David Weigel | May 1, 2008
Well, there's a twist: the Clinton/McCain double-reverse pander on the gax tax is experiencing actual blowback. First the general economic community pointed out the folly, then Clinton-friendly economists did, then journalists on a conference call roll the campaign's flacks back on their heels.
"Every penny counts," [pollster Geoff] Garin said, and insisted that the holiday will save $70 per driver (not $30, as Obama claims).“If you live in the center of the city it may not be a big deal.”
"There’s a real gap here of how some people see this from 30,000 feet", he continued, and how North Carolina and Indiana residents "experience it every day."
“What driving do they want them to stop doing?” he asked.
Ooh-er, take that, you beltway-bound snobs! You can imagine the wheat stalk idling between his teeth as Garin rocks back and forth on his porch and cradles his shotgun. Meanwhile Michael Bloomberg, who is an urban billionaire (and whose state Republicans favor suspending the state gas tax), adds his own spicy demogoguery:
Bloomberg praised officials who opposed the “summer break on gasoline taxes which would help Chavez, Qaddafi and other people like that. I don’t know why anybody would want to do it.”
Can the efforts of basically every journalist and economist convince people that the tax holiday his a bad idea? I feel like they can't. How else to explain this mega-pander by Hillary Clinton, caught by Megan McArdle?
Hillary Clinton wants to sue OPEC for not producing oil from wells they haven't drilled yet. Next: a lawsuit against Ford for not building us the cool flying cars we were promised in The Jetsons. I WANT MY FLYING CAR!!!!
Question: Is Hillary Clinton still a senator? Is John McCain? Why haven't they introduced gas tax holiday legislation if it's such an urgent need for the yeomen of Indiana and North Carolina? This isn't one of those "when I'm president" promises—if you want relief for summer 2008, then legislate to make relief happen for summer 2008. The only reason you wouldn't is if it's, you know, a poll-tested fraud.
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Why don't they instead send everyone a check for $100 to help
with high gas prices?
Oh, wait...
BTW, nice Metallica reference. Not their best song, though.
That poor working stiff Hillary rode to work with looked like he
was having a lot of trouble filling up the F-250 he commuted
in.
Anyway, thanks for pointing out who really matters in this country,
Garin.
Next: a lawsuit against Ford for not building us the cool
flying cars we were promised in The Jetsons. I WANT MY FLYING
CAR!!!!
Seems reasonable. That shit was promised a half-century ago.
If you want real relief from high gas prices, just dump 30 million barrels from the SPR on to the market. Then use the profits there to shore up the dollar and help finance the so called stimulas package. Plus, it'll keep commidty speculators from bidding up oil out of fear they might get burned again. Nothin' but win all around. Which is why it'll never happen.
Why haven't they introduced gas tax holiday legislation if
it's such an urgent need for the yeomen of Indiana and North
Carolina?
Seems a fair question. But I thought it was always painfully
obvious that Madame Carpetbagger's sole purpose in seeking a Senate
seat in whatever state she could win most easily was that it was a
foothold for her White House ambitions. She did next to nothing as
a NYS senator, so I'm not surprised that she isn't taking any of
her stupid ideas to the Senate floor.
Why haven't they introduced gas tax holiday legislation if it's such an urgent need for the yeomen of Indiana and North Carolina?
Ummm, because they're senators, and the constitution says that it's
a congressmen who get to introduce bills like that. That's the
United States Constitution as in "we da peeps!"
She did next to nothing as a NYS senator, so I'm not
surprised that she isn't taking any of her stupid ideas to the
Senate floor.
She's going for the gold vis a vis earmarks this year.
She's going for the gold vis a vis earmarks this
year.
Selling earmarks to shore up and reward key supporters serves her
own interests, not New York State's. And it further imperils the
state's ability to obtain any money it might actually need.
I don't understand why democrats aren't championing high gas prices. Finally something comes along that has the chance of changing people's consumption habits to benefit the environment, via the market..... oh, I guess I answered my own question.
Great question. With all three presidential candidates in the Senate, their campaigns should consist of introducing the legislation they favor.
Ooh-er, take that, you beltway-bound snobs! You can imagine
the wheat stalk idling between his teeth as Garin rocks back and
forth on his porch and cradles his shotgun.
