Poll Closings at 8 p.m.: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee

David Weigel | November 4, 2008

The Barr partygoers I'm talking to are really hoping for a McCain loss, but I should probably check my sample size.

CNN is playing at the Barr party, and it's infuriatingly wimpy at calling races. Their exit poll shows Obama clobbering McCain by better than 10 points in New Hampshire, and no one at the party (who's not on the phone) realizes it.

I told Barr campaign manager Russ Verney about MSNBC's and ABC's Pennsylvania calls. "That's not a surprise, is it?" he said. I pointed out that McCain had spent much of the past two weeks there. "Like I said, it's not a surprise."

I'm hearing that John Sununu lost in New Hampshire, so I tell Barr blogger Jason Pye. "His comment a few years ago about the Military Commissions Act, that the Constitution is not a suicide pact? I lost all respect for him on that. The Constitution is not a suicide pact. Our foreign policy is."

I can't hear CNN in here, but at some point people are going to notice that the Bradley Effect did not exist. It simply didn't. Obama's on track to win the biggest Democratic victory in Pennsylvania since 1964. And whoever you're rooting for, that's fantastic - white voters did not lie to the pollsters to cover up their racism.

Florida Republican Rep. Ric Keller, one of the only Republicans to vote against the Iraq surge, has been defeated.

And... Elizabeth Dole. Bestower of the 21-year old drinking age. Creator of a TV ad that attacked her opponent for being friends with atheists. She's lost her Senate seat, and that's the last we'll ever hear of her.

Comments

|11.4.08 @ 8:19PM|#

Actually I'm hoping both McCain and Obama will lose. That's why I voted for Barr. Duh. Of course it's not going to happen, but this isn't a horse race so I'm not losing any worse for not correctly guessing the winner in advance.

EJM|11.4.08 @ 8:19PM|#

Just to avoid confusion, polls in Ohio, West Virginia, and North Carolina closed at 7:30--and polls in Arkansas will close at 8:30 (ET).

(full map here)

Ironic|11.4.08 @ 8:28PM|#

"Actually I'm hoping both McCain and Obama will lose."

So am I but Obama scares me more than McCain and the reason is because of the enthusiasm of the Obama zombies. McCain has "supporters" but most of them are lukewarm supporters at best. It is better to have a president who does not have very enthusiastic support from a significant part of the population. A lukewarm supporter will oppose the president when he /she thinks the president is wrong. I don't think the Obama zombies would.

Craig|11.4.08 @ 8:35PM|#

Looks like Barr is on track for a vote total between 500,000 and 600,000 votes nationally, based on early returns. (Unless he does significantly better in the West, which is possible I guess.)

CBSNews.com has the national popular vote total, including third party types here:

http://election.cbsnews.com/election2008/president.shtml

USAToday.com has a combined "Others" category in their national results, but if you scroll down in the state-by-state results you can find the other candidates listed.

CNN.com is pretending there are only 2 candidates on the ballot everywhere. I sent them feedback indicating an editorial error for missing content in their coverage, and will be tuning them out (TV and web) for the rest of the night.

|11.4.08 @ 8:35PM|#

A lukewarm supporter will oppose the president when he /she thinks the president is wrong. I don't think the Obama zombies would.

It is kinda creepy. Fortunately his supporters are Americans. They'll turn on him faster than a turbocharged barbecue spit as soon as it becomes apparent that "change" will only happen at the margins.

In small increments.

|11.4.08 @ 8:38PM|#

Dole loses North Carolina - its a dem sweep...

|11.4.08 @ 8:39PM|#

Speaking of Obama zombies... whaddya think about the Bush variety?

Ironic|11.4.08 @ 8:39PM|#

"They'll turn on him faster than a turbocharged barbecue spit as soon as it becomes apparent that "change" will only happen at the margins."

I hope you are right. But I have been involved in politics since Perot ran the first time. I have NEVER seen this kind of devotion from political supporters. It is like they would be willing to throw themselves in a burning pit if it would help Obama win an electoral vote. Somehow I think it would take a lot for him to loose their trust.

Craig|11.4.08 @ 8:41PM|#

The national popular vote totals are surprisingly close, given the expected "blowout". With over 10% of the vote already in, it's pretty much a dead heat:

D Barack Obama 50% 7,292,680
R John McCain 50% 7,278,716
LB Bob Barr 0% 63,627
I Ralph Nader 0% 35,828
I Chuck Baldwin 0% 12,320
GR Cynthia McKinney 0% 4,341
AI Alan Keyes 0% 1,425
SX Gloria La Riva 0% 1,042

|11.4.08 @ 8:42PM|#

Craig-

Libertarians almost always do strongest, about 2-3 times better, in the Mountain West, but who knows how Baldwin could affect that. There's also Ron Paul in Montana, who will almost certainly suck all the wind out of Barr's vote totals there. Sadly, I have to predict he loses to Nader, and cracks Ed Clark's vote totals but not percentage.


In other news, looks like Barr didn't flip Georgia. No big surprise there.

Ironic|11.4.08 @ 8:42PM|#

"Dole loses North Carolina - its a dem sweep..."

I have mixed feelings about that loss. On the one hand I am glad she got some kind of punishment for that dastardly commercial. On the other hand she did vote against the Bailout. I have to give her a lot of points for voting against the bailout.

Craig|11.4.08 @ 8:45PM|#

I'm surprised no one's calling Virginia and Georgia for McCain, given how far ahead he is. I'm also surprised that Obama is leading in North Carolina with so much of the vote already counted. I guess it all depends on which areas report their results first....

|11.4.08 @ 8:45PM|#

Is there any place showing non-two-party results on Senate and Governors? I'm particularly interested in Mike Munger in NC.

Looks like Alan Buckley won't be forcing a run-off in Georgia. With 20%, Chambliss is at 59% and everyone's called him as re-elected. What a shame

Ironic|11.4.08 @ 8:46PM|#

Is North Carolina actually going to go for Obama? WTF? Does McCain have a chance if it does?

|11.4.08 @ 8:46PM|#

Looking at the county breakdown on CNN for Virginia, a good majority of those still not in are NOVA, where Obama will no doubt do best. That's why they're holding off.

|11.4.08 @ 8:49PM|#

CNN has 4% for "other" for NC Gov. That's great news for Mike Munger, since he's the only "other" candidate on the ballot.

BDB|11.4.08 @ 8:51PM|#

Richmond and Petersburg have not come in. Most of Hampton Roads isn't in. NoVA isn't in.

ALL of McCain's big counties in VA have been called. This is about the apex of his margin.

|11.4.08 @ 9:23PM|#

With 22% of the vote tallied, boston.com is showing the marijuana decriminalization measure PASSING at 65%.

Aly|11.4.08 @ 9:38PM|#

Newsy.com had such a cool video, where they're talking about the 'Reverse Bradley Effect'. Totally different insight!

yingge|11.4.08 @ 10:26PM|#

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