Winning New York Was Never Part of Rudy's Strategy
The nightmare scenario of a Clinton/Giuliani matchup next November is looking less and less likely. Judging from the primaries so far, Ron Paul has a better shot at the Republican nomination. Now a new poll finds the former New York City mayor and hero of 9/11 trailing John McCain by 11 points in New York.
Comments to "Winning New York Was Never Part of Rudy's Strategy":
drawn asunder | January 21, 2008, 3:30pm | #
Ha Ha.jj | January 21, 2008, 3:35pm | #
Giuliani positioned himself as the conservative's liberal and the liberal's conservative. Not a winning position in partisan politics.I find his political plummet personally gratifying after his snootiness to Ron Paul at the debates. Oh well, he served his purpose in shining the spotlight on RP's non-interventionist position. Who's our next sacrificial lamb?
sage | January 21, 2008, 3:39pm | #
hero of 9/11Yes, because he scaled the outside of the world trade center buildings and swatted those planes out of the sky before they could do any damage. What a helmet.
Will | January 21, 2008, 3:39pm | #
Bravo Paul!Dondero and Julie-annie will have to attack the evil Muslims on their own...
New York? Winning the presidency was never Rudy's plan...just get national visibility and credibility for the consulting gig.
Maybe Rudy's supporters will write articles claiming how we need another 9/11 to bring us all together and get Rudy elected.
GB | January 21, 2008, 3:49pm | #
No, New York was the one place Rudy could never hope to win. New Yorker's know Rudy was a failure of a mayor who's only redemption was stealing the spotlight for the 9/11 rescue & cleanup from the real heroes.I'm very far from a Giuliani fan but if he manages to win Florida, anything is possible.
R C Dean | January 21, 2008, 4:06pm | #
New Yorker's know Rudy was a failure of a mayor who's only redemption was stealing the spotlight for the 9/11 rescue & cleanup from the real heroes.My recollection is that he was either leading or tied with Hillary during his abortive Senate run in 2000.
mk | January 21, 2008, 4:10pm | #
Guiliani's focus on FLA always seemed to me like a way to delay the inevitable more than an actual strategy.It's like he is inwardly finding a way to fool himself into thinking that he is viable for as along as he can manage it. The deluded fool *laughs*
First Little Pig | January 21, 2008, 4:12pm | #
Having lived in NYC under Ghouliani I concur with GB.As for RC Dean's noting that he was tied with Hillary one should note that she was not even a New Yorker and was clearly using the Empire State as a stepping stone. That the former Mayor of the State's largest city lost to her says loads about how little New Yorkers ultimately cared for him.
Lamar | January 21, 2008, 4:20pm | #
RC Dean has a point though. He has fallen from grace. People who were once big Giuliani supporters have since gotten off that wagon. Why? New Yorkers aren't really sure what the hell he did. And I don't mean little specifics like re-route the subway. The question is what he did to deserve the presidency.And a lot of New Yorkers are astute. They realize that running New York meant arresting everybody, and shooting people, and steamrolling Times Square. That's not how you run a country......It's not even how you run NYC these days. Rudy's time has passed.
joe | January 21, 2008, 4:24pm | #
Rudy didn't lose to Hillary. He quit because he had cancer.He was going to lose, but he left before he could.
I thought they were about tied (it was before non-political people realized how much of a punk he is).
joe is correct, First Little Pig. And joe, it is not clear he was going to lose, but I think he considered it enough of a possibility that he got out. In my opinion he was eyeballing the presidency even then and figured a Senate loss would have looked bad. Better to drop out with a good excuse and let Lazio take the fall.
I kind of wish Giuliani had stayed in the race in 2000 to stop Hillary. Then she wouldn't be running for President right now.
Tom Walls | January 21, 2008, 4:33pm | #
You mean Soup to Nuts, a favorite seasoned citizen eatery not far from The Villages on 441."Dollars to donuts."
I could see McCain campaigning there.
