Ron Paul

Ron Paul Rising: Evidence from National Polls on Ron Paul's Supporters

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On Tuesday, Ron Paul shocked the nation with a strong second place finish in the New Hampshireprimary.

Amidst the ephemeral rise and fall of most of the GOP field (Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum) Ron Paul has found a steady and consistent rise in the polls. In effect, the once-considered-fringe candidate has vaulted into the GOP top tier.

Data collected from Real Clear Politics demonstrates Paul's steady rise in the polls from 2009 through 2011. By December 2011 there is a steep increase in support for Paul, likely as Iowa caucus pollsshowed him coming in first. Although Paul was a few percentage points shy of winning the Iowa caucus on Jan 2, Americans have begun to view Paul as an electable candidate.

 

Who Are Ron Paul Supporters?

A natural question is to ask who are Ron Paul's supporters and what distinguishes them from other voters. Entrance/Exit poll data from the Iowa Caucuses, the New Hampshire primary, and data from two Reason-Rupe Polls help illuminate common characteristics of Paul supporters.

Iowa

Ron Paul overwhelming won the youth vote, and by youth I mean he received more votes from Iowa voters 40 years and younger than any other candidate. Fifty percent of 17-24 year olds, 45 percent of 25-29 year olds, and 34 percent of 30-39 year olds. (More on the youth vote here.) Problematically for the Paul campaign, voters under 40 years old made up only 25 percent of the Iowa vote, while voters 65 and older made up another 26 percent of the vote, and the plurality of those older voters went to Romney at 33 percent, Santorum at 20 percent, Gingrich at 17 percent, and to Paul at 11 percent.

Paul tied with Romney and Santorum for 25 percent each of college graduates, and Paul's support is fairly evenly distributed among all educational levels. Paul won the vote among those making less than $50,000 a year, likely a product of his popularity among younger Americans.

Paul also tied with Romney for winning the urban vote, more than a quarter each respectively. Romney then largely won the suburban vote, and Santorum won the rural vote.

Paul won the vote among those who have never before attended a GOP caucus, in fact, a third of these new attendees cast their votes for Paul. In contrast, nearly a third of those who have previously attended the GOP caucuses voted for Romney.

Paul won the Independent vote by a wide margin, with 43 percent of Independents voting for Paul. Twenty nine percent and 27 percent of Republicans voted for Santorum and Romney, respectively, compared to 14 percent for Paul. Paul also won the moderate vote with 40 percent and Romney closely followed with 35 percent.

Despite assertions that Paul is the father of the modern day Tea Party movement, Tea Partiers in Iowa largely went for Santorum. Nevertheless, this doesn't mean that Paul did not receive a significant share of Tea Party supporters: Roughly 20 percent of Tea Party supporters voted for Paul. This coincides with what my colleague David Kirby and I have found in our research of the Tea Party movement: There are both libertarian-leaning and socially conservative wings to the Tea Party.

Among those whose primary concern is the budget deficit, Paul won with 28 percent. Among those where abortion was the primary concern, Santorum won with 58 percent.

In terms of candidate qualities, Paul won among those who believe that the GOP candidate should be a true conservative with 37 percent. This is somewhat ironic, given that those who voted for Paul largely were Independents and moderates. This may suggest that those moderates and Independents don't believe self-identified conservatives are really all that conservative.

New Hampshire

Once again, Ron Paul overwhelming took the youth vote, or under 40 vote, with 46 percent among 18-24 year olds and 35 percent among 30-39 year olds. Like Iowa, New Hampshire voters under 40 make up about a quarter of total voters.

Paul also won those making less than $30,000 a year, likely a product of his support among young people. Nevertheless, he enjoys diversified support among income groups, about 20-30 percent among each income group except those making over $200,000 a year or more; he only captured 12 percent of these voters. In contrast, Romney captured 52 percent of those making $200,000 a year or more.

Similar to Iowa, Paul clearly beat all other candidates among voters who had never voted in the GOP primary before, with 38 percent of new primary voters. Romney captured 43 percent of voters who had voted in the primary before.

Also similar to Iowa, Paul won the Independent vote (self-identified) with nearly a third. Romney won half the Republicans and Huntsman won 40 percent of the Democrats. Among Tea Party supporters in New Hampshire, Paul took second, garnering 22 percent of their vote. Interestingly, Paul also won among whose who have unfavorable opinions of John McCain.

