David Weigel | March 24, 2008
The
Clinton campaign: Where
bad spin goes to die.
Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana, who backs Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton for president, proposed another gauge Sunday by which superdelegates might judge whether to support Mrs. Clinton or Senator Barack Obama.
He suggested that they consider the electoral votes of the states that each of them has won.
“So who carried the states with the most Electoral College votes is an important factor to consider because ultimately, that’s how we choose the president of the United States,” Mr. Bayh said on CNN’s “Late Edition.”
His candidate, you'll recall, is a die-hard supporter of the Electoral College. Um...
Senator-elect Hillary Rodham Clinton began a victory tour of upstate New York Friday by calling for elimination of the Electoral College.
At an airport news conference, the first lady said she would support legislation seeking a constitutional amendment providing for the direct election of the president.
To be fair, Clinton was arguing that at a point when it was politically advantageous. Now, arguing for the Electoral College as the no-frills determinent of success is politically advantageous. It's the latest phony argument to Trojan Horse over the real case against Obama: that he can't win the election because the country is mostly white and Obama's lost his race transcending Infinity Gem.
If Clinton cudgels Obama and takes the nomination, why does she think she can still win this thing? Is she counting on John McCain to be revealed as a member of a radical black church? We probably would have found that out by now.
The New York senator said the panel should be led by financial experts such as Robert Rubin, who was treasury secretary in her husband's administration, and former Federal Reserve chairmen Alan Greenspan and Paul Volcker.
UPDATE: This is less inconsistent, but still pretty silly. Clinton today:
Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton called on President Bush on Monday to appoint "an emergency working group on foreclosures" to recommend new ways to confront the nation's housing finance troubles.
The New York senator said the panel should be led by financial experts such as Robert Rubin, who was treasury secretary in her husband's administration, and former Federal Reserve chairmen Alan Greenspan and Paul Volcker.
That would be this Robert Rubin:
The company of errant, if lavishly compensated, navigators includes none other than Rubin himself. Last fall, the former Treasury secretary confessed to Fortune magazine that until the mortgage storms broke over his head in the summer of 2007, he was unfamiliar with the kinds of complex mortgage structures with which Citi's own balance sheet was packed. Almost certainly, the gulf between competence and compensation on Wall Street has never been wider.
If Clinton was forming a committee on winning baseball games, I assume she'd appoint Bill Buckner.
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Obama's lost his race transcending Infinity Gem
Not according to some of his admirers.
The spin here is disingenuous, of course, but it's not hypocritical. She can support the elimination of the Electoral College at the same time as she argues that she will perform better in the College in the '08 election.
This would be like hiring Mike Brown to consult the government
on disaster management.
Man, wouldn't that be nuts?
...Wait...WHAT?!?
If Clinton cudgels Obama and takes the nomination, why does
she think she can still win this thing?
I think the thinking is, that by now even the most inbred of the
neocon 'base' is becoming disillusioned with endless war and a
failing economy (apparently, we need to stop trading and give more
people more money) that the Democrats can't possibly lose another
election.
Is it just me that sees Hillary getting uglier and uglier
whenever things don't go her way? She was not an attractive person
to begin with (I'm NOT referring to physical beauty), now the
#$@*& woman just disgusts me.
Does anybody reading this forum think that Ms. Clinton will concede
gracefully?
Anyone?
Even taking Clinton's electoral college/primary argument at face
value it makes absolutely no sense if you think about it for about
three seconds. It's not like the people who voted for Clinton in
California and New York are all going to jump ship to McCain in the
general if Obama's the nominee.
Some pundit was on CNN (I think; it was on TV while I was waiting
at the bank) this morning going through a list of states where John
Kerry won the primary handily then got his ass kicked by Bush in
the general.
She's getting worse and worse at campaigning. A couple more desperate reaches and she'll be endangering her political future altogether. Amazing that people ever voted for her for any office. Even Bill sounds stupid these days.
J sub D,
I'm confident she will behave gracefully once she concedes, but
with ungraciously hang in there, screwing her party by whacking at
Obama, long past the time when an exit would be timely.