Brett | January 21, 2008, 4:35pm | #
"I kind of wish Giuliani had stayed in the race in 2000 to stop Hillary. Then she wouldn't be running for President right now."She would probably have found some other way, she's like a malevolent virus...
John | January 21, 2008, 4:39pm | #
He'll just end up as Mitt's VP....I guarantee it. I'm a Ron Paul supporter, and I received a secret transmission through my tin foil hat from the Romney campaign that said so.Hillary-Obama vs Mitt-Rudy
Cesar | January 21, 2008, 4:42pm | #
There will never be a Clinton-Obama ticket. Never. Not only is a woman and a minority unbalanced, but they hate eachother.It will be Clinton/Wes Clark. The Clintons only choose Clinton todays.
Lost_In_Translation | January 21, 2008, 4:44pm | #
I'm willing to bet Rudy comes in 3rd in FL.So far I'm 1 for 1 on campaign betting, anybody want to take me up on this?
Dondero? Donderooooooooo?
Upstate with ATTITUDE | January 21, 2008, 4:45pm | #
Jacob Sullum,NEWSFLASH: New York State is not the same thing as New York City. The county with the largest number of Republicans in the state is a 450-mile drive from Manhattan.
joe | January 21, 2008, 4:46pm | #
Lamar,They were tied because the formerly-leading Guiliani's numbers had been on a steady downward trend. IIRC.
joe | January 21, 2008, 4:48pm | #
Thanks, Upstate, none of us knew that New York City didn't actually border Pennsylvania.That changes everything!
Dave B. | January 21, 2008, 4:49pm | #
What about the nightmare scenario of a Hillary/McCain matchup?Wait...if Rudy had gone to the senate in 2000, he would have saved us all on 9/11?
crimethink | January 21, 2008, 4:52pm | #
Actually, it does change everything, joe. The vast majority of Republicans in NYS are not from the NYC metro area, and Upstaters tend to be extremely resentful of NYC politicians. So I don't get the logic that Giuliani would do well among NYS Republicans.John | January 21, 2008, 4:52pm | #
Cesar-I could see that, but I could also see them "burying the hatchet" and running together. Then they could sell themselves as the true uniters who are going to go in and unite Republicans and Democrats and fix Washington. They would get every registered Democrats vote that doesn't hate the Clintons, the woman vote, the minority vote, and they would also pull a ton of Independents.
Here's an interesting Clark interview I stumbled upon..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9SDq86TVE0k
Lost_In_Translation | January 21, 2008, 4:53pm | #
Dave,You get used to a certain level of pain if its inflicted at regular intervals, so a McCain/Hillary matchup is merely a continuance of pain we've come to associate with presidential elections. Giuliani/Hillary is like turning the amp up to 11 on the pain inducing machine.
crimethink | January 21, 2008, 4:56pm | #
LiT,What about Giuliani/Clinton/Bloomberg? It would be the "Subway Series" of presidential elections. God help us.
The Clitnonistas don't bury hatchets with anyone. Its Clinton-Clarke.
Lost_In_Translation | January 21, 2008, 4:59pm | #
crimethink,Not that I have anything against the people of New York, but something like that might just make me want to blow up all the Manhatten bridges and quarantine the entire area if we could gather all 3 there for a debate. Sacrifice the few for the good of the many type thing...again, sorry New Yorkers
crimethink | January 21, 2008, 5:01pm | #
LiT,Trust me, NYCers deserve whatever they get. With the notable exceptions of Rhywun and The Goldberger, of course...
BakedPenguin | January 21, 2008, 5:04pm | #
You mean Soup to Nuts, a favorite seasoned citizen eatery not far from The Villages on 441. ...I could see McCain campaigning there.The Villages? I could see him retiring there. No nasty young punks who dare to question him. Seriously, if he loses, I could see him griping that he "would have gotten away with the presidency, if it weren't for those meddling kids."
