Brian Doherty | January 4, 2005
The UK's Times reports that General Muhammad Abdullah Shahwani, director of Iraq's new intelligence services, thinks that insurgents in Iraq may outnumber U.S. and coalition forces, with more than 200,000 active fighters and supporters. And many of them are embedded in the Iraqi National Guard:
The commander of the Iraqi National Guard in Baghdad said that his forces were trying to root out guerrillas who had infiltrated his organisation, and who were passing on intelligence to the insurgents to enable the attacks. Major- General Mudhir Abood said that the problem had arisen because the force had been set up hastily in the face of a rapidly deteriorating security situation and that the new recruits had not been sufficiently vetted.
More than 1,000 police and National Guardsmen have been killed since the security forces were established after the war in relentless attacks aimed at plunging the country into chaos.
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So there are 200,000 ultra-statists who would enslave their own people --- still a lot less per-capita than here in the US. Or is the Party Line that these "insurgent" Baathists and Islamists are "Minutemen freedom fighters"? So hard to tell with so many here wearing Che T-Shirts....
because we all know that they're fighting against Freedom, don't we, mr question? because that's what mr rumsfeld has told us.
Shit, I think the US troops have over 200,000 supporters on my
block alone, if those "I support the troops" magnetic ribbons are
any guide. Then again, active support might only be limited to
those giving resources. This would be restricted to US taxpayers I
guess, not sure how many there are.
If only Bushchimp hadn't done away with the old Iraqi army, those
chaps could have been trusted.
Oh yes, I think what Rummie tells me to do. How clever. Is Baathism and Islamicism now the libertarian "anti-statist" platform? If so, consider me officially self-purged (yet again) as libertarianism around here has the value of used toilet paper.
Mark-
Could it be at all possible that what they hate is not Freedom, but
members and supporters of a foreign army that blew their houses to
smithereens and killed various friends and loved ones?
By the way, "You do what Rummy says" is no less and no more clever
than "So many people here wearing Che T-shirts."
The point is not that the insurgents or good or bad. The point is that the numbers Don't Work For Us.
"But members and supporters of a foreign army that blew their
houses to smithereens and killed various friends and loved
ones?"
Do you mean the Islamist/Al Queda fighters who "somehow" showed up
in Iraq immediately during/after the war, despite there be
absolutely no connection between Saddam and terrorists?
But I think you really mean the Evil US did all the blowing up. Too
bad most of the exploding is being done by the Insurgents whose aim
is to enslave the populace.
Why not, Mr. Henley? Based on what rationale? Surely there were
more than 200,000 Confederates in the South following the War
Between the States.
But (much to horror of Lew Rockwell & Co.) the KKK did little
to restart the Confederacy or slavery (though they did manage to
create terror and destruction toward black people and their liberal
supporters for many years - though I am not sure if any
libertarians justified the KKK because a foreign army that blew
their houses to smithereens. But it's been a while since I read
Lewrockwell.com).
"The point is not that the insurgents or good or bad."
This is a rather sick thing to read from a so-called
"libertarian."
Were the KKK neither "good nor bad"? What about gulag guards or the
NKVD?
Considering our kill ratio hovers somewhere above 15:1, I'm not
sure how this proves the numbers are against us.
And that assumes away the very squishy question of who was counted
as a "supporter."
I, too, share the dismay of Mr. Q at those who would elevate the
(a) foreign Islamists and (b) bitter-ender Baathists who make up
the "insurgency" to any kind of moral equivalence with the US and
other coalition troops.
You can argue with whether we should have gone into Iraq in the
first place, but I don't see how anyone can claim that the Iraqis
will be better off if the insurgents win.
This is a rather sick thing to read from a so-called
"libertarian."
Snarf. Willful category confusion is precocious in a tenth-grader.
After that, less so.
"I, too, share the dismay of Mr. Q at those who would elevate
the (a) foreign Islamists and (b) bitter-ender Baathists who make
up the "insurgency" to any kind of moral equivalence with the US
and other coalition troops."
It's Mark Q. who made the morally equivalent comparison of
"ultra-statists" in Iraq to their "counterparts" here.
The larger numbers don't mean anything militarily, but it's not
their goal to beat us militarily anyways. Their aims are political,
and if they outnumber us it would serve those aims.
Propaganda-wise.
"Do you mean the Islamist/Al Queda fighters who "somehow" showed up
in Iraq immediately during/after the war, despite there be
absolutely no connection between Saddam and terrorists?"
Since al Qaeda fighters like Mohammed Atta "somehow" showed up in
the U.S., I guess that means there must be a connection between
George Bush and al Qaeda.
Yeah, barring cooperation between Hussein and bin Laden, there's
just no way you could sneak anybody across the poorly guarded
borders into Iraq.
Too bad most of the exploding is being done by the
Insurgents whose aim is to enslave the populace.
i laugh at what people can convince themselves of.
you'd think the "Baathists and Islamists" (who are, of course, the
vast vast vaaast majority of people who hate the americans) would
have to be the ones with sidewinder-armed helicopters and
laser-guided 1000-pound high explosive munitions to do that kind of
damage -- wouldn't you?
i wonder, mr question, what percentage of flat fallujah you believe
was flattened by "Baathists and Islamists"?
Who here has said they'd be better off if the insurgents
won?
don't bother, ms jennifer -- if you question any part of the holy
of holies, Our Noble Struggle, you are a batshit-insane freak who
hates life and all things living.
But (much to horror of Lew Rockwell & Co.) the KKK did
little to restart the Confederacy or slavery (though they did
manage to create terror and destruction toward black people and
their liberal supporters for many years . . .
This being the non-asinine rejoinder to my original comment, it's
worth responding to.
Surely the KKK and the broader obstructionism of which it was the
most sinister edge, had a huge effect on the course of postwar
reconstruction. Doesn't a fair reading of post-bellum southern
history suggests that the white planter class preserved just about
as much power as it could realistically hope to preserve, given a
military defeat? When it became clear to the white North that the
choices were to give up the maximal aims of reconstruction or to
ride military herd on the white South in perpetuity, it chose the
former. That was it for black voting rights and office-holders; Jim
Crow followed thereafter.
