Here we go again.
"VA, DoD find Lou Gehrig Risk in Gulf War Service," boomed the Copley News Service. "U.S. Reports Disease Link to Gulf War," proclaimed the New York Times. It's "A Measure of Vindication for Ailing Gulf Vets," declared the Raleigh News and Observer. All the major TV news broadcasts ran with the story about the new study, providing an identical spin.
This game has continued for eight years now, and as always the pawns are America's vets. Somebody purportedly finds a link between Gulf service and some health problem. But the studies are either unreproducible or outright refuted. This one is different in only one way, but it's a big one.
The Defense Department, exhausted by years of defending itself against charges of cover-ups and callousness, finally -- indeed eagerly -- capitulated. It announced it would immediately start paying benefits to any Gulf War vet with the muscle-wasting and ultimately fatal disease amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). Such payments are labeled "presumptive," because ALS can strike anyone and no vet will ever be able to prove that, but for his service, he wouldn't have gotten it.
The dam is now cracked and will probably soon begin to crumble. We will begin making presumptive payments for more and more illnesses among Gulf vets. And that's a shame for several reasons.
First, the study (paid for by Defense Department and the VA) is worthless. Second, even if the study were valid, it would not -- indeed could not -- establish the existence of a Gulf War Syndrome, yet that's how it's being used. Seven hundred thousand Gulf vets and their spouses will now live in permanent fear of contracting something that doesn't exist.
Here's what's wrong with both the study and the uncritical response to it.
The secretary of veterans affairs, Anthony Principi, has called the study "preliminary," and with good reason. It is not finished, it has not been published, it has not been reviewed by other scientists, and in the wake of the announcement, it still wasn't available for outside critique.
Conversely, there have been a plethora of previous studies making every possible health comparison between Gulf vets and non-Gulf vets. They looked at specific diseases and complaints, all diseases combined, hospitalizations, deaths, diseases in offspring, and miscarriages. Many were published in peer-reviewed medical journals, such as The New England Journal of Medicine and the American Journal of Epidemiology. None found any links between Gulf service and illness.
Even Principi admitted that two prior studies had specifically looked for an ALS link and found none. A major British study also looked for an ALS link and it found none. Why should an aberrational study become the defining one?
Yet this study actually wasn't aberrational: It too found no link between ALS and Gulf service. Here's what it did find.
Of the nation's 700,000 Gulf vets, 40 were identified with ALS. Among 1.8 million vets who didn't deploy to the Gulf, 67 cases were identified. Adjusting for age and other variables to which we are not privy, that comes out to a risk of contracting ALS of 6.7 per million among Gulf vets, and 3.5 million among non-deployed vets. That's the doubling that Principi spoke of and the media parroted.
But a more accurate way to express the numbers is that the expected rate of cases among Gulf vets, according to the researchers, was 33 and instead there were 40. That's a mere 21% elevation. Suddenly the differences between the groups don't look very different. It looks like chance variation could easily affect the outcome.
This is all the more so when you look at the breakdown between the services.
Curiously, the highest rate of ALS was among Air Force Gulf vets, who had 2.7 times that of their non-deployed counterparts. Army soldiers had twice the risk, and Navy and Marine Corps veterans did not show rates of disease that were statistically higher than those not deployed. Yet Air Force servicemen were least likely to be in forward areas, where all the alleged toxins were. (You might think the Navy had few personnel in forward positions, but sizeable numbers of Navy combat engineers were in the area.)