Although Paul comfortably won the vote among those voters who say they are very liberal on social issues like abortion (39 percent), he still captured about 21 percent of the evangelical Christian vote, only 2 percentage points lower than Santorum. He also captured nearly 50 percent of those who say they do not identify with a religion.

Paul also handily won among those who say that the most important candidate quality is to be a true conservative (41 percent went for Paul) and among those who want the candidate to have a strong moral character (40 percent).

Nationwide

Two Reason-Rupe polls asked Americans about their vote choice for President. Compiling the time series questions from both polls into one dataset produces a dataset with 140 Americans who say they would vote for Ron Paul for president. From these data, analyses are run among Independents and Republicans, providing 102 Ron Paul supporters. This provides an approximate overview regarding the demographics of his nationwide support. Surely, a larger sample size would be ideal, and also it should be recognized that the demographic make-up of his support likely would change over time as more voters become aware of his issue positions and other GOP candidates drop out of the race. Nevertheless, this provides an approximate snapshot of Ron Paul supporters.

As Iowa and New Hampshire polls suggest, Ron Paul supporters are unhappy with the status quo, with 82 percent disapproving of President Obama's job performance and 90 percent disproving of Congress.

A little more than half of Paul's support comes from those who self identify as Tea Party supporters, a quarter who self-identify as non-leaning Independents, and another quarter who self-identify as Republicans. In contrast, 43 percent of Romney's support comes from self-identified Republicans.

Moreover, Paul garners diversified ideological support, with 41 percent coming from conservatives and 22 percent coming from self-identified libertarians, and 26 percent from moderates. (In fact, the most recent Reason-Rupe poll, which also asked about support for the Occupy Wall Street movement, found that 44 percent of Paul's supporters also support the Occupy Wall Street movement.)

Eighty four percent of his support comes from those who are generally fiscally conservative. But 50 percent of his support comes from those are generally socially liberal. In contrast, 72 percent of Romney's support comes from fiscal conservatives and only 37 percent from social liberals.

These data lend additional supporting evidence to the thesis that Paul is creating a new coalition, with far more Independents, disaffected voters, those who do not fit the traditional left-right political spectrum, and those who have previously not been involved with the political process.

Despite their lack of loyalty to the Republican Party and representation of non-Republican stalwarts, Paul supporters overwhelmingly believe that government is not the one-stop solution for America's problems. In fact 85 percent say "the less government the better" and 78 percent say individuals would be better able to handle today's problems within a free market with less government involvement. Somewhat ironically, leading GOP candidate Mitt Romney has a solid 30 percent of supporters who believe the government should be more involved and that we need a strong government to handle complex economic problems. So even though Paul is often perceived as out-of-line with the Republican Party, his supporters clearly represent the fiscally conservative base. Interestingly, Paul supporters are divided on social issues, with half saying the government should promote traditional values in society and the other half believing government should not promote a particular set of values. In contrast, 61 percent of Romney supporters believe the government should intervene to promote traditional values in society.

Sixty six percent of Paul support comes from those younger than 44, compared to 46 percent among Romney supporters. His support is slightly more male than female, (60 percent vs. 40 percent) which is often the case among Republican candidates. His support is fairly evenly distributed across income, although somewhat slightly higher among those making $75,000-$199,000 a year. His support is also fairly evenly distributed across educational groups.

Interestingly, he garners greater support among those employed full time in the private sector (who tend to be more fiscally conservative) and also self-employed individuals (also more fiscally conservative).

Implications

In sum, IowaNew Hampshire, and aggregated Reason-Rupe poll data suggest Ron Paul captures the votes of young Americans under 40, independent non-partisans, strong fiscal conservatives, and those previously disengaged from the political process. Although many political pundits intransigently continue to perceive the political world as a dichotomy along a left-right political spectrum, Paul's success appears to be largely owed to the many Americans who do not fit neatly along a socially/economically liberal vs. socially/economically conservative spectrum. Instead, he attracts a diverse group, with many self-identifying as fiscally conservative and socially liberal. Despite Paul's fiscally conservative base of support, these voters are not Republican stalwarts and may defect if the party fails to meet their demands.  