"Does anybody reading this forum think that Ms. Clinton will
concede gracefully?
Anyone?"
I'm hoping she'll eventually be shamed into conceding, but she
won't do it gracefully. That way she'll hopefully engender enough
ill will that we won't have to see her in 2012 or 2016.
Just wishful thinking, I know....
Some pundit was on CNN (I think; it was on TV while I was
waiting at the bank) this morning going through a list of states
where John Kerry won the primary handily then got his ass kicked by
Bush in the general.
The most obvious one is Iowa, where the Democratic ticket that
included the TOP TWO finishers in the caucus lost to Bush anyway.
And then Kerry locked up the nomination on a series of Tuesdays in
states that went for Bush - Virginia, Ohio, Texas, etc.
I've been predicting that Clinton will drop out sooner than anyone expects (to be fair to me, that will be any time before the general election), but I am certain that her concession will be very graceful. She is a pro.
Wasn't Greenspan (along with Bill Clinton) one of the ones who encouraged subprime loans? If he helped cause the problem, he might not be the best person to try to fix it.
I'm confident she will behave gracefully once she concedes,
but with ungraciously hang in there, screwing her party by whacking
at Obama, long past the time when an exit would be
timely.
Part of the reason she feels she can get away with this is that she
considers her NY Senatorial seat as a done deal, and to a certain
degree she's right.
If she really felt that continuing this could end her political
future she would stop, or at least not hang in way too long, but
she's not worried.
At an airport news conference, the first lady said she would
support legislation seeking a constitutional amendment providing
for the direct election of the president.
I had no idea she was of this opinion. She must be stopped.
Wasn't Greenspan (along with Bill Clinton) one of the ones
who encouraged subprime loans?
He encouraged people to take out ARMS in testimony to Congress - at
a time that fixed rate mortgages were at record lows.
The "sub-prime" problem isn't actually a sub-prime problem. Most of
the homes in foreclosure weren't bought with sub-prime loans.
Buckner joke was absolutely go&@^^#& uncalled for. You some kinda closet Mets fan or something?
Happy thoughts, Matt.
Dave Roberts. Josh Beckett. Papelbon hitting 100 mph in
October.
Bill Buckner, a 22 year major leaguer, and a five time MVP vote
getter, could wipe the floor with your sniveling hide.
Besides, Calvin Schiraldi lost that series.
The more these two statist piranhas tear each other apart, the happier I am. Now, if we could only do something about McCain...
McCain will start self-destructing once the Dem nomination is done. Just you wait, and have the popcorn ready.
If Clinton was forming a committee on winning baseball
games, I assume she'd appoint Bill Buckner.
I assume she'd appoint Dave Weigel, since the gentleman knows
nothing about baseball. Any real baseball fan knows Buckner - a
career .289 hitter and for did not lose Game 6. Most of the blame
for the loss should go to Roger Clemens who lifted himself for a
blister. Then Stanley and Schiraldi, and then McNamara for not
lifting Buckner for a defensive replacement. Buckner was not the
goat. It's time to drop this trope, and make Clemens the goat he
always should have been.
There were only a few occasions where I could get Mousetrap to work without having to intervene at some point. I had totally forgot about that game for 10 years until now.
You mean that the Democratic Nominee is going to be "selected"
by party bosses and not elected? I am shocked!! The fact that
Florida is a part of this mess confirms that God has a sense of
humor.
The TNR has a very good article on the realities facing the
Democratic Party going into the summer and the paralels to the 1980
Kennedy Carter slugfest. It is a very good read.
http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=44aed783-8357-4491-8589-ee15290e6e96
Vanya,
I don't see how you make Clemmons the goat. He gave the Red Sox a
quality start. It is not like he walked out in the second inning.
If your bullpen can't hold a lead late in a game, it is not the
starter's fault. Also, in Buckner's defense on the play, he was
always a good defensive first baseman and the ball in question was
bounding down the line until it just stopped and rolled under his
glove. If you didn't know any better you would say God really does
hate the Red Sox.