That sounds so bitter.
Who is that person who posts here and mentions that the gas tax
should not fund public transportation, metrorail and the like? P
Brooks? Good idea. Where are the politicians who support that good
idea?
Counting down to all the people who think that reducing a tax, even
if it means that the producers of a product get to keep a little
more of the profits that they earned, is a bad thing. In 3
. . . 2 . . . 1 . . .
Is Hillary Clinton still a senator? Is John McCain? Why
haven't they introduced gas tax holiday legislation if it's such an
urgent need for the yeomen of Indiana and North
Carolina?
thought McCain had one all written up and ready to toss to the
House? Is he acting like a RINO again?
OT: Great news for the National Parks. Now if we could just get rid of the National Park System, that would be a serious improvement.
Maybe I need to break open my economics textbook, but I don't quite get this. The idea is that if we cut the gas tax, demand will rise and push the price right back to where it is, right? So...what if we raise the gas tax? Demand declines and we end up with the same price yet again? And if we raise it again? Can we raise it to $3.20 and still have a price of $3.45/gallon? I need a generic ibuprofen.
Guy Montag,
What is the libertarian argument against national parks (or
government owned parks in general)?
Calidore -
On topic joke:
Republicrat: You libertarians would allow prostitutes in public
parks!
Libertarian: What do you mean public parks?
What is the libertarian argument against national parks (or
government owned parks in general)?
Not being an official libertarian spokesperson or anything, I would
say it is because the land is best tended/used in private
hands.
There is that issue about how and what the federal government is
allowed to own, per the Consitiution and parks are not in the set,
but I will let the lawyers and constitution experts do that
one.
"Why haven't they introduced gas tax holiday legislation if it's
such an urgent need for the yeomen of Indiana and North
Carolina?"
Why haven't they introduced legislation to get rid of the multiple
regional gas formulation requirements that raises the cost of
refining gas or the requirement of using ethanol instead of MTBE as
a gas additive that raises costs or elimination of the restrictions
on drilling in ANWAR and the outer continental shelf that has
resticted domestic supply?
I'd also like to see them answer the question of how they can be so
committed to reducing gasoline costs for the public as they want us
to believe they are and also be in favor of carbon taxes or carbon
cap and trade schemes that will have the exact opposite effect on
gas costs.
voxpo,
Yea, you have that goofy argument pegged.
Somehow "evil oil" can charge whatever they please and if the
add-ons are removed, they will charge more. I wonder why they are
not charging $10/gallon, and if that silly argument were true they
would be.
It fits right in with how "teh A-rabs" are "charging us too much"
for oil, that "they are pricing it too high" as if it sits on
shelves at a 5 & 10 store with little labels on it that change
every day at the whim of the producer.
voxpo,
From the last time this came up, here
is the best posting I could find explaining the problem.
Be sure to follow the link to Arnold Kling's contribution too.
GM,
I'd also like to see them answer the question of how they can
be so committed to reducing gasoline costs for the public as they
want us to believe they are and also be in favor of carbon taxes or
carbon cap and trade schemes that will have the exact opposite
effect on gas costs.
I heard in another thread that it has something to do with breaking
people's windows.
Somehow "evil oil" can charge whatever they please and if
the add-ons are removed, they will charge more. I wonder why they
are not charging $10/gallon, and if that silly argument were true
they would be.
Evil oil can charge only what the market will bear. If they try to
charge less, they will run out. If they try to charge more, they
will be undercut by their less evil oil competitors.
Supplies are extremely tight, especially during the summer. Since
supply cannot increase in response to greater demand, gas price at
the pump cannot decrease. It isn't even as though evil oil
has a choice in the matter. If they sell it for less, they will run
out.
I should add the necessary disclaimer from the last time this
came up...
Note that the observation that a gas tax holiday won't benefit the
consumer is due entirely to the "holiday" part of it. Three months
is simply not enough time for producers to ramp up supply to take
advantage of the new 18.4 cents per gallon surplus available --
especially the three months when supplies are tightest. If the tax
holiday were made permanent, then prices would drop for consumers
as producers found it worthwhile to invest in increasing future
supply.
weigel, I think you forgot to mention Ron Paul's racist news letters...? we mustn't let that slip through the cracks.
