Tim Cavanaugh | August 3, 2006
Dying to Win author Robert Pape weighs in on the Hezbollah issue, but I'm not totally convinced of his take. Pape defines Hezbollah as "neither a political party nor an Islamist militia" but rather a "broad movement that evolved in reaction to Israel's invasion of Lebanon in June 1982." So far so good, but I think he takes this theme too far in saying the organization was "never tight-knit," and more of an "umbrella organization...of a loose collection of groups with a variety of religious and secular aims," more akin to the "multidimensional American civil-rights movement of the 1960's." This is the same stuff they've been saying, probably accurately, about "Al Qaeda" for years, but I don't know that it's applicable here. If I may channel my inner Raphael Patai for one generalization: Decentralized decision-making is a feature of many elements of Muslim society, and I'd rank Hezbollah as being far more centralized than the average.
Some combination of multi-interest dynamics could explain why Hezbollah's political maneuvers in Lebanon have been so inconsistent over the years, but when I went to interview Mohammad Fneish, for example, they certainly seemed organized, requiring a battery of security checks, disclaimers to fill out, personal information, etc., and that's after you go by a bunch of hard-looking characters who patrol outside their headquarters building (or patrolled; the building is gone now). The tasks of the security people, the PR people, the politicians, and the clerical staff all seemed as well established as you'd see in a military organization, and this was just to get access to a politician.
The problem may be that Pape seems to be working with 20-year-old information, but some of that information is pretty interesting. Contemplate this on the tree of woe:
In writing my book on suicide attackers, I had researchers scour Lebanese sources to collect martyr videos, pictures and testimonials and the biographies of the Hezbollah bombers. Of the 41, we identified the names, birth places and other personal data for 38. Shockingly, only eight were Islamic fundamentalists. Twenty-seven were from leftist political groups like the Lebanese Communist Party and the Arab Socialist Union. Three were Christians, including a female high-school teacher with a college degree. All were born in Lebanon.
Suicide attacks, however, haven't been a central part of Hezbollah tactics for quite some time. I'm not optimistic about Israel's ability to whittle Hezbollah down to manageable size, nor of the Lebanese state's ability ever to get the monopoly on violence it needs to be viable. But Hezbollah has had its head out of the water for years, and could be vulnerable in the ways an organization becomes vulnerable when it grows out of its guerrilla/terrorism stage of development.
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tim, i love you because you work in choice lines from conan the barbarian every chance you get.
H Balls: "If you oppose Hezbollah, you oppose
God"
Is that a belief, a Hezbollah summary, a satirical comment,
other?
DC
"What these suicide attackers � and their heirs today �
shared was not a religious or political ideology but simply a
commitment to resisting a foreign occupation."
Any foreign occupation excepting Syria.
Hezbollah's string are pulled from Damascus. A few well place
missiles from Israel will cut the purse-strings.
"...nor of the Lebanese state's ability ever to get the monopoly
on violence it needs to be viable."
The age old definition of the State, surely.
I think its a mistake to assume Hez is anyone's puppet.
They have exterior support, but the forces that created them are
certainly local.
I wouldnt rule out the Israeli invasion, or its creation: the aptly
named christian phalange, or a torrent of US Navy main gun shells
up & down the Bekaa...such things both plow & fertilize the
grounds, for whatever grows next.
Nobody is obligated to sit thru oppression, murder, theft, &
wanton destruction. Even Muslim peasants.
Nobody is obligated to sit thru oppression, murder, theft,
& wanton destruction. Even Muslim peasants.
How about Israelis? Are they obligated to sit through it?
I don't suppose it occurs to Pape that many of those actually
pulling triggers on both sides are too young to have been affected
by this "occupation" in 1982 -- you know, the one that supposedly
justifies cowardly, unprovoked strikes against Israel more than 24
years later?
Nobody is obligated to sit thru oppression, murder, theft,
& wanton destruction.
Oh, the poor things, forced to pre-emptively kidnap Israeli
military personnel and launch rockets at their civilians. You're
breaking my heart.
As long as I can still get Lebanese food somewhere in the world, I
don't mind waving farewell to the entire population of Lebanon.
"Let's be clear, we're innocent civilians, not Hezbollah!
We just support everything that they do and say, and wish for the
annihilation of Israel just like they do!" Eat missiles, you
weak-ass Islamobot pussies.
I'm not optimistic about Israel's ability to whittle
Hezbollah down to manageable size, nor of the Lebanese state's
ability ever to get the monopoly on violence it needs to be
viable
If you've been following where Hezbollah's rockets have landed the
past few weeks it seems clear that it is israel's intention to push
them far enough north that they can't reach Israel. They are pretty
close now actually.