The fact that Florida is a part of this mess confirms that
God has a sense of humor.
I don't get why everyone is getting so down on Florida's part of
this mess. How could a person call them self a libertarian yet not
acknowledge a state party flipping the bird to a centrally-planned
national authority, get slighted, then watch the national party
come crawling back when it became apparent that they were
needed.
Every state should follow this example...
I swear, I was absolutely certain that the Dems could win this
year if they ran Lucifer himself against Jesus Christ (who we all
know is a Republican - isn't he?). But, then I also thought they'd
end up recruiting Al Gore for the job.
I don't know if it's the length of the primary season, or what, but
after they way Hillary and Obama have bloodied eachother I'm pretty
much resigned to seeing President McCain sworn in in January.
Not that I really care given the field that's left.
Isaac B.,
The state of the race now, when McCain has been running his general
election campaign while Hillary and Obama are engaged in an ugly
primary fight, probably isn't an accurate depiction of what it will
look like when the Democratic nominee has had several months to run
their own general election campaign.
"I don't get why everyone is getting so down on Florida's part
of this mess. How could a person call them self a libertarian yet
not acknowledge a state party flipping the bird to a
centrally-planned national authority, get slighted, then watch the
national party come crawling back when it became apparent that they
were needed."
I am not down on Florida. Good for them for flipping the bird to
Iowa and New Hampshire. I think it is a bunch of crap that their
votes are not going to count. Fuck the DNC and the RNC for that
matter, states should be able to have their primaries whenever they
want to. They could have the 2012 primary in spring of 2009 for all
I care. But the fact that the Dems are now going to basically
disenfranchise the Democratic voters of Florida over an action
taken by a Republican governor and legilsature is just too rich for
words.
I don't know if it's the length of the primary season, or
what, but after they way Hillary and Obama have bloodied eachother
I'm pretty much resigned to seeing President McCain sworn in in
January.
No worries Issac, "reason" magazine will be putting out articles
arguing why McCain is the libertarian's choice.
And fuck you all...
HRC will hang in if (when, actually) she wins Penna. but if
Obama wins, she will end it gracefully. And then start working to
hand the victory to McCain. If Obama loses in November, then she
can try again in 2012. If Obama wins, then she will never be
president unless Obama really screws things up, which
Sen. Clinton might help to ensure. I can totally see her bowing out
gracefully while engineering a deal where she replaces Reid as Sen.
Majority Leader, a position where she can help McCain fail or pick
up the pieces of an Obama presidency.
People tend to forget that Ms. Clinton has won ALL the populous states (N.Y., CA.,TX., FLA. MI etc.) Even the Democratic Party's leaders got to see that!
Creech,
She is probably going to win Penn. The issue is does she win it big
or does Obama make it competetive. If she wins big, I don't know
who wins the nomination. If Obama is competetive and then wins
Indiana and North Carolina, Hillary is probably done and bows out
under pressure. But if she wins big in Pennsylvania and wins one of
the other two, then she has a legit claim to the nomination. At
that point where would have Obama won other than states like
Wyoming that will never go Democratic anyway and states with
African American turnout?
I think Obama post right is like French Army after Borodino;
someone who just won another tactical victory but is mortally
wounded. I wouldn't count Hillary out.
Vanya:
Your goat is:
McNamara for not lifting Buckner for a defensive
replacement
Buckner had been struggling with his knees the whole series (hell,
most of the season). As I recall, up to game 6, the Sox lost every
game that Buckner finished, and won every game that he didn't.
McNamara was always too slow to make changes during the game, and
with Buckner it turned out to be fatal.
an accurate depiction of what it will look like when the
Democratic nominee has had several months to run their own general
election campaign.
Unless Hillary drops early, the Dem nominee won't get to start the
general election campaign until after their convention at the end
of August. That leaves two months for a general campaign.
It's highly unlikely to go all the way to the convention.
Even so, two months ago was January 24. Think of all that's
happened in the presidential campaigh since the South Carolina
primary.
