Au Revoir, Mitt

David Weigel | February 7, 2008

Katherine Mangu-Ward blogged the news of Mitt's exit, and grabbed some of the sillier bits of the speech. I was in a fairly muted overflow room (most of them had heard the news before they entered) but Marc Ambinder was there:

"I must now stand aside, for our party and our country," Romney said. "If I fight on in my campaign, all the way to the convention, I would forestall the launch of a national campaign and make it more likely that Senator Clinton or Obama would win."

Romney supporters began to boo. Others shouted, "No!" At least one woman shouted, loudly, "Why?"

"And in this time of war, I simply cannot let my campaign be a part of aiding a surrender to terror," he said.

More crowd noise: "No!" and "Oh no"

"This is not an easy decision for me. I hate to lose. My family, my friends and our supporters... many of you right here in this room... have given a great deal to get me where I have a shot at becoming President. If this were only about me, I would go on. But I entered this race because I love America, and because I love America. This has never been about me."

The crowd: "Come on! No!"

I saw what came next: old women, young women, young men ranging from the obese to the morbidly obese, streaming out of the ballroom biting their lips and choking back tears. The harder they cried, the more reporters swarmed them. I was standing next to a few friends from Ohio who saw another friend walk by.

"What are you going to do now?"

"I'm gonna, I guess, have lunch. Mourn the demise of my Republican party!"

Romney actually promised to return to CPAC for "many years to come," but all you need to look at are the T-shirts and signs around the hotel. Last year, when Romney was buying the straw poll, they were clogged with winged Romney logos. This year it's a sea of McCainiacs. People grasp their Romney signs and Mitt "mitts" like chunks of the Berlin Wall, bemused, a little bored.

There will be precious little lasting love for Romney on the new right, and this is as it should be. Romney believed in nothing but what a good president Mitt Romney would make. He promised conservatives that he would reboot the Bush era, and even today he whined that our soldiers were so, so brave "but their numbered have been reduced by the Clinton years!" The Clinton presidency promised a peace dividend: "We got the dividend, but we didn't get the peace!" It made as much sense as his excuse for ducking of the race: Yeah, Reagan had battled to the end against Gerald Ford, but "there is a difference between today and 1976. We are a nation at war." But if there was no cold war, why should Clinton have kept military spending so high. Forget it, it's Mitt Romney. It's not supposed to make sense.

I've always thought highly of citizen Mitt Romney, but as a candidate for the White House he was a demagogue and, just as often, a buffoon. Four years from now the people wetting their eyes about this race will have glommed onto someone more credible in his panders.

Comments

Danny|2.7.08 @ 2:26PM|#

Hey, I saw you hoping for Romney on the Super Tuesday videos. Since he's out, have you chosen to push him aside? I guess your last sentence there sums it up--he just should be POTUS.

|2.7.08 @ 2:27PM|#

To his credit, Romney was the only one of the field who had demonstrated any success in the private sector.

Danny|2.7.08 @ 2:30PM|#

Wow... should NOT be POTUS. It's great when you type the complete OPPOSITE of what you mean to say, especially when it's obvious.

Abdul|2.7.08 @ 2:32PM|#

You have to give Romney credit for making the most outlandish "... or else the terrorists have won!" statement ever. That particular phrase has been tied to lots of dumb stuff, but nothing dumber than this.

Todd|2.7.08 @ 2:32PM|#

Mainstream libertarianism, we hardly knew ye.

|2.7.08 @ 2:32PM|#

And to McCain's credit, he was the only one of the field to have been a POW for five years.

But that still doesn't qualify him to be President.

Roger Maltz|2.7.08 @ 2:33PM|#

I love it: Mr. Romney even flip-flopped on continuing to the national convention!

|2.7.08 @ 2:33PM|#

It was the name. We'd have been a laughing stock with a guy named Mitt at the helm. Mitt. Even my kids make fun of that name, asking whether Glove was already taken.

Jennifer|2.7.08 @ 2:34PM|#

I'm starting a betting pool on who Donderrroooo will dub the "most libertarian candidate" now that Romney's out. Any takers?

Mudkipz|2.7.08 @ 2:37PM|#

Jennifer-

It will be John McCain, whom Dondero will pretend to have backed all along.

Say what you will about those of us who backed Ron Paul, but it's better to back one losing candidate than all of them.

LarryA|2.7.08 @ 2:37PM|#

Damn. It's going to be Clinton v. McCain. I can already feel the heartburn.

Colin|2.7.08 @ 2:38PM|#

I couldn't even listen ten seconds of his speech.

I don't like any of the remaining candidates, but at least we won't be stuck with a Romney or Edwards.

|2.7.08 @ 2:39PM|#

I was agnostic on Romney till I read his speech. What a fuckbag.

|2.7.08 @ 2:43PM|#

I'm mostly glad Romney is out because my Dad has supported him all along. My Dad also supported GW Bush and thinks he's great. I love my Dad, but he needed to be humbled for his past transgressions.

|2.7.08 @ 2:45PM|#

Damn. It's going to be Clinton v. McCain. I can already feel the heartburn.

If it is, I'm voting for the losertarian. If Obama is then Dem nominee, he provisionally has my vote.

I'm a virgin Democratic presidential voter. I hope Obama will be gentle. ;-)

Tom Walls|2.7.08 @ 2:47PM|#

If Romney didn't exist, we'd have to invent him. Wait a minute, he invented himself.

> I was agnostic on Romney till I read his speech. What a fuckbag.

I will give the Huckster credit for saying "Here's a man who didn't hit political puberty in the conservative ranks until 60 years old" and for taking him to task for being weak on the 2ndAm.

|2.7.08 @ 2:48PM|#

Damn. It's going to be Clinton v. McCain.

I'll pull the lever for Clinton because there is a slight chance some good will come of this. I'll get a new Senator.

|2.7.08 @ 2:49PM|#

The Romney phenomenon just shows how petty and easily swayed the right wing media is. When he was governor of Mass he was pro choice, pro big government and often appointed Democrats and liberals to the judiciary over conservatives. But, he starts running for President and changes his position on any number of issues and all of the sudden he is their guy and everyone else in the race who disagrees with them about anything or has ever changed their position on anything is evil. Romney was an empty suit, although that quote about wealth is really good.

Eric Dondero|2.7.08 @ 2:51PM|#

Did I disappoint you or let you down?
Should I be feeling guilty or let the judges frown?
'Cause I saw the end before we'd begun
Yes I saw you were blinded and I knew I had won
So I took what's mine by eternal right
Took your soul out into the night
It may be over but it won't stop there
I am here for you if you'd only care
You touched my heart, you touched my soul
You changed my life and all my goals
And love is blind and that I knew when
My heart was blinded by you
I've kissed your lips and held your hand
Shared your dreams and shared your bed
I know you well, I know your smell
I've been addicted to you

Goodbye my lover
Goodbye my friend
You have been the one
You have been the one for me

|2.7.08 @ 2:52PM|#

Damn. It's going to be Clinton v. McCain. I can already feel the heartburn.]

It is going to be an Obama/Edwards vs. McCain/Romney ticket.

McCain/Romney will win the White house.

|2.7.08 @ 2:55PM|#

So where are all of his delegates headed? I imagine the Romney people might be a bit upset at Huckleberry and RP for trumping him in WV. Does all that Iraq rhetoric mean he'll throw his delegates to McWarhawk?

Fluffy|2.7.08 @ 2:57PM|#

Joshua Corning, breaking the drug laws.

Pass that along to the guy on the right, please.

|2.7.08 @ 2:58PM|#

John, you're right. Romney is an empty suit. Why did Sean Hannity fall for him?

Fluffy|2.7.08 @ 2:58PM|#

BTW, Weigel - "ranging from the obese to the morbidly obese"?

That seems like kind of a more personal insult than would be standard for the pages of Reason.

Hopefully this is a sign that a new era of abuse-slinging is beginning.

|2.7.08 @ 3:00PM|#

Gee, Eric, I stumbled across this and noticed that she just might not be a fan of yours:

"Dondero was Ron Paul's travel aide when Paul was running for the Libertarian Party nomination, ran his 1996 congressional campaign where Paul re-took his seat, and worked for a time in Paul's congressional office. I can say from personal experience that Dondero is a sleazy little operative, quick to insult and smear others with lies. So I thought a lot better of Paul when I heard he had ended their alliance.
.
The most persistent unpleasant rumor whispered around about Dondero himself was that he allegedly "beat his wife." He introduced me to her at the 1987 libertarian convention and she definitely had the kind of sad sack, always wary demeanor of a woman who expected a whack in the head momentarily."

|2.7.08 @ 3:01PM|#

Joshua Corning, breaking the drug laws.

Pass that along to the guy on the right, please.

You say that as if I give a shit and I am not simply watching a train wreck.

So fluffy how do you think it will play out?