What happens after that though is much less clear to me. I'm
assuming Israel would hope very much for a multinational fighting
force to act as a buffer. Yet another neutered peacekeeping force
won't work.
from my watching the last 30 odd years, the US & Israelis
damn near have a monopoly on bombing the crap out of people, oh, I
mean, "suspected terrorist positions"
We never hear if the suspicions are correct or not, do we?
Back when that empty nitwit Reagan was titular head, we first
deployed the Marines as "neutral peacekeepers" in Lebanon, a job
they really dont need. That not generating enough excitement, his
handlers had the New Jersey- or was it the Iowa? deployed, which
promptly started flinging 18 in projectiles up & down the
(Shiia, peasant) Bekaa. For WEEKS.
They were supposed to sit quietly under that. Ill bet YOU didnt
protest. I sure as hell did
The perception management campaign here was that they were
"precision munitions" , you know, the old "surgical strike". The
fact they blew to hell the Marines neutrality, as well as untold
number of Lebanese to hell, was dismissed. As was the Marine
commanders request they be able to fortify. That was denied.
10 months later, because some Navy gunlayers squawked to high
heaven, the Dod layed out some 11 million US to make more big gun
powder. Why? Because laying big guns is a science, & the
powder, of Korean War vintage, couldnt put a 1900 lb projectile
within 4 MILES of point of aim.
Ah, yes, "precision" strikes.
After 6 odd weeks of this wanton destruction, Hez blew up a Marine
barracks. the Marine commander on the ground was crucified by the
chickenhawks who ordered up the shelling to begin with. The name
Cheney ring any bells?
Who is supposed to sit under what now? Israel is reaping what it
has sown, and still butchering noncombatants, on my dime. As
usual.
The US Army is takin chickenhawks up to age 42 these
days..........feel free.
"I don't suppose it occurs to Pape that many of those actually
pulling triggers on both sides are too young to have been affected
by this 'occupation' in 1982"
The Israeli occupation in Lebanon commenced in
1982. The Israelis occupation didn't finish until
2000 (with the arguable exception of the Shebaa Farms).
Oh, the poor things, forced to pre-emptively kidnap Israeli
military personnel and launch rockets at their civilians. You're
breaking my heart.
Hezbullah launched rockets on Israel after Israel bombed the shit
out ot Beirut and other Lebanese cities. Israel have some 10,000
Palestinians and Lebanese prisoners for years, some were kidnapped
from Lebanon. So, why is the kidnapping of 2 israeli soldiers
should be ground for war, but not the other way around?
The Israeli occupation in Lebanon commenced in 1982. The
Israelis occupation didn't finish until 2000 (with the arguable
exception of the Shebaa Farms).
Actually, it started in 1978 when Israel invaded southern Lebanon.
Israel invaded and occupied the rest of country in 1982.
Would zeroentitlement also not mind the death of all of the Israeli population, or is zeroentitlement a racist?
Hezbullah launched rockets on Israel after Israel bombed the
shit out ot Beirut and other Lebanese cities.
Anon, thats just a flat out lie. You and I both know that Hezbollah
had been launching rockets into Israel way before the current
conflict broke out. It was definetely not much compared to the
current barrage but even one is too many.
As long as I can still get Lebanese food somewhere in the
world, I don't mind waving farewell to the entire population of
Lebanon.
In other words, you "deny Lebanon's right to exist," would like to
"drive the Lebanese into the sea," and ... hmm, any other cliches
we could retrofit for this conversation?
Is Val right? Wasn't Hamas launching 'rockets' (bottle variety no doubt)? I don't think Hez was.
Of the 41, we identified the names, birth places and other
personal data for 38. Shockingly, only eight were Islamic
fundamentalists.
Suicide bombers make me think of the Hale-Bopp Comet, the people of
Jonestown, the kamikaze and something someone famous once said
about military training and accepting the inevitability of
death.
...none of which is specific to Islamic fundamentalism.
I could imagine a commoner in Lebanon thinking it would be
better if Israel would go away. Then Hezbollah would dissolve and
peace would come. Of course they would not imagine being a satrapy
for...and the consequences of...
I cannot see where Israel could ever imagine peace no matter how
hard they pound their enemies. The best they can achieve is to keep
their enemies at a distance. Maybe living in a secure bubble is
acceptable?
This is a mess.
Exhaustive studies done on suicide bombers demonstrate that
religious fanaticism is a very small factor. The largest number of
suicide bombers have been Marxists in Sri Lanka. It is a
psychological response to foreign occupation. Some people evidently
find this harder to bear than even the worse home grown
dictators.
Israeli Jews will enjoy the same safety and security as those
living in the U.S. as soon as they begin to treat Palestinians and
other Muslim minorities the same way we treat illegal aliens.
The IDF will kill as many innocent women and children as they need
to if they think that even a few terrorist are in a given vicinity.
Can you imagine a SWAT team in the U.S. operating under such rules?