I certainly don't count reconstruction as a win for the North (or
for racial justice and individual rights). I AM pleased to see
that, chastened by events, LR.com appears to be rethinking its
peculiar precept that "All governments are gangs, except for
Southern STATE governments." I would tell you that you'd be
comforted to know that they just ran a big "Don't romanticize the
confederacy" piece, but I fear you'd draw greater comfort from
continued foolishness on their parts regarding that topic.
gaius marius:
1) I don't assert that a majority of Iraqis are insurgents. We see
from above estimates of 200,000, which clearly not a
majority.
2) The police are usually better armed than the rapist or
serial-killer. They are still just in stopping rapists and
murderers from raping and murdering.
Mr. Henley - It was "asinine" of me to use a historical example? What if I used Vietnam? How about it, were the Vietcong and NLF "neither good and bad" for their enslavery of millions of Vietnamese? That was the Rothbardian position in the 1970s...so very close to the Rothbardian position in 2004 on the KKK and Baathist insurgents. Do you detect a trend?
but I don't see how anyone can claim that the Iraqis will be
better off if the insurgents win.
If one were to accept the fact that there is no alternative then
hoping for the insurgents to win is merely hoping for fewer lives
to be needlessly lost.
If one were to accept the further fact that this failed gamble is
breeding more hearts and minds for terrorism as it escalates, it
practically demands one to hope the insurgents win.
Mr. Henley - It was "asinine" of me to use a historical
example?
You know, I include quoted material to make it clear what I am and
am not responding to. The quoted material in the *snarf* post
should clarify what I consider "asinine."
Here's the thing. A lot of hawks seem to imagine that scoring
rhetorical points on Lew Rockwell or Michael Moore or whoever will
win the war. Or that if they just establish that all or most or
even some of the insurgents are Bad Guys, likewise. I'm banking
that actual existing trends, like the odds of prevailing against an
insurgency at fewer than 10:1 odds, are more relevant. The other
trend I'm looking at is the climb in estimated numbers of
insurgents from "a few bandits and diehards" to 5000 to 20,000 and
now, provisionally, 200,000, since summer of 2003. All this while
we've been enjoying the purported 15:1 kill ratios. This seems to
have a hell of a lot more to do with how things are likely to turn
out than whether you and RC Dean get in some japes against some of
the rest of us along the way.
Jim Henley didn't say the insurgents were neither good nor bad. He said whether they are good or bad is not the point.
Here's the thing, Mr. Henley:
1) It DOES matter if the insurgents are good or bad if we are
talking about morality. If they are bad, i.e. seeking to enslave
others, they need to be stopped, especially when we have the means
to do so. It is a MORAL issue.
2) You seem to dispute we have the MEANS to do so. It is a fair
point and worth debating.
3) But why do you go into a tizzy with when I point out that LRC
and Moore and others really are on the other side of the MORAL
issue? It is confusing! Here is a key passage from your post that
makes me ponder:
" you and RC Dean get in some japes against some of the REST OF US
along the way."
Emphasis is mine. So you claim it is isn't about the moral issue
but jump into the collective herd (the "us") that says it is. WHY?
It only fucks up YOUR argument that it is an issue of means.
Political gain (which hasn't happened)?
Mark Q - the "rest of us" statement was most likely only referring to commenters here on H&R.
Brian Doherty relates that, "The UK's Times reports that General
Muhammad Abdullah Shahwani, director of Iraq's new intelligence
services, thinks that insurgents in Iraq may outnumber U.S. and
coalition forces, with more than 200,000 active fighters and
supporters."
The solution is simple. Hire more Iraqis! Especially more Iraq
*women.* Hire 500,000 of them. No, hire 1 MILLION of them! They'll
work for peanuts (as compared to U.S. troops). To an Iraqi, $6,000
a year is very, very good money. Even doctors in Iraq don't make
that kind of money.
Let's say we hire 1 MILLION Iraqis, at an average of $6,000 a year.
That's $6 billion a year! It's nothing! The U.S. government spends
more than that on toilet seats. ;-)
Why, why, why doesn't George Bush take my advice? Is it because I
give my advice in my pajamas? ;-)
Brian Doherty continues, "And many of them are embedded in the
Iraqi National Guard:..."
That problem solves itself! As noted in the article, more than
*1000* Iraqi police and National Guard troops have been murdered
already. That is bound to annoy the ones who haven't yet been
killed. The Iraqi National Guard and police will cleanse themselves
of insurgents, as long as the leadership at the top is not
involved.
G.W. Bush: Hire more Iraqis! A MILLION more. (Or even TWO MILLION!)
And bring the U.S. grunts back home. They U.S. troops did their
job...they got rid of Saddam and his government.
The police are usually better armed than the rapist or
serial-killer. They are still just in stopping rapists and
murderers from raping and murdering.
except that the police aren't dropping high explosives into
populated city blocks. don't be disingenuous, mr question. you
accept that the slaughter is noble and therefore right, or you
don't.
A lot of hawks seem to imagine that scoring rhetorical points
on Lew Rockwell or Michael Moore or whoever will win the war. Or
that if they just establish that all or most or even some of the
insurgents are Bad Guys, likewise. I'm banking that actual existing
trends, like the odds of prevailing against an insurgency at fewer
than 10:1 odds, are more relevant. The other trend I'm looking at
is the climb in estimated numbers of insurgents from "a few bandits
and diehards" to 5000 to 20,000 and now, provisionally, 200,000,
since summer of 2003. All this while we've been enjoying the
purported 15:1 kill ratios. This seems to have a hell of a lot more
to do with how things are likely to turn out than whether you and
RC Dean get in some japes against some of the rest of us along the
way.
here here, mr henley.
but, as long as the cause is "noble", you can be sure the romantics
will keep throwing people onto the pyre. it really doesn't matter
for people like this what actually happens -- the measure of
success is not in the evidence or the outcome. the struggle
is the noble object -- to prove one's self as a Great Man in a
Great Nation.
there is no end to the murder that thinking will excuse.
Jennifer writes, "Could it be at all possible that what they
hate is not Freedom, but members and supporters of a foreign army
that blew their houses to smithereens and killed various friends
and loved ones?"