We should go back to the old way, and have Congress select the president, with second place becoming vice president.
I agree with you Joe, it will probably end in June. Surely the Superdeligates will beat one of the candidates into submission. That said, if Hillary wins Pennsylvania by say 15 points and then wins Indiana, I don't who exactly they will be beating into submission. Also, if it is her, her supporters are going to have a legitimate gripe.
John,
The Superdelegates have been moving in Obama's direction for quite
some time. Since Super Tuesday, he has gnetted about 44 and she has
lost about 4 or 5.
The only way they come out for Clinton at this point is if Obama
suffers an epic collapse, and even after the past week and a half,
we're just not seeing that.
But Joe, seriously, if she wins Pennsylvania by double digits and then wins Indiana and has a close lose in North Carolina, how to the Super Delegates explain to her supporters that their candidate lost? Also, I am not sure how Florida and Michigan play into this. I think that kind of sucks for Hillary that she could win all of the big states and then have a bunch of party insiders pick somoene else. Granted, there is a lot of karma going on there considering her and Bill's past, but it still sucks.
"reason" magazine will be putting out articles arguing why
McCain is the libertarian's choice.
Uh, you misspelled "Dondero."
John,
I think you need to tweak your number a bit. Hillary had a 20-point
lead in Pennsylvania coming out of the Mississippie/Wyoming
contests. I think she's need a margin in that territory for people
to really get nervous. If "a double-digit win" means 10 or 11
points, it does nothing for her. IIRC, a 10 point win would mean
about a 100,000 vote margin. Obama currently leads by 700,000
votes, not even counting his wins in caucus states that only
provide delegate counts.
Indiana has long been a toss-up. She's need to win there by more
than a few points for people to get nervous.
Obama should win North Carolina. If she even ties him there, it's a
win for her.
I'd put the over/unders at PA: 15 Clinton, IN: pick 'em, NC 3
Obama.
I think that kind of sucks for Hillary that she could win all
of the big states and then have a bunch of party insiders pick
somoene else. Why? What makes one big state more important
than three small ones? BTW, he won Georgia, Missouri, Virginia, and
Illinois. They are about even in "big states."
"reason" magazine will be putting out articles arguing why
McCain is the libertarian's choice."
That will never happnen. Reason will instead tell you how Obama or
Hillary is the Libertarian's choice. Reason could never endorse
McCain. I don't care if Lenin himself ran. If they ever did, Matt
Welch would not longer have anything to write about.
Joe,
Maybe so, but I am thinking a lot of Hillary supporters are not
going to buy that logic. Also, politics is like sports in that you
are only as good as your last game. If Hillary wins Pennsylvania by
say 12 points she will look pretty good the next day. Even a 9-7
team looks good the Monday after a win and every team looks bad
after a loss.
This is a completely biased article against Senator Clinotn again. It is very sad, because she is our last best greatest hope for the Democratic party to win the Presidency in November. There is no way that this Country is going to vote for Barack Obama. He has been running on a lot of hot air, and it has been leaking out for quite a while now. We need and want someone with Experience and integrity that can run our country on Day 1. I see Obama as a slick smooth talking opportunist, just another empty suit, with very poor judgement it seems. But than I am just another typical white person who wants a leader who is honest, qualified with integrity that loves our country, and does not want God to Damn any of it.
Oh, of course not, John. "A lot Hillary voters" will be
digruntled if she doesn't get the nod, just like a lot of Obama
voters would be if he doesn't. It's a very tight race.
If Hillary wins Pennsylvania by say 12 points she will look
pretty good the next day. It certainly works that way in the
media. Remember when Barack Obama won 11 states he was obviously
going to win, and it showed his incredible momentum, and then
Hillary Clinton won two states she was obviously going to win, and
it showed that she's stopped his momentum? The truth is, there
probably was no significant change in "momentum" during that entire
period, but the media needed story.
The thing is, I don't think Superdelegates think like that.
We need and want someone with Experience and integrity that can
run our country on Day 1. You know, like Hillary Clinton.
