Global Warming at a "Standstill" Admits Man-Made Warming Proponent Hansen

In a global temperature update through 2012 [PDF], James Hansen and his colleagues at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies report:

The 5-year running mean of global temperature has been flat for the past decade (emphasis added). It should be noted that the "standstill" temperature is at a much higher level than existed at any year in the prior decade except for the single year 1998, which had the strongest El Nino of the century. However, the standstill has led to a widespread assertion that "global warming has stopped".

But Hansen and colleagues argue that that the global temperature trend won't stay stopped:

... the continuing planetary energy imbalance and the rapid increase of CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use assure that global warming will continue on decadal time scales. Moreover, our interpretation of the larger role of unforced variability in temperature change of the past decade, suggests that global temperature will rise significantly in the next few years as the tropics moves inevitably into the next El Nino phase.

We shall see. If this plateau in global average temperatures continues for a few more years, it will call the projections made by current computer climate models seriously into question.

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  • AlmightyJB||

    That picture convinces me that we need to stay the course.

  • mr simple||

    ONLY COMPLETE GOVERNMENT CONTROL CAN STOP ABSOLUTE CATASTROPHE! PAY NO ATTENTION TO THE DATA!

  • LTC(ret) John||

    Poley Bears is floatin' away to drown! The Himalayas have no snow! Greenland has white sand beaches where people sunbathe!

  • John Henry||

  • Mr Whipple||

    Actually, people are beginning to farm Greenland the way the Vikings did before the Little Ice Age.

  • AlmightyJB||

    I'm looking forward to 2021 so I can watch An Inconvenient Truth for the first time and LMAO.

  • Archduke Pantsfan||

    The book was selling for $5 at a local bookshop last month.

  • EDG reppin' LBC||

    Al Gore is so over that book. He just got a $29 million payday.
    http://news.cnet.com/8301-1357.....9-million/

  • AlmightyJB||

    Put he still belongs to the 99% right?

  • Free Society||

    it was my understanding that current computer models were called into question already.

  • LTC(ret) John||

    No, they figured the "trick" to "hide the decline" dammit!

  • tarran||

    It's important to understand what hide the decline refered to.

    A group of dendroclimatologists took a bunch of tree cores and stitched them together to make chronologies of growth seasons in various places. They then used principal component analysis to map the tree ring thicknesses in these chronologies to known temperature records, weighting some chronologies and some not at all.

    This gave a curve of a proxy for temperature that was used to stand in for non-existent temperature records from times greater than 1000 years ago.

    However, while they could come up with fits that closely matched temperature between 1880 and 1960, they couldn't get rid of a problem: the proxy temp dives downward in 1960 while the real temp climbs. This is The Decline.

    How to hide it? Simple... Truncate the proxy curve in 1960 and splice in the actual temperature to fool people into thinking the divergence doesn't exist. This was "Mike's Nature Trick" named after Michael Mann's use of it in a paper he published in Nature back in the day.

    The fact that the few climate scientists who dare to criticize it publicly are pilloried and ostracized speaks loudly as to what a pseudo-science that field is.

  • tarran||

    Should be:

    This gave a curve of a proxy for temperature that was used to stand in for non-existent temperature records from times greater than 1000 150years ago.
  • some guy||

    A separate, but equally (in my mind) damning accusation was that the dendroclimatologists cherry-picked the trees that they used in their analysis. I'm not talking about after 1960. I'm talking about going all the way back.

  • tarran||

    dendroclimatologists cherry-picked the trees that they used in their analysis.

    That's what PCA is - it's a system of cherry picking. It's useful when there is a linear relationship between the components and the dependent parameter and can help discover relationships when they exist.

    It can also ID spurious relationships that don't actually exist but are due to accidental correlation.

    In the case of mapping tree rings to temperature, they were doing the latter: tree rings actually measure how optimal growing conditions were, and that's a function of distance from some perfect temperature (either high or low), water, sun and fertilizer availability.

    Unsurprisingly Mann got very bad R^2 values, which he then decided not to publish - claiming the parameter hadn't been worth his time to calculate.

  • Torontonian||

    The weakness of the analysis methodology was demonstrated by replacing the tree ring data with random noise, and observing that the code still generated a hockey-stick.

  • ||

    A group of dendroclimatologists took a bunch of tree cores

    stop right there.

    It is one tree...not a bunch.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/com.....world.html

  • ||

    Indeed only the evidence from one tree, YADO61, seemed to show a "hockey stick" pattern, and it was this, in light of the extraordinary reverence given to the CRU's studies, which led McIntyre to dub it "the most influential tree in the world".

  • JW||

    You! General circulation model! GET IN HERE RIGHT NOW!

  • Pro Libertate||

    My concern with the hysteria is that if we ever do end up doing something to affect the climate, no one is going to believe it.

  • Dweebston||

    This, this, a thousand times, this. Political bandwagoning is terrific for politicians, terrific for industrial insiders, paid researchers, and technically literate authors, but terrible for anyone who actually wants it taken seriously. When marketing a product, would you post ads deriding blacks to niche yourself into that lucrative white supremicist market? How does it make any better sense seeking political patronage when it effectively shuts out half your potential audience? And yes, I realize I'm railing against political opportunism, but it's maddening the way the green crowd embraces its political patrons as if they're being done a favor.

  • Pro Libertate||

    It's been suggested that if we ever get fusion or something along those lines, that dealing with excess heat could become a big problem.