Cesar | January 21, 2008, 5:14pm | #
Didn't everybody?Mao liked him. Which says something about Nixon.
tarran | January 21, 2008, 5:18pm | #
I think Lamar is right, that Rudy never seriously wanted to win.My understanding is that his politicking has mainly consisted of shmoozing big-money donors.
I think he's thinking about his lobbying business. People wanting to get access to government officials will look at him and see someone who has access.
Rick Barton | January 21, 2008, 5:30pm | #
The neocoms are gonna have to try and find another puppet to get us tied up in us in foreign entanglements.VM | January 21, 2008, 5:38pm | #
Cesar - amen, brother! Rick - I heard the GOP considered HRC for that, but apparently, she's busy! :)VM | January 21, 2008, 6:07pm | #
Nixon was competent...yah right. and he had membership in the Howard Johnsons Points club.
Giuliani's popular with suburban & exurban NYers who like the idea that he cowed the city into submission.
Esteban | January 21, 2008, 6:13pm | #
Take a look at this video: http://www.spymac.com/details/?2331213Tom Walls | January 21, 2008, 6:19pm | #
I'm personally amazed at Rudy's drop here in Florida. You'd think the old northeasterners (the same ones who love Trump) would be coming out for him in droves. But most of them are lifelong Dems, so the only chance they'd get to vote for him would be in the general.Maybe Pat Buchanan can try and get their votes again in Palm Beach.
You guys aren't even thinking outside the box enough. After Obama finishes getting his screwin' from the Clintons, RP should call him up and say, "hey (fellow anti-war) dude, I've got the Libertarian Party nomination for the asking; keep your head down, your mouth shut, and watch and learn!" Yep, a Paul-Obama ticket might just k.o. the two welfare-warfare statist tickets and catapult a third party into the White House! Who knows, maybe Obama is rehabilitatable, you know. He's young enough and possibly impressionable. Perhaps Dr. Paul could show him the light over four years. Oh yeah, and "no extra charge", that might just finally dispel all of those "racist" attacks hurled at him. Yep, I can see it now.
NoStar | January 21, 2008, 6:34pm | #
For the purposes of a brokered convention, it may be benefitial for Rudy to actually win one.However, it is emotionally satisfying to see him fail.
John | January 21, 2008, 6:34pm | #
I read someplace that it was the Clintons that originally urged Obama to run for office in IL. Maybe that was BS, but if it isn't I would say to never underestimate a conniving, calculated plan by Billary.I'm still saying Clinton-Obama.
NoStar | January 21, 2008, 6:40pm | #
Remember those harmonius days when Barack and Hillary performed the "equal time" autopsy, I mean rebuttal of G.W.'s State of the Union address?Clinton helped make Obama the national star that he is. Politics makes strange bedfellows and estranged enemies as well.
Happy Jack | January 21, 2008, 6:52pm | #
I'm personally amazed at Rudy's drop here in Florida.I'm not. Once people saw how creepy he is in person, a drop was inevitable. Those fluff pieces on the hero of 9/11 couldn't hide the fact that the emperor is buck nekkid, and it ain't a pretty sight.
joe | January 21, 2008, 6:58pm | #
I'm personally amazed at Rudy's drop here in Florida.Siena College Research Institute. 1-14-17. 625 registered voters. MoE 3.9%. (December 2007 results)
McCain: 36 (15)
Giuliani: 24 (48)
Romney: 10 (7)
Yup, 24 points in five weeks is amazing.
First Little Pig | January 21, 2008, 7:01pm | #
While it is true that Clinton defeated Lazio rather than Rudy his numbers were plummeting.He had (and has) loads of negatives that ultimately turned people off. He ran on his presumed ability to turn NYC around but the means by which he did it (all the no tolerance stuff, the police brutality, his attacks and harassment on everyone who stood in his way, his back stabbing Bratton, his scandal-tainted cronies, his affair, his belittling people on the radio (that poor ferret guy anyone?), and his generally pugnaciousness proved simply unpalatable).
