In 2009, President Obama promised that the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act would "create or save" 3.5 million jobs over the next two years and that the unemployment rate would not rise above 8.5 percent. By the end of 2010, he promised, unemployment would have dropped to 7.25 percent. Furthermore, White House economists forecast that without ARRA spending, the unemployment rate would increase from 7 percent to 8.8 percent. Unfortunately, the administration's estimates were wrong by a vast margin.
This week's chart compares unemployment estimates from the president's 2010 Budget — which contains the original proposed estimates for the impact of the stimulus on unemployment — with actual unemployment rates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. [...]
The lesson: Beware of promises.
Whole thing here.