New at Reason
Reporting from the futuristic super-science year of 2007, Katherine Mangu-Ward wonders which of those incredible innovations we were supposed to have by now—underwater cities, jet packs—are ever going to come about.
Comments to "New at Reason":
Lord Jubjub | September 21, 2007, 11:16am | #
Between flying cars and 100-mph streets, what do you think the average lifespan of a human would be?ChicagoTom | September 21, 2007, 11:23am | #
What about that car that runs on water?I used to hear a lot about that, not so much anymore
Bergamot | September 21, 2007, 11:30am | #
Haven't you heard?Underwater Cities + Randian Objectivism = Bad Idea.
ed | September 21, 2007, 11:31am | #
What about that car that runs on water?We have those. They're called "boats".
J sub D | September 21, 2007, 11:31am | #
What about that car that runs on water?I used to hear a lot about that, not so much anymore
They were built, and marketed. The failed the profitabilty test. I'm too lazy to look up the details right now, but a club for these amphibious vehicle owners does exist.
SIV | September 21, 2007, 11:34am | #
Amphibious cars?Well if you were a libertarian you would know all about them.
kevrob | September 21, 2007, 11:36am | #
The Germans developed the Amphicar, based on a WWII military vehicle.Kevin
J sub D's Alter ego | September 21, 2007, 11:36am | #
What a crappy post! The spelling and non-use of italics to indicate a quote are completely unacceptable! You Suck!Randolph Carter | September 21, 2007, 11:40am | #
I think by "car that runs on water" he meant the car that splits water for energy and puts out oxygen as waste or something. A water-car instead of an internal-combustion car.So, I guess the real question is, where is my old-timey steampunk airship?
Seriously, predicting the future is an exercise fraught with peril. The most prescient was Arthur C. Clarke's prediction of the geosynchronous communications satellite.
Pro Libertate | September 21, 2007, 11:44am | #
Obviously, flying cars and 100-MPH city streets await an adequate AI that can drive our vehicles safely. I say we riot until all of the required technologies are made available.robc | September 21, 2007, 11:45am | #
The most prescient was Arthur C. Clarke's prediction of the geosynchronous communications satellite.Bah. Heinlein predicted waterbeds.
Niven/Pournelle predicted PDAs.
robc | September 21, 2007, 11:48am | #
PL,If we are going to riot, I want to hold out for Puppeteer Stepping Disks.
You know the pentagon has the technology and just hasnt released it.
ed | September 21, 2007, 11:49am | #
predicting the future is an exercise fraught with peril.Yep. That's why the worst sci-fi (especially cinematic endeavors) is that which relies most on technological instead of ideological themes. Especially now, special-effects-laden sci-fi cinema has a shelf life of about 3 years, after which it looks positively stupid (with a few fine exceptions).
J sub D | September 21, 2007, 11:55am | #
Heinlein predicted waterbeds.Niven/Pournelle predicted PDAs.
In the first chapter of the Foundation series, Hari Selden meets a young student and shows him calculations on his hand-held calculator.
IMHO, these don't evem compare with the impact of satellite TV.
They predicted a home computer that would fit in a single room in the 1960s. Now I can calculate pi to the billionth digit with my wristwatch. If you want to live in the future move to Australia.
Legate Damar | September 21, 2007, 12:04pm | #
ed,I agree. The best sci fi is not about futuristic sciences, it's about humanity's responses/adaptations to futuristic sciences. In the latter case, the actual science can be easily substituted.
Paul | September 21, 2007, 12:14pm | #
employees had brandy and smelling salts on hand to treat shoppers suffering from the shock of the new.In some ways, I so want those days back...
Khan Noonien Singh | September 21, 2007, 12:38pm | #
Ahem. It's "Khan", Shatner, my old friend.ed | September 21, 2007, 12:55pm | #
the actual science can be easily substituted.Right. Look at some of the classic Twilight Zone episodes. It's not about the gadgets.
ChrisO | September 21, 2007, 12:58pm | #
I thought this was a perceptive article. Katherine makes the point that jetpacks, flying and floating cars, and moving sidewalks already exist, but nobody really has much use for them after all. As to the moving sidewalks, are we Americans already a bunch of fatasses? The last thing we need is *assisted walking*...I do believe that "personal flight options" will become more common in the 21st Century, though the result will probably be very different than the flying bubble cars in The Jetsons. Companies are already working on air taxis, in order to bypass major airports and make better use of our drastically underused small airports and airfields.
edna | September 21, 2007, 1:01pm | #
Heinlein predicted waterbedsand more importantly, autocad. remember "drafting dan"?
