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Pennsylvania: Like Waterloo, but with More Abandoned Steel Mills
Less than 24 hours before Pennsylvanians vote in the last mega-state Democratic primary, the race is frozen: Barack Obama has closed a once 25-point poll deficit to single digits, but he can't get it any closer. SurveyUSA, the most accurate pollster of the season (I think they've only been wrong in Missouri), sees a last minute Obama surge over the weekend, but only enough of one to hold Clinton to a small win. If she doesn't rout, this is basically the end of the game: The next few states are too small (Indiana, Kentucky, West Virginia), and some are too pro-Obama (North Carolina, Oregon, South Dakota, Montana) to erase his lead in the larger contest.
The survey concluded that Clinton will finish with 50 percent, 6 percentage points ahead of Obama. The margin of sampling error is 3.8 percent. Looking only at SurveyUSA numbers and ignoring the polls that have been released by 12 competing pollsters in Pennsylvania, Obama gained ground in a week when he was largely on defense and off-message. Last week, SurveyUSA had Clinton ahead by 14 points. Monday, in a poll conducted using the identical methodology, SurveyUSA found Clinton ahead by 6 points.
All this and Clinton's running out of money. Two months from now, if Clinton cuts bait and leaves the race with the same 100-odd delegate deficit she's had since February, I wonder what we'll say the point of the long primary was. Vetting Obama? Full employment for political journalists? (Read Michelle Cottle on the terrifying death rattles of Team Hillary.) Ad revenue for local TV stations?
Meanwhile, Obama surges ahead in the all-important documentary filmmaker primary with a nod from Michael Moore. He broke his silence after she used "the F word" (Farrakhan) in the ABC debate.
You have devoted your life to good causes and good deeds. And now to throw it all away for an office you can't win unless you smear the black man so much that the superdelegates cry "Uncle (Tom)" and give it all to you. But that can't happen. You cast your die when you voted to start this bloody war. When you did that you were like Moses who lost it for a moment and, because of that, was prohibited from entering the Promised Land.
One thing Obama probably isn't worrying about is this bizarre attack from RedState, attacking Obama endorser Larry Lessig for showing a video of Jesus getting hit by a bus.
You Christians who support Obama, given the growing evidence that the body of his supporters look down on you, is this really the guy you want to support?
The whole election's going to be like this, isn't it? Jesus.
MK2|4.21.08 @ 10:00AM|#
Yeah, what is it with you right wingers and the Jesus thing? Ron Paul thought there was some sort of war on Christmas. Do Red states have lower IQs?
jmr|4.21.08 @ 10:03AM|#
When did Ron Paul mention any war on Christmas? I thought that
was O'Reilly's schtick... Christmas is in SUCH danger, too.
JMR
PC|4.21.08 @ 10:10AM|#
MK2 | April 21, 2008, 10:00am | #
Ron was the only one that spoke out about the empire. I understand
Obama shills are still in denial that Barry is for the empire and
that he really doesn't have a foreign policy himself, he will be
outsourcing it to Zbigniew Brzezinski. I don't know about 100
years, but with Obama there will be more wars my friend.
MK2|4.21.08 @ 10:11AM|#
Sorry, it's
The War on Religion
by Rep. Ron Paul, MD
"As we celebrate another Yuletide season, it's hard not to notice
that Christmas in America simply doesn't feel the same anymore.
Although an overwhelming majority of Americans celebrate Christmas,
and those who don't celebrate it overwhelmingly accept and respect
our nation's Christmas traditions, a certain shared public
sentiment slowly has disappeared. The Christmas spirit, marked by a
wonderful feeling of goodwill among men, is in danger of being lost
in the ongoing war against religion."
Read the whole thing here:
http://www.lewrockwell.com/paul/paul148.html
Episiarch|4.21.08 @ 10:19AM|#
Jesus, shut the fuck up Edward MK2.
And yes, Dave, the whole thing's going to be like this. Worse, in
fact, because people are also invested emotionally in Obama.
|4.21.08 @ 10:20AM|#
The political war seems a bit one-sided:
this weekend one Phila. TV station had a prominent Obama supporter
jousting with a prominent Clinton supporter. The Clinton supporter
(Cong. Alyson Shwartz) said Clinton had "exemplary
accomplishments." I was waiting for the Obamaista to say, "Please
name them?" but he never did. (Nor did the moderator.) When will we
ever learn about Hillary's accomplishments????
Guy Montag|4.21.08 @ 10:27AM|#
Dave,
You did not mention the kitchen/sink/kitchen sink war of words.
Maybe you are saving that bizarre exchange for later?
Comment directly to what one of them brought up:
Glad to hear Mrs. Clinton loves to stay in the kitchen. Apparently
it is not as hot in there as when she was refusing to make cookies
in the 1990s.