Not who you want to win...but who you think will win.

|2.7.08 @ 3:01PM|#

Joshua Corndog, breaking the drag laws. Pass it on.

|2.7.08 @ 3:01PM|#

[...] young men ranging from the obese to the morbidly obese [...]

I don't care for whom Weigel shills; this is funny stuff.

|2.7.08 @ 3:02PM|#

"I don't like any of the remaining candidates, but at least we won't be stuck with a Romney or Edwards."

Unless their chosen for veep.

Leondro|2.7.08 @ 3:03PM|#

young men ranging from the obese to the morbidly obese

Sure you weren't at the Huckabee rally?

stephen the goldberger|2.7.08 @ 3:03PM|#

If it is, I'm voting for the losertarian. If Obama is then Dem nominee, he provisionally has my vote.

I'm a virgin Democratic presidential voter. I hope Obama will be gentle. ;-)

My sentiments exactly. Obama with a republican house, either in 08 or 10 sounds like the best option at this juncture.

|2.7.08 @ 3:03PM|#

Weigel - "men ranging from the obese to the morbidly obese"?

yeah, what's up with that? That sounds more like Huckabee territory.

Leondro|2.7.08 @ 3:04PM|#

Me no see why "conservatives" so loathe McCain. You'd think the Republicans would be smart enough to realize that if your current President's approval is hovering around 30%, maybe you want a bit of a clean break from that if you want a hope to win in November.

|2.7.08 @ 3:08PM|#

Joshua Corndog, breaking the drag laws. Pass it on.

Easy to accuse me of being a pot smoker...how about you put it on the line and say how you think it will play out.

Click \'n\' Learn|2.7.08 @ 3:12PM|#

Dave Weigel, BystanderToHistory.

It wasn't clear to me earlier that Ambinder was actually there, since what he wrote could have easily been obtained simply by watching TV. And, likewise with Weigel. Why not just watch TV for us?

If I were there, I'd be trying to ask real questions. Too bad Weigel's unable to do even basic reportorial functions.

Gus|2.7.08 @ 3:12PM|#

"I saw what came next: old women, young women, young men ranging from the obese to the morbidly obese, streaming out of the ballroom biting their lips and choking back tears."

What? All the men were of the "obese to the morbidly obese" variety? That's insane! Who writes this shit?

|2.7.08 @ 3:12PM|#

Leondro- i'm not a conservative, but i wouldn't call Bush or McCain conservative standard-bearers by any means, and even if they were, you don't change you core political philosophy to match opinion polls. if you're a conservative you are a conservative. besides McCain is NOT a clean break from Bush but the continuance of the same bush policies in almost all areas.

Roger Maltz|2.7.08 @ 3:14PM|#

Jennifer: Word on the street is that Eric Rittberg wants to be the travel manager for the George Phillies campaign.

|2.7.08 @ 3:15PM|#

how about you put it on the line and say how you think it will play out.

Erm...prognosticating on the Presidential race is not "putting it on the line".

I think you need a reset in your priorities.

|2.7.08 @ 3:18PM|#

i'm not a conservative, but i wouldn't call Bush or McCain conservative standard-bearers by any means, and even if they were, you don't change you core political philosophy to match opinion polls.

Ummm, the core political philosophy of most successful politicians is to match opinion polls.

highnumber|2.7.08 @ 3:18PM|#

In all fairness to Eric Dondero, when Urkobold interviewed him, he did say that he could support, in order:

1. Guiliani
2. Thompson
3. Romney
4. Wayne Root
5. Steve Kubby
4. George Phillies (with a "God help me" attached to it)

Funny enough, he said he could get behind Romney only because "he made an incredibly libertarian statement on pornography and allowing adults to decide." Dondero must have misheard him.

|2.7.08 @ 3:19PM|#

If this were only about me, I would go on. But I entered this race because I love America, and because I love America. This has never been about me.

Um, what? If it were about him, he'd keep going. But if it's never been about him, why did he start in the first place? Oh wait, I see: starting his campaign wasn't about him, but continuing it at this point would have to be. Wait, maybe I don't see. Help!

Shocking that this guy lasted as long as he did, really.

|2.7.08 @ 3:19PM|#

"Jennifer: Word on the street is that Eric Rittberg wants to be the travel manager for the George Phillies campaign."

Where does George Phillies stand on defense?

Roger Maltz|2.7.08 @ 3:22PM|#

There might be information at Phillies' geocities website.

|2.7.08 @ 3:23PM|#

Ummm, the core political philosophy of most successful politicians is to match opinion polls.

i'm talking about voters.

conservative voters who believe in conservative principals are not going to flock to someone they believe to be non-conservative just because Bush(who isn't all that conservative anyway) has low numbers.

|2.7.08 @ 3:25PM|#

Ethan - basically, he's falling on his sword for his party, which would undoubtedly be rent apart by acrimony in the inevitable "brokered convention". To him Republican = America, and since continuing his campaign would weaken the Republicans in the general election, he stepped aside.

Shame, really. I would've liked to see the Rs and the Ds tear themselves apart.

Let's be up front, though: Romney was about the best we could hope for. I expect to see reason start pimping the Hon. Empty Suit from Illinois (D) any day now.

|2.7.08 @ 3:25PM|#

Erm...prognosticating on the Presidential race is not "putting it on the line".

I think you need a reset in your priorities.

Fuck an a Randian.

This is the exact point in which you say to yourself..."I really should pull my head out of my ass."

Of course predicting how it the presidential contests are not a life or death choice.

|2.7.08 @ 3:27PM|#

bookworm | February 7, 2008, 3:02pm | #
"I don't like any of the remaining candidates, but at least we won't be stuck with a Romney or Edwards."

Unless their chosen for veep.

You aren't very literate for a bookworm. Maybe you should change your handle to "illiterate bookworm". That would be more accurate, and add a refreshing element of irony.

|2.7.08 @ 3:30PM|#

"basically, he's falling on his sword for his party, which would undoubtedly be rent apart by acrimony in the inevitable "brokered convention". To him Republican = America, and since continuing his campaign would weaken the Republicans in the general election, he stepped aside"

Howard Dean is trying to avoid that scenario for the Democrat Party. He said if the race isn't decided by June after Puerto Rico hosts the last primary of the year, he'll call in both camps and have them work out some kind of settlement. Otherwise, if the race is decided in the convention, there will only be 8 weeks to heal the split and take on the Republican candidate in the general election.

|2.7.08 @ 3:30PM|#

Fuck an a Randian.

Oh my, somebody missed their afternoon nap today.

Of course predicting how it the presidential contests are not a life or death choice.

Well, at least you didn't miss my point entirely, although I think that your sense of common courtesy is also in dire need of a tune-up.

Leondro|2.7.08 @ 3:32PM|#

How awesome would it be if Puerto Rico decided the Democratic primary. We'd be hoisted by our colonialist petard!

economist|2.7.08 @ 3:32PM|#

While I never much liked Romney as a candidate, I nonetheless saw him as the only candidate who could win AND who I could support. On the upside, no need to delay coming home on election day.

|2.7.08 @ 3:33PM|#

[Insert candidate name here] believes in nothing but what a good president [insert candidate name here]would make.

Seriously, name one candidate for which this isn't true (with standard exception for Ron Paul).

|2.7.08 @ 3:34PM|#

"I've always thought highly of citizen Mitt Romney,"

Matt, it seems that you missed the subtle point that Romney is a flaming asshole. Didn't you see him display depraved indifference towards a man with MS who needs marijuana to survive?

-jcr

|2.7.08 @ 3:35PM|#

"Unless their chosen for veep.
You aren't very literate for a bookworm. Maybe you should change your handle to "illiterate bookworm". That would be more accurate, and add a refreshing element of irony."

I don't usually make that mistake of writing "their" when I should have written "they're" instead. But I call myself "bookworm" because I like books, especially the ones with pictures in them and the ones I can color.

|2.7.08 @ 3:35PM|#

wait, puerto rico has a primary? i thought they couldn't vote?

Leondro|2.7.08 @ 3:35PM|#

If you feel bad for Mitt, you can buy your office supplies at Staples to help him get his $35MM+ back.

|2.7.08 @ 3:35PM|#

Well, at least you didn't miss my point entirely, although I think that your sense of common courtesy is also in dire need of a tune-up.

Wait a second...two assholes accuse me of being a pot head for *gasp* making a prediction and so i ask them to *gasp* make their own prediction and then you stumble in out of nowhere and spout off about how my priorities need to be adjusted. yes Ayn you need to pull your head out of your ass.
My use of the common phrase "put it on the line" is not some mystical map to my hearts desire.

Casey|2.7.08 @ 3:37PM|#

Romney's changed his mind so often, I predict he'll be back in the race this time tomorrow.

Leondro|2.7.08 @ 3:38PM|#

Wow, he's actually got his fingers in a lot of pots:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bain_Capital

Wow, it takes a Mormon to beat a Jew, no?