Ska | September 21, 2007, 1:13pm | #
Bergamot -Bioshock came to mind immediately when the article discusses underwater dwellings...
French college student | September 21, 2007, 1:16pm | #
I say we riot until all of the required technologies are made available.Mais oui! C'est idee formidable!
J sub D | September 21, 2007, 1:16pm | #
Right. Look at some of the classic Twilight Zone episodes. It's not about the gadgets.The best speculative fiction on television, ever.
J sub D | September 21, 2007, 1:20pm | #
and more importantly, autocad. remember "drafting dan"?Good call, edna. The Door Into Summer, right?
Chosen One | September 21, 2007, 2:11pm | #
Master Pain! I thought you changed your name to Betty...I would settle for a blow-up doll that doesn't call me another man's name.
Eric the .5b | September 21, 2007, 2:41pm | #
I think by "car that runs on water" he meant the car that splits water for energy and puts out oxygen as waste or something. A water-car instead of an internal-combustion car.Well, that'd only require minor changes in the laws of physics.
Malto Dextrin | September 21, 2007, 2:48pm | #
Ahem. It's "Khan", Shatner, my old friend.Repeat after me: "Rich Corinthian leather."
J sub D | September 21, 2007, 3:21pm | #
Well, that'd only require minor changes in the laws of physics.Not really. Think controlled hydrogen fusion. But that may not be just around the corner.
Khan Noonien Singh | September 21, 2007, 4:36pm | #
It's soft Corinthian leather.Pro Libertate | September 21, 2007, 4:36pm | #
Controlled fusion really is right around the corner. No, really.J sub D | September 21, 2007, 5:12pm | #
Controlled fusion really is right around the corner. No, really.Controlled fusion is only 10 years away. It's been that way for the last 50 years.
I know how you guys feel. I've been expecting the eggheads to crack this nut since ~1967. Fuck a bunch of flying cars and cities in the clouds, give me cheap, clean, almost limitless energy any old time. Remember that cold fusion debacle? Didn't we really wnt it to be true? Weren't we really pissed of that these incompetent boobs got our hopes up, only to be dashed on the rocks? It's one of the many factors contributing to my skepticism.
Stevo Darkly | September 21, 2007, 5:16pm | #
SIV --Please don't link to Amanda Marcotte's Pandagon again.
It made me exceed my daily recommended allowance of Vitamin Dumb.
Pro Libertate | September 21, 2007, 5:47pm | #
There's always the Electron Pump.Colonel_Angus | September 21, 2007, 6:10pm | #
Flying Cars: I don't understand why more people don't get pilot licenses. It is not too expensive and does not take too much time. It would be much more convenient than relying on airlines all the time. Just rent an aircraft when you need it or get partial ownership of one and that is good enough.Instead I keep hearing about groups of "concerned citizens" rallying to close small general aviation airports, often private ones. For the children.
Mark Plus | September 21, 2007, 8:39pm | #
I wonder what happened to the space colonies, polyamorous sex, material abundance and radical life extension predicted to arrive by right about now.For example, refer to F.M. Esfandiary's predictions for that far off, mysterious year 2010 published back in 1981:
"Up-Wing Priorities" (PDF)
http://www.box.net/shared/static/ay9lub60ha.pdf
Manuel Garcia O'Kelly Davis | September 21, 2007, 11:48pm | #
"If you want to live in the future move to Australia.""You mean we're all going to become convicted criminals and be deported to someplace far away?"
Could be, cobber. You break rule, Authority deports you to Luna. And is getting harder and harder to avoid breaking rules.
Do this. Don't do that. Stay back in line. Where's tax receipt? Fill out form. Let's see license. Submit six copies. Exit only. No left turn. No right turn. Queue up and pay fine. Take back and get stamped. Drop dead -- but first get permit.
Mike Laursen | September 22, 2007, 2:14am | #
The future is only amazing to those who don't live in it.Disagree with you on that. We're living in the past's future right now and there's some really amazing stuff here. Like this astounding system of Internet tubes through which we are communicating.
Guy Montag | September 22, 2007, 8:32am | #
ChicagoTom,What about that car that runs on water?
