Steve Chapman | June 25, 2009
A tyrannical government is by nature in a constant state of war with its own people. There are periods of truce, but none of real peace. We in the democratic world generally think of government as an institution established by the people to serve their needs, even if it often fails. But the rulers in a place like Iran are more like conquerors presiding over a subject people.
Sometimes, like right now, that fact becomes inescapable, even to subjects who had imagined they were in the care of humane and benevolent guardians. Iranians who voted for Mir Hossein Mousavi, only to see their votes disregarded, now discover their country is ruled by an organized-crime gang that is prepared to use any means to maintain its grip.
That comparison may be unfair—to the Mafia, which at least doesn't compound brutality with deceit by claiming to administer the will of God or act in the best interests of its victims. The difference between a despot and a gangster is that a gangster is seldom hypocritical.
Hypocrisy, it has been said, is the tribute vice pays to virtue. Even the most vicious tyrants feel a compulsion to masquerade as servants of the people, by holding sham elections, writing meaningless constitutions, and setting up Potemkin courts. But when they begin to believe their own propaganda, they are often disabused of the fantasy.
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may have genuinely expected to win the June 12 presidential election. But when you allow the ruled an opportunity to pass judgment, they can surprise you. When there is a disparity between the desires of the rulers and the desires of the ruled, the former take precedence, even if it means they have to steal the election.
The official Guardian Council disparaged opposition claims of massive stuffing of ballot boxes. "Statistics provided by the candidates, who claim more than 100 percent of those eligible have cast their ballot in 80 to 170 cities, are not accurate; the incident has happened in only 50 cities," said a spokesman. Only 50 cities! That's a relief.
There were other neon signs advertising the fraud. A study published by Chatham House and the Institute of Iranian Studies at the University of St. Andrews said, "In a third of all provinces, the official results would require that Ahmadinejad took not only all former conservative voters, all former centrist voters, and all new voters, but also up to 44 percent of former reformist voters, despite a decade of conflict between these two groups." It's as plausible as John McCain carrying Cambridge, Manhattan, and Berkeley by a landslide.
Ahmadinejad is not the first autocrat to learn the perils of democracy. Last year, longtime Zimbabwean strongman Robert Mugabe came in second in the first round of balloting, though his goons so terrorized the opposition that he ended up in the curious position of being alone in the runoff.
Augusto Pinochet of Chile submitted himself to a national referendum in 1988, only to be surprised when his people voted to show him the door. Nicaragua's Daniel Ortega underwent the same shock therapy in 1990.
While those tyrants deferred to the election outcomes, Ahmadinejad refuses to be a hostage to the will of the people. But if the regime can pretend to have won the election, it can't pretend there are not throngs of citizens in the streets protesting the apparent fraud.
So it had to abandon the fiction that Iranians enjoy such fundamental rights as freedom of speech and freedom of assembly. If they really did, we would not see security forces attacking dissenters with tear gas, truncheons, water cannons, and live ammunition. Nor would we hear of up to 2,000 opposition activists being arrested, as estimated by the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran.
We would not find the government forbidding a memorial service for Neda Agha-Soltan, the woman fatally shot at a protest—or commanding mosques not to hold such ceremonies for anyone killed in demonstrations, as at least 17 people have been. We would not see the "supreme leader," Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, decree that "street demonstrations must be stopped" because the government cannot "allow itself to be intimidated by such initiatives."
Shame on the people of Iran for trying to "intimidate" their foes. That, as they should know better than anyone, is the prerogative of the oppressors, not the oppressed.
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After yesterday, I would assess the number of casualties to be
at least 200, if not 500. 17 is probably off by order of magnitude.
We will not learn the truth until the Tehran morgues are consulted
- which would only happen if the regime fell. Or if at least
Khamenei fell.
If the Butcher of Tehran wins the current confrontation, I expect
another 1000+ people to be executed by the special courts. Such
massacre has already taken place in 1988, so nothing new for the
regime.
Sadly, I know a self-styled libertarian who is so blinded by his
dislike of the USA that any murderous regime gets a soft spot in
his heart - from Cuba and North Korea to Iran - as long as it is
sufficiently anti-American. When the flood of incriminating videos
and photos begins to flow, his favorite reaction is to relativize
everything, like "we know nothing for sure", "it can be all
photoshopped", "the CIA has a lot of agents" and, finally "every
state would do that in such situation".