Fluffy|2.7.08 @ 3:38PM|#

Joshua -

I will put it on the line here and say that barring the sudden death of both Hillary and Obama, the Democrat nominee will be the President in 2009, regardless of who the Republicans nominate, and regardless of who they pick as VP.

The Democrat margin of victory will get larger or smaller based on whether or not Paul is talked into running 3rd party.

Fluffy|2.7.08 @ 3:40PM|#

Wow, Joshua, teasing you a little and asking what you're smoking is not the huge assholic abuse you are playing it up to be here.

Everybody take a few deep breaths and remember that we're all roughly on the same side, and all share the common bond of hating Dondero.

|2.7.08 @ 3:40PM|#

I will put it on the line here and say that barring the sudden death of both Hillary and Obama, the Democrat nominee will be the President in 2009, regardless of who the Republicans nominate, and regardless of who they pick as VP.

The Democrat margin of victory will get larger or smaller based on whether or not Paul is talked into running 3rd party.

YAY!

Thank you for the prediction Fluffy. I take back all the mean things I have said about you.

|2.7.08 @ 3:41PM|#

"While I never much liked Romney as a candidate, I nonetheless saw him as the only candidate who could"

Economist, that's not what the polls showed. I don't know that I ever saw any polls that showed Romney defeating Hillary, but I did see polls that showed McCain defeating her. Not that I like McCain, but at least he would probably be the strongest candidate against the bitch because he could pick up independents and moderates and even some Democrats that don't like Hillary.

|2.7.08 @ 3:42PM|#

Joshua Corndog, breaking the drag laws. Pass it on.

Easy to accuse me of being a pot smoker...how about you put it on the line and say how you think it will play out.

Actually I was just funnin with the ol' telephone game I played as a child.
But I'll take a shot at it.

Obama/Dodd
vs
McCain/Sessions

I'm aware that picking a VP nominee ahead of time is almost impossible. Who the hell is Dan Quayle?

Todd|2.7.08 @ 3:43PM|#

Let us consider the plight of Eric Dondero, the Man Who Is Wrong About Everything.

"I didn't like Romney much until last July when he made an incredibly libertarian statement on pornography and allowing adults to decide."

"I truly believe Giuliani, Thompson or Romney will end up winning the nomination."

"I think we've already won the War on Terror. Al Qaeda has been defeated."

"We won the War in Afghanistan in record time. We won the War in Iraq with an amazingly low number of casualties."

"[W]e've pretty much won in the Middle East."

|2.7.08 @ 3:46PM|#

I don't know that I ever saw any polls that showed Romney defeating Hillary

Well, OK, but a governor, historically speaking, would have had a much better chance against a senator.

besides, preliminary polls nine months ago showed Rudy Giuliani as the Republican front-runner.

I don't believe that any kind of general election poll is really all that useful before the ugly stages of the primaries are through.

yes Ayn you need to pull your head out of your ass.

well, I would, except with it up there I'm getting a good idea of the layout of your brain case.

|2.7.08 @ 3:47PM|#

"wait, puerto rico has a primary? i thought they couldn't vote?"

Apparently, they can in primaries, not in the general election.

Leondro|2.7.08 @ 3:47PM|#

McCain could win against Obama or Hillary. He's the only real person among the three. As long as Bush stays off the trail, that is.

I'd imagine it would be hard to win an election by calling for raising taxes during a recession, but then again, Bill Clinton did it. But he was going against the incumbent who was blamed for the recession, plus Ross Perot might have helped.

|2.7.08 @ 3:49PM|#

Obama/Dodd
vs
McCain/Sessions

Who wins?

on a side note I don't think it matters who is the Veep picks are.

I still think McCain/whoever beats Obama/whoever...unless its something like McCain/reincarnated Hitler...

Of course that didn't hurt the Bush/reincarnated Hitler ticket of 2000 and 2004.

Leondro|2.7.08 @ 3:52PM|#

Am I the only one who thinks it's pretty funny on some level that the GOP is following George Bush with someone 10 years older than him?

|2.7.08 @ 3:53PM|#

well, I would, except with it up there I'm getting a good idea of the layout of your brain case.

Your colon is my skull?

ok....whatever.

|2.7.08 @ 3:57PM|#

Obama/Dodd
vs
McCain/Sessions

Who wins?

Joshua Corning -
Obama. Not a landslide, but convincing enough.

You can apologize for lazily misiterpreting my post and calling me an asshole anytime.

Or not.

Brett|2.7.08 @ 3:58PM|#

Obama/Dodd
vs
McCain/Sessions

J sub D, you from TX? I just wasn't sure how many from outside of TX were even familiar with Sessions. That would be red meat for the anti-immigration crowd.

|2.7.08 @ 4:02PM|#

Let us consider the plight of Eric Dondero, the Man Who Is Wrong About Everything.

To be fair you should also note that we are all commenting on an article written by Weigle who celebrated the death of McCain's presidential run several times over the last few months.

Also our beloved Nick G. said that the pull out from Iraq had already begun like 2 years ago.

I am notoriously wrong about just about everything I predict.

|2.7.08 @ 4:03PM|#

You can apologize for lazily misiterpreting my post and calling me an asshole anytime.

Well, joshua, you going to apologize for acting like a dick or not?

Seriously, you have a bad case of "teh Internetz mean I can act like an angry teen" Syndrome.

|2.7.08 @ 4:04PM|#

You can apologize for lazily misiterpreting my post and calling me an asshole anytime.

Never.



....



OK thank you for the prediction and sorry.

|2.7.08 @ 4:08PM|#

Obama beats McCain beats Hillary.

I think if Hillary wins the nomination she needs to have Obama as VP to ward off negative feelings from Democrats and pick up independents. If Obama wins the nominations he needs to never speak to Hillary again, purge her from his memory, and make sure she is no where near him during the general election. She is a polarizing figure in this country. He can do better in any general election contest without her than with her.

McCain is toast unless Hillary wins the nomination because she will draw out haters against her, not for him.

Many have called Obama an empty suit, but I think that works for him. He hasn't pissed anyone off. He is liked by independents and even some Republicans and all Democrats whose last name isn't Clinton. Substance has rarely mattered in electing a President. I don't think this election is any different.

|2.7.08 @ 4:09PM|#

It is going to be McCain Colburn I think. The conservatives are going to get over themselves and start shilling for the party like they always do. Rush and NRO's hurt feelings will be soothed by the prospect of access to the nomine. Meanwhile the Democrats are going to tear each other apart. Anyone who thinks the Clintons are going to go gently into that good night and make a fair deal with Obama is on crack. How do you make a deal with people who will only accept their way?

|2.7.08 @ 4:12PM|#

Nick,

I am not sure if Obama would take VP. It would be a tough choice for him. If he turns her down and makes a stand, he is set for 2012 if she loses and 2016 if she wins or maybe even 2012 if she is a disaster. If he says yes, he is either stuck as a loser in November or they win and he is the Rochester to the Hillary and Bill show. I think I would rather be Senator from Illinois and Mr. Democrat than VP under Hillary.

.|2.7.08 @ 4:14PM|#

I am notoriously wrong about just about everything I predict.

Everyone ever is never actually correct in predicting anything humans do. Sure, sometimes you get lucky. That's not a sign of some sort of supreme wisdom about humans. The truth is -- nobody really knows how our brains work.

|2.7.08 @ 4:14PM|#

Many have called Obama an empty suit, but I think that works for him. He hasn't pissed anyone off.

I agree but I think it only works when he is standing next to Hillary.

Standing next to McCain is a different story.

In my view McCain standing next to an empty suit make the empty suit look good....how it looks to the rest of the country I am not so sure.

|2.7.08 @ 4:16PM|#

John I have a feeling if Obama declines the VP spot to try for Governor of Illinois.

Billary will probably take the convention by seating the disqualified Michigan and Florida delegates--i.e., by fraud.

If that happens, any Democrat that still votes for here can STFU about the "stolen 2000 election".

|2.7.08 @ 4:16PM|#

"And in this time of war, I simply cannot let my campaign be a part of aiding a surrender to terror," he said.


What?

|2.7.08 @ 4:17PM|#

I agree with everything Nick said in the 4:08pm post.

"If Obama wins the nominations he needs to never speak to Hillary again, purge her from his memory, and make sure she is no where near him during the general election. She is a polarizing figure in this country. He can do better in any general election contest without her than with her."

I predict that if Obama wins the nomination, Hillary will do everything in her power to try to get him defeated, but will do it in some way that's not so obvious. She will do it out of vindictiveness and so that she can run again in 4 more years. That's the kind of people the Clintons are.

|2.7.08 @ 4:18PM|#

I don't understand why the Democrats are having such a tough time choosing between the liberal version Ronald Reagan and Hugo Chavez in a pants suit.