OBAMA APPROVALMitt RomneyRon PaulTotal
%%%
 Strongly Approve568
 Somewhat Approve18916
 Somewhat Disapprove182416
 Strongly Disapprove545756
 DK545
100100100
CONGRESS APPROVALMitt RomneyRon PaulTotal
%%%
 Strongly Approve112
 Somewhat Approve12611
 Somewhat Disapprove261423
 Strongly Disapprove597557
 DK246
100100100
OBAMA VOTEMitt RomneyRon PaulTotal
%%%
 Definitely Vote For Him7510
 Consider Voting For Him211818
 Definitely Not Vote For Him707668
 DK214
100100100
ROLE OF GOVERNMENT: LESS/MORE GOV
"Some people say the less government the better, others say that there are more things that government should be doing. Which comes closer to your own view?"
Mitt RomneyRon PaulTotal
%%%
 Less Gov the Better678564
 More Gov Should Be Doing301430
 DK326
100100100
ROLE OF GOVERNMENT: GOV/FREE MARKET
"Some people say we need a strong government to handle today's complex economic problems, others say that people would be better able to handle today's problems within a free market with less government involvement. Which comes closer to your own view?"
Mitt RomneyRon PaulTotal
%%%
 STRONG GOV291830
 FREE MARKET657864
 DK647
100100100
ROLE OF GOVERNMENT: GOV PROMOTE TRAD VALUES?
"Some people think the government should promote traditional values in our society. Others think the government should not favor any particular set of values. Which comes closer to your own view?"
Mitt RomneyRon PaulTotal
%%%
 GOV PROMOTE TRAD VALUES614959
 GOV SHOULD NOT PROMOTE TRAD VALUES364636
 DK365
100100100
GENDERMitt RomneyRon PaulTotal
%%%
 MALE516054
 FEMALE494046
100100100
AGE GROUPMitt RomneyRon PaulTotal
%%%
 18-29223520
 30-44243128
 45-54171819
 55-64191118
 65+18515
100100100
RACEMitt RomneyRon PaulTotal
%%%
 WHITE788275
 BLACK234
 HISPANIC15615
 ASIAN584
 NATIVE AMERICA001
 OTHER010
100100100
ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOMEMitt RomneyRon PaulTotal
%%%
 < $25,000141012
 $25,000 to $49,999152221
 $50,000 to $74,999221619
 $75,000 to $99,999141614
 $100,000 to $199,999182114
 $200,000+745
 Refused101114
100100100
EDUCATIONMitt RomneyRon PaulTotal
%%%
 <High School113
 High School142220
 Some College283232
 College Grad323027
 Post Grad191312
 Refused635
100100100
VOTER REGISTRATIONMitt RomneyRon PaulTotal
%%%
 Yes949190
 No387
 Refused313
100100100
REGIONMitt RomneyRon PaulTotal
%%%
 Northeast221616
 Midwest181921
 South303839
 West302723
100100100
POLITICAL LANDSCAPE (NOT INCLUDING DEMOCRATS)Mitt RomneyRon PaulTotal
%%%
 OWS7178
 Pure Independent3106
 OWS/TP5148
 Tea Party473845
 Republican382130
 DK003
100100100
PARTY ID + TEA PARTY (NOT INCLUDING DEMOCRATS)Mitt RomneyRon PaulTotal
%%%
 Tea Party525253
 Pure Independent52512
 Republican432332
 DK003
100100100
EMPLOYMENT STATUSMitt RomneyRon PaulTotal
%%%
 Employed FT PRIVATE334032
 Employed FT PUBLIC768
 Employed PT PRIVATE1398
 EMPLOYED PT PUBLIC623
 Self-Employed81611
 Homemaker666
 Retired15413
 Student233
 Unemployed288
 Refused768
100100100
TEA PARTY SUPPORTER?Mitt RomneyRon PaulTotal
%%%
 Not a Supporter484847
 Yes a Supporter525253
100100100
IDEOLOGY: BASED ON ROLE OF GOVERNMENT QUESTIONSMitt RomneyRon PaulTotal
%%%
 Liberal6910
 Libertarian314128
 Conservative414343
 Communitarian22719
100100100
IDEOLOGY-SELF IDENTIFICATIONMitt RomneyRon PaulTotal
%%%
 Conservative464148
 Moderate312625
 Liberal327
 Libertarian7226
 Progressive846
 Other/DK459
100100100
N2131021,133

Find full Reason-Rupe Q4 2011 poll results, question wording, and methodology here.

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