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Ohio Goes for Obama
Fox News is calling Ohio for Obama, which means it's really all over for McCain.
Let the post-game analysis begin.
Bingo|11.4.08 @ 9:25PM|#
I am totally shocked and surprised because I thought McCain could win this!!!!
joe|11.4.08 @ 9:27PM|#
All righty then.
Funny we still haven't heard about Virginia, but Ohio flips.
Bingo|11.4.08 @ 9:30PM|#
Keep in mind its in the networks best interest to keep beating the "OMG it's still undecided" drum for as long as possible. Ad revenue, ya know?
BDB|11.4.08 @ 9:31PM|#
Joe--
VA will be like the 2006 Senate race. In the end, Obama will win it
by a hair. All the Republican areas come in early, and Democrat
areas last.
But yeah. Congratulations to President-Elect Obama.
Ironic|11.4.08 @ 9:31PM|#
"Keep in mind its in the networks best interest to keep beating
the "OMG it's still undecided" drum for as long as possible. Ad
revenue, ya know?"
I thought that in 2000 as well.
Lester Hunt|11.4.08 @ 9:31PM|#
Well, at least we might not end up bombing the crap out of Iran after all.
Kaiser|11.4.08 @ 9:31PM|#
Mr. Nice Guy
How can they call it this early?
Technically they can't. It is still early, but McCain needs a
miracle without Ohio, I'm talking like a McCain wins California
kind of miracle.
Bingo|11.4.08 @ 9:32PM|#
Remember 1948? Anyone?
No because it's a completely different scenario. People comparing
this to past elections are retarded.
|11.4.08 @ 9:33PM|#
That really does absolutely seal it because the west coast and Hawaii represent 77 EV's that will, without a shred of doubt, go to Obama. Adding those to the states MSNBC has called so far gives him 272.
BDB|11.4.08 @ 9:34PM|#
The fat lady sings in Virginia.
NLS calls it for BHO.
http://notlarrysabato.typepad.com/doh/2008/11/barack-obama-wi.html
Hes been right about every statewide race since 2001. He's also a
borderline PUMA.
|11.4.08 @ 9:36PM|#
It is still early, but McCain needs a miracle without
Ohio
Only a miracle involving one of the west coast states would work
now -- see above -- and that simply is not going to happen
damon|11.4.08 @ 9:37PM|#
Gentlemen, I hope you're all ready to wage an ideological war of
philosophies... because the next four years are going to be very
difficult for libertarian minded individuals.
Will the GOP come to its senses and return to more libertarian
roots, or is the three legged stool truly fractured forever?
Mr. Blather|11.4.08 @ 9:38PM|#
Lester Hunt | November 4, 2008, 9:31pm | #
"Well, at least we might not end up bombing the crap out of Iran
after all."
Ummm, guess again:
"The threats to Israel security begin in Sderot, but they don't end
there. They include outrageous acts of terror like the attack we
just saw yesterday in Jerusalem. Rearming Hezbollah in Lebanon and
an Iranian regime that sponsors terrorism, pursues nuclear weapons
and threatens Israel's existence. A nuclear Iran would pose a grave
threat and the world must prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear
weapon."
--Barak Obama, speech in Sderot, Israel, July 2008
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/23/us/politics/23text-obama.html?_r=2&oref=slogin&ref=politics&pagewanted=print&oref=slogin
Barack Obama|11.4.08 @ 9:42PM|#
I would like to thank the Dalas Cowboys and the cast of "Who Framed Roger Rabit" for their support.
Bingo|11.4.08 @ 9:42PM|#
Damon: we're fucked because the GOP beat the free market drum while creating policies that benefited their big-business donors without freeing up the market. Public opinion is against "capitalism" as the GOP has defined it. We're AT LEAST 12 years out from any sort of libertarian turnaround, if there ever is one within our lifetime.
Derrick|11.4.08 @ 9:44PM|#
Will the GOP come to its senses and return to more
libertarian roots, or is the three legged stool truly fractured
forever?
When can we forget about the GOP and move on?
Republican with elephant-like |11.4.08 @ 9:45PM|#
Remember 2000? Anyone?
I do. I demand a recount of the ballots. I demand that they keep
recounting them until we get the results that we want.
damon|11.4.08 @ 9:45PM|#
@Bingo:
Then where can we go? What can we do? We have to fight loudly to
wrestle the definition of liberty away from the Republicans, we
have to be out there, confronting, convincing, evangelizing.
This is an important moment. It is time for us to put up or shut
up.