Joe meet Diann. Diann meet Joe. Now let's talk about that whole Democratic Nomination thing.
"This is a completely biased article against Senator Clinotn
again."
It's terribly unfortunate for her, but in this case reality is
completely biased against Clinton. A three year old should be able
to see through her argument here.
"...who wants a leader who is honest, qualified with
integrity..."
And so you're supporting Clinton because...?
"...she is our last best greatest hope..."
I thought that was Obi-Wan Kenobe.
A lot of folks complain about the hero worship and cult of
personality around Obama. There are more than a few people (such as
Diann here) who seem to have the same issue with Clinton.
If Hillary gets the nomination, it will only be through a very ugly backroom deal. That could be fun.
If Hillary was going to lock up Superdelegates with a back-room
deal, don't you think she would have done so back when she was the
prohibitive favorite?
There's a reason she started out the primary season with so many
superdelegates on her side. The uncommitted Superdelegates at this
point are, by definition, the people who didn't jump on the Clinton
bandwagon for political gain.
The uncommitted Superdelegates at this point are, by
definition, the people who didn't jump on the Clinton
bandwagon waited to cut a deal later in order to
jump on a bandwagon for more political
gain.
C'mon, joe, do you really think the uncommitted superdelegates are
a bunch of idealists? The fact that they haven't picked anyone yet
shows that they are more calculating and pragmatic, not less.
"Momentum" in politics (and sports) is like Darwinism in social
policy: a concept that's extremely useful in science but completely
fictitious in other areas of human endeavor.
If a football team comes back to take a six-point lead with 1:00 to
go in the fourth quarter, they are said to have "the momentum".
But, if the other team manages to score a touchdown in the closing
seconds, they are said to have won because they took back the
"momentum". Funny, I thought Occam's razor would indicate it was
because they scored points...but in any case, it's clear that
having the "momentum" doesn't mean much, since it magically
transfers to your opponent whenever they score points or do
something else that indirectly helps to score points.
I think they're a bunch of party people who want to assure a
Democratic victory, RC. But nice false choice there.
Given how the race looked for a solid year, the idea that staying
uncommitted was a crafty strategy makes no sense. It looked like a
blowout, so they thought they'd stay uncommitted until their votes
didn't matter? Huh wuzza?
"If a football team comes back to take a six-point lead with
1:00 to go in the fourth quarter, they are said to have "the
momentum". But, if the other team manages to score a touchdown in
the closing seconds, they are said to have won because they took
back the "momentum". Funny, I thought Occam's razor would indicate
it was because they scored points...but in any case, it's clear
that having the "momentum" doesn't mean much, since it magically
transfers to your opponent whenever they score points or do
something else that indirectly helps to score points."
Momentum is perception. For example, say a football team plays a
game and can't run the football but passes pretty well and also
doesn't stop the other team from running the ball but manages a
couple of turnovers. The game is close and they get the ball down
two with a couple of minutes to go and drive down and set up a 30
yard field goal in the waning seconds to win. Now, if the kicker
kicks the field goal, all you hear about the next day is how
wonderful the team's passing offense is and how opportunistic the
defense is. If the kicker doinks it off the upright, all you hear
the next day is how the team can't stop the run and its running
game stinks. Basically, the team played the same game in both
cases. But everyone loves a winner so they look at the bright side.
In politics this is true not even by analogy. If Hillary wins Penn,
she looks like a winner and it is more likly people will vote for
her.
John,
Regarding Borodino, it was not a mortal wound, it was inconclusive.
If Napoleon had exited Russia in September or if he had better
fortune with the weather in October then he would have left Russia
in a far better position than he did.
"If a football team comes back to take a six-point lead with
1:00 to go in the fourth quarter, they are said to have "the
momentum". But, if the other team manages to score a touchdown in
the closing seconds, they are said to have won because they took
back the "momentum". Funny, I thought Occam's razor would indicate
it was because they scored points...but in any case, it's clear
that having the "momentum" doesn't mean much, since it magically
transfers to your opponent whenever they score points or do
something else that indirectly helps to score points."
