Kerry Howley | July 23, 2008
What's the largest form of wage discrimination in the world today? To answer that question, Lant Pritchett, Michael Clemens, and Claudia Montenegro have compiled this handy chart for you:
Wage gaps between observably identical Nigerian workers in the United States and Nigerian workers in Nigeria (same gender, education, work experience, etc) are... considerable. They swamp the wage gaps between men and women in the US. They swamp the gaps between whites and blacks in the US. Actually, they swamp the wage gaps between whites and blacks in the United States in 1855. For several countries, the effect of border restrictions on the wages of workers of equal productivity "is greater than any form of wage discrimination (gender, race, or ethnicity) that has ever been measured." The labor protectionism that keeps poor workers out of rich countries upholds one of the largest remaining price distortions in any global market.
Who cares? You weren't planning on seeking employment in Nigeria anyway. The upshot is that even a very limited loosening of borders could do enormous, immediate good. No other poverty alleviation policy—microcredit, education, public health interventions, anti-sweatshop activism—compares with a work visa, even a temporary one. The Pritchettarians do the math:
The paper is here, and my interview with Lant Pritchett is here. Another classic Pritchett chart can be viewed here.
Via Chris Blattman.
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Thank you, Kerry. This is a great article and it's exactly the
kind I would like to see more of in Reason. I've been waiting for
one of these to come along before subscribing and therefore I just
subscribed.
Also, as a pre-buttal to the inevitable lonewackoff post: fuck
you.
Before you go on a great free trade rant, perhaps we should
notice the fully black bars represent "observably and
unobservably identical workers."
So we really have no idea what comparison formed the US/Nigeria
ratio. What mixture of workers would determine what kind of
ratio.
Not only is it not the responsibility of the U.S. to alleviate poverty in the rest of the world, but to do so by allowing the rest of the world to come here is downright perverse.
I'll have to read more later, but at first glance this puts up a
big honking red flag for problematic data sets:
"1997 Hawaii/Guam v Micronesia 1.25 wage ratio between observably
identical workers in spatially integrated labor markets."
1997 is a problematic year due the asian flu wrecking the Pacific
tourist economy (which was already weak) that Hawaii and Guam
depended on (and still do). Micronesia had not really deveolopped
one yet. (I'm assuming they mean FSM, but CNMI and Palau also
apply).
And Guam and Hawaii should not be lumped together as 'equivalent'
even today, much less than 1997. Hawaii has 8 times the population
and about double the GDP per capita. Additionally, the military
contrbution to the Guam GDP (which is sizable today and growing)
was at a minimum in '97. Hawaii was a net winner from the BRAC at
that time.
Ok, persuing the paper, they say they used the FSM as almost a
control group, (a source country w/ no immigration restriction
& official language english) and admit the data is kinda
weak.
I see two issues with how they got that 1.25 number, which push in
opposite directions. In general, there is about a doubling of
income to FSM immigrants, but with some statisical handwaving, they
say the real effect is only 1.25.
The factor that would inflate this number is they seem to disregard
remittances, and assume in their PPP calcs that all consumption of
the wage increase is where the laborer currently resides.
The factor that would lower it is they use an adjustment to reflect
the PPP difference between FSM and the US *as a whole*, vice the
difference between FSM and Hawaii and Guam, where most of the
Micronesian immigrants reside (a non-trivial difference).
Another howler from Howley:
"Even a very limited loosening of borders could do enormous,
immediate good."
An increase in welfare, social spending and crime due to more 3rd
world immigration would do enormous good to our country?
Why do Reason and it's acolytes even bother to pretend they have anything to do with libertarianism? Absent the snark, Reason would be The New Republic with bigger print, smaller words, more pictures and a leather jacket.
Before you go on a great free trade rant, perhaps we should
notice the fully black bars represent "observably and unobservably
identical workers."
So we really have no idea what comparison formed the US/Nigeria
ratio. What mixture of workers would determine what kind of
ratio.
You don't have to go too far into the introduction of the paper to
realize what "observably and unobservably identical" means.
In other words, wage ratios for observably-equivalent workers-Ro-are not the same as wage ratios for workers of equal intrinsic productivity who would be willing to move from one country to another; we call this latter ratio Re.