Episiarch|4.21.08 @ 10:39AM|#
No, you're just a bitter obsessed moron who seems to have plenty of spare time and a hardon for Ron Paul. Maybe your warts are touchy--but I don't want to know anything about what's growing on your genitals anyway.
MK2|4.21.08 @ 10:44AM|#
Episiarch
Wait a minute. How is it that Weigel can make a snide reference to
the Jesus freaks at RedState, but pointing out that an erstwile
champion of the libertarian cause was happy to exploit Jesus for
political gain is off limits? Your'e the bitter one, you
hypocritical fuck.
|4.21.08 @ 10:49AM|#
I enjoyed the radical left crowd when they were going after the radical right crowd, but now they're about to pull another Dukakis, which is another McGovern, or another whatever. It's time to learn that the dreamy-eyed,weak,clueless but inspiring candidate like Obama is a loss for the Democrats, and a loss for the country if he manages to get past the senile imperialist (but qualified, unlike Obama) McCain.
|4.21.08 @ 10:51AM|#
Once nominated, I am sure the Christers will have Obama as their
Antichrist-in-waiting de jure (#3,481). Jack Chick will furiously
scribble his vision for all to see.
All hail The Beast!
raven|4.21.08 @ 10:53AM|#
Don't bother, MK2. Episiarch will only fire off more content-free insults.
|4.21.08 @ 10:57AM|#
Obama will never get this dem vote.I am sick of all his lies....if he is the nominee hello President McCain
TallDave|4.21.08 @ 11:05AM|#
Barack Obama has closed a once 25-point poll deficit to
single digits, but he can't get it any closer
Maybe he should call them bitter, gun-clinging faux-religious
bigots again. That should win them over.
|4.21.08 @ 11:08AM|#
Hillary will win PA by a larger margin than this poll (I say 12
points with a four point spread).
Why? Besides all the usual reasons, PA has one of the oldest
populations in America, and old people vote for Hillary.
That, and Hillary never dies.
Episiarch|4.21.08 @ 11:09AM|#
That, and Hillary never dies.
She's The Highlander?
"There can be only one."
TallDave|4.21.08 @ 11:11AM|#
The whole election's going to be like this, isn't it?
Jesus.
Oh, just wait. We haven't even gotten to the good part yet. This is
just the foreplay.
I look forward to Dan Rather revealing secret 1971 Viet Cong memos
(typed in MS Word, natch) that show John McCain was really on their
side all along.
Kyle Reese|4.21.08 @ 11:15AM|#
That, and Hillary never dies.
That bitch is out there. She can't be bargained with. She can't be
reasoned with. She doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And she
absolutely will not stop, ever, until Barack's candidacy is
dead!
|4.21.08 @ 11:16AM|#
Epi,
She wouldn't be aging quite so rapidly if that were the case.
I thinking more along the lines of Montgomery Burns' mom. You
lackwit.
Bronwyn|4.21.08 @ 11:18AM|#
Go Go Gadget Greasemonkey Filter!
*blissful sigh* I do so love my filter.
|4.21.08 @ 11:20AM|#
Oh, wait. I'm not supposed to talk to you. You only post content-free insults. That's what a troll said. There's no one more trustworthy than a troll with multiple screen names.
Episiarch|4.21.08 @ 11:21AM|#
You're one to talk--you're sugar-free. At least I have sugar, if not content.
Guy Montag|4.21.08 @ 11:23AM|#
I need to go back and watch the Ron Paul Christmas ad (first pres. candidate with one last year) to soothe all of this bitterness within my bitter bitter heart.
I Heart NC|4.21.08 @ 11:25AM|#
"Less than 24 hours before Pennsylvanians vote in the last
mega-state Democratic primary"
That hurts. Penn has 158 delegates in play. NC has 115. I couldn't
care less about who wins in May or November, but please call us a
mega-state too so we can feel good about ourselves.
|4.21.08 @ 11:29AM|#
At least I have sugar
Yeah, but it's all HFCS.
Episiarch is not suitable for Passover.
|4.21.08 @ 11:34AM|#
I Heart NC, you live in a beautiful, if somewhat hick state.
Feel good about that.
;-)
|4.21.08 @ 11:35AM|#
Just take heart that your state, unlike Pennsylvania, learned to compete in a global economy instead of bitching for more tariffs.
Episiarch|4.21.08 @ 11:36AM|#
Yeah, but it's all HFCS.
It's not true, Dave W., I swear! NutraSweet lies!
|4.21.08 @ 11:37AM|#
troy | April 21, 2008, 10:56am | #
Jesus, I can't wait until november and all this crap is over with.