SIV|11.4.08 @ 9:45PM|#
If Obama wins VA I look forward to a months worth of long,
rambling, educational elitist, html-free, often drunken comments
from Mr. Nice Guy Crow Eating Dumb Ass.
|11.4.08 @ 9:46PM|#
Looks like the LP's strongest major races are Mike Munger (4%
for NC Gov) and Alan Buckley (5% GA Sen, with 10% in the
under-30s)
Not looking all that great for Barr.
|11.4.08 @ 9:48PM|#
Long?
Yes, I do believe in paragraphs as well as predicates and
subjects.
But I don't think CEDA is going to have appear here.
|11.4.08 @ 9:48PM|#
Bingo, Damon: I look at it like this. They looked at Goldwater as a nut, but he eventually got a movement going. While the libertarian movement isn't dead, we're going into the wilderness for a bit. I hope you have your camping gear packed, because we're going to be out here for a while. Also, I think the best we can do is push the whole we-like-teh-gey-and-teh-latino meme as hard as possible. While that won't pull the social cons, I think we could pull a lot of the economic conservatives (who really don't care much about social issues, anyway) and the independents. That said, we're going to be out here for a few years. Know a nice place were I can celebrate my 30th birthday out here? LOL
|11.4.08 @ 9:50PM|#
@ Bingo: James K. Galbraith's latest book mentions the exact point you're talking about...and uses it as a sign that since we're all socialists now, mind as well use it for "the people." Oh, can I say it really sucks to be dissing a fellow brother for the next 4-8 years? That'll make for some fun Thanksgivings.
|11.4.08 @ 9:51PM|#
Damon: Gentlemen, I hope you're all ready to wage an ideological
war of philosophies... because the next four years are going to be
very difficult for libertarian minded individuals.
Will they be any more difficult than the past 8 years?
BDB|11.4.08 @ 9:51PM|#
MNG, can I raise the stakes on the wager?
Oh please oh please oh please.
In the counties that have come in so far, it looks just like the
Kaine/Kilgore race.
I'll let you get out if it now MNG, or you can raise it.
|11.4.08 @ 9:52PM|#
No Suffolk and Charles City numbers.
Only 26% from Fairfax, yeah I'm a lil' nervous.
But McCain's been keeping his lead throughout...
|11.4.08 @ 9:52PM|#
Heh. I forgot the other night to give the best punchline of the
entire deal.
With a Democratic Congress McCain was never going to get
authorization or even a figment of international political support
(besides perhaps Sarkozy) for airstrikes against Iran.
Obama very well might.
So again, good job guys.
|11.4.08 @ 9:53PM|#
Figures. I move out of VA and it becomes a politically exciting
state.
MD will be exciting nationally maybe in 2030...
BDB|11.4.08 @ 9:53PM|#
MNG--
This is just like 2005 Kaine/Kilgore.
The Reps take a big lead, then NoVA dumps its numbers and the Dem
pulls ahead. Good luck, Crow Eating Dumbass.
damon|11.4.08 @ 9:55PM|#
I don't know about you guys, but I blame this election on everyone but myself.
Kaiser|11.4.08 @ 9:58PM|#
I wonder if after tonight, anyone will actually be willing to
admit the "Bradley Effect" never existed in the first place?
I also was wondering if anyone else noticed that Joe Biden won the
Senate race in Delaware?
BDB|11.4.08 @ 10:00PM|#
Yeah, NoVA holds back its votes on purpose to demonstrate its electoral power so it gets more road funding.
BDB|11.4.08 @ 10:05PM|#
Obama in the lead now in VA, MNG.
And all the "red" counties have fully reported.
BDB|11.4.08 @ 10:17PM|#
LOL@VA Beach. It will be tied.
Fairfax, Loudoun, and Prince William have yet to fully come
in.
This is like EVERY statewide race in VA these days. The Democrats
pull it out when NoVA dumps its #s.
|11.4.08 @ 10:26PM|#
congrats joe. your guy is in. now we'll see what he does with
the power he craves so badly.
I hope you have the courage to stick around this forum for the next
few years to try and logically and consistently support the
policies your candidate enacts while he starts compromising,
appeasing, and floundering (like all presidents end up doing)
Beware, young Icarus.
|11.4.08 @ 10:27PM|#
Give it up MNG, VA was over a long time ago. States fall along a
spectrum of blueness / redness that you can pretty much rank from
one end to the other. Now how that relates to the actual vote
changes from year to year based on the specifics of the given
election (their place on the spectrum changes too over time, but
that is a much longer term and slower movement). When IN turned out
to be the fulcrum, so to speak, the tossup that could fall either
way, then it meant that states which were "bluer" than IN were
pushed to the Obama side of the ledger for this particular
election. That includes VA, NC, FL - all of which will go to
Obama.