These independent calculations yield the remarkably consistent result that selection of migrants on unobservable wage determinants results in an observed US-to-foreign wage ratio for observably equivalent workers (Ro) of around 1.25 times the true ratio for equal-productivity workers on average across countries, and that the combined effect of
selection and natural barriers produces observed ratios about 1.5 times the true ratio for equal-productivity workers willing and able to move (Re).
That is, the black bars include a correction that tries to capture
less tangible differences between those who migrate versus those
who stay. The actually observable differences are 50%
higher than the black bars show.
An increase in welfare, social spending and crime due to more 3rd world immigration would do enormous good to our country?
No but the increase in people working would. You know, the
that thing people do to put food on the table?
Also, I find it amusing that you got a bunch of guys who are
demanding that I not be allowed to do business with Nigerians and
Mexicans, and these guys are claiming to be "libertarian".
Next you'll be telling me that the government owning the means of
production is "capitalism"
Just to play Devil's Advocate, why wouldn't dropping the restrictions on migration create a corresponding drop in wages as employers suddenly had two or three or a half-dozen just as qualified people to do the jobs? Does not scarcity come into play?
"The cumulative lifetime effect of the anti-sweatshop movement on an Indonesian worker's earnings could be earned if that person had the chance to work in the US once for a period of about 30 weeks."
Isn't this because our government outlaws sweatshops?
why wouldn't dropping the restrictions on migration create a corresponding drop in wages as employers suddenly had two or three or a half-dozen just as qualified people to do the jobs?
In the short term, yes. However, in a free market, wagges drift
toward the marginal productivity of laborers. Thus, if you produce
$10.00 per hour, your pay will drift toward $9.00.
The reason for this is that the demand for labor is not fixed. The
new workers are also consumers. They also have entrepeneurs amongst
them who start new businesses. Their presence expands the
economy.
"An increase in welfare, social spending and crime due to more
3rd world immigration would do enormous good to our country?"
Make immigrants ineligible for welfare.
"Just to play Devil's Advocate, why wouldn't dropping the
restrictions on migration create a corresponding drop in wages as
employers suddenly had two or three or a half-dozen just as
qualified people to do the jobs? Does not scarcity come into
play?"
That is probably the short term effect, but once they make money,
the aggregate deman curve shifts and we have to eomploy more
people.
When the Nigerian government starts worrying about my wages, I will start worrying about Nigerian wages. Reason absolutely embraces a perverse transnationalism whereby the US government is supposed to sacrifice the well being of its own people for the greater good of the world. Fuck that. Nigerians can fix their own country. Worse yet, why enable Nigerians to have a bad government? All allowing workers to come here does is support their bad policies and give people less of a reason to demand change.
One other thing. The wages that one third world worker can send home figure assumes constant demand for workers. Yes, under the current system one worker could send home that much. But if you allowed free movement of labor, the wages would drop as the supply increases. People move to the US right up until the point that the wages and standard of living between the two countries equalizes. As people leave the the third world, real wages rise because of fewer workers and real wages will fall here because of more workers. Eventually the two will be close to equal.
I think open borders is my line in the sand. Sorry, you folks
agin' 'em just aren't libertarians in any real sense of the word.
Who the fuck are you to tell me who I can hire and who I can invite
onto my property?
Sorry, but on the way to work I heard an NPR piece on the misuse of
identity theft laws to jail (Fucking jail!) Guatamalan workers in
Iowa. Makes me want to go all John Brown on LoneWacko's ass.
Eventually the two will be close to equal.
That's right John. And that's why wages kept falling in the U.S>
throughout the 19th century.
Oh wait! They didn't!
Again, in a free market, wages tend to move toward a value
close to the marginal productivity of the laborer. That's
why in colonial Pennsylvania wages were over 3X what a worker could
earn in England right up to the French Indian war (when the
Pennsylvania government started actually intervening in the
economy).
Also, as a pre-buttal to the inevitable lonewackoff post:
fuck you.
This is an eminently sensible position, and one which I
wholeheartedly endorse.