And I should add the necessary disclaimer that MikeP is, again,
wrong on this issue. If you cut taxes on gasoline, it will cost
less. If you raise taxes on gasoline, it will cost more. The
legislature eliminated the General Excise Tax on gasoline in
Hawaii, thus reducing the tax by 15 cents per gallon, and the price
of gasoline in Hawaii versus all the other states promptly dropped
by ... wait for it ... about 15 cents a gallon. Hawaii was the
highest priced gas by statewide average in the nation, now it is
the fourth-highest priced gas by statewide average in the
nation.
Let's think of it a different way. If some thug is standing by a
gas pump pointing a gun at you and demanding you fork over an extra
buck a gallon in "taxes", and then the police roll up and arrest
the guy before he collects the extortion, will the cost of the
gasoline still be the extortion-included price? Taxes are just a
thinly disguised version of that.
1. Have you got a reference I can check out?
2. Was the supply of gas in Hawaii exceptionally tight? Had there
been an unruly run up in prices prior to the lifting of the
tax?
It's amazing how politicians can compartmentalize their
thinking. Incentives matter, when they are talking about sin taxes;
higher taxes on cigarettes obviously and undoubtedly cause lower
consumption, and they're all for that. However, they glibly call
for a reduction of the gasoline tax, while (as far as I can tell)
implicitly assuming consumption will unaffected by a reduction in
price.
I expect the price would, in fact, drop by the amount of the
suspended tax initially, for the simple reason that the
EvilOilBarons would be shamed into it, by widespread reporting of
the price differential; however, the price would inevitably begin
to climb after some brief interval. And be blamed on increased
demand.
Was the supply of gas in Hawaii exceptionally tight? Had
there been an unruly run up in prices prior to the lifting of the
tax?
Uh...dimand kurve?
Smarty-pants questions like that are a sign of socialism, you
know.
I gather from newspaper articles that this event happened in
July of 2007.
Interestingly, while Hawaii enjoyed their 15 cent tax holiday, the
average gas price in the US dropped 25 cents.
See this Hawaii gas
price history. Select "USA Average" for Area 2.
And the graph also shows that the answer to my question #2 is...
No, there is no indication that supplies were tight or prices were
rising -- meaning, of course, that the argument for why a federal
gas tax holiday won't lower pump prices today didn't apply in
Hawaii in July of 2007.
Oh, I almost forgot question #3...
3. Was the elimination of the General Excise Tax on gasoline in
Hawaii a "holiday" or was it permanent?
As I note in my disclaimer, the argument that prices won't fall
does not apply if the drop in tax is permanent.
Come to think of it, Hawaii is an excellent example for the
price effects of a tax cut.
Their contribution to the demand of the nation as a whole is small,
and their willingness to pay more for their gasoline due to
transportation costs is high. I would guess they have a completely
elastic gasoline supply, and most of a local gas tax cut would be
passed to the consumer.
Similarly, if any single state were to drop its portion of the gas
tax, most of the savings would be passed to the consumer even if
supplies were tight simply by bidding up the price of gasoline
imported from other states. (Note: Does not apply in
California.)
The federal gas tax holiday, however, applies market wide. Supply
can't magically appear from across the border.
"I don't understand why democrats aren't championing high gas
prices. Finally something comes along that has the chance of
changing people's consumption habits to benefit the environment,
via the market..... oh, I guess I answered my own question."
Reinmoose, you might actually want to ask one instead of answering
your own questions. I'm a Dem and I think about $5 a gallon for the
next 3-4 years or so would have all kinds of positive outcomes, the
best of which would be watching the Hummer fetish set whine like
little bitches. How's that?
Fwiw, the HI gas market is also skewed by a chokepoint in
refining capacity that is even more pronounced than anywhere on the
mainland.
Plus that oil provides 85% of electrical production as opposed to
the nationwide average of 2%.
I think the answer to question 3 (yes it is permanent) more or less
answers prolefeed's question.
However, the decrease did occur a step function, not a slow
continuous drop to a new equilibrium.
I would guess they have a completely elastic gasoline
supply, and most of a local gas tax cut would be passed to the
consumer.