Leondro|2.7.08 @ 4:18PM|#

Just like when Bill faked the heart attack so he couldn't campaign for Kerry in 2004.

|2.7.08 @ 4:18PM|#

not to throw the thread off track, but where does this put Huckabee and Paul? They teamed up against Mitt; do they team up against McCain now?

|2.7.08 @ 4:19PM|#

"Billary will probably take the convention by seating the disqualified Michigan and Florida delegates--i.e., by fraud."

I just don't see how they could get away with that.

|2.7.08 @ 4:20PM|#

Geez, Weigel, tell us what you really think.

|2.7.08 @ 4:21PM|#

I just don't see how they could get away with that.

Watch them.

|2.7.08 @ 4:22PM|#

I don't think Obama gets away with playing the Who-Would-You-Like-Me-to-Be? card in the general election. Remember, in the primaries he's challenging someone with no more experience than he has, notwithstanding strange claims of 30+ years "experience" by his opponent.

Man, if Richardson had the slightest ability to campaign, he'd have the nomination sewn up already. He must be crying in his milk right now.

|2.7.08 @ 4:22PM|#

not to throw the thread off track, but where does this put Huckabee and Paul? They teamed up against Mitt; do they team up against McCain now?

Huckabee tries to get the Veep nomination and Ron Paul either runs as a third party candidate or he doesn't.

The Republican nomination for president is now over.

|2.7.08 @ 4:24PM|#

Cesar,

The Clintons are craven. They will never do anything for the good of anyone or anything but themselves. People who think they will roll over and do the right thing for the party must have been asleep during the 1990s. They will absolutely steal it from Obama if they have to. The liberals will take it though and turn out in droves in November to vote for them. Bill and Hillary are, to liberals, like abusive parents. The liberals will swallow their pride and hide their bruises and go back to mommy and daddy.

|2.7.08 @ 4:24PM|#

Huckabee tries to get the Veep nomination

Well, if that's true, we should see the results of that "Smoke-filled Room" meeting where that gets decided in a couple of days. And if it's true that Huckabee gets bought off with a promise of VP, guess who that leaves for the SoCons and the McCain-haters to vote for?

|2.7.08 @ 4:26PM|#

The liberals will swallow their pride and hide their bruises and go back to mommy and daddy.

Oh, you mean like how you've been wanting the libertarians to do with the Republicans for like, three years?

It's just as pathetic sounding when you pimp that course of action as when you slam it, you know.

|2.7.08 @ 4:30PM|#

John, I never said he would or should be her VP. I think he's foolish to do so at his age. But, I think she loses without him and he wins in 2012 after 4 more years of Bush, I mean McCain.

M16|2.7.08 @ 4:32PM|#

Paul's up next at the CPAC, FWIW. (FOXNews.com has a live stream.)

Barr's introducing him now.

|2.7.08 @ 4:34PM|#

"Oh, you mean like how you've been wanting the libertarians to do with the Republicans for like, three years?"


No. I have never told Libertarians to vote Republican. I have just told them they were wrong. Read the threads about my disgust with the right wing media for disliking McCain. I never criticize Reason for not liking McCain. It makes sense they don't agree with him. I think they are wrong about that, but I don't think they are hypocrites for doing it, unlike the right wing media who basically agree with McCain about 90% of the issues and the one issue, Iraq, they claim is the most important yet insist on claiming that they could never vote for him.

For the record I am not a libertarian, although I agree with them on the drug war, the need for small government, and many of their positions on state control over the individual. My views on the war and terrorism get me kicked out of the Libertarian camp, but oh well.

|2.7.08 @ 4:45PM|#

J sub D, you from TX? I just wasn't sure how many from outside of TX were even familiar with Sessions. That would be red meat for the anti-immigration crowd.

Nah, native Detroiter.
I do read, and Sessions seems like a good idealogical fit for McCain. I dunno if he has any big downsides though. Remember Tom Eagleton?

|2.7.08 @ 4:45PM|#

Interesting take on Obama on Best of the Web today. Frankly, it is kind of creepy. If people were acting towards Huckabee like this, I can't imagine the kittens Dems would be having.

Romney, in the end, failed to inspire. By contrast, Barack Obama is nothing but inspiring--so inspiring that it is becoming deeply creepy. The Boston Globe reports on a new music video touting Obama:

Inspired by the speech Barack Obama delivered in Nashua the night of the state primary, will.i.am [of the Black Eyed Peas] set Obama's text to simple guitar and a soulful melody, recruited 36 artists to appear in a music video that was conceived, shot, and edited over three days last week, and posted "Yes We Can" online over the weekend. . . .
The split-screen video features clips of the candidate speaking alongside shots of R&B singer John Legend, actress Scarlett Johansson, rapper Common, jazz pianist Herbie Hancock, actor-singer Nick Cannon, rocker Ed Kowalczyk, and others echoing Obama's spoken words in song. Will.i.am set the song's tempo to synch up with the New Hampshire audience, which supplies the song's rhythm with chants of "We want change, we want change!" . . .
"I do think it allows people an accessible way into politics," Jesse Dylan said. "Rallies can be dry, but Will has taken the words and dramatized them with these wonderful artists and it gives people an easy way to become passionate."
The video, which you can watch here, depicts people who appear to be in some sort of trance as they mouth along with Obama's various rhetorical flourishes from his speeches, then repeat the mantra "Yes, we can." The whole thing has the feel of a cult of personality.

We aren't the first to make that observation. The other day one Kathleen Geier, who says she voted for Obama and considers him "a good progressive," took to the liberal TPMCafe site to declare that she is "increasingly weirded out by some of Obama's supporters":

She quotes from a Sacramento Bee article that she (and we) found "unsettling":

"He looked at me, and the look in his eyes was worth 1,000 words," said [Kim] Mack, now a regional field organizer. Obama hugged her and whispered something in her ear--she was so thrilled she doesn't remember what it was. . . .
She urged volunteers to hone their own stories of how they came to Obama--something they could compress into 30 seconds on the phone.
As Geier notes, "this sounds more like a cult than a political campaign":

The language used here is the language of evangelical Christianity--the Obama volunteers speak of "coming to Obama" in the same way born-again Christians talk about "coming to Jesus."
But he's not Jesus! He's not going to magically enable us to transcend the bitter partisanship that is tearing this country apart.
ABC's Jake Tapper notes other enthusiasts and detractors from the enthusiasm, all on the Democratic left. "I've been following politics since I was about 5," Chris Matthews tells the New York Observer. "I've never seen anything like this. This is bigger than Kennedy. [Obama] comes along, and he seems to have the answers. This is the New Testament."

On the other side, Times Joe Klein writes that there is "something just a wee bit creepy about the mass messianism" of the Obama campaign, which "all too often is about how wonderful the Obama campaign is." Adds the dyspeptic leftist James Wolcott:

Perhaps it's my atheism at work but I found myself increasingly wary of and resistant to the salvational fervor of the Obama campaign, the idealistic zeal divorced from any particular policy or cause and chariot-driven by pure euphoria. . . . I don't look to politics for transcendence and self-certification.
What are we to make of Obama himself in the midst of all this adulation? A cynic would say that he is a manipulator if not a demagogue, exploiting the gullible to further his own ambitions. A more charitable view is that his intentions are all to the good, that he has simply figured out how to tap into a genuine desire for inspiration in politics, and that if elected he will use his political powers to do good for the country.

Each view seems plausible, but which is correct? Does anyone know Barack Obama well enough to say? And if not, isn't he the candidate who has a problem with authenticity?

|2.7.08 @ 4:47PM|#

OK thank you for the prediction and sorry.

Your welcome. Accepted. I've been called much worse.

|2.7.08 @ 4:47PM|#

John, Cults of Personality are nothing new even in American politics. From Andy Jackson to FDR to JFK to Reagan, there have been a lot over the years. Obama is just the most recent incarnation.

highnumber|2.7.08 @ 4:48PM|#

John I have a feeling if Obama declines the VP spot to try for Governor of Illinois.

No way. Illinois guv is tainted goods. Like withered, rehydrated, tainted again, and left to rot in the hot tropical sun tainted goods. You cannot touch the executive branch in Springfield without the stink following you forever. To really sidetrack this thread, my prediction for the next Dem candidate for Illinois guv is current Sec'y of State Jesse White. He still smells relatively clean even after holding that office, but you'll never see him seek national office. If Obama is not our next Pres, he will remain a US Senator, probably until he does become Pres.

|2.7.08 @ 4:51PM|#

BBC says McCain's invited Romney to join his campaign.

|2.7.08 @ 4:52PM|#

"jazz pianist Herbie Hancock"

Hey, at least Obama's got one of the Founding Fathers on his side.

|2.7.08 @ 4:52PM|#

High#, but if Obama cleaned up Springfield that would be a huge feather in his cap wouldn't it?

Urkobold™|2.7.08 @ 4:52PM|#

"Scarlett Johansson. . . ."

