The Terrible Toll of Typhoon Haiyan Doesn't Excuse Bad Policy

Forecasts of cyclonic doom should be consumed with a heaped tablespoon of sea salt. And policies should be framed accordingly.

HaiyanNove foto da Firenze / Foter.com / CC BY-NC-SAThe terrible toll of Typhoon Haiyan—estimated to have killed more than 4,000 people—reminds us of the often awesome power of the weather. Some say the death and destruction in Asia are symptoms of climate change and that we can expect worse to come—unless we cut back on emissions of greenhouse gases. Coincidentally, negotiators from around the world are meeting in Warsaw, Poland this week and next to attempt to hammer out a deal that would do just that. But cuts in emissions of greenhouse gases may not be the best way to address the threat of hurricanes and typhoons, even if climate change is making them worse.

When it hit the Gulf of Leyte in the Philippines, Haiyan had sustained winds of 145 mph, with gusts of up to 170 mph, making it comparable in intensity to the Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900, which had winds of approximately 145 mph at landfall on the Texas Coast. The loss of life in Leyte, currently estimated at between 3,600 and 4,500, may ultimately be as great or greater than Galveston, where between 8,000 and 12,000—a quarter of the town’s population—are estimated to have died, making it the most deadly natural disaster in U.S. history.

Some activists claim that Haiyan is a symptom of climate change and that it should be a wake-up call to take action to cut emissions of greenhouse gases. Even theologians are getting in on the act, saying that the typhoon is the result of the sin of climate denial! But those may not be the most appropriate lessons. First, because it is far from clear that global warming is leading to an increase in the number or intensity of typhoons and hurricanes. Second, and more importantly, even if global warming does result in more extreme weather events, cutting emissions will likely do little to reduce the damage they inflict, while potentially costing a great deal, thereby reducing people’s ability to take preventative or ameliorative action.

In 1948, Erik Palmén showed that tropical cyclones (the scientific name for hurricanes and typhoons) only occur where sea surface temperatures reach at least 80F (26.5C). This empirical observation was later used by MIT Professor Kerry Emmanuel as a basis for claiming that a rise in global temperatures would result in more violent cyclones. But in a 2006 paper, published in the Journal Geophysical Research Letters, Philip Klotzbach showed that “accumulated cyclone energy”—a measure of the total amount of energy in all tropical cyclones from around the world—showed no trend over the twenty year period from 1986 to 2005, in spite of the rise in recorded temperatures during that period.

Of course, twenty years is a relatively short period. Unfortunately, good data on global cyclone numbers and intensity is not available for much longer periods. However, there exist reasonably reliable estimates of the number and intensity of hurricanes in the North Atlantic going back to 1851. As the figure below shows, over that period, there is no significant trend in either the total number of hurricanes making landfall in the US or the number of major (categories 3, 4 and 5) hurricanes making landfall.

Trends in North Atlantic Hurricanes

Moreover, as the figure below shows, there is essentially no correlation between the temperature of the sea surface in the Northern tropics (where the majority of hurricanes are initiated), as indicated by the green line, and either the number of hurricanes (blue) or the number of major hurricanes (red) making landfall in the U.S.

Sea temperatures and hurricanes

For longer-run estimates of tropical cylone numbers in other regions, data is generally less reliable. One of the best efforts comes in the form of a 2004 paper published in the Annals of the American Association of Geographers, which reports on an analysis undertaken by two researchers at the University of Louisiana, Kam-biu Liu and Caiming Shen and a colleague at the University of Hong Kong, Kin-sheun Louie, who used semi-official local gazettes, called Fang Zhi, from China’s Guangdong province, to reconstruct the Typhoon record going back 1,000 years (calibrating their data using reliable observations from 1884-1909). As the authors note: “Remarkably, the two periods of most frequent typhoon strikes in Guangdong (AD 1660–1680, 1850–1880) coincide with two of the coldest and driest periods in northern and central China during the Little Ice Age.” Of course, this analysis is specific to one location and the authors note that “Conceivably, the predominant storm tracks shifted to the south during these cold periods, resulting in fewer landfalls in Japan and the east-central Chinese coast but more typhoons hitting Guangdong.” But even if that is the case, it seems unlikely that the typhoons are any more closely correlated to sea surface temperature than are hurricanes.

In a 2010 paper published in Environmental Research Letters, Professors Ryan P. Crompton of MacQuarie University in Australia, and Roger A. Pielke, Jr. and K. John McAneney of the University of Colorado at Boulder, estimated the time that it would take for signals of human induced climate change “to emerge in a time series of normalized US tropical cyclone losses” and concluded that “[U]nder the projections examined here, the detection or attribution of an anthropogenic signal in tropical cyclone loss data is extremely unlikely to occur over periods of several decades (and even longer). This caution extends more generally to global weather-related natural disaster losses.”

