New at Reason
While the pundits focus on the battle for Pennsylvania, Jeff Taylor says that it is North Carolina that will make or break the Clinton campaign.
Comments to "New at Reason":
Obama (and the media) lowered expectations enough for Obama that we all expect him to lose by 10 points. Yet, just like Texas and Nevada, he might end up with more delegates. North Carolina should clinch it for him, but I still don't think the Hillary will drop.
On the other hand, if Obama wins PA (even by less than 1%) Hillary has to drop. That would also kill the Wright flap once and for all.
Adamness | March 31, 2008, 1:04pm | #
On the other hand, if Obama wins PA (even by less than 1%) Hillary has to drop.Yeah, but I'm not even sure she would with a PA loss. The delegate distribution will be close no matter who wins, with 70-90 delegates going to each candidate. Hillary would still be able to make a case (especially if she wins) that the momentum is on her side and she can still win with the superdelegates. She's said a few times she her no problem going right up to the convention.
That would also kill the Wright flap once and for all.
I don't think anything will kill that.
Brandybuck | March 31, 2008, 1:05pm | #
Hillary cannot drop out of the race now. She has staked everything on this. If necessary she will leap across a debate stage to claw his eyes out, but she will not drop out.A PA win would mean he appealed to white working class voters, the group the Wright flap was supposed to kill him with.
Pottsy | March 31, 2008, 1:29pm | #
She can't win NC. The rural and small towns she's campaigning in are heavily Republican, and we don't have open primaries here. The urban centers, like Raleigh-Durham are populated with the young and the well educated.Adamness | March 31, 2008, 1:37pm | #
A PA win would mean he appealed to white working class voters, the group the Wright flap was supposed to kill him with.Wait until the general.
I don't know, dey take dere bowlin' awful serious out dere in Allegheney County.
Adamness how do you honestly think "The jobs are not coming back, my friends" is going to play for McCain in PA and OH?
Adamness | March 31, 2008, 1:59pm | #
Adamness how do you honestly think "The jobs are not coming back, my friends" is going to play for McCain in PA and OH?I thought everyone liked 'straight talk?'
McCain can't get away with telling the country that our jobs are simply gone and not coming back. He has to balance it with saying we need new industry, and it will best come from all the 'green' crap that's suddenly popular. Besides, it's not like McCain will be running on that. He won't really be running on any domestic issue, and that alone will annoy a lot of people.
Still, Rev. Wright will not disappear after PA even if Obama wins. Maybe McCain won't play to it, but there are plenty of other Republican and conservative organizations who will bring it up.
Yeah joe, but he was running against a free trader. And I don't think he actually said that, IIRC he was very vague on NAFTA and talked about "fixing" it.
shrike | March 31, 2008, 2:17pm | #
This is the Hillary Clinton "surge".She will repeat the success of this surge often enough for it to seep into the collective mythology - thus making it true.
joe | March 31, 2008, 2:27pm | #
Interesting point made on kos: if Obama can eat into Clinton's lead to a considerable degree in Pennsylvania, she will have to dedicate money and time there, while he's working North Carolina and Indiana.Obama has a pretty good money lead on Clinton, so he can win a "war of attrition."
Morat20 | March 31, 2008, 4:09pm | #
Joe: From the reports I'm seeing, Clinton is practically broke. She's got some 8 million in debt, of her February haul only 11 million was primary money.Obama's got several times more cash on hand that she does. I'm starting to wonder if her "I'm staying in until August" is just a fundraising pitch so she can pay off campaign debts.
db | March 31, 2008, 6:15pm | #
I don't know, dey take dere bowlin' awful serious out dere in Allegheney County.Hey! I hardly ever bowl better than a 120. Of course I live in Beaver County. Town of Beaver. I love living in Beaver. I try to spend as much time here as possible.
p.s. And it's spelled "Allegheny."
p.p.s. And it's pronounced "Awwegany Cowny"