Green Shoots bustin' out all over

Tim Cavanaugh | May 21, 2009

From the rising of the sun until the going down thereof, the benefits of the economic rescue packages bring forth savory fruits in rightwiseness abundantly. Sing their praises:

Unemployment claims set a record, again!

Stocks, dollar, treasuries fall on concerns over U.S. creditworthiness!! *

Congressional Budget Office sees unemployment rising for at least another year!!!

Thirty-fourth bank failure of the year!!!!

Real estate rental market takes a beating that is somewhat less brutal than special enhanced beating suffered by sales market!!!!!

* Goldbugs, please tell us you told us so politely.

Comments

Progressive Libertarian|5.21.09 @ 9:37PM|#

All Bushes fault.
McCain would have been worse. The cancer would have killed him by now and PresiCUNT Palin would be carrying on the endless World War as she implemented a final solution to Gays and medical marijuana patients

nobody|5.21.09 @ 9:41PM|#

+1

Jordan|5.21.09 @ 9:43PM|#

Unemployment even worse than the doomsday scenario Obama outlined if Congress didn't pass his stimulus plan.

ChicagoActuary|5.21.09 @ 9:49PM|#

This post is great for those of us who agree on the shitness of bailoutapalooza to smirk and feel snide. But we did just read a day or two ago that only some tiny percentage of the stimulus money had actually been spent. I'd like (and would like this site) to convince stimulus fans that this is the wrong course, but this isn't gonna do it.

If you'd like to post these links and write about the paralysis in private markets due to historic levels of uncertainty introduced by unprecedented and unpredictible government interference, that might be a more effective (and truthful) approach.

Mad Max|5.21.09 @ 9:53PM|#

'* Goldbugs, please tell us you told us so politely.'

Actually, I would prefer to be in the position of admitting I was wrong, and that U.S. creditworthiness inspired confidence in foreign markets.

Apparently, I won't get to experience the pleasures of being proven wrong. Damn.

Mad Max|5.21.09 @ 9:58PM|#

ChicagoActuary,

I understand your position to be that the evidence does not refute the concept of a bailout, because the money hasn't been spent in time to avert the threatened catastrophe.

Thus, bailout fans could simply say that the only problem with this particular bailout is that it hasn't been implemented rapidly enough.

Have I correctly understood your position?

robc|5.21.09 @ 9:59PM|#

From the goldbug link:

Fiat currencies don't float. They sink at varying rates

Im going to have to use that.

alan|5.21.09 @ 10:20PM|#

But we did just read a day or two ago that only some tiny percentage of the stimulus money had actually been spent. I'd like (and would like this site) to convince stimulus fans that this is the wrong course, but this isn't gonna do it.


In order for that to be the case, we would have to forget all the other Keynesian stimuli that created the bubble economy and also the Keynesian policies that occurred in 2008, from the tax rebate of last year (already ancient history) to encourage us to Spend! Spend! Spend!, the first bailout and arm twisting shenanigans of last Spring, and the almighty TARP which not only would keep our civilization from imploding, but would also keep the gravy train of consumer lending and over priced real estate going.

I predict that in 2031 someone will win the Nobel Prize to a person who titles their magnus opus, Shit's Gotta Give: The First Law of Economics and The Worthlessnes of Paradox of Thrift When Capital is Depleted.

alan|5.21.09 @ 10:23PM|#

I predict that in 2031 someone will win the Nobel Prize to a person who titles their magnus opus,

Fuck! This thing is worthless for editing.

ChicagoActuary|5.21.09 @ 10:24PM|#

MadMax - correct.

Alan - huh? In order for what to be the case? You lost me.

Mad Max|5.21.09 @ 10:27PM|#

So the bailout fanboys will simply argue that the only reason it didn't work was because the Right People Weren't In Charge (TM)?