"Again, in a free market, wages tend to move toward a value
close to the marginal productivity of the laborer"
It is more complex than that. First, regardless of how productive
you are, there has to be a demand for what you are doing. I could
be a wonderfully productive blacksmith but my pay is not going to
match up to what it did say 100 years ago.
Immigration tends to fuck the low end of the wage scale. Wages for
low education workers have been falling for years and large scale
immigration plays no small part in that. We only need so many low
skilled workers. The really that really get screwed on the deal are
teenagers and people with bad pasts. Why would anyone hire someone
just out of jail and take the risk of them doing something criminal
or hire a teenager with no work history when you could hire someone
from the third world with no criminal history and is older and more
mature than the teenager? You wouldn't. Open borders totally fucks
a certain segment of our society. Most people who write and post on
Reason have neve wanted for anything so they don't give a shit
because it doesn't effect them. They just want someone to come and
cut their lawn cheap and the pleasure of feeling good about helping
the less fortunate. Well, I am not down with that elitist
horseshit.
Free trade is win/win. The more trade with more people and fewest restrictions produces the greatest wealth. Indeed trade is tightly correlated to wealth. Trade in labor is half the equation. By restricting the ability for workers to optimize their compensation, we're tying one hand behind our economic back.
why wouldn't dropping the restrictions on migration create a corresponding drop in wages
You say that like it's a bad thing. In a competitive environment
every drop in the cost of inputs is going to create a corresponding
drop in the cost of outputs. Every wage earner is also a
consumer.
Realistically, open immigration would have extremely uneven effects
across various industries, job types, products and services. Some
are already effectively open to worldwide competition (think of
Indian call centers), others are not significantly affected by the
price of labor (maybe wholesale aluminum) and yet others might not
be much affected because the skills needed don't exist elsewhere or
there are other effective restrictions to entry in the field (maybe
lawyers).
Wholesale immigration restrictions are a form of protectionism and
like all forms of protectionism, there would be losers if the
protections were removed, even though the total effect would be a
net gain. Boo, hoo. I just don't have much sympathy for people who
use government coercion to protect their position from fair
competition.
"Free trade is win/win. The more trade with more people and
fewest restrictions produces the greatest wealth. Indeed trade is
tightly correlated to wealth. Trade in labor is half the equation.
By restricting the ability for workers to optimize their
compensation, we're tying one hand behind our economic back."
Overall it is. But it does come at a price for certain people. If
you had true open borders you would have very competetitive labor
market. It would be great for employers because they would have
virtually endless stream of workers to chose from. Don't like this
one? No problem, fire his ass and bring in another one from
Bangledesh or wherever. For people like you and I Warren who have
skills and advantages that is all good. We get cheap products and
changes are they won't be bringing in people to replace us. For a
lot of other people it sucks ass. I would rather pay a little more
for things and be a little less well off and in return have a
really tight job market where anyone can get at least an entry
level job easily. I understand that is not free trade and there is
a price to be paid for it. But I think we would have a better more
equitable society for it.
Oh yeah. John's just looking out for the po' folk. (At least the
po' 'mericans.)
Right.
As for me, I need me some wetbacks to sort my brie and stack my
cases of chardonnay.
"As for me, I need me some wetbacks to sort my brie and stack my
cases of chardonnay."
You just need that HB1 Visa guy who is only in the country because
he has a job. If you fire him he is out of the country in less than
a week. It is great, you don't have to promote him, give him a
raise or in anyway treat him like a human being. If he doesn't like
it, he can go back to wear he came from. So much better than hiring
an American who can quit anytime. Or you need an illegal to come
and work for you, who can't sue you claim workman's comp or have
any leverage whatsoever. It is a great deal either way.
Boo, hoo. I just don't have much sympathy for people who use
government coercion to protect their position from fair
competition.
Right-on Shawn.
The argument that "if we did this, some people would be
disadvantaged" seems to only be acceptable in this country if the
disadvantaged are those who are more wealthy than we think they
should be.
The argument that "if we did this, some people would be
disadvantaged" seems to only be acceptable in this country if the
disadvantaged are those who are more wealthy than we think they
should be.
rewrite:
The argument that "but if we did this, some people would be
disadvantaged" is an acceptable deterrant to a change in policy
except if the disadvantaged are those who are more wealthy than we
think they should be.