And what about the blowing to smithereens of Iraqi National Guard
and police? Or the Christians coming out of churches, or the Shia
pilgrims? What explains that? Bad hair days?
And what about the warnings/announcements that they will kill
everyone involved in elections, including voters? That would be
love of freedom, but hatred of elections?
And what about the blowing to smithereens of Iraqi National
Guard and police? Or the Christians coming out of churches, or the
Shia pilgrims? What explains that? Bad hair days?
"they started it"? mr bahner? seriously?
The fact is, we are in a war, which creates a fairly binary
solution set: we win, or our enemies win.
One question, which there seems to be a fair amount of ambiguity
about, is which side SHOULD win.
Pavel, rather idiotically, seems to think that we have already
lost, and that the defeat of the US in Iraq would be a good thing,
because our defeat will somehow discourage terrorist recruitment,
while our victories somehow encourage it.
Others seem curiously unwilling to admit that we do, in fact, hold
the moral/libertarian high ground (as opposed to our enemies, at
any rate) and that the people of Iraq will be better off if we win,
and the insurgents lose.
I have no problem debating ways and means of advancing liberty in
the near term and the long term, here and abroad. I see no reason,
however, to believe that a defeat for the US in Iraq will do
either.
As for the question of whether anyone on this discussion has called
for the defeat of the US (other than Pavel), well, I haven't read
anyone other than Mr. Q who seems to believe that, since we are in
Iraq, we might as well see it through and win this thing.
If Mark Question is still here, I'd like to rephrase my earlier
question to him:
Is it possible that at least SOME of the insurgents might have
legitimate reasons for hating the US and fighting its
soldiers?
Please understand that I refer specifically to the insurgents who
are attacking soldiers; the ones attacking Iraqi civilians are the
garden-variety scumballs who'd appear in ANY situation where
society has been blown to hell and replaced with anarchy.
gaius marius: My feelings for the insurgents are Sic Semper
Tyrannis, regardless of the means of their demise. They made their
fate when they threw their lot with violent statists.
The deaths of innocents are a tragedy, but I still blame the
criminal when a policemen accidently shoots a civilian.
Turning my back on someone being enslaved, raped or murder, or
blaming their rescuer for the actions of the criminal, is slavish
and ignoble.
what about the warnings/announcements that they will kill
everyone involved in elections, including voters? That would be
love of freedom, but hatred of elections?
indeed, what of them? the rebellion against america's army is
complex -- i fully concede that some core group of jihadi are
there, and that some issue such messages and perform
incomprehensible acts. but mr henley is right -- it doesn't go from
(if you believe the numerology) 5000 to 20,000 to 200,000 because
crazy jihadi are flooding the country.
as with all classical insurgencies, this one has the popular
sympathy -- due mostly to american mismanagement starting at DoD --
and is gaining new adherents with every abu ghraib photo, with
every power outage, with every airstrike called in, with every
fortress built.
this thing has become textbook "what not to do" in occupying
hostile territory. we have made our problems significantly worse by
our incompetence and arrogance.
most of these people want self-determination (though not western
freedom, most of them) and are clearly convinced they won't get it
with the americans hanging around. and i don't see any reason to
believe otherwise -- the elections will be an american-run sham,
plainly, with no unamerican outcome allowed. that is not
self-determination, and they know it. therefore, they resist.
It DOES matter if the insurgents are good or bad if we are
talking about morality. If they are bad, i.e. seeking to enslave
others, they need to be stopped, especially when we have the means
to do so. It is a MORAL issue.
Nobody was talking about morality except you, pal. The original
post was about numbers. You're the one who brought in a bunch of
bullshit ad hominems and skylarking about who's good and who's bad.
That's because you have nothing to say on the matter at hand. Which
in turn is because the matter at hand deals with questions of
reality and feasibility, concepts that don't apply in the ass where
you keep your head.
R C Dean-
Our cause is just. Morally, it would be far better if we win.
My only concern is that I don't see any way for the US to bring
order and liberalization to Iraq (last I heard, liberalizing the
Middle East was one of the President's main reasons for invading
Iraq, please correct me if I'm wrong). The most successful efforts
at building liberal democracy tend to be home-grown.
We should win, but I don't know if we can. If we can't, then maybe
we should cut our losses rather than asking even more people to die
for something that is impossible.
Which in turn is because the matter at hand deals with
questions of reality and feasibility, concepts that don't apply in
the ass where you keep your head.
OUCH!!!
Do not mess with Mr. Cavanaugh!
Jennifer: They may hate the US but emotion does not equal
morality.
I am sure some in the SS Panzer divisions had reason to hate the
invaders, but it didn't make their cause nor actions
legitimate.
I don't consider actions which empower some to enslave others as
legitimate. Maybe you do.
(PS: Before someone brings up the taxation issue to fund the war,
understand I also support your right to NOT pay your taxes).
hold the moral/libertarian high ground
we lie to war, we kill thousands for our own causes, and we are on
the high ground?
lying and war are on the high moral ground?
you can call it many things, but it is NEVER that.
mr dean, you are irremediable. i simply hope you grow wise as you
get older, before you have an opportunity to do great damage to
yourself and your loved ones in some self-adjudged noble cause, and
learn the insanity of such nihilistic perversion as you espouse
now.
unfortunately, it is all of us that are bearing the weight of the
neoconservative experiement with the nobility of disaster.
Do not mess with Mr. Cavanaugh!
Yeah, sorry Mark Q., I'm in a bad mood. You're still talking
nonsense, but I'm in a bad mood.
ss panzer divisions?
oh my, indeed.
just a little hyperbole and misdirection here.
what about my relatives who hate the british for what happened to
dresedn? and no, one relative was, um, deported. i was never told
why...
and what the hell is all this talk about "enslaving"? we're trying
to win the hearts and minds here. HEARTS and MINDS.
ad hoc arguments abound. my oh my. panzer divisions.
chuckle chuckle.
panzers. comparisons with nazis. wow. argumentation!
Mark-
Ah, so Iraqis who fight US soldiers who invaded their country and
destroyed their homes are the moral equivalent of the invading
armies of the SS. Every single insurgent is an evil stain to be
bleached out.