And you mean a completely inelastic supply, right?
There are some number of tankers that offload into the two refining
facilities every month. This inflow is really hard to alter
(although potentially easier to cut off, as the Japanese found on
their four islands 65 years ago), thus creating a vertical supply
curve, right?
And you mean a completely inelastic supply,
right?
No, I do mean elastic. Admittedly it is a guess.
I base that guess on the recent development of gasoline itself
regularly running around on tankers -- due largely to the strapped
refineries in the US. I would think that one of them could stop in
Hawaii without too much trouble. Hawaii would just need to bid a
bit more for it -- an easier task if their tax is dropped.
Whether gasoline tankers stop in Hawaii is, of course, a matter of
fact or not. Any verification of the possibility?
Here
is an extremely painful to read website. But, it states
something that could also affect supply/demand equilibrium: in
addition to a disproportionate amount of oil being used for
electricity, a larger proportion of oil is refined to jet fuel than
the national average (30% vice 9%)
And here
(pdf) is a two year old report on HI energy resources. It looks
like there is about a 9:1 ratio in barrels of crude to barrels of
'refined product' that comes in.
MY FELLOW "BITTER", STUPID, WORKING CLASS PEOPLE :-)
If you think like Barack Obama, that WORKING CLASS PEOPLE are just
a bunch of "BITTER"!, STUPID, PEASANTS, Cash COWS!, and CANNON
FODDER. :-(
You Might Be An Idiot! :-)
If you think Barack Obama with little or no experience would be
better than Hillary Clinton with 35 years experience.
You Might Be An Idiot! :-)
If you think that Obama with no experience can fix an economy on
the verge of collapse better than Hillary Clinton. Whose ;-)
husband (Bill Clinton) led the greatest economic expansion, and
prosperity in American history.
You Might Be An Idiot! :-)
If you think that Obama with no experience fighting for universal
health care can get it for you better than Hillary Clinton. Who
anticipated this current health care crisis back in 1993, and
fought a pitched battle against overwhelming odds to get universal
health care for all the American people.
You Might Be An Idiot! :-)
If you think that Obama with no experience can manage, and get us
out of two wars better than Hillary Clinton. Whose ;-) husband
(Bill Clinton) went to war only when he was convinced that he
absolutely had to. Then completed the mission in record time
against a nuclear power. AND DID NOT LOSE THE LIFE OF A SINGLE
AMERICAN SOLDIER. NOT ONE!
You Might Be An Idiot! :-)
If you think that Obama with no experience saving the environment
is better than Hillary Clinton. Whose ;-) husband (Bill Clinton)
left office with the greatest amount of environmental cleanup, and
protections in American history.
You Might Be An Idiot! :-)
If you think that Obama with little or no education experience is
better than Hillary Clinton. Whose ;-) husband (Bill Clinton) made
higher education affordable for every American. And created higher
job demand and starting salary's than they had ever been before or
since.
You Might Be An Idiot! :-)
If you think that Obama with no experience will be better than
Hillary Clinton who spent 8 years at the right hand of President
Bill Clinton. Who is already on record as one of the greatest
Presidents in American history.
You Might Be An Idiot! :-)
If you think that you can change the way Washington works with
pretty speeches from Obama, rather than with the experience, and
political expertise of two master politicians ON YOUR SIDE like
Hillary and Bill Clinton..
You Might Be An Idiot! :-)
If you think all those Republicans voting for Obama in the
Democratic primaries, and caucuses are doing so because they think
he is a stronger Democratic candidate than Hillary Clinton.
:-)
Best regards
jacksmith... Working Class :-)
p.s. You Might Be An Idiot! :-)
If you don't know that the huge amounts of money funding the Obama
campaign to try and defeat Hillary Clinton is coming in from the
insurance, and medical industry, that has been ripping you off, and
killing you and your children. And denying you, and your loved ones
the life saving medical care you needed. All just so they can make
more huge immoral profits for them-selves off of your
suffering...
You see, back in 1993 Hillary Clinton had the audacity, and nerve
to try and get quality, affordable universal health care for
everyone to prevent the suffering and needless deaths of hundreds
of thousands of you each year. :-)
Approx. 100,000 of you die each year from medical accidents from a
rush to profit by the insurance, and medical industry. Another
120,000 of you die each year from treatable illness that people in
other developed countries don't die from. And I could go on, and
on...