I've been waiting for one of these to come along before
subscribing and therefore I just subscribed.
Reverse drink? How do you do that, exactly?
I've been waiting for one of these to come along before
subscribing and therefore I just subscribed.
Reverse drink? How do you do that, exactly?
I just puked up some alcohol. Thanks, Shawn.
Most people who write and post on Reason have neve wanted for anything so they don't give a shit because it doesn't effect them.
I started my career doing farm work, menial construction, fast food
and assembly line work for minimum wage and less. In my current
profession I have to learn a significant new skill set every two
years or so just to stay current. You can take this "argument," put
it on a skewer and stuff it up your ass. Sideways.
And speaking of Sideways, Citizen Nothing, I prefer Pinot
Noir and chèvre. I've always thought brie is French for Velveeta,
but maybe I've never had the good stuff. Also, I agree with you
about the line in the sand. It was the one stated policy from Ron
Paul that disturbed me.
Reverse drink? How do you do that, exactly?
I've done some reverse drinking in my time and I don't recommend it
unless absolutely necessary. I believe the Aussies call it a
Technicolor yawn.
"You can take this "argument," put it on a skewer and stuff it
up your ass. Sideways."
With free immigration you wouldn't of had any of those jobs. So, I
guess you can tell everyone else to stick it up their ass sideways
now that you have made it. God damn it you want your lawn mowed for
under $50 bucks.
Restricting is a form of social welfare. We pay higher wages and prices for things to keep the job market at the low end tight an make it easier for people at the bottom of the wage scale. I would rather do that as a social welfare program that write checks to people. The Libertarian response breaks into two camps. One is just to say fuck people at the lower end of the wage scale I want mine. The second is to say that the welfare of immigrants is more important than welfare of natives and if bringing in immigrants improves overall welfare at the expense of natives that is just too bad. I find both of those arguments repugnant. It is not like we are not rich as all hell and can't afford to have closed borders. A country with closed borders and a really tight labor market is a more egalitarian and just society for those in it than one with open borders and a brutally competitive labor market. Yeah that sucks for the Mexicans and Nigerians. But there is nothing to stop them from fixing their countries and getting rich themselves. It is not mine or the US's fault thier governments suck.
Is it really good to invite lots of people to come here in order to help their relatives abroad, and who will otherwise have little or no connection to this country, i.e. will not see themselves as "Americans"? Sounds like a recipe for chaos to me. But if you're for the dissolution of the nation-state and the creation of a culturally fragmented rat-race, I guess it's cool.
And that's why wages kept falling in the U.S> throughout the 19th century.
Oh wait! They didn't!
Very good point.
With free immigration you wouldn't of had any of those jobs.
You know that how? Furthermore, how do you know I wouldn't have
been better off? Even if I would have been worse off, what right
did I have to deny other people those jobs?
So, I guess you can tell everyone else to stick it up their ass sideways now that you have made it.
No, I'm telling you to stick your emotional
non-argument up your ass sideways.
Restricting is a form of social welfare. We pay higher wages and prices for things to keep the job market at the low end tight an make it easier for people at the bottom of the wage scale. I would rather do that as a social welfare program that write checks to people. The Libertarian response breaks into two camps. One is just to say fuck people at the lower end of the wage scale I want mine. The second is to say that the welfare of immigrants is more important than welfare of natives and if bringing in immigrants improves overall welfare at the expense of natives that is just too bad.
No. What we are sayign is that it is immoral for A to
point a gun at B and say to him, "B, if you hire C, I will hurt
you."
I know this can be a very difficult concept to grasp but that's the
motivation.
I find both of those arguments repugnant.
Wonderful. You find the strawmen you constructed repellent. Big
whooping surprise.
I on the other hand find your actual argument: that you
don't like whom other people choose do business with and so you're
going to threaten them with beatings, kidnapping, and even on
occasion death to satisfy your desire for social engineering
fucking repugnant.
You want teenagers to be employed, hire one then.
"I on the other hand find your actual argument: that you don't
like whom other people choose do business with and so you're going
to threaten them with beatings, kidnapping, and even on occasion
death to satisfy your desire for social engineering fucking
repugnant."