TOO BAD SHE'S NOT RUNNING. THE URKOBOLD WOULD KILL TO ENSURE HER ELECTION.

|2.7.08 @ 4:52PM|#

I am notoriously wrong about just about everything I predict.

Not me. Does antbody else have fond memories of the Colin Powell administration?

|2.7.08 @ 4:53PM|#

Hey look everyone john is recycling media pieces produced by the Clinton camp dirty tricks department.

This is not how the republicans are going to beat Obama john..."Obama as cult" is how Clinton is going to lose to him.


This random prediction thing is fun...i can see why the staff of Reason has latched onto it....terrible for the magazine but still really fun.

Leondro|2.7.08 @ 4:53PM|#

Am I the only one who has a feeling that there's going to be a backlash against Obama's "inspirational" style? Either people will get bored of it or sick of the media saying how amazing it is, but my cockles tell me that Obamarama is going to be a-fizzling. Not unlike POGs.

I don't know if it will happen during the Primaries, but I guarantee you that the backlash will occur before November.

A much better way to run an empty suit campaign would be like Arnold in the recall. But perhaps the overhype is more the fault of the media than the Obama campaign itself.

|2.7.08 @ 4:54PM|#

John, Cults of Personality are nothing new even in American politics. From Andy Jackson to FDR to JFK to Reagan, there have been a lot over the years. Obama is just the most recent incarnation.

Cesar beat me to it. He did omit George Washington though.

|2.7.08 @ 4:54PM|#

Poor Romney.


(this is the last time I'll probably get to type that)

Leondro|2.7.08 @ 4:57PM|#

Did the FDR, Reagan, and JFK cults of personality occur before they were elected?

highnumber|2.7.08 @ 4:58PM|#

Cesar,

I'm struggling for words. I'm shaking my head and sighing as I read your comment.

First, it would be much, much more than a feather, it would confirm that he is the Messiah.
Second, even in that case, it would not be worth the effort to someone who can be a player on the national stage already. If somebody ever cleans up Springfield, it will probably kill him or her.
Third, I'm just shaking my head and sighing again.

|2.7.08 @ 4:58PM|#

High#, but if Obama cleaned up Springfield that would be a huge feather in his cap wouldn't it?

That would be a greater task than this.

|2.7.08 @ 4:59PM|#

Hillary will pick Richardson, and he'll have as much role in the administration as the White House gardener. Which will be fine by him -- Hillary will only last one term and then he'll be prime for 2016. He will have learned much from this election on how to run a campaign -- i.e. don't take the Fred Thompson approach and just throw your resume out there, but campaign hard, early, and prep for those debates.

|2.7.08 @ 5:02PM|#

On November 5th I'm going to revisit this prediction thread. Stand by for heavy rolls! ;-)

|2.7.08 @ 5:02PM|#

Ok, so I'm showing my east coast ignoranceby not knowing how corrupt Illinois is. Got it.

Leondro-

The Washington and Andy Jackson cults did. Reagan too, to a lesser extent.

Brett|2.7.08 @ 5:02PM|#

Nah, native Detroiter.
I do read

And here I thought those were mutually exclusive! I jest of course.

I wasn't accusing you of any ignorance, was just surprised to see somebody throw his name in the hat. From what I can tell, he's an anti-immigration one-trick pony (might be what McCain needs), but I no longer live in his district so I don't make any attempt to follow him.

|2.7.08 @ 5:04PM|#

"Hey look everyone john is recycling media pieces produced by the Clinton camp dirty tricks department."


Jesus Josh. Calm down. That is from Best of the Web on the Wall Street Journal. James Toranto is Mr. Vast Right Wing Conspiracy. He is about as pro Clinton as Rush Limbaugh.

|2.7.08 @ 5:05PM|#

Richardson...he'll have as much role in the administration as the White House gardener

Oh, and just what is THAT supposed to mean, huh? Why gardener?

|2.7.08 @ 5:05PM|#

He's not really anti immigrant as much as he is for fixing the system. My gut feeling is that immigration will help McCain come November. Can't explain it, but I feel it somehow.

|2.7.08 @ 5:06PM|#

The immigration thing will most definetely help McCain. It will make hispanics think that maybe, just maybe, the GOP isn't the anti-Latino party after all.

|2.7.08 @ 5:09PM|#

And here I thought those were mutually exclusive! I jest of course.

And jest you should. The skoolz hear arr knot vary gud.

Leondro|2.7.08 @ 5:10PM|#

Richardson might help out with the dishes every now and then too.

|2.7.08 @ 5:11PM|#

J sub - they have schools? I thought those were juvenile detention facilities.

My bad.

|2.7.08 @ 5:12PM|#

How about George Allen as McCains VP? (I say this only half jokingly).

|2.7.08 @ 5:13PM|#

Jesus Josh. Calm down. That is from Best of the Web on the Wall Street Journal. James Toranto is Mr. Vast Right Wing Conspiracy. He is about as pro Clinton as Rush Limbaugh.

Hmm I got it from ABC news blog via Drudge.

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/02/and-obama-wept.html

Warning: the abc web site sucks doggy dodoo

|2.7.08 @ 5:15PM|#

Holy gullible Batman, I actually clicked on an ad here. (Jeff Flake/pork barrel)

Now I feel a bit chumpish.

Coprophiliac|2.7.08 @ 5:17PM|#

ABC has gone into porn?!

Leondro|2.7.08 @ 5:19PM|#

What states that Bush won in 2004 would Obama flip from McCain? Iowa would probably be a cinch, but it seems to me like it would just go back to Ohio. I could see either McCain or Obama winning there, so I don't think Obama would have easy hoeing if he won the nomination.

|2.7.08 @ 5:21PM|#

J sub - they have schools? I thought those were juvenile detention facilities.

And they have an occasional distinguised alumni. From Wiki -

[Lily]Tomlin was born Mary Jean Tomlin in Detroit, Michigan, daughter of Lillie Mae (née Ford), a housewife and nurse's aide who moved to Detroit from Paducah, Kentucky during the Great Depression, and Guy Tomlin, a factory worker.[1] She is a 1957 graduate of Cass Technical High School. Tomlin attended Wayne State University, where her interest in the theater and performing arts began.

Cass Tech is still a quality school. Wayne State is ~2 1/2 miles from downtown Detroit, in the cultural center. I bemoan the state of my city a lot, but I'm still here and there is a lot of good things surviving.

|2.7.08 @ 5:21PM|#

ABC has gone into porn?!

No but it freezes browsers like porn sites do.

|2.7.08 @ 5:39PM|#

Translation of Romney's concession speech:

"I've thrown tens of millions of dollars away, and as a good businessman I understand the concept of sunk costs, and I can see I can't win enough delegates to pull this out ... oh, and my wife gently let me know that she wouldn't exactly cut off sex, because good Mormon wives don't do that, but if I kept spending our kid's inheritance on a lost cause she'd be a way less enthusiastic participant in bed. And she's way too hot to risk that."

Now, if Mitt had said something honest along those lines, I think everyone here would have way more respect for him.

Brandybuck|2.7.08 @ 5:40PM|#

The other day one Kathleen Geier, who says she voted for Obama and considers him "a good progressive," took to the liberal TPMCafe site to declare that she is "increasingly weirded out by some of Obama's supporters"

Yeah, and I've been weirded out by my fellow Ron Paul supporters since last April. Already some of them R) are talking about how the election was a conspiracy because Ron Paul didn't win Super Tuesday. Sigh.

|2.7.08 @ 5:54PM|#

Yeah, and I've been weirded out by my fellow Ron Paul supporters since last April.

Tell me about it. OTOH, RP did
Better than I feared.
Worse than I hoped.
About what I expected.

He got some important ideas a hearing and if you expected more than that you're a dreamer, not tyo be trusted with your own money. Hoping is not delusional. Convincing yourself in spite of all evidence is.

|2.7.08 @ 5:59PM|#

Now, if Mitt had said something honest along those lines, I think everyone here would have way more respect for him.

I think this "I want to be President and being VP for 8 years or waiting four years is more likely to get me there then pissing away my money and political future with a continued campaign" would be more honest.

With McCain's weakness with conservative voters I suspect Romney making this speech at CPAC is no coincidence. He is going for VP and that smoke filled room deal may have already happened.

|2.7.08 @ 6:01PM|#

Hey Lonewacko -

Who are you gonna support now? Seriously.

The fence builders are all gone and I'll bet we get a hugely expanded guest worker program, with amnesty for those who have been picking fruit and laying concrete here these past few years.

Plus the NAFTA super highway will be 15 lanes wide in each direction. ;-)

Ali|2.7.08 @ 6:02PM|#

Where art thou Eric?

|2.7.08 @ 6:07PM|#

Plus the NAFTA super highway will be 15 lanes wide in each direction. ;-)

I am still waiting for my "Privatize the NAFTA super highway" T-shirt.

|2.7.08 @ 6:16PM|#

I don't see Romney or Huckabee as VP's. Remember McCain needs to strengthen his ticket, and those two can't get 50% of any state outside of Arkansas or Utah...

|2.7.08 @ 6:16PM|#

MNG, Romney could help in Michigan from what I understand.

|2.7.08 @ 6:18PM|#

It's not like McCain lacks in connections to well known GOP politicians...He's got a lot to choose from...