Even his once-popular acts (throwing Arafat out of the theater, cutting funding of the Brooklyn Museum over the elephant feces strew Madonna) started to look weird -- and a little dictatorial.
And don't forget: "It's Giuliani Time"
Wilkes&Freedom | January 21, 2008, 7:44pm | #
If Bill & wife had reproduced earlier, we'd have Hillary/Chelsea ticket.No Mas! No Mas! | January 21, 2008, 7:46pm | #
And the upside of all of this is that New Hampshire and Iowa can continue to disproportionately influence the nomination process. I was hoping Rudy would do well on Super Tuesday if nothing else than to stop the flow of earlier and earlier primaries. I'd say that the next cycle will see the first primary over a year before the general election, which means the candidates will start running for it next January. When we reach the point where candidates are lining up for the upcoming primaries while the general election of the previous cycle is still being campaigned for, have we violated some form of causality?joshua corning | January 21, 2008, 8:02pm | #
Thanks, Upstate, none of us knew that New York City didn't actually border Pennsylvania.Some of us do live in the west Joe and we do not, dick in hand, meticulously scan political maps of New England. Upstate makes a valid point not all of us were thinking about.
Tom Walls | January 21, 2008, 8:03pm | #
I just heard Thompson is pulling out of Thursday's debate in Boca Raton.Uh oh.
If he hadn't jumped in, he could have positioned himself to be McCain's VP. Or maybe he just made that deal.
joe | January 21, 2008, 8:10pm | #
New York isn't in New England, joshua.I take it back, Upstate. There are some really fucking stupid people who read this blog.
VM | January 21, 2008, 8:14pm | #
New York isn't in New England, joshua.much to the chagrin of Plattsburgh :)
but "upstate" reminds me of the Brighton/Pittsford (IIRC - Pitts something in Rochester area) people in college - ripped me from being from the midwest, but clamor these days to pretend they're "midwestern".
Calling New York a part of New England is like saying Virginia is in the "northeast".
Taktix® | January 21, 2008, 8:27pm | #
Calling New York a part of New England is like saying Virginia is in the "northeast"....or like saying Florida is part of "the modern world."
Lost_In_Translation | January 21, 2008, 8:34pm | #
Thompson pulling out of the debate. Methinks he'll be out of the race before February and with Team McCain before super tuesday. At that point, Romney and Huckabee are SOL.jkii | January 21, 2008, 8:47pm | #
...or like saying Florida is part of "the modern world."Taxit,
With some stipulations, you can still smoke a cigarette in a bar and ride motorcycle without a helmet in the state of Florida. Those freedoms are uncommon in "the modern world".
Mr. Nice Guy | January 21, 2008, 8:57pm | #
I think Rudy had and has every intention to win, he just ain't. I'm not sure it takes any rocket science: when was the last time that a pro-choice, pro-gay rights, pro-gun control candidate won the GOP nomination? I mean, unlike Romney Rudy did not just loudly proclaim the exact opposite of most the anti-GOP positions he had taken for the past two decades (and you get about zero points for integrity in a GOP nominating contest [remember when Bush, after losing NH to McCain, repackaged himself as a "reformer"? Hilarious, yes. Effective on GOP voters, double yes]).I think, sadly, that Romney has the race to lose. He has the money to be competitive everywhere (yes, much of it is his money, but what the hey?) and every other candidate has taken some position to piss off a very influential chunk of the GOP (Huckabee with the anti-tax crowd, McCain with the Minutemen, Rudy with the NRA and Pro-Lifers). Romney's positions are full of shit, but they are the shit that Republicans swoon for these days...
