Who Is Left On The Bench For 2033?
Even if a Republican wins the 2028 presidential election, it will be virtually impossible for the Senate to flip red during his term. In all likelihood, there will not be a Republican President with a Republican Senate until 2033. As a result, it is unlikely that any conservatives are appointed to the Supreme Court, or the lower courts, over the next six years. A friend suggested, mostly in jest, that Chief Justice Roberts should resign to allow his seat to be filled during divided government. But I suspect the Democrats would just keep the seat open for two, four, even six years.
Ed Whelan writes, "The number of current Trump appellate appointees who will be 55 or younger in 2033 will be 18, and only 6 of those will be 50 or younger." Here is my (approximate) list of judges who Trump circuit appointees who were born after 1977. The six judges in blue at the end are the only ones who would be under 50--none from Trump's first term.
- Andrew Oldham 1978
- Britt Grant 1978
- Patrick J. Bumatay 1978
- Matthew Schwartz 1978
- Eric E. Murphy 1979
- Daniel Bress 1979
- Steven Menashi 1979
- Robert J. Luck 1979
- Andrew L. Brasher 1981
- Emil Bove 1981
- Allison Jones Rushing 1982
- Justin R. Walker 1982
- Rebecca Taibleson 1983
- Joshua Dunlap 1983
- Eric Tung 1984
- Justin D. Smith 1985
- Whitney Hermandorfer 1987
- Benjamin M. Flowers 1987
Of course, this all assumes there is no Court "reform" and there will still be a Supreme Court to worry about in six years.
I would make one other observation. Several of the judges who are accused of "auditioning" will likely age out of the Supreme Court short list by 2033. Can we finally exit the audition trap? Let's treat each opinion they write as a reflection of their best judgment, and not some attempt to secure higher office.