  • some guy||

    Yeah, people talk about how easy fusion will result in "free" energy. That ain't how markets work. Easy fusion will result in a huge jump in energy use. Prices may come down, but they will level off somewhere well above zero. And all that extra heat has to go somewhere...

  • Pro Libertate||

    Mr. Heat Mizer?

  • Dweebston||

    Which strikes me as a good problem to have, given the alternative.

  • ||

    Easy fusion will result in a huge jump in energy use.

    Power is at about 10 cents a kilowatt hour...

    Give me a fucking break.

    Power is already damn near free and the money you are paying is mostly to maintain the power lines.

  • Live Free or Diet||

    Power is already damn near free and the money you are paying is mostly to maintain the power lines.

    True. Home-generation of power is relatively inefficient, but it can be pretty cheap. I have a 20 amp rig (old truck alternator to battery to inverter) at my cabin that ran on 2 to 3 gallons of gasoline a day before I changed it over to gassified wood. (Hauling gas was cutting into the other supplies.)

  • ||

    It's been suggested that if we ever get fusion or something along those lines, that dealing with excess heat could become a big problem.

    You mean in scifi books where the world population is 100 billion?

  • ||

    I have very reliable information that Florida pythons are one of the keystone carbon sinks that anchor the entire world's weather.

  • Pro Libertate||

    Sorry, but they have to go.

  • JW||

    continuing planetary energy imbalance

    I am feeling a bit run down today. It's those fucking Chinese!

  • LTC(ret) John||

    +1 ginseng energy drink

  • John Henry||

    I'll leave this here as it seems appropriate. But the earth is getting greener. Yes, greener.

  • Dweebston||

    I, for one, welcome our green overlords, and look forward to an era of peacable coexistence manufacturing CO2 in exchange for our precious oxygen. No cap, just trade.

  • Brandybuck||

    The problem is the data because obviously the models cannot be wrong!

  • Bee Tagger||

    and the rapid increase of CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use

    So they're letting the US off the hook for this one?

    U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions at 20-Year Low Thanks to Fracking

  • Dweebston||

    Natural gas doesn't fit the clean energy paradigm. Have you not paid attention since 2009?

  • Dweebston||

    I'm not familiar with Dr. Hansen's work, but my takeaway from the quoted paragraphs is "more research funding needed." The effects are "decadal"? Why, then, decades of funding!

  • JW||

  • Dweebston||

    Every movement needs its Ehrlich.

  • Tim||

    One day they'll look back at this scare the way we look at fear of witches in medieval Europe.

  • JW||

  • entropy||

    If this plateau in global average temperatures continues for a few more years, it will call the projections made by current computer climate models seriously into question.

    Being wrong in absolutely all their predictions never caused their models to be seriously questioned before, I don't see why it should start in the next few years.

  • entropy||

    Quite freaking literally. No fooling. If you go back to the start of modern climatology in the late 19th century, since we started keeping track of the temperature we've had theories of catastrophic global warming, global cooling, global warming, global cooling, and (now) global warming again. Just around the bend.

  • Tim||

    The ice melts and then it comes back, on about 10,000 year cycles. That's about the best we can do.

  • some guy||

    Hey Ron! You either Sugarfree'd the link or killed the server. And I don't think you are popular enough to kill the server.

  • ||

  • ||

    it will call the projections made by current computer climate models seriously into question.

    So models projections have been underestimating actual trends in warming for the past 20+ years. Also warming has stopped yet CO2 levels have been smoothly rising.

    If climate models are not seriously in question now then i have my doubts about any questions about them in the future.

    Pretty sure a whole generation would have to die and a new one come in to replace it for this backwards regime to be overturned. So 25 years from now this will be corrected. (similar to how perceptions of interracial marriage took a bunch of ignorant racists to grow old and die before it became acceptable)

    We could enter an ice age tomorrow and the climate models would still be held up as telling us the real truth and you would still be the lukewarmer that you are.

  • ||

    Hahaha, lukewarmer. I like that.

  • T o n y||

    What's so ridiculous about the denier position is the certainty with which it is held--based entirely on sketchy bullshit from rightwing websites. People who desperately want global warming not to be real and are willing to entertain truly outlandish scenarios in order to maintain that belief ought not to lecture anyone on the scientific process.

  • Dweebston||

    ...he says, of an article linking to the Columbia University and quoting extensively a leading proponent of the movement.

  • T o n y||

    I'm not referring to Bailey.

  • tarran||

    Tony really doesn't follow the whole AGW scam too closely. He contents himself to linking to the occasional essay on that notorious astroturf site, Credulous Superstitions.

    I doubt he knows the names of the big players at all - and as a result makes the most amusing assumptions.

    Personally, I would be rejoicing if I were in his shoes. If the CAGW cult had been right, humanity was doomed... instead we live to enjoy prosperity for another day!

  • KPres||

    "...denier position..."
    "...sketchy bullshit..."
    "...rightwing websites..."
    "...truly outlandish scenarios..."

    What? Not enough specifics for you?

  • Dale||

    "If this plateau in global average temperatures continues for a few more years, it will call the projections made by current computer climate models seriously into question."

    It is already called into question. None of the global warming models predicted a plateau.

    Also, according to the "UK Daily Mail", UK's MET Office reports that global warming stopped 16 years ago.

    Ref: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/new.....ds-newsxml

  • Canman||

    The people making all these "projections" might make good projectionists at their local movie theaters.

  • Bernieyeball||

    Nope. They have robots that show movies now...Non union robots...ACK!!!

  • Bernieyeball||

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