Mitch McConnell

Mitch McConnell's Absence Sparks Thomas Massie Senate Speculation

Rumors surrounding McConnell’s health are putting new attention on one of the GOP’s most unconventional lawmakers.

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Mitch McConnell and Robby Soave | Illustration: Adani Samat
(Illustration: Adani Samat)

Welcome to Free Media. Today, here's my take on how Rep. Thomas Massie (R–Ky.) could end up replacing Mitch McConnell in the Senate. That would be sweet, sweet irony after President Donald Trump and GOP donor Miriam Adelson conspired to destroy Massie for his foreign policy heresies and forced him out of Congress. But he could return more powerful than ever, in the U.S. Senate.

Sound crazy? Maybe, or maybe not! Something is going on with McConnell, who checked into the hospital three weeks ago due to unspecified medical issues and has not been seen since. His staff is desperate to assure everybody that there's nothing wrong, and that the senator, who is retiring at the end of the year, will be back to work in no time.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R–S.D.) maintains that he has spoken with McConnell, that he's in good health, and that he'll be voting on legislation again any day now. Republican commentator Scott Jennings said he spoke with McConnell and that he's fine.

Now, the Republican majority is somewhat paralyzed as long as McConnell is out, of course. The Senate Appropriations Committee, on which he sits, is currently deadlocked, which means no bills are forthcoming.

But there are those who think McConnell's situation is much, much, much worse—and that the GOP is effectively covering up his total incapacitation.

Far-right activist and X personality Laura Loomer wrote on X that a "high level source close to the White House tells me 'Mitch McConnell is officially brain dead. He's not coming back.'"

Now, we need to take that with a grain of salt because Loomer has an uneven track record at best. She recently accused Sen. Mark Kelly (D–Ariz.) of getting handsy with someone who wasn't his wife, former Rep. Gabby Giffords (D–Ariz.), but the woman in that photo…is, in fact, Giffords.

But even some mainstream journalists think the official story that McConnell is fine and recovering is a bit fishy.

Semafor's Dave Weigel notes that Sen. Mike Lee (R–Utah) has admitted he has no idea what kind of state McConnell is in, which seems to contradict what Thune said. And of course, we have all seen with our own eyes the multiple instances where McConnell appeared to have some kind of medical episode in public. He is not in good health—that's a fact.

Of course, the question becomes, why would anyone have an interest in hiding McConnell's actual condition? Well, buckle up, because this next part is downright crazy. As I said, McConnell is retiring, and the standard election to replace him will happen in November. It's already squared away: a Republican, Andy Barr, vs. a Democrat, Charles Booker. Barr is supported by the Republican establishment and is overwhelmingly likely to win since Kentucky is a Republican state.

But that's November. What if, God forbid, McConnell doesn't make it until then? Well, in that case, Kentucky would have to hold a special election to fill the seat. Kentucky is one of a handful of states in which the governor can't just appoint a temporary replacement: It would need to schedule a special election. And anybody could file to run as an independent in that election—including Massie.

But here's the catch—this only applies if it became clear that McConnell needed to be replaced before the cutoff date of August 3. After August 3, there will be no special election, even if McConnell is out early. At that point, the seat would simply be empty, and McConnell's replacement would be determined via the normal November election. And it's too late for Massie or anyone else to run as an independent in that one.

To make a long story short, if the Republican establishment wants to block Massie from running for the seat, it needs McConnell to hold out until August 3. No wonder it doesn't want to tell anybody what condition he is in. And for what it's worth, his wife, former Labor Secretary Elaine Chao, is currently out of the country. She's on a tour of China, so she's not available to explain her husband's current state. How convenient.

If you think this whole situation is highly suspicious, you certainly aren't alone. Here was former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R–Ga.) condemning the Republican establishment for not explaining what's really going on.

It may very well be the case that McConnell's final political gambit is to try to deny Massie the opportunity to channel grassroots outrage into a successful Senate run. And if that's what's going on, foes of the establishment have just under a month to unmask this conspiracy.

Robby Soave is a senior editor at Reason.