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Which is Worse—Bird Flu or the Government's Reaction to Bird Flu?
Lest we forget, the H5N1 bird flu virus is still lurking out in the world. One day it may hit the right combination of genetic changes to transform itself into a pandemic disease in humans. Humans may be especially vulnerable because we have never developed immunity to the hemagglutinin 5 gene (H5). So what to do?
Making a new vaccine targeted at controlling the H5N1 virus would be really helpful. One problem--who's going to put up the money to do it in advance? Such a vaccine is commercially viable only when the disease has already broken out and, unlike seasonal flu vaccines, there are no recurring revenues.
One could imagine a company deciding to take the risk of producing a stockpile of the vaccine in advance and waiting to sell it at a tidy markup if there's an outbreak. However, given the likelihood of a panicky government response, e.g., seizing the vaccine or imposing price controls, most companies would conclude that a stockpile strategy is too risky.
Perhaps the biotech company Novavax has hit upon a good strategy-devise a new way to make vaccines quickly in the event of outbreak. Right now seasonal flu vaccines are produced using a decades-old technology of growing them up in chicken eggs, a process that takes months. As the Washington Post reports:
Novavax said yesterday that its bird flu vaccine elicited a robust immune response in humans, moving the biotech a step closer to licensing its pandemic vaccine production system.
In the trial, 160 patients received two vaccine injections, of 15 to 90 micrograms, one month apart. Of the patients who received the highest dosage, 94 percent produced antibodies to neutralize H5N1, an Indonesian strain of bird flu that emerged in 2005 and has been linked to 110 deaths....
Novavax has partnered with GE Healthcare to reach the rest of the world by providing other countries a system to quickly mass-produce vaccines.
"If you truly believe a pandemic outbreak is likely, there is reason to believe foreign governments and the U.S. will clamp down and control the supply," [said Ken Trbovich, an analyst with RBC Capital Markets.] He added, "Other places in the world may have a lot of money, but no amount of money will get you vaccines in the case of a pandemic."
How to get around this government-risk?
Novavax has partnered with GE Healthcare to reach the rest of the world by providing other countries a system to quickly mass-produce vaccines....
GE is developing the production equipment, which is cheap to set up and run in case of a pandemic...
"We see no reason to invest additional money of our own into the pandemic vaccine when we can wait for a foreign government that needs this vaccine to put money in," Singhvi said.
If there is an outbreak, then desperate governments will buy and set up Novavax' and GE Healthcare's new speedy vaccine production system.
Whole Post article here
Why I think there may never be another pandemic again here.
Fluffy|8.27.08 @ 12:35PM|#
However, given the likelihood of a panicky government
response, e.g., seizing the vaccine or imposing price controls,
most companies would conclude that a stockpile strategy is too
risky.
Actually, this insight explains well why the presence of "windfall
profit taxes" and laws against "disaster profiteering" harm the
public and the economy.
We have assiduously created a situation where it's not really
feasible to have a business plan where you produce or maintain a
supply of some resource that is currently cheap, in order to
realize your profit when the price spikes, whether from increased
demand or some system shock.
Of course, having discouraged planning for the future, the haters
of capitalism are then annoyed when capitalists focus on the short
term instead. And having discouraged stockpiling for emergencies,
they're annoyed when goods and services aren't available during
emergencies. But that's pretty much the same old same old.
|8.27.08 @ 12:37PM|#
Clearly this is a win for supporters of the government's reaction. Without them, we clearly wouldn't have the development of faster ways to farm vaccines.
RP|8.27.08 @ 12:37PM|#
Threadjack - what's with no new Daily Brickbats? Those Brickbats are great entertainment, I look for them every day
|8.27.08 @ 1:03PM|#
There's only one way to stop a pandemic: To quote the great
Dustin Hoffman from Outbreak
WE HAVE TO GET THAT MONKEY!
Elemenope|8.27.08 @ 1:13PM|#
Threadjack - what's with no new Daily Brickbats? Those
Brickbats are great entertainment, I look for them every
day
I think the staff is busy covering that which everyone (including
them) has repeatedly belabored is "not news".
Conventions are like giant, puffed-up brickbats, wrapped in a
bow.
Travis|8.27.08 @ 1:14PM|#
The best way to stop a pandemic is kill everyone. If everyone is dead then they can't get sick.
Naga Sadow|8.27.08 @ 1:18PM|#
JW,
I see your "WE HAVE TO GET THAT MONKEY!" and raise you:
Phone Guy: This could mean my stripes, sir.
Col. Sam Daniels: It'll mean your ass if you don't get your finger
on the phone. Finger it!
|8.27.08 @ 1:21PM|#
"No, no. No, see this is a really shit idea. You know why? Because it's really obviously a shit idea."
Naga Sadow|8.27.08 @ 1:22PM|#
This article finally gives me a chance to quote "Cyborg"!