OBAMA AIDE: "WORKING-CLASS VOTERS NOT KEY FOR DEMOCRATS" :o
DEBATE! DEBATE!! DEBATE!!!...
MikeP: They eliminated the GET tax on gas in Hawaii, and the
prices immediately dropped at the pump by the amount of the tax.
The prices before the tax cut used to fluctuate around 40 cents
above the national average and we consistently had the highest gas
prices in the nation; now we are routinely lower than several
states, and the prices fluctuate around 25 cents above the national
average.
See this to
check out how we're third in the nation for regular, sixth for
premium, and somewhere in the vicinity of 25 cents above the
national average. (Or at least we were yesterday when I did
research for a letter to the editor advocating even lower gas taxes
and removing the fucking ethanol mandate.)
The tax cut immediately dropped the prices, and kept them lower,
because the politicians at the state capitol were not raking off an
extra 15 cents per gallon. What is so damned hard to understand
about lower taxes causing lower prices? Conversely, what would be
so hard to understand about higher taxes causing higher prices?
DEBATE! DEBATE!! DEBATE!!!
It's time for everyone to face the truth. Barack Obama has no real
chance of winning the national election in November at this time.
His crushing defeat in Pennsylvania makes that fact crystal clear.
His best, and only real chance of winning in November is on a
ticket with Hillary Clinton as her VP.
Hillary Clinton seemed almost somber at her Pennsylvania victory
speech. As if part of her was hoping Obama could have proved he had
some chance of winning against the republican attack machine, and
their unlimited money, and resources.
But it is absolutely essential that the democrats take back the
Whitehouse in November. America, and the American people are in a
very desperate condition now. And the whole World has been doing
all that they can to help keep us propped up.
Hillary Clinton say's that the heat, and decisions in the
Whitehouse are much tougher than the ones on the campaign trail.
But I think Mr. Obama faces a test of whether he has what it takes
to be a commander and chief by facing the difficult facts, and the
truth before him. And by doing what is best for the American people
by dropping out of the race, and offering his whole hearted
assistance to Hillary Clinton to help her take back the Whitehouse
for the American people, and the World.
Mr. Obama is a great speaker. And I am confident he can explain to
the American people the need, and wisdom of such a personal
sacrifice for them. It should be clear to everyone by now that
Hillary Clinton is fighting her heart out for the American people.
She has known for a long time that Mr. Obama can not win this
November. You have to remember that the Clinton's have won the
Whitehouse twice before. They know what it takes.
If Mr. Obama fails his test of commander and chief we can only hope
that Hillary Clinton can continue her heroic fight for the American
people. And that she prevails. She will need all the continual
support and help we can give her. She may fight like a superhuman.
But she is only human.
Sen. Hillary Clinton: "You know, more people have now voted for me
than have voted for my opponent. In fact, I now have more votes
than anybody has ever had in a primary contest for a nomination.
And it's also clear that we've got nine more important contests to
go."
Sincerely
Jacksmith... Working Class :-)
That poor working stiff Hillary rode to work with looked
like he was having a lot of trouble filling up the F-250 he
commuted in.
I'm wondering if the F-250 might be part of the guy's problem. Not
to be an elitist or anything, but he might consider something that
gets a little better gas mileage. I wonder if he's thought of
that.
I haven't seen anyone mention that the gas tax is used to fund
highways. In that sense, it is more of a user fee. If highway funds
don't come from the gas tax, they still have to come from
somewhere. I guess we can always borrow some more. Or maybe let
more of our bridges collapse. We can go either way.
jacksmith....working class implies some of us might be idiots. He
leaves no doubt about himself, though. Especially since I've seen
him post the exact same comment in quite a few other places. He
thinks it's a masterpiece.
MikeP,
Evil oil can charge only what the market will bear. If they try
to charge less, they will run out. If they try to charge more, they
will be undercut by their less evil oil
competitors.
I was saying the same thing as a smartass.
MikeP,
So what is all so bad about the producers of the gasoline making a
better profit on it, IF your worst fears are realized?
