Weekly Reason-Rupe Surveys Archive 2012 April 8-31

General economic malaise continues to permeate the general electorate despite some positive economic indicators. As political science research would suggest, the incumbent president bares a lot of the blame or praise for the economy. The latest Reason-Rupe poll reaffirms this with 53 percent disapproving of President Obama’s handling of the economy.

In terms of general job performance, nearly half approve of President Obama but nearly as many also disapprove.

Congress maintains is steady low level of approval at 15 percent with 78 percent disapproving of Congress.

A majority of women approve of Obama, whereas a majority of men do not. However, when it comes to handling the economy, a majority of both disapprove of President Obama policies.

Americans from the Northeast are the only regional group to have a majority approving of Obama’s general job performance and handling of the economy.

A majority of Latinos (55 percent) approves of Obama’s job performance; however, a majority (53 percent) disapproves of Obama’s handling of the economy.

Similarly a majority of self-identified Independents approves of Obama’s job performance, but a majority (54 percent) disapproves of his handling of the economy.

A majority of public sector workers approve of both Obama’s job performance (59 percent) and handling of the economy (53 percent). In contrast, private sector workers do not reach the majority threshold of support for Obama in general or on the economy.

Frequent churchgoers disapprove of both Obama’s general job performance (53 percent) and handling of the economy (60 percent). In contrast, 58 percent among those who do not attend religious services approve of Obama’s job performance, and 54 percent approve of Obama’s economic policies.

Full poll results found here, and cross tabs found here.

Nationwide telephone poll conducted March 10th-20th of both mobile and landline phones, 1200 adults, margin of error +/- 3 percent. Columns may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding. Full methodology can be found here. 

Emily Ekins is the director of polling for Reason Foundation where she leads the Reason-Rupe public opinion research project, launched in 2011. Follow her on Twitter @emilyekins.

The latest Reason-Rupe poll finds that nearly half of Americans favor the United States attacking Iran to destroy or delay its nuclear program, if Iran were close to being able to produce a nuclear weapon. Under these conditions, 45 percent oppose military intervention, and intensity is split with 30 percent strongly supporting intervention and 30 percent strongly opposing it.

However, this support quickly recedes when potential military intervention is compared to the war in Iraq. Instead, 56 percent of respondents oppose attacking Iraq if it “would start a war that is similar in length and costs to the war in Iraq.” Intensity is on the side of those who oppose intervention with 42 percent who strongly oppose compared to 20 percent who strongly favor.

These data demonstrate that although Americans are concerned about Iran having nuclear capabilities, there are limits to what Americans are willing to pay to stop Iran, especially when Iran’s nuclear capabilities are not fully known. 

Full poll results found here.

Nationwide telephone poll conducted March 10th-20th of both mobile and landline phones, 1200 adults, margin of error +/- 3 percent. Columns may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding. Full methodology can be found here. 

Emily Ekins is the director of polling for Reason Foundation where she leads the Reason-Rupe public opinion research project, launched in 2011. Follow her on Twitter @emilyekins.

Five years after Mexico embarked on an aggressive “war on drugs,” a recent Gallup poll finds Mexicans are less likely to report gangs and drugs in their neighborhood, but are also less likely to feel safe and trust the police.

Whereas 57 percent of Mexicans reported feeling safe walking alone at night in 2007, by 2011 only 42 percent agreed. In 2007, 50 percent had confidence in their local police; confidence dropped 15 points to 35 percent by 2011.

This shift coincides with a 5 percent decline between 2007 and 2011 among Mexicans reporting illegal drug trafficking (33 percent) and gangs (46 percent) in their neighborhoods.

These Gallup poll results suggest there is likely a cost to reducing drug trafficking. Although correlation is not causation, theories of black-market behavior suggest that crackdowns drive more activity to the black market and outside the rule of law. Without rule of law protections, it is less surprising that disputes may resort to violence and other activities that may cause people to feel less safe and have lowered confidence in police.

 

Gallup’s Survey Methodology

Results are based face-to-face interviews with approximately 1,000 adults in each survey, aged 15 and older, and conducted from July 2007-December 2011 in Mexico. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

For more complete methodology and specific survey dates, please review Gallup's Country Data Set details.

Follow Emily Ekins on Twitter @emilyekins. 

The recent Reason-Rupe poll finds that when considering the quality and cost of health care for government workers compared to private sector workers, 67 percent of Americans think government workers receive better health care benefits.

Even among public sector workers, a majority (55 percent) believes they receive better health care benefits than private sector workers.

The belief that public sector workers receive better health care benefits that private sector workers is virtually unchallenged among demographics and political groups. In fact, upwards of 60 percent of each group believe government workers receive better benefits, except for: public sector workers (55 percent agree), communitarians (58 percent agree), and Latinos (59 percent agree).

Interestingly, neither group is statistically more likely to be satisfied with their health care. 59 percent among government workers and 57 percent of private sector workers are satisfied with their healthcare. This suggests that despite both public and private sector workers believing public sector workers receive better health care benefits, both are equally satisfied with their own health care. This raises the question: how is the perceived additional health care benefit among government workers translating into satisfaction, if satisfaction levels are statistically the same across both public and private workers. To answer this, further research will need to be conducted.

Full poll results found here.

Nationwide telephone poll conducted March 10th-20th of both mobile and landline phones, 1200 adults, margin of error +/- 3 percent. Columns may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding. Full methodology can be found here. 

Emily Ekins is the director of polling for Reason Foundation where she leads the Reason-Rupe public opinion research project, launched in 2011. Follow her on Twitter @emilyekins.