No, not every state. Marg bar Khamenei!
Mr. Chapman...are you writing from Iran? Do you speak and
understand the Farsi language? From where do you get your
information?
Thanks in advance.
From where do you get your information?
Carefully placed sensors, the scientific method and a supercomputer the size of Rhode Island, of course.
Finally. I was worried that it was taking this long for someone to suggest this was all the dastardly libertarians fault.
I didn't know speaking Farsi was a requirement for understanding the fact that religious nutjobs are running Iran.
As always, a well-written piece.
Marian Kechlibar - are you suggesting we bomb Iran? Or maybe some
meaningless embargo?
If it wasn't for those darn libertarians always telling people they have rights. Things like this wouldn't happen.
Asking Chappy if he speaks "Farsi" is a bit like me claiming to
speak "francais." The proper English term for the language spoken
in Iran is "Persian."
"Farsi" is the Persian word for Persian.
Jacob: I am a Czech. My country does not have the military
ability to bomb Iran even if it wanted to. And no, I do not think
that the USA should do it either. Most probably, the people killed
in such bombing would be precisely the ones who are now protesting
their butchers in the streets.
That said, I would be happy to know that there is maximum effort to
destabilize Khamenei's position internally. From spreading rumors
through bribing clerics to e-mailing Iranian generals some
interesting photos from the streets. Iranian army aren't Basijis
and they could pull down the regime in no time.
Hell, the USA has significant forces in two neighboring countries.
Let us hope that some subversion is done!
Let us hope that some subversion is done!
I wish i could share your belief that our leaders wouldn't fuck it
up so badly somehow that we'd end up at war with, like, Indonesia
and Kazakhstan.
Are the Iranian "reformers" really quite what wishful-thinking
western observers imagine them to be ? A hypothetical President
Mousavi might disappoint neocon/imperialist types by being an
Iranian nationalist/patriot rather than a western pawn. "Free"
Iranians might not do exactly what we want them to do.
In any case, this is an Iranian problem that will have to be solved
(or not) by the Iranians themselves. The rest of the world will
just have to deal.
What a bunch of nonsense. They're protesting in the streets
because their guy lost. What do you want the Iranian government to
do? What would the American government have done in McCain
supporters ran out into the streets and brought life in our major
cities to a standstill? Libertarians used to believe that nations
should mind their own business.
I love watching CNN talk about the "change" coming from "women" and
"young people." It's always 1968 for them, isn't it?
"Let us hope that some subversion is done!"
Like 1953? We all know how well that turned out.
Cabeza, of course that there is a reason to be skeptical about
the capabilities of the "services".
But I do not think that 1953 and today have many parallels. The
situation seems very different to me, and so possible outcomes
would be different as well.
"We in the democratic world generally think of government as an
institution established by the people to serve their needs"
Those who think so are very deluded. I will admit the United States
is not as tyranical as Iran, North Korea or Cuba but this does not
mean it is not tyranical.
Verily that every govm'nt uses coercion, and thus represents
tyranny to some extent.
However, the "extent" is crucial for your quality of life.
Same as "common cold" and "black smallpox" are both diseases, but
choose which one you want?
I do not think that 1953 and today have many
parallels
Americans have short memories, Marian.
"Same as "common cold" and "black smallpox" are both diseases,
but choose which one you want?"
As in the case of diseases these are false alternatives.
Marian, I agree with your idea - or at least partially. Like
minded people should help the Iranian people throw off the yoke of
oppression. But why the Americans? Why not invest your blood and
treasure? Why not go to Iran yourself and fight the good
fight?
Don't insist someone else make the effort - do it yourself. In the
Spanish civil war, hardcore pinkos rushed to join the fight against
the fascists. They lost but they made the effort.
False alternatives? Yes, to some degree, yes, but the reality is that this planet is cut into a few hundred states and you cannot realistically live on a territory which is not under control of any of them. So the list of alternatives is limited.
Coyote, I am a cryptographer by profession. I think I am helping as effectively as I can right now. Not on Reason, of course :-D
As the nation burdened by
the Holocaust, in Germany the process of sensitization by force has
gone the furthest. Every year 8,000 journalists and scholars are
put on trial for opinion crimes. There are more German political
prisoners today than there were in East Germany under the communist
government. The American media, even the conservative one, rarely
raises a peep. All mainstream thinkers either are ignorant of the
fact that Europeans in general and Germans in particular don't have
free speech or treat as settled the idea that the existence of
thought crimes is a reasonable price to pay to stomp out
"intolerance."