Very well, then. Do you think maybe Rumsfeld should start heeding
all the generals who told him they'd need two or three times as
many troops (and ammo, and vehicles, and weapons, and food and a
zillion other logistical things) as they have, to get their morally
just and entirely unavoidable job done?
Gaius Marius writes, "they started it"? mr bahner?
seriously?
No, Mr. Marius. I'm asking Jennifer what all those Freedom Fighters
are doing killing Iraqi policemen and National Guard troops. Not to
mention Christians and Shia pilgrims.
My questions are basically rhetorical. It's obvious to anyone who
thinks about it rationally that the people blowing up policemen and
National Guard troops and Christians and Shia pilgrims and oil
pipelines and electrical towers are *not* interested in freedom. At
least not for anyone but themselves.
But it appears Jennifer has at least partially realized that. She
writes, "Please understand that I refer specifically to the
insurgents who are attacking soldiers; the ones attacking Iraqi
civilians are the garden-variety scumballs..."
But then she adds, "...who'd appear in ANY situation where society
has been blown to hell and replaced with anarchy."
The only "chaos and anarchy" now in Iraq are caused precisely by
those scumballs!
Cavanaugh (aka coversationally-challenged asshoel):
"Nobody was talking about morality except you, pal."
Nobody was talking at all dumbshit. I was the second post.
"The original post was about numbers. You're the one who brought in
a bunch of bullshit ad hominems and skylarking about who's good and
who's bad."
Which parts were ad hominem? Which parts bullshit? Seriously, I
want to know. It's called a discussion, not a lecture
fucktard.
"That's because you have nothing to say on the matter at
hand."
Indeed I did. I made a snarky comment which kicked off an
interesting conversation. Until your rightous-but-rude ass showed
up to try to spoil it.
"Which in turn is because the matter at hand deals with questions
of reality and feasibility, concepts that don't apply in the ass
where you keep your head."
Just because you are close-minded doesn't mean we all have to
be.
But I am done, because you banned me (too bad I can change my IP
address). Enjoy the echo-chamber.
"But I am done, because you banned me (too bad I can change my
IP address). Enjoy the echo-chamber."
really?
did he do that?
my oh my. can i see your muscle mark q? oh wait are you suzy in
drag?
mr tough guy is gone a few seconds and i miss him already.
i hate it when people try to justify the iraq war in terms of
fighting the nazis.
I wrote (rhetorically), "what about the warnings/announcements
that they will kill everyone involved in elections, including
voters? That would be love of freedom, but hatred of
elections?"
Gaius Marius responded, "indeed, what of them?"
They are filthy scum, gaius. Isn't that obvious?
Turning my back on someone being enslaved, raped or murder,
or blaming their rescuer for the actions of the criminal, is
slavish and ignoble.
if i trusted your ability to determine what is good, mr question --
indeed, if there were some universal standard -- i wonder if we
would disagree.
but the history of noble heroism is instead the history of fascism,
totalitarianism and slaughter in the name of what is "right" and
"noble" precisely because the ethic of heroism despises community
and compromise in the name of sensibility and pragmatism. it is
this heroic ethic under which the neocon-run united states has
acted, specifically against all the pleadings of our friends, much
to the chagrin of all the world -- but especially, in time, our
own.
gaius marius: Would love to respond, but my IP address was banned. I am clearly not welcome here, so I will cease posting. Have a great day.
"as with all classical insurgencies, this one has the popular
sympathy"
That is utter rubbish. Where are the demonstrations in favor of the
U.S. leaving Iraq, and the signs with Saddam Hussein's and Abu
Musab al Zarqawi's face on them?
I'll tell you where they are...nowhere! The reason is that if such
a demonstration were to be held, IRAQIS would tear the demonstators
to pieces!
would these be family members of the same iraqis we've been torturing before setting them free? the same iraqis who see us using brutal methods in the worst prison in iraq - where the families in question see no difference between then and now?
thoreau writes, "My only concern is that I don't see any way for
the US to bring order and liberalization to Iraq..."
The U.S. has ALREADY brought more liberalization to Iraq than they
ever experienced under Saddam Hussein.
Iraq under Saddam Hussein was among the 2 or 3 worst countries in
the whole world for combined political/civil and economic freedom,
as measured by Freedom House and the Heritage Foundation,
respectively.
The odds that Iraq will ever be as illiberal as it was under Saddam
Hussein are not very high.
As far as "order" goes, it's over-rated. But if you're referring to
reductions in murders and kidnappings, that's going to take time.
And the *Iraqis* are going to have to do it.
They are filthy scum, gaius. Isn't that obvious?
no, mr bahner -- it isn't. they are also fathers and sons, lovers
of their country and their tradition, and many of them lovers of
peace like you and i who fight only to rid themselves of what they
must see as a foreign plague afflicting their homes.
not to be on our end of these men is why initiating elective,
pre-emptive invasions and imperial forays are morally
indefensible.
It's obvious to anyone who thinks about it rationally that the
people blowing up policemen and National Guard troops and
Christians and Shia pilgrims and oil pipelines and electrical
towers are *not* interested in freedom.
this is only evidence of what you assume if you assume that these
people are operating from your viewpoint. is there anything that
says right and decent iraqis cannot view these men as the american
revolutionaries viewed benedict arnold -- as traitors to their
culture?
let me be clear: killing is wrong, and is unjustifiable against
innocents. but it is not iraqis who started this killing -- and now
that chaos is upon them, you won't find many calm hearts there to
make easy decisions. chaos is infectious, and these men are just
men, animals in a stampede of revolution.
that any of us expected anything different in doing what we did was
foolish.
to start making summary judgements about causation in such complex
situations, casting aspersions on the motives upon any group of
mankind by reducing their complexity in the midst of anarchy is
almost always useless. none of us can sit here and claim to know
the motives of the rebellion, except to say that they are
complex.
The U.S. has ALREADY brought more liberalization to Iraq
than they ever experienced under Saddam Hussein.
what is your mental picture of iraq right now, i wonder, mr
bahner?