Momentum in reference to human action is a gauge of the
psychological condition of the contesting parties, in other words
the morale. Morale is real, momentum is real and so is the placebo
effect.
For an example, my Tarheels momentumed the hell out of the
Razorbacks yesterday.
I have a feeling though the twain between we empiricist and ye
positivist will never meet.
I think they're a bunch of party people who want to assure a
Democratic victory, RC.
I think this is the same thing as my "calculating and
pragmatic."
So, joe, do you think any of these hold-out supers are asking for
any kind of consideration in return for their commitment?
who wants a leader who is honest
See, I'll be polite, because I was going to mock this. But I see you want to support a candidate who was always against the delegate system and who has more experience ducking sniper fire than anyone else.
If Hillary was going to lock up Superdelegates with a
back-room deal, don't you think she would have done so back when
she was the prohibitive favorite?
Probably, but she failed and so now has to go after Obama's pledged
delegates, more than likely. If this goes to the convention, it
will be very interesting.
In the end, you're probably right--this gets settled before the
convention, and probably before the Puerto Rico primary.
RC,
I think this is the same thing as my "calculating and
pragmatic." Actually, you were pretty clear that you weren't
talking about them helping the party and doing what they thought
was best for it, but about trying to get political patronage in
exchange for their vote.
You know, like you did right here: So, joe, do you think any of
these hold-out supers are asking for any kind of consideration in
return for their commitment?
Any? "Any?" Are there "any" holdouts looking to trade their support
for "any kind of consideration?"
Yes, RC, I think there is some number of uncommitted superdelegates
who are hoping to so trade their support. I think that the portion
of the remaining uncommitted superdelegates thinking along those
lines is small than among those who backed Clinton six months ago,
when she was the prohibitive frontrunner.
Obama is our Savior and Messiah! Obama and Reverend Wright are RIGHT, God D*** america. Your "typical white person" is, as Barak says, a racist who will vote for clinton in these so called "elections". Now is the time to rally around Barak and Michelle and make them proud by appointing him President now. Democracy is really an euro centric tradition, let us recognize the value inheirent in the African Tribal system and institute Obama as our permanent leader! He can immediately apologize to our Muslim brothers for an arrogant, slave mentality thinking america. The chickens have come home to roost evil america. News Flash america - Obama is correct - all you "typical white people" are racists!
For someone who "knows" so much about the man, you'd think you could spell his name right. "Barack".
Going after the wife.
Class act.
Ah, Africa.
From what I've seen, the correlation between people who think Obama
is a racist and people who themselves have racial issues that can
be seen from orbit is just about 1:1.
Momentum in reference to human action is a gauge of the
psychological condition of the contesting parties, in other words
the morale. Morale is real, momentum is real and so is the placebo
effect.
Wouldn't that mean that the two contesting parties could both have
"momentum" at the same time, though? I mean, by that definition, if
Hillary's people and Obama's people each think that their candidate
has "momentum", doesn't that make it true ipso facto? Yet
when pundits use the term, it's clear that only one competitor can
have "the momentum" at any given time.
I don't think this is a positivist v. empiricist thing. It's a
matter of that definition not matching the actual use of the term.
"Momentum" in this sense is just a nebulous concept invented to
shoehorn a murky and massively complex series of mostly meaningless
and contradictory events into a simple cause-and-effect
narrative.
Oh joy!!! Frabjous day!!!
"The" libertarian web site is debating who is more libertarian John
McCain, Obama or Clinton.
I am gagging at the desperate nature of our hopes. How about hoping
for something possible and tangible? And a whole lot more
libertarian!!
Do we or do we not still have a libertarian/Constitutional
Republican who is still running for President?
We do.
Now just pray that client #8 is John McCain or some such equally
devastating announcement to derail our Vietnam war hero and
propogandist!!
And then Ron Paul is still being talked about because he is still
accumulating delegates ala Lincoln. If we can get by the first
ballot without a winner at the GOP convention, then things get
interesting again for freedom in America.
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