Yeah, that is a real arguement. Enforcing borders is threatening
with kidnapping and beating. Come on Terran you are normally not
that stupid. The agrument is very simple, it is better not to have
a huge underclass and for job markets in low skilled labor to be
tight. That way people have an easier time getting into the job
market and moving up in society. Open borders are great if you
don't care the very bottom of society and don't mind having a
perminant underclass.
Maybe you are just too stupid to understand the arguement. More
likly, you don't have a good response to it so instead say a bunch
of stupid shit about kidnapping and hope no one notices. It is not
a non-argument at all. It is just that you two dumb asses don't
have a response to it.
John,
Enforcing borders is threatening with kidnapping and beating. Come on Terran you are normally not that stupid.
Oh that's right, because when ICE arrests someone for trying to sneak into the country, they don't lay a finger on them.
ICE agents don't handcuff people they arrest.
And, if ICE orders someone to stop, and the guy keeps walking, they won't tackle him.
If he stuggles, they wont electrocute him.
If he keeps struggling, they won't shoot him to death with real bullets.
Once they stop resisting, they don't lock them up in cages awaiting deportation.
Next you'll be telling me that the Birmingham PD didn't hurt any civil rights marchers when they set the police dogs on them.
Dude, you're losing the argument. Quit while you are behind before you make an even bigger ass of yourself.
The agrument is very simple, it is better not to have a huge underclass and for job markets in low skilled labor to be tight.
Yes, I understand your argument. The only problem with it is that in a free market you don't get a permanent underclass - labor becomes incredibly scarce - read Benjamin Franklin's In His Own Words - he explains why.
Having concluded wrongly that open borders means a permanent underclass of unemployed, you feel that preventing the rise of such an underclass is worth the price of requiring people to get government permission to work. And since people persist in moving here despite your entreaties to stop, you are quite happy to use violence to engineer the society you want.
Maybe you are just too stupid to understand the arguement. More likly, you don't have a good response to it so instead say a bunch of stupid shit about kidnapping and hope no one notices. It is not a non-argument at all. It is just that you two dumb asses don't have a response to it.
John,
I've pointed out the empirical data that proves you wrong. I have explained the theory of why you are wrong. I have even pointed out that to get your way, you will have to hurt innocent people despite your desperate desire that it weren't the case.
Calling me stupid isn't going to change the fact that you are a social engineer who is backing a policy that is harming innocent people, and leaving himself and his countrymen poorer than they otherwise would be.
The only thing your little temper tantrums are going to accomplish is to make you look stupider.
John,
If Pedro comes across the border, gets a job from Ned and rents an
apartment from Larry, whose rights has he violated,
specifically?
"The only thing your little temper tantrums are going to
accomplish is to make you look stupider."
Terran you are the one throwing temper tantrums. Calling ICE
deporting people "kidnapping" is just being a troll and beneath
response
As far as data, even pro immigration people admit that immigration
has a depressing effect on the wages of non-high school educated
workers. It has to. You increase the supply of low skilled workers,
the wages are going to fall. Further, we don't have open borders
right now. It was a lot harder to travel to the US in the 19th
Century than it is now. We also don't have an entire frontier to
settle people in. Open borders with modern travel creates an
endless supply of workers, something that didn't exist in the 19th
Century. Lastly, even if you had "open borders" unless you are
willing to let every criminal and terrorist in, you are always
going to have an illegal immigration issue. There are going to be
people who get kicked out for committing crimes who want back in or
people who have bad backgrounds in their home country who want in.
So regardless of the policy we will still ICE out there enforcing
the borders.
I am not anti-immigration. I am just anti-open borders. We need to
think about immigration and ensure that we look out for the welfare
of people already here. You in contrast are just a fanatic. It
doesn't matter what the truth is or fucking things would actually
be without nation states or borders, you are never going to give up
your utopian vision of the world. Good for you but you are not a
serious person about these things and go have fun dodging ICE black
helicopters.
"If Pedro comes across the border, gets a job from Ned and rents
an apartment from Larry, whose rights has he violated,
specifically?"