ChicagoActuary|5.21.09 @ 10:39PM|#

Max - if you're still directing that at me:

The message I want to convey to stimulus fans is that "stimulus packages" are not simply ineffectual, but counterproductive. But I can't make that argument by one day saying that the stimulus can't be having an effect because it's moving too slowly, then the next apparently saying that the (barely implemented) stimulus is creating a huge drag on the economy.

There are things related to the stimulus that are dragging the economy down, but it has much more to do with instilling uncertainty in private transactions than in any real counterproductive effect of the stimulus spending (at this point, since so little has actually been spent).

Once the stimulus money has been largely spent, then it will be time to point out the negative effects that spending had on the economy.

ChicagoActuary|5.21.09 @ 10:52PM|#

Max - and yes, Keynsians could simply take this as further evidence for the urgency with which the stimulus dollars must be spent.

Tim Cavanaugh|5.21.09 @ 10:53PM|#

ChicagoActuary, I said "economic rescue packages," not "stimulus package." The $789 billion stimulus package of January 2009 has only been partly spent, but several previous tranches, including most of the original TARP funding and the Fannie/Freddie bailout in the middle of last year, have already been spent.

I still give more blame to the Bush than to the Obama Administration, if that sweetens the case at all.

alan|5.21.09 @ 11:02PM|#

Thank you Tim, you explained it better than I could. I still have my Ned Flander finger waving in the air to communicate that very effectively.

ChicagoActuary|5.21.09 @ 11:05PM|#

Tim - mea culpa. I need a scorecard. Or to go to bed.

¢|5.21.09 @ 11:21PM|#

tranches

Stop saying that.

hmm|5.21.09 @ 11:41PM|#

Is that sarcasm? That could have been tranched sarcasm.

|5.22.09 @ 12:09AM|#

I understand your position to be that the evidence does not refute the concept of a bailout, because the money hasn't been spent in time to avert the threatened catastrophe.

My take on it is that the bailout, among many other things Obama and Congress have done, has helped introduce the paralysis that ChicagoActuary has noted, while so far not much of the bailout money has been spent, thus destroying the alleged effectiveness that was promised if it were spent quickly.

I say "alleged", because as more of that money gets spent, the more the economy will suffer as resources get diverted from the private to the (highly inefficient) public sector.

LarryA|5.22.09 @ 12:17AM|#

OTOH firearms are selling like hotcakes. I wonder if the new CAFE standards are supposed to create the impression that Obama will ban SUVs, thus rescuing the auto manufacturers?

robc|5.22.09 @ 7:08AM|#

firearms are selling like hotcakes.

Hotcakes, however, not so much.

flix|5.22.09 @ 7:50AM|#

#

It's a pity that even its proponents characterize the Austrian recipee as passive. It's only passive as far as government is concerned... private actors actually have to DO a lot of stuff to restructure, adapt, invest, liquidate and rebuild.

No entrepreneur ever made money doing nothing, "laissez faire" is an admonition to government... but the rest of us actually have to "faire" a lot.

goldbug|5.22.09 @ 7:53AM|#

German firm plans gold ATMs

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page34?oid=83555&sn=Detail

The ATMs will dispense 1-gram, 5-gram and 10-gram pieces of gold as well as Krugerrand gold coins. Each ATM can hold up to 1,500 pieces, he said.

|5.22.09 @ 9:33AM|#

Beats the crap out of me. Anybody out there want to lend me $5000?

|5.22.09 @ 9:46AM|#

Periodically, I have been posting my increasing investment allocation to gold, and the reasons therefor.

So there. I told you so.

Basically, I took a leaf from George Soros, who made his money by looking for countries likely to fuck up their currencies, and betting against them.

What I think we have seen this week is that the central banks, which have been manipulating the gold market with massive short positions, have finally cracked. If the next maturity date for futures has the same extraordinarily high rate of people holding their contracts for delivery as the last one (15% v. the usual 1%), then their ability to manipulate gold will be well and truly broken.