Mark Q.-
You brought up the SS Panzers. What do you think about the French
and Dutch insurgents who fought against the German occupiers in
World War Two? Not during the actual invasion, but during the
occupation? They didn't just attack Germans when they could; they
even attacked their own countrymen, who chose to side with or work
for the invaders.
Or, for a less Godwinesque comparison, the various colonial peoples
who fought against the British, Belgian and other European
armies/exploiters in the nineteenth century?
Mark B.-
The same basic type of scumball shows itself here in America from
time to time, like during the LA riots or various other crisis
situations. Fortunately, those little insurrections are confined to
much smaller areas of discontent, and even in crime dens like LA
and Detroit it's still pretty hard for the average person to get
hold of rocket launchers and the like.
Ask Reginald Denny if innocent people in America ever get
brutalized by slimeballs using a politically motivated disturbance
to commit acts of random violence. In America such things happen on
a much smaller scale than they do in the country we bombed to shit
two years ago and have been trying to control ever since, but they
happen still, because they exist in human nature, regardless of
country.
The people who fight our soldiers are not to be confused with the
people who murder civilians.
"I hate it when people try to justify the iraq war in terms of
fighting the nazis."
Maybe some of us see a similarity when we look at mass grave sites
in Iraq:
http://cpa-iraq.org/images/massgraves.jpg
The people who fight our soldiers are not to be confused
with the people who murder civilians.
precisely. conflating the two may be convenient for the defense of
the hubristic american-heroic viewpoint, but it is not
evidenciary.
Mark Q was banned? Wow. Has anybody besides spammers and such been banned before?
Maybe some of us see a similarity when we look at mass grave
sites in Iraq:
again, mr bahner, many of the people fighting us are many of the
same who *fought* saddam. saddam bad -- yes, we know. that does not
mean american occupation good, a priori.
"what is your mental picture of iraq right now, i wonder, mr
bahner?"
My mental picture right now is that the thugs and assassins are no
longer running the government, but have not yet been captured and
imprisoned.
A poor understanding of Reconstruction and post-Reconstruction Southern state governments has become attached to this conversation. Reconstructionist (if by this we mean 1862-1877) and Post-Reconstruction governments (if by this we mean post-1877) were continuously rocked by efforts to re-establish slavery in another form (any cursory survey of the history of slavery will show that this is a common feature of most post-emancipation efforts). The governments which followed the collapse of Reconstruction efforts in a particular state (that is from the late 1860s onward) were called "redeemer" governments and they were run by Democrats who wanted to re-establish slavery informally via de jure and de facto methods. Such methods were evidenced in everything from fencing and hunting laws to laws concerning gun ownership. They were also quite effective, though not equally effective everywhere; for example, while black belt and delta cotton areas were more readily managed in these ways, the rice producing areas of coastal South Carolina and Georgia were never able to re-establish these social relations and blacks in these areas enjoyed a greater freedom than their bretheren in the black belt of Alabama.
that's what i suspected, mr bahner -- and that isn't quite
enough.
it should also include an american appointed ex-assassin as
president of the country, which is run by a brutally authoritarian
bureaucracy backed by a foreign army whose troops are famed for
imprisoning, torturing and raping innocent iraqis, which is setting
up an election scheme amidst chaos in which no anti-occupation
result will be allowed.
liberal? hardly. closer to retrograde at the moment, i'm
afraid.
we have only our long-indoctrinated faith in american goodness to
make us believe it will get better. these people don't have that.
is it really a surprise that they resist?
Jennifer:
Sorry, I don't feel welcome to post here anymore. Some would rather
marginalize me or ban my IP address without explanation than talk
(which is their right as it is their property. But they are fools
if they think everyone here uses their real IP address). This is my
last post to you.
I think the French resistance was justified because the Vichy and
Germans were fascist, oppressive regimes (though some on the
resistance were communist, the aim was restoration of the French
republic). In contrast, the new Iraqi republic is clearly not
designed to be oppressive or fascist.
Thank you for the question. I appologize if I was rude.
thoreau,
The justice of the cause depends on which side you are on. I know
in the U.S. that's not a particularly popular notion with me, but
this is one instance where I agree with Julius Ceasar, Cicero,
etc., as opposed to most scholastic scholars.
gary:
it's sort of a goodwin's law of the civil war (cletus's law?) that
gets thrown out. if you can't beat 'em with a stupid, ignorant,
appeal to pathos nazi argument, you try for the "gotcha" KKK
argument.
and it's interesting blaming a criminal for a policeman's pulling
the trigger. i always knew hawk kooks were against the
responsibility of the individual. now they're forgiving people who
actually do the act. "it's not their fault".
OK - one last post, just to be a dick. Check out Tor, it hides
your IP address:
http://tor.eff.org/
There is chance that I was using an IP address that Reason banned
because of Spam...but it seems a little to coincidental for Tim to
badmouth me and five seconds later have the IP not work.
"America such things happen on a much smaller scale than they do
in the country we bombed to shit two years ago..."
Jennifer, when you use language like that, you lose all credibility
with me. (Not the swearing, I don't give a @#$% about that.
;-))
There is no way in the world that a rational analysis of Iraq can
be that it was, "bombed to shit two years ago."
THIS is "bombed to shit":
http://www.angelfire.com/az/nativebob/imagestn3/tndresden_wwiibombing.jpg
...and THIS is "bombed to shit":
http://www.ettnet.se/~stefan-a/hiroshima/mini004.jpg
There has never been a war since WII that had LESS damage to
infrastructure than the U.S. invasion and occupation of Iraq in
2003! And never has so much attention been paid so quickly to
rebuilding an occupied country.
Water, sewer, electricity, hospitals, schools...ALL of those things
are at or better than they were before the first U.S. bomb was
dropped in 2003. (And virtually all of the problems in those areas
are caused by the filthy scum deliberately kidnapping and shooting
doctors and government ministers, and blowing up oil pipelines and
electrical facilities.)
mark:
the-cloak is another. there are tons of them out there. and there
are some good programs (proxomitron), anti spy, a-squared, etc.
that do a good job with spyware, general PC security holes,
etc.
happy surfing.
Well did you ban me or not? And am I any worse than drf or the others who are assholes around here?