Sure, if some states are very close to the same level of blueness
and end up being toss-ups then one might go one way and one
another, but as long as there is a distinct spread between them,
the likelihood of a movement in the blue direction in one state
(say IN) that isn't represented in the others that are, again
"bluer" (VA, NC, FL) is small.
joe|11.4.08 @ 10:37PM|#
OK, how's this: if Obama wins by taking the dark blue states
plus Ohio, Iowa, and New Mexico, (and even if you add Indiana to
that list) it means this:
The map has barely changed. The Democrats are strong in the
northeast, the industrial midwest, the upper plains states, and the
Pacific states. They have a barely-there sputtering presence in the
entire rest of the West, and nothing in the South. The solid South
includes Virginia, Florida, West Virginia, Louisiana, and Arkansas.
The southwest is strongly Republican, the mountain west even
moreso, and Missouri is part of the Oklahoma/Kansas/Nebraska
Republican lower plains strongholds, its big cities be
damned.
It's would be basically the same Bush map. The Democrats would have
just captured some of the battleground states this time, in an
extremely favorable environment. Strategically, they would have
captured some territory but stretched their lines, and it's them
playing defense in the next election.
Obama needs to win a few of the following to really demonstrate
that a major shift has taken place in the electorate: Virginia,
Florida, Missouri, Colorado, Nevada, North Dakota, Montana, North
Carolina, Arizona. If he takes any three of those, along with his
pickups in Iowa and Ohio and his win in New Mexico, the Democrats
are the majority party and the Republicans are the opposition for
years to come. Any four of them, and they're a regional party that
has to try to stage a breakout - oh, and Sarah Palin is probably
going to be their candidate in four years.
joe|11.4.08 @ 10:41PM|#
I demand a recount of the ballots. I demand that they keep
recounting them until we get the results that we want.
You can have all the recounts you want, bi-atch. It's not going to
get any better for you.
joe|11.4.08 @ 10:45PM|#
domo, didn't you hear? Barack Obama only speaks in vague
platitudes, so there aren't any actual policies he has to back away
from.
I'm going to keep doing what I always do - say exactly what I think
about what the president is doing, whether I like it or not. I
imagine I'll like a lot more of what this Democratic president will
do, because, you know, I broadly agree with his political
outlook.
Brian Courts, I was just explaining that to someone. Actually, I
was doing it a couple of hours ago, when Indiana didn't get
called.
BDB|11.4.08 @ 10:46PM|#
Joe, this is what Obama can do to make me feel safe--
Sec. of Defense--Chuck Hagel
Sec. of State--Dick Lugar
Sec. of Treasury--Robert Rubin
joe|11.4.08 @ 10:48PM|#
You know, a boring white guy from the South whose politics are
indistinguishable from John McCain - thus eviscerating the McBush
argument - and who is just ok at giving a speech, and who didn't
have much of a background in organizing, and who wasn't as keen on
the importance of legal defenses of voting rights, and who quite
frankly isn't the sort of person who would have stuck his neck out
and opposed the Iraq War in 2003, would have won by 9 point.
No, 20. No, a zillion.
|11.4.08 @ 10:49PM|#
Picking Hagel would be a great idea.
If the GOP had ANY brains they would run Jindal in 12 (but alas,
his stellar educational background may make him unpalatable to
them).
|11.4.08 @ 10:50PM|#
I will note that Obama is, as I argued, underperfoming the Senate candidates around the country.
|11.4.08 @ 10:54PM|#
Fox News calls VIRGINIA for OBAMA.
That means the only mathematical possibility for McCain now
requires winning CA. And that means the election will be called at
8:00 PST when CA is called for Obama.
joe|11.4.08 @ 10:54PM|#
Hell, if he's going to have a Republican Secretary of Defense,
just keep Gates on. He's doing a fine job, he's a good soldier, and
it would eliminate the transition drama.
No drama Obama.
BDB|11.4.08 @ 10:56PM|#
Joe--
Gates would make me feel safe, too.
I just hope he brings in the Clinton economic people.
joe|11.4.08 @ 11:12PM|#
So, it occurs to me: we just elected a black man to be
President.
Has there ever been a country that wasn't majority-black that did
that?
Certainly, none of the European countries.
Are we the first?
USA! USA!
joe|11.4.08 @ 11:16PM|#
OK, I'll take it out for one last spin:
His professional background and charitable work would seem to make
Secretary of Education a natural fit for Bill Ayers.
But then, I understand he's done some work at the Pentagon as
well.
yo mama|11.4.08 @ 11:50PM|#
So, it occurs to me: we just elected a black man to be
President.
Has there ever been a country that wasn't majority-black that did
that?
Yeah. The US of A back in '92.
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