I also think it would be terrible to add someone to the ticket who has been cranking out attack ads on you over the past few months.

Obama-McCain debate:
Obama: John, even your running mate said you were wrong on x, y and z and not the right man for this job.

|2.7.08 @ 6:18PM|#

I am still waiting for my "Privatize the NAFTA super highway" T-shirt.

I've already figured out where the real money to be made is. Franchises along the way.

|2.7.08 @ 6:20PM|#

Cesar-do you think Romney could take Michigan from a Democrat, what with their economy and all? Even in bad times for the Dems people losing their jobs tend to prefer them...

Dems may not grasp a lot about macroeconomics, but what they do well is to promise something. When folks are worried economically they don't want to hear "don't worry folks, the market will correct itself, and if we can free up your rich neigbhor maybe he can will buy some luxury items and in a few months there will be new jobs at the yacht-building factory for you."

|2.7.08 @ 6:21PM|#

Obama: John, even your running mate said you were wrong on x, y and z and not the right man for this job.

Reagan got elected with Bush I as his VP. Remember "voodoo economics"?

|2.7.08 @ 6:22PM|#

Romney's return for his dollar was quite pathetic. He's a bad candidate because he comes off as a used car salesman. And while, with enough $, you can bullshit some of the people some of the time, you can't bullshit them all. Even GOP primary voters it now seems.

|2.7.08 @ 6:25PM|#

I'm ecstatic about democracy today because of Mitt's loss. He represented everything despicable about our politics, and did so in ways that were so extreme that they seemed like a caricature: the flip flops timed for differing elections, the spending of gobs of his own money, the courting of the extreme punditocracy. He really thought he could just buy the election, branding himself like he was soda pop or something. That Americans saw through him is a good sign in my eyes...

|2.7.08 @ 6:27PM|#

When one thinks of what Romney was on record for during his Mass liberal days, it is mind boggling that folks like Bill Frist thought they would not be viable...Any conservative who was not A. a Mass liberal for the past ten years or B. comatose (Thompson) could have had that nomination for the asking...But there were no takers...It defies explanation imo...

|2.7.08 @ 6:33PM|#

Romney's return for his dollar was quite pathetic. He's a bad candidate because he comes off as a used car salesman. And while, with enough $, you can bullshit some of the people some of the time, you can't bullshit them all. Even GOP primary voters it now seems.

GOP voters voted for McCain cuz they are scared of Hilary and they think McCain can beat her...The ones that voted against McCain are pissed at McCain....putting Hukabee or Romney on the ticket with him would be the smart thing to do to solidify the base. Romney dropped out first and cleared up far more problems for him then would Hukabee if he droped out...who do you think McCain will choose?

GILMORE|2.7.08 @ 6:36PM|#

|2.7.08 @ 6:38PM|#

joshua-I don't think it will be Romney...A great deal of people can't stand Romney, the guy spent and spent and just could not make people like him...I think it had little to do with the Mormonism, they just saw him as a car salesman...

I don't think it will be Huckabee either. Huck has the gift of gab and a soft touch, but he has been on record saying some crazy, crazy shit that would play terribly nationally...

McCain will get conservative votes no matter what he does. HRC or Obama will scare up any that care plenty. His only hope is to keep his crossover appeal and his appeal with indie voters.

So I think he picks someone conservatives respect but who won't scare the indies and crossovers, like Fred Thompson (but with more life!).

|2.7.08 @ 6:39PM|#

Gilmore-
Well said, one of your most insightful posts to date :)

GILMORE|2.7.08 @ 6:42PM|#

ey, blow me. I types the thing, I hits post, nothin happens, then i'm too bored to repeat myself.

Oh, one thing was my prediction that Obama will go for a military Dem as his running mate. Wesley Clarke? Jim Webb? Just my guess.

McCain will go with reincarnated Hitler (aka Guiliani), natch

|2.7.08 @ 6:49PM|#

Webb in the White House would be great. I like Wes Clark but he will never pick him...I do think it is a mystery who he would pick, but I think he would be wise to do the Clinton Gore thing and pick some other young winner (whatever happened to Evan Bayh of Indiania?).

Clinton would be a fool to not pick Richardson.

|2.7.08 @ 6:52PM|#

Nah, Giuliani would do more harm than good. Besides, too much war fever might kill the independent push that McCain usually gets.

It's President McCain folks. The only question is who his VP is going to be. There's been talk down here about Charlie Crist, but I don't believe it. He hasn't even been governor for that long. Besides, he has a George Hamilton tan.

GILMORE|2.7.08 @ 7:05PM|#

Pro lib =

I agree only if Hilary wins the nom. If obama takes it, my view is McCain is toast.

Simple reason being, GOP constituency #s simply isnt enough to win outright if one slice defects. And with mcCain, you've got 2-3 slices that will not swallow him. Especially if there's no hilary to motivate them to go "anyone but her!!".

Obama on the other hand takes votes directly from McCain. He also pulls (as shown) huge new turnout of people who normally never vote.

I dont think there's as much of an "anti black" vote amongst parties as much as there's an anti-clinton strain. I think the GOPs only hope of winning the white house is Hilary victory

Geotpf|2.7.08 @ 7:13PM|#

Clark is a Clintonite. He is probably on Hillary's short list for VP, not Obama's.

I'm thinking Obama will pick a white, female, Democratic governor from a red state (either Janet Napolitano of Arizona or Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas), in an attempt to keep Hillary's female voters energized. Or ex-Republican Lincoln Chafee, in an extension of his own MO, which is to be a liberal Republicans will vote (he's the second best at that particular trick I've ever seen-Russ Feingold is the best at it)(picking a red state governor does that too).

Now, McCain is a conservative that Democrats will vote for, unfortuantly. Although not one libertarians will, simply because of his extreme warmongering ways. And once Obama or Clinton hammers McCain about his warmongering, the Democrats will return to their fold, I think.

|2.7.08 @ 7:15PM|#

I dont think there's as much of an "anti black" vote amongst parties as much as there's an anti-clinton strain. I think the GOPs only hope of winning the white house is Hilary victory

Obama is tied with Hilary...tied with one of the most hated people in America.

How well do you think Obama will do against someone that most americans like?

GILMORE|2.7.08 @ 7:18PM|#

Geotpf | February 7, 2008, 7:13pm | #
Clark is a Clintonite. He is probably on Hillary's short list for VP, not Obama's.

Good point. Forgot about that.

Still, who knows? he doesnt owe them anything. Plus he might be able to bring some of clintons useful operators over to 'bamas camp.

but i think you're probably right about the female governor thing for purely demographic reasons. I still think someone with military cred would still be a potentially winning combo.

Fluffy|2.7.08 @ 7:20PM|#

How do you make a deal with people who will only accept their way?

You know what? I don't like Hillary personally, but this is a myth.

Did they accept only their own way on gays in the military? Did they accept only their own way on trade policy? Did they accept only their own way on welfare reform?

You can't name one thing Bush has compromised on to even the slightest degree. Not that there's anything necessarily wrong with that. But after Bush it's really impossible to criticize any other politician in US history - up to and including Jefferson Davis - for being someone who demands that everything be exactly their way.

What states does Obama take that Bush took in 2004?

IA, OH, probably FL, maybe WV and MO.

GILMORE|2.7.08 @ 7:21PM|#

joshua corning | February 7, 2008, 7:15pm | #
I dont think there's as much of an "anti black" vote amongst parties as much as there's an anti-clinton strain. I think the GOPs only hope of winning the white house is Hilary victory

Obama is tied with Hilary...tied with one of the most hated people in America.

How well do you think Obama will do against someone that most americans like?

I think you're misreading the reasons that they are "tied" as you put it.

Once dems figure out who they're going with, they're all going on board with the candidate (albeit some small Dem groups that are anti-hilary). Thats simply not true with McCain. He's dealing with a slightly smaller, less motivated base overall, and some fractious elements that are likely to not show up.

Fluffy|2.7.08 @ 7:26PM|#

Obama is tied with Hilary...tied with one of the most hated people in America.

Hillary is one of the most loved people in America, if we're talking about the Democrat primary electorate.

I think it's more appropriate to frame it that Obama is a half-term Senator who is facing the beloved spouse of a beloved former two-term President. That spouse also is owed favors by virtually every party hack and officeholder in the country. That spouse also raised 9 figures for her run. That spouse is also considered "next in line" and has been for years. That spouse also represents the ambitions of a very large interest group within the party [feminists], who want very much to see her break the gender barrier.

I don't think much of Obama as a political philosopher, but in terms of making something out of nothing he's a veritable Paracelsus.