Yeah. Then we can start on the 2012 campaign and the "Impeach
Clinton/McCain/Obama" threads.
|4.21.08 @ 11:48AM|#
The whole election's going to be like this, isn't
it?
No, maybe the Republicans will run a substantive campaign about
Iraq, the economy, health care, and the environment.
Happy belated April Fools!
|4.21.08 @ 11:49AM|#
Joe, like the Democrats are going to be clean aren't going to
run an election about McCain's age, his temper, Keating Five,
etc.
Yeah, right.
|4.21.08 @ 11:53AM|#
Yawn. Look at the little people with their silly emotional
attachments to..
DON'T YOUI FUCKING DARE SAY A BAD WORD ABOUT RON PAUL!! I WILL RIP
OFF YOUR HEAD AND SHIT DOWN YOUR...
Er...I mean...jeez, look the fools getting all wrapped up in some
politician. Good thing I'm too cool for that.
|4.21.08 @ 11:54AM|#
The difference, Cesar, is that the Democrats will be doing that TOO, whereas sort of thing will pretty much be the Republicans' campaign.
|4.21.08 @ 11:55AM|#
I don't have a prediction for Pennsylvania.
Could be an Obama stunner, could be Hillary by 12.
No idea. I thought I'd know by now, and I don't.
|4.21.08 @ 11:55AM|#
That is if the Democrats can ever stop fighting each
other.
Which isn't going to happen until late June at the earliest.
Episiarch|4.21.08 @ 11:59AM|#
DON'T YOUI FUCKING DARE SAY A BAD WORD ABOUT RON PAUL!! I
WILL RIP OFF YOUR HEAD AND SHIT DOWN YOUR...
(yawn)
|4.21.08 @ 12:04PM|#
Yawn is the new LOL.
You know, my cat does the same thing when HE realized someone saw
him do that.
I wasn't chasing the mousie-thing. That's for the kittens.
Yaaaaaaaawwwwwwwwnnnnnnnnnn.
|4.21.08 @ 12:12PM|#
One way to look at the SUSA poll is to conclude, as they do,
that the race tightened up right at the end, from the mid-teens
(where they had it a week abo) to the mid-single digits.
I think a more likely explanation is that SUSA was an outlier that
got some funny results which put them well apart from everybody
else - who've had it in the single digits for weeks - and that this
latest poll reflects not a change in the race, but in SUSA's
polling.
|4.21.08 @ 12:13PM|#
Maybe Neil could provide us with some insight now that the level of discourse is at his level.
|4.21.08 @ 12:14PM|#
A Suffolk poll, taken the same period, has Clinton +10.
Its between +5 and +10 for Clinton, and the undecideds will go for
her. I don't see them going for Obama after all the attacks on him,
they've really taken the shine off of him.
|4.21.08 @ 12:27PM|#
Joe is right. John Kerry ran a very substantive campaign about the Vietnam War in 2004, while Al Gore's campaign coalesced around the idea that anyone who opposed him suffered from genetic defects. Go team!
|4.21.08 @ 12:33PM|#
Nobody with actual memories about those races, who is making
even the slightest attempt to portragy them fairly, could criticize
either Kerry or Gore for not running substantive campaigns. All we
heard throughout both races was about how boring and in-the-weeds
they both got. Lockboxes. Deficits. Wonkish-liberal responses to
the Iraq War. Health care.
"I'm too above it all to tell them apart" is just as much a case of
partisan blinders as "Go team!" there, Ralph Nader.
Guy Montag|4.21.08 @ 12:49PM|#
Joe is right. John Kerry ran a very substantive campaign
about the Vietnam War in 2004, . . .
Well, he was highly decorated by both sides on that one.
Guy Montag|4.21.08 @ 12:50PM|#
Is Zack doing a concert at the convention with or without Rage? Anybody know?
|4.21.08 @ 1:18PM|#
The difference, Cesar, is that the Democrats will be doing
that TOO, whereas sort of thing will pretty much be the
Republicans' campaign.
Because Obama's going to suddenly start running on substantive
policy proposals? Good one, joe.
I think we can all agree that both campaigns will indulge in nasty
personal attacks to the extent they think they can get away with
them.
Anyone who thinks that's all McCain brings to the table hasn't been
paying attention. The beef with McCain isn't that he doesn't have
anything to say about the issues of the day, its that what he has
to say is often pretty frightening.
|4.21.08 @ 1:37PM|#
Suddenly, nothing.
Quick, how many months will it take for him to withdraw
troops?
Does his health care plan establish a single-payer system?
Does it include individual mandates?
Would he condition attacks on al Qaeda targets on the permission of
the country in which they are located?
Gee, that's quite the empty suit.