Hooray for this new-found liberalization of Iraq! They've lost
their homes or at least their electricity and other vital services,
they can't walk down the street without serious risk of getting
killed (why or by whom doesn't matter to them, they're just dead),
they have no jobs, they have no money, the Americans are torturing
them in prisons, but now the Iraqis are allowed to have SATELLITE
DISHES!!!!
At the end of the day that's what matters, man.
The estimated number of actual insurgents, according to this
article, is 40,000. That number doesn't outnumber the allied
forces.
In order to make the "they outnumber us" claim, they had to add in
the total of people who support the insurgents. But they seem to
have neglected to add the allied and/or Iraqi government supporters
to the "allied" side of the equation. The available evidence is
that supporters of the insurgency are outnumbered by opponents of
it within Iraq, so it seems unlikely to me that the total of
(insurgents + supporters) is greater than the total of (allies +
Iraqi forces + supporters).
no mark.
you're not as bad. you're just a tough guy with big muscles.
please flex again.
i guess being nice and tossing around some computer stuff is beyond
you.
oh well.
but i'll have to have a nightlight because i'll have visions of
your anti nazi parade marching through to the tune of "raindrops
keep fallin on my head" or some such.
such a tough guy.
panzers.
Mark Bahner--
All right, let me then rephrase in an utterly straightforward and
non-ambiguous manner: instead of 'Country we bombed to shit,' make
it 'country we dropped a lot of bombs on two years ago, and while
we certainly didn't destroy the entire country we destroyed enough
of it to make a LOT of people very angry, and to seriously
inconvenience a great many other people in re electricity and
sewers and stuff, and even if they ARE better off now than they
were under Saddam they don't seem to feel that way and whether or
not this is just we pretty much have to deal with it?'
Christ.
"it should also include an american appointed ex-assassin as
president of the country,..."
So that's why the scum are killing Iraq police and National Guard
troops?
"...which is run by a brutally authoritarian bureaucracy..."
Gaius, your comment is even MORE devoid of reality than Jennifers!
Iraq's "brutal authoritarian bureaucracy" allows more freedom than
the majority of Middle Eastern countries. And infinitely more
freedom than under Saddam Hussein. Look at Iraq versus Iran, Saudi
Arabia, Syria, etc. Iraq has MORE free newspapers. MORE unblocked
Internet sites. MORE satellite dishes. MORE freedom of dress and
speech and religion.
Missing a comma: "whether or not this was just, we pretty much have to deal with it."
mr bahner, it's safe to conclude for the comments of the last
half-hour that you are living in a bubble of your own
construction.
mr cavanaugh (and friends at reason), this is what i mean when i
argue that the proliferation of news sources and the killing of the
gatekeepers leads not to a better-informed society but to a more
mystic society -- one in which people cherry-pick information to
fit their preconceived notions -- because people cannot disseminate
information critically and rationally.
such a society may well be less vulnerable to centralized state
propaganda, but it is far more vulnerable to consisting mostly of
self-deluded individuals detached from any uncomfortable
reality.
Mark Bahner,
Iraq's "brutal authoritarian bureaucracy" allows more freedom
than the majority of Middle Eastern countries.
That likely depends on the nature of the freedom and how much each
government enforces each restriction.
And infinitely more freedom than under Saddam
Hussein.
Freedom of religious belief and clothing choice weren't
particularly restricted in Saddam's Iraq as I understand it. And
clearly religious elements in Iraq are flexing their muscles
regarding women's dress in a way that may have been impossible
under Saddam's regime.
If your argument is that some benefit has come to the Iraqis via
the invasion, that's readily conceded, but the question is whether
that benefit is readily sustained and whether those benefits
outweight the costs.
"Country we bombed to shit,' make it 'country we dropped a lot
of bombs on two years ago, and while we certainly didn't destroy
the entire country we destroyed enough of it to make a LOT of
people very angry,..."
Jennifer, Iraq has approximately 23 million people. (Or maybe it's
24 million, now that Iraqis have returned BACK to Iraq after the
fall of Saddam Hussein.) Of those 23 million people, I doubt that
even 2 million of those people were "very angry" as a result of our
bombing.
"...and to seriously inconvenience a great many other people in re
electricity and sewers and stuff,..."
No, Jennifer. That's not right. There was more electricity and
sewer and water service in Iraq by April 2004 (1 year after the
bombing ended) than there was before the bombing started.
"...and even if they ARE better off now than they were under Saddam
they don't seem to feel that way..."
The majority of Iraqi DO feel that way (that they are better off
now than they were under Saddam Hussein). And the majority of
Iraqis are optimistic that a year from now they will be even better
off than they are now.
"Christ."
I know it's frustrating to argue something when the facts aren't on
your side, Jennifer. But the solution is to GET the facts. It's not
hard to do in the Age of Google. Maybe you'll even change your
mind. (I remain optimistic, but I won't be holding my breath.)
Jennifer writes, "...but now the Iraqis are allowed to have
SATELLITE DISHES!!!!
At the end of the day that's what matters, man."
Jennifer, in both Afghanistan and Iraq, the population went
absolutely bonkers for satellite dishes after the fall of the their
repressive governments.
To someone like you who has never been isolated from the outside
world, that may seem like nothing. But to them, their newfound
freedom to learn about the outside world was apparently
significant. (If one can judge by their actions.)
Mark Bahner,
Of those 23 million people, I doubt that even 2 million of
those people were "very angry" as a result of our
bombing.
Carry to give us the citation where you get this "fact" from?
:)
There was more electricity and sewer and water service in Iraq
by April 2004 (1 year after the bombing ended) than there was
before the bombing started.
Actually, the sewer and water service have broken down again, and
despite there being more electricity there are also more black and
brownouts. This latter consideration is important because it feeds
on the local population's perception that shit is really fucked up.
In other words, you can say that there is more electricity, but if
it can't keep up with demand, people are going to lose faith and
get frustrated.
The majority of Iraqi DO feel that way (that they are better
off now than they were under Saddam Hussein). And the majority of
Iraqis are optimistic that a year from now they will be even better
off than they are now.
Citation?
The estimated number of actual insurgents, according to this
article, is 40,000. That number doesn't outnumber the allied
forces.