And no, it's not all for Holocaust denial.
The Netherlands have forcibly disbanded parties opposed to
immigration. When is Reason going to do a story on tyranny in
Europe? Why are you always picking on Russia and Iran and calling
the Wester countries "democratic?" Is tyranny ok if it's done in
the name of political correctness?
Marian,
You see what exists now but you do not see what could exist were
there no government at all. That is the true alternatives.
Governments of all sorts are the one alternative and lack of a
state is the other.
http://mises.org/books/anatomy_of_the_state.pdf
Richard, I utterly dislike European laws against freedom of
speech, and everyone who knows me will confirm this.
BTW it is Belgium, not the Netherlands, which has disbanded a party
because of "xenophobia". The party has re-established itself the
next day. In the Netherlands, Geert Wilders is posed to win the
next elections.
But this is a thread about Iran. You can always say that 256 other
states or organizations or mafias are worse and demand criticism of
them all. But such thread would be unreadable. And people cannot
follow everything at once. Just as they have particular "hobbies",
they also have particular "pet peeves".
It is up to larger organizations (Amnesty International etc.) to
follow the worldwide scope.
When is Reason going to do a story on tyranny in Europe? Why
are you always picking on Russia and Iran and calling the Wester
countries "democratic?"
Drink?
2 DHS: I must admit that I am skeptical WRT solutions that are theoretical. Once someone builds a working and stable example in the modern world, I will reconsider. This is, however, a field for the idealists to plow...
It is up to larger organizations (Amnesty International
etc.) to follow the worldwide scope.
These international organizations are just as selective in their
criticism as Reason is. According
to Freedom House, one of those wonderful NGOs fighting for
worldwide liberty, Germany and France are free countries. They even
do well on rankings of press freedom.
When Iran is locking up critics of transvestites and immigrants
instead of blasphemers then I guess they'll be ready to join "the
community of free nations."
Richard, OK, that is a fair criticism. If an organization has
enough sources to track almost everything on the planet, but
selectively reports on something only, let it be put to a verbal
doghouse.
But single humans cannot do that, even if they had no lives.
Hell, I wouldn't be commenting on this thread if I didn't have
strep throat right now.
"2 DHS: I must admit that I am skeptical WRT solutions that are
theoretical. Once someone builds a working and stable example in
the modern world, I will reconsider. This is, however, a field for
the idealists to plow..."
At the moment governments would prohibit me from setting up a
working and stable example in the modern world.Look what they did
to the Freeman.
I know a self-styled libertarian who is so blinded by his
dislike of the USA that any murderous regime gets a soft spot in
his heart - from Cuba and North Korea to Iran - as long as it is
sufficiently anti-American.
That would be a liberal, not a libertarian. Libertarians recognize
that there are many governments worse than our own.
-jcr
Before ya'll go attempting a serious debate with Hoste, you best go check out his Web site. It's just what you might suspect.
What a bunch of nonsense. They're protesting in the streets
because their guy lost.
Well, he lost a crooked election, and at this point I think the
protests are more about the brutal crackdown than the vote
counting.
And, unfortunately, I think the regime won this round. I expect to
see Obama clinking champagne glasses with Ahmadenijad by Labor Day,
while smiling and nodding through a rant about how Iran will never
give up its nuclear weapons program or theocratic dictatorship.
Hope and Change!
the only way the US can force any change in Iraq (and the entire middle east for that matter) is to stop importing oil from that region. We cry bloody murder every time one of these countries does something we find wrong, but there is nothing we can do if all we do is talk while we fill their coffers hand over fist.
"the only way the US can force any change in Iraq (and the
entire middle east for that matter) is to stop importing oil from
that region. We cry bloody murder every time one of these countries
does something we find wrong, but there is nothing we can do if all
we do is talk while we fill their coffers hand over fist."
I have to disagree with you there. That would turn Saudi Arabia
into Zimbabwe. It would not turn Iraq into Swizerland.
DHS, look no further than Yemen. No oil, and medieval reality
with one exception: lots of AK-47s.
