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Ted Stevens, Walking the Bridge to Nowhere
All week, pundits have been assuming that Alaska Sen. Ted
Stevens miraculously survived
his re-election bid. No one knew how he did it.
We're starting to get an answer: He actually didn't
survive the race. Alaska is big and weird and it takes ages to
count early ballots from close races, and the state counted 53,000
ballots yesterday that put Democrat Mark Begich in the
lead.
Mark Begich (D) - 132,196
Ted Stevens (R) - 131,382
Bob Bird (AI) - 11,315
Fredrick Haase (Lib) - 2086
Others - 1858
Markos "Daily Kos" Moulitsas, who's been following the numbers closely, claims that the remaining ballots come from Democratic-leaning districts. Nate "538" Silver has more. If Begich even builds a 0.51 percent lead over Stevens (he's at a 0.29 percent lead now), he escapes a recount and takes over the seat. This would, among other things, close Sarah Palin's escape hatch out of Alaskan politics. It would also lock down 58 Democratic Senate seats (counting Joe Lieberman), with the Minnesota Senate race looking better for them every day. (Democrat Al Franken has gained hundreds of votes as the state recounts ballots, and the Republicans have shown their panic with lawsuits and op-eds trying to cast doubt on the count.)
UPDATE: From the Anchorage Daily News:
Republican Party of Alaska Chairman Randy Ruedrich wasn't giving up hope for Stevens, saying Begich's advantage could lessen as the state finishes counting the early votes.
He said remaining mail-in absentee votes "should be much more favorable to Republicans" than the ones counted so far.
But state Democratic Party spokeswoman Bethany Lesser said Begich workers are cautiously optimistic the lead would hold. She noted that the election district based in Nome, which covers Northern and Western Alaska, has not counted any of its absentee ballots yet. Begich beat Stevens in that area on Election Day, just as he did throughout Bush Alaska, a traditional Stevens stronghold that relies on federal appropriations.
Begich also won the voting on all four of Alaska's military installations on Election Day. That makes the Begich campaign optimistic about overseas absentee ballots from service members.
Kaiser|11.13.08 @ 8:15AM|#
If I were the republicans in Minnesota I would be suspicious of
the ballot count too, this could be here-say but haven't they found
ballots in peoples trunks? That, and personally I just don't like
Al Franken.
As far as Ted Stevens in concerned I would like to see him win.
Just for the hilarious factor, it would be priceless. To see him
win, get kicked out, then Sarah Palin take his seat would just be
the icing on the cake for this election cycle. Besides, it's not
like we haven't elected criminals
before. Americans seem to have a knack for that kind of thing.
jkp|11.13.08 @ 8:18AM|#
Honestly David, why do you cite to a hack like Kos?
Silver knows his stuff, but Kos is pretty useless.
Dave Weigel|11.13.08 @ 8:20AM|#
Silver knows his stuff, but Kos is pretty
useless.
Well, not on this. Kos has actually been following the race
obsessively and getting the numbers from local sources. I saw it
from him before Silver because in the post-election lull I haven't
checked Silver's site much.
|11.13.08 @ 8:52AM|#
As far as Ted Stevens in concerned I would like to see him
win. Just for the hilarious factor, it would be
priceless
Bingo. The egomaniacal asshole would probably refuse to resign,
causing a hilarious clusterfuck of having a sitting Senator in jail
and having to have Congress kick him out.
What a wondeful three-ring circus that would be.
|11.13.08 @ 9:00AM|#
Democrat Al Franken has gained hundreds of votes as the
state recounts ballots, and the Republicans have shown their panic
with lawsuits and op-eds trying to cast doubt on the
count.
Incorrect. Actually, the state has not started recounting ballots
yet. From the article you linked:
The Coleman and Franken campaigns traded shots Monday as counties completed the process of certifying their vote tallies and officials prepared to start recounting nearly 3 million ballots in the U.S. Senate race.
What's happened is that counties have been certifying their initial
results, and a lot of counties have announced that "those
preliminary numbers we gave you? We actually read the numbers
wrong, or forgot to carry a number when adding, etc." It seems that
only 22 of 87 counties have had corrections (generally larger, more
DFL-favoring counties), and that the corrections on whole have
consistently favored Franken. It's true that in some counties
Coleman has gained votes, but Franken has gained more in those same
counties. In other counties Franken has lost votes, but Coleman has
lost more in those counties.
The actual recount will start soon.
|11.13.08 @ 9:10AM|#
From my neutral corner, it does seem like Democrats always do better after the election. Why is that?
Kaiser|11.13.08 @ 9:18AM|#
Great, we're moving closer and closer to a pure one-party system.
As was said on here yesterday (my apologies for being lazy and not
giving a link) we are already in a one party system, half of them
call themselves Democrats, the other half Republicans.