Just bomb the entire block and kill every family in the
neighborhood. You are bound to get the terrorists along with them,
unless they've already left.
Ever since 1948 when Moshe Dayan directed his men to dump typhus
and dysentery into the local Palestinian wells, and had them shoot
the prominent village men, the IDF has operated under such rules.
It has brought them temporary tactical victory, but not lasting
peace and security.
In terms of structure and hierarchy, it is less comparable
to, say, a religious cult like the Taliban than to the
multidimensional American civil-rights movement of the
1960�s.
I'm speechless.
During the reign of noted Peacenik and antiwar activist Ariel Sharon (sarcasm intended), 14 IDF soldiers were killed by Hezbollah -- he didn't invade and get all bent out of shape because he was smart enough to know what would happen if he did: Israel bogged down in another occupation with Hezbollah and Syria gaining the upperhand in a country on the path towards liberalism. Olmert is as big of a dumbass as Bush and I hate to say it, but a lot more muslims would be alive if Sharon were still in power.
zeroentitlement, have you ever read what happens to people who
set out to destroy monsters? You just justified a genocide. Well
done.
Michael, it was a comment about organization, not morality. Cripes,
can't you people ever think about anything besides putting white
and black hats on people?
I was going to say something here, but I've lost the will to type. I have Middle East Fatigue, Levantine Lethargy, and Ottoman Ennui.
Can you imagine a SWAT team in the U.S. operating under such
rules? Just bomb the entire block and kill every family in the
neighborhood.
Yeah, I can imagine that. Becuase it's happened in US public
housing complexes. Not bombing of course, but certainly sweeping
every single unit of an apartment building. The police have been
lucky they aren't facing an armed force like Hezbollah trying to
defend their turf. But if the cops started facing gunfire from
multiple directions, do you think the police would decide "These
drug sweeps aren't worth it" or do you think this would make the
police even more determined to "Go in there and clean the place up"
(begging for more aid, of course).
So much anger, so little reading comprehension.
"Hey, didn't they do that in the Middle Ages, as well? Yes, I'm
sure I read that somewhere. Those krafty kikes started the
plague!"
I like this reasoning. I can get wasted every single day, and have
no job, and if anyone calls me on it, I'll just remind them that
there is a long history of bigots accusing Irish men of being drunk
and lazy.
BTW, the way you worked "camel" in there - very nice. Let's us know
exactly where you're coming from.
Ddduuuudddeeessss....
Chillax. Stop arguing about hizbollah.
I think they should pass a UN resolution whereby no person is
allowed to express an opinion on the middle east until they have
actaully gone over there and/or been kidnapped.
You and I both know that Hezbollah had been launching
rockets into Israel way before the current conflict broke out. It
was definetely not much compared to the current barrage but even
one is too many.
I was talking about the current conflict. But, if you are in the
mood of travelling back in history. Then you and I know very well
that Israel was bombing the shit out of Lebanon since forever. So,
what is your point?
Can you imagine a SWAT team in the U.S. operating under such
rules? Just bomb the entire block and kill every family in the
neighborhood.
Well, if there were multiple volleys of artillery rockets emanating
from that block targeting civlian areas and that's what it took to
stop it, I would have to say it was probably justified.
Sorry, but its a war, not a daisy farm.
Mark VIII,
Egad! Levantine Lethargy is contagious! Quick everyone--sterilize
your keyboards!
The sum total of all Israeli deaths - civilian and military -
from this conflict is still lower than the number of Lebanese
civilians killed in the one airstrike in Cana.
The sum total of all Israeli civilian deaths is still lower than
the number of children killed in that one airstrike.
I write for RC, because he is just incredibly concerned with
civilian deaths.
Also, I find it's become necessary to remind peole of the
timeline of the current crisis.
1. Hezbollah crosses border, engages Israeli squad, kills one and
captures two.
2. Israel conducts bombing campaign throughout Lebanon.
3. Hezbollah begins rocket offensive.
For some reason, most people appear to believe that Israel launched
the air campaign to shut down the rocket attacks.
I was talking about the current conflict. But, if you are in
the mood of travelling back in history. Then you and I know very
well that Israel was bombing the shit out of Lebanon since forever.
So, what is your point?
Hmmm, i thought I was being clear. Apparently not to some people.
My point was that since the Israely withdrawal from Lebanon in
2000, (the end of the previous major conflict between the two
countries), Hezbollah had continied to mass weapons on Israel's
northern border and had continued to launch rockets into Israel. So
for simpletons that suggest that the current conflict was started
by by the kidnapping of the two soldiers,WRONG, that was simply
Hezbollah's last act in a string of many over the last six years,
which had figurately, given the political climate in Israel 'broke
the camels back' or in this case broke Lebanon's back. So thats my
point.