Iranians could be an exception, though, because it is an old
cultural nation with some self-educational capability, not a tribal
society like many in the Missile East (term taken from Nizo's
blog).
If I could go back in time a few decades and change one thing (though not the only) I might change is I would have turned Mecca into something equivalent to Vatican City - an independent city-state.
Citizen Nothing-
What about his comments here? Free thinkers always must check their
guilt by association impulses.
jcr-
Yes, I agree that the average libertarian understands that you, me
and the average american has more relative freedom than the average
Zimbawbean, Saudi, Venezuelan, Palestinian or North Korean.
Having said that, too many of us let our love of nation state cloud
our ability to reason. As free individuals, shouldn't the
committment to liberty trump love of nation state?
"Mr. Chapman...are you writing from Iran? Do you speak and
understand the Farsi language? From where do you get your
information?"
Indeed Mr. Chapman where do you get your information Sir. You
obviously have no understanding of Iranian culture for if you did
you would know that screaming and crying are signs of joy. And
riots are the way in which Persians express their love of
government. You would have to understand Farsi to know that.
http://threatswatch.org/rapidrecon/2009/06/unimaginable-horror-in-tehran/
Start airdropping guns.
"Why are you always picking on Russia and Iran and calling the
Wester countries "democratic?"
Well, perhaps it's because we don't have a rash of journalists
"accidentally" dying in the US as in Russia
http://www.chris-floyd.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=874&Itemid=135
And as for the innocent Iranians, I think the reason they're being
picked on is quite obvious
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jun/22/iran-revolutionary-guards-protest-opposition
Wake me up with Keith Olbermann and Maher get treated like that
Asking Chappy if he speaks "Farsi" is a bit like me claiming to
speak "francais." The proper English term for the language spoken
in Iran is "Persian."
"Farsi" is the Persian word for Persian.
That's exactly right. It sounds ridiculous for an English speaker
to call the Persian language "Farsi." As my old Persian language
teacher use to say, "it doesn't make you look precise or
knowlegeable, it makes you look like a jerk."
libertymike-
"Yes, I agree that the average libertarian understands that you, me
and the average american has more relative freedom than the average
Palestinian."
The real question is who is the biggest denier of freedom for the
average Palestinian. Is it the Israelis, the majority of whom want
nothing to do with them and view E Jerusalem, the West Bank and
Gaza as no-go zones, are sick of sending their sons into the army,
and being stopped and searched every time they enter a building or
a train station? Is it the corrupt Fatah regime propped-up by the
West that stuffs their own pockets with aid money directed towards
enabling the Palestinian economy to function? Is it the
democratically elected Hamas regime in Gaza that enforces Sharia
and publicly executes people for listening to music in public? Or
is it the UNRWA, for whom perpetuating the refugee problem in
Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Egypt has become their own cash cow?
There is too much financial motivation for all governmental and
non-governmental entities involved for the problem to be
perpetuated than there is for the problem to be solved. Yet another
example of government itself being the problem.
and listen to Paul Craig
Roberts
We are now witnessing in Tehran US "attempts to foment a
popular revolution" in the guise of another CIA-orchestrated "color
revolution".
It is possible that splits among the mullahs themselves brought
about by their rival ambitions will aid and abet what the Telegraph
(May 27, 2007) reported were "CIA plans for a propaganda and
disinformation campaign intended to destabilize, and eventually
topple, the theocratic rule of the mullahs." It is certainly a fact
that the secularized youth of Tehran have played into the CIA's
hands...
A writer on pakalert.wordpress.com says that he was intrigued by
the sudden appearance of tens of thousands of Twitter allegations
that Ahmadinejad stole the Iranian election. He investigated, he
says, and he reports that each of the new highly active accounts
were created on Saturday, June 13th. "IranElection" is their most
popular keyword. He narrowed the spammers to the most persistent:
@StopAhmadi @IranRiggedElect @Change_For_Iran. He researched
further and found that on June 14 the Jerusalem Post already had an
article on the new Twitter.
He concludes that the new Twitter sites are propaganda
operations.
One wonders why the youth of the world, who do not protest stolen
elections elsewhere, are so obsessed with Iran.
I especially love the protestors with the signs "We Want Democracy"
in English. It reminds me of the war in Georgia. The whole world
knows that Americans are sentimental idiots and by putting a few
signs in front of a camera you might get them to bomb your
enemies.
http://threatswatch.org/rapidrecon/2009/06/unimaginable-horror-in-tehran/
Start airdropping guns.