In order to make the "they outnumber us" claim, they had to add
in the total of people who support the insurgents. But they seem to
have neglected to add the allied and/or Iraqi government supporters
to the "allied" side of the equation.
Good point. The article is actually a little fuzzy on what the
other 160,000 are doing. Specifically, it says:
General Shahwani said that there were at least 40,000 hardcore fighters attacking US and Iraqi troops, with the bulk made up of part-time guerrillas and volunteers providing logistical support, information, shelter and money.
I could read that one of two ways: Either the bulk of the 40,000
are "part-time guerrillas and volunteers..." or that the bulk of
the 200,000 are in those support capacities and the 40,000 are
hard-core fighters. My inclination is toward the second
explanation, based purely on the wording of the article.
Now, the proper number for comparison is not 40,000 fighters vs.
the total number of US and Iraqi forces. Not all of the US forces
in Iraq are in the infantry or other units that routinely fight
(although obviously ALL of our soldiers run the risk of
encountering the enemy, and should be commended for their courage).
Some are mechanics, cooks, technicians, etc.
My interpretation is that there are 160,000 Iraqis acting in a
support capacity for 40,000 hard-core fighters. Also, because that
160,000 figure includes a significant number in the Iraqi police
and armed forces, it diminishes the number that we can consider
when adding up US and Iraqi forces. A soldier passing info to the
other side can only be considered a liability, not an asset.
Finally, although we do need to include in our totals those Iraqis
supporting us, we obviously should only count
active supporters when making a comparison. It's
great to know that Yusuf Al Schmoe (Arabic for "Joe Schmoe") thinks
the US presence is positive, and I hope that he votes for
liberal-minded candidates in the upcoming elections. But we can't
consider him as canceling out somebody who provides shelter to
guerrilla fighters unless he is actively aiding the occupation.
That's not a criticism of Yusuf Al Schmoe, it's just a matter of
making accurate comparisons.
As always, numbers require careful analysis.
Mark,
From this analysis:
In other words you are geusstimating and making shit up; it isn't a
"fact" from any "citation." Apparently you don't take your own
advice seriously.
There is simply no way that present wastewater treatment is
LESS than that.
But of course it could be the same.
But a major problem has been the "freedom fighters" attacking
infrastructure...
That's just an excuse as are your statements regarding Iraq's
electricity problems; either the situation has improved or it
hasn't - you presented in that binary fashion and I'll hold you to
that pattern.
A March 2004 poll doesn't tell me much. You're the guru of
citations; I would have expected something better.
I'm a little late to this thread, so pardon me but, just for
clarification...
Is somebody tryin' to argue that Iraqis, in general,
supported their own bombing?
...?!
Mark B. maybe I'm really dense, but I have to ask, if Iraq is so much better off than it was before the war, then why do the Iraqis continue to support the insurgents? Are all these Iraqis really so wedded to ideology that they're willing to act against their own interests to, in effect, bite the hand that is feeding them?
People who want to make factual statements about Iraqi
infrastructure and opinion polling may find the Saban Center's Iraq
Index a good place to start:
http://www.brookings.edu/iraqindex
It's limited by the data it can acquire, but it's a useful starting
point.
Finally, although we do need to include in our totals those
Iraqis supporting us, we obviously should only count active
supporters when making a comparison.
Thoreau,
The problem, of course, is that the term "active supporter" is left
undefined.
If "active supporter" refers to those who work in a full-time or
part-time logistical/support capacity for the insurgency, then it
is reasonable to count as "active supporters of the Iraqi
government" anyone (who isn't a mole for the insurgency) who works
full or part-time for the government or the allies. Hundreds of
thousands of Iraqis meet those criteria.
But I suspect that the term "active supporter" casts a wider net
than that. I suspect it was meant to include, for example, people
don't work full or part-time for the insurgents, but who are
willing to shelter members of the insurgency, pass along
information about targets of opportunity, etc. Casting an equally
wide net on the other side would, I suspect, yield millions of
"active allied/Iraqi government supporters" -- people willing to
turn in insurgents, provide information about them, or actively
assist Iraqi government and/or allied forces.
maybe I'm really dense, but I have to ask, if Iraq is so
much better off than it was before the war, then why do the Iraqis
continue to support the insurgents?
Iraq as a whole is better off. Most Iraqis, individually, are
better off. Some Iraqis, however, are much worse off --
specifically, the ones who used to be in charge. They represent
most of the insurgency and its support network. This is why most of
the insurgency problems have been in former Ba'athist
strongholds.
"Jennifer, Iraq has approximately 23 million people. (Or
maybe it's 24 million, now that Iraqis have returned BACK to Iraq
after the fall of Saddam Hussein.) Of those 23 million people, I
doubt that even 2 million of those people were "very angry" as a
result of our bombing."
That's rich.
I'd like to state, just for the record, that if anyone bombs the
United States, even if they do so thinking that it's for our own
good, I will be one of the people who is "very angry" as a
result.
Dear Mr. or Ms. Iraqi citizen:
Please answer the following question to the best of your ability.
Once you have completed the questionaire, please hand it in at the
nearest checkpoint.
When the United States bombed Iraq, did it make you feel...
A) Good
B) Indifferent
C) Angry
D) "Very Angry"
E) Both C and D
The US Department of Defense thanks you for your cooperation.
Dan,
Thankyou for illustrating the idiocy of Bremer. :)
Some Iraqis, however, are much worse off -- specifically, the
ones who used to be in charge. They represent most of the
insurgency and its support network.
That of course includes most of the non-Kurd Sunni population, most
of whom in and around Baghdad. If this portion of Iraq cannot be
stabilized then Iraq is not a viable national entity. So yes,
you're right to state that the insurgency is localized, but that
merely ignores the importance of the local areas where it is being
prosecuted in. You're a shifty one Dan.
The period of greatest pro-American sentiment among Iraqis was the immediate aftermath of the invasion -- in other words, immediately following the period of intense bombing. It is therefore obvious that the bombing wasn't a significant source of Iraqi anger. This is hardly surprising, considering that the bombing had little direct impact on most Iraqis' lives. What has caused our relationship to sour is the continuing presence of our troops in Iraq. The bombing was not; it was, if not welcome, at least *understood* to be a necessary part of the removal of Hussein's regime.
