Marshall Plan Mania

George Marshall is dead, but his ghost just won't leave.Speaking at the Virginia Military Institute yesterday, Bush Minor–a politician previously critical of "nation-building" interventions–invoked the late general's effort to rejuvenate Europe after World War II. "The Marshall Plan, rebuilding Europe and lifting up former enemies, showed that America is not content with military victory alone," the president said. "By helping to build an Afghanistan that is free from this evil and is a better place in which to live, we are working in the best of traditions of George Marshall."

It would have been improper for Bush to avoid the topic of the general–he was on campus, after all, to hand out the George C. Marshall ROTC Award. His comments were somewhat more specific than was required by the occasion, though, and at least one newspaper did not shy from headlining its report on the speech this way: "Bush envisions a Marshall Plan for Afghanistan."

Politicians and pundits have long been "envisioning" Marshall Plans for everything in the world–usually the inner cities, but also Africa, the Balkans, teachers, the environment, even broadband. The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace is especially fond of Marshall Plans, having proposed them for the Arab world and for anyone suffering from the effects of another popular cliché, the digital divide. If we can put a man on the moon, can't we think of a better phrase to drop whenever someone wants to spend some money?

As for the actual Marshall Plan, its effects are somewhat overstated. The economist Tyler Cowen has noted that the European countries that received the most Marshall Plan aid after World War II suffered the slowest growth over the next eight years, while those who got the least aid grew the fastest. (Cowen's article is summarized here.) At best, the plan tided people over with humanitarian aid before their pre-war institutions–the kind that are absent in Afghanistan–could reassert themselves. At worst, it was little more than a Cold War propaganda ploy.

"The demands of human dignity…have a power and momentum of their own, defying all pessimism," President Bush said yesterday. Aid programs, too, have a certain power and momentum. I won't comment on the pessimism.