BakedPenguin|2.7.08 @ 7:35PM|#

I think the veep choices are coming from states that are in play. I could see Richardson as Obama's veep rather than Hillary - for the simple fact that Hillary already has the Hispanic vote, about the only thing keeping her campaign alive. Also, NM could go either D or R.

However, the fact that he doesn't bring a ready made constituency with him is a minus.

Pro Lib - I'd disagree with you about Crist. He's pretty popular here, he seems rather ambitious, and his lack of experience is a feature, not a bug (are they going to grill him for his record?). As for the Coppertone shine, he can just remind people he is from Florida.

BakedPenguin|2.7.08 @ 7:53PM|#

Oh, and Dondero's said a few times that he wouldn't support McCain, that he'd be rooting for Root.

Which will make him 0 for 3 in 2008. (Though Root could get the LP nod, at least.)

|2.7.08 @ 8:02PM|#

I think the veep choices are coming from states that are in play.

VP choices only get you votes in the VP nominees state. However, they can cost you votes all across the country. For example, if McCain picks Giuliani or that ignorant, hillbilly whack-job preacher, it would solidify my support for Obama, it would even drive me to [retch] vote for Clinton. I think both carry far too many negatives. We may just get another relatively unknown (nationally) politician.

I'm not an inner-circle advisor by any means, but if he hooks up with John Engler, Michigan is his. And Engler can do attack dog politics, allowing McCain to act nobly.

BakedPenguin|2.7.08 @ 8:23PM|#

J sub D - I'm not familiar enough w/ MI to know how big of a coup it would be for the state to go R, but I suspect that would be a choice they're thinking of.

If Obama get the nom, McBain won't be worried about the Hispanic vote, so I think it would be a lot more likely to see a northern Republican on the ticket with him.

Eric Dondero|2.7.08 @ 8:33PM|#

Someone is posting under my name above. Those were not my words.

Eric Dondero|2.7.08 @ 8:35PM|#

I am planning on supporting Wayne Root for President. Hopefully, Root will win the LP nomination. But if the LP recruits another credible standard-bearer like Bob Barr or Gary Johnson, I'll vote for them. I will not vote for non-credible candidates like Steve Kubby or George Phillies.

I cannot support McCain. Only way I'd vote for McCain is if he picked Sarah Palin as VP (or JC Watts, Michael Steele, Butch Otter, Mark Sanford, Dana Rohrabacher, et.al.)

Even then I'd vote for the VP candidate, not for McCain.

Eric Dondero|2.7.08 @ 8:37PM|#

Hey, btw, why all the silence on Ron Paul all of a sudden? What happened to all the fanaticism for Paul? It's been awfully quiet here at Reason H&R on the RP front.

Some news, Republican Liberty Caucus Chairman Bill Westmiller just said that he thinks the Ron Paul campaign is at the "beginning of the end." Westmiller has been one of Paul's top supporters.

Fully story at www.libertarianrepublican.blogspot.com

Eric Dondero|2.7.08 @ 8:43PM|#

All you all bashing Romney, keep in mind two things:

1. One of his top backers, a man who campaigned with Romney in New Hampshire, was none other than Mr. Libertarian Republican himself William Weld.

2. Romney crushed everyone else in the most libertarian states in the Nation: Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Montana and the champion of all libertarian states - ALASKA!

Bingo|2.7.08 @ 8:50PM|#

JsubD: is MI really up for grabs? Last time I was there (Christmas) I got the distinct impression the Unions were waiting for The Great Government Savior to force the economy to magically work again. If you aren't talking about bailouts for the once-big Three, then there was no point in talking at all.

And Wayne County is going to vote Dem anyways.

bachwards|2.7.08 @ 8:53PM|#

Someone should register youforgotalaska.org

|2.7.08 @ 8:54PM|#

Eric
What did you think of Romney's crazy anti-porn statements in his CPAC speech? Porn can be seen as a classic libertarian issue: DIRECT harm from porn is very hard to imagine. How is that libertarian?

Utah is a libertarian state??? Nevada, Colorado, and Utah had the Mormon vote (which seems to be more monolithic than the African American vote), which makes a difference in these low turn out affairs.

|2.7.08 @ 8:56PM|#

Eric,

If Mitt was the superhero of libertarian candidates, "crushing" this opponents.... why did you support Rudy? He did miserable in those states.

|2.7.08 @ 8:56PM|#

The Rocky Mountain west (sans Utah) is probably all things considered the most libertarian part of the country. Both Team Red and Team Blue in those states seem to elect slightly saner people than elsewhere most of the time.

However, thats not what did it for Romney. Its the fact he was a Mormon.

|2.7.08 @ 8:57PM|#

4 things...

Dondero, how many times are you going to post the Bill Westmiller comments before you realize no one cares? MNG beat me to the Utah comment.

Is anyone else surprised at how well Paul's speech was received at CPAC today? From what I understand, it was a conservative crowd but it didn't sound like it.

In most primary states, Hillary has been getting vote totals doubling and tripling McCain's. Even the the psycho Republican constituency is saying they will vote Hillary over McCain. How can anyone realistically think the R's have a chance?

As far as delegates go, Romney's delegates are only committed to him. He can't "give" his delegates to anyone.

|2.7.08 @ 8:58PM|#

Of course an easier explanation is: these were all small states in which someone with limited cash like McCain ignored but someone with lots'o cash, much of it his, could afford to spend, spend, spend. And so he ran hard in these very hard states...And he even lost some (WV), the goof!

|2.7.08 @ 9:00PM|#

It's still amazing to me that Romney tried it...It's almost like he painted his face black and tried to perform on the Apollo stage...

Nephilium|2.7.08 @ 9:12PM|#

Allow me to throw my prediction out there...

Ohio will go for the Democrats. Regardless of nominee.

I blame Taft for that.

Nephilium

Someone Who Doesn\'t Want to L|2.7.08 @ 9:19PM|#

Ok too much drinkery to read what happened since 5:19. Here's my effin' prediction:

Republican nominee....

...wait for it...
...wait for it...

surprise...McCain! I am so fuckin'* awesome!

OK now Democratic nominee: I'm not yet willing to predict who will beat whom.

I think I'm 100% correct so far!

If it's McCain vs Obama, Obama wins.
If it's McCain vs Clinton, McCain wins.

*You like how I used effin' and then followed it up with fuckin'? I was just nominated for a teachin' award this week! I RAWK!!!!!

|2.7.08 @ 9:25PM|#

JsubD: is MI really up for grabs? Last time I was there (Christmas) I got the distinct impression the Unions were waiting for The Great Government Savior to force the economy to magically work again. If you aren't talking about bailouts for the once-big Three, then there was no point in talking at all.

I think the last (R) president we supported was Bush I. But Engler was 3 term governor who was forced out by term limits. The state elcted a Democratic canuck, Jennifer Granholm (She was born in the frozen north and is a naturalized citizen). It's been downhill from there and I'm not sure if GWB or Jenny Granholm gets the most blame.

A lot of rambling there, but yeah, Michican can go GOP with a decent candidate. Bob Dole or Bush II wasn't enough.

Someone Who Doesn\'t Want to L|2.7.08 @ 9:25PM|#

By the way, I will sing a song of praise for the first one of you sonsabitches who links to a youtube reading of a poem or singing of a song about how great macaroni and cheese is!

('At's a long and poorly constructed sentence!)

|2.7.08 @ 9:27PM|#

And Wayne County is going to vote Dem anyways.

Jesus Christ(R) would lose to Beelzebub(D) in Wayne County.

|2.7.08 @ 9:30PM|#

I wouldn't write off Clinton against McCain. This year, that's a very winnable contest for her.

This year, there are so many more Democrats than Republicans showing up at the polls that I don't see how it fails to translate into a gigantic Democratic vote. If Hillary even stays close among independents, she will win.

Obama will beat McCain among independents.

Nephilium|2.7.08 @ 9:32PM|#

SWDWTLHJ:

Will this suffice?

Nephilium

Someone Who Doesn\'t Want to L|2.7.08 @ 9:33PM|#

joe,

I'm not denying you may be right. You posted them numbers a week or so ago and I was impressed.

However, the more important issue you have failed to answer:

Where's my goddamn song about mac and chee?

Someone Who Doesn\'t Want to L|2.7.08 @ 9:36PM|#

Nephilium,

Pretty good, pretty good. I haven't run into any poetry yet, but as long as I don't see better, you're gonna win.

That's if I can find a word that rhymes with Nephilium.

Someone Who Doesn\'t Want to L|2.7.08 @ 9:37PM|#

'xcuse me : "if" = "if'n"

Gotta show my goddamn roots!