I think we can all agree that both campaigns will indulge in
nasty personal attacks to the extent they think they can get away
with them.
Agreed. I also think both candidates will be on an fairly short
leash, as running overly-negative campaigns would undermine their
strategies of transcending partian bickering.
Anyone who thinks that's all McCain brings to the table hasn't
been paying attention. The beef with McCain isn't that he doesn't
have anything to say about the issues of the day, its that what he
has to say is often pretty frightening. Agreed. This is what I
was attempting to convey when I brought up those issues. McCain has
positions on all of them - they're just really, really
unpopular.
|4.21.08 @ 3:01PM|#
Your'e the bitter one, you hypocritical fuck.
MK2 wins the "unintentional irony award" for the thread!
|4.21.08 @ 3:07PM|#
Quick, how many months will it take for him to withdraw
troops?
He has said he will implement a rigid schedule that gets us out in
16 months, but his campaign has given quite a lot of wink-and-nod
signals that this more of a goal than a timetable. What will he
really push for? Beats the hell out of me.
Does his health care plan establish a single-payer
system?
No, although its kind of a mess, actually. Hard to say what he
really thinks the payer system should look like.
Does it include individual mandates?
It does for coverage of children, and I seem to recall he has left
himself some wiggle room on adults in some of his remarks. Again,
not a lot of clarity.
Would he condition attacks on al Qaeda targets on the
permission of the country in which they are located?
Apparently not, since he's indicated he's willing to bomb
Pakistan.
Really, joe, regardless of what position papers he might have, he
hasn't been running on them. He's been running on biography and
personality.
|4.21.08 @ 3:17PM|#
Apparently, he's been running on them enough for people who
aren't even involved in the Democratic primary to know what they
are.
Enough said.
|4.21.08 @ 3:35PM|#
The whole election's going to be like this, isn't it?
Jesus.
Weigel, for as many months as you've been on the election beat, and
you're just figuring this out now? :)
Wait until joe's vaunted substance-filled general election campaign
gets to work on McCain's agedness, scandals, heiress Stepford Wife,
and Navy aristocrat background. You'll pine for the halcyon days of
Mitt Romney and Mike Gravel at that point...
Guy Montag|4.21.08 @ 3:58PM|#
RCD,
LOL! Apparently you are not supposed to know anything about Senator
Obama unless you have the proper papers to be in his party!
YAWN!
|4.21.08 @ 7:41PM|#
joe,
That's funny. I don't remember Trent Lott running on his despicable
racist views, yet you liberals seemed to know all about them a few
years back...
|4.21.08 @ 9:04PM|#
Wah wah wah.
Let's have a moment for silence for poor, martyred Trent Lott.
Chris, will you lead up in the invocation?
|4.21.08 @ 9:05PM|#
Wow, did you actually just compare paying enough attention to
what Barack Obama has said about his policy views - that he has put
out there, as part of his campaign - to figuring out that the guy
who keeps going to the pro-segregation conventions has old
fashioned ideas about black people?
I hope not.
That would be really moronic if you did. I'll just assume you were
making another point and phrased it poorly.
|4.21.08 @ 9:11PM|#
Oh, and as much as I'd like to have the Democrats take all the
credit for driving Trent Lott from power to slightly-less-power
(which is a crying shame, really), the fact is that conservatives,
from Andrew Sullivan to the Bush White House, played a very large
role in pushing him out the door, too.
But, please, don't let me interrupt your morality play about poor
Trent Lott and the mean Democrats.
|4.22.08 @ 8:59AM|#
Can't decide? Since policies are so similar, maybe their
"associations" will help.
CLINTON: attended a Farrakhan event honoring him, (Ed Rendell
praised and praised him), Rev. Wright - invited by Clintons as one
of the highly regarded religious leaders in the US to attend the
White House Prayer Breakfast, Ayers - B. Clinton pardoned 2+
members of the Weather Underground, Paul - illegal campaign
funding, V. Foster - ???
OBAMA: attened church that honored Farrakhan, Rev. Wright -
attended his church (20 yrs.), Ayers - served on a philanthropic
committee with him, he also gave support to him when he started his
political career, Rezko - illegal use of money, Larry
Sinclair??
I don't know, but I think they are very much alike. There is of
course, an age difference which probably correlates with the two
choices: CHANGE or EXPERIENCE! Still isn't any easier to
decide!
|4.22.08 @ 9:22AM|#
Clinton put out an ad using war figures and Osama Bin Laden in an effort to show she is strong on national defense. IF HER HUSBAND HAD CAPTURED OSAMA BIN LADEN WHEN HE KNEW WHERE HE WAS, WE WOULDN'T BE IN THE SITUATION WITH ALQUEDA THAT WE ARE TODAY.
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