Nifty New Risk Calculations of What's Likely to Kill You
The Journal of the National Cancer Institute has published great new charts showing the risk of dying of various causes for men and women from age 35 and on. It will not surprise anyone that smoking is a bad idea (that is, if you want to up your chances of living a long time.*) The abstract of the analysis notes:
At all ages, the 10-year risk of death from all causes combined is higher for men than women. The effect of smoking on the chance of dying is similar to the effect of adding 5 to 10 years of age. For men who never smoked, heart disease death represents the single largest cause of death from age 50 on. For men who currently smoke, the chance of dying from lung cancer is of the same order of magnitude as the chance of dying from heart disease from age 60 on, and after age 50, it is 10 times greater than the chance of dying from prostate or colon cancer. For women who never smoked, the 10-year risks of death from breast cancer and heart disease are similar until age 60; from this age on, heart disease represents the single largest cause of death. For women who currently smoke, the chance of dying from heart disease or lung cancer exceeds the chance of dying from breast cancer from age 40 on.
See your risks in the charts below:
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For the actual numbers go here for the men's chart and here for the women's chart.
*Disclosure: I am a former 3-pack a day smoker. I quit 22 years ago.