Bingo|2.7.08 @ 9:38PM|#

Job Non-Loser:

mac and cheese bonus souljah boy reference video

Bingo|2.7.08 @ 9:41PM|#

Bingo's Law: Everything that can be associated with Soulja Boy will be associated with Soulja Boy and viewable on youtube.

|2.7.08 @ 9:41PM|#

One of my worries with Obama is that his negatives are unknown, he has not been worked over yet...


My worry about Hillary is that she just has far too high negatives...

I don't see conservatives (whatever the f*ck that is supposed to mean these days) sitting at home and not supporting McCain after their leaders, realizing they will get no jobs in his administration if they do not support him, advocate it as their duty to vote for him....

SIV|2.7.08 @ 9:43PM|#

Romney crushed everyone else in the most libertarian states in the Nation: Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Montana and the champion of all libertarian states - ALASKA!

Wonder why they threw their votes away?
If I'm voting for a loser I want a loser who is going all the way to the convention.

|2.7.08 @ 9:46PM|#

SIV
Some things you've mentioned make me think you may have some insight here: who will win LA?

|2.7.08 @ 9:48PM|#

In the general election many think Obama can win LA...Maybe they base this on Landrieu's win...Many of these people are not aware of LA politics....Can Obama, in the general, win LA?

Someone Who Doesn\'t Want to L|2.7.08 @ 9:49PM|#

OK, Bingo is the big winner with an impressively quick showing at #2 for Nephilium!

Thankfully Bingo saved me a lot of work as I know very well a song of praise for him!

My praise for the great BINGO!:

There was a farmer who had a dog,
And Bingo was his name-o.
B-I-N-G-O
B-I-N-G-O
B-I-N-G-O
And Bingo was his name-o.

There was a farmer who had a dog,
And Bingo was his name-o.
(clap)-I-N-G-O
(clap)-I-N-G-O
(clap)-I-N-G-O
And Bingo was his name-o.

There was a farmer who had a dog,
And Bingo was his name-o.
(clap)-(clap)-N-G-O
(clap)-(clap)-N-G-O
(clap)-(clap)-N-G-O
And Bingo was his name-o.

There was a farmer who had a dog,
And Bingo was his name-o.
(clap)-(clap)-(clap)-G-O
(clap)-(clap)-(clap)-G-O
(clap)-(clap)-(clap)-G-O
And Bingo was his name-o.

There was a farmer who had a dog,
And Bingo was his name-o.
(clap)-(clap)-(clap)-(clap)-O
(clap)-(clap)-(clap)-(clap)-O
(clap)-(clap)-(clap)-(clap)-O
And Bingo was his name-o.

There was a farmer who had a dog,
And Bingo was his name-o.
(clap)-(clap)-(clap)-(clap)-(clap)
(clap)-(clap)-(clap)-(clap)-(clap)
(clap)-(clap)-(clap)-(clap)-(clap)
And Bingo was his name-o.

SIV|2.7.08 @ 9:58PM|#

MNG,

You are referring to my answer to someone's question about what State could Obama win that Hillary couldn't. I think LA is his best shot in the South.Hillary doesn't have a chance in the "Old Confederacy.

SIV|2.7.08 @ 10:04PM|#

I still can't see how anyone thinks Romney is a "conservative". That is nearly as absurd as his being a "mainstream libertarian".There seemed to be a collective delusion among NR, talk radio, Coulter and many voters that went beyond mere desperation. He is less conservative than Bush, who was never regarded as one by these same people.

Someone Who Doesn\'t Want to L|2.7.08 @ 10:09PM|#

SIV and MNG,
I think Obama has potential to make up ground for the Democrats in almost every state. States that are close for Clinton are closer for Obama. Almost certainly in some cases, he'll take a few that she won't. LA seems likely, as SIV says as do some of the standard decider states: OH, FL - though the oldliness of FL might be a problem. VA is a likely northern-southern state (possibly too soon in aught-eight, but it's going blue anyway and Obama might push it there sooner), and some of the western states are possible as well - CO maybe and possibly some others.

SIV,
The only reason anyone ever pretended they thought Romney was conservative or whatever was for one of two reasons: either they were upset about his insufficient deference to Falwell or they were sure he was not pro-torture enough to satisfy their bloodlust.

|2.7.08 @ 10:15PM|#

SIV-

In the former Confederacy, Obama also has a pretty decent chance here in Virginia. He would get a big African-American vote in the 3rd CD and turnout the white independents in Northern Virginia.

Hillary, OTOH, will never win here.

SIV|2.7.08 @ 10:16PM|#

One of my worries with Obama is that his negatives are unknown, he has not been worked over yet...

Obama's only real negative is one of his strengths-- inexperience.He hasn't done anything in the campaign to make him self look "too liberal".In a way he has tacked to the right of Hillary with some while appearing to the left to others.His standard stump speech implies a rejection of identity politics, an albatross around the Dems neck with white men.

squarooticus|2.7.08 @ 10:18PM|#

With every new post you further cement your ignorance in the eyes of actual libertarians. And now that every candidate you've supported has exited the race, there is nothing further for you to pimp here. Please, beat it (a path, the monkey, or your wife; it matters not).

Buh-bye.

SIV|2.7.08 @ 10:21PM|#

MNG,

You want original insight? (apologies to anyone who thought of it first)McCain/Obama contest cancels out a somewhat subtle weakness of both. They both have a whiff of being The Manchurian Candidate.

|2.7.08 @ 10:24PM|#

His standard stump speech implies a rejection of identity politics, an albatross around the Dems neck with white men.

This is why the biggest demographic within the Democratic Party that supports him is white men.

|2.7.08 @ 10:24PM|#

Should read "one of the biggest". Certainly the biggest besides blacks and the young, though.

SIV|2.7.08 @ 10:26PM|#

Cesar,


Hillary certainly helps him with the male vote.

Someone Who Doesn\'t Want to L|2.7.08 @ 10:36PM|#

Obama has a lot of pluses and not a lot of minuses in a general election. McCain is the same way. Clinton, on the other hand, has a ton of minuses and not a lot of pluses, other than the fact that the Republicans are sort of generally sucking hind teat right now.

Eric Dondero|2.7.08 @ 11:33PM|#

None of the above posts attributed to me were mine. Some person or group of people are posting under my name in some kind of cheap, unfunny internet joke because they're too afraid to get out from behind their computers and actually do something productive for the libertarian movement.

|2.7.08 @ 11:38PM|#

Romney crushed everyone else in the most libertarian states in the Nation: Nevada, Utah

Utah? Libertarian? HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

Normally skip right over Dondero (and joe) posts unread, but when someone says something that jaw-droppingly stupid, and then someone else points it out for you ... time to go back and check it out. It's hard to not stop and rubberneck at such a traffic wreck of a post. ;)

Eric Dondero|2.7.08 @ 11:39PM|#

Despite what the above posters (poseurs) claim, I am willing to give John McCain a chance as president, if only because a Hillary Clinton White House would be a disaster for liberty in America.

MrWhipple|2.8.08 @ 12:16AM|#

Way back at comment #2, Russ R. wrote:

To his credit, Romney was the only one of the field who had demonstrated any success in the private sector.

False. Ron Paul has been a very successful OB/GYN in private practice.

|2.8.08 @ 12:52AM|#

Despite what the above posters (poseurs) claim, I am willing to give John McCain a chance as president, if only because a Hillary Clinton White House would be a disaster for liberty in America.

You heard it here first.

|2.8.08 @ 2:01AM|#

2. Romney crushed everyone else in the most libertarian states in the Nation: Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Montana and the champion of all libertarian states - ALASKA!

What do a large number of people in Nevada, Utah, Montana, and Colorado all have in common? Hint: its starts with an "M" and its a religion.

As for Alaska - come on dude - who really cares about Alaska?

|2.8.08 @ 2:29AM|#

The Doubletalk Express

John McCain is Dr. Strangelove

"A militarist suffering from acute narcissism and armed with the Bush Doctrine is not fit to be commander in chief."

Paul criticizes McCain at the CPAC (video)

|2.8.08 @ 3:33AM|#

Seems like Obama is peaking too soon. This bizzare Obama-mania came on too quickly, and is a little too cultish and empty not to inspire backlash among the Clintonistas at the heart of the Democratic party.

He's the first truly charismatic figure in American Politics since Reagan, but he hasn't been around long enough to come up with any real positions on anything. The lack of substance in the face of the Clintons lifelong nuts-n-bolts wonkery and real experience in Washington will only deepen the effect.

The real power in the Democratic party now are people who think government should be a professional endeavor run by professionals. The Clintons are their archetypes.

I say McCain over the Clinton, who is roundly hated outside of Democratic circles. She is also a woman, and that won't help.

GILMORE|2.9.08 @ 2:40PM|#

Eric Dondero | February 7, 2008, 8:35pm | #
I am planning on supporting Wayne Root for President.

Dondero,

No one cares. You're not useful for anything anymore than the occasional "fuck off, lame-o".

Do something 'productive for the "libertarian movement"' and burn yourself alive in front of the Dept of Agriculture or something.