David Weigel | August 8, 2008
Bob Barr held a conference call with bloggers this week; I asked what he made of his former Republican colleagues in the House protesting the congressional recess and making speeches to an empty room about the need for offshore drilling.
My reaction to that is the same as my reaction to President Bush's repeal of the 1991 executive order that his father signed, that made it even more difficult than pre-existing legislation to engage in offshore drilling. I commend the president. Where has he been for seven and a half years? I commend the House Republicans for finally standing up and doing something, but where have they been for the last seven and a half years? Are they serious about this or has this been an action taken to gain some headlines in advance of the Democratic and Republican conventions. The timing is, to be honest, a little suspect. But all of that being said, it's good that they're finally doing something. But to do something that will improve their standing in the polls before the election, I expect that will take more than standing on the House floor making speeches with the power turned off. It would take a lot more than that to create an agenda that will win them votes.
Barr was actually there for the first two years of the period he's talking about, of course, but I got his point. More Barriana here.
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It's a good thing that we have a man lIke Bob Barr to provide us
with this kind of insight into the Republicans' transparently
opportunistic actions. A man of great integrity whose own campaign
is a devotional crusade to personal principals that are almost six
months old now. A man not acting in any way opportunistically to
hobble his former parties own presidential campaign.
Barr is a consummate politician.
*Pictures Bob Barr poking himself in the forehead with his right
pointer finger*
"Where were you 7 and a half years ago buddy?"
Who cares, Hugh? Even if he's just a robot who changed his appearance module to "libertarian", he's saying the right stuff and putting forth the right face in a reasonable, media-friendly way. I'm quite surprisingly pleased with how he's been doing and acting.
I commend the president. Where has he been for seven and a half years? I commend the House Republicans for finally standing up and doing something, but where have they been for the last seven and a half years?
Bob Barr is looking more worthy of my vote almost daily. The
government pays money to produce ethanol form corn and refuses to
collect money from oil producers to drill offshore.
Fucking stupid.
Even if he's just a robot who changed his appearance module
to "libertarian", he's saying the right stuff and putting forth the
right face in a reasonable, media-friendly way.
Ding! Barr is putting forth the message and doing it without
seeming like a complete crackpot. That's more than any LP candidate
I've ever seen manage to do.
Barr is a consummate politician.
Finally we have somebody who can relate to people without looking
like a total nut case.
Epi, T, Reinmoose,
Exactly. Barr's not going to win, so whatever is going on deep in
his heart is irrelevant as long as he's talking the talk and
strengthening the Libertarian "brand."
He may be doing it for personal gain, and yet he is still the best candidate the LP has had in many years. He's spreading the right message, and for that he gets my vote.
Kodos: We must move forward, not backward, upward not forward,
and always twirling, twirling, twirling towards freedom!
Politicians do sure like to spin.
More Simspons' goodness (updated for freshness)
Kent Brockman: Senator [McCain], why should people vote for you
instead of [Senator] [Obama]?
Kang: It makes no difference which one of us you vote for. Either
way, your planet is doomed. DOOMED!
Kent Brockman: Well, a refreshingly frank response there from
senator [John McCain].
Homer: Oh no! Aliens, bioduplication, nude conspiracies. Oh my God,
[Cynthia McKinney] was right!
Somewhat OT: Looks like Russia is invading the renegade province
in Georgia (South Ossetia). The oil pipeline from Azerbaijan runs
through an area just south of there. Wonder what effect this will
have on (russian) oil prices?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=amqPrh9oTJws&refer=home
well the PKK set the BP pipeline on fire already, so its
currently already disrupted
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601072&sid=aulMIRr6zzV8&refer=energy
Whatever. You guys can have your polished media-savvy brand-grower. I won't vote Libertarian until they front a tinfoil-hatted dogcatcher in a cheap suit who answers every question with some reference to the Federal Reserve conspiracy.
Hugh,
Would it be enough if Barr promised to drink collodal silver until
he resembled a Smurf?