In other words, how is it better for the government to take the
profits than the producer to reap them?
Please, skip that nonsense about the highway fund being tapped. It
is getting tapped so that inner-city METROrail users can rde dirty
on the backs of gasoline buyers.
pinko,
Reinmoose, you might actually want to ask one instead of
answering your own questions. I'm a Dem and I think about $5 a
gallon for the next 3-4 years or so would have all kinds of
positive outcomes, the best of which would be watching the Hummer
fetish set whine like little bitches. How's that?
So, if the earth cools for the next 10 years can we skip your
crazy, expensive, scheme?
Oh, just caught the last part. This is all just a fashion issue to
you, hun?
It should be clear to everyone by now that Hillary Clinton
is fighting her heart out for the American people.
Please tell me you're joking.
"I haven't seen anyone mention that the gas tax is used to fund
highways. In that sense, it is more of a user fee."
Yes it is a user fee but the fee is too high because of highway
trust fund money being siphoned off for mass transit projects AND
becuase every highway construction project is more expensive than
it should be because of the Davis-Bacon Act - a political giveaway
to labor unions that ensures that construction contractors can't
use cheaper non-union labor because they are required to pay the
"prevailing wage" (i.e. union pay scale).
That has been in effect for about 70 years and there's no telling
how many billions, probably trillions of the taxpayers money has
been wasted on inflated construction costs over that time because
of this. Not just on highway projects but ANY government
construction project.
I haven't seen anyone mention that the gas tax is used to
fund highways. In that sense, it is more of a user fee.
If it's not a private road, a user fee is a tax.
And even people who don't drive on the highway at all, or whose
"user fee"-to-highway mileage ratio is somewhere in the
stratosphere, have to pay it.
So what is all so bad about the producers of the gasoline
making a better profit on it, IF your worst fears are
realized?
In other words, how is it better for the government to take the
profits than the producer to reap them?
I don't believe I have argued that it was better that government
get the tax than that oil companies get the profit. I merely
contend that the consumer won't see a summer gas tax holiday as a
drop in price at the pump.
What is so damned hard to understand about lower taxes
causing lower prices? Conversely, what would be so hard to
understand about higher taxes causing higher prices?
I have offered many reasons why a gas tax reduction in Hawaii would
or might be reflected as a lower price for the consumer. Chief
among them is, as Kolohe noted, is that in the disclaimer at 5:02pm
that you sarcastically riffed off of.
A permanent reduction in a gas tax should result in a
lower price at the pump. I said as much. And, if it is well
advertised, one should expect it to be immediate unless there is
some serious supply problem -- which the price trend prior to the
tax being ended in Hawaii does not show.
What is so damned hard to understand about lower taxes
causing lower prices? Conversely, what would be so hard to
understand about higher taxes causing higher prices?
Repeating a comment from a couple days ago...
In any tax on a product, regardless of who nominally pays the tax,
some portion is paid by the the producer and the balance is paid by
the consumer. Who pays which fraction depends on the ratio of the
elasticities of supply and demand. With supply utterly strapped as
in the current situation, the oil companies are paying almost
the entire 18.4 cents tax today. So if the tax is lifted, they
simply will stop paying it. The price at the pump won't change
because anyone who tries to drop the price will run out of their
limited supply.
You can take a look at the "Who Pays Taxes" section about a third
of the way down David Friedman's Price Theory
chapter 7. See Figure 7-7a.
The real political issue here, that will continue to be hinted
at but never stated by the pro-tax people, is that the people who
produce or buy gas fund the transportation of people who do not. If
the highway trust fund were actually used only for construction and
improvement of public roads that would be one thing. If a majority
of that portion were used outside of WV (do they still get 50% of
the highway fund?) it would be better.
However, the fact is, that the "city people" are being carted
around in busses and trains paid for by "country people".
The other issue is who really deserves the profit from a product,
the government or the producer? I say the producer. I am sure there
are some Socialists here who will disagree.
Transportation works as a system.
Getting people off of the most congested roadways during peak
periods provides additional capacity for those who drive.
90% of the rush hour trips into Manhattan are via public transit.
Just how much of the city's land area would you devote to
additional lanes to provide that much capacity, Guy?
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