How many Iraqis do you personally know? The three I work with
(who left Iraq between 1989-1992) have lost close family members to
"shock and awe" bombings and have had to continuously send money
back to support other relatives who have no money, jobs or
prospects of getting either anytime soon.
All your "analysis" sounds like it came from Bill O'Reilly's
wishful thinking.
That of course includes most of the non-Kurd Sunni
population, most of whom in and around Baghdad
That is, of course, a ridiculous claim. Even among the Sunni there
is little nostalgia for the Hussein era.
But it does fit your standard operating procedure: begin with the
assumption that the Iraq project will end in dismal failure, and
then make whatever unsupported claims are necessary to fit the
available facts to that prediction.
Dan,
That is, of course, a ridiculous claim.
No it isn't and if you knew anything about the Ba'athist power
structure you would know that Saddam's regime had its fingers into
many pies and that when Bremer gutted system he ticked off a lot of
people who had lost their sinecures, etc. Even Bremer admits that
this was a mistake now. Its those people who were taken down a peg
or two - the people who lost their jobs, etc. - that are now part
of the insurgency.
...unsupported claims...
My claim is based on your original claim about those who lost their
jobs; you just don't like the implications of your claim now.
Dan,
And let's note the most important part of my statement, that you
"conveniently" ignored:
If this portion of Iraq cannot be stabilized then Iraq is
not a viable national entity. So yes, you're right to state that
the insurgency is localized, but that merely ignores the importance
of the local areas where it is being prosecuted in.
Originally you acted like this was a localized or particularized
affair that only a minority of the population supported and that
this made it somehow less important. However it becomes apparent on
further reflection that you're just playing a shell game here.
There's no question that many Shia were downright enthusiastic
about not living under the Butcher of Baghdad--especially before
the incompetence of the Bush Administration's post war plan became
so painfully obvious. However, how you managed to confuse that
initial Shia enthusiasm with generalized, passive support among
Iraqis for their own bombing is beyond me.
...By the way, before we justify the bombing by Iraq's success,
let's see what happens next. Iraq doesn't look anything like a
success yet; indeed, there may yet be a civil war or some fresh
dictator that will make life under the Saddam Hussein regime look
desirable to many Iraqis by comparison.
God forbid.
Dan,
BTW, I've never claimed that it will end in a dismal failure; you
must be confusing me with someone else. I just don't share your
wilfully blind, pollyannish worldview on the matter that's all.
Well, that, and most of us who didn't support this entirely
elective war told you that Iraq would prove to be a trap that would
be difficult for the U.S. pry itself away from.
Ken,
Presumably someday in the distant future Iraq will rise out of the
muck, but that will likely have very little to do with the U.S.
effort there. Iran is going to be the progressive, liberal place
neo-conservatives jizz over, but without a U.S. invasion to screw
it up. Call me a neo-Burkean. :)
...many of them are embedded in the Iraqi National
Guard...
That means of course that they can not only be spies, etc., but
that they also get a paycheck and support that the insurgency
doesn't have to fork over. Sounds like the best of both worlds for
the insurgency.
According to the latest issue of the Economist (which, FWIW,
endorsed the war), the insurgents are now assuming the powers of a
local government in parts of Iraq:
-Executing criminals (and you know it's bad when even the
insurgents deem somebody reprehensible!)
-Levying taxes
-Imposing price controls on meat
And no, the last one wasn't a joke. The insurgents are now busy
trying to prove that they can mismanage an economy just as badly as
any politician!
It's only a matter of time before the insurgents establish costly
entitlement programs.
thoreau
This is not surprising. In neighborhoods in Northern Ireland the
IRA became a de facto govt punishing local punks for things like
car theft and burglary. They were not particularly nice about it
either.
Of course this was not all driven by civic concern. After all,
petty crime brings unwanted attention from the police.
What has caused our relationship to sour is the continuing
presence of our troops in Iraq. The bombing was not; it was, if not
welcome, at least *understood* to be a necessary part of the
removal of Hussein's regime.
mr dan, you speak as though the killing ever really stopped. i
submit it hasn't, and that it doesn't matter who is doing the
killing (though we certainly have killed our share -- and could
hardly help it, considering our tactical preponderance for
blockwrecking airstrikes). what iraqis are rebelling against is
chaos -- the open and obvious rumsfeldian fuckup that has been the
occupation from day one.
with no guarantee of security, people will search for security
where they can find it.
in combination with the iraqi desire for self-determination --
something no american-rigged election will provide them -- the
iraqis are increasingly supporting the rebellion.
and, if the economist isn't making things up, their trust is being
rewarded. it isn't civil liberty, i'm sure, but but i doubt they
care. it is order and not chaos, and it is iraqi and not
american.
When is it, exactly, that the Libertarian cause I was so fond of
in my youth became controlled by a bunch of anti-American
children?
I find it disturbing that a cause that used to be so closely
associated with all the best qualities that made this country what
it is today has so quickly become a festering swamp of malcontents
and loafers. Have I changed, or is it just that the snotty college
kids calling themselves Libertarians today are really just looking
for a way to rebel?
I feel sorry for all of you and I hope you all find your ways in
life very soon.
When did Libertarianism equate to support of authority? I think you may be looking back at your youth through rose-colored glasses.
Back in the good old days, Libertarians didn't question authority when it came to big things like war!
Shem asks, "Mark B. maybe I'm really dense, but I have to ask,
if Iraq is so much better off than it was before the war, then why
do the Iraqis continue to support the insurgents?"
Available evidence shows that the overwhelming majority of Iraqis
do NOT support "the insurgents!"
Look at this public opinion poll taken in April 2004:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/iraq/2004-04-28-gallup-iraq-findings.htm
"Are all these Iraqis really so wedded to ideology that they're
willing to act against their own interests to, in effect, bite the
hand that is feeding them?"
The "insurgents" (aka, terrorists) are not "biting the hand that
feeds them." If the U.S. was working to install a Sunni religious
dictatorship, THAT would be "feeding them."
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