In a subsequent blog post commenting on a recent paper by Kerry Emmanuel, Prof. Pielke reaffirms that “the time to detection of a signal of human-caused climate change, assuming that recent projections are correct, is a long, long time. Like, not in our lifetimes and certainly not now.” So, if anyone claims that there is a link between human-induced climate change and losses due to tropical cyclones—or any other weather-related natural disaster losses—they are either clairvoyant or they are lying.

Given the devastation wrought by tropical cyclones, it certainly makes sense to worry about them. But does that mean—as many activists argue—that global emissions of greenhouse gases should be cut? If it were possible to cut emissions significantly at no cost, then the answer would seem to be, obviously, yes. To that end, it certainly makes sense to remove unnecessary obstacles to lower-emission technologies, such as the production of natural gas through hydraulic fracturing—which has done more than anything to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions over the past decade. But even eliminating greenhouse gas emissions altogether would not stop the scourge of the tropical cyclone.

Fortunately, there are things that can be done to reduce the harm inflicted by cyclones. The response by the survivors of the Galveston Hurricane offers a salutary lesson. They built a massive sea wall, seventeen feet high and ten miles long (two feet higher than the storm surge that accompanied the 1900 hurricane). And they raised the foundations of over 2,000 of the town’s buildings, also by seventeen feet. As a result, when the town was battered again by a massive hurricane fifteen years’ later, the twelve foot storm surge caused considerable economic damage but only 53 people lost their lives.

Such responses help explain why, contrary to claims by some scientists activists, tropical cyclones have become less deadly over time. In the 25 years from 1960 and 1984, approximately 500,000 people died during tropical cyclones. In the next 25 years, from 1985 to 2009, that number fell by 20 per cent, to around 400,000. But over the same period, the world’s population rose by more than 30%, which means that the death rate fell from 0.51 to 0.27 per 100,000, a decline of nearly 50%. (These disaster numbers are from the World Health Organization’s Emergency Events database. The calculations, using population data from the Angus Maddison project, are in an excel spreadsheet available here.

Beyond building sea defenses and raising foundations, death rates have fallen because of the establishment of early warning systems and better infrastructure, which enable earlier and more rapid evacuation, as well as improvements in building technologies, which have meant that more people have had access the kinds of safety previously only available to the rich. After the 1900 Galveston hurricane, most of the buildings still standing were mansions in the town’s wealthy Strand District.

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  • ||

    To that end, it certainly makes sense to remove unnecessary obstacles to lower-emission technologies, such as the production of natural gas through hydraulic fracturing—which has done more than anything to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions over the past decade. But even eliminating greenhouse gas emissions altogether would not stop the scourge of the tropical cyclone.

    Hey, hey, hey! The Central Committee to End Climate Change will decide what policy the world should follow, not your silly little 'free market' and quaint notion of private enterprise.

  • Scarecrow Repair||

    Or science.

  • sheila124||

    my best friend's ex-wife makes $74 an hour on the laptop. She has been out of work for five months but last month her pay was $21054 just working on the laptop for a few hours. explanation..........................

    ⌘⌘⌘⌘⌘⌘⌘
    http://www.tec30.com
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  • Heroic Mulatto||

    Some say the death and destruction in Asia are symptoms of climate change and that we can expect worse to come—unless we cut back on emissions of greenhouse gases.

    I say that the death and destruction in Asia are symptoms of the wrath of the Chinese wind god, Fei Lian, the winged dragon with the head of a sparrow, the horns of a bull, body and legs of a stag and the tail of a snake, and that we can expect worse to come-unless we conduct the proper Taoist rites to appease the Celestial Archer, Houyi, the eternal foe of Fei Lian.

    My theory has as much evidence and even more historical precedence than AGW theory. Now if you need me, I'll be burning joss sticks down at the shrine.

  • Swiss Servator craves Rösti||

    Torch one for me!

  • sarcasmic||

    Oh yeah? Well, AGW has CONSENSUS! Do you have CONSENSUS? I didn't think so!

  • Heroic Mulatto||

    Well, AGW has CONSENSUS! Do you have CONSENSUS?

    Over 1 billion Chinese can't be wrong.

    Suck it Gaia theory.

  • Swiss Servator craves Rösti||

    *rises to applaud*

  • Rich||

    JOSS-STICKS, n. Small sticks burned by the Chinese in their pagan tomfoolery, in imitation of certain sacred rites of our holy religion.

    (By the late great Ambrose Bierce)

  • BigT||

    "... the death and destruction in Asia are symptoms of climate"

    FIFY

  • Death Rock and Skull||

    I look at that picture, and I see plenty of fuel for the whole winter. They'll figure shit out.

  • ||

    Not to mention the shit tons of stimulus and wealth that the storm created.

  • Austrian Anarchy||

    Fuel just for the winter? They are between the Tropic of Cancer and the Equator. They have enough fuel for decades in that picture.

  • Live Free or Diet||

    Last time I was in Manila the coldest night in those three months was around 75°F.