The dollar as a reserve currency is done. The next move, I think, is that the Chinese force a move to an international "Special Drawing Right" as the reserve currency. It may be backed by a basket of currencies (unlikely, the last time that was tried it didn't work), or it could be tied to gold. They may have telegraphed this move by recommending that the IMF return its gold reserves to their countries of origin.

|5.22.09 @ 9:46AM|#

All herald the arrival of president shitstain's,err, Obama's depression!

|5.22.09 @ 9:53AM|#

We need a massive divestment of the government. Draconian spending cuts and tax moratoriums for consumers and for business.

|5.22.09 @ 10:23AM|#

Stocks and Treasuries fell, and the dollar dropped to a four-month low on speculation the U.S. government's creditworthiness is deteriorating.

Or, perhaps, it is those "speculators" [speculation speculators; get it?] have become convinced that the U S government has finally been completely overrun by moronic lunatics.

ajacksonian|5.22.09 @ 10:39AM|#

So even with not much of the stimulus having been spent, the Administration's predictions were for lessining unemployment, not greater: they knew the rate of expenditure which is built into the prediction. Thus the stimulus is not working according to their model. That makes the stimulus 'shovel ready' as a concept: bury that baby and don't do anything like it until there is a better model of such things.

Gold doesn't lose value although the price changes.

Ammo has a constant future expended value, no matter what the price, until it is expended.

An economy, once expended, is 'shovel ready'.

|5.22.09 @ 10:50AM|#

"All Bushes fault.
McCain would have been worse. The cancer would have killed him by now and PresiCUNT Palin would be carrying on the endless World War as she implemented a final solution to Gays and medical marijuana patients"

I swear I can almost feel the spittle flying right through the keyboard. I bet you're loads of fun at parties with your 16 hour long diatribes about Bushitler.

|5.22.09 @ 11:08AM|#

But we did just read a day or two ago that only some tiny percentage of the stimulus money had actually been spent.

It doesn't matter if it could have theoretically worked, CA. It matters if it works in the real world. And the reason this one is so slow is because its just not possible to jam that much cash through government structures that fast.

You go to the polls with the stimulus package you've got, not the one you wish you had.

If we were going to run a crushing deficit and destroy the currency to try to minimize this recession, it would have been much better to do it with a big honking tax cut.

Russ 2000|5.22.09 @ 11:57AM|#

I still give more blame to the Bush than to the Obama Administration, if that sweetens the case at all.

Why? The packages Bush proposed to Congress were destined to be defeated until Obama suspended his campaign for a few days to twist some Democratic arms. (Then McCain did, for what reason I don't know since few if any GOP reps changed their votes.)

|5.22.09 @ 12:11PM|#

" the next apparently saying that the (barely implemented) stimulus is creating a huge drag on the economy."

The prospect of borrowing a trillion dollars that we don't have is creating a drag on the economy because it scares the crap out of the people who need to start spending. Even though it probably makes no sense to not spend your money now before hyperinflation gets it, and let the inflation take care of your loans until, one day, you can finally pay off your mortgage by skipping your starbucks for a day.

Dark Eden,
I think that post was parody. Of course, parody of the moonbat left is always a tricky business, so I could be wrong. Like Jim Carey said as the Riddler... "Was that over the top? I can never tell..."

Sean W. Malone|5.22.09 @ 6:22PM|#

Moptop:

"let the inflation take care of your loans until, one day, you can finally pay off your mortgage by skipping your starbucks for a day."

Largely what I'm planning on doing (in principle) with my student loans ;) And PS. I don't even care if it makes me a hypocrite, if the government decides to bailout student loans, I'm getting me a big ol' piece of that. Anymore, I feel like the best thing I can do is, extremely unfortunately, to just say "fuck America", and let it implode and try to profit as much as I can... all the while screaming into the wind about how bad an idea everything is.

Bad ideas seem to be the only ideas in play anymore, and I'd rather not be hosed by them.

wayne|5.22.09 @ 7:56PM|#

I told you so, and I took my own advice. The good news is, it's not too late to buy some gold and silver.

|5.23.09 @ 2:00AM|#

"Progressive Libertarian"

An oxymoron or a simple one, you decide.