We can always go back further, and talk about why Israel bombed and
invaded Lebanon in the first place way back then. Remember? I seem
to think it may have been another little organization that
represented a minority of the Lebanese people that decided to use
Lebanon as its headquarters and military base against Israel.
Deja-vu? What was it called? Oh ya the PLO.
And before you bring up Shebaa farms area (part of Golan heights)
to justify Hezbollah's actions. Just so we are clear, the farms
area has high elevations overlooking a score of Israel's northern
towns and are of immense strategic value. And it would be
tantamount to suicide for those towns to give up high ground from
which rockets can be launched to even greater distances. I doubt
any Israely administration could survive the political fallout from
simply withdrawing and allowing militant organzations who call for
the destruction of the country to have the advantage of higher
ground right on the border. When there is peace and trust those
areas can be returned. Until then u have to be realistic.
for the record: i opposed my dimes being sent to Saddam Hussien,
Jordan, Egypt, Saudi, & the US imposing Arafat on the West
Bank. Just as I oppose my dimes goin to those murderous loons in
Israel.
Those particular loons have piled up more bodies than the rest
combined by this point. Burnt thru more of my money, too, to no
particular end.
Val,
Being realistic is one thing.
But despite all the religious and bigoted rhetoric, this is a
struggle over the land, and Israel's occupation of land others see
as theirs is the root cause of the violence (strategic value does
not justify my taking of your land).
Negotiate a reasonable settlement and return of occuppied lands
(the disputed territories), and Israel might get peaceful
coexistence with its neighbors. Your plan leads to endless war.
Being realistic is one thing.
But despite all the religious and bigoted rhetoric, this is a
struggle over the land, and Israel's occupation of land others see
as theirs is the root cause of the violence (strategic value does
not justify my taking of your land).
Negotiate a reasonable settlement and return of occuppied lands
(the disputed territories), and Israel might get peaceful
coexistence with its neighbors. Your plan leads to endless
war.
Hey,hey,hey, I dont have any plan that leads to an endless war. I
dont have a plan period. I was simply stating facts, or atleast
what I beleive to be facts. Im all for a resonable settlement and
the return of lands. The problem as always will be reasonableness,
you know what one sees as reasonable and just another sees
oppresive and unjust. However I beleive that before any such
agreement there needs to be figurative chages in the stated goals
of Hamas and Hezbollah. For example destrcution of Israel can be
replaced by a goal to end occupation and establishment of a
sovereign Palestinian state. Now such a change would not entail any
difficulties except that it would root out true extremists.
"stated goals of Hamas and Hezbollah...root out true
extremists"
True. And if we can root out the extremists in the Keneset (sp?)
that believe Israel has the god-given right to a much larger chunk
of land than it currently has, then the extremists can fight it out
on the fringes. Israel's current strategy, however, makes the
extremist arguments seem central and legit. By holding all
Palestians hostage to the Hamas policy, for instance, the IDF
eventually contributed to a Hamas victory in a popular vote (fatah
helped a good deal as well). Same goes for Hezb. The lack of
discrimination by Israel between those like Iran/Hezb that want
them destoyed and those like (most) Palestinians/ Lebonese who want
them to end the occupation makes their position endlessly hostile
to the very people who could help them gain the security they claim
to want.
True. And if we can root out the extremists in the Keneset (sp?)
that believe Israel has the god-given right to a much larger chunk
of land than it currently has, then the extremists can fight it out
on the fringes. Israel's current strategy, however, makes the
extremist arguments seem central and legit...
Agreed. Extremists on all sides need to go. But I dont think the
current conflict can described as an expansionist compaign by
anyone. I think that maybe Hezbollah had decided to test the
resolve and tactics of the new Israely administration. However,
they definetly bit of more then they ment, I doubt they were going
for a new full out conflict.
Political careers are relatively short, so it takes true
visionaries to actually implement long-term goals,even at the risk
of immediate unpopularity. For most part political decission
however are pretty short sighted. They achieve immediate or a
mid-term goals. And right now in Israel you have a green horn
president who needs to show that he is made of the 'right'
stuff.
You also have to consider the fact that Lebanon is extremely
diverse and Hezbollah isnt exactly favored in a number of areas. So
we'll have to wait see what Lebanon's climate will look like after
this. This might unite Lebanon, which is perfectly fine, but at the
same time I think many more will be weary of letting a
state-within-a-state situation go unchecked. Its still very
possible that this will play out well for Israel in the long term.
They might get a pissed of neighbour to the north, which they
already have anyway in the shape of Hez. But now they might get an
international buffer force, hopefuly with some teeth and eventually
a Lebanon with out so strong a Hezbollah. And eventually in about
10 years, relations can start to thaw. Up until recently I actualy
though the Lebanon was going to be next Arab country to normalize
relations with Israel.
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