  • Austrian Anarchy||

    The kids over at the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society just discovered that there is not a thermometer on every square foot of the globe, they decided to fill in the missing bits for us. Conclusion? Global warming has been underestimated, by their estimation!

    Underestimated by a lot, actually by so much it is amazing that nobody has been able to detect the imaginary effects that they say are just around the corner.

  • ||

    You know, the cult of climate change used to be my favorite delusional retarded cult, but the Obamacare cult has completely surpassed them. I'm swimming in delusional retarded cults here.

  • From the Tundra||

    Don't forget the cult of "reasonable" gun control. Always good for some lols.

  • Live Free or Diet||

    To me, reasonable gun control involves a good sling so you don't drop it and mar the finish.

  • Rich||

    Would someone *kindly* remind me: When does a cult have enough adherents to be called a religion?

  • Austrian Anarchy||

    When they are teaching the cults dogma as science in college.

  • Austrian Anarchy||

    You really should not insult the retards like that.

  • Raston Bot||

    I expect this recent finding to be prominently featured in the IPCC that was completed a couple months ago.

  • Rich||

    Remember, you can't spell IPECAC without IPCC.

  • Heroic Mulatto||

  • On The Road To Mandalay||

    One would think that The Philippines could do a lot better in just about every area. After all, they were our colony for almost 50 years during the first half of the 20th Century, and our dependency for another 50 years after that to include our support of the corrupt and brutal Marcos Regime. What on earth is wrong with our "little brown brothers and sisters" when they had such a fine example to look up to for a century? Ha!!!!

  • JeremyR||

    On the one hand, they are as corrupt as Chicago. On the other hand, they have an Islamic insurgency.

    So if anything, I think the US is more likely to end up looking like the Philippines in the future

  • JidaKida||

    Makes a lot of sense dude

    www.Privacy-Web.tk

  • ReasonableS||

    The Philippines suffers from great wealth disparity. Rural Philippines which was most affected by Haiyan tend to have a great deal of poverty while urban Philippines like Manila have great prosperity.

    Morris talks about improving the transportation infrastructure, but seems to fail to take into account the effects of the earth quake that happened about a month ago plus the damage done by the rain and storm surge. A more modern and robust transportation system would withstand the storm better, but still would be devastated and prevent the movement of relief supplies.

    The intensity of the storm is not due to global warming. People tend to make that mistake after extreme storms just as others deny that global warming doesn't have an affect or isn't partially due to human activity. Cutting emissions will have a beneficial affect, but it will be long term and even if we reduce the average amount of C02 in the atmosphere which has reached a record level we won't see a difference for decades.

    As for the cost of cutting emissions it is minuscule compared to the cost of adjusting to higher sea levels and the increase in energy in global weather.

  • Julian||

    Yes, the Philippines has great disparities in wealth. But much more important than the disparities in wealth is the degree of rural poverty. If the rural poor in the Philippines were as wealthy as the rural poor in the U.S., the impact of Haiyan/Yolanda would likely have been far less extreme. The best way to achieve that is to remove barriers to economic development in the whole country -- i.e. increase economic freedoms.

    In re. transportation infrastructure: yes, the earthquake made the situation much worse, but in a sense that reinforces my point: better constructed roads are more likely to have withstood the earthquake, thereby enabling more people to evacuate.

    Regarding the relationship of the storm to global warming: my point was that we don't know -- and won't be able to know whether there is a relationship between global warming and cylone intensity for many decades. So, you can't say affirmatively that it wasn't (in part) due to global warming.

  • Julian||

    Regarding your assertion that cutting carbon dioxide emissions will have a "beneficial affect" (sic): such a statement presumes (a) human emissions of carbon dioxide are causing global warming; (b) such anthropogenic global warming is having a negative impact that is greater than any positive impact from the emissions of carbon dioxide; (c) the benefits of (presumably mandatory) reductions in carbon dioxide are greater than the costs. While (a) seems plausible based on the evidence, (b) is unclear, but (c) seems highly improbable based on what we know of the costs and benefits.

    Regarding your assertion that the costs of cutting emissions is minuscule: how do you know? Certainly attempting to cut emissions substantially (i.e. much beyond the no-regrets policies I adumbrate) in the near-term would impose enormous costs. Meanwhile, my point was about adjusting to the current climate, as much as it was adjusting/adapting to any future climate. i.e. it makes sense to take some actions today that will reduce the harm done by future cyclones, regardless of whether global warming is having an impact on the intensity of such cyclones.

  • sheila124||

    my best friend's ex-wife makes $74 an hour on the laptop. She has been out of work for five months but last month her pay was $21054 just working on the laptop for a few hours. explanation..........................

    ⌘⌘⌘⌘⌘⌘⌘
    http://www.tec30.com
    ⌘⌘⌘⌘⌘⌘⌘

  • Michael Ejercito||

    Can't we just set off a few hundred nukes to stop climate change, as Carl Sagan and four others proved thirty years aGO?

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