Roger | January 21, 2008, 9:06pm | #
Bah ha ha. No Dondero yet. $10 and a cheap bottle of red Bordeaux that he jumps ship to total Romney within the week. To use a Rittbergism, his "losertarian" candidate was a total failure just like his supporters.crimethink | January 21, 2008, 9:29pm | #
So, no one's liveblogging the BarackHussein/ChavezInAPantsSuit/BreckGirl Conflagration in Columbia tonight?Giuliani made the mistake of not trying to get early monentum especially in NH....his whole campaign has been to go balls to the wall in Florida and win it versus trying to win the early primaries.....bad mistake.....But I don't think the Paul people can be so cocky.....They couldn't even beat Romney in SC despite the fact Romney was dislike in SC because of his Mormonism....If he can only get less then 4 percent in the heart of the old Confederacy(where his newsletter scandel would have played to his advantage with the Archie Bunker GOP types), he may have probelms Super Tuesday
On the downside, Giuliani's collapse will strengthen Iowa's stranglehold on the primary process.
Nice Guy, just to follow up with what you wrote. You may have something there. The master manipulation Richard Nixon once said in 1988 I think that GOP presidential candidates have to run to their right in the primaries and to the middle during the general election. The GOP needs to figure out how to get the moderates and libertarian leaning folks motivated to do the grunt work and vote in the primaries instead of leaving it to the right wingers and Christian Right to monopolize the agenda in the primaries. Until they make their voices the dominate factor, the GOP will still be plagued with candidates having to throw red meat to the "true believers" and then they are forced afterwards in the general election to explain why they said this and that during the primary
You, who see a Clinton/Obama ticket, forget the words of Chris Rock - We will not see in our lifetime a black VP, because the first chance a black man gets he will assassinate the white president, go to jail and be treated as a hero by the overwhelmingly black prison population for putting a black man in power.
Jumbie | January 22, 2008, 12:06am | #
I've heard that Bush I and Reagan disliked each other too.Still, I have to say Clinton/ Obama sounds like a very unlikely ticket.
Where's Rudy? Even NY Times has him MIA. Forgot the html rule for links, sorry: http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/delegates/index.html
DavidS | January 22, 2008, 6:26am | #
You can't fault the optimism on the Lew Rockwell blog:McCain has a very soft 26 to Ron Paul's rock solid 6, according to Rasmussen.
When NYer's find out about McCain's horrendous record, those numbers will change fast.
That this would be the biggest upset of all time just makes it more irresistible.
Rudy's dead of course. Shhhh, don't tell him.
kwais | January 22, 2008, 7:16am | #
See, I always thought that Rudy's one and only purpose was to defeat Hillary in the NY Senate, having failed that, he is no use.He was always a socialist and a RINO, but if he had defeated Hillary's run for senate, he would have an honorable mention in history.
As he ran from that fight, he is a traitor and a coward and useless.
Having run from that fight and on top of that bing a candidate for president, and a gun grabber, he is beyond despicable.
If he does end up running against Hillary for President. I think I might just vote for Hitlery. I think that is the only condition I could ever vote for her.
Of course thereafter, I will join some militia in the revolution against her.
kwais, Giuliani was diagnosed with cancer at the time if the Hillary Senate race and had to bow out for his health.....Get your facts straight before you start accusing people of being a "coward"....You may dislike Giuliani but he is no coward. I know one of his former collegues that used to work with him in the DA office and I can assure you, anybody that goes after the Mafia in law enforcement is not a puss. As for a socialist, why don't you read Perry Anderson or New Left Review and see if you think Giuliani is a socialist in the eyes of actual Marxists.
Nick | January 22, 2008, 9:51am | #
Who has the best chance to win a brokered GOP convention?Also, does anyone think Obama and Hillary will be close enough after the primaries that their convention will be brokered as well? If that is the case, isn't it more likely that Obama wins all the Edwards delegates and takes it?
If the GOP convention is brokered, does the victor have any chance to win a general election against a Dem that wins their nomination outright? They'd have it used against them that not everyone loved them dearly, etc.
Which candidate has the most likely possibility of causing a civil war in this country or at least militia revolution? Hillary?
Law Nerd | January 22, 2008, 9:49pm | #
"As he ran from that fight, he is a traitor and a coward and useless."And he's missing some... equipment as a result of that too.