Courtesy of The Weinstein CompanyCourtesy of The Weinstein CompanyThe Academy Awards ceremony is coming up on Sunday, as you may have heard, and so the annual amusement of Oscar forecasting is at full lather. On what basis can Les Misérables, a full-blare Hollywood musical, be considered a better movie than Amour, a grim but gripping account of old age and death? Is the plush history lesson of Lincoln somehow superior to Life of Pi, an elaborate CGI exercise about a tiger in a boat? Kurt Loder reviews the top contenders.