Slightly OT: I guess Supply/Demand really did drive the price of oil to $145/bbl and it had nothing to do with speculation. Right TallDave? Right Matt Welch?
well the PKK set the BP pipeline on fire already, so its
currently already disrupted
Thanks for the info L-I-T. Looks like oil prices are down a little
bit today.
Slightly OT: I guess Supply/Demand really did drive the
price of oil to $145/bbl and it had nothing to do with speculation.
Right TallDave? Right Matt Welch?
MP, guessing this is sarcasm (not sure?), I would note that Chinese
demand for oil has plummeted in July with the ramp up to the
Olympics. Beijing and the surrounding areas have massive
manufacturing facilities that have essentailly been idled and more
than 50% of automotive traffic in and around Beijing has been
banned. Estimates of decline in Chinese refined product usage have
been more than 10%, significant enough to drive the spot market for
oil down. Couple that with the fact that Us demand has fallen 3% in
a July 07/08 comparison and you have significantly easing demand.
Look for oil prices to continue their march upward come October.
With oil, go long and hold.
Look for oil prices to continue their march upward come
October.
But gasoline demand in the US typically falls in the autumn, as
people stop going on vacation and running around so much because
school's back in session. Maybe this year there won't be as much of
this standard decline, maybe there won't be any at all, but it
would be pretty weird if there was an increase.
Yeah totally MP. I'm only paying $3.84 per gallon, what a deal! Welp, time to hop in my SUV and go on a road trip, gas is soooo cheap now that those damn speculators have gone away.
The Dude beat me to a similar thought.
Whatever. You guys can have your polished media-savvy
brand-grower. I won't vote Libertarian until they front a
tinfoil-hatted dogcatcher in a cheap suit who answers every
question with some reference to the Federal Reserve
conspiracy.
Didn't Dr. Paul already run a few years ago?
MP,
If you are seperating "speculation" from demand, then no.
If you are including speculation in the total demand to profit from
a commodity, then you could rephrase and get a yes.
Guy,
Speculation is a demand component of oil futures, not oil itself.
Unfortunately, since the futures market drives the spot price,
that's where the worlds collide.
Bingo,
Why don't you tell me what you'd be paying if oil had held fast at
$147 for three months? There's a huge lag between gas prices and
oil prices.
All,
When oil was climbing to $147, most of the Reasonoids were saying
"It's not speculation, it's demand!" Demand went up and down 25% in
two months? Bull-ticky. What we're seeing now is a realignment of
price with actual underlying demand. I wouldn't be surprised to see
oil back to $100 by Labor Day.
I haven't really analyzed the futures markets in oil to see just
when all these long contracts have to be honored, but my impression
is that, in the commodities markets, speculative bubbles are very
hard to maintain.
In the stock market, your stock never expires/must be delivered. In
commodity futures, your contract will always expire/be delivered on
a date certain.
If you think your stock price will be $100 in October, and buy/hold
on that basis, it doesn't really matter if you were wrong and your
stock is worth only $80 in October - the bubble can continue on. If
you think the price of oil will be $100 in October, buy a futures
contract on that basis, and oil is only $80 in October, you're
fucked - any bubble in October oil prices will pop in
October.
Caveat - its been a long time since I dabbled in commodities, so no
warranties are offered are implied.
Barr is great! And, I'm not even bothered one bit by the fact that he's a complete fake.
When oil was climbing to $147, most of the Reasonoids were
saying "It's not speculation, it's demand!" Demand went up and down
25% in two months?
I think they're probably has been some speculative component to oil
prices, but I'm guessing not that much.
We've just seen how demand has contracted in two major users over
the last few months. For a commodity like oil, where even a slight
undersupply can lead to large price increases due to the relative
lack of price elasticity, a small reduction in demand will
"deflate" that large price premium just as fast. So, yeah, I think
the reductions in recent weeks could well be mostly demand-driven,
with some bubble-popping thrown in.
Caveat - if I really thought I had any insight into oil markets and
what they would do next, I'd be trading oil from my private island,
not chatting with you folks.
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