Campaigns/Elections

McCain by 10 points?!?![*]

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A USA Today/Gallup poll gives the McCain/Palin ticket a 10-point boost over Obama/Biden [*: note correction] in the wake of the Republican National Convention.

Whoda thunk it after that lackluster display in the Twin Cities? Even if it did (improbably) pull better ratings than the Dem version with its hero-worship setting and all that.

But does the convention bounce in the USA Today/Gallup poll (or any other poll) really matter?:

In an analysis of the impact of political conventions since 1960, [University of Virginia's Larry] Sabato concluded that post-convention polls signal the election's outcome only about half the time. "You could flip a coin and be about as predictive," he says. "It is really surprising how quickly convention memories fade."

Indeed, I've already forgotten everything about both conventions, other than Jim Leach's riveting oratory.

RealClearPolitics has McCain up by an average of 3.2 points, with McCain ahead in three polls and tied in two others.