It has nothing to do with rights. It is about what we owe the low
skilled members of our society. It is about whether there is such a
thing as national sovereignty. People like Terran would kill off
sovereignty. Of course he lives every day fat dumb and happy in a
really nice place thanks to national sovereignty.
Maybe we should just say fuck them. If you are low skilled too bad.
We should bring in as many people as possible to ensure wages are
as low as possible and entry level jobs are always at a premium.
That is a recipe for some people doing really well. If you want
your lawn mowed for $30 a week or a cheap nanny life is great. No
question from a purely economic sense that is the way to go. But I
don't like that idea. I think we have a better society if labor
markets are tight even it means I have to pay $100 to get my lawn
mowed.
It has nothing to do with rights.
I contend it has everything to do with rights, considering
they're the foundation of both my country and my philosophy. I
contend that Pedro has the right to associate with whomever he
pleases, just like you and I do. Do you deny this? If so, please
explain to me who you believe "rights" do and do not pertain
to.
It is about what we owe the low skilled members of our society.
Life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness? Equal treatment by the
law? The opportunity to obtain a quality education up to the age of
18? A guaranteed job at a certain wage is not one of those
things.
It is about whether there is such a thing as national sovereignty.
Seriously, what does this mean? You sound like a politician or
lonewackoff. If you are conflating immigration with citizenship,
that's dishonest. Permanent residents don't get the right to
vote.
Also, you seem hell-bent on maintaining an extremely simplistic,
unimaginative vision of what open immigration would do that is
completely biased by what the current arbitrarily closed system has
produced. When you look at the number of people who are lining up
for H1Bs I don't see why you think open immigration would only
produce increased competition at the low end. It's a little bit
bigger issue than whether you hire a Mexican or a teenager to mow
your lawn. Try to wrap your brain around that a little bit.
Maybe we should just say fuck them. If you are low skilled
too bad.
Seems to me that somebody here is saying exactly that,
John.
The US should tripple its immigration quotas accross the board. That would at least let more legal immigrants in while congress debates about the rest of our immigration policies. Why won't Barr support increased quotas?
these contries are poor bedcause threyh were raped thbythe white industrilaist pig nations for decades and then they were hit with trade sancetions when thye overtheryew their imperialist overloards. notw globable warlming will destroy thiese' nations environment andtheir econiemes even more completely and tall the west will sya is they should bemore tlike the swest and gie all the power to rich
As far as data, even pro immigration people admit that
immigration has a depressing effect on the wages of non-high school
educated workers.
As though timed to respond to John's claims of the harm done by
immigrants to the wages of native low skilled workers, we have a
new study...
Using our estimates and Census data we find that immigration (1990-2006) had small negative effects in the short run on native workers with no high school degree (-0.7%) and on average wages (-0.4%) while it had small positive effects on native workers with no high school degree (+0.3%) and on average native wages (+0.6%) in the long run. These results are perfectly in line with the estimated aggregate elasticities in the labor literature since Katz and Murphy (1992). We also find a wage effect of new immigrants on previous immigrants in the order of negative 6%.
So immigration causes a short run slight decrease in wages and a
long run slight rise in wages. As prior studies and arguments have
shown, the only people whose wages are materially impacted are the
last wave of immigrants.
RC Dean:That's right, like everyone else on this thread you dismiss my arguments with a "he's probably on drugs" schtick. BTW I am not the same classwarrior that usually posts here.
That's right, like everyone else on this thread you dismiss
my arguments [...]
Well, it's your own fault for encrypting your arguments before
posting them. We're not the NSA, you know.
BTW I am not the same classwarrior that usually posts
here.
Then why not choose an original handle?
it's so inefficient to ship all these foreigners over here and
try to match them up with 30-week jobs so they can go back home
wealthy. much better to raise our taxes to such a point that the
amount of wealth we're allowed to retain is equal to the amount of
wealth the nigerians will have after we send them all our taxes.
obama for prez!
on a more historical note, prior to world war 1 young male
eye-talians and assorted other swarthy europeans used to come over
here, do the farming for circa 30 weeks and return home to buy a
plot of land with the accumulated cash. i am not sure those kind of
jobs are available in sufficient quantities today.
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