Buck Hardwood|11.13.08 @ 9:18AM|#
How fitting that the dimming light of the Bush Era is lit by the slim reelection hopes of a convicted felon.
|11.13.08 @ 9:27AM|#
Bush Alaska is traditionally Democratic?
The Artificial Intelligence Party got more than 1 vote?
Is skynet self-aware?
I need some coffee, wintermute.
Elemenope|11.13.08 @ 9:27AM|#
I assume that's not the artificial intelligence party,
right?
Alaska Independence Party.
robc|11.13.08 @ 9:31AM|#
Bingo. The egomaniacal asshole would probably refuse to
resign, causing a hilarious clusterfuck of having a sitting Senator
in jail and having to have Congress kick him out.
Even better would be if the Senate Dems decided, for strategic
reasons, that it is better to have a non-voting Republican senator
than a voting one and refused to kick him out.
robc|11.13.08 @ 9:35AM|#
If Alaska is normally this slow, could you imagine if the Prez race depended on it, like Florida in 2k? "Dont worry, we will have them counted in time for the electoral college vote". Technically, that is all that is necessary, but it would be freaking people out.
|11.13.08 @ 9:45AM|#
From my neutral corner, it does seem like Democrats always
do better after the election. Why is that?
I think it's just because all the ballots that get counted late are
more likely to come from Democratic voters. I mean, absentee
ballots generally get counted after normal ballots, and in this
election the Obama campaign did a lot of work to encourage early
voting, and a lot of absentee ballots come from Democratic
constituencies anyway: college students voting in their hometown
and people with the kind of jobs they can't easily get time off
from during the week to go vote. (I don't know about the military
absentee vote, though.) And then there are the provisional ballots,
any ballot cast that isn't accepted right away because of some
problem, like lack of ID or a first-time voter that isn't on all
the lists or something. Those also trend Democratic, also this year
especially.
|11.13.08 @ 9:52AM|#
It seems that only 22 of 87 counties have had corrections
(generally larger, more DFL-favoring counties), and that the
corrections on whole have consistently favored Franken.
Actually, 3 precincts out of 4100 discovered "typos" that gave
Franken a net 500 vote gain. Just by coincidence, the precincts
that "accidentally undercounted" his votes happen to be three of
the most Democratic precincts. So there's good reason to be
suspicious.
From my neutral corner, it does seem like Democrats always do
better after the election. Why is that?
Apparently, Dem precincts/counties struggle with math?
BUT, this is Minnesota we're talking about here, not Chicago. I
have to admit I am having a hard time believing the squeaky-clean
Scandihoovians are going to have a dirty recount.
Plus, I will get to bust some major balls on my Minnesota buddies
if they send Stuart Smalley to the Senate/
LarryA|11.13.08 @ 9:59AM|#
How fitting that the dimming light of the Bush Era is lit by
the slim reelection hopes of a convicted felon.
And the Democrats are saying, "See? We managed to squeak by in an
election against a convicted felon in a race against a hugely
unpopular president in the middle of an economic disaster.
Obviously all Americans have embraced the whole liberal
agenda."
|11.13.08 @ 10:03AM|#
Where is joe to apologize for claiming that the GOP was stuffing ballot boxes in Alaska?
Elemenope|11.13.08 @ 10:04AM|#
Where is joe to apologize for claiming that the GOP was
stuffing ballot boxes in Alaska?
You know full well that the your guy winning is no proof that the
ballots weren't stuffed the other way.
It merely shows they weren't stuffed *enough*. ;)
|11.13.08 @ 10:05AM|#
Hmm, maybe we'll get lucky and he will fall off the
bridge!
jess
http://web-anonymity.vze.com
|11.13.08 @ 10:12AM|#
joe is in a Guatemalan plastic surgery clinic getting Mr.
Garrison's balls put into his knees as part of his operation to be
taller.
"Antibiotics? In Guatemala? Forget it. They give you a rat turd
with a little season salt. No. I'll do the surgery there and the
painkillers here. If I did surgery. Which I didn't."
economist|11.13.08 @ 11:07AM|#
I know he's a damn crook, but I'd rather have a damn crook of the opposition party than a damn crook of the ruling party.
economist|11.13.08 @ 11:13AM|#
On a related note, much as I dislike Norm Coleman, I will ridicule Minnesota forever if they elect Al Franken.
|11.13.08 @ 11:18AM|#
"Antibiotics? In Guatemala? Forget it. They give you a rat
turd with a little season salt. No. I'll do the surgery there and
the painkillers here. If I did surgery. Which I didn't."
"Gentlemen! I have made love...to this lawn mower!"
"My little metal boy!"
|11.13.08 @ 11:25AM|#
I think it's just because all the ballots that get counted
late are more likely to come from Democratic voters.