Sweet!
Fender Tremolo: First there was the collapse of civilization:
anarchy, genocide, starvation. Then when it seemed things couldn't
get any worse, we got the plague. The Living Death, quickly closing
its fist over the entire planet. Then we heard the rumors: that the
last scientists were working on a cure that would end the plague
and restore the world. Restore it? Why? I like the death! I like
the misery! I LIKE THIS WORLD!
Naga Sadow|8.27.08 @ 1:25PM|#
I got a better one Epi, and surprisingly relevant to this
article.
Colonel Sam Daniels: We are fugitives of the law. Idiocy is our
only option.
|8.27.08 @ 1:26PM|#
The easiest way to beat bird flu is to convince Chinese people
to stop fucking birds.
Or at least use a condom if they can't help themselves.
Salvius|8.27.08 @ 1:36PM|#
"We see no reason to invest additional money of our own into the pandemic vaccine when we can wait for a foreign government that needs this vaccine to put money in," Singhvi said.
Look at this evil corporation, being all corporation-y! Just saying
flat out that their plan is to squeeze money out of desperate
governments whose people are dying in a plague!
We need to pass a law requiring these greedy, amoral
pharmaceutical companies to stockpile vaccines for every potential
pandemic disease, known or unknown, on their own dime, instead of
allowing them to get fat off the suffering of sick people.
|8.27.08 @ 1:46PM|#
"No, no. No, see this is a really shit idea. You know why?
Because it's really obviously a shit idea."
I now have my new email sig.
|8.27.08 @ 1:47PM|#
Reinmoose,
I would argue that a self-interested government would have no other
choice but to limit the export of vaccine in a true pandemic. In
the case of a 1918-like deathathon, standing by their principles of
private property would be a quick way to get overthrown (and
shortly thereafter, the vaccines get seized anyway.) Of course,
most governments would start restricting exports at death 1 because
they're power-hungry hyper-douches. But that doesn't mean that once
the pandemic really sets in that they're not being rational.
The correct method of avoiding such a lose-lose situation is to
have a stockpile contract in place, pre-pandemic, to allow the
production of vaccine in advance. Then the companies are bound by
law to surrender (sell at a prearranged profit) their goods to the
country in an emergency.
|8.27.08 @ 2:06PM|#
A vaccine for the pandemic strain can't be produced until a
pandemic strain emerges - until a pandemic begins.
They can make vaccine now based on the strains of H5N1 in 2004 or
2007, but that does not mean that the vaccine will work for the
mutated virus that causes a pandemic.
If we are still relying on chicken egg technology, it will take 6
to 9 months after a pandemic begins to have the first batches of
vaccine.
|8.27.08 @ 2:22PM|#
They can make vaccine now based on the strains of H5N1 in
2004 or 2007, but that does not mean that the vaccine will work for
the mutated virus that causes a pandemic.
Mostly agreed. But remember that any tangentially-related vaccine
will produce an immune response. Will the incorrect strain produce
as strong of a (protective against pandemic strain) response as the
pandemic strain? No. But it is still better than nothing while the
pandemic strain is being worked up. Especially with recent
improvements in adjuvent technology.
Neu Mejican|8.27.08 @ 2:31PM|#
Why I think there may never be another pandemic
again
You mean after we get done with the one we are currently in the
midst of?
|8.27.08 @ 3:10PM|#
If there is an outbreak, then desperate governments will buy
and set up Novavax' and GE Healthcare's new speedy vaccine
production system.
Genius. Nothing to seize. If the government won't pay cash, they
get nothing. Once they pony up, they get the equipment and know-how
to use it.
Still, I'd build in a function that turns it off unless a code is
entered periodically from Novavax HQ. You can't be too careful when
you're dealing with the State.
Anti-Globalism|8.27.08 @ 3:17PM|#
I doubt there's gonna be a pandemic.
Won't the free market produce a vaccine magically?
LOL
|8.27.08 @ 3:19PM|#
Avian Bird flu? Hell, I'm still locked in my bomb shelter
waiting for the
West Nile Virus* epidemic to end. Don't you understand? It's
spread by mosquitos! We can't defend ourselves againt disease
carrying skeeters!
* Go ahead, click on it. I have some solid irrefutable anecdotal
evidence that West Nile will kill us all.
Elemenope|8.27.08 @ 3:35PM|#
Usually I think that Mr. Anti-Globalism is a goofy pink poof, but I find myself agreeing with him on the narrow point (minus the LOL) that it is kinda silly to believe that because we have harnessed the power of free markets, there will therefore never be a pandemic ever again.
|8.27.08 @ 3:37PM|#
Anti-Globalism,
May you die of something completely cureable in the parking lot of
a closed Walgreens.
|8.27.08 @ 3:42PM|#
Elemenope,
The problem is, not having another pandemic =/= producing the
vaccine by magic. If there are no more pandemics, then why would a
free market produce a vaccine for them? You were right on the goofy
pink poof track.
