94%
29) West Virginia 5.0% (DT 60.0%, HC 33.3%, JS 4.0%)
538 odds: Trump 99.8%
Ballot-access threshold: n/a
Johnson 2012: 0.94%
30) Connecticut 5.0% (HC 52.7%, DT 40.7%, JS 3.5%)
538 odds: Clinton 96.8%
Ballot-access threshold: 1.0%
Johnson 2012: 0.81%
31) Arkansas 4.9% (DT 56.6%, HC 36.8%, JS 2.5%, EM n/p)
538 odds: Trump 99.6%
Ballot-access threshold: 3.0%
Johnson 2012: 1.52%
32) Rhode Island 4.8% (HC 54.2%, DT 39.4%, JS 4.5%)
538 odds: Clinton 93.9%
Ballot-access threshold: 5.0%
Johnson 2012: 0.98%
33) Georgia 4.7% (DT 49.9%, HC 45.4%)
538 odds: Trump 81.8%
Ballot-access threshold: n/a
Johnson 2012: 1.16%
34) Texas 4.7% (DT 51.5%, HC 42.2%, JS 2.0%)
538 odds: Trump 95.9%
Ballot-access threshold: 5.0%
Johnson 2012: 1.11%
35) Wisconsin 4.6% (HC 49.7%, DT 44.4%, JS 2.0%)
538 odds: Clinton 83.9%
Ballot-access threshold: 1.0%
Johnson 2012: 0.67%
36) Virginia 4.4% (HC 49.9%, DT 44.5%, EM 1.7%, JS 1.2%)
538 odds: Clinton 85.1%
Ballot-access threshold: n/a
Johnson 2012: 0.81%
37) Illinois 4.3% (HC 53.7%, DT 40.7%, JS 1.5%)
538 odds: Clinton 98.4%
Ballot-access threshold: n/a
Johnson 2012: 1.07%
38) California 4.2% (HC 58.4%, DT 35.8%, JS 3.0%)
538 odds: Clinton 99.9%
Ballot-access threshold: n/a
Johnson 2012: 1.10%
39) Kentucky 4.2% (DT 56.4%, HC 37.6%, JS 1.5%, EM 1.0%)
538 odds: Trump 99.6%
Ballot-access threshold: 2.0%
Johnson 2012: 0.95%
40) Tennessee 4.2% (DT 53.7%, HC 40.3%, JS 1.0%)
538 odds: Trump 98.1%
Ballot-access threshold: 5.0%
Johnson 2012: 0.76%
41) Pennsylvania 4.1% (HC 49.1%, DT 45.6%, JS 1.5%)
538 odds: Clinton 75.8%
Ballot-access threshold: n/a
Johnson 2012: 0.87%
42) Maryland 4.0% (HC 60.4%, DT 33.9%, JS 2.0%)
538 odds: Clinton 99.9%
Ballot-access threshold: 1.0%
Johnson 2012: 1.12%
43) North Carolina 4.0% (HC 48.2%, DT 47.8%)
538 odds: Clinton 58.8%
Ballot-access threshold: 2.0%
Johnson 2012: 0.99%
44) New York 3.8% (HC 57.2%, DT 37.3%, JS 3.4%)
538 odds: Clinton 99.8%
Ballot-access threshold: n/a
Johnson 2012: 0.67%
45) Alabama 3.8% (DT 57.8%, HC 36.7, JS n/p)
538 odds: Trump 99.9%
Ballot-access threshold: n/a
Johnson 2012: 0.59%
46) South Carolina 3.6% (DT 51.2%, HC 43.8%, JS 2.3%, EM n/p)
538 odds: Trump 90.1%
Ballot-access threshold: n/a
Johnson 2012: 0.83%
47) Louisiana 3.3% (DT 55.4%, HC 39.6%, JS 1.5%, EM n/p)
538 odds: Trump 99.5%
Ballot-access threshold: 5.0%
Johnson 2012: 0.91%
48) New Jersey 3.0% (HC 53.6%, DT 41.9%, JS 2.3%)
538 odds: Clinton 97.2%
Ballot-access threshold: n/a
Johnson 2012: 0.58%
49) Florida 3.0% (HC 48.1%, DT 47.7%, JS 1.0%)
538 odds: 54.0% Clinton
Ballot-access threshold: n/a
Johnson 2012: 0.53%
50) Mississippi 2.6% (DT 54.5%, HC 41.4%, JS 0.0%)
538 odds: Trump 95.7%
Ballot-access threshold: n/a
Johnson 2012: 0.52%
51) District of Columbia 1.5% (HC 84.0%, DT 11.6%, JS n/p)
538 odds: Clinton 99.9%
Ballot-access threshold: 2.5% (estimated)
Johnson 2012: 0.71%