Though, as mentioned, that's not what's going on in Minnesota. This
doesn't have to do with counting ballots late. It has to do with
claims of bad math or forgetting to add in ballots.
|11.13.08 @ 11:27AM|#
Al Franken, bah, ha, ha, that is hilarious.
I guess it just goes to the point that some people will vote for
anyone or anything if it has a certain letter behind it's name
instead of a different letter, no matter how insane it might be in
reality. Or are we just that stupid?
bill|11.13.08 @ 11:42AM|#
Actually if Stevens won he might not get kicked out. it takes 60 votes to de-seat a Senator and the Dems only have 58. So if no Repubs cross over Stevens could serve his term in jail. LOL.
economist|11.13.08 @ 11:44AM|#
Bill,
Actually, I think it takes two-thirds of the Senate to expel a
Senator.
Liz|11.13.08 @ 1:36PM|#
I am so naive - this statement scares the crap out of me "and a lot of counties have announced that "those preliminary numbers we gave you? We actually read the numbers wrong, or forgot to carry a number when adding, etc." WTF?! This probably happens after every election....I am depressed, gotta make myself a drink.
zoltan|11.13.08 @ 1:54PM|#
I know how Ted Stevens did it. Most voters are stupid and don't pay attention to or care about who they're clicking the button for.
|11.13.08 @ 2:28PM|#
WTF?! This probably happens after every election
Nah, only the close ones, generally ones where Democrats need a few
more votes. (See the last go round for the WA governor's race, for
example.) For example, the same counties reporting better margins
for Franken in this report are reporting that their original
numbers were all fine in the other races.
The Republicans presumably have their own ways of cheating, but
finding new votes after the election seems to be a Democratic
specialty.
thoreau|11.13.08 @ 2:44PM|#
For example, the same counties reporting better margins for
Franken in this report are reporting that their original numbers
were all fine in the other races.
Is that really the case? Or are they saying that their results
didn't change in the other races? There's a difference.
Reporting that Lars Lundquist is still the winner of the mayoral
race in Quistville even after double-checking could just mean that
after they carried the 2 he won by 1503 votes instead of 1303
votes.
|11.13.08 @ 2:47PM|#
zoltan | November 13, 2008, 1:54pm | #
I know how Ted Stevens did it. Most voters are stupid and don't pay attention to or care about who they're clicking the button for.
Don't misunderestimate the love for "Uncle Ted" that many
Alaskans have. Hell, for most of them, Ted Stevens has been THE
Senator in office. Yeah, there may be two seats but Ted's was never
in doubt.
Someone upthread asked if bush(rural) Alaska traditionally voted
Democratic. This is a resounding NO (look at the Presidential
votes). The bush vote was the result of hard campaigning by Begich,
the air of guilt surround Stevens and most importantly the feeling
that Stevens was no longer "of Alaska". Many in the bush finally
realized that while his house was in Girdwood, his home was in
DC.
Someone Who Doesn\'t Want to L|11.13.08 @ 3:42PM|#
The Republicans presumably have their own ways of cheating,
but finding new votes after the election seems to be a Democratic
specialty.
The stereotype is that Republicans cheat by preventing people who
should be able to vote from voting (or by throwing out votes). The
Democratic stereotype is to cheat by allowing people who shouldn't
be able to vote to vote (or by adding votes). These may or may not
be entirely accurate, but that's the way the "we wuz robbd!"
factions of each party talk.
Republicans complain about the dead or illegal immigrants voting
and people voting multiple times. Democrats complain about thugs
scaring or tricking voters away from the polls and machines
throwing out or switching their votes.
|11.13.08 @ 4:50PM|#
"Great, we're moving closer and closer to a pure one-party
system."
Didn't we have one 2003 - 2006?
Cranefly|11.13.08 @ 4:55PM|#
economist wrote:I will ridicule Minnesota forever if they
elect Al Franken.
Has the eternity of ridicule for Jesse Ventura expired already? My,
how time flies.
|11.13.08 @ 6:02PM|#
Jesse Ventura was an entertainer who turned politician. Nothing
unprecedented about that.
Al Franken is an entertainer playing politician. He freaks me out.
He's a jerk in person, he's not funny, and his claim to fame is
that he looks like a parody of a talking head.
Zeke|11.14.08 @ 2:23AM|#
Oh I see, Ventura actually BECAME a politician, while Franken is
"playing" one.
Lamest. Argument. Ever.
Ed|11.14.08 @ 5:43AM|#
Kaiser: "If I were the republicans in Minnesota I would be
suspicious of the ballot count too, this could be here-say but
haven't they found ballots in peoples trunks?"
Apparently not. The story is either a misunderstanding or made
up.
http://www.minnpost.com/davidbrauer/2008/11/12/4565/minneapolis_election_director_speaks_ballots_in_my_car_story_false
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