I love how this woman screams "This is genocide, this is
Hitler!"
Her neocon handlers taught her well.
Prior to the elections, there was only one poll carried out by a
western news organization. It was jointly commissioned by the BBC
and ABC News, and conducted by the Center for Public Opinion (CPO)
of the New America Foundation. The CPO has a reputation of
conducting accurate polls, not only in Iran, but across the Muslim
world since 2005.
Their poll, conducted a few weeks before the elections, predicted
an 89 percent turnout rate. Further, it showed that Ahmadinejad had
a nationwide advantage of two to one over Mousavi.
According to official results, there were 46.2 million registered
voters in Iran. The turnout was massive, as predicted by the CPO.
Almost 39.2 million Iranians participated in the elections for a
turn out rate of 85 percent, in which about 38.8 million ballots
were deemed valid (about 400,000 ballots were left blank).
Officially, President Ahmadinejad received 24.5 million votes to
Mousavi's 13.2 million votes, or 62.6 per cent to 33.8 per cent of
the total votes, respectively. In fact, this result mirrored the
2005 elections when Ahmadinejad received 61.7 per cent to former
President Hashemi Rafsanjani's 35.9 per cent in the runoff
elections. Two other minor candidates, Mehdi Karroubi and Mohsen
Rezaee, received the rest of the votes in this election.
When Goldwater ran against Johnson, I was disappointed that an
unprincipled opportunist beat out a fine conservative statesman of
high character and honesty. Same thing here.
According to official results, there were 46.2 million
registered voters in Iran. The turnout was massive, as predicted by
the CPO. Almost 39.2 million Iranians participated in the elections
for a turn out rate of 85 percent, in which about 38.8 million
ballots were deemed valid (about 400,000 ballots were left blank).
Officially, President Ahmadinejad received 24.5 million votes to
Mousavi's 13.2 million votes, or 62.6 per cent to 33.8 per cent of
the total votes, respectively. In fact, this result mirrored the
2005 elections when Ahmadinejad received 61.7 per cent to former
President Hashemi Rafsanjani's 35.9 per cent in the runoff
elections. Two other minor candidates, Mehdi Karroubi and Mohsen
Rezaee, received the rest of the votes in this election.
...and what was the turnout in 2005? I don't know anything about
the reliability of the election data coming out of Iran, but a fair
number of Iranians sure seem to think they were shafted and are
protesting it. I don't think the US should be telling Iranian
protesters to stop because WE think their elections are fair. We
have alot less knowledge than they do. I'm just going to sit back
and see how this power struggle plays out and listen to what comes
out before I make any decisions.
Another thing is, if Amedhinajad was so confident in his win, why
would the regime be arresting all these protesters? A regime in
legitimate control doesn't go out of its way to make the opposition
look like its on to something. They'd simply carry on like the
Mexican government did when the socialists tried to protest the
election.
Dear Lost:
There is a difference between protesting a system that is overseen
by theocratic despots, and proving actual election fraud.
There may well have been election fraud, but the most accurate and
objective polls suggest otherwise. Here is an interesting take on
Mousavi:http://www.rense.com/general86/ignor.htm
That he was in charge and complicit in the Beirut massacre of 241
U.S. servicemen.
I can't vouch for either the election results or Mr. Mousavis
involvement in the Beirut terrorism. I only observe that we so
often believe what we want to believe.
I have nothing to say regarding which turd smells more like a rose (Amedinejad or Mousavi), just that for once, I think Obama has taken the right course, condemning the actions of the government, but keeping his opinion of the fairness of the election to himself. Pre-election polls by the BBC outstanding (of which you have not linked to any data so far), its the Iranians country and its their choice whether to accept or reject the result. Its the government's job to legitimize itself in the eyes of the people and forward their interests, else it will eventually fail.
I'm going to let you geniuses in on an inconvenient fact; for
every fashionably dressed, West-loving protester, there are about
5-10 shabbily-dressed, Ahmedinejad-loving hicks, the so called
silent majority that the Western media has declined to interview.
It's like America, with all the anti-Bush protesting, only much
more violent.
http://exiledonline.com/war-nerd-irans-cedar-show-aka-dont-get-excited-the-protestors-are-just-letting-off-some-steam/
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