I used to hear a lot about that, not so much anymore
I was surprised that the 'water powered engine' nonsense did not pop up during the latest, natural, price appreciation in the energy markets.
For some reason, organic hydrogen does not seem to get the same play. Maybe because it is so much more practical. I have been using it for decades and there is certainly no shortage of the stuff, other than the artificial ones that crop up.
We have lost confidence in our ability to project into the future more than a century or two, because things are changing so rapidly. If things continue to change at their current pace, perhaps we will have immortalized ourselves into pure information in 500 years. Who knows. So "hard" science fiction seems incredibly dated in just ten or twenty years -- just think how unconvincing the world of "Sandworms of Dune" seems now comepared to how fresh the world of "Dune" seemed when that book came out. All this reminds me of Damon Knight's comment on A.E. van Vogt: "After 10 thousand years of chaos, the hero drives down the street in a Studebaker."
Douglas Gray | September 22, 2007, 11:51pm | #
Some of the drug raids Radley Balko has been reporting on are reminicient of both "1984" and "A Clockword Orange".Recently, a lady in a wheel chair was tasered to death by cops; she was waving a hammer and a knife. Why didn't they just grab her wrists and squeeze?
A friend and I were just talking also about how Zimbabwe reminded us of the way things fell apart in "Atlas Shrugged". The capable people finally just quit and leave.
Mark Bahner | September 23, 2007, 12:26am | #
"Controlled fusion is only 10 years away. It's been that way for the last 50 years."The federal government's fusion research has killed fusion. It has turned fusion into a lifetime research prospect.
Look at the International Tokamak Experimental Reactor (ITER). I think the *earliest* date expected for completing construction is 2016. And then there will be 20 *years* of subsequent testing. Talk about boondoggles!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITER
Slocum | September 23, 2007, 12:30pm | #
Flying Cars: It is not too expensive and does not take too much time. It would be much more convenient than relying on airlines all the time.Airliners fly 3-4x faster than most single-engine private planes. Other than that, the main problem with making small planes routine, convenient transportation is weather. When you really need to get home, but there is a line of thunderstorms or icing conditions in the way -- it's just not fun. And there's not much high-tech, sci-fi solutions can do about thunderstorms and ice. Not until small, cheap, private airplanes fly at 35,000 feet, anyway.
Speaker to Animals | September 23, 2007, 11:36pm | #
The energy cost of operating a flying car will likely keep them MIA for quite a while.The book mentioned "The Shock of the Old" (Oxford University Press), by British historian David Edgerton, I don't think this fellow gives enough credence to what has been created. (Its like when you live in the mountains all the type, you get numbed to the spectacular views.)
Things I could not have imagined I would have here in 2007 back in 1975 (granted, this is in the United States):
* 2 computers in my house. With fast graphic displays.
* I would have to worry about viruses in my computers.
* A son that when he was 4 expected shows on broadcast TV to always have a rewind button. Then 10 years later -- they do (TiVO).
* Mountain Bikes that have hydraulic disk breaks and 27 speeds (3 x 9 gears) and shock absorbers. Giving the rider to go just about anywhere under human power.
* A complete blue print of the Human Genome downloaded on to computers.
* More different types of food in the grocery stores than can be eaten/tasted in a year. So much vast quantities of it managing obesity becomes a major problem.
* A human with prosthetic that can race nearly as fast as a standard human.
* The internet with access to more information resources than any library that existed in the world in 1970 (e.g., this summer I examined a satellite picture of the campsite we were going to be camping at for our summer vacation).
* Kids with cystic fibrosis routinely living past 20+ years old.
* My mother being 85 years old and swimming 5 days a week at an indoor pool facility.
* Microwave ovens that cook food in seconds to minutes. (Something that takes 5 minutes to warm seems like forever.)
* 24 hour news channels. Plus news on the internet.
* DVD movies that are so easy to pickup and use they begin to make the theater going experience
a bit old fashioned.
* Camping equipment that in 1975 would have seemed fit for an expedition on an alien planet.
* Small music players that are the size of a matchbox that can hold thousands and thousands of songs. (Remember those old 8 tracks?)
* Visual detection of planets around other star systems.
* Drugs of numerous types for many illnesses that were considered incurable.
* Cancer patients routinely surviving.
* A globally integrated economy that supplies goods and services with the "invisibility" similar to turning on a light switch -- its there so reliably and so often you begin to take it for granted.
All this an much more...