Of course there will be more pandemics. Two-thirds of the world
lives in squalor, but still gets visited by travelers. Poverty
tourism guarantees this will happen.
New World Dan|8.27.08 @ 3:48PM|#
The best way to stop a pandemic is kill everyone. If
everyone is dead then they can't get sick.
Apparently I'm not the only guy here who reads 8-bit Theater.
|8.27.08 @ 3:54PM|#
Actually the best "make money off the pandemic fear" I've seen yet is the program Roche (Tamiflu) is running: businesses can register and pay an annual fee to be at the head of the line to buy Tamiflu during a pandemic. Note - they aren't paying for a stockpile (buying the drug) they are paying to be on a list to buy the drug.
|8.27.08 @ 4:42PM|#
Mostly agreed. But remember that any tangentially-related
vaccine will produce an immune response. Will the incorrect strain
produce as strong of a (protective against pandemic strain)
response as the pandemic strain? No. But it is still better than
nothing while the pandemic strain is being worked up. Especially
with recent improvements in adjuvent technology.
Hmmm?
We have seasonal flu vaccine that is ineffective when strains of
flu drift away from the vax.
Do you believe that during these years we are still seeing some
benefit from seasonal flu vax?
I'd like to be convinced that the panflu vax that is being produced
now will be of some benefit during a pandemic because I'm not as
optimistic as other posters about the chances of avoiding of a
pandemic. Indonesia is hot.
|8.27.08 @ 5:04PM|#
Being that: Most human cases of H5N1 virus infection are
thought to have occurred as a result of direct contact with sick or
dead infected poultry (from the CDC(and P!) website), I'm not
too entirely concerned about contracting it. However, I completely
understand SugarFree's comment about squalor/tourism.
I am honestly more concerned about West Nile (anything greater than
zero is "more"). Further, I truly wonder why I can Advantix my
Labrador which repels fleas, ticks and mosquitos for a month, while
I must bathe in DEET everytime I go outside with her. No Human
Advantix in the pipeline? Come on scientists, go do some
science!
"...put another round in her! She's a twitcher!"
Warty|8.27.08 @ 5:05PM|#
I never like to pass up a perfect opportunity to post a
ridiculous death metal song, so everyone please enjoy Kalmah
The groan of wind
A silent killing machine
There´s no place we can breathe
Deep down in our lungs symptom breeds
H5N1 Lethal time bomb
H5N1 Lethal time bomb
lunchstealer|8.27.08 @ 5:07PM|#
Speaking of H5N1 and surrounding hysteria, I found the ads for this SciFi Original
Movie hysterical.
The Most Laughable Night on Television.®
Warty|8.27.08 @ 5:10PM|#
Dammit, I thought for sure I'd post the most ridiculous thing in this thread. Mutant killer birds carrying a deadly virus attack a group of hikers on a wilderness trek? Fuck, man. Just...fuck.
|8.27.08 @ 5:34PM|#
Being that: Most human cases of H5N1 virus infection are thought
to have occurred as a result of direct contact with sick or dead
infected poultry (from the CDC(and P!) website), I'm not too
entirely concerned about contracting it. However, I completely
understand SugarFree's comment about squalor/tourism.
If the only way to become infected was by contact with infected
birds, I don't think many people would be worried.
The concern is human to human transmission. It is happening on a
limited basis now, and the concern is that the virus will continue
mutating and that human to human transmission will become sustained
so that the virus is transmitted like seasonal flu. That would
cause a pandemic.
The 1918 pandemic killed approx 50 million people, and the fatality
rate of this virus is much higher.
Warty|8.27.08 @ 5:36PM|#
The squalor point is interesting, since that's pretty much what started the 1918 pandemic. World leaders: please delay any plans for a trench war in southeast Asia. Thank you.
|8.27.08 @ 5:37PM|#
What ever happened to swine flu?
Mom was a virologist, so she gave me the vaccine for swine flu way
back, and my arm hurt like hell for at least a week. I could barely
use it. (For normal things, not what you're thinking.)
|8.27.08 @ 5:38PM|#
Speaking of H5N1 and surrounding hysteria, I found the ads for
this SciFi Original Movie hysterical.
The Most Laughable Night on Television.®
***
The movie was worse than the ads. It seems to have been
misclassified as horror - should have been comedy.
lunchstealer|8.27.08 @ 7:04PM|#
Warty. Your post may have been marginally less ridiculous, but it was totally metal.
|8.28.08 @ 5:29AM|#
Maybe Congress should enact a tariff against Chinese bird shit to encourage an increase in H5N1-free American bird shit.
|8.28.08 @ 10:06AM|#
"""Poverty tourism guarantees this will happen."""
What do you mean by poverty tourism. Poor people coming here? or
Americans touring the Ghettos of the world?
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